Military Review

"First Swallow": An expert commented on gas supplies to Hungary bypassing Ukraine

73

The contract signed by Hungary with Gazprom for the supply of gas bypassing the Ukrainian GTS is only "the first sign", other countries can also use other options for obtaining gas. This is the conclusion reached by the head of the Ukrainian analytical center "Third Sector" Andrey Zolotarev.


According to the Ukrainian expert, Hungary is the first country to sign a direct contract with Gazprom for the supply of gas bypassing Ukraine, but not the last. Zolotarev assumes that other countries can take advantage of the opportunity to receive gas directly, without the participation of Ukraine. In this regard, gas transit will decline and Ukraine will lose its status as a gas transit country.

I think the Hungarians are the first swallow. And then we still have to face a situation where our transit potential will decline due to the fact that other options will be used, bypass gas pipelines, including Nord Stream 2.

- he said.

On the eve of Hungary signed a long-term contract with Gazprom for the supply of gas in the amount of 4,5 billion cubic meters per year. At the same time, gas will bypass Ukraine through Serbia (3,5 billion) and Austria (1 billion). This decision drew criticism from Kiev, which even threatened Budapest to appeal to the European Commission with a complaint about Hungary's actions, as well as to break off economic cooperation. In turn, Hungary accused Ukraine of interfering in the country's internal affairs.

Note that Ukraine has no leverage on Hungary, but the Hungarians have the opposite. Budapest has already put a spoke in Kiev's wheels on Ukraine's path to NATO, blocking some initiatives and is not going to stop.
73 comments
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  1. ODERVIT
    ODERVIT 28 September 2021 12: 37
    +33
    Good development of events.
    This has never happened and now ...
    1. Vend
      Vend 28 September 2021 12: 44
      +19
      Quote: ODERVIT
      Good development of events.
      This has never happened and now ...

      The Hungarians have one more "ball" in the gates of Ukraine, this is Transcarpathia.
      1. Dr. Mon
        Dr. Mon 28 September 2021 16: 15
        +9
        Quote: Wend
        Quote: ODERVIT
        Good development of events.
        This has never happened and now ...

        The Hungarians have one more "ball" in the gates of Ukraine, this is Transcarpathia.

        Once such a thing has gone, now just have time to take the ball out of the outskirts of the outskirts .. Let the drain go and every man for himself .. How Russia built the joint venture in time and with such difficulties, as they knew what would happen .. The vidomoles became silent and jumped from the cold already in silence. ...
      2. seregatara1969
        seregatara1969 29 September 2021 07: 49
        0
        Hungary now sells gas at market prices, buying at average. Benefit of fsem on the face
    2. den3080
      den3080 28 September 2021 13: 01
      +27
      Quote: ODERVIT
      Good development of events.
      This has never happened and now ...

      The endless hereditary (from crouchuk to zeklone) Selyukov's stupidity and greed of those in power on the territory of 404 will not lead to this.
      1. Seryoga64
        Seryoga64 28 September 2021 13: 07
        +2
        Quote: den3080
        404 territories will not lead to this yet.

        Yes, and so gradually everyone turns away from them
      2. Silver bullet
        Silver bullet 28 September 2021 13: 12
        +21
        Put the self-flowing dumplings back into your mouth immediately! Otherwise, we'll sit on our ass and kick our legs!
        We all owe it! We will not work anyway!
        This is their essence and way of life.
        1. figwam
          figwam 28 September 2021 14: 29
          +3
          Quote: Silver bullet
          Put the self-flowing dumplings back into your mouth immediately!

          It used to be good
    3. knn54
      knn54 28 September 2021 14: 12
      +2
      The Ukrainian authorities were not lucky that in 1935 the "World League of Sexual Reforms" did not become.
      They would definitely "help".
    4. Fantazer911
      Fantazer911 28 September 2021 22: 37
      +1
      No wonder they say, don't spit in the well, the time will come and you will have to drink water from this well! hi
  2. pyagomail.ru
    pyagomail.ru 28 September 2021 12: 38
    +30
    In principle, who is stopping Russia after 2024 to start slowly repairing a gas pipe near the Ukrainian border, stopping for this reason the pumping of gas through it? I admit that the Europeans are periodically hinted about this, especially since the pipe is really old.
    1. Sidor Amenpodestovich
      Sidor Amenpodestovich 28 September 2021 12: 48
      +20
      Or conclude separate contracts for the supply of gas through Ukraine.
      Those who want cheaper buys through SP-2. Whoever wants to go through Ukraine buys more expensively.
      As they say, any whim for your money.
      1. den3080
        den3080 28 September 2021 13: 10
        +3
        Quote: Sydor Amenpospestovich
        Or conclude separate contracts for the supply of gas through Ukraine.
        Those who want cheaper buys through SP-2. Whoever wants to go through Ukraine buys more expensively.
        As they say, any whim for your money.

        It turns out more expensive anyway, after 404. According to SP-2, you don't have to pay so much for transit, as I understand it.
        1. Sidor Amenpodestovich
          Sidor Amenpodestovich 28 September 2021 13: 28
          +4
          Quote: den3080
          It turns out more expensive as it is, after 404. According to SP-2, you don't have to pay so much for transit, as I understand it.

          Then I do not understand why the Europeans are so afraid of the termination of transit through Ukraine. After all, it depends only on them whether it will persist or not.
          If they themselves do not want to pay more for the sake of maintaining transit, then what has Russia to do with it? How do they justify the fact that it is Russia who should pay for transit at a loss, if they do not want to buy themselves at a loss?
          1. alexey alexeyev_4
            alexey alexeyev_4 28 September 2021 14: 00
            0
            Yes, this is about underground storage facilities. In / in Ukraine, giant UGS facilities owned by Western companies. To pump gas directly from Russia or from sp-2 across Europe, agree two big differences
            1. Sidor Amenpodestovich
              Sidor Amenpodestovich 28 September 2021 14: 08
              +3
              Quote: Aleksey Alekseev_4
              There are two big differences to pump gas directly from Russia or from sp-2 across Europe

              So the Ukrainian GTS will not go anywhere after 2024. If they want to use it, let them use it. Nobody forbids them.
            2. Brturin
              Brturin 28 September 2021 14: 35
              +1
              Quote: Aleksey Alekseev_4
              from sp-2 across Europe agree two big differences

              What's the difference??? - as a result, the gas should end up with a consumer who is "across all of Europe" and wherever it is stored, he should get to him when he needs it, or he will still drive it "across all of Europe" from distant UGS facilities, or take it by his side ... and it’s somehow safer nearby ... last year the meaning was that UGS facilities in Europe were packed, but now ... they’re incomplete and stored somewhere on the side ...
              and the times are now ... then politics, then nature mother
              Another earthquake occurred on the morning of September 23rd. This time the tremors were palpable and frightened the residents of Ternopil, Khmelnytsky, Vinnytsia and Chernivtsi regions. According to the Main Center for Special Control, an earthquake at 06:17 with an epicenter in the Chertkov area of ​​the Ternopil region, at a depth of 6 kilometers. Its magnitude was 4,3 on the Richter scale.
              https://eadaily.com/ru/news/2021/09/23/zemletryasenie-na-zapade-ukrainy-odni-ispugalis-drugie-ne-uspeli
            3. dedusik
              dedusik 28 September 2021 17: 59
              -1
              So, you cannot pump gas through SP-2 into these storage facilities, there is no reverse pipe, and, unfortunately, only Ukraine can pump our gas there. winked
          2. den3080
            den3080 28 September 2021 14: 01
            +6
            Quote: Sydor Amenpospestovich
            Quote: den3080
            It turns out more expensive as it is, after 404. According to SP-2, you don't have to pay so much for transit, as I understand it.

            Then I do not understand why the Europeans are so afraid of the termination of transit through Ukraine. After all, it depends only on them whether it will persist or not.
            If they themselves do not want to pay more for the sake of maintaining transit, then what has Russia to do with it? How do they justify the fact that it is Russia who should pay for transit at a loss, if they do not want to buy themselves at a loss?

            They are not afraid of the word at all, from the point of view of gas supplies.
            They hold on to a purely political decision + some kind of financing of the puppet Russophobic regime 404, as if at the expense of Russia.
            Although, as far as I understand, they still pay for this transit out of their own pocket. But maybe it's a little more complicated there, it's not for nothing that the Europeans flatly refuse to accept gas on the eastern border of 404.
            After all, then the Svidomites will simply directly begin to blackmail them themselves and all this cheating construction will fall down - there will be no justification in front of their own population, there will simply be a tsunami of popular European hatred against the Svidomites and European taxis themselves can be demolished by this wave.
            1. Sidor Amenpodestovich
              Sidor Amenpodestovich 28 September 2021 14: 09
              +2
              And this is the correct answer!
            2. Andrey Chizhevsky
              Andrey Chizhevsky 29 September 2021 08: 29
              0
              As for the tsunami of popular anger, this is unlikely ... There are few real violent ... And ukro-Nazis and svidomites cannot be Maidan without dough .. Their dream is to steal as much as possible on "nenko" in order to then dump overseas .. And there sitting on the banks of the St. Lawrence River to suffer to snot about the same "nenko - Ukraine - but with a Canadian (or some other) passport in the back pocket of his trousers.
          3. El Chuvachino
            El Chuvachino 28 September 2021 15: 35
            +4
            Quote: Sidor Amenpodestovich
            Then I do not understand why the Europeans are so afraid of the termination of transit through Ukraine.

            We shit - that's the main reason
      2. Brturin
        Brturin 28 September 2021 13: 25
        +1
        Quote: Sidor Amenpodestovich
        Or conclude separate contracts for the supply of gas through Ukraine.

        This is their long-standing idea ... 2021
        Theses of Yu. Vitrenko: the volumes that are now going through Ukraine should be transferred to contracts with European companies for very long-term prospects; we must get guarantees that transit through Ukraine will be preserved through contracts with European companies; we must receive gas at the border of Russia and Ukraine and we will sell it later https://neftegaz.ru/news/politics/697273-khotim-garantii-tranzita-naftogaz-nastaivaet-chtoby-gazprom-prodaval-gaz-na-granitse-rossii -i-ukrain /

        it's early ...
        “Changing the delivery point for gas to eastern Ukraine by European companies is a commercial matter. Therefore, this should be discussed by the companies themselves. But we believe that it can be, and there should be an opportunity for the implementation of such an idea, ”S.Berger, spokeswoman for the EU Energy Commissioner Gerhard Oettinger, sensationally stated on 22 May 2014 at a briefing at the European Commission. https://neftegaz.ru/news/gas/243741-es-soglasen-pokupat-gaz-na-granitse-rossii-i-ukrainy/

        How many years have passed and somehow nobody ...
      3. Aleks2048
        Aleks2048 28 September 2021 13: 33
        0
        You can even try (I don’t know how technically and economically feasible) gas under long-term contracts to start up on sp2, and at exchange prices through Ukraine, and even with their markup.
      4. Andrey Chizhevsky
        Andrey Chizhevsky 29 September 2021 08: 22
        0
        Even if gas is pumped through the Ukrainian gas transportation system for free, at the exit it will cost a lot of money for the EU. They steal - with ... and on a gigantic scale ..
    2. alexey alexeyev_4
      alexey alexeyev_4 28 September 2021 13: 53
      +1
      Don't tell me. 15 years ago, the pipe was being repaired. There was a witness myself. I drove through the Belgorod region and stopped near the dug pipe. I talked with the workers. The repair of the main gas pipeline. Dozens of meters of damaged pipes were cut out and new ones welded. The newest insulation. So, unlike the Ukrainians, the pipe was modernized. and renovated
      1. pyagomail.ru
        pyagomail.ru 28 September 2021 18: 15
        +1
        Quote: Aleksey Alekseev_4
        15 years ago the pipe was repaired

        For fifteen years! The repairs must be started immediately!
  3. tralflot1832
    tralflot1832 28 September 2021 12: 39
    0
    Nothing terrible for Ukraine. Another 4-5 billion cubic meters remained for Hungary through Ukraine. Last year Hungary burned 8,6 billion cubic meters of our gas. And Ukraine itself produces 13 billion cubic meters.
    1. 41 REGION
      41 REGION 28 September 2021 12: 47
      +6
      Quote: tralflot1832
      Nothing terrible for Ukraine

      They can start jumping. wink
      1. tihonmarine
        tihonmarine 28 September 2021 13: 12
        +2
        Quote: 41 REGION
        They can start jumping.

        Yes, as 30 years ago, they started jumping, and they are jumping without stopping.
        1. 41 REGION
          41 REGION 28 September 2021 13: 56
          0
          Quote: tihonmarine
          Yes, as 30 years ago, they started jumping, and they are jumping without stopping.

          Probably warming up request
          1. tihonmarine
            tihonmarine 28 September 2021 15: 05
            +1
            Quote: 41 REGION
            Probably warming up

            But who will understand them, only when the pan on the head is jumping, it does not add heat.
    2. Flooding
      Flooding 28 September 2021 12: 49
      +1
      Quote: tralflot1832
      Another 4-5 billion cubic meters remained for Hungary through Ukraine. Last year Hungary burned 8,6 billion cubic meters of our gas

      Other Hungarian gas importers can follow the example of MVM
      and then there will be generally "nothing terrible for Ukraine"
      1. tralflot1832
        tralflot1832 28 September 2021 12: 57
        +3
        Hungary can increase exports to 6,5 billion through Serbia on the Turkish Stream.
    3. Ramzaj99
      Ramzaj99 28 September 2021 17: 45
      0
      Quote: tralflot1832
      Nothing terrible for Ukraine.

      The fact of the matter is that experts in the gas sector in Ukraine are close to panic. The fact is that in order for the Ukrainian GTS to collapse and the entire economy behind it, Russia does not even need to completely block transit. It is enough to reduce it to a value where the profit is completely spent on the costs of servicing this very GTS, and there the amounts are, to put it mildly, not small. Everything is similar and goes. The volume was reduced there by a billion, there by a couple, to Europe it was reduced, and soon it will be significantly reduced when the gas flows through the SP-2, and when the SP-2 starts working in full force and a couple of small European countries switch to the Turkish Stream, Ukraine's gas transportation system it will be cheaper to cut into metal than to maintain it in working order. And this is not a metaphor, the entire GTS will operate at a loss.
  4. Cowbra
    Cowbra 28 September 2021 12: 46
    +23
    Most of all, I am freaked out that they whine about gas transit - and no one mentioned that the MAIN item of income on transit at the time of the collapse of the Union they had - the transit of CARGOES !!! Freight, fuck! Everything in the Russian Federation went mainly through the Odessa port. Then it began - at first they began to steal uncontrollably. You just look at the documents - you went through Odessa - without opening it - there is a 5 to 10% shortage. Then the same thing happened at the customs offices for trucks. Then they smashed their piece of iron into smithereens. Then Maidan - and in general, not a single cargo will be driven through the Wild Field.
    In their minds - they sit, spit on the ceiling and cut coupons from the transit of the Russian Federation-Europe, there and back, and China-Europe. In general, without doing anything - with such a geographical location, if they had not gouged cars and railways and began to steal wagons - the whole country could live without working.
    1. Trapp1st
      Trapp1st 28 September 2021 12: 50
      +3
      the whole country could live without working.
      They do so.
    2. Seryoga64
      Seryoga64 28 September 2021 13: 13
      -1
      Quote: Cowbra
      and no one mentioned that the MAIN item of income on transit at the time of the collapse of the Union they had - the transit of CARGOES !!!

      Like the Tribals
    3. tihonmarine
      tihonmarine 28 September 2021 13: 16
      +4
      Quote: Cowbra
      In general, without doing anything - with such a geographical location, if they had not gouged cars and railways and began to steal wagons - the whole country could live without working.

      There is nothing you can do about it - "someone likes the priest, and someone also likes the pop."
  5. Tests
    Tests 28 September 2021 12: 48
    +7
    Hungary can remember Ukraine in the Rada adopted a law on language. How many thousand people have received Hungarian passports in Ukraine since 2014? ... And who is building a nuclear power plant in Hungary? How much does the nuclear power industry of Hungary give, as a percentage, of the total volume of electricity produced in the country? Ukraine has something to think about ...
    1. Arctic
      Arctic 28 September 2021 13: 01
      +5
      Ukraine has something to think about ...
      There, unfortunately, there is nothing to think about ...
      1. tihonmarine
        tihonmarine 28 September 2021 13: 17
        +1
        Quote: Arctic
        Ukraine has something to think about ...

        Eh, but there would be someone, and there would be something.
    2. Seryoga64
      Seryoga64 28 September 2021 13: 14
      -1
      Quote: Tests
      Ukraine has something to think about ...

      How? They have not been doing this kind of work for more than 30 years.
  6. svp67
    svp67 28 September 2021 12: 59
    +3
    Note that Ukraine has no leverage on Hungary.
    Well, how is it that Ukraine has no levers of pressure? They will begin to oppress the Hungarian diaspora again ...
    1. Seryoga64
      Seryoga64 28 September 2021 13: 16
      -1
      Quote: svp67
      They will begin to oppress the Hungarian diaspora again ...

      They will receive it in full. Hungary is a member of NATO and will not be registered with the junta
      1. svp67
        svp67 28 September 2021 13: 41
        +1
        Quote: Seryoga64
        They will receive it in full.

        We still haven't received it. Hungary SAMA has to fight it
        Quote: Seryoga64
        Hungary is a member of NATO and will not be certified with the junta

        And what does she do as a member. All oppression takes place on the territory of Ukraine and here Hungary's "membership" does not help much.
        1. Seryoga64
          Seryoga64 28 September 2021 13: 44
          -4
          Quote: svp67
          We still haven't received it.

          So the junta stopped oppressing
          All harassment takes place on the territory of Ukraine

          So they will make it so that it will no longer be the territory of the urk.
          1. svp67
            svp67 28 September 2021 13: 50
            +1
            Quote: Seryoga64
            So the junta stopped oppressing

            What has the language law abolished? Did you release the arrested leaders? Allowed Hungarian passports?
            Quote: Seryoga64
            So they will make it so that it will no longer be the territory of the urk.

            For now, they will make "a little colorful revolution in Budapest" sooner. Soros will pay
            1. Seryoga64
              Seryoga64 28 September 2021 13: 57
              -6
              Quote: svp67
              For now, they will make "a little colorful revolution in Budapest" sooner. Soros will pay

              Yes, not one Soros is now behind the urka.inu and won't lift a finger
              1. svp67
                svp67 28 September 2021 14: 02
                +1
                Quote: Seryoga64
                Yes, not one Soros is now behind the urka.inu and won't lift a finger

                Yeah ... and where in Ukraine is the city of Budapest located?
                1. Seryoga64
                  Seryoga64 28 September 2021 14: 08
                  -5
                  Quote: svp67
                  Yeah ... and where in Ukraine is the city of Budapest located?

                  And why then does Soros care for them? You said yourself
                  Until they make it faster
                  1. svp67
                    svp67 28 September 2021 16: 29
                    +1
                    Soros cares about Hungary, from where he was driven, but he dreams of returning ... Homeland, however
    2. tihonmarine
      tihonmarine 28 September 2021 13: 18
      +4
      Quote: svp67
      Well, how is it that Ukraine has no levers of pressure? They will begin to oppress the Hungarian diaspora again ...

      Well, in the matter of oppression, they are notable masters.
  7. CommanderDIVA
    CommanderDIVA 28 September 2021 13: 09
    +1
    "Note that Ukraine has no leverage on Hungary" - the author does not know the real situation, about 200000 people live in Ukraine who consider Hungarian their native language and many of them have two passports of Ukraine and Hungary, they mostly live on the border with Hungary, in 2014-2016 the 128th mountain infantry brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was created to operate on the border with Hungary in the aggravation of the situation and preserve the territorial integrity of Ukraine, so that 200000 hostages from the Ukronationalists is a significant lever of pressure on the Hungarians
    1. Seryoga64
      Seryoga64 28 September 2021 13: 55
      -1
      Quote: CommanderDIVA
      about 200000 people live in Ukraine, who consider Hungarian their mother tongue and many of them have two passports of Ukraine and Hungary,

      As an option
      These 200000 declare their autonomy. The 128th Mining Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine enters the territory of the autonomy with a punitive action as in Donbass. Then Hungary introduces its troops to protect its citizens.
      Will urka.ina butt with a member of NATO? So they will still be left without one piece of territory.
      Well this is an option
      1. isv000
        isv000 28 September 2021 17: 27
        +3
        Quote: Seryoga64
        Will urka.ina butt with a member of NATO? So they will still be left without one piece of territory.
        Well this is an option

        From that moment on, the lesson will begin to tear to pieces, maybe this moment is waiting for the GDP to write out the Southeast outright ...
  8. HAM
    HAM 28 September 2021 13: 09
    +5
    No matter how much the rope twists, and the end will be ... well, you understand what this is about ...
    Wait, Ukraine will also complain to Strasbourg that the army has nothing to support ... the YOK transit ...
    1. Silver bullet
      Silver bullet 28 September 2021 13: 17
      +1
      As they say, here are the European values. The Hungarians were the first to put their leather sword on the Ukrainian gas transportation system, the German, Austrian and others are still ahead.
  9. Eug
    Eug 28 September 2021 13: 18
    +1
    I would like to hear Vitrenko's comment on this issue.
    1. Luminman
      Luminman 28 September 2021 13: 57
      +1
      I would like to hear Vitrenko's comment

      He has the same funny comments as Kuleba!
      You can listen!
  10. rocket757
    rocket757 28 September 2021 13: 48
    +2
    "First Swallow": An expert commented on gas supplies to Hungary bypassing Ukraine
    Come on ... Hungarians, and since the white crow is in that motley flock, while others walk together in formation or along their own roads / paths, which is also a rarity
  11. Xlor
    Xlor 28 September 2021 13: 48
    0
    This decision drew criticism from Kiev, which even threatened Budapest

    According to the old Ukrainian habit, they will make shit under the door ...
  12. pomor23
    pomor23 28 September 2021 13: 50
    +2
    The clown and the Nazis are beginning to reap the benefits of Svidomo, hydration and independence. ))) Soon it will be - Oh, not a jump, that ... frozen! ))
  13. gerome
    gerome 28 September 2021 14: 38
    +3
    The anti-Russian course, which Ukraine took long before 2014, is becoming more and more expensive for Ukraine-not-Russia. The history of the Mazepys does not teach anything, only greed, rudeness, arrogance, groveling and arrogance ...
  14. Evil 55
    Evil 55 28 September 2021 14: 43
    +1
    And now the chaotic renegotiation of contracts for the supply of gas bypassing UKRALINA will begin. It is cheaper and more reliable ...
  15. sen
    sen 28 September 2021 15: 10
    +1
    Note that Ukraine does not have any leverage on Hungary, but the Hungarians do the opposite. Budapest has already put a spoke in Kiev's wheels on Ukraine's path to NATO, blocking some initiatives and is not going to stop

    And what Ukraine was counting on, infringing on the rights of the Hungarians on its territory.
  16. Artyom1979
    Artyom1979 28 September 2021 18: 27
    0
    Soon Ukraine will buy Russian gas from Hungary, that's all.
  17. hohohol
    hohohol 28 September 2021 20: 06
    -1
    This decision drew criticism from Kiev, which even threatened Budapest to appeal to the European Commission with a complaint about Hungary's actions.

    Idioty, Russian gas, Hungary as the buyer, what does Ukraine have to do with it? Yes, if they want, they will stretch a gas pipe through the Moon, who can stop them?
  18. zenion
    zenion 28 September 2021 20: 29
    0
    Ukraine cannot be bypassed, they can be robbed.
  19. riwas
    riwas 29 September 2021 07: 15
    +1
    The contract signed by Hungary with Gazprom for the supply of gas bypassing the Ukrainian GTS is only "the first sign", other countries can also use other options for obtaining gas.

    So the Turkish gas pipeline will soon start operating at full capacity, gas is cheaper than through Ukraine - where will they go?
  20. Wolf
    Wolf 29 September 2021 11: 10
    +1
    Viktor Orban is a prominent political figure. He is a patriot of his people, he did not let Hungary pass many EU laws that could harm the traditional peculiarity of the people, he put the bank in place and disciplined, wants to increase the birth rate in Hungary, economically strengthened the side, est daring to say NO to EU and the USA.
    In my opinion, they themselves are an independent and brave politician in Europe, to this a patriot and a socialist and an Estonian will not write yet.
    It is necessary to look at what he is doing.
  21. TermNachTer
    TermNachTer 29 September 2021 15: 26
    0
    Hungarians were not borzels, because they received gas through Banderland. Now they will become bolder, the Transcarpathian issue will be pedaling hard.
  22. ermak124.0
    ermak124.0 30 September 2021 08: 05
    0
    Are not afraid of words at all, in terms of gas supplies ...
    Well, after all, the stupidest linguistic construction, why did many cling to it? request