Burning Afghanistan and "Great Turan"
Burning Afghanistan
As NATO and US troops withdraw from Afghanistan, the Taliban are behaving more and more harshly towards the official Kabul. The territory under the control of the authorities is rapidly shrinking. Government forces scatter or surrender. The Americans are going to help Kabul further, but mostly financially. There will be no military capabilities left. Obviously, after the withdrawal of the main NATO forces in Afghanistan, a small number of military advisers will remain, but this is a demonstration of the flag, and not real assistance.
The Taliban are confidently coming to power. Washington, in order to calmly withdraw its troops, had to come to an agreement with the Islamists. The Taliban are the leading and richest power in the country. Their budget is formed from the sale of drugs, raw materials (mining), aid from Iran, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and other Islamic countries, and taxes on the controlled population. That allows you to maintain a fairly strong army (up to 80 thousand soldiers). As before, the Taliban will have to resolve the issue with national minorities, Hazaras, Tajiks and Uzbeks. Obviously, as before, a balance will be found. The current authorities have actually been written off. The Taliban see them as US puppets, and for good reason. That is, the coming to power of the Taliban is a generally resolved issue. There is no one to defend Kabul after the final departure of the Americans.
Thus, after the departure of the Americans, Russia receives a new threat. Afghanistan is sliding towards the scenario of Syria or Libya. A "funnel of chaos" is formed. The territory of the victorious radical Islamism. Taking into account the southern underbelly of Russia - Turkestan (the republics of Central Asia), which was greatly degraded after the collapse of the USSR, this is a serious danger. Archaization, the conditions of a new feudalism with khans and bays, who subjugated all financial flows, degradation of culture and education, created a strong social base for radical "black" Islam in Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan. It is also worth remembering the development of the criminal world and the drug mafia. Plus the global crisis, which further exacerbated the situation of ordinary people.
After nearly 20 years of war and hundreds of thousands of Afghan deaths, the Americans are leaving behind a heavy legacy. About $ 3 trillion has been wasted. Neither a stable national state, nor a strong, efficient army was created, nor did they achieve the defeat of the Taliban. The army, essentially mercenaries, swallowed up a lot of money, but never became the leading force in the country. It is completely dependent on external funding and material assistance. In addition, the soldiers have no idea or motive to die for official Kabul. As long as the salary is paid - they serve, as it gets hot - they run or give up. The United States was unable to defeat the terrible corruption (one of the world leaders), create a self-sufficient economy and defeat poverty (obviously, there were no such tasks). At the same time, Afghanistan has become a world drug factory - about 90% of world production of opium and heroin.
There is no unity among the local elites either. Some are guided by Pakistan, others by Iran, and others by China and Turkey. Some are simply engaged in drug trafficking or are following the path of further radicalization. In particular, both al-Qaeda and ISIS jihadists are based in Afghanistan.
"Great Turan"
Russia gets one more "headache". Turkey claims the place of the USA. R. Erdogan is implementing the "Great Turan" project - a new Turkish empire, pan-Turkism. On June 15, 2021, in Shusha, Aliyev and Erdogan signed a declaration on the union of Azerbaijan and Turkey. After the success in Karabakh, Baku is finally turning into a satellite of the big Turkish brother. Preparations are also underway to create a Turkish military base in Azerbaijan.
That is, NATO, represented by Turkey, occupies the former Russian sphere in the Transcaucasus, for which the Russians have shed rivers of blood over the centuries. Moreover, Erdogan is not going to stop. On the agenda is control over Central Asia, other Turkic peoples, which are included in the sphere of influence of the "Great Turan". From there, Russia will also be asked. The 1991 geopolitical catastrophe is developing. Turkish radicals also lay claim to the southern regions of the Russian Federation, Muslim regions. Russians are dying out, showing their unviability. And the Turkish ethnos is growing by 800 thousand annually. A holy place is never empty. As a result, Turkey offers the Caucasus and Central Asia a new model of regional order. Its leader and guarantor are now not Russians, but Turks.
Turkey also has its own interest in Afghanistan. US President D. Biden and Erdogan agreed that the Turkish military will play a leading role in ensuring the security of the Kabul airport after the completion of the NATO mission in Afghanistan. On the whole, Washington benefits from such a scenario when Turkey becomes the "replacement" of the United States in Afghanistan and the region as a whole. This is how American globalists pose a threat to both Russia and China. Before our eyes, another line of tension is emerging between Russia and Turkey, no longer in the Caucasus or Ukraine, but in Central Asia.
Ankara did not come to Afghanistan today. Turkey has been slowly and methodically strengthening its positions in Afghanistan for decades. Since the end of the 2000s, the Turks have been training the Afghan army. Turkey provided financial assistance to Kabul. In recent years, she has been actively investing in Afghanistan, developing her business. Also, Ankara has good ties with Qatar and Pakistan, which have their own interests in Afghanistan. Ankara can conduct a dialogue with the Taliban, Uzbeks and Tajiks.
Why does Turkey need Afghanistan?
First, to strengthen the Great Turan project. The Turks gain a foothold in Central Asia, which allows them to influence the situation in Central Asia (Turkestan). Put pressure on Russia and China (Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of the PRC, and the Uyghurs are also Turks).
Secondly, these are energy projects. Turkey is consistently moving towards becoming the most important energy hub for Europe. That allows you to influence the EU. In particular, these are neighboring Turkmenistan, another important partner for Ankara, and the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline.
Thirdly, Afghanistan is a sales market for the new Turkish empire, a source of certain types of raw materials.
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