Air Wars in the Future: Lessons from the Syrian Conflict in the Analysis of American Observers

The fighting in Syria has significantly changed the tactics of the world military aviation and made it possible to predict what air combat will look like in the foreseeable future. For example, the US Air Force in the Syrian campaign participated in operations for which they were practically not trained. Russian aviation, in turn, regularly flew to the positions of American troops, although the Russian Federation and the United States were not direct opponents in the Syrian conflict.

When Russian planes approached American positions, US Air Force fighters intercepted them and prevented them from dropping bombs near American and partner positions. American experts Aaron Stein and Ryan Fishel write about this, stressing that since the 1973 Arab-Israeli war, these were the first examples of such close "contact" between Russian and Western pilots

Great powers in the skies over Syria

According to the authors of War on the Rocks, the conflict in Syria is a wonderful example of great power competition, including in the air. It is wars on the periphery that are and will remain a way of sorting out relations between the great powers without direct confrontation, and air confrontation in this regard has a special role.

Since Syrian airspace was free for both Russian and American aviation, and Syrian air defense systems did not shoot down American aircraft, it is called a "favorable" environment for air operations. But it was precisely this "favorability" that significantly complicated the situation in the air, since American aircraft flew in close proximity to the aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces, while the latter were not considered as an enemy.

In addition, the United States did not degrade or disable Syria's integrated air defense system. At the same time, Damascus used air defense to fire at Israeli aircraft. On the other hand, Russia has improved and modernized the Syrian air defense system by deploying the S-300 and S-400 complexes in this country. The Americans had significant fears that Russian military specialists could be at the Syrian air defense facilities, and this also prevented the US Air Force from striking Syrian positions.

This policy was once applied by the USSR during the Cold War: the presence of Soviet military specialists at air defense facilities reduced the likelihood of Western aviation strikes against these facilities.

Of course, the US military sought to prevent Russian fighter jets from operating in close proximity to US and Allied positions. But, at the same time, the Pentagon did not have complete clarity: either Russian aviation was bombing areas near American positions to demonstrate to the United States its determination, or it was striking terrorist militants, performing the same role as the United States. The situation was changed by the emergence of a channel of direct communication between the military.

Syrian conflict and air confrontation scenarios

Air wars of the future, given the lessons of the Syrian conflict, are likely to have the character of great power aviation in a chaotic congested military space. That is, there will be no direct clashes between the great powers with a nuclear arsenal, but aviation will operate in the skies over third countries, as observers believe in the analysis on the pages of the aforementioned publication.

As noted by American authors, such a development of events is possible in the South China Sea, Afghanistan and even in outer space, which has also become a field of competition for great powers.

The war in Syria showed the exceptional dependence of aviation on reconnaissance resources and flight support, since it took thousands of hours of observation, "mapping" of positions, as well as the creation of a fuel supply system, and the launch of communications equipment to launch attacks on the same terrorist groups of American aviation.

But such a complex model of support for the air force's actions reduces their maneuverability and mobility, creates obstacles to operations in remote regions, where there are no US military bases nearby, like in Qatar. American pilots in Syria are faced with problems and scenarios that they have not previously encountered in other military conflicts, and they will have to take this into account in the future, which is especially significant against the background of growing tensions with Russia and China.

Comments

[rocket757]

Whenever it happens ... no one could escape this rule.

[Maz]

They were expelled from Afgan in disgrace, now it's Syria's turn.

[Cananecat]

Quote: Maz

They were expelled from Afgan in disgrace, now it's Syria's turn

In Syria, they do not meet the resistance they faced in Afghanistan, which means that there will be other manipulations.

[rocket757]

They are relatively comfortable in Syria, and they are opposed by the official armed forces, with which they can not stand on ceremony ... it is against any "barmaley" they are no warriors. Alas, this is how it is now.
They will cling until the ground under their feet starts to burn.

[knn54]

During the Second World War, the Wehrmacht was distinguished by a high level of interaction between ground forces and aviation, especially if we take into account that aviation was led by Goering's generals, and not army commanders.
According to the stories of the neighbor's son (helicopter pilot), this interaction was "lame" in Afghanistan
It seems that in Syria this interaction has been raised to a higher level.

[rocket757]

We will see who, where and what they learned!

[Corsair5912]

The Luftwaffe and the Wehrmacht interacted well only in the first year of the war, when they had the numerical and technical superiority of radio-equipped aircraft. When new Soviet aircraft and ground guidance stations equipped with radio stations appeared in the sky, the Fritz quickly ended their successful interaction.
Nothing in Afghanistan suffered, even the limited use of aviation made it possible to successfully restrain the Basmachi gangs from active massive operations. In Afghanistan, mountains and insufficient intelligence support were a significant obstacle to the use of aviation. Afghans are bad allies, interaction with them was ineffective.
In Syria, the situation is similar to Afghanistan, the unreliable weak allies of the Syrians, there are treacherous Jews, Turks and Americans nearby, always ready to stab in the back, and the Kremlin's conciliatory policy, which does not allow adequately responding to the provocations of enemies who are impudent from impunity.

[Asad]

Prevented strikes against the Syrian positions? !!! Or the translation of the curve or the authors are the same.

[Lionnvrsk]

Check it out for yourself. To some extent an interesting opinion.
https://warontherocks.com/2021/08/syria-airpower-and-the-future-of-great-power-war/

[Vladimir_2U]

According to the authors of War on the Rocks, the conflict in Syria is a wonderful example of great power competition, including in the air.

Competitions, of course, competitions are "Aviadarts" or "Tank Biathlon" whatever. so the authors certainly don't shine.

[Alexey Stepanov]

The fighting in Syria has significantly changed the tactics of world military aviation

Yes?
And how, let me inquire, is the way?

[ultra]

And where was the analysis?

[A. Privalov]

Quote: ultra

And where was the analysis?

Analysis? This is the "News" section.

[Thrifty]

What is the article about? I do not see an analysis at point-blank! Simply, a statement of the fact about a certain "gentleman's" tactics of bombing militants in relation to the opponent, or about obstacles in carrying out such actions ???

[sen]

They need to leave Syria, then there will be no problems.

[Krasnoyarsk]

Quote: sen

They need to leave Syria, then there will be no problems.

There will be. There is Israel nearby. Syria has more nasty things from him than from mattress toppers. Even though the USA are still "peacekeepers"

[Yuri Timonin_2]

The USA will simply have to remember that they are no longer the hegemon in the world and more and more often and not only the Russian Federation will remind them of this in different parts of the Earth!

[A.K.]

Nothing is clear, but the title is interesting

[Corsair5912]

In the skies of Syria, the difference between the US and Russian Air Forces is that the Americans are war criminals there, aggressors whom no one has invited to Syria, do not consider the dirty religious rabble to be a legitimate government. Russia came to Syria at the invitation of the legitimate government of Syria and has the legal right to be there.
In Syria, it is not the opposition who is fighting against the government, but American mercenaries defending the interests of the American Jewish bankers who seized the oil production, and the religious strife of the Syrians is just a fig leaf covering the Jewish shame. Israel and the United States are invaders and enemies of the people of Syria, and Russia is a country that does not allow them to go over to open genocide and plunder.

[Evgeny Ivanov_3]

Although he was a colonel, he farted loudly. Review history, IVI, I suppose they taught at the academy? When was it Israel who attacked with the aim of seizing? Syria, yes, it attacked, lost the Golan Heights, Egypt, also attacked, lost the Sinai Peninsula, Jordan attacked, suffered. Learn history, and also the colonel.

[jovanni]

Quote: Corsair5912

In Syria, it is not the opposition who is fighting against the government, but American mercenaries defending the interests of the American Jewish bankers who seized the oil production, and the religious strife of the Syrians is just a fig leaf covering the Jewish shame. Israel and the United States are invaders and enemies of the people of Syria, and Russia is a country that does not allow them to go over to open genocide and plunder.

When the aircraft of the US Air Force and the Russian Aerospace Forces meet in the same theater of operations, these slogans of yours have no practical meaning. Who cares who invited whom, or not. The main thing is the skill and personal qualities of the pilots, the modern military art of command and the capabilities of equipment and weapons. And all these statements about legitimacy - this is there ... for diplomats ...

[Evgeny Ivanov_3]

I, as well as the author, are very worried about the problems that arose before the US Air Force! Will they take them into account? And, suddenly, NO? I worry! Author, write more!