Stanislav Tarasov: Generals' scenarios come true in Turkey

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Stanislav Tarasov: Generals' scenarios come true in TurkeyIn the Turkish media began to actively exaggerate the theme of the resignation of Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmed Davutoglu in connection with his Syrian policy. On the likelihood of such a course of events REGNUM wrote back in May. But now this idea - in different variations - sounds already openly in the mouths of many politicians, but above all, opposition. So the deputy chairman of the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) of Turkey, Gursen Tekin, on CNN Turk, confirmed that in the political backstage they think that Davutoglu "created a headache not only for the Justice and Development party, but also for all of Turkey, and now Erdogan is preparing to remove him from his post. " The oppositionist claimed that Davutoglu failed Turkey’s foreign policy, and Namík Korhan will replace him in this position, who, according to Tekin, “is an important person for Turkey’s foreign policy.” Earlier, a group of deputies of the same Turkish opposition party, the Supreme Assembly, expressed a vote of no confidence in the minister. According to the newspaper Cumhuriyet, in their statement to the parliament, in particular, it was said: "Because of the unsuccessful activities of Minister Davutoglu, the surrounding countries blame Turkey and threaten the country. There are new problems with neighboring countries, and Turkey is on the verge of war, deprived of the ability to pursue an independent policy, the country's national security is under threat. " And a reconnaissance aircraft recently shot down in Syrian airspace became another reason for the NPP leader Kemal Kilichdaroglu to make a statement that “in stories There was not a single political figure in Turkey who addressed the countries of the East on behalf of the West, as Erdogan and his ministers do. "

The truth that in big politics often there is no smoke without fire was confirmed by the fact that the other day Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmed Davutoglu arranged a three-hour meeting with journalists, at which he voiced his main but significant thesis: "I don’t have a personal policy I am implementing the policy of the Turkish government. " This is an open hint that forces have appeared in the ruling party of Turkey that are trying to write off all the failures in the foreign policy of the country only to the Foreign Minister, to make him a scapegoat.

The fact that the leadership of Turkey is going on undercover tough political struggle, many experts guessed. The tip of the iceberg can be considered the statement made at the end of July by the adviser to the President of Turkey Ahmet Sevyar on the possibility of Abdullah Gul to run for another presidential term. True, the deputy chairman of the ruling party, Hussein Celik, tried to correct this attack by the president. In an interview with the Milliyet newspaper, he assured that "between Gul and Erdogan there are deep friendship and fraternal relations that will not be sacrificed because of the struggle for the position", that "the friendship of these people passed many trials, and if Erdogan is a presidential candidate, Gul will not stand as a candidate. " However, the President’s Office has made it publicly clear that in the relationship between the head of state and the Prime Minister, not everything looks straightforward.

There are other signs of opposition to Gul-Erdogan. Being in prison on charges of preparing a coup d'état (Operation Balyoz (Sledgehammer)) Rear Admiral Fatih Ilgar posted on Twitter a sound recording stating that "there is a struggle between Gul and Erdogan, as a result of which one of them will leave the political field and that the Turkish armed forces prepared for this development. This gap reaches its peak. "

What is the camp where Foreign Minister Davutoglu found himself? Until recently, the triumvirate Erdogan-Gul-Davutoglu was called "one of the most important factors in the latest Middle Eastern history." Because he implemented the Turkish foreign policy concept - "zero problems with neighbors." Initially, this doctrine was perceived as a desire of Turkey to create favorable external conditions for the implementation of modernization policies, the rejection of isolationist policies while maintaining stability in the region. At the same time, Ankara was aware of the fact that it needs to have constructive, trusting relations with the existing geopolitical and regional centers of power. Using the vast experience of maneuvering and diplomatic skill accumulated over the centuries, Turkey could talk about great successes in its foreign policy. It was a stormy political, and then an economic affair with Russia, balanced relations were built with Iran and Syria, and relations with China were improved. These factors Turkish diplomacy rightly introduced into the asset the doctrine of "strategic depth", which brought it to the level of a leading regional power. This is exactly the position that Davutoогlu’s recorded in his already mentioned three-hour interview. “In the first years of my tenure as minister, our country had embassies only in 93 countries of the world,” he said. “Now this number is 131. Secondly, the abolition of entry visas to Russia seemed something impracticable, but today it is a reality. We were also able to ensure our country's involvement in all international structures. " By the way, it is no coincidence that in the 2010 year, according to Time magazine, Davutoglu together with Turkish Deputy Prime Minister Ali Babacan entered the list of the hundred most influential personalities of the world. As the newspaper Zaman wrote, "while Europe is struggling with the financial crisis, and the Arab world is drawn into political conflicts, Turkey has become a regional example of economic growth and democratization, both in domestic and in foreign policy." The role of the architect of Turkey's new foreign policy was played by 53-year-old Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmed Davutoglu, who earned international prestige for his "tirelessness and work ethic."

What happened next? According to the former director general of the Ministry of Industry and Trade of Turkey, author of the book "Flooded by the West", political scientist Bulent Esinoglu, "somewhere in the beginning of 2011, the foreign policy of the ruling party began to hide behind the US State Department, which was directly reflected in many statements by the Minister of Foreign Affairs Turkey's Ahmed Davutoglu. " That is, Davutoglu either joined Erdogan completely, or led his game, balancing between the two "centers", which affected, in particular, his determination to sign the well-known Zurich protocols on settling relations with Armenia. But then, according to Esinoglu, “Erdogan began to identify the situation in the region only with the American project Big Middle East (BWI), and forced his foreign minister to look at all the problems of the region“ through this geopolitical window. ”As a result, The phenomenon of the Arab Spring began, Turkey abruptly changed vectors in its own Middle Eastern policy. Speaking to parliamentarians, Foreign Minister Davutoglu already stated: "A new Middle East is being born, where Turkey is the hostess, it is in Avanga It is able to determine the future of the Middle East as the leader of a new regional order. ”At the same time, he proposed a new term for Turkish foreign policy -“ reasonable power ”, which quickly led not only to confrontation with almost all neighbors, but also deprived Turkish diplomacy intellectual component, the loss of the ability to competently adapt to the emerging complex political situation in the region. It became obvious that Turkey’s power was overvalued, its underestimation of the possibilities for demonstrating its influence in gion by other centers of power, in particular from Russia, China and Iran. It is this factor that increasingly began to push Turkey into the embrace of the West, which, right before our eyes, turned it into a toolkit for the implementation of the “Greater Middle East” project, on the other hand, to introduce the country into a zone of potential regional destabilization. For example, Turkey initially supported Gaddafi, urging Western countries not to interfere in the events taking place in Libya. But then Ankara "unexpectedly" changed its attitude towards Libya. Similarly, Ankara initially supported its ally, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, then "changed its mind."

There was a situation in which the forces that came to power in the countries of the victorious "Arab Spring" began to perceive Turkey negatively. Exactly the same dynamics is observed in Turkey’s relations with neighboring Iran. The Turks signed an agreement with the United States on the deployment on their territory of early warning radars belonging to the European missile defense system, which brought it to the level of confrontation with Iran and in fact with Russia. As a result, as the Turkish newspaper Radikal wrote, "Turkey under US pressure began to return to the cold war's foreign policy."

But the main geopolitical phenomenon that took place is still different. Now if the Kurds of Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran unite, then Ankara will begin a real geopolitical nightmare in the form of creating an independent Kurdistan and the inevitable loss of part of its territory. “We will not allow the formation of a terrorist structure near our border,” said Ahmed Davutoglu, speaking on Turkish television. “We reserve this right ... whether it is Al Qaeda or the Kurdish Workers Party. We consider this a national affair security and take all necessary measures. " That is, if earlier terrorists in Turkey meant only Kurdish militants, now it has become a refuge for al-Qaeda. A similar statement was recently made by Prime Minister Erdogan. We only note that the destabilization of the situation in Turkey and around it is included in the scenarios developed by the American project “Greater Middle East” and is one of the variants of operation “Baloz” voiced by the Turkish media, when the “emergency” takes effect factor, and power in the country gradually flows into the hands of generals. So it was precisely the problems of foreign policy that began to ruin the internal balance of political power in the country.

But so far, it seems, the resignation of only Foreign Minister Davutoglu is being prepared. As for the opposition, which publicly initiates this process, it is unlikely that it will offer a real alternative to foreign policy, and appeals to return to the status quo policy will mean either reanimation of the ideas of Kemal Ataturk or the new course already implemented by the generals.
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23 comments
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  1. +1
    6 September 2012 15: 33
    TODAY WE ARE ALL AMERICANS? laughing
    1. Evgen2509
      -1
      6 September 2012 16: 52
      TODAY WE ARE ALL AMERICANS?

      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hBgAQc-MnGM
  2. +3
    6 September 2012 15: 59
    where the amers put their nose in, everywhere the chaos begins and chaos.
    1. 0
      7 September 2012 10: 29
      And they need chaos. In murky water, fish ...
  3. Andrei.B
    +4
    6 September 2012 16: 03
    no, but what did they want? and sit down and eat a pie? Especially from Asashai claw? Old Bitch herself said the day before that they say we are feeding, getting our way and throwing (apparently she does not know the story of the little prince). Generally another deer country. Themselves to blame!
  4. Ataturk
    -13
    6 September 2012 16: 07
    Again this hater of Turks and Azerbaijanis writes his pro-Armenian dreams (((((((((((MINUS ARTICLE
    1. +5
      6 September 2012 17: 01
      And what is so anti-Turkish and anti-Azerbaijani? The statements of Turkish politicians speak for themselves. And the Armenians have something to do with it, are they really to blame for this mess?
    2. 0
      6 September 2012 18: 27
      quote: Ataturk Again this hater of Turks and Azerbaijanis writes his pro-Armenian dreams (((((((((((MINUS ARTICLE

      If the hater of the heroes of Russia is on the website of Russia, why can't a Russian person write his articles? Especially about the Turks, who began to sing again to the tune of amers.
  5. albanec
    +5
    6 September 2012 16: 07
    The greatest nonsense to foment war on one’s own border. It’s so competent to initially build relations with other countries and it’s so stupid to destroy everything in one fell swoop in pursuit of green papers and promises of UWB about leadership in the region. fool
  6. kNow
    -7
    6 September 2012 16: 37
    I didn’t understand anything. Collection of quotes from Turkish politicians.

    I do not understand the addiction of topwar to Tarasov.

    There are so many smart, pragmatic people in Russia, and they only print it.
  7. +2
    6 September 2012 16: 58
    Something too fast Turkey turned out to be under the heel of pen-do-owls. And with the neighbors it somehow turns out badly. All this is not good.
  8. +2
    6 September 2012 17: 09
    It happens when you give both yours and ours ...
  9. Uncle Serozha
    +2
    6 September 2012 17: 14
    Quote: Ataturk
    Again this hater of Turks and Azerbaijanis writes his pro-Armenian dreams (((((((((((

    I did not see in this article any hatred of the Turks or Azerbaijanis. Maybe I can’t read between the lines?

    Quote: kNow
    I didn’t understand anything. Collection of quotes from Turkish politicians.

    +1 The same feeling. From the point of view of methodology, the article is written completely haphazardly - there is neither a distinct preamble with the question, nor the sequence and logic of the presentation, nor the author’s conclusions, nor their argumentation. Information vinaigrette.
    1. synchrophasatron
      -1
      6 September 2012 17: 17
      Quote: Uncle Seryozha
      The same feeling. From the point of view of methodology, the article is written completely haphazardly - there is neither a distinct preamble with the question, nor the sequence and logic of the presentation, nor the author’s conclusions, nor their argumentation. Information vinaigrette.

      You are a plus. A person has cereal in his brain.
    2. -1
      6 September 2012 18: 34
      What can you do, Ataturk, he sees the situation from his mosque, but he will not refuse logic ..
  10. tekinoral
    -8
    6 September 2012 17: 24
    one more Regnum's false article,
  11. amikan
    +1
    6 September 2012 17: 25
    The fact that Turkey maintains instability on its borders indicates only one desire to warm its hands while dividing the territories.
    Are they sure that it is possible to miss here, as well as to be in the division of their own territories
    1. +2
      6 September 2012 18: 41
      I think they just "told" Turkey .. Turkey has always been a puppet ..
    2. +1
      6 September 2012 21: 33
      Before the start of World War II, the Psheks divided Czechoslovakia, but for some reason then they divided the Psheks.
  12. 0
    6 September 2012 17: 28
    well, the Kurdish issue is a matter for the Turkish government and not just for the foreign minister; it is not entirely clear what Turkey can "threaten" Russia with - its new radars - as you know, all air defense systems are used in defense; another thing is Erdogan's punishments in relation to Assad and Syria; as well as flirting with Israel - a country directly financing the chaos and war in Syria
  13. +4
    6 September 2012 18: 29
    quote: Ataturk Again this hater of Turks and Azerbaijanis writes his pro-Armenian dreams (((((((((((MINUS ARTICLE

    If the hater of the heroes of Russia is on the website of Russia, why can't a Russian person write his articles? Especially about the Turks, who began to sing again to the tune of amers.
  14. bask
    0
    6 September 2012 18: 34
    The Turkish elite, mainly the generals, have always been against the provincial Erdogan and drawing the country into the war in Syria. There are mass arrests and resignations. The country is plunging into the Middle Ages.
  15. +1
    6 September 2012 18: 38
    But nothing happens with our government, there are no apologists, there are no dissidents, there is no one who can hold power to answer, there’s no one to put laughing
  16. 0
    6 September 2012 21: 36
    Yes, there has been a state of emergency for a decade, it costs a lot ...
  17. +2
    7 September 2012 00: 03
    Bazaar hucksters they are hucksters, they are eager to rule the world, the "new Turkish order" :)))))))) From now on, there are no "sultans" of this level in Turkey, let it be better to sell oranges in bazaars ...
  18. Husseyn
    +2
    7 September 2012 04: 41
    Yasen Pin, uh-huh, because in Russia the armies have long ago broken the backbone and all and sundry wiped their feet on it. A "civilian" minister can curse a military officer, officers are robbed by all and sundry.
    The Turks have a different situation, where the army is the source and focus of the educated and secular part of the population. The army is loved and respected in spite of everything, the service is prestigious. The army is the second largest in NATO, in terms of equipping with modern weapons systems, it lags behind, but is intensively developing its military-industrial complex, all the main types of weapons, with the development of a tank and self-propelled guns based on Korean ones, are now completely produced on its territory. Discipline in the Turkish army, as they say, "we only dreamed."

    There is an experience when, as a result of the internal political crisis, the army takes power into their hands, and after the elections transfers it to civil society in Turkey. At the same time, the army never established a military dictatorship and did not strive for this. There will be a crisis in secular power, and this will happen again, despite the fact that a number of generals have been arrested.

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