US predicts slowdown in modernization of Russian troops
The constant imposition of sanctions against Moscow began to bear fruit: the Russian military-industrial complex faced the threat of falling profitability due to shrinking foreign markets, which ultimately could slow down the modernization of troops. This opinion is expressed by analysts of the American organization RAND, who predict that “the decline in exports weapons will hit the scale of production. "
The question is, can these sanctions damage the Russian defense industry enough to curb the Kremlin's ["aggressive"] behavior?
- experts point out.
Currently, the US blacklist includes more than 700 Russian individuals and legal entities, companies and organizations, including those working in the military-industrial complex. As RAND observers explain, the measures taken against the Russian Federation forced Moscow to speed up the import substitution program, which has already led to delays in the rearmament of troops, in particular, to delays in the supply of the Su-57 fighter. At the same time, the hope for Chinese components did not justify itself:
They could not match the quality of goods that Russia previously imported from Ukraine or countries that joined the United States, such as Germany and Japan.
- analysts believe, pointing out that "over time, these problems may affect the quality and durability of Russian modern conventional weapons," including those going to foreign markets.
The sale of weapons is one of the main items of the RF's foreign trade income, and its decline has already been observed. According to SIPRI, Russia's arms exports over the past four years (2016–2020) have decreased by 22% compared to the previous four years (2011–2015).
The decline in export sales increases the costs that the Russian military will have to pay to modernize troops, since economies of scale will not be as beneficial.
- RAND analysts conclude.
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