Military Review

Defense Top Priority: An American View of the Russian Army

80

Russians will not attack first



In the West, a fairly stable opinion has been formed regarding the methods of warfare by the Russian army. Ever since the invasion of Napoleon, the Russians have been suppressing the enemy with massive attacks and numerical superiority. A similar situation with the wars of the XX century. Hitler, for example, was driven out not by "knowledge, skills and abilities", but impudently and at the cost of unprecedented losses. Typical stereotypical assessment of the "enlightened" collective West. It is based on the differences between liberal European values ​​and Eastern traditionalism.

The guards of world democracy believe that the Russian-style war scenario does not imply the value of a soldier's life. The priority is always the solution of the combat mission, despite the excessive losses in manpower. For the sake of fairness, it should be said that such precedents still happened in the newest stories For Russia, it is enough to recall the obvious military leadership miscalculations in the military campaigns in the North Caucasus. But talking about "cannon fodder" as the main offensive weapons Russian army, wrong and criminally.


But in recent years, the United States, which has the most powerful army in the world, has moved away from such assessments. According to the authors from the strategic research center RAND, Russia has not had an advantage in manpower over an enemy equal in military potential for several decades. In a hypothetical war with the NATO countries, Moscow should not count on a protracted nature. The hostilities will inevitably turn into a new "all-out war" that Russia will not endure.

With a slight amendment - in the case of using exclusively non-nuclear weapons. The nuclear triad invariably guarantees at least an unpredictable outcome of the military confrontation between Russia and the United States and NATO.

Russia also has great difficulties with its geographic location. Despite the world's largest territory, the country also has the world's largest state border. This means the need to maintain a large army, as well as high risks of invasion.

For comparison: the United States has a border five times smaller in length, and even surrounded by de facto satellites, if not vassals. That is why the Pentagon so easily and naturally made the entire globe a zone of its responsibility - there is no need to expect a blow "in the gut" from Canada and Mexico.

At the same time, the potential inherent in the Russian territory makes it possible not to worry about the country's resource provision at all. For this, there is no need to declare entire regions of the planet as a zone of its influence, as the United States does. In fact, Moscow's main problem is finding adequate and reliable consumers of natural resources and their derivatives. And the natural resources of Russia, despite the global "green redistribution", will be tidbits for potential opponents for a long time to come.

In this regard, the top of the pragmatic approach is the defense doctrine of the use of the domestic armed forces. We are not going to fight on the enemy's territory, as it was intended, in particular, in the 30s, but we will not allow the adversary to enter the country either. In the RAND office, until a certain point, this thesis was not entirely obvious. Now the agency's analysts are talking about the defense postulates of Moscow's military policy.

Protecting the country first of all


It is very difficult for American military strategists to understand what it means to conduct a full-fledged war on its own territory. Simply because there has never been a real war in the United States, and they fought mostly remotely. The tragedy of Russia, which happened almost 80 years ago, has developed a strong immunity to invasion from outside. Even if the enemy is crushed, destroyed territories remain in the country, which must be restored after victorious salutes.

That is why the main priority of the Russian armed forces remains one thing - to prevent the aggressor from entering the country. They protect, first of all, large industrial centers and million-plus cities. Of no small importance are the border states, which play the role of buffers. Of course, this is a very pragmatic calculation, bordering on cynicism, but this is the only way to gain time for mobilization in case of war.

And move the distance of the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons away from Moscow. Here, by the way, the geographic position is again not in favor of Russia. The capital is located much closer to the west than to the center of the state, which greatly increases its vulnerability to NATO countries. Simply put, Moscow is geographically closer to enemies than to allies, albeit temporary.

A distinctive feature of Russia's military strategy is its extreme toughness with regard to the violation of the state border. Here RAND's findings cause confusion - which sovereign country is ready to "softly" respond to provocations at the border?

Unless, of course, this is a state from the European Union with nominal geographic contours. The United States believes that Moscow will respond very harshly, including the use of nuclear weapons. By the way, the nuclear triad will be actively used by Russia in the event of a conflict affecting the territorial integrity of the country. In a so-called controlled escalation, the Kremlin will unequivocally demonstrate its readiness to use nuclear weapons in response to an attack by conventional means.

That is, no smoldering conflict in the border region of the country with the participation of foreign "guests" is, in principle, possible. And if it is possible, then with the inevitable escalation to the third world war. This is a very important postulate that Western strategists must take into account.

An important place in the report is given to the Kaliningrad region, which is rightly considered an integral part of Russia. In the event of an attempt to seize the enclave, this will be viewed as a direct threat to Russian sovereignty. And this again leads directly to nuclear war. In addition to RAND's theses, it is worth adding that a similar focus with Crimea will also lead to unpredictable consequences.

RAND analysts see Russia's asymmetric warfare as one of the key in the future. This is largely due to the imbalance of forces in the Russia-NATO tandem.

Once again, Russia will not be able to resist the military machine of the North Atlantic Alliance for a long time without nuclear weapons. Therefore, you will have to approach the problem flexibly. War in the information field, on the cyber front and the strategy of indirect actions will be the answer to the numerical and technological advantage of the enemy. Actually, now we are witnessing one of the stages of such a war taking place in the cyber sphere.

Russian handwriting


Defending the sovereignty of a country like Russia requires a highly skilled army. Any army must fight from time to time, not limited to solely exercises. Syria has become such a "training base" for modern Russia. No one really hides this side of the military operation - the military leaders openly declare that dozens, if not hundreds, of weapons were tested in the Middle East conflict.

It has been known from open sources for several years about the constant rotation of command personnel to gain combat experience. And this is a very justifiable practice of waging limited war far from home. An example is the Chinese army. Beijing has not been conducting hostilities for several decades, which does not in the best way affect the combat capability of the army. American analysts have repeatedly reassured the public by talking about the modest successes of the People's Liberation Army of China. In particular, the notorious seizure of Taiwan, if it happens, will be in a couple of decades.


Source: Russian Ministry of Defense

RAND bit by bit collected information on the use of Russian troops and made the following conclusions.

On the line of contact, Russian generals will put artillery and missile weapons at the forefront. Reconnaissance and mobile forces will be busy looking for the enemy and blocking it with artillery fire. The ground forces will try to refrain from direct clashes. The Russian army uses precision weapons to destroy the enemy's operational and strategic targets.

It is surprising that RAND analysts have come to such a banal conclusion. What else is high-precision weapons needed for, if not for the destruction of important centers of control of enemy forces?

Do not use Iskander for areal targets.

The Russian concept of defense, as seen in the US, implies a “multi-domain” response to external aggression. Everyone will be put into action to inflict unacceptable damage - ground forces, aerospace forces, special forces, electronic warfare, air defense, paramilitary militia and even civilians. The latter will play the role of informants, observers, and will also take part in hostilities, committing sabotage and provocations.

Analytics like these make potential adversaries ponder.

First, the need to develop an adequate response to the Russian concept of using the army.

Secondly, about the expediency of the conflict with Moscow itself. Now Russia reserves the right to respond with a nuclear strike to actions without the use of weapons of mass destruction, but threatening the country's sovereignty.

And, if Moscow is not focused on an offensive war, then wouldn't a network be better at the negotiating table?
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  1. Vladimir Vladimirovich Vorontsov
    Vladimir Vladimirovich Vorontsov 21 July 2021 05: 02
    +24
    ***
    Do Russians want war? ..
    ---

    Do Russian wars want to happen?
    Ask you for silence
    over the expanse of arable land and fields
    and birches and poplars.
    You will ask those soldiers,
    that under the birches lie
    and let their sons tell you
    Do the Russians want war.
    ---

    Not only for your country
    the soldiers died in that war
    and so that people of the whole earth
    could easily dream.
    Under the rustle of leaves and posters
    You sleep, New York, you sleep, Paris.
    May your dreams answer you
    Do the Russians want war.
    ---

    Yes, we know how to fight,
    but do not want to again
    soldiers fell in battle
    to his sad land.
    You will ask your mother,
    ask my wife
    and then you must understand
    Do the Russians want wars ...
    ---
    Evgeny Evtushenko 1961
    ***
    1. knn54
      knn54 21 July 2021 09: 43
      +23
      -In a hypothetical war with the NATO countries, Moscow should not count on a protracted nature.
      Is the tolerant, amorphous West capable of a PROLONGED war.?
      1. Sergey Zhikharev
        Sergey Zhikharev 21 July 2021 13: 47
        +5
        If we talk about the economy, then yes it is.
        And they scare that the main contingent will be various mercenaries and hunters for passports (I fought with Russia, here's a US passport for you).
        And finally, few people rely on a long-term / protracted conflict.
        1. Vladimir Mashkov
          Vladimir Mashkov 21 July 2021 14: 19
          +6
          RAND analysts are absolutely right: Russia's military doctrine is defensive. Which does not exclude a decisive answer to any the aggressor of the world! Therefore, naturally, it is better to negotiate! smile
          1. URAL72
            URAL72 21 July 2021 16: 29
            +5
            That is, no smoldering conflict in the border region of the country with the participation of foreign "guests" is, in principle, possible. And if it is possible, then with the inevitable escalation to the third world war.

            Why is it not possible? If Banderland suddenly tramples on Voronezh with a fool, then we will do without nuclear weapons.
            1. Vladimir Mashkov
              Vladimir Mashkov 21 July 2021 16: 42
              +2
              Quote: URAL72
              If Banderland suddenly tramples on Voronezh with a fool,

              They themselves never DO NOT trample: they are and-di-o-you, but not to that extent. They will trample on Russia (and LDNR) only in one case: if the Americans force them. And they will only force them if the Americans VERY it is necessary. One of the immediate reasons is the completion of SP-2, after the commissioning of which the US influence on Europe will significantly decrease and it will become more difficult to sell its LNG.
              1. Essex62
                Essex62 21 July 2021 17: 11
                +3
                Do you seriously think that decisions are made by those who make money in mattress and they need to influence something there? What kind of LNG? Not that level. Crazy is not a state, in the normal sense, it is the platform of the cut paper printing press. And its masters, the true masters of the modern World, after they have overwhelmed the USSR, will never risk their skin. Why should they be hit with retribution? They will wait until our current Kremlin boys leave, for natural reasons, and the "macaroshkas" brought up by them and already propping up the fighters, will hand over everything themselves. No risk.
              2. ada
                ada 21 July 2021 22: 11
                0
                I disagree. After the completion of the SP-2 (and during construction), the influence of the United States (if it is simplified to speak of the United States as the influential forces of the financial and economic system) on Europe will only improve, I would say - and not only on Europe, but also on us. The level of manageability of the "euro" will increase. And let your LNG lie. Even if they had a breakthrough in energy based on new physical principles, the gas supply would not be superfluous. I am sure that they are involved in any major energy project, and from both sides - from our side in the "share" and with Eropa in the "share" and one hand on the pulse, and the other on a thin neck.
                1. Essex62
                  Essex62 22 July 2021 09: 26
                  -1
                  This is if the RF is considered the second or third center of power on the planet. But this is not the case. Mouse fuss
                  Bourgeois showdown.
                  The printing press, world money, the bending tool is not obedient, reliable. By destroying the USSR, they not only deprived us of ideology, but also eliminated sovereignty by hooking it up on the dollar.
                  Now the whole ball is ruled by unsupported candy wrappers. Our fighters can puff out their cheeks as much as they want, they are not the main ones. The main ones are the agents of the Freemasons, the conductors of their power, such as Chubais and Nabiulina.
        2. The comment was deleted.
      2. VO3A
        VO3A 21 July 2021 13: 57
        -12%
        But to speak of "cannon fodder" as the main offensive weapon of the Russian army is wrong and criminal.

        A very interesting conclusion of the author ... And what does the General Staff, the leadership of the army, the government, the president do for this? They do almost nothing! All reconnaissance information about the enemy in real time in the Russian army comes from people ... Combat Information Systems that ensure the detection and destruction of the enemy in real time in a combined arms battle at the tactical level in the Russian Army are simply absent completely ... There are NO such systems from the word " AT ALL" !!! They have been replaced by command and control systems for their control and transmission of orders, the so-called ACCU !!! They are useless in battle and are needed only for generals and show ...
        Yes, the Russian Army will stack its soldiers in stacks for a grain of information about the enemy ...Everything is still ... And it's true !!!
        1. lazas
          lazas 21 July 2021 16: 26
          -7
          To the very point !!!!
        2. Gado
          Gado 21 July 2021 17: 54
          +4
          Do you really think that the General Staff about "Combat Information Systems" should bring you everything on a silver platter? Or is it a military secret?
          And about "The Russian Army will stack its soldiers in stacks for a grain of information about the enemy", somehow I did not even think. Didn't Syria, and not only Syria, teach the military anything?
          Pray that you never know what will happen if tomorrow is a war. I think that it will not seem enough to anyone - both Russia, and Europe, and America and other Australia.
      3. Ros 56
        Ros 56 21 July 2021 16: 16
        +5
        Almost the same thought was in my head almost all the time while I was reading the article. And with whom to fight there? After all, in fact, any war with NATO will turn into a war with the striped ones. The material part, in the sense of money, they have in abundance, but with combat stability, I think not very much.
        We need more Buratin and Tosochek, and add range to them.
      4. the last nail
        the last nail 22 July 2021 06: 57
        -2
        Well one way or another, but still capable. But for this they need "Hitler". And "Hitler" needs some time to "unite" the West and put it on a war footing.
        It is possible to guess where the next "unifier" will come from. Napoleon appeared when all of Europe spoke French. "German fashion" gave birth to Hitler. Now the fashion for everything English rules.
  2. Cowbra
    Cowbra 21 July 2021 05: 10
    +6
    RAND is probably the only office in the United States that does not spank manuals for hamsters ... And the summary of RAND's next calculation is that the described scenarios are dead-end for NATO. One thing is embarrassing - they did not hint about the grouping in Transnistria
    1. Jager
      Jager 21 July 2021 08: 49
      +12
      The military value of the grouping in Transnistria is minimal, it is a purely political presence.
      1. Cowbra
        Cowbra 21 July 2021 08: 57
        0
        So the United States also needs a "small victorious war" - for example, to unite the nation after the election of a dementous person!
      2. Romario_Argo
        Romario_Argo 21 July 2021 12: 25
        -3
        The military value of the grouping in Transnistria is minimal

        and if the grouping is strengthened by exoskeletons, the armor of super-string pads for the limbs
        and on top of the Warrior-KM assault suits only not on titanium but on boron carbide
        + Sagittarius, night vision devices, mini UAVs, etc.
        so there, even before the heap, our PMCs and MTRs are present
        1. Intruder
          Intruder 21 July 2021 14: 02
          -6
          and if the grouping is strengthened by exoskeletons, the armor of super-string pads for the limbs
          and on top of the Warrior-KM assault suits only not on titanium but on boron carbide
          + Sagittarius, night vision devices, mini UAVs, etc.
          It is possible, but who will pay for all this abundance, a beggar Russian, or will they create new excise duties and taxes, again for the population of Russia !? lol
          1. Romario_Argo
            Romario_Argo 21 July 2021 14: 52
            +6
            enlighten you? full of money.
            we are building the Krasnogorsk children's hospital for 9 billion
            by the way, Moscow makes short-term deposits of 1-3 trillion rubles. at 10% per month
            - You didn't know that (?)
            NWF. There are secret budget items.
            You don't think that the Ministry of Agriculture is buying "mowers" for 10 million at a retail price of 500 thousand rubles.
            1. Intruder
              Intruder 21 July 2021 15: 27
              -5
              we are building the Krasnogorsk children's hospital for 9 billion
              by the way, Moscow makes short-term deposits of 1-3 trillion rubles. at 10% per month
              - You didn't know that (?)
              NWF. There are secret budget items.
              You don't think that the Ministry of Agriculture is buying "mowers" for 10 million at a retail price of 500 thousand rubles.
              Should I know this, on the other side of the Pacific Puddle !? wink
              Well, they build and buy, and even for such grandmothers, or better without mowers and hospitals, but with money !? good
            2. boni592807
              boni592807 26 July 2021 17: 55
              0
              Romario_Argo (Novel), 21 July 2021 14:52, - "... to enlighten you? there is a lot of money ..."

              Colleague, who can argue that THEM is not enough ?! hi If you add up what and where, and where, who has ... and SKOKO! From the gold of the Republic of Ingushetia, the gold of the KP, and just the gold of socially concerned citizens of the Republic of Ingushetia, the USSR, the Russian Federation .. (I don’t give links because it was more than once before. The seeker, let him find it). Since Soviet times, documents and data on the forgotten debts of England, Japan, America and other partners of the Rim are up to 1 trillion green. Glazyev - over the years of the "breakthrough" into democracy, the partners spent - 1 trillion. green. Etc. (about little things like -p-ka Zakharov and gold toilets up to the municipal level ... not even worth mentioning, like seeds). In the Russian Federation, it should already be, not just like socialism, but with elements of communism. About the military-industrial complex and the RF Ministry of Defense ...
              But, you are confusing Cannon rollback and citizens of the Russian Federation (entirely middle class and other pence from the military), periodically drying up the state defense order ... repeat
              No, of course, there is something between the lines... I don’t know about Yugoslavia, Serbia (Milosevic), but, BUT, like Libya (Gaddafi), then the "partners" said, without unnecessary polities .. to the point (H. Clinton). bully
              What's next...? see the history of RI (history teaches that NOBODY learns ...) .. it will turn out to be "straightened out" at the current turn ... Here are the options to complete NOT success with RI from 1914-1917, from the USSR 1941, it has become more since 1991, and there are fewer points of support ... (eg economy, etc., Stolypin - about manure and people ..). Iron decides a lot, if there is someone who controls it. This is for any super-duper (USA and others - a strategy of global superiority, including technological). You can always find, like a box of bolts in the orbit of SDI systems, a simple solution, if THERE IS ANYONE ...
              R.S. Someone will not agree, they will probably be right. Let's go, das zayne (sorry, for my Ryazan). Personal opinion (there are pessimists, there are optimists, but it is safer to remain realistic). "Hope for the best, prepare for the worst and the BEST will be a pleasant surprise." hi
        2. VO3A
          VO3A 21 July 2021 14: 19
          -3
          If only if only! .. You can add about Armenia, Tajikistan, ... This does not mean that they are not needed there ... It means that they do not know how, they were not taught, they were not supplied, they were not developed modern weapons, and most importantly, did not develop means of reconnaissance, target designation and destruction of the enemy in real time ... Who is to blame? General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces and personally Gerasimov! The Russian Army does not know how to wage a modern war, it does not have tactical and operational-tactical means for such bases for this and will not be in the near future ... Not even a concept ... But there was a program of the President of Russia to create and equip such systems before 2020 ... and how was it done? NO! Is Gerasimov the Hero of Russia? Well done !!!
          No, they will show you exercises, window dressing, pout their cheeks ... But in the real army in Transnistria, in Tajikistan, in Armenia ... there is nothing ... cannot, only words and successes in words and plans are a cloud ...
          Don't like the TRUTH? Minus further!
          1. Dart
            Dart 21 July 2021 16: 30
            +2
            Congratulations, you have taken the championship "all-propalschik VO" ...
            At least justify your ... mmm .. "postulates", but then only a protracted howl and many signs ..
            1. VO3A
              VO3A 21 July 2021 16: 43
              -6
              I understand, we moved away from the plow and ... I wonder? Read about network-centric systems in WIKI, Read about the fate of the ESU TZ "Constellation-M" and how and who took it ... Read about the concept of network-centric systems in the Russian Armed Forces ... more precisely, about their uselessness and replacing them with ACCS .. Or ... back to the plow ...
        3. Jager
          Jager 23 July 2021 14: 27
          0
          Pour some of your miracle herb for me too)
    2. toha124
      toha124 21 July 2021 11: 12
      +3
      So there are essentially only two motorized rifle battalions and a command battalion (this is the Russian task force if you take it). The strength is not great. Although, the presence of a battalion in the group of command, which is clearly redundant for the two ISB, suggests the idea of ​​subordination to the Russian commander of all the armed forces of the Republic of Poland in a special period. Otherwise, why not sequester this battalion?
      1. Cowbra
        Cowbra 21 July 2021 11: 37
        0
        Not the point. A defeat or, for example, a complete blockade of a grouping - Russian troops ... With absolute hopelessness - either to break through a corridor to them, obvious aggression, or to surrender them, the cat abandoned the kittens, then you know ... Oh, how the ratings of the initiator will rise. Who cares, how much, where, what is the exhaust for the USA OBJECTIVELY. There is something to inflate - there is a clear defeat of the armed forces of the Russian Federation - well, NATO is on a horse, because it looks like that, and it will, if it CAN do it.
        I have already said that this is a vulnerable point, one hope that ours have been aware of this for a long time, and that they are not in the General Staff, I think, is already a little clear, the latter ended when "one regiment in a month" the mountains. I believe they have already prepared an answer. Hopefully
        1. abrakadabre
          abrakadabre 21 July 2021 13: 46
          +5
          The defeat or, for example, a complete blockade of the grouping - Russian troops ... With absolute hopelessness - either to break through a corridor to them, obvious aggression, or to surrender them, the cat abandoned the kittens, then you know ...
          An attempt to defeat or a complete blockade of the grouping will just mean aggression in our direction. That will completely untie the hands of our MO. Exactly the same as it was in Georgia in 2008.
          1. Cowbra
            Cowbra 21 July 2021 14: 21
            -1
            Quote: abrakadabre
            or a complete blockade of the grouping will just mean aggression in our direction.

            The blockade of WHAT? Unrecognized Transnistrian Republic? Legally - blockade of Moldova. Oh, are there Russian troops? And we do not touch them. Blockade - Moldova
      2. Romario_Argo
        Romario_Argo 21 July 2021 14: 58
        0
        There are essentially at least 2000 soldiers of our PMCs and MTRs
        in WW2 in 1941 only 1 battalion of the NKVD (300 people) covered the retreat of 3 armies from Kiev
  3. Vladimir_2U
    Vladimir_2U 21 July 2021 05: 20
    +4
    RAND analysts are not NI "analysts" for you, quotes do not apply to them, and you should at least listen. And as a maximum to do the opposite! (joke)
  4. Al_lexx
    Al_lexx 21 July 2021 06: 25
    +6
    All this can be said much shorter.
    Any external aggression that jeopardizes the integrity of the Russian state immediately (for Russia) turns into a Patriotic War, when the whole people starts to fight.
    It has always been that way. Long before there was such a state as the USA.
    1. Intruder
      Intruder 21 July 2021 14: 08
      -1
      Any external aggression that jeopardizes the integrity of the Russian state immediately (for Russia) turns into a Patriotic War, when the whole people starts to fight.
      Well, he will fight a lot, consisting of half of managers and lawyers with sellers, a month or two in the militia and partisan detachments, even when mobilized in wartime ... and then, only those who remember the Union and served in the SA, just under / of retirement age and only! And modern youth, with iPhones and mice in their hands, will also fight ... like in PUBG, but under the howl of the attacking Harop or in the silence of the greenery of the Central Russian plain !? wink
  5. parusnik
    parusnik 21 July 2021 06: 37
    -1
    After reading the article, I came to the following conclusion. Do they need the resources of Russia to manufacture products, so that these products can be sold all over the world, including in Russia? Those. hidden subtext from the author: Russia, cannot independently dispose of its own resources, only trade them?
    1. Nyrobsky
      Nyrobsky 21 July 2021 12: 03
      +7
      Quote: parusnik
      After reading the article, I came to the following conclusion. Do they need the resources of Russia to manufacture products, so that these products can be sold all over the world, including in Russia? Those. hidden subtext from the author: Russia, cannot independently dispose of its own resources, only trade them?

      In principle, this thought has been tormenting their minds for more than a decade. I don’t remember who owns the phrase (M. Thatcher or M. Albright) - "What kind of world justice can we talk about when such a rich territory like Siberia belongs to Russia alone?", But it reflects the true intentions of the West in the long term to establish its control , in other words - "justice", in the Russian territories rich in natural resources.
      1. Terran ghost
        Terran ghost 21 July 2021 15: 54
        -8
        In principle, this thought has been tormenting their minds for more than a decade. I don’t remember who the phrase belongs to.

        The answer is neither one nor the other.
        The source of this phrase - delusional tales about some supposedly "read in the brain in extrasensory ways of intentions." After that, all such delusional inferences can be immediately sent to the shelf "stories of mentally ill people." There they belong.
        Now the second, if, as you are trying to assert, the US government is so obsessed with the idea of ​​conquering territories rich in natural resources, then why has it not yet conquered Canada, which lies nearby, rich in natural resources? After all, it is much easier and cheaper to take these natural resources out of it than to drag them across the ocean. But no, the only (first and last) attempt to conquer Canada by the United States of America was made ... in 1812.
  6. Disant
    Disant 21 July 2021 07: 17
    0
    An important place in the report is given to the Kaliningrad region, which is rightly considered an integral part of Russia. In case of attempted capture enclave

    the author, the word enclave hurts the ear very much, as if the Chinese Chinatown or the black quarter, where "I was walking, I saw beautiful houses .." (c)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lqXmsbCb1TE
    .
    Kaliningrad region is not an enclave
    .
    That is, no smoldering conflict in the border region of the country with the participation of foreign "guests" is, in principle, possible. And if it is possible, then with the inevitable escalation to the third world war.

    the east of Uraina shows what is possible.
    shells flew towards us, refugees fled
  7. Arian
    Arian 21 July 2021 07: 19
    +9
    The strange thesis: "The Russian army cannot resist NATO in a war by conventional conventional means" - it is repeatedly mentioned in the Western press, and in some publications in our country - causes frank bewilderment. The "great" armies of the European states total several hundred tanks, self-propelled guns and aircraft in all. Whether they pose a threat to us - in my opinion, no. Only the US and Turkish armies can really threaten us (on a limited scale and in a limited theater of operations). They write about the mobilization potential - they think that the pampered hedonists will go in droves to the military registration and enlistment offices to go to war with Russia? Again, unlikely in my opinion
  8. Hagen
    Hagen 21 July 2021 07: 36
    +1
    And, if Moscow is not focused on an offensive war, then wouldn't a network be better at the negotiating table?

    The contradictions between the global deep state and Russia are not removable and cannot be resolved in negotiations. And therefore, the aggravation in the relationship will grow. They will strengthen especially strongly in the information field, in repelling their attempts to penetrate into the internal space of Russia through democratic institutions, in the opposition on the part of the United States to our economic cooperation with other countries.
  9. Disant
    Disant 21 July 2021 08: 01
    0
    to what progress has reached - the cartridges are blackened in the photo.
    .
    The machine gunner's grip is good - sniper
    1. Lynx2000
      Lynx2000 21 July 2021 08: 40
      +4
      Quote: Disant
      to what progress has reached - the cartridges are blackened in the photo.
      The machine gunner's grip is good - sniper

      I enlarged the picture, did not see that the sleeves were matte black, I did not consider special markings on the shell of the bullet. The usual olive color, perhaps such lighting and shadow. I heard about the black markings on the bullet which means an enhanced charge.

      The machine gunner's grip is normal, according to the instructions, so our grandfathers and fathers from the "Tar" beat enemies ...

      1. Disant
        Disant 21 July 2021 11: 34
        0
        olive is like olives in a can.
        the machine gunner in the photo in the article - cartridges - black, dark green and smoked

        and here a friend generally holds with his teeth
        1. Lynx2000
          Lynx2000 21 July 2021 12: 40
          +2
          Quote: Disant
          olive is like olives in a can.
          the machine gunner in the photo in the article - cartridges - black, dark green and smoked [center]
          and here a friend generally holds with his teeth

          Dark green, isn't it olive? In the article, I do not see the black cartridges in the photo with the machine gunner.
          I wrote for the black markings on the bullet, I have not seen such in the army, but I heard. I don’t know about Russian-made black cartridges, but I heard about the presentation at Army-2017 (or 2019).
          wink This comrade is not a comrade for us at all, although with our PKM.

          Although he served in the army, but for me there are variations in understanding the color "green": light green, green, dark green. yes My wife knows all the shades and names, including the colors of the Russian car industry, like: moray eel, summer garden, dark blue midnight or eggplant ... laughing
  10. looker-on
    looker-on 21 July 2021 10: 15
    +6
    Quote: Arian
    They write about the mobilization potential - they think that the pampered hedonists will go in droves to the military registration and enlistment offices to go to war with Russia? Again, unlikely in my opinion

    Well, among 18-25 year olds in our country there is no noticeable excitement. Crowds to the military registration and enlistment office to defend their homeland, they will not run with their latte. In war, you can scratch your iPhone, or just die. For what? For Putin? A scenario in the form: "Abrams are rolling to Moscow along the M1 highway" is also unlikely. The world has changed - few are ready to die for ideals. Yes, and the ideals were worn out and not the same.
    1. Arian
      Arian 21 July 2021 10: 24
      +5
      That's right, we can see this tendency too, though on a smaller scale (for now), so this reasoning, in essence, is empty in nature, now the confrontation is primarily in the economy and the information sphere
  11. wow
    wow 21 July 2021 10: 17
    -3
    Well, about the ability of the United States to wage a "protracted" war, oh-oh-very much I doubt it. That war, 41-45. they could not bear from the word at all.
  12. looker-on
    looker-on 21 July 2021 10: 26
    +4
    Quote: yo-mine
    That war, 41-45. they would not bear from the word at all

    As a result of the war, the Americans only became the first in the world. Quite a result with a + sign
  13. Per se.
    Per se. 21 July 2021 10: 55
    +2
    Russia also has great difficulties with its geographic location. Despite the world's largest territory, the country also has the world's largest state border. This means the need to maintain a large army, as well as high risks of invasion.
    If the article states that "the main priority of the Russian armed forces remains one thing - to prevent the aggressor from entering the country," how to explain that the number of our ground forces is inferior to that of the National Guard, for which repelling external aggression is not its primary task? So, the number of Rosgvardia in 2021 was 340 thousand people, which is 80 thousand more than the ground forces at the disposal of the Ministry of Defense. What is the priority here, who and what is more dangerous for us?

    Second, if we do not have an advantage in manpower and the mobilization potential of the country is important, how to understand the attitude towards urgent service, which has become synonymous with inferiority? The US cadre army is noted, a huge budget, but we do not print dollars, and it is for us that universal conscription is important, which reduces material costs and increases the training of the reserve for the army. Little year, make three years urgent. Do not recruit so many healthy conscripts, take those who can and want, let the rest work off in the army fund for those who serve for them, this is an additional item of the military budget.

    There is a single constitutional duty, and everyone must comply with it. If you want and you can, you serve urgent, you have bonuses and benefits. If you don't want to, you can't - work it out, with the obligatory course of a young fighter and taking the oath as a citizen of your country. How else in a war, some at the front, others in the rear for the front. This should be the basis of conscription, for all young people, for girls and "white riders" with "pilgrims" inclusive. Exceptions can be foreseen, where without them.

    It is quite possible to prepare good fighters from conscripts in three years, who in many respects will not yield to contract soldiers. In terms of increased combat readiness, it is already possible to give priority to over-conscripts serving under contract. At the same time, first of all, send new equipment to their armed forces, in the best configuration, and not for export, which should be secondary and not to the detriment of national interests.

    If we are talking about the European theater of operations, the defense of Russian territory, we must also understand that the "Syrian experience", like the Chechen, Afghan, is an experience against militants, and not against a full-fledged army, especially an alliance that has all types of armed forces. Also, all three of these wars are a specific geographic environment, mostly dry. To draw global conclusions from this and order the appropriate equipment for the entire army for this would be a mistake, if not a crime.

    The last, all of the above is more suitable for the people's army and a socially oriented state. If this is not so, then doubts already arise, but will the oligarchs use nuclear weapons against the aggressor, if they are all in the West? It is one thing to puff out the ratings and drank some dough from the military budget; it is another thing to bomb your billion-dollar accounts in other people's banks and children with their wives for permanent residence with "partners". Also, who is more dangerous for those in power, an external aggressor or an internal enemy? Realizing this, it is necessary to build your army.
    1. Sergeantpro
      Sergeantpro 27 July 2021 19: 56
      0
      La, is that where you come from? The manuals have already been changed, and you are still sparring the old way. Maybe it's enough to ride on your own rake? Be more creative, more inventive.
  14. 1536
    1536 21 July 2021 11: 35
    +2
    I don't know how history is studied in American universities, but if desired, even an amateur can compare, for example, the size of the Russian army and the size of the French army at the beginning of the Patriotic War of 1812 by typing a simple query on the Internet. The more than 600 thousandth army of Napoleon Bonaparte was met by the 175 thousandth Russian army, divided into three parts. Where is the numerical advantage? American sociologists also have problems with mathematics? The First World War would not have affected the internal provinces of the Russian Empire at all, if not for the "revolution". World War II did not start with an attack on Russia. If the Western countries listened to the requests of Soviet Russia and did not negotiate separately with Hitler, if they did not force him to attack the USSR, then there would be no such victims. The Germans destroyed mainly the civilian population of Ukraine, Belarus, Russia, destroyed, drove to Germany as slaves. And what is the numerical superiority? All battles up to 1944, the Red Army won without numerical superiority and superiority in weapons. According to modern terminology, the Germans staged a genocide of the population on the territory of the USSR. And they did not answer for this, not until now, because the concept of "genocide" is much broader than the concept of "war crimes" or "crimes against humanity", for which only the leaders of Nazi Germany were responsible. Hence the attitude towards Russia and the Russians, which has re-emerged in modern Germany.
    A small lie gives rise to great suspicions about the competence of certain "experts", or even entire institutions that issue expert analysis.
    As for nuclear weapons, it is unlikely that the American atomic bombings of Japanese cities in August 1945 would have ended the war if the Soviet Union had not entered the war with Japan, had not defeated the Japanese Kwantung grouping by the Red Army, had not liberated Mongolia and part of China.
    Conclusion: not fear of punishment, alas, such fear may suddenly disappear from someone, but the inevitability of punishment for aggression against Russia should stop our primordial enemies from repeating such attacks that they have made more than once in the past.
  15. Redsun
    Redsun 21 July 2021 12: 48
    +2
    NATO without the United States is not a threat. Someone will certainly remember Turkey, but this country has too big its own ambitions to become a pawn in someone else's game. The United States is not able to transfer as many forces to Europe as is necessary to compensate for the quantitative gap between the armies of Russia and the EU, and the qualitative gap is steadily narrowing. So in the event of a rapid development of events without a long preparation of the parties, and if everything does not quickly slide into a nuclear armageddon, we have a higher chance of victory.
  16. sannyhome
    sannyhome 21 July 2021 13: 45
    0
    There will be no war. The Anglo-Saxons are quite satisfied with how much they pushed us in the economy. Prices since 2008, when for the first time in this century we took a serious step towards independence, have grown by almost four, as a result of the impoverishment of the population and an increased outflow of specialists to the West. Plus, we ourselves, quite cheaply, give away our natural resources. So why fight us? Keeping in suspense, filling up with small problems - yes. Fight? Definitely not.
    1. bk316
      bk316 21 July 2021 13: 57
      +2
      Since 2008, when we took a serious step towards independence for the first time in this century, prices have increased by almost four

      You have some kind of mess in your head. What difference does it make to naglo-Saxons what are our prices inside? I would even say that they are interested in increasing our purchasing power in order to shake off their goods for us.

      Plus, we ourselves, quite cheaply, give away our natural resources.

      We deliver them to the global market, oil, steel, wheat, these are all exchange commodities.

      It gets deeper here. They definitely don't need a total war with us. BUT (maybe not in order of priority)
      1. They want to distract the population from internal problems (Skripali-Brexit)
      2. They want to gain control over our resources (not to buy, but to extract themselves, but it is better to get themselves, for example, the Arctic)
      3. They want us not to interfere with pressing third countries (Iran, Venezuela and finally China).

      All this is perfectly solved by a small victorious war. Therefore, they want to fight, only they want to fight their WAR.
      1. Terran ghost
        Terran ghost 21 July 2021 16: 14
        -3
        .They want to take control of our resources

        Who are they? If the US government is as manic as you attribute such intentions to it, would like to "by all means conquer a territory rich in minerals", then it would start with the conquest of the same Canada. It is much closer, resources from it do not need to be dragged across the ocean.
        This is the first thing. Now the second. Natural resources must first be a) mined (in warm Australia, for example, this is much easier and cheaper to do than from the permafrost beyond the Arctic Circle), b) to bring them to a condition at which they can be used (for example, if iron ore with an iron content of 65 -70 percent can be immediately processed at a metallurgical plant, then with an iron content of 25-30 percent must be pre-processed at a mining plant).
        Venezuela

        Well, if the Venezuelan tyrant Maduro (with a small letter intentionally) left voluntarily, as expected, no one would press him.
        By the way, Venezuela is an excellent example of what "bringing resources to the required condition" is. Formally, Venezuela has the largest oil reserves. But in fact, most of these stocks are of very poor quality. So much so that in order to sell them, they had to be diluted with the higher quality oil that Venezuela imported from the United States of America.
        1. bk316
          bk316 21 July 2021 17: 01
          +1
          If the US government was so manic

          You are naive here the government is not in business at all.
          Everything is determined by the elite in the person of Transnational Corporations, the government is simply hired or delegated extras. About Canada, to the point, American companies behave in Canada as at home, and in 404 and many other places even cooler than at home. But now you can't get oil in the Russian Federation and you can't even carry out exploration, as before. There was something to say there, but the process was slowed down.
          Well, if the Venezuelan tyrant Maduro (with a small letter intentionally) left voluntarily, as expected, no one would press him.

          Why should he leave, what right does the United States have to say this? Is he tyrannizing the United States?
          This is exactly what we are preventing: the role of the world hegemon and the trampling of national sovereignty.
      2. sannyhome
        sannyhome 21 July 2021 17: 03
        -1
        Quote: bk316
        You have some kind of mess in your head.

        It's funny. You do not understand what I am writing about, but porridge, for some reason, I have ... laughing
  17. bk316
    bk316 21 July 2021 13: 47
    +1
    But in recent years, the United States, which has the most powerful army in the world, has moved away from such assessments.

    I think about "filling up with corpses" has never been an expert assessment, this is all for the liberal public, its own (Western) and ours ....
  18. l.jensen
    l.jensen 21 July 2021 15: 42
    -1
    We have a lot of talks about Russia's "aggressiveness" in the media. Although the public would mostly ridicule all these inventions. I don't think anyone would be foolish enough to try to fight Russia. While everyone is happy with everything, the elite is corrupt and groveling, Pro-American, Pro-English and Pro-German. Between them there is a fuss for the favors of patrons, money is exported, raw materials flow through pipes, and cheaply. There is no pro-Russian elite. People live in poverty, minds are slowly running. The Germans in general brazenly want to dictate how Russia should supply them gas. If you look at the situation in the context of the war, then it is going on, Europe is under the Germans, the battle for Britain is lost by the Germans, Ukraine is occupied by the Germans, Russia has retreated. When will the revenge and the offensive?
  19. Vavilov
    Vavilov 21 July 2021 17: 04
    +4
    "The capital is located much closer to the west than to the center of the state, which greatly increases its vulnerability."
    so, Moscow is beyond the Urals, business is that! lol children's analysts, lol no one will climb with motorized wedges, there are enough problems inside, more serious than an external enemy, there were so many shouts about a new fighter yesterday, but the essence of it boiled down to what - will they buy or not !? will we master? all for sale, to support the pants, hucksters, ugh! there is no ideology, theft, there is no responsibility of leaders, no single integral management is visible, they do not have time to remove shoulder straps, what kind of enemies are we? outside invaders? funny to read laughing
  20. Casper Green
    Casper Green 21 July 2021 20: 46
    +1
    and where do the wives and children of all our owners live, where are their bank accounts, where do they receive treatment and rest ??? You are so stupid that you can seriously talk about the war with the homeland of the owners, are you fuckers or not yourself ???
  21. Artemion3
    Artemion3 21 July 2021 21: 00
    0
    Russia has few people, but a lot of resources, which means that it is necessary to fight with technology.
  22. Caltar
    Caltar 22 July 2021 12: 09
    0
    Never and no one gouges Russia .. until we hand over it ourselves! My ancestors, the Prussians, always fought for Russia ... And with! 812 and the Franks began to consider Russia their Motherland!
    Here are just "" Russians "want to" "drink beer" Bavarian "in the crematorium ...
  23. Bogatyrev
    Bogatyrev 23 July 2021 00: 00
    +1
    Quote: knn54
    is a tolerant, amorphous West capable of a PROLONGED WAR

    The West is completely controllable, its elites can go to any changes for the sake of victory, sacrificing the standard of living of the population and mass culture is not a problem for them. Historically, the West has demonstrated in the past the ability to adapt to any environment. If it is a long war, they will adapt to it in a matter of years.
    1. Sergeantpro
      Sergeantpro 27 July 2021 20: 05
      0
      Only all this rests on the fact that there will be no protracted full-scale war.
      1. Bogatyrev
        Bogatyrev 27 July 2021 20: 07
        0
        Well, or the Cold War seriously
        1. Sergeantpro
          Sergeantpro 27 July 2021 20: 11
          0
          The "serious cold war" is now unprofitable for the same elites for purely political and economic reasons. We will see what will happen much later, but they are pragmatic and do not set impossible or risky tasks.
          1. Bogatyrev
            Bogatyrev 27 July 2021 21: 08
            -1
            To the Russian elites, yes.
            Westerners do not. They need an enemy image to manipulate their people.
  24. Yura
    Yura 23 July 2021 08: 37
    0
    Now the war is different, in a couple of minutes of the battle the operator destroys the floor of the barmaleev platoon https://vk.com/video-123538639_456270072
  25. Sergey Pedenko
    Sergey Pedenko 23 July 2021 15: 18
    +1
    why fight at all?
  26. timokhin-aa
    timokhin-aa 23 July 2021 20: 33
    0
    And, if Moscow is not focused on an offensive war, then wouldn't a network be better at the negotiating table?


    As a small child is real
  27. Ignatius of Torquemada
    Ignatius of Torquemada 24 July 2021 12: 43
    +1
    How many times already and in different places have I read such RAND reports. This organization in the West is, of course, very significant from the point of view of military analytics and forecasting. But the thought never leaves me that this same RAND is just fooling people with epaulets heavy from the stars. In all the reports, no matter how many I have read them, there are simple and unpretentious conclusions from the Soviet magazine Zarubezhnoye Voennoye Obozreniye à la the eighties, with the only difference that at that time the aggressor was the United States and NATO, and now Russia. All analytically summarizing conclusions, assessments of reasons, causes of the past, whether victories or defeats, all, absolutely all, are as simple as amoeba conclusions. No matter how much I have not read it, I still cannot see the work of serious specialists, serious military political scientists in RAND's works. Well, I just can't see either the depth or the horizon of knowledge of the issue. Everything is primitive a hundred times already grinded - grinded, chewed - chewed. I am beginning to be sure that RAND has just found a loophole where you can pump out money to the maximum and do nothing, and if you do, then on smart cabbage soup a hundred times a worn-out record! So you know he is pumping loot into his pocket, on noodles for politicians, generals, admirals of the whole world, primarily the United States and NATO.
  28. Glad
    Glad 24 July 2021 22: 40
    0
    Russia will not be able to resist the military machine of the North Atlantic Alliance for a long time without nuclear weapons.

    Is the NATO military machine currently capable of creating real threats to an enemy equal in strength without the use of nuclear weapons? Are the personnel of the NATO armed forces ready to fight with an equal adversary, even using their own nuclear weapons? Biden will risk using nuclear weapons if Putin says tomorrow that he has made a decision to occupy the territory of the Baltic by military means? Or if China takes control of the Strait of Malacca by military means? Or Taiwan? And, without waiting for anything, right tomorrow ...
    Does the American Deep State have such solid and large Fabergés?
    If it is necessary to fight not with the dollar and economic sanctions, but with tanks and missiles, will the "masters of the planet" have enough breathing space? Someone will dare to check whether Putin or Xi is bluffing?
    Yes ... Questions ... Questions ... I am tormented by vague doubts (C).
  29. Bobik012
    Bobik012 25 July 2021 04: 57
    0
    And I liked the conviction of these analysts that the seizure of Taiwan is, after all, inevitable. Albeit in the distant future. And, like bum, opposition to this from the United States, in general, is not planned ...
    1. Sergeantpro
      Sergeantpro 27 July 2021 20: 03
      0
      In general, it is.
  30. Dmitry V.
    Dmitry V. 27 July 2021 14: 14
    +1
    And, if Moscow is not focused on an offensive war, then wouldn't a network be better at the negotiating table?

    Why do they need it?
    They already know that the Russian Federation will not attack.
    By provoking an increase in military spending in the Russian Federation to the detriment of the development of its economy, they weaken Russia.
    Fortunately, the top leadership of Russia is "being led" on provocations, increasing military spending to the detriment of the development of science, education, health care, infrastructure, thereby initiating an even greater lag behind the developed powers.
    The concept of "enemies all around" has become mainstream in the Russian state media, one has to justify why an egregiously high mortality rate from cancer should not be a priority for scientific research, and hypersonic weapons provoke an arms race ...
    Meanwhile, our doctors give advice to citizens suffering from cancer: if you have money, go to Israel to treat cancer, cancer is not a sentence there.
  31. Sergeantpro
    Sergeantpro 27 July 2021 19: 48
    0
    Quote: Lynx2000
    I heard about the black markings on the bullet which means an enhanced charge.

    Black bullet marking is not applied anywhere in Russia. There is a black bullet nose with a red stripe - B-32 (armor-piercing incendiary), but there is no pure black marking.
  32. Sergeantpro
    Sergeantpro 27 July 2021 19: 59
    0
    Quote: sannyhome
    Prices since 2008,

    How does the global financial crisis, which only partially affected Russia, relate to the topic under discussion?
  33. Sergeantpro
    Sergeantpro 27 July 2021 20: 01
    -1
    Quote: bk316
    this is all for the liberal public, its own (western) and ours ...

    It is perfectly spread on the flat foreheads of the domestic liberda.
  34. Sergeantpro
    Sergeantpro 28 July 2021 10: 42
    0
    Quote: Bogatyrev
    To the Russian elites, yes.
    Westerners do not. They need an enemy image to manipulate their people.

    La. They created the image a long time ago and if there is no one, then they will create a new one in two accounts.
    Once again, the image and the real adversary are two different things, and before talking about the benefits, it is necessary to define what the essence of the "elite" in the West is and what role one or the other plays, because you understand both in a somewhat simplistic way.