Military Review

Ukraine-Yugoslavia: Ukrainian Armed Forces have not come up with another scenario for Donbass


Photo: VO "Svoboda"

Have you ever thought about how you can destroy a tank or armored vehicle without the use of artillery and PTS? Have you ever wondered why the USSR suffered such huge losses in armored vehicles, aircraft and artillery in June-July 1941? We didn't know how to fight? Or will we believe the Stalinist version of the general betrayal of the generals?

Remember the numerous photographs from German archives showing abandoned, serviceable Soviet Tanks and planes? Why weren't they used in battle?

Most of the time, the reason is pretty simple. Lack of fuel and ammunition. Crews simply threw cars just because they were just targets without fuel.

I remembered this episode of the Great Patriotic War in connection ... with the latest events in Donbass.

We are so used to arguing about whether there will be an offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine or not, that we stopped noticing the visually indistinguishable, but quite seriously changing the situation on the line of contact, events.

It's scary to go head-on, we use NATO tactics in Yugoslavia

Thanks to some Russian political analysts and journalists, we all remember well the statement by President Vladimir Putin about the loss of Ukraine's statehood in the event of an attack on Donbass. The statement is definitely strong. There is no doubt that it will be fulfilled simply because Putin keeps his word. Both we and the enemy know about this.

The statement was made public a long time ago, which means that the Ukrainian General Staff and the overseas masters of Ukraine had enough time to think over the response of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. There are enough smart officers and generals who do not stick out in the media space, but do their job. And American generals are not bastard.

I do not consider it necessary to talk about solution options already because today it is possible to write about the chosen method of action with a fairly high probability. Overseas strategists insisted on the Yugoslav version. Why invent something supernova if there is a ready-made scenario that was successfully implemented not so long ago.

So, Russia has unequivocally stated that in the event of the start of aggression, a blow will be struck, practically depriving Ukraine of its military potential to fight not only the LPNR, but also another enclave - Transnistria. The only really possible option for the Armed Forces is a blitzkrieg, a lightning strike against the republics and the rapid capture of territory under its own control. And then hold out in the occupied Donbass for at least two or three days, until the deployment of NATO troops on the borders of the Russian Federation.

Thus, Russia is deprived of the opportunity to strike at Donbass. Russian citizens on the territories of the LPR become a guarantee of the protection of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from attacks by the Russian Armed Forces and artillery. Further, NATO troops are involved in the case, which threaten the beginning of direct hostilities in the west of Russia.

Considering that no one wants to fight, Russia has no choice but to accept the situation as it developed after the onset of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.


Yes, simple.

Theory or already practice

I understand that such a scenario looks rather outlandish, because for many years the Armed Forces of Ukraine and punishers periodically receive from the republican corps quite seriously insolent mugs. The offensive fervor of the Ukrainian soldiers has long since passed. The war took on the character of a trench. Both sides "respond to the dastardly shelling of the enemy" and nothing more. In these conditions, the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is impossible.

This is where the memories from which I began this material are appropriate. About abandoned tanks, cars, armored vehicles and other equipment. Today, the state of the rear of the Donetsk corps is not a cause for concern. As well as the life support system of cities and towns. Donetsk residents, without exaggeration, heroically maintain the entire infrastructure in working order.

However, let's look at the reports that are voiced by the press centers of the buildings. The enemy uses more and more drones to commit sabotage. If earlier these were targeted strikes against civilians and Republican positions, today we can already talk about sabotage precisely at military and civilian infrastructure facilities.

Here is a list of the latest provocations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as reported by the republican media. On September 8, the Zasyadko mine was de-energized as a result of artillery shelling. As a result, 85 miners remained underground. At the same time, the Chelyuskintsev mine was partially de-energized and the building of the flux-dolomite plant in Dokuchaevsk was destroyed in places. In Staromikhaylovka, as a result of shelling, 15 streets were de-energized. This is for the last week!

It is impossible to attribute everything to the poor training of the Ukrainian artillerymen. You have to face the facts directly. The Ukrainian army today is really well trained and motivated. Moreover, if you look at the work of the UAV of the Armed Forces of Ukraine over the past three or four months, we can conclude that the drone operators are well trained by the Turks.

Now imagine a situation when the enemy uses several dozen combat drones at once on a narrow sector of the front. Or it will carry out an attack on Donetsk or Lugansk on a massive scale. And all this is combined with an offensive in a narrow sector of the Republican defense.

And now about the last sabotage.

This is not the first, but the third case in recent years. So, on September 11, the UAVs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine struck at the Kirov oil depot in the city of Donetsk. In one blow, almost a train with fuel was destroyed. 1300 tons of fuel, a monthly supply of fuel and lubricants for Donetsk. Including military and civilian infrastructure.

“... the tactics of combat operations of the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are based on the experience of using high-precision weaponswhich was directed against the industrial potential of Yugoslavia and its army by NATO forces as they prepared to occupy Kosovo. True, then Belgrade was bombed with high-precision missiles, but now Kiev began to use cheaper, but also very effective UAVs in the armed struggle in Donbass. "

This is the opinion of a military expert, Lieutenant General Yuri Netkachev, expressed by him in an interview with Nezavisimaya Gazeta, with which I completely agree. Exactly so, namely the NATO operation, adapted to the Ukrainian realities. And drones, especially the disposable kamikaze, cost a mere penny compared to the damage they can inflict on the enemy.

By the way, General Netkachev spoke about another fact that proves my reasoning. True, he saw this fact from a slightly different angle. Netkachev cited it as proof of improvements in the training of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but I proceed from the options for using such specialists on the line of contact.

“A competition for the best tank platoon of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was held in the Rivne region. There, tankers fired from closed firing positions at a distance of more than 7 km. This is a significant distance to the target ...
Fire and sighting at the firing range near Rivne was corrected Drones, which transmitted data to the tank commander. It's a very difficult exercise."

Imagine tanks standing on the second line of defense, periodically changing positions and firing at the enemy, who simply does not have time to get them physically. A kind of nomadic batteries.

At the same time, in the absence of fuel and a certain training of crews, republican tankers simply cannot be used in the fight against these tanks ...

Instead of conclusions

Readers are accustomed to the fact that at the end of the materials I draw some conclusions. That won't happen today. Simply because I do not believe in the imminent start of the full implementation of the developed plans.

The headquarters of the LDNR corps are well aware of this plan. And they have already taken some countermeasures.

There they are inclined to "the peaceful continuation of the operation", that is, to systematic strikes against the infrastructure of the republics. Without the second stage - the offensive. At least, this is what the head of the DPR Denis Pushilin is talking about.

Today, the task of the corps is not only to defend the borders of the republics, but also to protect the life and health of civilians. This cannot be done without a well-built structure for countering UAVs. These are systems that ensure the destruction of combat drones, of which, thanks to Turkey, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have enough. We need funds that will remove combat homemade products from the sky. We also need drones in hulls capable of striking back.

Ukraine, as it seems to me, is clearly aggravating the situation before the next "United Efforts-2021" command and control exercise in the Azov-Black Sea water area. Today's attempt by Kiev to show the danger of Russia, the threat of the Crimean group of troops and republics. It is no coincidence that Kiev pays such attention precisely to the demonstration of these risks.

Those units from NATO countries that will participate in the exercises should become the conductors of just such views in their own armies. And a source of additional pressure on their own governments in order to allocate weapons and military equipment to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

The situation is evolving ...
31 comment

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  1. Vladimir Vladimirovich Vorontsov
    Vladimir Vladimirovich Vorontsov 15 September 2021 04: 22
    Remember the numerous photos from German archives depicting abandoned, serviceable Soviet tanks and aircraft?

    I do not remember!
    And I do not advise you ...
    1. Bashkirkhan
      Bashkirkhan 15 September 2021 06: 49
      Quote: Vladimir Vladimirovich Vorontsov
      I do not remember!
      And I do not advise you ...

      And I will remind you that every self-respecting Wehrmacht soldier in Army Group South was simply obliged to have a photo against the background of the T-35.

    2. nikvic46
      nikvic46 15 September 2021 07: 39
      Vladimir Vladimirovich. Read Rokossovsky's "Soldier's Duty", and everything will fall into place.
  2. Vladimir Vladimirovich Vorontsov
    Vladimir Vladimirovich Vorontsov 15 September 2021 04: 32
    We all remember very well the statement of President Vladimir Putin about the loss of statehood of Ukraine in the event of an attack on Donbass.

    But I remember this! ...
  3. Vladimir_2U
    Vladimir_2U 15 September 2021 04: 33
    There is no doubt that it will be fulfilled simply because Putin keeps his word.
    It looks like Putin's are different for their own and for those abroad ...
    1. The leader of the Redskins
      The leader of the Redskins 15 September 2021 06: 35
      Putin keeps his word...
      This is where the retirees started thinking ...
      1. Stas157
        Stas157 15 September 2021 06: 54
        Putin keeps his word.

        Sounds like an oxymoron. Can a hypocrite be an honest person?

        Regarding the worries about the Donbass. What prevents you from taking Donbass to your home harbor? No Ukraine would have attacked and all the problems of the population would have ended!
        1. Denis812
          Denis812 17 September 2021 20: 05
          Today the Russian Federation accepts Donbass in the Russian Federation.
          Tomorrow Ukraine will join NATO as its status of uncertainty disappears.
          All disputed territories entered the Russian Federation, OK. Now you can join NATO.
          The second - with tz. international law is of course the illegal occupation of foreign territories.
          Under this case, the EU can easily finally give a general ban on trade with the Russian Federation.
          Including gas and so on.

          In short, we acquire what we already have unofficially, and a bunch of guano falls from above, which it is stupid not to rake out.
          The question is - why do we need this?
          1. Egor-dis
            Egor-dis 17 September 2021 21: 13
            Quote: Denis812
            Under this case, the EU can easily finally give a general ban on trade with the Russian Federation. Including gas and so on.
            Events from 14 to 21 years show that if the EU needs to give a general ban, they will do it regardless of the events in Ukraine. They will just come up with the next "Skripals", drag "Petrov with Bashirov" somewhere, and do what they decided. Because a ban is not a political measure, but a "relatively legal" way to fight competition in the WTO. And they cannot ban gas, not because Russia is observing something, but because they understand that the gas ban will return such a boomerang that only ruins will remain of the EU.
            1. Denis812
              Denis812 17 September 2021 21: 51
              so they have no reason now.
              But with the capture of Donbass - there will be
              Zero real sensitive sanctions for Bashirov
              But for the Crimea - yes.
              Include inter-ears periodically.

              There will be no "ruins" left from the EU.
              There is no mortal dependence of the EU on the Russian Federation.
              As well as vice versa.
              There is a desire to earn money. And that's all.
  4. bayard
    bayard 15 September 2021 05: 10
    I think the newest Russian attack drones should appear in the Donbass, incl. and disposable ammunition
    "kamikaze". Or at least deploying them near the border in the Rostov region, for a prompt reaction in the event of an exacerbation.
    And it's time to put an end to this protracted unsuccessful project "the state of Ukraine".
    Simply assign the status of a "criminal illegal terrorist community" to the current Ukrainian elite.
    Based on the fact that the armed coup d'etat in 2014 is a terrorist crime, without a statute of limitations for liability.
    1. Egor-dis
      Egor-dis 17 September 2021 21: 03
      Quote: bayard
      I think the newest Russian attack drones should appear in the Donbass, incl. and disposable ammunition

      Must. But they will not appear. Considering that the production of such drones could be established in the republics, in almost every school, and their relevance, starting almost from the age of 14, there is a strong impression that someone does not really need a serious fleet of combat (and other) drones.
      I suspect that, for the same reason, no serious electronic warfare will appear to fight against Ukrainian UAVs.
      1. bayard
        bayard 17 September 2021 22: 12
        There is electronic warfare in the republics, and even of their own production, there is also a UAV. At the expense of the drums I will not say, it all depends on the power of the wearable ammunition.
        Quote: Egor-dis
        Considering that the production of such drones could be established in the republics, in almost every school, and their relevance, starting almost from the age of 14,

        Since 2015, even large and very powerful multiple launch rocket systems have been set up in the republics. True, not very long range, but quite acceptable for a local theater of operations.
        Another thing is that we have had Minsk-2015 since February 2. They simply do not allow to fight. They do not allow us to drive the enemy away from the cities - the front line rested on our cities since 2014 and we were simply not allowed to squeeze them out into the steppe.
        As they did not allow to take Mariupol, already empty from Bandera. Develop an offensive in the southern direction ...
        This whole conflict is a backstage conspiracy.
        And about "Putin's policy" ... it simply does not exist.
        But magpies on their tails wear that serious changes may occur on the Ukrainian front before the New Year.
        So the above-mentioned UAVs, even of local production, may well appear here.
  5. Andrey VOV
    Andrey VOV 15 September 2021 06: 27
    I do not agree with the author on some points, first, to destroy one drone or when there are many of them are different things, yes, and there is an air defense system. What is 1300 tons of fuel, and by and large nonsense, to replenish quickly. Deployment of NATO troops near the border of the Russian Federation .. Any movement of troops is now visible and the purpose of the movement is becoming clear. The production of Kiev's troops will also be immediately noticed, and at this time it is possible to inflict a preemptive strike on the control points, and our troops will quickly reach the places of battles .. In general, there is a lot more. Of course, you should not engage in shapkozakidatestvom. And there are many scientific papers about the reasons for our huge losses in technology in 41 years, and everything is not so simple there.
    Alexander, weak article to be honest
    1. alstr
      alstr 15 September 2021 09: 37
      I will add that the weakest link here is "to capture at lightning speed and hold out for two or three days." This will not work.
      Under Putin, for sure.
      Suffice it to recall just two episodes from recent history: the 2008 war and the march on Pristina.
      These two episodes show that with little or no preparation, our troops can go into battle with little or no concentration. This is only a question of political will. But with her, Putin is all right.
      1. Piramidon
        Piramidon 15 September 2021 20: 59
        Quote: alstr
        I will add that the weakest link here is "to capture at lightning speed and hold out for two or three days."

        And NATO is unlikely to fit into a war with Russia.
    2. domokl
      15 September 2021 10: 28
      Usually I read in silence, but let me say that no one is hiding about the concentration of troops. Fuel can also be started quickly enough. These are all questions that can be solved. Talk about the trends and tactics of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. But the fact that the Ukrainians will not be able to quickly overcome the line of demarcation ... Alas, the Republics do not have time to deploy. Only the Russian army can stop the offensive. You forget that the territory of the republics does not give the corps the opportunity to retreat far. Not a step back is not just a slogan for the LDNR fighters, but an order for the entire duration of the war. Until the territory of the regions is completely liberated
  6. carstorm 11
    carstorm 11 15 September 2021 07: 29
    This scenario exists by itself, but it initially loses for one simple reason. Intelligence and operational work. Corps obviously receive information from ours. And it is unlikely that the tracking and collection of information on the 404 troops will stop even for a second. At all levels from undercover to military. There, a surprise attack is impossible even in theory. As for the UAV, it’s probably time for ours to come up with something with this. They can make shit very much.
    1. Sergey Valov
      Sergey Valov 15 September 2021 10: 10
      "It's time to come up with something with this" - a long time ago everything was invented and embodied in metal. And what was not used in Karabakh, and now, in Donbass, they allow you to indulge in this way, you see, the plan is appropriate.
  7. nikvic46
    nikvic46 15 September 2021 07: 45
    Of course, it is difficult to discern the complexity of this situation from the apartment, but if the Donbass military does not respond adequately to every damage, then it is not clear what this will lead to. Destroyed the oil storage, destroy their fuel base, because they are not bringing fuel from the center. If the Donbass spring exists, then not all is lost, but it must be in order to straighten.
  8. nikvic46
    nikvic46 15 September 2021 08: 23
    I think the problems with Ukraine are for a long time. Here they remembered Yugoslavia. Socialism has fallen, the country has fallen. In Ukraine, the opposition consists entirely of bourgeois elements. And each of them, having come to power, will respect their interests. Having embarked on the path of anti-Sovietism, we have ruined the entire space of good-neighborliness and mutual assistance. What is being done now is a dead-end path. Only social guarantees at all levels will give guarantees of peace.
  9. Aleksandr21
    Aleksandr21 15 September 2021 10: 10
    The offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the LDNR is unlikely, due to known reasons (factor of Russia) and other tactics of Ukraine, i.e. The emphasis on the return of Donbass is made on the procrastination and destruction of the population of Donbass through economic isolation and deterioration of the life of the population ... i.e. low salary, low level of medicine, education, lack of prospects ... and uncertainty about the future, for example, why should a young family survive in the LPR when you can go to Russia, get Russian citizenship with maternity capital and all sorts of benefits + a guarantee of safety for yourself and their children, so the prospects for Donbass are very vague, since 2014 there has been a huge outflow of the population and it will only increase, the older generation will leave and the youth will leave, only one territory will remain, and then (most likely) there will be some movement from Ukraine across Donbass, but these are not the coming years for sure ... but I do not believe in a military scenario, that is. there is no desire on the part of the United States to confront Russia in the hot phase, cold war please ... and besides, a lot of resources will have to be spent on keeping China and maintaining its position, so there will definitely not be approval of the curators, and Ukraine itself will be at war with Russia (without a guarantee of side of NATO) will not pull.
  10. prior
    prior 15 September 2021 11: 39
    "UAVs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine struck at the Kirov oil depot in the city of Donetsk"

    Taki sho, in Ukraine there are no oil depots and oil refineries?
    Why are there still no Iskanders in the armies of the LPNR?
    It is possible to establish peace in Donbass and quickly. But for this, the otvetka must fly to Kiev, to Bankovskaya, to Hrushevsky ... There are many more interesting places.
    1. Zaurbek
      Zaurbek 15 September 2021 13: 20
      There can be anything ... starting with certain weapons there is an account ... BRs just don't appear suddenly. They were not on the LPNR, there is nothing to write off. This is a question of Russia's participation in the conflict ..... there are many options: like now, Turkish, Yugoslavian ......
    2. Seamaster
      Seamaster 15 September 2021 23: 45
      Until the SP-2 is certified, until it starts working and the Caucasians sit on its gas needle, there will be no serious response. The construction of this joint venture-2 tied Russia's hands politically for 5 years.
  11. Old ensign
    Old ensign 15 September 2021 20: 59
    I read the article by the author. What can I say, a set of stamps. I'm not going to convince anyone. Indeed, only fear (no not, FEAR) of a retaliatory strike from Russia, while keeping Ukraine from a blitzkrieg in the Donbass. In order to suppress the organized resistance of the militia of the LPR and DPR and go (almost everywhere) to the administrative border with Russia, the Armed Forces of Ukraine need 2 or 3 days. The militia is not combat-ready, for 7 years the militia has been fed the idea that they will be separate regions of Ukraine. Who from the militia will fight for this? Many reputable militia commanders were killed either by the SBU or by their own, so as not to interfere with stealing. Many of the militia went to civilian life and left for Russia.
    I argue further. Have you ever taken action in the city? How will the Russian army drive the Ukrainian Armed Forces out of Donetsk and Lugansk? Will Russian paratroopers run to Ukrainian machine guns?
    In the cities there are women and children, which means that Russia cannot carry out a full-fledged military operation.
    Do you think they don't understand this in Kiev?
    The Armed Forces of Ukraine are purposefully increasing their combat power. I ask you not to grin and not to say that if we have to shoot Iskander and the Ukrainian Armed Forces will sweep out of fear and run away. Ukraine, with all its poverty, is building an efficient army (no not, the ARMY!)
    Remember how the Azerbaijanis and Turks defeated the Armenians in Karabakh. Aliyev asked permission from Russia? The Azerbaijanis have been preparing for war for 20 years, you know the result.
    1. Seamaster
      Seamaster 15 September 2021 23: 41
      And who told you that Aliyev did NOT ask permission from Russia? Almost certainly - asked. And given the previous behavior of Pashinyan, and of Armenia as a whole, in relation to Russia and Nagorno-Karabakh, he received such permission. "Okay, fuck off this greyhound, but not much. Purely Schaub knew his place, mimoznik!"
  12. Borisych
    Borisych 15 September 2021 23: 25
    The 404 peace enforcement scenario primarily involves the use of non-lethal complexes. When all the electronics failed, including the car ignition system, there was no time for tactics and strategy. Everyone will start looking for civilian clothes, that's all. Then you can practice on bridges so that they don't run far. For fans there is Pinocchio. Bayraktars will come in handy, then you can attach them somewhere. Everything else is used as scrap metal. The Azeri hobbyists in Karabakh would expect exactly such an ending, if they did not agree to something.
  13. Seamaster
    Seamaster 15 September 2021 23: 34
    The essence of the article: surprise + tanks firing from closed positions + drones.
    1) Isn't the movement of the troops of Ukraine tracked in any way with satellites and air and radio reconnaissance? Russian planes with removed machine guns and radio stations are in line at airfields 5 km from the border without camouflage? To AVOID PROVOCATIONS, do the Red Army men only have 10 rounds of ammunition for watch duty, and the shells are sealed in the warehouses?
    2) A tank firing from closed positions is an ersatz 152 \ 155 mm self-propelled gun, with which Ukrainians have problems. Especially - with ammunition for them.
    3) Each drone has a "house" where they are based, refueled, from where they are controlled. I think a division or two of "Hurricanes" or "Peonies" have already shot (while on the tablets) these hatynki.
    And to shout "Tigers don't report meat!" somehow not professional.
  14. Shadow041
    Shadow041 16 September 2021 11: 50
    Everything will depend on how quickly, toughly and professionally the Russian army will be allowed to work on the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the event of an attack by the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Donbass. If Moscow plays giveaway, as during the First Chechen War, then the Russian Federation will merge the war even with Lithuania, if they fight seriously, then a massive blow will be inflicted on railway stations, airfields, warehouses, bridges with the help of cruise missiles and Eskander. these objects, even when NATO troops land in Ukraine, they will stall and will not be able to develop any significant success in a short time, and there the Russian Federation will have time to pull up reserves and if the Yankees do not want to meet Russian Strategic Missile Forces missiles in Washington, then they will have to recognize the status quo and sit down at the negotiating table. Of course, in this situation, there will be no units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine either in Donbass or in Kharkov, these territories are surrounded on three sides by the territories of the Russian Federation and they will become a huge cauldron and grave for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
  15. Petio
    Petio 18 September 2021 09: 50
    And what if Russia, like NATO, starts to strike and razherast all infrastructure of Ukraine with missiles and air strikes to enforce peace?