(Un) needed Checkmate: who will buy the new Russian fighter
Photo: infonavigator.com.ua
Expected surprise
Officially presented at the last MAKS air show Checkmate (now the designation Su-75 is already firmly entrenched behind it) has every chance of becoming the main Russian novelty in the field of military aviation in recent years. Now they often talk about the two-seater Su-57, as well as a new generation strategic bomber. But these machines will not appear soon, even in the prototype version. At the same time, Checkmate already exists, at least as a demonstrator: initially it was assumed that the car shown at MAKS was just a mock-up, but this, apparently, does not correspond to reality.
The characteristics of the car were announced at the presentation, and we will not touch on them again. We only note that conceptually the aircraft is a conventional, less expensive analogue of the Su-57, built on a new base. The machine has one engine and is made according to the normal aerodynamic configuration with a V-shaped tail.
Instead of two engines, as on the Su-57, they decided to limit themselves to one. Apparently with an eye on the F-35. Inside the fuselage there are three compartments for the placement of weapons: the main one and two side ones. Two side missiles are designed for air-to-air missiles. Basically, three air-to-air missiles or two air-to-surface missiles can be deployed.
One of the reasons why it is difficult to talk about the real characteristics of the machine is the modular principle. Simply put, the "filling" can vary depending on the requirements of the customer.
Photo: infonavigator.com.ua
In the service of the videoconferencing
The aircraft was initially positioned as an export one, but it is seen simply as a kind of "trick". The combat aircraft market is very narrow, while the competition is extremely high. If you look at the new programs of promising combat aircraft, you will notice that almost all of them were created with the expectation of domestic needs: export is most often viewed as an option.
And although many states of the world are involved in the F-35 program, it was born, first of all, as an element of the rearmament of the American army (and at once the Air Force, Navy and the USMC). If we look at the Su-57 or the Chinese J-20, we will see that these machines, most likely, did not find a single foreign client at all. The older Eurofighter Typhoon of the fourth generation outside the EU and Great Britain (the creators of the machine) is relatively massively exploited only by the Saudis, who do not have their own developed defense industry. The recently successful Dassault Rafale stands out a little against the general background. But even now, France operates more of these machines than all other buyers combined: a total of about 140 combat aircraft.
Photo by wikipedia.org
Was the Su-75 created for the needs of the Aerospace Forces? The very fact of possible deliveries of a new vehicle to the army was not denied. At the same time, it becomes more and more obvious that the Armed Forces will become its main buyer.
This is indirectly confirmed by the recent statement of Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov.
“The plans for the future state armaments program will consider the possibility of acquiring it,” he said at the Tyumen Oil and Gas Forum.
We are talking about the state armaments program for 2024-2033.
Borisov noted that the presence of only one engine causes the Ministry of Defense to be wary in terms of reliability requirements. This is somewhat strange, considering that modern single-engine cars are practically not inferior in terms of reliability to twin-engine ones. On the other hand, this applies primarily to the United States, which actually have engines of the corresponding reliability (and characteristics).
Checkmate and export
And yet it is obvious that the spectacular name (translated from English - "Checkmate"), the presentation video, and the presentation itself are designed for a foreign buyer. According to Yuri Borisov, the demand on the international market for the latest Russian fighter is estimated at 300 aircraft.
“The aircraft will primarily be oriented towards African countries, India and Vietnam. The demand for these aircraft is quite high and is estimated at at least 300 aircraft in the near future, ”he said at the last MAKS.
The official noted that Russia has an anchor customer for the new aircraft. Moreover, allegedly “for him it is done».
Photo: twitter.com/200_zoka
However, time passed, and foreign buyers did not show up. "No", - said Dmitry Shugaev, head of the Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation, on the sidelines of the WEF, answering the question of whether there are foreign applications for Checkmate.
Obviously, it is too early to draw conclusions: the aircraft does not exist either in the serial or in the pre-production version. Will Sukhoi be able to interest clients in something in the future? According to some reports, the Checkmate fighter can get up to three different export versions, which is logical given the initially declared modularity. This can increase interest in him.
The main trump card should be the price of the novelty: at least, such a conclusion suggests itself from the official statements. According to the head of Rostec, Sergei Chemezov, the plane will cost $ 25-30 million.
It is difficult to say where this figure came from and how exactly it was calculated. In simple terms, modern fighters have not cost so much on the world market for a long time. The most striking example is India, which recently acquired French Rafale for $ 200 million (!) Per plane.
Several years ago, experts calculated the price of one Russian Su-35 sold to China. The result was $ 104 million for the fighter. The price of the less advanced Su-30MKI fighter, indicated in open sources, is about 83 million. But the Rafale, the Su-35, and the Su-30MKI are machines of the past, fourth generation. That is, with a high degree of probability, the fifth generation fighter, built using stealth technology, will be even more expensive.
The fact that the Su-75 has one engine instead of two (as is the case with the above-mentioned machines) does not change much: modern aviation systems include a lot of expensive electronics, complex systems and subsystems. The engine itself no longer plays such a big role in the nominal price: this has a greater effect on the cost of operating the fighter.
The only reasonable explanation seems to be that 25-30 million is the “internal” Checkmate price for Russian videoconferencing systems. This, of course, raises uncomfortable questions, but all other options are generally difficult to consider seriously.
Photo: UACRussia / youtube.com
So we are back where we started. The Su-75 is, first of all, a "status project", which in theory can find its application in the Russian Aerospace Forces. Export deliveries cannot be ruled out either, but the declared number of 300 aircraft looks exaggerated.
The plane will not be "light" (in the classical sense) or "budgetary". And it is unlikely to become widespread. But whether it will surpass in terms of price / combat effectiveness the already existing in serial form of the Su-57 is another question. Unfortunately, it is still impossible to answer it, since the programs are at fundamentally different stages of implementation.
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