Has the decision to finalize the Russian aviation industry at the highest levels? About the elimination of our national ability to design and produce world-class aircraft, outstanding products that would be economically feasible for linking our colossal and poorly populated spaces that make up the seventh part of world land?
In a slightly disguised form, the death sentence of the aviation industry is set out in a draft state program published last week by the Ministry of Industry and TradeDevelopment of the aviation industry "for 2013 – 2025 years».
Reading the draft state program should inevitably cause an attack of happiness in anyone.
In the best traditions of bureaucratic narration, the reader of the program is encouraged that its “implementation will contribute to the development” of everything and everything, everything in our aviation will be even better in this very best of the worlds. Not only numerous improvements will occur, but also hundreds of breakthroughs, and as a result, the global aviation market will continue to be conquered by Russia to the shame of Boeing, Airbus, Bombardier and Embrayer, as well as the Chinese who have risen to this point.
Over the 13 years of the state program, the Ministry of Industry and Trade of Russia promises, having spent just 13 billion budget dollars, to sell thousands of domestic civil aircraft: 893 Dry Superjet (SSJ – 100) and 960 MS – 21 units as well as several hundred transport aircraft, primarily IL – 476 and An – 70.
What kind of death sentence? - Anyone will say, including a member of the government, and the president, turning over an almost 400 –page program. This is a breakthrough, and not even getting up from his knees and not subsequent trampolining, but an explosive development in its pure form!
As a cure for premature euphoria, I would recommend an even more exciting reading of previous strategic documents on the development of the aviation industry, approved by the government at the request of the Ministry of Industry and Trade ten and seven years ago.
But first I will describe the state of affairs in our aviation industry at the moment, which is shown by the actual results of the implementation of the previous fundamental strategies.
Almost 90% (ninety!) Of all traffic this year is carried out by Russian airlines already on foreign-made aircraft. Last year, the entire 11 domestic aircraft were manufactured, most of which are not subject to normal operation.
However, let a high official say about the situation - Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Nikolay Patrushev. Here is his assessment of a year ago in an interview with the Izvestia newspaper, which he gave immediately after the meeting of the Security Council on the aviation industry: “The production volumes of civilian aircraft are single. The domestic market of aviation technology for the domestic industry is largely lost ... ".
That is, as a result of the previous activities of the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the Russian aircraft market was handed over and fully divided between Boeing, Airbus, Bombardier and Embryer, and the aircraft from China, which almost became out of phase with us from a non-aviation world aviation power, will begin to penetrate our market .
Actually, this should be an analysis of the results of the implementation of previous strategic documents and complete, if not for the complete and absolutely expected failure of the initially unpromising marketing, technical and economic Superjet and the government canceling Medvedev’s import duties on importing foreign regional aircraft to Russia last week - with wide-body “the question is closed” in favor of a foreign manufacturer five years ago.
Finally, to complete the picture, immediately after joining the WTO in August, the leaders of the country suddenly suddenly began talking about the need to “develop the domestic aircraft industry” through the introduction of ... screwdriver assembly of foreign aircraft.
And now it makes sense to read the promises that we all generously fed in the previous strategic documents of the Ministry of Industry and Trade.
Here is the federal target program “Development of Russian civil aviation technology on 2002 - 2010 years and for the period up to 2015”: “The Program’s goal is to fundamentally change the strategic competitive position of the civil sector of the aviation industry of Russia, which is to create on its basis a new global aviation industry center for 2015, at least 5 per cent of the world market for sales of civil aviation equipment ... The implementation of the Program’s activities will allow for annual sales of Russian-made long-haul and regional aircraft to the 2015 year in the amount of 95 - 100 units. ”
The performance has even exceeded.
The new world center of aircraft construction has arisen, and the most powerful one, though not in Russia, but in China, but it has appeared the same. And not 5, but all 95% of the market, albeit only the Russian one, and not the world one, was conquered! True, not by domestic, but by foreign aircraft manufacturers - but they were conquered! And not only conquered, but also carefully, for decades to come, divided!
For completeness, you can also read the Aviation Industry Development Strategy for the period up to 2005 approved in 2015 year. According to her, of course, by now, there has been a "return to the world market", and we are already entering the production of "hundreds of civilian aircraft per year."
In general, the insane idea-fix of all our industrial and aviation chiefs from 2002 of the year is to conquer the world market, giving their own market to foreign aircraft manufacturers.
Funny people. Who will let them into a foreign market, if they passed theirs? If this key moment, it turns out, is not understood by them, then all these puffy strategies and state programs are not worth a penny. Or is everything understood and deliberately deliberately? As one expert said, after reading in the text of the state program, the ranting about the conquests of the world market: “Either mentally retarded, or they lie, and therefore scoundrels”.
However, under the implementation of all these fantastic works over the past 10 years, at least ten billion dollars of budget funds were directly consumed. And in the next 13 years - another 13 billion. And the plan, obviously, is to master exactly one billion dollars a year in budget - to support my pants ...
Obviously, neither on the security councils nor on other high meetings has there been any assessment of this fundamental sabotage and failure, and probably will not. And the Audit Chamber is unlikely to find time to conduct an audit of efficiency, and even more so a strategic audit that reveals a failure with initial goals and mechanisms of implementation in the fundamental decisions on the aviation industry.
So why now and now not to offer the storytellers from the Ministry of Industry and Trade - right by the anniversary of Vladimir Vladimirovich - the next volumes of non-scientific fiction?
Here they take and offer.
What does the country do this time for the next 13 years?
A few more billion dollars to invest in the initially dead-end and unsaleable Dry Superjet (SSJ) is in the fabulous language of the Ministry of Industry and Trade called by the 2025 year “sell the 893 of the aircraft” (note, not 800, not 900, but 893! !) - and to invest even more into the yet non-existent and initially failing MC-21 in all respects, a kind of second edition of the Superjet. Well, and a little less to invest in hundreds of equally dead-end transport workers who do not have any prospects, but unlike new models for the exact opposite reason — if the first “innovative” super-duper, then the latter are hopelessly outdated since the Soviet period: 1960 – ies IL – 476 (76) and 1980 – x - An – 70.
That's the whole essence of the draft state program "Development of the aviation industry" for 2013 – 2025 years. " Two fantasy civilian remake and two all have already shown and proven transport starodela.
And this makes it possible to assert that behind the aircraft part of the state program project there are not state interests, but the interests of two commercial clans, which are the real customers of the state program.
The obvious and undisputed leader of the first clan, the author of the Superjet, and now also the second Superjet in the form of a paper MS-21, is Mikhail Aslanovich Pogosyan, president of the UAC - United Aircraft Building Corporation.
The secret of the second clan lies in an absolutely unexpected revival of the IL-76 theme, which in its “deep modification” IL-76MD-90 (aka IL-476), according to its lobbyists, “is a completely new aircraft”.
In aviation circles, they even talk about the emergence behind this swift invasion of the second Pogosyan, the younger Il-476 rejuvenated grandfather, who is fully capable of using the first Pogosyan himself.
This second Poghosyan is Viktor Vladimirovich Livanov - the most experienced (1943 year of birth) official from the aviation industry, General Director of JSC "Il" - OJSC "Aviation Complex named after. SV Ilyushin ”and concurrently the chief designer Il – 476, until last year - vice-president of the UAC, Pogosyan’s deputy for transport aviation, a figure widely known not only for his ability, filling up one after another design projects (for example MTS, Il – 112 and Il-114), to receive for this the highest state awards, but also for their outstanding lobbying abilities.
In addition, Viktor Livanov is not just the father of the current Minister of Education and Science Dmitry Livanov.
He is also the son-in-law (the husband of the elder sister) of the current vice-premier Dmitry Rogozin, who oversees the defense industry today, and in it the military and military transport aviation, and with them the KLA. It is interesting, by the way, that in V. 2001, Viktor Vladimirovich became a doctor of philosophy at the Academy of Information Sciences in Brussels, and Dmitriy Olegovich served as an ambassador to NATO for three years in Brussels - their unselfish love for the capital of NATO gives them extra strength to help NATO create its military base in Ulyanovsk.
The Pogosyan clan and the successfully rising Rogozin – Livanov clan are the real customers of the new state program.
By the way, with military aircraft in fact, we are even worse. It is enough to point out that since 2020, Oboronexport will practically have nothing to export - the PAK FA, even if it is produced, will not be bought, and the promising lightweight 5 generation fighter that could produce an MIG will not, as the MIG has been almost completely destroyed by Dry Poghosian through UAC Poghosian.
However, in view of the appearance in the sky of liquidators of the Russian aviation industry of a new star in the form of a Rogozin-Livanov couple, it is better not to criticize Pogosyan, it’s even dangerous, because before the Russian president places order in this vital industry for the country, it will not work for the Russian aviation industry, but on the ambitions of the second clan Rogozin – Livanov.
So, we have two mutually complementary phenomena: superjetism and patriotism. This is the method of final liquidation of the Russian aircraft industry.
On the one hand, waving super-duper jets of all stripes. On the other hand, for traditionalists and anti-superjewers, calls for reliance on the good old Soviet.
As a result, billions of dollars can be spent on research and development projects alone.
... It is possible and necessary to continue to analyze the Ministry of Industry draft state program on the aviation industry in detail. The most corrosive can find on the Internet a dozen references to good-quality discussions.
Also, at the moment, our Development Movement is preparing public hearings on the project, during which each of the parties and positions will have the opportunity to fully speak out.
But the essence of what is happening, I think, is understandable.
Mockingly sounding in the name of the state program "development" in fact covers up the deliberate refusal of high aviation industry officials from the status of Russia as a world aviation power and surrender of aviation sovereignty through eventually leaving to the diverter aviation industry.
By the way, the analysis of the draft state program on the aviation industry is a great opportunity to study the state of government in general.
To miss such a state program can not be criminal.
It is advisable for the country's leadership to define the situation in the aviation industry as an emergency and proceed to a forced change in the situation.
What should be done?
The first. Return the Russian and Eurasian (Customs Union, SES and CIS) Russian market. To adopt a presidential decree on the plan for the release of aircraft technology in the Russian Federation on 2013 - 2030. with the plan attached by year and in pieces on two pages, no more, and designation of the person responsible for the implementation of the plan and the penalties for failure and rewarding for victory.
The second. Urgently create the Ministry of Aviation, and close the UAC as an irresponsible “lining” on the development of budget funds. In the Ministry of Administration combine administration and aviation industry and all aviation activities.
The main task of Minavia is to return its market and prepare a pragmatic breakthrough, the creation of a new Russian aviation.
Pogosyan and the emerging second “Poghosian” in the form of Rogozin – Livanov will be limited to private topics, respectively, by heavy maneuverable Sukhoi aviation and the development of new transport aviation under the auspices of Ilyushin. Not only the two, but Pogosyan’s one as the main aviation industry, the country will no longer withstand.
Third. To finalize our (Development Movement) project of the Aviation Doctrine of Russia in tough discussions of real professionals in the aviation industry and aviation of Russia and the world, specialists in related fields, fundamental and applied science, defense and management, and then adopt the Aviation Doctrine and convert it to the format of the new aviation industry development program and aviation.
We have reached that line, the red line, when the old planes will not help us any more and will not be saved by the superjet “innovations” of the screwdriver assembly. At stake is our engineering and production capacity.
Who are the authors and performers of the previous program? Who are the authors and customers of the current?
Authors, performers and customers - in the studio! And to the wall.
I already wrote many times and now I will repeat.
Everything came to the fact that the country's leadership has two ways to raise the aviation industry: either to shoot all the “effective managers” who, for the next thirteen years, have prepared themselves another plan for the development of popular funds, or to make the aviation industry and aviation as a whole a priority area of Russian development, putting to the place of all these attacking vacuum cleaners in aviation and appointing those who really make the new Russian aviation industry.
At the last meeting of the Security Council, President Putin called for "making the same powerful, comprehensive breakthrough in the modernization of defense industries, as it was back in the 30 – s of the last century."
If you take aircraft, then the wildest illusion is the belief that you can make combat aircraft yourself, and civilians - to assemble with screwdrivers or simply deliver. Without civilian aircraft is impossible military.
And since Putin sends us back to 30 – s, it should be recalled that for Soviet aviation they were very different and extremely difficult, but one 1939 was really crucial, when the XVI Congress of the CPSU (B) approved the directive on the general development of aviation in the USSR and the forced creation of practically new at that time aviation industry and aviation, which allowed us in the end to win the Great Patriotic War.
The dialogue of I.V. is extremely instructive. Stalin and the outstanding Soviet Russian aircraft designer Alexander Yakovlev in the summer of that year 1939: “Speak what you think and do not be embarrassed - we believe you, although you are young. You are an expert in your field, you are not connected with the mistakes of the past, and therefore you can be more objective than the old specialists whom we really believed, and they brought us into the swamp with aviation. ”
To believe today in the aviation industry - is. Calling them out loud is not yet possible, since they will immediately become a target.
But who can not believe in any way is well known.
These are the current ones “which we really believed, and they brought us to the swamp with aircraft”.
And the state is obliged to withdraw them from administrative positions, where they solve private tasks not only at public expense, but also finish our aviation industry.
The country's leadership has the last chance to make 2012 a year 1939, not 1937.
According to the mind, today everything will have to be done as if from scratch, collecting and attracting really best designers, growing new design schools, collecting our most talented young people in these schools around our distinguished and dear old people who still remember how to make airplanes - consolidating all creative forces to create a new Russian aviation.