Why are we so poor when we got so rich
For the first time in positive territory
In the last days of July, Rosstat, not without pathos and even claims to victorious reports, said that for the first time during a pandemic in the second quarter of 2021, an increase in the real incomes of Russians was recorded. In annual terms, our dear readers, our income has grown by as much as 6,8 percent.
This is more than inflation and even more than the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, which it is unclear why it was recently raised immediately by a percentage - up to 6,5% per annum. I have big doubts that in this way they are trying to restrict access to money to those who before that they got it almost for free.
How they get to the majority of ordinary citizens, I will try to tell not now, but in one of my next comments. In the meantime, let me remind you of a decrease in citizens' incomes in the three quarters of 2020, and in the first quarter of this year - by 3,7 percent.
So we have just begun to return what the pandemic took away from us and everything connected with it. At the moment, those very real disposable incomes of the population are still 0,8 percent lower than the same period in 2019. Feels like, you see, things are even worse.
Let me remind you the wording from textbooks on economics - "real disposable income" - this is "all consumer income minus mandatory expenses, adjusted for inflation." But do not forget, too, that the 6,8 percent increase mentioned is too unevenly distributed.
Most of it is taken by 20% of workers with already high earnings, and the remaining 80% of potential recipients account for less than half of the total increase. And this is by no means my inventions, this is, again, data from Rosstat and sociologists who lie, in fact, only by order.
Why is everything wrong
Why are we only getting richer on paper and not in real life? The Central Bank, the very one that for some reason raised lending rates, but is not able to force banks to raise rates on deposits, they say that people are gaining too many loans.
A lot in the sense that there is practically nothing to give to the majority. Income does not allow. It is difficult to understand why, then, banks give such loans? And they give willingly. And isn't that why the Central Bank has raised its rate almost to the skies? To get into loans discouraged?
However, in our most important credit institution, they prefer softer, streamlined and, frankly, sometimes tricky wording. The growth of lending, it turns out, in Russia "is not supported by the expansion of production." And this can "lead to a drop in the incomes of Russians."
And all because the public's debt burden "contributes to the separation of the value of goods and assets from fundamental factors." And also - "the acceleration of inflation, a drop in economic growth and real incomes of citizens."
With the incomes of the people, the situation was, according to official statistics, something like this.
On average, this is 35,7 thousand rubles per month. But even here, 20% of Russians have an average income of 82,5 thousand rubles, while the remaining 80% have a little more than 20 thousand. And a fifth of our citizens are generally forced to work hard for a monthly salary of 10 thousand rubles or less.
Polls and questions
Believing sociological polls is the lot of the most naive. However, they are sometimes able to tell the cruel truth. The only problem is who and how to ask. The so-called representative sample - that is, an attempt to form truly objective assessments, this is still all right.
But with the posing of questions, the situation is at all what is called - to the envy of enemies. The pandemic has driven many into the grave, but into a corner - just so many. And now you have to somehow live with it. Or survive. The latter is much more likely.
At least three quarters of Russians, as before, that is, before Covid-19 with a dubious pandemic, live, or rather exist, just "on the brink of survival." Statistical data ruthlessly state that 75,7% of Russian households have big problems with the acquisition of basic necessities.
The overwhelming majority of Russians manage to make ends meet almost by a miracle. However, readers will be surprised that before all the coronavirus nightmares, there were no fewer such compatriots with problems.
A similar survey in 2018 gave an indicator of 79,5% for the number of families who had difficulty buying basic necessities, as well as paying for utilities. And five years ago - in 2016, there were even more such households - 84,6%.
However, after getting acquainted with the questions that were asked by the extras five and three years ago, and now, the conclusion suggests itself - people have not forgotten how to be poor in Russia.
Readers have the right to ask: why am I so cruel to my compatriots?
And because when they are asked about how much they really need to live "no worse than people", the numbers are very confusing.
Why?
Yes, because they do not really struggle with the real incomes of the majority of residents, not only of the capitals, but also of the “impoverished” hinterland. We have already said about income, about expenses - a little lower, but about surprisingly modest requests here and now.
Life has become no better, but at least more fun
Russian households need at least 61 thousand rubles to make ends meet. Agree, not so much. And only 2,5 thousand more than a couple of years ago, that is, shortly before the pandemic. In order to calculate such amounts, the same Rosstat conducted another large-scale and, of course, absolutely representative survey.
Neither I myself nor the readers, or rather, the overwhelming majority of them, in this poll, I have no doubt, did not participate. Who - yes, let him confess in the comments. But it's not even about that, but about how the questions were formulated.
Rosstat experts asked questions that ultimately boil down to how much the respondents themselves assess the ability to make ends meet. It is interesting that last fall, as soon as the people sighed a little after all the lockdowns and quarantines, the people wanted to have at least 60,9 thousand rubles of income.
As you can see, the growth in requests among the mass of the population is minimal. Even in a pandemic, compared to 2018, when the average amount of “minimum desires” was 58,5 thousand rubles, people wanted more - by two and a half thousand rubles at once.
It seems that everything was deliberately calculated so that the total amounts were just modest and turned out. To report to the top that if living at the peak of the fight against Covid-19 and not getting better, then certainly - more fun.
Is inflation to blame or Covid?
Nevertheless, today you can hear the cruel but truth from Rosstat. Thus, it is reported that in June 2021, the real size of the average monthly pension, adjusted for inflation, in Russia decreased by 0,8% compared to June last year.
Of course, irresistible inflation led to such an unpleasant result. Due to the disruption of business ties caused by the pandemic and the measures taken against it, a lot of goods are now turning into a shortage, which allows retail chains to shamelessly raise prices.
In addition, the downright rise in fuel prices and the increase in utility tariffs are also affecting. The authorities are looking for means to fulfill their social obligations, to which they are also prompted by the upcoming elections in the fall.
Pensions have actually been declining for several months, although Rosstat has said so directly about this for almost the first time. Back in January, there was an increase of 0,4 percent. But already in February, the figure was minus 0,1%, in March there was a decrease by 0,2%, in April and May - by 0,1% each, but it seemed that it was already impossible to hush up the June jump.
And the fact that at the same time, in nominal terms, the average pension has grown quite noticeably - by 5,6% compared to June 2020, reaching 15 rubles, in fact, does not change anything.
Poverty rolls over the older generation like a cruel inevitability. And this is after the pension reform, advertised as an equally inevitable necessity, and for some - and the "great blessing" of the pension reform.
Are we not the poorest?
Is it worth it, after such admissions from Rosstat, to be surprised that, according to the calculations of analysts at Credit Suisse, cited in the annual Global Wealth Report, last year Russia was in the top five countries in terms of the rate of decline in the well-being of people.
However, only 50 of the world's largest economies were considered. Nevertheless, the figures of the Swiss experts cannot fail to impress. And to be honest, they even scare.
For example, over the past year alone, the welfare of Russian households decreased by 338 billion - not rubles, but dollars. This is in nominal terms. According to this indicator, Russia is second only to India and Brazil, where the total losses very noticeably exceed half a trillion dollars - minus 594 billion and 839 billion.
At the same time, Russians are getting poorer not only greatly, but also quickly - by almost 10 percent every year. But is it worth worrying if Brazilians get poorer annually by 23 percent, and in the United Arab Emirates, citizens lose 13,1 percent of their income each year? Only here the starting positions of the latter, it seems, are by no means the same as those of the Russians?
- Tatyana Petrova
- fair.ru, dnpr.com.ua, bazaistoria.ru
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