India will receive the S-400 Triumph this year. Modern version of the politics of non-alignment
Source: mil.ru
Washington faced new difficulties in foreign policy. In principle, these difficulties were expected. The United States has gone too far in its attempts to convince the world of its own exclusivity.
Too often, American soldiers, American planes, American missiles and bombs find themselves far away from the United States proper. Too often it turns out that the Americans abandon their allies at the most difficult moments without any explanation.
The open confrontation between the United States and China and Russia has made the establishment of at least friendly relations with India and, at the most, vassal relations with New Delhi paramount.
In fact, today India is the only powerful power that is in conflict with the PRC. The only state with sufficient land formations capable of waging a real war with the Chinese.
Given the presence of a fairly serious pro-American lobby in New Delhi, the task of turning Indians into "best friends" could be successfully solved. Washington would play on the confrontation between India, Pakistan and China in Aksaychin. Hindus, in their quest to conquer and establish complete control over this high-mountainous desert (plateau height 5000 meters above sea level), most likely, would have made a deal with Washington.
If it weren't for Russia ...
But ... Russia prevented the implementation of this plan. No, Moscow did not express concern. Did not provide military or any other assistance to the conflicting parties. The Kremlin's position is simple and clear. This high-mountainous desert is not even inhabited by people.
The problem isn't worth a damn. Establish a joint area of responsibility and that's it. Let the Chinese, Indian and Pakistani border guards play football with each other for nothing to do.
So what happened that Russia was the reason for the failure of the next brilliant plan of the Pentagon? Almost nothing in 2021! Nothing yet. But back in 2018 it happened. It was then that a contract was signed between India and Russia for the supply of five regiments of the S-400 air defense system. And the value of this contract is estimated at more than $ 5 billion.
Delivery times were quite distant. The end of deliveries is scheduled for early 2025. That is why they could not calculate in Washington all the danger of this contract.
We were unable to comprehend the speed of change in the international situation. It boiled down to threats and persuasion, the main idea of which was that Russian systems were less reliable than American ones.
Even when Denis Manturov, Minister of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation, announced in February 2020 the start of the contract, in fact, the start of production of these very SAMs, the Americans were not particularly wary.
And now, about three months ago, the United States received information that the first S-400 regiment in India would take up combat duty at the end of this year or in January next. Moreover, the General Director of Rosoboronexport Alexander Mikheev personally stated this to the Interfax correspondent.
This means that the supply of the complexes will begin this fall. It is clear that such weapons take time to assemble and train personnel. Even though the personnel were trained in Russia, the minimum time to bring the complex into working condition is a month. Hence, deliveries will be made in October-December 2021. The arithmetic is simple.
The emergence of modern and effective weapons in the Indian army not only strengthens India's position in the region, but also means that New Delhi is becoming partially independent from the United States in terms of military supplies.
It is clear that such contracts are not only one-time money making. This is a long-term cooperation in the field of maintenance, repair, modernization of the complexes. Cooperation that will have a very positive effect on India and will be very beneficial for Russia.
And the safety of US aircraft, in the event of any conflict in the region, with the advent of the S-400, no one guarantees. I don't think it's worth explaining why. And the Pentagon is very sensitive to the ability of any enemy to destroy American equipment and weapons.
The US has virtually no ability to put pressure on New Delhi
Americans are well aware that the usual tactics of pressure on governments and presidents of other countries, which have been successfully used by the United States for many years, are currently inapplicable to India. But, as I have pointed out many times before, Americans are ruined by their love of proven solutions to problems. There have been attempts to intimidate the Indians.
At the same time, the CAATSA law ("On Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions") was used quite successfully. On direct instructions from President Trump, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in late June 2019 explicitly recommended New Delhi "think about an alternative purchase"(Of course, American complexes - the author).
Lower-ranking US foreign policy officials spoke directly about the application of sanctions precisely in accordance with the CAATSA law. What caused a backlash in Indian society. Indian Foreign Minister Subramaniam Jaishankar actually sent the US Secretary of State, stating that the Americans had nothing to do with India's affairs.
The Indian Foreign Minister's response was heard. Aside from what has nothing to do with the real state of affairs, New Delhi is really not afraid of Washington. especially in those matters that relate to weapons. Hindus have long understood that the thesis “the customer is always right” works not only in small shops, but also when buying goods worth billions of dollars.
The new US President Joe Biden, apparently, decided to continue the attempts of his predecessor. How else to assess the recent statement of the current Secretary of State Anthony Blinken about the possibility of imposing sanctions against India due to the acquisition of Triumphs? How to interpret the March statement by US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin with an appeal “do not use Russian equipment"In their armies?
It looks pretty funny. It is somewhat reminiscent of the situation with SP-2. Concern, appeals, threats, but "the caravan is moving on," and everyone understands that it will not stop. Not staying in Turkey, not staying in India. The American Secretary of State came up with a beautiful wording:
"Let's see how events develop in the coming months."
Everyone understands "how events will develop." Russia will supply the complexes to India, and the army leadership of this country will use them in accordance with its own plans for the defense of the country. Russian instructors will spend some time at the positions of the new air defense systems and that's it ...
And the United States will conduct another high-profile PR campaign with the main idea - "I couldn't, I couldn't." They will tell the "world community" that the S-400 systems do not in any way affect the friendly relations of the two great powers, the United States and India.
What is the result? ..
We are accustomed to perceiving the modern world as an arena of confrontation between three world powers - the United States, China and Russia. It's like the finals of an athletics or swimming competition at the current Tokyo Olympics. Many athletes reached the final, but everyone understands perfectly well that two or three applicants will compete for medals. And if suddenly someone else wins one of the medals, there is a noise in the world about an incredible miracle, about a great victory that has not happened ... for years.
At the same time, we somehow do not say that those who participated in the final had their own goals. For some, reaching the final itself is already a victory, someone is gaining experience for future victories, and someone simply represents their little country in front of the whole world. But we are not interested in them. We are interested in those who will stand on the podium with medals in their hands.
India's purchase of a large batch of S-400 complexes is in many ways similar to the final of the competition. The country is solving its own problems. The country shows to those "who claim medals" that it may not be a champion, but also a finalist. It is no coincidence that the Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs of India, in their speeches, spoke quite harshly about those who are trying to impose their will.
So what's going on? Is India our friend and enemy of the United States? Or is India doing the same as Turkey, striving to be "affectionate to the calf"? Neither one nor the other. India is indeed similar to Turkey in one respect. In an effort to maintain their own independence.
There are many problems in the country. The country, despite its nuclear status - by the way, for the information of one "politician" from a neighboring state, has not solved many economic and social problems. Problems arise constantly already because India is the second, and maybe the first country in terms of population.
The arms market has always been profitable. Not only in the sense of the huge price of modern technology or weapons... But also the fact that this very armament became the incentive for the emergence of good-neighborly relations.
A contract for the supply of weapons was automatically followed by a contract for its maintenance and repair, then for the supply of ammunition, etc. Ultimately, the armies of the countries were forced to conduct joint exercises so that the personnel learned the capabilities of their weapons visually.
Today, the Indian army is confidently among the top 10 strongest armies in the world. The equipment and weapons are the most modern, from different countries of the world. For example, two aircraft carriers of the Indian Navy are Viraat (formerly British Hermes) and Vikramaditya (former Soviet Admiral Gorshkov). At the same time, the country itself is building light aircraft carriers. The first Indian aircraft carrier, Vikrant, is ready.
So the contract for the supply of the S-400 Triumph should not be perceived as a victory. Our designers, production workers, specialists from Rosoboronexport won. They defeated competitors from another country. The diplomats softened the blow of US diplomacy to the Indians.
On the whole, it seems to me, India has shown the countries of the top three that it does not intend to participate in the "get-together". No matter how much the politicians of other countries want it. I get the impression that modern India is pursuing the same policy that Jawaharlal Nehru once proclaimed. Anti-colonialism, preservation of peace and neutrality, non-participation in military-political blocs. What we call the "policy of non-alignment".
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