Stanislav Tarasov: Generals' scenarios come true in Turkey
The truth that in big politics often there is no smoke without fire was confirmed by the fact that the other day Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmed Davutoglu arranged a three-hour meeting with journalists, at which he voiced his main but significant thesis: "I don’t have a personal policy I am implementing the policy of the Turkish government. " This is an open hint that forces have appeared in the ruling party of Turkey that are trying to write off all the failures in the foreign policy of the country only to the Foreign Minister, to make him a scapegoat.
The fact that the leadership of Turkey is going on undercover tough political struggle, many experts guessed. The tip of the iceberg can be considered the statement made at the end of July by the adviser to the President of Turkey Ahmet Sevyar on the possibility of Abdullah Gul to run for another presidential term. True, the deputy chairman of the ruling party, Hussein Celik, tried to correct this attack by the president. In an interview with the Milliyet newspaper, he assured that "between Gul and Erdogan there are deep friendship and fraternal relations that will not be sacrificed because of the struggle for the position", that "the friendship of these people passed many trials, and if Erdogan is a presidential candidate, Gul will not stand as a candidate. " However, the President’s Office has made it publicly clear that in the relationship between the head of state and the Prime Minister, not everything looks straightforward.
There are other signs of opposition to Gul-Erdogan. Being in prison on charges of preparing a coup d'état (Operation Balyoz (Sledgehammer)) Rear Admiral Fatih Ilgar posted on Twitter a sound recording stating that "there is a struggle between Gul and Erdogan, as a result of which one of them will leave the political field and that the Turkish armed forces prepared for this development. This gap reaches its peak. "
What is the camp where Foreign Minister Davutoglu found himself? Until recently, the triumvirate Erdogan-Gul-Davutoglu was called "one of the most important factors in the latest Middle Eastern history." Because he implemented the Turkish foreign policy concept - "zero problems with neighbors." Initially, this doctrine was perceived as a desire of Turkey to create favorable external conditions for the implementation of modernization policies, the rejection of isolationist policies while maintaining stability in the region. At the same time, Ankara was aware of the fact that it needs to have constructive, trusting relations with the existing geopolitical and regional centers of power. Using the vast experience of maneuvering and diplomatic skill accumulated over the centuries, Turkey could talk about great successes in its foreign policy. It was a stormy political, and then an economic affair with Russia, balanced relations were built with Iran and Syria, and relations with China were improved. These factors Turkish diplomacy rightly introduced into the asset the doctrine of "strategic depth", which brought it to the level of a leading regional power. This is exactly the position that Davutoогlu’s recorded in his already mentioned three-hour interview. “In the first years of my tenure as minister, our country had embassies only in 93 countries of the world,” he said. “Now this number is 131. Secondly, the abolition of entry visas to Russia seemed something impracticable, but today it is a reality. We were also able to ensure our country's involvement in all international structures. " By the way, it is no coincidence that in the 2010 year, according to Time magazine, Davutoglu together with Turkish Deputy Prime Minister Ali Babacan entered the list of the hundred most influential personalities of the world. As the newspaper Zaman wrote, "while Europe is struggling with the financial crisis, and the Arab world is drawn into political conflicts, Turkey has become a regional example of economic growth and democratization, both in domestic and in foreign policy." The role of the architect of Turkey's new foreign policy was played by 53-year-old Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmed Davutoglu, who earned international prestige for his "tirelessness and work ethic."
What happened next? According to the former director general of the Ministry of Industry and Trade of Turkey, author of the book "Flooded by the West", political scientist Bulent Esinoglu, "somewhere in the beginning of 2011, the foreign policy of the ruling party began to hide behind the US State Department, which was directly reflected in many statements by the Minister of Foreign Affairs Turkey's Ahmed Davutoglu. " That is, Davutoglu either joined Erdogan completely, or led his game, balancing between the two "centers", which affected, in particular, his determination to sign the well-known Zurich protocols on settling relations with Armenia. But then, according to Esinoglu, “Erdogan began to identify the situation in the region only with the American project Big Middle East (BWI), and forced his foreign minister to look at all the problems of the region“ through this geopolitical window. ”As a result, The phenomenon of the Arab Spring began, Turkey abruptly changed vectors in its own Middle Eastern policy. Speaking to parliamentarians, Foreign Minister Davutoglu already stated: "A new Middle East is being born, where Turkey is the hostess, it is in Avanga It is able to determine the future of the Middle East as the leader of a new regional order. ”At the same time, he proposed a new term for Turkish foreign policy -“ reasonable power ”, which quickly led not only to confrontation with almost all neighbors, but also deprived Turkish diplomacy intellectual component, the loss of the ability to competently adapt to the emerging complex political situation in the region. It became obvious that Turkey’s power was overvalued, its underestimation of the possibilities for demonstrating its influence in gion by other centers of power, in particular from Russia, China and Iran. It is this factor that increasingly began to push Turkey into the embrace of the West, which, right before our eyes, turned it into a toolkit for the implementation of the “Greater Middle East” project, on the other hand, to introduce the country into a zone of potential regional destabilization. For example, Turkey initially supported Gaddafi, urging Western countries not to interfere in the events taking place in Libya. But then Ankara "unexpectedly" changed its attitude towards Libya. Similarly, Ankara initially supported its ally, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, then "changed its mind."
There was a situation in which the forces that came to power in the countries of the victorious "Arab Spring" began to perceive Turkey negatively. Exactly the same dynamics is observed in Turkey’s relations with neighboring Iran. The Turks signed an agreement with the United States on the deployment on their territory of early warning radars belonging to the European missile defense system, which brought it to the level of confrontation with Iran and in fact with Russia. As a result, as the Turkish newspaper Radikal wrote, "Turkey under US pressure began to return to the cold war's foreign policy."
But the main geopolitical phenomenon that took place is still different. Now if the Kurds of Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran unite, then Ankara will begin a real geopolitical nightmare in the form of creating an independent Kurdistan and the inevitable loss of part of its territory. “We will not allow the formation of a terrorist structure near our border,” said Ahmed Davutoglu, speaking on Turkish television. “We reserve this right ... whether it is Al Qaeda or the Kurdish Workers Party. We consider this a national affair security and take all necessary measures. " That is, if earlier terrorists in Turkey meant only Kurdish militants, now it has become a refuge for al-Qaeda. A similar statement was recently made by Prime Minister Erdogan. We only note that the destabilization of the situation in Turkey and around it is included in the scenarios developed by the American project “Greater Middle East” and is one of the variants of operation “Baloz” voiced by the Turkish media, when the “emergency” takes effect factor, and power in the country gradually flows into the hands of generals. So it was precisely the problems of foreign policy that began to ruin the internal balance of political power in the country.
But so far, it seems, the resignation of only Foreign Minister Davutoglu is being prepared. As for the opposition, which publicly initiates this process, it is unlikely that it will offer a real alternative to foreign policy, and appeals to return to the status quo policy will mean either reanimation of the ideas of Kemal Ataturk or the new course already implemented by the generals.
Information