Plans, orders and new modification. Commercial prospects of the Su-57E
Su-57 in flight. Photo by Rosoboronexport
To date, the Russian aviation the industry has launched serial production of promising Su-57 fighters for our armed forces. An export version of the aircraft was also developed, which is offered to foreign countries. Orders for such equipment have not yet been received, but their appearance is expected in the very near future. In addition, it is planned to bring to the market a new modification of the aircraft.
An ambiguous past
The issues of exporting the future aircraft have been studied almost since the start of the PAK FA program. By the beginning of the tenth years, they found the first potential customer, and also determined the principles of further cooperation. India has shown interest in the new Russian aircraft, wishing to take part in the development of its export version.
In 2010, the experienced T-50 was shown for the first time to representatives of the Indian Ministry of Defense and Aviation Industry. They were satisfied, and in 2012 there was a formal cooperation agreement. In accordance with this document, the Russian United Aircraft Corporation and the Indian Hindustan Aeronautics Limited were to develop an updated Fifth-Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA) project based on the PAK FA.
A pair of Su-57s at the MAKS-2019 salon. Photo by AP RF
It was reported that the first customer of the FGFA would be the Indian Air Force. In the future, the two countries could bring such an aircraft to the international market and start selling it to other states. However, the search for buyers, as far as we know, did not have time to start.
In the mid-tenths, the situation around the FGFA changed. The Indian side began to criticize both the joint project and the basic PAK FA / T-50. Various complaints were made against this aircraft, and doubts were also expressed as to its compliance with the 5th generation criteria. In April 2018, India withdrew from the FGFA project and it was closed.
Having stopped working on FGFA, Russian enterprises used the accumulated experience in a new project. Already at the MAKS-2019 salon, foreign guests were shown the Su-57E export fighter. Several foreign armies became interested in this machine, but no real orders have been received yet. Our specialists and managers hope that the situation will change in the near future.
Intended customers
Against the background of events around FGFA, officials from different structures have repeatedly raised the topic of potential customers for such equipment. The failure of the Russian-Indian project had virtually no effect on this trend. They again talk about potential buyers, and their circle does not change.
MAKS-2019: demonstration of the Su-57E aircraft to the Russian and Turkish leaders. Photo by AP RF
It is expected that the modern export fighter Su-57E will be of interest to various countries in the Middle East and Southeast Asia. Orders are also pending from the armies of South America. Unofficial reports previously mentioned possible deliveries to North African states showing great interest in Russian-developed military equipment.
Back in the summer of 2019, Turkey entered the circle of potential customers for the Su-57E. At MAKS-2019, the prototype was demonstrated to the military and political leadership of this country, and they did not exclude the possibility of purchasing such equipment. A real contract for the supply of aircraft has not yet been signed, but its appearance is still possible. The Turkish side is going to study its needs and proposals of foreign countries, and only after that the choice will be made in favor of the Su-57E or other imported equipment.
Even at the stage of the FGFA project, the Russian fighter attracted the attention of the Algerian Air Force. Later, representatives of this country got acquainted with the newer Su-57E and left good reviews. In the wake of these events, at the end of 2019 appeared news about signing a contract. Foreign media reported that the Algerian army ordered 14 Su-57E fighters and the same number of Su-34 bombers. Equipment with a total cost of approx. 6 billion US dollars will be transferred to the customer until 2025. However, the information about the Algerian order has not yet been officially confirmed.
A pair of Su-57 in flight. Photo of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation
There is information about other potential customers. So, in the fall of 2019, the leadership of Rostec spoke about the possible delivery of the Su-57E to the armies of India and the United Arab Emirates. The foreign press during the same period wrote about possible orders from China and Myanmar. It is noteworthy that China has two of its own 5th generation fighter projects. India after leaving FGFA only talks about a new generation, but no real steps are being observed.
New argument
A few days ago, Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov spoke about plans to create another modification of the Su-57 fighter. This time the car of the latest generation is going to be made a two-seater, which will improve performance and gain new opportunities. In addition, such an aircraft will have to attract foreign customers.
What changes the new project envisages has not yet been specified. At the same time, one can assume where they will lead. Obviously, the two-seater cockpit will make the aircraft not only combat, but also training, and this will simplify the training of pilots. The increase in the crew will reduce the workload on both pilots, at least without losing efficiency. They will use advanced electronic and computing facilities to help them in all situations.
Demonstration flights at MAKS-2017. Photo of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation
A two-seat aircraft will be able to show increased efficiency in traditional and fundamentally new scenarios. For example, positive results should be expected in the context of the group use of the Su-57 and slave UAVs. It will be easier for a crew of two to fly and control Drones.
The two-seater Su-57 may more fully correspond to the views of some potential customers on promising technology. It should be recalled that the most popular Russian fighter on the international market is the Su-30, operated by two pilots. In a number of foreign tenders recently, fighters with a two-seater cockpit also won. A promising modification of the Su-57E will be a response to such trends.
General perspectives
Russian-made combat aircraft are very popular on the international market. New orders for this or that equipment are regularly received. However, the basis of such exports is still formed by fighters of the previous 4th generation. Our first sample of the next generation is already being offered to customers, but orders for it are not yet available.
Joint flight of Su-57 and UAV S-70. The two-seater fighter will be able to control unmanned wingmen more efficiently. Photo of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation
This state of affairs is unpleasant, but it can only be considered a temporary problem. The Su-57E has every chance of gaining a foothold in the world market and even taking the place of the most popular Su-30. Several specific factors still interfere with obtaining such results, and it is necessary to get rid of them as soon as possible.
The main problem at the moment can be considered a low production rate. The production of the Su-57 is already underway using serial technology, but the number of manufactured equipment is still small. To re-equip its own aerospace forces and to fulfill foreign orders, large-scale production is required. They plan to solve this problem within the next few years, and this will lead to obvious positive consequences.
The export potential of the Su-57 can be increased by creating a new modification with a two-seater cockpit. However, such a project is still only planned, and it will take several years to develop and master production. During this time, customers can only be offered a basic single-seat aircraft.
Su57 at MAKS-2017. Photo of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation
Finding customers can be difficult for political and other reasons. The Russian Su-57E on the international market is becoming the main competitor of the American F-35 fighter. The United States already has a lot of orders for such equipment and is interested in new ones. As potential buyers, they consider countries that may also be interested in Russian aircraft. Time will show how the struggle for the contracts of these countries will look and what it will lead to.
Pending orders
Thus, the Su-57 fighter in the original and proposed two-seat version has great export prospects, but they have not yet been realized. There are several typical problems on the way of the aircraft to international contracts, which should be dealt with in the near future. As a result of such events, potential customers will begin to turn into real recipients of Russian equipment.
How soon it will be possible to solve all the problems and get the first orders - it is unclear. However, there is reason for optimism. This time, the topic of exporting the Su-57 is being discussed a few weeks before the start of the MAKS-2021 salon. It is quite possible that this is not a mere coincidence, and a long-awaited export contract will be signed at a future exhibition.
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