Demonstration of force as a guarantee of the security of the border with Afghanistan
Afghanistan continues to be one of the main topics of the world media. However, the focus has shifted to events in Kabul and the Kabul airport. Of course, the way the Americans conduct the evacuation of their soldiers and those of their allies is interesting. The closer September, the more panicky the flight looks.
Already today we can say that in September the Taliban (requested in the Russian Federation) will additionally receive at their disposal weapons and military equipment of the Americans. They just won't have time to take everything out. As they will not have time to withdraw all those who collaborated with them all these years.
We are more interested in the situation in the provinces bordering Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. What is the probability of crossing the borders of these states by armed formations from both sides? What should the command of our 201st base pay attention to?
The power in Kabul has changed. What's next?
Those readers who are interested in what is happening now in Afghanistan can proudly say: "Everything is going according to the previously outlined plan." Indeed, the development of the situation was not unexpected for most experts.
The Taliban, the overwhelming majority of Pashtuns, have entrenched themselves in areas traditionally inhabited by Pashtuns. The remnants of the government troops fled north to the Panjshir Gorge, to areas traditionally inhabited by ethnic Tajiks. Neither one nor the other has yet decided to start hostilities. Simply because the attacking side immediately finds itself in a worse position.
In previous articles, I drew attention to the fact that Afghan society is far from being monolithic. The country is inhabited by many peoples, and the relationship of these peoples is far from cloudless. Uzbeks, Hazaras, Turkmens, aimaks, Kirghiz, Nuristanis ... This is not a complete list of peoples who live in Afghanistan except Pashtuns and Tajiks.
Each nation, each clan, in conditions when other clans are armed, will definitely have its own detachment. We must not forget that the population of Afghanistan has fought for many centuries. He fought with the invaders, fought among themselves. Any man in this country, regardless of clan, receives the first gift weapon... A tradition that is many centuries old. Therefore, you can see rifles of the 19th century and the most modern weapons of any country among the Mujahideen.
So what is happening today, I mean the beginning of a civil war between the Taliban and pro-government forces, has another side. The emergence of many armed detachments, subordinate only to their commanders. On which side they will fight is not yet clear. The most likely option for me is the third force.
In addition to these units, others may appear. We are accustomed to thinking that the Taliban (ex. In the RF) are monolithic. In fact, if you look from the inside, this political trend is no different from others. There are right-wing and left-wing radicals, there are moderate ones ... Yes, and the Taliban obey the supreme power rather conditionally. Specific units act as the commander decides.
Now about the main thing. The emergence of many armed groups of different kinds will lead the country to chaos. The provinces will control local groups, with which it will be necessary to negotiate both the Taliban and the pro-government forces. Moreover, these contracts will not be binding at all. For us, this threatens the appearance of armed detachments in different parts of the border, which will not be controlled by anyone.
Is there a bloodless way out of the situation
No one can stop the civil war in Afghanistan. The only way out of the situation is to negotiate and divide the central power. But today neither side is ready for this. Some are dizzy with success, while others want to maintain control of their mines and their territory.
To persuade the leaders of the clans not to participate in the massacre will also fail. Afghans are well aware of the power of arms in resolving issues. A clan can only exist when women, old people and children are reliably protected. So, the passage of any armed detachments through the territory of the clan will be perceived as an attack. With the appropriate response.
Thus, it will not be possible to avoid war. But to stop it quickly is quite possible if there is a clear understanding of what state will be in Afghanistan and what forces will rule the country and the provinces.
Brief conclusion
The task of preventing armed detachments from entering the territory of neighboring countries remains relevant today. Getting involved in a conflict on the territory of Afghanistan is like death. So there is only one way out. Make sure that the armed Afghans, whoever they are, are afraid to cross the border, especially with weapons.
To do this, we conducted exercises with Uzbekistan, and then with Tajikistan on border defense. In addition, Russian tankers from 201 bases conducted company tactical exercises with live firing at the Lyaur mountain range. The East is a dark matter, but news spreads quickly there. Undoubtedly, those to whom this was addressed already know that it is dangerous to meddle in the adjacent territory.
In addition, there is some more information that has already been brought to the attention of the respective commanders. The Russian military base was reinforced with Kornet ATGM, Verba portable anti-aircraft missile systems (MANPADS), AK-12 assault rifles, Yarygin pistols, ASVK-M large-caliber sniper rifles and extended-range flamethrowers.
In the language of the military, this is called a show of force. Defeating the enemy without a fight is also a martial art. It is impossible to fully guarantee that not a single Taliban or Mujahid will cross the border. There will certainly be such attempts. People will strive for a peaceful country. But the invasion of even small armed detachments is doubtful. Nobody wants to die.
The military fulfilled their task. The time has come for diplomats. Only they can make those who do not want to speak to speak. And if a conversation starts, then the contract is quite real. Usually the military ends up what the diplomats failed to do. In Afghanistan, the military began and left the diplomats to finish the matter peacefully ...
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