Fragile peace on the land of ancient Nubia
Negotiations between Sudan and South Sudan continued in the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa; they should solve the problem of borders between the two states. This agreement should resolve another important issue between Khartoum and Juba - the problem of transporting oil from South Sudan through the territory of Northern Sudan. South Sudan gained independence from Sudan even 9 July 2011 of the year, but so far the issue of the borders and transit of oil violates stability in this region. Negotiations alternate border clashes, airstrikes, support for the insurgency on both sides. The UN Security Council gave Khartoum and Juba time before 22 September to conclude an agreement. If the border treaty is not signed, then the world community can impose various kinds of economic sanctions.prehistory
The prerequisites of the conflict between the North and the South of Sudan were laid during the times of the Arab and Turkish domination, and then aggravated by the British domination. Ancient Kush (Nubia) was formed under the influence of Egyptian civilization and cultures of Black Africa. In the first millennium of our era this territory was Christianized, several Christian Nubian states appeared. From the middle of the 7 century, Arabic, Islamic expansion begins from Egypt. Gradually, the north and west of Sudan were Islamized and Arabized. The territory of Nubia-Sudan was cut off from Byzantium and the influence of the Christian world. However, for centuries the Nubians restrained Islamic expansion and retained their Christianity, and this continued until the end of the Middle Ages. At the same time, the process of gradual movement of Arab Muslim settlements to the south continued. The population was actively mixed, as a rule, dominated by the religion of the newcomers. By the beginning of the 16 century, all of Nubia came under the control of Islamic rulers, and the territory of the ancient kingdom became part of the Arab and Islamic world.
In the 19 century, Sudan fell under the rule of Egypt and then the British Empire. British colonialists to strengthen their power pursued a policy in line with the principle of "divide and rule." They encouraged the anti-Arab and anti-Islamic sentiments of the Christian and pagan population of South Sudan. After the collapse of the colonial system, the Western powers laid a terrible "mine" under the political structure of Africa - the borders of the new states, including Sudan, were artificially made and did not take into account ethnic, religious differences. As a result, in Sudan, like in a number of other states, this led to an almost uninterrupted civil war.
It should be noted, and such a feature of the situation in the region, as racism. Arabs traditionally consider themselves to be a “white”, superior race. For them, the negros are second-and-third-class people, especially Christians and pagans.
Sudan gained independence in the 1956 year, since then Arabic-speaking, Islamic political elite has dominated it. Muslims refused to fulfill promises about the creation of a federal state and began to pursue a policy of Islamization and Arabization of the Negro south. Southerners officers started a rebellion, so the first civil war began, which lasted until the 1972 year. Southerners leaders demanded that they be granted the right to create regional autonomy (minimum program) or an independent state (maximum program). The war led to the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people, the other hundreds of thousands became refugees. In the autumn of 1971, with the mediation of Ethiopia, a peace agreement was concluded. The Addis Ababa Agreement guaranteed autonomy for the three provinces of South Sudan, and English received the status of a regional language in the south. The South was granted the right to create a 12 ths case, Khartoum announced an amnesty for the rebels. In 1972, the agreement entered into force.
Jafar Mohammed Nimeyri (President of Sudan in 1971 - 1985) initially pursued a policy based on the concept of "Arab socialism", relied on Sudanese communists and was the chairman of the only party in the country - the Sudanese Socialist Union. This made it possible to preserve peace in the country for a decade. But then Nimeiri went over to the side of Islamists: he declared Sudan an Islamic republic, proclaimed Islam a priority in all spheres of life, introduced sharia law. In fact, in 1983-1985. in the country was "Islamic revolution". The government included activists of the Muslim Brotherhood organization. The Democratic Republic of Sudan was transformed into the Islamic Republic of Sudan. Nimeiri declared himself "the imam of the Muslims and the lord of the faithful" (however, he did not stay long in lordship - he was overthrown in 1985), the Sudanese Socialist Union was dissolved, its leadership was arrested. After several years of political struggle, in 1989, Omar Hassan Ahmed al-Bashir seized power. He continued the course of Islamization of the country. Prior to the beginning of the 21st, al-Bashir relied on the National Islamic Front, which was led by Hasan Abdullah Turabi, who was famous for his radical views.
This led to the fact that the Southerners renewed the struggle for independence. In 1983, the People’s Liberation Army of Sudan was created, led by Colonel John Garang. The movement began the struggle against Islamic domination in Sudan and was able to extend its influence to large parts of South Sudan. The Garang army was supported by Ethiopia and Uganda. Thus began the Second Civil War in Sudan (1983 of the year - 2005). This war was even more bloodshed compared to the first conflict. Acts of genocide, massacres and expulsions of the civilian population, which were accompanied by famine and epidemic diseases, have become commonplace for the country. An estimated 2001 year in the Second Civil War killed up to 2 million people (mostly civilians), several million more became refugees, tens of thousands of people were enslaved and sold.
The peculiarity of the conflict between the North and the South was not only its ethnic and religious factors, but the problem of "black gold". The main hydrocarbon reserves are located in the South and Khartoum was not going to lose its main source of income. It is clear that the interests of the Western powers were connected with oil. Initially, the United States was loyal to Khartoum. However, when in 1990-1991. Sudan supported the regime of Saddam Hussein in Iraq, the United States changed its position. The Bill Clinton administration banned US investment in Sudan and included the country in a list of rogue states. In addition, Washington was greatly annoyed by the active cooperation of Khartoum with Beijing. As part of the strategy to combat Chinese influence in Africa, the United States supported the policy of the collapse of Sudan. This has destroyed communications already built by China.
After Khartoum was unable to crush the uprising in the South by force, he had to go to a peace agreement. In the period from 2002 to 2004, negotiations were conducted between representatives of the Sudanese People’s Liberation Army and Khartoum. Large collisions could be avoided, but some skirmishes continued. At the beginning of 2005, in Nairobi, Sud Ossetia’s Vice President Ali Osman Mahammad Taha and the rebel leader John Garang signed a peace agreement. The treaty established a transitional period for the status of South Sudan for 6 years, after which a referendum on the independence of the southern provinces was to be held. Oil revenues were equally divided between North and South. John Garang became the leader of the autonomous South and one of two vice-presidents of Sudan. 30 July 2005, his helicopter crashed while returning from Uganda: according to the official version, it was an accident.
Almost immediately between Juba and Khartoum disagreements began. The United Nations, in order to prevent the start of a new war, brought peacekeeping and humanitarian forces into the region. In South Sudan, its own management system was established. The United States supported the idea of holding a referendum on the independence of the South. 9 — 16 January 2011 passed a referendum on the creation of an independent state in southern Sudan. At the end of January, preliminary results were announced - more than 98% of Southerners favored independence. 9 July 2011 was proclaimed the creation of the Republic of South Sudan (RSU).
It must be said that the legitimate withdrawal of South Sudan from a single state is a very dangerous precedent. This practice, if desired, can be organized in a number of countries. Hidden regional separatism is present in Ukraine: a split along the East-West line and the Crimean problem. There is he in Russia. The Russian "fifth column" with the full support of the West and the East (Islamic institutions and structures) is working to separate the "Muslim regions" of the North Caucasus; separatist movements are being created in Siberia, the Far East and other areas of the country. In Europe, a similar problem can be found in Romania, Belgium, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom. In North America - in Canada (Quebec problem).
The rapid recognition of South Sudan by the world community only confirms these concerns. In particular, Somalia has actually been two decades apart as it has actually collapsed into several states. By African standards, Puntland and Somaliland can be considered completely ordinary, by no means worse than South Sudan, states. However, they have not been recognized recently, either by the West or by neighboring African countries doing a great deal to restore the unity of Somalia.
Apparently, the Chinese factor played an important role in the recognition by the West of the collapse of Sudan. On the eve of the collapse of Sudan, two thirds of its exports accounted for the PRC. China owned 40% of the largest Sudanese oil company. Beijing did not hinder the collapse of Sudan, he prefers not to interfere in the internal problems of African countries (rather than captivating their regimes), maintaining good relations with Khartoum and quickly establishing contacts with Juba.
Conflict between the Republic of South Sudan and the Republic of Sudan
The division of Sudan into two states and the formation of the RSU did not put an end to the contradictions between the Muslim north and the Christian south. The issues of ownership of several disputed areas and the transit of oil from South Sudan through the territory of Northern Sudan were not resolved. The issue of “black gold” is very important for Khartoum and Juba: the RS economy (75% of foreign exchange earnings) and RSU (98%) are too closely tied to oil exports. The parties simply have no choice; the political survival of the regimes is at stake. These problems led to a series of new conflicts. In fact, the war began to exhaust each other.
Khartoum accused Juba of having begun to take over 90% of all oil produced in disputed territories. In response, RS began to take away part of the “black gold” of South Sudan, which goes through pipelines through its territory (the RSU does not have access to the sea and its transport system), which adversely affects the economy of the South. As a result, the 2005 agreement on revenue sharing for the sale of oil, in practice, was not actually respected by the parties. In addition, Khartoum supported pro-Islamic and separatist forces in the South, and Juba assisted the forces that fought against government forces in the North, the Darfur region, and the states of Southern Kordofan and Blue Nil. Thus, the rebels were fighting in Khartoum in Southern Kordofan. This province remained part of the RS, and many communities remained in it, which during the civil war acted on the side of the southerners. In the summer of 2011, the situation reached an armed conflict between the Sudanese armed forces and the troops of the RSU.
March 26, 2012 between the states began a new open armed conflict. Juba accused Khartoum of attacking the southern Sudanese city of Jau by the North Sudanese Air Force. On April 10, the South Sudanese military entered the city of Heglig in the state of Southern Kordofan, which is the center of one of the largest oil fields in the RS. There were several clashes between the troops of the two states. Khartoum announced a general mobilization and sent a complaint about the actions of the southerners to the UN Security Council. Since the beginning of 2012, there have been several statements by Juba and Khartoum about the possibility of a new war. On April 16, 2012, the Sudanese parliament adopted a statement according to which, the RSE was declared an enemy state. On April 22, South Sudanese troops under pressure from the Armed Forces of Northern Sudan were withdrawn from Heglig. The main role in the military victory of the RS was played by superiority in the air and armored vehicles (in particular, Khartoum first used Chinese in these battles Tanks Tour 96). Because of these conflicts, the economies of the two countries were on the verge of collapse. The Republic of Sudan is living in austerity regimes. The population is dissatisfied with the increase in prices for essential goods, food, inflation. In a number of cities protests were recorded.
At the end of May, 2012, in the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa, with the mediation of the African Union, negotiations began between Khartoum and Juba. However, they were difficult, since Khartoum itself can not abandon the oil fields, which are located in disputed territories. This could lead to the collapse of the regime of Omar al-Bashir. On July 2, fighting resumed in the state of Blue Nile, where insurgents from the Sudanese People’s Liberation Movement - North (SNOD-C) attacked the positions of government troops south of the city of Kurmuk near the Ethiopian border. There is no detailed information about the situation in this state, since Khartoum has closed the entrance to it. It is known that in the state of Blue Nile battles have been going on since September 2011. According to the UN, more than 200 thousand people have already escaped from the states of Blue Nile and Southern Kordofan to the RSU and Ethiopia. The July talks between Khartoum and Juba ended in vain. July 21 Juba again accused Khartoum of hitting the planes of the North Sudanese Air Force on South Sudan territory. The RSU refused to participate in “bilateral direct negotiations” in the Ethiopian capital. Khartoum refused to acknowledge the fact of the bombing of South Sudan, stating that the air strike had been inflicted on the Darfur rebels in Northern Sudan.
On July 23, the South Sudanese government proposed to Khartoum a draft agreement that dealt with the distribution of oil revenues and the problem of the Abyei’s disputed territory. The government of Northern Sudan stated that the proposal was “not serious”.
Only at the beginning of September a compromise agreement was adopted: according to it, the cost of transporting the “black gold” of South Sudan through the territory of Northern Sudan will be 9,48 dollars per barrel. In addition, Juba agreed to pay Khartoum monetary compensation in the amount of 3 billion dollars. This agreement will be valid for three years, during which time the South Sudanese government plans to build an oil pipeline to the sea through Kenyan territory. Whether this agreement will be executed - the future will show.
9 July 2012 in South Sudan marked the anniversary of independence. However, the year of freedom did not bring 8 million inhabitants of the RSU long-awaited peace and prosperity. Prices for the year of independence soared by 120%, inflation was 19%. Almost half of the population lives below the poverty line, although the country is rich in natural resources - oil, iron ore, gold, silver, copper, zinc, tungsten, forest resources, etc. South Sudan has good potential in the field of agricultural development, hydropower, while the country lives on the verge of starvation. According to some reports, 80% of the population of South Sudan can neither read nor write. The health care system is at an extremely low level of development. The country has not developed production and transport infrastructure. The sad social and economic situation of the country is exacerbated by a high level of corruption. The continuation of the conflict with Northern Sudan may lead to new demographic and economic losses, further impoverishment of the population of both republics. Only reasonable and good-neighborly cooperation can bring ancient Nubia-Sudan out of the current impasse. However, whether Khartoum and Juba are capable of a cardinal turn in a relationship, only time will tell. Much depends on the position of the world community.
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