Military Review

Who is delaying the nuclear deal - Iran or the United States

Who is delaying the nuclear deal - Iran or the United States

In a conversation loop

At the stage of negotiations, the so-called “Joint Comprehensive Action Plan” was designated by the “Nuclear Deal”, according to which Iran’s large nuclear program was to be implemented. Almost the only retaliatory action on the part of his opponents, primarily the United States, was the lifting of sanctions from Iran. But all at once.

As you know, the deal was curtailed, or rather simply thwarted, by Republican President Trump, which largely predetermined the further radicalization of the ruling elites in Iran. At the moment, the intermediate result of the “atomic divorce” can be considered the coming to power of Ebrahim Raisi, who is much less accommodating than his predecessor, Hassan Rouhani.

Nevertheless, Iran has constantly reminded that it is ready to return to the nuclear deal, which it desperately needs for a real breakthrough in the implementation of a whole series of nuclear projects. First of all - energy, as well as research, medical, water desalination.

As paradoxical as it may sound, the military direction remains in Iran's nuclear program by no means in the first place. Although Washington constantly accuses Tehran of striving to enter the so-called nuclear club of the owners of the atomic weapons.

The realization that direct pressure from Iran is unlikely to achieve anything allowed the Democrats, nominating Joseph Biden for the presidency, to play practically on the Republican field. For many decades, they accused competitors of trying to solve everything by force, reminders of the numerous conflicts and wars declared by the Democratic presidents.

Donald Trump did not manage to get out of such a loop, although, if it were not for the pandemic, he outplayed Joe Biden quite confidently on domestic political topics. The Iranian electoral alignment was both simpler and more complicated, but in the end E. Raisi, not the most radical of the Islamic radicals, simply had no real rivals.

I can't even synchronize watches yet.

However, Iran was regularly reminded of its readiness to return to the deal, and the process began even before moderate Islamist radicals came to power in Tehran. Since April 2021, there have already been six rounds of negotiations concerning or directly related to the JCPOA.

There has been no serious progress, and although both sides constantly say that they are ready to move towards their opponents, there are mutual accusations in parallel, and deliberately unacceptable conditions are being set against each other.

For example, Tehran does not intend to abandon the development of the nuclear industry with obvious violations of the JCPOA until all sanctions are lifted. Moreover, the lifting of sanctions may simply be a condition for Iranian representatives to sit down at the negotiating table at all.

In response, Washington is demanding that Iran immediately return to the conditions under which the deal was concluded in 2015. It turns out that the difference in the initial positions is only that absolutely incomparable efforts are required to fulfill the requirements of the parties.

To lift the sanctions, the Americans, in fact, only need a stroke of the pen, or, as they say now, one click. But at the same time, the United States keeps repeating about the gradual lifting of sanctions. Iran has just a colossal amount of work to return its atomic program not even six, but at least three years ago.

For a long time, Tehran preferred not to advertise their violations of the JCPOA too much - first of all, the increase in the production of uranium enriched to levels that are practically not required in peaceful spheres. And research facilities do not need such volumes as those already produced at Iranian factories.

A little truth doesn't hurt, a little lies too

It should be recalled that before the US withdrawn from the nuclear deal in 2018, all of its conditions in Iran were strictly observed. And only on May 8, 2019, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani announced that Tehran is going to suspend obligations under the JCPOA.

Donald Trump, while punishing Iran, actually gave this country carte blanche for work in the field of military atom. It is characteristic that after Trump's demarche, Iran almost immediately changed its traditional craving for secrecy for excessive advertising of its achievements in the atomic sphere.

And sometimes in Tehran they did not hesitate to bluff, passing off wishful thinking. Experts of the International Nuclear Energy Agency IAEA in Iran were either simply led by the nose or driven to hysterics.

For example, like the one that happened to the head of the IAEA, Argentinean Rafael Grossi (pictured), when he, having no indisputable reason, bluntly stated that "Iran is on the verge of acquiring nuclear weapons."

Many people immediately wondered why Tehran needed such an aggravation?

Indeed, why did Iran need to move as quickly as possible in the development of non-military nuclear technologies, mainly related to energy and medicine?

After all, initially, announcing that they would always be ready to return to the implementation of the JCPOA, Tehran focused on the most important thesis: there can be no question of carrying out work on the military atom in Iran.

By all appearances, Iran did indeed count on what would return in a nuclear deal. Simply because the sanctions are costing him much more than all the benefits of the nuclear program. And Tehran is still very far from these benefits themselves. But they definitely wanted to get stronger positions when they returned to the JCPOA.

It was not for nothing that the other day from Tehran it was announced that

"Once the US takes 'meaningful steps' to 'effectively' lift all restrictions imposed in violation of the JCPOA and Resolution 2231, Iran will suspend its countervailing measures in accordance with Articles 26 and 36 of the agreement."

Photo: Tasnim News Agency

However, if Iran under President E. Raisi (pictured) is determined to exit the deal, and with the indispensable statement that the United States is to blame for everything, sympathy abroad, even in China, this will not add to it. Dealing with economic problems in almost complete isolation from the world will be much more difficult.

In addition, the development of the Iranian nuclear program is still active, albeit at the level of bypassing American sanctions, two JCPOA participants are involved, which are still listed as partners in Tehran - China and Russia.

Do not delay, but delay?

Germany and France and even Great Britain were also not opposed to working within the framework of the JCPOA. However, they were embarrassed not only by the negative impact of the sanctions, but also by Iran's open "disobedience". Now there is a feeling that Tehran will no longer back down. At least on key issues, especially in terms of technology development.

Yes, the Iranians can throw off the "extra" excessively enriched uranium, better for money, to slow down some installations. But as soon as there is the slightest chance of returning to the "advanced" state of the nuclear industry, they will certainly try to do it.

Many experts, including your author, believe that the prevailing view that time is working against both Iran and the United States is deeply mistaken. And supposedly delaying the return to the deal is unprofitable for both parties. On the contrary, the United States and Iran have existed for several years in such conditions, adapting to them and trying to extract some dividends from what they have.

Generally speaking, there are no guarantees that with a return to the deal, both of them will receive considerable benefits. All this is just a hypothesis or a positive scenario. Although any of the worst peace, as you know, is better than war.

And today too many are talking about the likelihood of some kind of war between the United States and Iran.

The fact that Iran continues to develop its nuclear program irritates the United States, and embarrasses not only England, Germany and France, but even Russia and China. Equally puzzling is the fact that the Americans are maintaining and even expanding sanctions against Iran. At the same time, neither Tehran nor Washington has so far made a single proposal to Russia on mediation in the negotiation process.

But the West should not forget that delaying the process of re-entering negotiations, after six fruitless rounds, can make the process of the US-Iranian divorce irreversible. Tehran may simply lose all interest in negotiating a nuclear deal at all.
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  1. Terran ghost
    Terran ghost 16 September 2021 15: 22
    Now I will say a very unpopular idea - but there is such a suspicion that the legal regime of the 1968 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty may not be long at all.
    Why? Let's take a look at the text of the agreement itself.
    Firstly, paragraph 3 of Article IX provides that only those that have acquired nuclear status before 01.01.1967 are considered as states possessing nuclear weapons. There are five such countries - the USA, Russia (in the order of succession from the USSR), China, Great Britain, France. However, in practice, there are already significantly more states possessing nuclear weapons. By 2021, India, Pakistan, North. Korea. Most likely, Israel also possesses nuclear weapons.
    And perhaps the most important thing. Article VI
    Quote: "Each Party to this Treaty undertakes, in good faith, to negotiate effective measures to end the nuclear arms race in the near future and nuclear disarmament, as well as a treaty on general and complete disarmament under strict and effective international control."
    That is, the goal of the NPT is complete nuclear disarmament. To which all countries participating in the treaty should strive. The only problem is that on the part of the countries of the "nuclear five" there is no movement towards complete nuclear disarmament from the word "absolutely". And it is unlikely that it will manifest itself in the coming decades. Alas, these are the facts.
  2. Kuz
    Kuz 16 September 2021 15: 31
    There is a conflict of interest in the internal kitchen in the United States itself. The deal is profitable for some, not for others
  3. paul3390
    paul3390 16 September 2021 15: 39
    Actually, why should such obviously aggressive countries like Pakistan or Israel have nuclear weapons, but Iran, which is openly and constantly threatened with military intervention, cannot? The world experience of the last 30 years has clearly shown that only an atomic bomb can serve as a firm guarantee of the country's sovereignty against Western encroachments. Saddam, Milosevic and Gaddafi are witnesses of this ..
    1. Doccor18
      Doccor18 16 September 2021 16: 55
      Quote: paul3390
      Pakistan or Israel can have nuclear weapons, but Iran, which is openly and constantly threatened with military intervention - not?

      I would be Shah, I would have ...
    2. Terran ghost
      Terran ghost 16 September 2021 18: 18
      and Iran, which is openly and constantly threatened with military intervention, is not

      Who exactly is threatening Iran with constant and open military invasion?
      And yes - and what exactly is Israel's aggressiveness expressed in? As a rule, in the Arab-Israeli wars, it was Israel that became the victim of aggression.
  4. Basarev
    Basarev 16 September 2021 17: 07
    Agreements are not possible. There's just no one to talk to. Not with the Ayatollah regime, for sure. Pakistan has already been missed, there is no desire to repeat the mistake. An Islamic country should not own an atom in any form, this is the prerogative of only the most conscientious countries, which have grown by civilization to such a level of responsibility that they will never stoop to nuclear blackmail. Islam, on the other hand, still lives in medieval savagery and therefore does not in any way attract a respectable partner, whose word can be trusted. Iran should be nuclear-free, I see the only condition for lifting the sanctions - the issuance of all-all enriched uranium, the dismantling of all nuclear equipment and the removal of every single nuclear specialist - so that Iran will never be able to deal with the atom in the future.
    1. evgen1221
      evgen1221 17 September 2021 14: 09
      Afghanistan lives in the Middle Ages, and nuclear technology and the Middle Ages are incompatible.
      1. Basarev
        Basarev 17 September 2021 15: 16
        Precisely what are incompatible. So there are only two options: either to get rid of the Middle Ages (it is difficult and long, it definitely needs a change of generations, and you will have to go against respected people), or get rid of nuclear technologies. None of these options envisions keeping Iran as it is.
  5. Petio
    Petio 16 September 2021 17: 46
    Do not forget that whoever did not beat the President of Iran, it is not he who makes decisions in Iran, but Ali Khamenei
  6. A. Privalov
    A. Privalov 16 September 2021 19: 07
    For a long time, Tehran preferred not to advertise their violations of the JCPOA too much - first of all, the increase in the production of uranium enriched to levels that are practically not required in peaceful spheres. And research facilities do not need such volumes as those already produced at Iranian factories.

    It should be recalled that before the US withdrawn from the nuclear deal in 2018, all of its conditions in Iran were strictly observed. And only on May 8, 2019, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani announced that Tehran is going to suspend obligations under the JCPOA.

    It must be recalled that Tehran in 2015 swore that its entire nuclear program is exclusively peaceful and there was no talk of any kind of creation of nuclear weapons. It was on this basis that the "deal" was made.
    Iran pledged to:
    · Within 15 years have at their disposal no more than 300 kg of low-enriched uranium (up to 3,67%);
    · Not to produce highly enriched uranium and weapons-grade plutonium;
    · To reduce the number of nuclear centrifuges from 19 thousand to 6,1 thousand;
    · Convert the Fordow concentrator into a technology center;
    · To use the reactor in Arak exclusively for peaceful purposes;
    · Admit IAEA inspectors to their nuclear facilities.

    In exchange for the deal, the UN Security Council, the United States and the European Union lifted sanctions on Iran, giving the country the opportunity to sell oil on the international market and use the global financial system for trade. In addition, more than $ 100 billion in foreign assets of Iran were unfrozen.

    8 May 2018 years Trump announced the country's withdrawal from the agreement on the Iranian nuclear program, as "it is based on lies" (Iran hid the existence of its nuclear weapons program), and in addition, the United States has evidence that Iran, in violation of all agreements, secretly continues to develop nuclear weapons, thereby violating the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.

    8 May 2019 years The Iranian government began blackmailing, announcing that it would cease complying with restrictions on its nuclear program, and threatened to increase nuclear activities if the countries participating in the nuclear deal did not protect Tehran from US sanctions.
    On July 7, 2019, Iran announced that it is starting the uranium enrichment process at a level higher than the 3,67% provided for by the nuclear deal and within a short time exceeded the value of low-enriched uranium reserves set at 300 kilograms ...

    At the end of May 2021, the IAEA concluded that Iran's enriched uranium reserves 16 times the amount allowed under the 2015 agreement.
    According to the head of the organization, Rafael Grossi, this circumstance do not allow us to clearly verify the peaceful nature of the country's atomic program.
    As of June 2021, Iran has 2,4 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium and more than 3200 kilograms of uranium enriched to various levels.

    To create a nuclear weapon, uranium enriched to 90% is required. However, when uranium is enriched to 60%, it takes very little time to reach the higher level.
    "Sixty percent is almost a weapon class,"
    - said IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi.
    He also said that the transition to uranium enrichment up to 60% has been taking place in Iran since April 2021.
    and nuclear materials are in three other undeclared locations.
  7. nikvic46
    nikvic46 17 September 2021 06: 01
    It is not known whether Iran will have nuclear weapons. But the West leaves no choice. Iran was intimidated by the United States. But the Islamic revolution took place not only for foreign policy reasons, but also for internal ones. Clan conflicts were tearing the country apart. Now the West itself drove this country into angle.Whether Iran bargains for lifting the sanctions, or creates new weapons, all this will be aimed at protecting their own country.