Russia: from systemic crisis to turmoil
Photo: Gage Skidmore
Speaking on Tuesday at the headquarters of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, the American head recalled a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Geneva. Biden said:
“He had a real problem - he was sitting at the top of an economy that has a nuclear weapon, oil wells and nothing else. He knows that his real problem is dwindling resources and opportunities, which, in my opinion, makes him even more dangerous. Russia can be a potentially dangerous competitor in the future, as significant disruptions in cyberspace can lead to armed conflict. I cannot guarantee this, but it is most likely that we will end up in a real armed war with a major power. "
The end of the raw, semi-colonial model
Of course, Biden exaggerated about the big war, but otherwise he is right.
Blind copying of Western standards and methods in the 90s of the last century has brought today's Russia to the brink of disaster. Social justice has been violated, most of the country's wealth belongs to one percent of the population, and the imbalance is constantly increasing. The poor get poorer, the rich get richer. Bureaucratization, corruption, monetization of all forms of social life have reached previously unimaginable forms. The issue of vaccination has sharply increased the division of society. Representatives of the "elite" allow themselves provocative, frankly insolent remarks about the common people.
The economy of the "pipe" or, if wearing rose-colored glasses, the position of an "energy superpower", as recent years have shown, is leading Russia to complete collapse. From 2022, the Russian Federation will pay the EU a hydrocarbon tax, in essence, “tithe” on all raw materials exports. It is obvious that big capital will pay it not from their profits, but from the wallets of ordinary Russians. Through the growth of both fuel prices, utility tariffs, various taxes, and prices for food, building materials, housing, transportation, and with the help of further devaluation of the ruble and other mechanisms. The Central Bank will also play its role, raising the refinancing rate. In general, the incomes of the raw material oligarchs will be saved. They will become even richer, and the people poorer.
Since the 90s, the Russian economy has been tied to the West and the interests of large international and Russian capital. The economy of Russia is tightly tied to big capital, the wealth of billionaire oligarchs. Part of the financial flows support the bureaucracy, the “vertical of power,” pocket political parties and security officials. All these expenses do not have any positive effect on the country. The quality of management is constantly falling, and the number of officials at the trough is growing. They are trying to replace the declining efficiency with the number of bureaucrats, but to no avail.
Systemic crisis
When he came to power, V. Putin did not change the basic model of the economy and the political superstructure of the Russian Federation. He only established a "vertical of power", placed his people and seized control of the main economic flows. The model has remained the same - the sale of resources and remnants of high technologies of the Soviet civilization (atom, part of the military-industrial complex, space). In the early 2000s, an external factor helped - the rapid rise in prices for raw materials in world markets. The "fat years" began. It was believed that one can simply sell raw materials (oil, gas, metals, gold, diamonds, timber, etc.), and the rest can be bought. Yachts and civil aircraft, foreign top managers and French helicopter carriers.
The Russian economy grew rapidly until 2008. For the elite, the nascent middle class, it was a celebration of life. High incomes, vacations abroad, children study in the best schools in Europe and the world. Villas and apartments in Florida and London. There was so much money that even crumbs were poured into ordinary people. Wages and pensions grew. A consumer society has been built in Russia, turning a blind eye to the ongoing processes of internal degradation. In particular, the Russian people continued to die out, thousands of villages disappeared, the school degraded, which was instilled with Western standards, etc. Dreams of an "energy superpower" emerged. Like, we Europe - raw materials, and Europe of Russia - technologies, goods. General prosperity from Lisbon to Vladivostok.
The global crisis that broke out in 2008, which was a manifestation of the general crisis of capitalism, buried all hopes of Moscow for a beautiful life. True, the first years in Moscow were still cheerful, they made statements that everything would return to normal. We had accumulated large reserves, it was possible to wait. A structural crisis has begun, that is, a contradiction between global trends and the raw material model of the Russian economy. In principle, the structural crisis can still be overcome. It is necessary to change the model of management and economy. In particular, at the same time, the Chinese "world factory" faced the same problem.
What have the Chinese done?
We took a course towards the accelerated development of the internal market, the complete elimination of poverty and the creation of a society of average income. The PRC's domestic market was supposed to provide further growth. The Chinese literally flooded the country and the economy with money, received a huge debt, but in general they solved the problem. Poverty was defeated, development continued. And they became a threat to the global project of the globalists, since representatives of the national elite began to dominate in Beijing.
From crisis to disaster
And the Russian leaders continued the course “we could hold out for a day, but stand for the night”. But the reserves were melting, and with them illusions and hopes. The structural crisis gradually developed into a systemic one. In the early 2010s, in order to preserve the old model, Moscow switched to “optimization” of internal resources, cutting off secondary and “redundant” functions and systems. In particular, they "optimized" education. They say that the rich and "successful" themselves will decide the issue of the education of children, and for the children of peasants and workers, even the remnants of Soviet education is a luxury. Health care was "optimized" by destroying up to 40% of infectious diseases wards. The current virus outbreak of covid has shown that the remnants of medicine cannot cope with even the smallest threat. Resources were withdrawn primarily from the social sphere. With a simultaneous rise in prices for all categories of goods and services, an increase in taxes and utility tariffs. Depreciation of the ruble. Strategy: “people - new oil”.
Pension reform is in the same category. If funds were mobilized for the benefit of the people, as during the Great War, then everything would be clear. Tighten your belts, endure to win. Then recovery and rapid growth. However, the aim of the current withdrawal of funds from society is "stability". Freezing the old semi-colonial, raw material "pipe" model. With a westernized elite with capital, families and children abroad. However, it is impossible to maintain “stability” indefinitely; a systemic crisis develops into a stage of disintegration, catastrophe (unrest). Operation "virus" ("Pandemic" - a tool of world war) only intensifies the tendencies of disintegration, pushes countries and people towards aggression, uprisings and war.
Thus, the quality of management and the economic model of the "pipe" (raw material semi-colony) have led to the fact that now in the Russian Federation there is a complete stagnation of everything - population, economy, industry, medium and small business, science and education. This stagnation is much more dangerous than Brezhnev's, since in the Brezhnev era there was an opportunity to enter a new round of development. The structure and system, created in accordance with Western conditions and standards in the 90s, no longer develop. And there can be no stopping, just like "stability", only decay, degradation and further - a catastrophe of the social system.
The only way out in such a situation is an analogue of Stalin's “great cleansing” or a new oprichnina named after Ivan the Terrible. To "squeeze" big capital, the elite, to carry out its forcible recovery and nationalization (russification), with the simultaneous rejection of any goal-setting instructions from the West: from the UN, USA, NATO, EU, WHO, IMF, etc., and interference in activities government and institutions that determine the country's development.
Distribute the funds received among the population with the help of state programs aimed at restoring the basic potential of education and science, medicine and Russian culture, industry and agriculture. Otherwise, the westernized elite, which has led the Russian Federation to a stagnant swamp, will lead the country and the people to a new catastrophe following the example of 1917 and 1991.
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