Syria in the CSTO. Are new military alliances possible today?
Why did this question arise?
Yes, simply because General Kartapolov talked about the situation in Syria and how the Russian Aerospace Forces saved the situation by helping government forces in the fight against militants. Here is what the general said (quoted by RIA News):
Very clear and understandable.
However, some analysts for some reason interpreted these words as a settled issue that will soon be implemented by Russia. Strange, isn't it?
Imagine Sergei Pavlovich Korolev in 1961 answering the question of whether humans will settle on planets in other galaxies. The answer is obvious. They will settle down if there is a corresponding desire and appropriate opportunities.
So may or may not Syria become a member of the CSTO?
The answer to this question is simple if you read the CSTO Charter. And this answer will not differ from the answer of the Deputy Minister of Defense of Russia.
Yes, Syria can become a member of this organization, if there are no obstacles stipulated in the charter, and the desire of Syria itself and the CSTO member states is there. The conditions that the state, a candidate for membership in the CSTO, must fulfill are also clear.
Let me remind you of the difficult fate of this organization. For some reason, many have forgotten her.
On May 15, 1992, the former Soviet republics signed the Collective Security Treaty (CST). It was this agreement that became the basis for the creation of a full-fledged international organization. At the time of the signing of the Treaty (Tashkent Treaty), the members of the organization were the Republic of Armenia, the Republic of Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, the Russian Federation, the Republic of Tajikistan and the Republic of Uzbekistan.
The rest of the organization joined later. Azerbaijan signed the agreement on September 24, 1993, Georgia - September 9, 1993, Belarus - December 31, 1993.
The treaty entered into force on April 20, 1994. The term of the agreement is 5 years, with a subsequent extension for five years.
After a five-year period, the agreement was extended only by Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. The presidents of Azerbaijan, Georgia and Uzbekistan refused to renew the agreement. Thus, six states remained in the CST.
The CST became an organization in 2002. At the Moscow session of the CST (May 14), it was decided to create the organization, and in Chisinau (October 7), its Charter and the Agreement on the legal status were signed.
September 18, 2002 is considered the day when the CSTO began its work.
Seven years later, on February 4, 2009, the leaders of the CSTO member states approved the creation of the joint armed forces, which are better known today as the CRRF - the Collective Rapid Reaction Force.
But back to Syria.
Sometimes one gets the impression that the question of joining the CSTO of countries that were never part of the USSR arose suddenly and only now. Let me remind you that for the first time such a possibility was discussed in connection with another country. They seriously talked about Iran joining the CSTO. The noise then in the West was serious. After all, if this happened, such an agreement would radically change the situation in the region.
There is an active search for a new structure of international security
I have written many times that the world is now going through a most difficult period of restructuring of international relations.
The changes that are caused by the internal problems of the United States are global. Some analysts, in general, predict the collapse of the United States and even the disappearance of this state. It seems to me that such predictions are quite fantastic.
The United States can indeed go about the same path as Russia after the collapse of the USSR. But the potential of this state is so great that it is quite capable of withstanding and remaining a world power. I would say this: today the United States is turning from a simple first world power into the first among equals. And by "equals" I mean not only Russia and China.
No matter what we say or write about NATO, the alliance has played its role in maintaining European security. European states had to "gather in a flock", realizing that alone they simply do not represent anything militarily. And as long as the USSR and the OVD existed, the presence of NATO was justified.
However, after the collapse of the ATS, NATO began to look for enemies in other regions of the world. Thus, Asian countries faced European aggression against their own countries. It became clear that collective defense would be the most correct answer against such collective aggression.
However, Asia is not homogeneous. It is divided according to religious, ethnic, cultural and other parameters. Therefore, the formation of an "Asian NATO" is a very distant prospect. But states may well create alliances with fellow believers from other countries, with ethnically close neighbors, as well as with those with whom they actively trade, and the like.
Turkish President Erdogan was one of the first to understand this and began to use it. It is not openly said about this, but if we analyze the actions of the Turks over the past few years, such a conclusion will become obvious.
Russia, realizing that there are practically no allies in Europe today, and there are only “good friends” so far, naturally drew attention to the Asian region. The most powerful and potentially promising countries. Including Syria.
Currently Iran and Syria are becoming a serious force. The recent Israeli fiasco of firing rockets into Syria has shown that Syria must be reckoned with.
A hypothetical alliance between Syria and Iran or the CSTO is deadly for Israel. Probably, this is why nothing has developed yet, and controversial issues between Israel and its neighbors are not being resolved.
With the result that
Events in the world are developing at the speed of a car. And sometimes it is simply impossible to predict them. Therefore, even the most competent analysts occasionally make mistakes in the little things. Strategic directions are assessed correctly.
The time has come for the formation of new military-political alliances or the reform of old alliances. Such work is underway in almost all regions of the world.
This leads to aggravation of relations between some countries. Accordingly, the threat of not only local conflicts but also global war is growing. The leaders of the world powers speak about this openly. This is felt by the inhabitants of some countries. The example of Afghanistan is just right here.
Today it is difficult to talk about what will happen in 5-10 years.
Will the CSTO grow?
It may well be.
Will NATO expand?
Probably too.
Will there be any new military blocs?
Apparently, it is possible.
It is equally possible that events will take a different path: when the leading world powers agree among themselves, and the need for new military alliances will disappear.
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