Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan join forces to protect borders with Afghanistan
Those of the readers who, in any way, have ever been connected with Afghanistan, quite reasonably ask themselves the question of protecting the border between Uzbekistan and Afghanistan. Let me remind you that the famous "Friendship Bridge", which for a long time served as the beginning of difficult Afghan roads, not only for military drivers and mechanics, but also for ordinary soldiers and officers of many units and subunits, and through which our units went after the end of the operation, was built in Uzbekistan.
The city of Termez and the Surkhandarya region of Uzbekistan are also known for the fact that a lot of soldiers of the Soviet army, before entering the territory of Afghanistan, there, at the training ground not far from this very bridge, underwent KMB and special training in specific military specialties. Three months of life in the desert, in tents, with constant occupations, exactly what will be needed in the war. Shooting and other special items ... And it was from this training center that the war began.
For someone, from boarding a helicopter at the nearby Ostrovnoy airfield in Kakaydy, for someone, just from boarding the Ural and this very "Friendship Bridge", and the road that stretched to the beautiful mountains in the south. And the drivers of the columns remember another Uzbek name - Uchkizil. It was there that the bodies of their cars were filled with artillery shells, food, equipment and other military equipment. And again the road to the bridge ...
The question of the border in the Surkhandarya region has been decided by our, Russia and Uzbekistan, military departments for a long time. The joint discussion of a possible problem in the border areas resulted in joint exercises of Russian and Uzbek military personnel at the Termez training ground. As well as the participation of Uzbek soldiers and officers in exercises in Tajikistan, which we wrote about on the pages of VO.
Exercises that will help unite the military of the three countries for joint action in a special period
In the material about the exercises in Tajikistan, I wrote that the commander of the Central Military District, Colonel-General Alexander Lapin, personally supervises the preparation of this event. On the one hand, it is normal for a military leader of this level to prepare the exercises that will be inspected by the Minister of Defense. On the other hand, General Lapin has tremendous power and, by his decision, can increase or decrease the number of troops participating in the exercise.
As you guessed, the commander of the Central Military District has increased the number of troops and military equipment. Today it is known that only from the Russian Federation, 1,8 servicemen, 420 units of military equipment, an assault aviation from the Kant airbase (Kyrgyzstan). All in all, Russian, Tajik and Uzbek units number 2,5 soldiers and up to 500 units of military equipment. But, the exercises will begin only on August 5th.
Today, however, we see teachings in precisely the places with which I began the material. Russian-Uzbek exercises at the Termez training ground are in full swing. The sky above the range is periodically filled with the roar of the engines of attack aircraft and helicopters of the Russian Air Force. 1500 soldiers and officers of the two armies practice the tasks of organizing defense, counterstrikes and driving the enemy out of the territory of the Surkhandarya region. The sand pillars lift the tracks and wheels of 200 pieces of equipment.
Accustomed to a different scale, Russian readers may think that the attention to the problem of destabilization in Afghanistan is not too great. In fact, this is not the case at all. This concentration of forces on the border is quite sufficient to prevent a single militant from crossing the Amu Darya or crossing the border in other places.
The main task of the trilateral exercises was clearly defined by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu:
Has the situation in Afghanistan changed?
Those readers who are familiar with the materials on Afghanistan already published on VO will not be surprised that nothing new is happening. Events are developing according to the predicted scenario. The main battles the Taliban (ex. In the RF) are fighting in the south and west of the country. The militants managed to enter Lashkar Gah, the provincial capital of Helmand. True, to the credit of the government troops, it has not yet been possible to completely take the city.
Why would the Taliban need Lashkar Gah?
It's simple. It is through this city that two important roads pass.
First, the capture of the capital city of Helmand means control over the supply of agricultural products.
Secondly, the main road between Herat and Kandahar passes through Lashkar Gakh.
And thirdly, there are no real confirmed seizures of the provincial capitals so far. Lashkar Gah may become the first such city.
The north-west of the country, in particular Herat, is also quite important for the government forces and for the Taliban militants (request in the Russian Federation). Moreover, two objects are important at once. The city itself and the airport. To date, the militants have not achieved any significant success. Except perhaps the seizure of part of the road between Herat and the airfield. It is known that it is in this province that the special forces of the Afghan army are currently involved.
In my opinion, the most serious battles today are in Kandahar. And the most trained militants are now there. Moreover, according to some indirect information and unverified reports of some media outlets, it is Kandahar that will become the temporary capital of the future Taliban state (request in the Russian Federation).
Who will be the next "stabilizer of Afghanistan" after the flight of the United States
I cannot yet understand the desire of the militants to reach the border with Pakistan. Considering that Pakistan is in fairly good terms with China. I recall the well-known description of these relations by the Pakistani ambassador to Beijing:
It seems to me that even the Taliban (request in the Russian Federation) understands that the Russian army will not help Kabul, the US army has already fled from Afghanistan. There remains one serious power that has not yet tried to "calm down" this country.
It looks like preparing a trap for the PRC. But, alas, there is still nothing to prove this idea.
I don't think Beijing will take any real action to establish its dominance in Afghanistan. Become an ally of the militants and lose face? Defending the pro-American government in Kabul? Agree, it's a rather strange choice between a very bad script and a very, very bad script. And it is not in the tradition of China to openly get involved in dubious scams.
NATO is another matter. More precisely, the ambitions of one of the members of the alliance. Namely Turkey.
Let me remind you that in June of this year, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, on the sidelines of the NATO summit, already expressed this idea to Joe Biden. None of them told the press what the two presidents decided after their conversation. But…
There is also NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. Something "leaked" right here.
It is clear that among the Taliban (requested in the Russian Federation) there are also quite knowledgeable analysts who calculated the ambitions of the Turks in the same way. What does Turkey always play on? On the Islamic factor. United believers, this is the main thing that helps Erdogan. But this will not work with the Taliban.
Already several times from various representatives of the militants one could hear a rather simple statement for understanding. Any foreign soldier, be it a consultant, instructor, security guard of some organization, etc., will be considered an occupier and, accordingly, will be destroyed or taken prisoner.
What is this if not a direct appeal to the "assistants from Turkey" and a prediction of their future fate if they somehow appear in Afghanistan?
Yes, there are relatively few militants. According to Western experts, something like 60 thousand bayonets. The Turkish army is much more powerful. But today the Taliban are successfully fighting the Afghan government army of 300 thousand bayonets.
One question raises doubts. It is very difficult to accuse Erdogan of squandering the country's budget. I can’t imagine how it will be possible to recover the costs of the operation legally, without drugs.
In short, most likely, at the NATO summit, the Turkish president was simply probing the American president's response to Ankara's purchase of Russian air defense systems.
Short resume
Events in Afghanistan are developing quite predictably. It seems to me that the Taliban (requested in the Russian Federation) do not intend to share power in the country with anyone else. And the neighbors are not very eager to take this power away. The position is clear.
If someone nevertheless decides to take power from the Taliban (request in the Russian Federation), work on the side of the militants, as it was in the Soviet-Afghan war.
Again, I do not believe that the militants will establish full control over the country. Although, I admit that the northern regions can be captured for some time. Purely hypothetical. Moreover, if the Taliban (requested in the RF) acts alone, then it is quite possible that in those provinces where it will establish power, the situation is likely to stabilize.
It is another matter if other terrorist organizations, which are allegedly defeated in neighboring countries, become active in Afghanistan. The members of these organizations are now, among other things, on the territory of this country. This is where options come in. If such activation occurs, then the track of the development of the situation becomes rather blurred.
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