Demonstration of force as a guarantee of the security of the border with Afghanistan

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Demonstration of force as a guarantee of the security of the border with Afghanistan

Afghanistan continues to be one of the main topics of the world media. However, the focus has shifted to events in Kabul and the Kabul airport. Of course, the way the Americans conduct the evacuation of their soldiers and those of their allies is interesting. The closer September, the more panicky the flight looks.

Already today we can say that in September the Taliban (requested in the Russian Federation) will additionally receive at their disposal weapons and military equipment of the Americans. They just won't have time to take everything out. As they will not have time to withdraw all those who collaborated with them all these years.



We are more interested in the situation in the provinces bordering Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. What is the probability of crossing the borders of these states by armed formations from both sides? What should the command of our 201st base pay attention to?

The power in Kabul has changed. What's next?


Those readers who are interested in what is happening now in Afghanistan can proudly say: "Everything is going according to the previously outlined plan." Indeed, the development of the situation was not unexpected for most experts.

The Taliban, the overwhelming majority of Pashtuns, have entrenched themselves in areas traditionally inhabited by Pashtuns. The remnants of the government troops fled north to the Panjshir Gorge, to areas traditionally inhabited by ethnic Tajiks. Neither one nor the other has yet decided to start hostilities. Simply because the attacking side immediately finds itself in a worse position.

In previous articles, I drew attention to the fact that Afghan society is far from being monolithic. The country is inhabited by many peoples, and the relationship of these peoples is far from cloudless. Uzbeks, Hazaras, Turkmens, aimaks, Kirghiz, Nuristanis ... This is not a complete list of peoples who live in Afghanistan except Pashtuns and Tajiks.

Each nation, each clan, in conditions when other clans are armed, will definitely have its own detachment. We must not forget that the population of Afghanistan has fought for many centuries. He fought with the invaders, fought among themselves. Any man in this country, regardless of clan, receives the first gift weapon... A tradition that is many centuries old. Therefore, you can see rifles of the 19th century and the most modern weapons of any country among the Mujahideen.

So what is happening today, I mean the beginning of a civil war between the Taliban and pro-government forces, has another side. The emergence of many armed detachments, subordinate only to their commanders. On which side they will fight is not yet clear. The most likely option for me is the third force.

In addition to these units, others may appear. We are accustomed to thinking that the Taliban (ex. In the RF) are monolithic. In fact, if you look from the inside, this political trend is no different from others. There are right-wing and left-wing radicals, there are moderate ones ... Yes, and the Taliban obey the supreme power rather conditionally. Specific units act as the commander decides.

Now about the main thing. The emergence of many armed groups of different kinds will lead the country to chaos. The provinces will control local groups, with which it will be necessary to negotiate both the Taliban and the pro-government forces. Moreover, these contracts will not be binding at all. For us, this threatens the appearance of armed detachments in different parts of the border, which will not be controlled by anyone.

Is there a bloodless way out of the situation


No one can stop the civil war in Afghanistan. The only way out of the situation is to negotiate and divide the central power. But today neither side is ready for this. Some are dizzy with success, while others want to maintain control of their mines and their territory.

To persuade the leaders of the clans not to participate in the massacre will also fail. Afghans are well aware of the power of arms in resolving issues. A clan can only exist when women, old people and children are reliably protected. So, the passage of any armed detachments through the territory of the clan will be perceived as an attack. With the appropriate response.

Thus, it will not be possible to avoid war. But to stop it quickly is quite possible if there is a clear understanding of what state will be in Afghanistan and what forces will rule the country and the provinces.

Brief conclusion


The task of preventing armed detachments from entering the territory of neighboring countries remains relevant today. Getting involved in a conflict on the territory of Afghanistan is like death. So there is only one way out. Make sure that the armed Afghans, whoever they are, are afraid to cross the border, especially with weapons.

To do this, we conducted exercises with Uzbekistan, and then with Tajikistan on border defense. In addition, Russian tankers from 201 bases conducted company tactical exercises with live firing at the Lyaur mountain range. The East is a dark matter, but news spreads quickly there. Undoubtedly, those to whom this was addressed already know that it is dangerous to meddle in the adjacent territory.

In addition, there is some more information that has already been brought to the attention of the respective commanders. The Russian military base was reinforced with Kornet ATGM, Verba portable anti-aircraft missile systems (MANPADS), AK-12 assault rifles, Yarygin pistols, ASVK-M large-caliber sniper rifles and extended-range flamethrowers.

In the language of the military, this is called a show of force. Defeating the enemy without a fight is also a martial art. It is impossible to fully guarantee that not a single Taliban or Mujahid will cross the border. There will certainly be such attempts. People will strive for a peaceful country. But the invasion of even small armed detachments is doubtful. Nobody wants to die.

The military fulfilled their task. The time has come for diplomats. Only they can make those who do not want to speak to speak. And if a conversation starts, then the contract is quite real. Usually the military ends up what the diplomats failed to do. In Afghanistan, the military began and left the diplomats to finish the matter peacefully ...
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  1. -2
    30 August 2021 04: 10
    Afghans are well aware of the power of arms in resolving issues.
    It seems that they only understand it, contracts without force support are not particularly observed there, however, as usual.

    The Russian military base was reinforced with the Kornet ATGM, Verba portable anti-aircraft missile systems (MANPADS), AK-12 assault rifles, Yarygin pistols
    Well, where in Afghanistan without a pistol! Funny by God.
    1. +3
      30 August 2021 06: 41
      For this purpose we conducted exercises with Uzbekistan, and then with Tajikistan

      The Americans even fought a war, but the Taliban were not particularly impressed.
      1. 0
        30 August 2021 08: 09
        Quote: Stas157
        The Americans even fought a war, but the Taliban were not particularly impressed.

        You didn’t notice the difference between us and them?
        If not, then I will explain:
        - USA - invaders, Afghans (Taliban) - liberators. Liberators of their land.
        - we are demonstrating to Afghans that they shouldn't get in on us.

        ps
        By the way. The Ukrainian leadership should take an example from the West in the sense of how they recognize the Taliban's rule and, despite the fact that this organization is recognized by the UN as terrorist, they are negotiating with it. It's time for Ukraine to start negotiating with the LPR.
        1. 0
          30 August 2021 08: 57
          Quote: Boris55
          we show the Afghans that to us do not climb

          To us to Tajikistan? Afghan tribes in border Tajikistan feel at home. Family ties are like that. Are you from there too, Boris?
          1. +1
            30 August 2021 09: 04
            Quote: Stas157
            To us in Tajikistan?

            The CSTO includes Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Tajikistan. They are all allies of Russia. So come to us.
            1. -1
              30 August 2021 09: 18
              So that we have fewer problems with the Taliban, we need to support Massoud so that our troops will not find work.
            2. -3
              30 August 2021 10: 58
              And how did the CSTO help Armenia?
              1. +4
                30 August 2021 13: 39
                Quote: OSTup bender
                And how did the CSTO help Armenia?

                And that someone attacked Armenia?
                1. -3
                  30 August 2021 15: 02
                  Have you noticed?
                  Probably Pashinyan wanted to retire out of boredom.
                  1. +1
                    30 August 2021 16: 20
                    Is it possible a little less mysterious fog? Be clearer. Who, when, how much? Well, what has it to do with the fact that Pashinyan, out of boredom, wanted to retire. And somehow, nothing about the war on the territory of Armenia is heard anywhere. Not otherwise than a conspiracy of the Freemasons.
                  2. 0
                    1 September 2021 16: 29
                    Who and where attacked Armenia? :)
                    Are you really that unaware?
              2. 0
                8 September 2021 00: 20
                The CSTO is a fiction for housewives!
                The year of Nisanov is a power that tipped the cup of our security officials in favor of the Turkish-Azerbaijani misalliance.

                Everything was decided on the droshky of the Ukraine pool in Moscow.
                And you mean some kind of CSTO.
          2. 0
            30 August 2021 18: 43
            if not in the subject, why are you chasing bullshit.
            1. +1
              30 August 2021 20: 49
              The comrade is just in the subject, because he trolls the opponent. Nobody attacked Armenia. Fortunately, the actions were carried out on the territory, which it is ridiculous to say Armenia itself did not recognize. Pashinyan tried to sign Putin for this war, but was gently sent. Or maybe tough .. You can't just go and run into Russia, and then ask for help. All this has been clearly calculated in Azerbaijan. Pashinyan himself had such an impression that was exactly what he wanted. Give up the territory of Karabakh. And Karabakh did not sign a security agreement with anyone. Such is the legal incident. And, if Donbass is the Russians, whom we cannot leave, even if we provide indirect assistance, then the Armenians in recent years have done their best to cool relations. If Pashinyan was sure, he would have turned to the CSTO, but he apparently knows.
        2. +1
          30 August 2021 10: 58
          Quote: Boris55
          Afghans (Taliban) are liberators. Liberators of their land.

          Until his ... No matter how they crawl to "liberate" other countries ...
        3. 0
          30 August 2021 21: 04
          Quote: Boris55
          It is time for Ukraine to start negotiating with the LPNR.

          You just compared a terrorist organization recognized as such by the UN and LDNR, how are you feeling with your teeth, do not shake your teeth?
    2. 0
      30 August 2021 08: 12
      Quote: Vladimir_2U

      The Russian military base was reinforced with the Kornet ATGM, Verba portable anti-aircraft missile systems (MANPADS), AK-12 assault rifles, Yarygin pistols
      Well, where in Afghanistan without a pistol! Funny by God.

      Well, while we still do not have a base in Afghanistan, they write about the Tajik based on the 201st motorized rifle division. And we don't need to console ourselves with the fact that the Taliban will not go north and will not expand. But the dizziness of impunity and the pay of the Western special services always complement each other. They went further by invading Dagestan and Ingushetia, and these will go after getting rid of the dissenters and receiving funding.
      1. 0
        1 September 2021 16: 31
        You can say anything, but in principle, yes, the Afghans won. Because the Soviet troops left Afgan.
        The fact that the government of the USSR could not formulate goals for the army is a problem for the USSR.
        And so, yes, the Afghans won.
        You can wipe the snot and learn from this.
        1. 0
          1 September 2021 17: 35
          Quote: Denis812
          The fact that the government of the USSR could not formulate goals for the army is a problem for the USSR.
          And so, yes, the Afghans won.
          You can wipe the snot and learn from this.

          Well, wipe it off if they are flowing., You have been taught for 30 years to repent, cry and apologize ... and ... even though the "spirits" did not win our army, hack it on your nose, if only because even after the departure of our army power existed and successfully for 3 more years, moreover, against the whole alliance of countries helping first the militants of AL QAIDA, and then the Taliban. borders, help build the future of the Afghan people, built schools, hospitals, roads, taught how to extract water, oil, gas, irrigate the land and sow crops, even visited space. And Najibul collapsed for the same reason as the USSR, at first we were betrayed and destroyed from the inside and then he was stupid, there were no shells for tanks and artillery, there was nothing for transport and tanks to ride. The government of the new pro-Western Russia simply blocked supplies and refused to save him ..
          1. 0
            1 September 2021 19: 33
            You wipe the nozzles, please, and then read everything that you and I have written and you will understand that it is all the same.
            The USSR fought successfully and all that. It's just that the USSR could not set the goals of the army.
            That is why the USSR LOST. Withdrawing your troops.
            Everything is very simple.
          2. 0
            21 November 2021 23: 13
            It's called a "shitty ruler".
            If his tanks had nothing to ride, and the soldiers had nothing to shoot with.
            This means that he was pulled by the ears.
            And as soon as they stopped, the regime collapsed.
            As did southern Vietnam at one time.
      2. DDT
        0
        12 September 2021 22: 15
        Quote: Mar. Tira
        Quote: Vladimir_2U

        The Russian military base was reinforced with the Kornet ATGM, Verba portable anti-aircraft missile systems (MANPADS), AK-12 assault rifles, Yarygin pistols
        Well, where in Afghanistan without a pistol! Funny by God.

        Well, while we still do not have a base in Afghanistan, they write about the Tajik based on the 201st motorized rifle division. And we don't need to console ourselves with the fact that the Taliban will not go north and will not expand. But the dizziness of impunity and the pay of the Western special services always complement each other. They went further by invading Dagestan and Ingushetia, and these will go after getting rid of the dissenters and receiving funding.

        To my great regret, your forecast is more than realistic. I don't understand our leadership at all. I would be in the place of President Mirziyayev, under the guise of clearing at least the detachments of the IMU and these Ansarullahs like him. Assault and army aviation is ... Well, okay, wait and see. Hope you are wrong.
    3. -6
      30 August 2021 08: 18
      1. Afghans believe that they won the USSR. It is fair to say that Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan are weaker than the USSR. Accordingly, they are not afraid of any teachings.
      2. The banned group took control of Afghanistan swiftly on 2 promises - legality (Sharia law) and the eradication of corruption (by the most brutal methods). It is not a fact that the population of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan will remain loyal to their local satraps in the event of an attack by the troops of this group.
      1. 0
        30 August 2021 08: 41
        Quote: Civil
        Afghans believe they defeated the USSR

        The Afghans are not equal to the Taliban, and the Taliban have nothing to do with the "victory over the USSR".
        1. -3
          30 August 2021 08: 46
          Quote: Vladimir_2U
          The Afghans are not equal to the Taliban, and the Taliban have nothing to do with the "victory over the USSR".

          They are shouting about it at every corner, this is their "uniting victory over the communist infidels."
          PS. You will agree with such logic that the modern Russian army has nothing to do with the Red Army, which won in 1945.
          1. 0
            30 August 2021 09: 06
            Quote: Civil
            They are shouting about it at every corner, this is their "uniting victory over the communist infidels."

            Personally, I haven't heard from any angle.

            Quote: Civil
            You will agree with such logic that the modern Russian army has nothing to do with the Red Army, which won in 1945.
            I do not need to ascribe some kind of crooked logic. And the Taliban, having emerged as a force in 1994, fiercely opposed the Afghan Tajiks and Uzbeks. What is there in common and uniting, what does the Taliban have to do with the withdrawal of Soviet troops (1989)? And is it possible to imagine that the armies of the USSR, 3 years after the victory, would begin to fight against each other like the Taliban against Dostom and Ahmad Shah? In a curve logic it is possible, but not in the one I follow.
  2. +3
    30 August 2021 07: 31
    For this, we conducted exercises with Uzbekistan, and then with Tajikistan.

    These drills are more to appease Uzbekistan and Tajikistan than to prevent the Taliban. He's not up to it now.
  3. +1
    30 August 2021 08: 18
    I completely agree with the author. But there is another danger - creeping migration. It is not only the security forces that have to work here. There should be control over the work of officials. All papers go through them.
  4. -1
    30 August 2021 09: 03
    "Is there a bloodless way out of the situation"
    Yes, we do not need this exit! We must do everything so that they kill each other indefinitely! The USSR built them, fed them, imported them, and taught them. For this they killed our children. This nation is not worthy of respect! If you trade or help with them, then the price tag will be inflated several times! Let them pay for Russian blood even now!
  5. -1
    30 August 2021 09: 23
    There would be something to demonstrate ...
    Ukraine or Afghan?
    I accept bets ...
    Sincerely
  6. +2
    30 August 2021 10: 00
    In the late 80s, Afghans who studied in Tashkent said that Samarkand and Bukhara were their land. I was surprised, they didn't say anything about it in the Soviet school. But later I learned that indeed, when the Asian khanates were gathered into republics, the local population was forcibly recorded in the respective nationalities. For example, the residents of Samarkand were recorded as Uzbeks, although they are Tajiks. And there was no Uzbek nation before, the report began to be received from the Khan Uzbek. As a result, Tajiks, Uzbeks, Turkmens argue who are famous figures of ancient times by nationality: Ferdowsi, Avicenna, etc. Who built the ancient cities.
    In general, a wagon and a small cart are mixed there with contradictions. The Bolsheviks as a whole somehow coped with the region, now there is no such force there. Everyone in the region is in conflict with each other, and the desire of ethnic Tajiks living in Afghanistan to reunite with their relatives in Samarkand has not gone away.
    Conclusion: instability for a long time. The Taliban factor has been added to the contradictions between Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.
    1. DDT
      +1
      12 September 2021 22: 20
      Quote: glory1974
      In the late 80s, Afghans who studied in Tashkent said that Samarkand and Bukhara were their land. I was surprised, they didn't say anything about it in the Soviet school. But later I learned that indeed, when the Asian khanates were gathered into republics, the local population was forcibly recorded in the respective nationalities. For example, the residents of Samarkand were recorded as Uzbeks, although they are Tajiks. And there was no Uzbek nation before, the report began to be received from the Khan Uzbek. As a result, Tajiks, Uzbeks, Turkmens argue who are famous figures of ancient times by nationality: Ferdowsi, Avicenna, etc. Who built the ancient cities.
      In general, a wagon and a small cart are mixed there with contradictions. The Bolsheviks as a whole somehow coped with the region, now there is no such force there. Everyone in the region is in conflict with each other, and the desire of ethnic Tajiks living in Afghanistan to reunite with their relatives in Samarkand has not gone away.
      Conclusion: instability for a long time. The Taliban factor has been added to the contradictions between Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.

      Yes ... the Bolsheviks broke fire with delimitation. There is only one thing that saves us Uzbeks, our army. Wishlist immediately decreases in the children of the mountains. But in fact, this is not Samarkand and Bukhara, the land of the Afghans, this is Balkh, Herat, Kabul, Ghazni, Kunduz ... - the land of the Uzbeks. If the Republic of Ingushetia had not come to the SA, had not been for the "Big Game", the Uzbek khanates would have controlled the north of Afghanistan, "South Turkestan," by the way, until now. Kabul students lied to you;) Or they don't know the story at all. hi
      1. 0
        13 September 2021 09: 03
        there are no Afghans as a nationality. They have Pashtuns, Khazarians, etc. Including Uzbeks live in Afghanistan.
        There is no point in lying to Kabul students. These are their beliefs.
        There are many nations and nationalities mixed in, where whose land is not clear now. Therefore, they live within the boundaries that have developed in recent history.
        You are right about one thing. The army can preserve the established order.
        1. DDT
          +1
          14 September 2021 10: 57
          Quote: glory1974
          there are no Afghans as a nationality. They have Pashtuns, Khazarians, etc. Including Uzbeks live in Afghanistan.
          There is no point in lying to Kabul students. These are their beliefs.
          There are many nations and nationalities mixed in, where whose land is not clear now. Therefore, they live within the boundaries that have developed in recent history.
          You are right about one thing. The army can preserve the established order.

          As it is. Afghans are a nation living in the country of Afghanistan. Uzbeks, Tajiks, Pashtuns, etc. these are the peoples inhabiting this country. You have written about AFGHAN students. I answered about AFGHANS. And I repeat once again, whether the right-bank Uzbeks, Tajiks, Khazars-Pashtuns-Baluchs in the Central Asian Mesopotamia never belonged to anything.
          1. 0
            14 September 2021 14: 26
            I will not argue. I wanted to say that you have your own version of history, they have their own, and they think they belong. And this is the problem.
  7. 0
    30 August 2021 11: 58
    Nobody wants to die.
    Well, it depends on what, for beloved Islam with the gurias, those who wish will line up in line
  8. +2
    30 August 2021 15: 25
    Let me disagree with the author - the danger is posed by an unarmed attack by Afghan troops on their neighbors (this is unlikely in the near future). The danger is represented by the flow of jihadists, refugees and drugs from Afghanistan (this will and already is). And in this case, the 201st base will not help much (especially since out of 7 base personnel, 6 are Tajiks).
  9. +1
    30 August 2021 20: 26
    Demonstration of strength is not a guarantee and can be seen as a demonstration of powerlessness. It all depends on the angle of view. In fact, "our" allies are not our allies. They are building some kind of "Turan". This is the same Anti-Russia as Ukraine.
  10. -2
    30 August 2021 21: 35
    Afghanistan continues to be one of the main topics of the world media. However, the focus has shifted to events in Kabul and the Kabul airport. Of course, the way the Americans conduct the evacuation of their soldiers and those of their allies is interesting. The closer September, the more panicky the flight looks.

    Why wishful thinking ?! Despite a certain mess, the Americans and their allies are evacuated in a fairly organized manner, and they have taken out a lot of locals. The flight of locals looks panicky, but that's another question.
    Already today we can say that in September the Taliban (requested in the Russian Federation) will additionally receive at their disposal weapons and military equipment of the Americans. They just won't have time to take everything out. As they will not have time to withdraw all those who collaborated with them all these years.

    There is no need to doubt very much: everything that the Americans cannot take out, they will destroy ...
    And not everyone will be able to fly out to the locals, really. Especially if you count the many who want to make economic migration on the sly.
  11. 0
    1 September 2021 13: 38
    No military base, or, say, a military camp even in the 19th century could be strengthened with pistols.
    They can only strengthen the organized criminal group, and then, everyone wants something more serious in case of a showdown.

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