Military Review

What the IMF does not argue about with the Central Bank - about the "hole" in the balance sheet

32

Percentage is not a tool, but a means



With this restless May, only specialists paid close enough attention to two events that are directly related to the activities of the country's main credit institution - the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.

The first of them is an absolutely unexpected and, as it seems to us, hardly necessary pick with the International Monetary Fund. For what reason? According to the very traditional - about the key rate, which it was recently decided to raise - first to 4,5, and then to 5 percent per annum (This old, old, new bet).

And this is despite the clearly indicated in all strategic materials not only of the Central Bank, but much higher, the course of suppressing inflation. Until recently, it should have been brought down to at least 4%, but now it is simply pointless to talk about such a benchmark.

If even for a select few - "favorite" banks of the Central Bank, money is a percentage more expensive, then what can we say about the financial system and the economy of the country as a whole. And, as a consequence, about consumer prices and the welfare of citizens who received no more than a minimum from the treasury during the pandemic.

Who is the turtle here?


Yes, the advice from the IMF on the reduction of the key rate was a little late - as the pandemic emerged in Russia, the situation worsened not only with the rise in prices, but also with the money circulation in general. And this is against the background of mass impoverishment of citizens, many of whom were left not only without work, but also without any benefits.

But the slowness of the IMF does not negate the need to return to soft monetary policy as soon as possible. Otherwise, put an end to all hopes for economic revival.

The current financial problems, in which our Central Bank itself played an important role, do not give reason to simply dismiss the IMF as if it were an annoying fly. In the end, if the country is so bad with cheap loans, then the IMF has always been in complete order with this.

And they will not pay attention to any sanctions there. Meanwhile, suffering considerable losses in assets, the Central Bank for some reason suddenly gives a sharp rebuff to the International Monetary Fund for the fact that it "has been working out recommendations for too long."

According to the first deputy chairman of the Central Bank Sergei Shvetsov, it may be fair, “they no longer meet the requirements of the economic situation". But we are getting bad with finances right now - the Central Bank, having raised the rate, has just signed it.

Compare the IMF with "it takes a long time for a turtle to work out its recommendation"- this is spectacular, but our gentlemen, the state bankers themselves, are not much better. It is believed that they were late with a high rate, but in fact, they were rather in a hurry.

But they said very confidently that everything “did the right thing - raised the rate this year, ensuring price stability". Let them at least now explain how the rise in the cost of credit itself has a positive effect on price stability. Or are they hiding something from us?

Who's got a hole in his pocket?


Well, for example, unauthorized ruble emission or spending of gold and foreign exchange reserves. This is the second event in May associated with our most central bank. The press leaked data on a record "hole" in the currency balance of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.

The situation is painfully reminiscent of the US mortgage crisis in 2007-2008. and the subsequent collapse of the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac funds. Tu history it is necessary to briefly recall, since the details for more than ten years have clearly blurred.

In the United States, towards the end of 2007, there was a huge gap between mortgage loans and the real solvency of citizens. The real estate market in a matter of days already in 2008 fell from $ 10 trillion to $ 4 trillion with a loss of six trillion at once.

Then it was almost half of the US national debt. In a series of bankruptcies, the companies and those same funds - accumulators of funds - have become poorer by a total of $ 350 billion. Russia is now clearly on the verge of this, although the amount is, of course, smaller at stake.

But raising rates in a similar situation is just shamelessly robbing gullible citizens. The Americans were actually saved by the global crisis, comparable in amounts to the Great Depression, and it is not clear how we can save ourselves.

Probably referring to the untimely advice of the IMF. It is also good that in the Russian case we are talking about a "hole" of only $ 15 billion. This is how outside experts assess the immediate risks for the domestic economy.

What the IMF does not argue about with the Central Bank - about the "hole" in the balance sheet

Currency assets - its monetary connection with the world economy, without which we are nowhere, nothing can be done. But these assets include currency, special drawing rights and a reserve position in the IMF, in fact, at the full disposal of the completely independent Central Bank of the Russian Federation.

Not everything for sale


Although, according to the law, all this is the main part of the international reserves of the Russian Federation. The discrepancy in the figures according to the Central Bank reports indicates, most likely, that our reserves in foreign currency bring income significantly lower than the level of internal inflation, that is, they are gradually burning out.

How long it was possible to warn about this, we, sorry, do not know (Our most central central bank in the world). We will be told from the Central Bank again and again that the reserves are stored in highly reliable and highly liquid assets. Yes, but at the same time low-profit, alas.

So why, then, to the last resist with the printout of the same National Security Fund? Having invested at least part of its funds in the development of infrastructure, in promising industries, and finally, simply in people, we may get even less return than with those very "assets".

But we will help very many to survive, and the economy, most likely, will be warmed up so that it will return everything in full. Not only the export of oil and gas and continue to live. Moreover, a cold foreign policy a priori does not imply a guarantee of preserving "the success of financial activities and trade».

It was a micro quote from the materials of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation itself. Back in February, the IMF almost imposed a rate cut from 4,25 percent to 3,75 percent from the IMF. It is somehow hard to believe that since then everything has changed so much not for the better.

Or has the financial crisis already happened? And we weren't even allowed to notice? It was then that the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina reminded that the IMF in its recommendations proceeds from other inflation expectations than the Russian regulator.


Where did the inflation expectations come from in February, quite recently - from under the printing press or from the data on state reserves? Most likely, both took place. It is necessary to print money, since it is necessary to fulfill the promised citizens, and the reserves, more precisely, the part that can be used, is becoming less and less.

Instead of PS


No, the Bank of Russia today has not gone into the shadows under the threat of being checked by the Accounts Chamber, which, from this department, its head Alexei Kudrin speaks of as a real prospect. But for some reason no one believes.

The independence, one might say, the independence of the Central Bank has repeatedly allowed its critics to compare the institution with a sort of sacred cow, and the Board of Directors, of course, with bad shepherds.

Your authors - we admit, just from among such critics on duty, although they never stooped to this - you know, read (Our central bank. Who does he serve?). In addition, they have always paid tribute to the leadership of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation for their ability to distance themselves from foreign colleagues, who, by the way, regularly recognized its representatives as "the best in the industry."

However, the ostentatious Fronde sometimes exceeds the boundaries, no, not reasonable, but permissible, although what the hell is not joking, and will we be carried over again? Oil and gas will not run out soon, and the launch of Nord Stream 2 is not far off. But why take away reserves from their own children?
Author:
Photos used:
cbr.ru, logincasino.com, event.ru
32 comments
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  1. Woodman
    Woodman 31 May 2021 15: 09
    +7
    Back in February, the IMF almost imposed a rate cut from 4,25 percent to 3,75 percent from the IMF
    I'm not sure if the IMF is pursuing good goals for Russia. Although I also do not know what goals the Central Bank is guided by.
    The press leaked data on a record "hole" in the currency balance of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation
    Citing "unnamed sources"? I just somehow did not hear about this news ...
    1. Anachoret
      Anachoret 31 May 2021 15: 52
      +2
      well, it also happens somehow)))
    2. Mishka78
      Mishka78 31 May 2021 16: 31
      0
      Yes, a lot of places slipped that week.
      https://rg.ru/2021/05/26/opasna-li-dyra-v-balanse-rossijskih-bankov-v-15-mlrd-dollarov.html
  2. The leader of the Redskins
    The leader of the Redskins 31 May 2021 15: 16
    +8
    They say that a wallet is a house for money. And no matter how I look - no one is at home!) laughing
    Recently I came across this joke on the Internet.
    If people can still joke about money, then not everything is lost.
  3. Thrifty
    Thrifty 31 May 2021 15: 19
    +11
    Will Kudrin come with a check-a golden shower will fall on the population, the dollar will cost 15 kopecks a kilogram, the Kremlin will invest in the real sector of the economy, and massively create new jobs? Everything will end with recommendations, appointment of a scapegoat, distribution of creedites to "pocket banks", new hanging noodles on the ears right on top of the old one. In the country, the population is only for picking, so that it is possible to continue to tear from this population from three to ten skins, declaring that this is the very good deed done "in the interests of the population!" it is pointless to expect anything else from the authorities.
    1. Mishka78
      Mishka78 31 May 2021 16: 40
      +7
      Shcha kaaak nabigut, yes kaaak will tell you that we have the lowest taxes in the world, only 13% :)

      As for Kudrin, everything is so.
      At the end of 2019, violations were identified (we read - stolen) worth 900 billion. The main amount was on public procurement. Of these, 16 billion were returned to the budget. Less than 2%.
      So nothing changes from his checks for the population. Probably the beneficiaries of these violations make some conclusions at the top. For example, they are removed from the next purchases. Well, or the premium is deprived, xs But we are not informed about this.
  4. tralflot1832
    tralflot1832 31 May 2021 15: 24
    .
    And this is nothing that China has just emerged from the crisis, and the rest are sitting and we, too, in full ass. Where do the dollars and euros come from?
    1. Thrifty
      Thrifty 31 May 2021 15: 39
      +5
      Tralflot-that we are China, and that we are China, when the Yankees themselves constantly mockingly ask about the hundreds of billions of dollars exported from Russia in foreign accounts in a heap of non-our banks? This money is there at interest, the profit goes to whomever it is necessary, and the plundered people are forced to tighten the belt tighter, not thinking and not wanting to deal with the real problems of the economy and the country. To begin with, it is necessary not only to return the money and interest on it to the country, but also to actually transfer those who took this money out of circulation, hid it from being transferred to the state, and there such names will emerge that everything will be simply hidden! The powers that be themselves will not put themselves in prison, it is better to flee the country on the sly, as did many officials, who put too much in their own pocket!
      1. tralflot1832
        tralflot1832 31 May 2021 15: 52
        .
        You do not hold our billionaires for suckers. Already a hundred times all foreign accounts have been verified, if there were significant amounts long ago sanctions against them would have been imposed. They know the history of finance very well. During the fuel crisis of the 70s, the Anglo-Saxons cleaned up the oil Arabs in London well. there are no friendly relations with the West.
        1. Thrifty
          Thrifty 31 May 2021 16: 24
          +4
          Tralflot, you are clearly more than five years old, and sometimes write such nonsense, complete horror! Who will return your money - Yankees, Brits, the same Chinese? The money in their banks works for theirs, not our economy! Dobrokhotov can only be found in Russia, all the others live according to the shark laws of capitalism, devouring the weaker one, and pocketing other people's goods for themselves! A simple example for you with the billions of dollars of state funds of these countries exported from Iraq, Libya, and when did the Yankees return even a cent? And there is no need to impose sanctions against "our" bankers, it is enough to look at their foreign passports, you will understand on whose economies Russian money works! After that, will you shoot in the breastfeeding hand? There is no need to offend "our" financiers, they will still come in handy when these billions run out!
  5. Daniil Konovalenko
    Daniil Konovalenko 31 May 2021 15: 25
    +4
    But why should you take away reserves from your own children?
    They do not take away their reserves from their children.
  6. Alexey Lantukh
    Alexey Lantukh 31 May 2021 15: 38
    +8
    The article is about nothing. Complete incompetence. A hole in the currency balance: what is it about? Currency whether it is or not. Each currency is recorded on the balance sheet of the country that issued it. Dollars - USA, Euro - Euro Central Bank, Russia - includes rubles. And the Central Bank keeps its currency either in accounts in other inbanks, or in bonds of other states. The other is not given by nature.
    1. Mishka78
      Mishka78 31 May 2021 16: 46
      +5
      As a bank clerk, I will explain. The hole is not at the Central Bank. A hole in the BS. Those. banks' liabilities exceed their assets. This is not really critical. Globally, the BS has a significant liquidity surplus.
  7. faterdom
    faterdom 31 May 2021 15: 45
    +9
    After the Central Bank, created to stabilize the national currency, announced (with the arrival of Nabiulina) that it was letting the ruble go into a free exchange rate ... trying to delve into its chaotic actions is pointless.
    This is how the Ministry of Internal Affairs would declare: "We will rape and rob, and on the way we will crush everyone with cars!"
    Although ... what looks impossible for law enforcement agencies, for some reason, is considered normal for financial and economic.
    So we exist among "negative growth" and "volatility" ...
    So, three of you will meet you in the gateway at the dusk, and right there with a proposal for cooperation: "Negative growth or volatility!" ("Life or Wallet" is obsolete.)
  8. moscowp
    moscowp 31 May 2021 16: 36
    +2
    Surprisingly stupid article, of course. "What did you want to say?"
    When you need to write about something, but you yourself do not understand what you are writing about.
  9. depressant
    depressant 31 May 2021 17: 29
    +4
    although what the hell is not joking, and we will be "carried over" again

    Probably, with such a question it is better to contact the prediction department of NIICHAVO.

    The Divination and Prophecy Department occupied the entire third floor. I walked along the doors with signs "Group of coffee grounds", "Group of augurs", "Group of pythias", "Synoptic group", "Group of solitaire", "Solovetsky Oracle". I didn't have to de-energize anything, since the department was working by candlelight. A fresh chalk inscription appeared on the doors of the synoptic group: "Water is dark in the clouds." Every morning, Merlin, cursing the intrigues of the envious, wiped off this inscription with a wet rag, and every night it was renewed.

    Strugatsky, "Monday starts on Saturday."
    1. Ryaruav
      Ryaruav 31 May 2021 20: 45
      0
      You forgot about the WTO and IMF plaques, that's just the devil sitting
  10. A. Privalov
    A. Privalov 31 May 2021 19: 01
    -2
    I quite a bit, purely for the sake of sports interest, monitor inflation and the key rate in the Russian Federation.
    I do not see anything contrary to financial laws in the actions of the Central Bank. If inflation rises, the key rate should be raised.

    On April 22, the Bank of Russia raised its inflation forecast for 2021 from 3,7-4,2% to 4,7-5,2%.
    The Central Bank noted that in March, annual inflation reached 5,79%, which is significantly higher than the target of 4%. The Bank of Russia has set itself the task of keeping inflation close to the target level of 4%.
    The 4% level was also not chosen by chance. Such inflation is optimal for Russia in order to stimulate economic development. If inflation is less, it can slow down economic growth. So we have to raise the key rate.
    Do I need to explain to those present that the key rate affects inflation? Just to remind you of the basic principle:

    If the central bank raises the key rate, money in the economy is becoming more expensive. This means that after it the interest rates on loans and deposits are increasing. People and companies in such a situation are less willing to take loans, which means they spend less on purchases and invest less. At the same time, high rates on deposits motivate them to save more. As a result, the demand for goods and services decreases, prices stop growing and, as a result, inflation is slowing down.

    And vice versa, with a decrease in the key rate money becomes cheaper, interest rates on loans and deposits are falling. People and companies take more loans, spend and invest more, save less. This leads to increased demand, higher prices and increase in inflation.

    Finally, it will be interesting to take a look at the chart of the key rate level in recent years.

    PS For those interested in the topic:
    The Bank of Israel keeps its key interest rate at 0.1%.
    1. Thrifty
      Thrifty 31 May 2021 19: 58
      +3
      Halts hi take nabiullina for yourself, and kudrin, the interest rate will be above 5 percent minimum in a couple of months. ... sad
      1. A. Privalov
        A. Privalov 31 May 2021 21: 06
        +2
        Quote: Thrifty
        Halts hi take nabiullina for yourself, and kudrin, the interest rate will be above 5 percent minimum in a couple of months. ... sad

        Our Central Bank specially underestimated the rate. This is to stir up the economy so that entrepreneurs can take out cheap loans. We have inflation of 1%. This is also bad. Means stagnation. We need to do our best to encourage and help industrialists to get out of the hole after three lockdowns.
        Our pandemic is over. There are already a few patients. From tomorrow, all epidemic restrictions will be lifted, you need to move more spaciously, look into the future. hi
        1. aybolyt678
          aybolyt678 2 June 2021 08: 09
          0
          Quote: A. Privalov
          Our Central Bank deliberately lowered the rate. This is to stir up the economy so that entrepreneurs can take out cheap loans.

          entrepreneurs take loans not from the Central Bank but from banks. Today, the real percentage at which you can borrow money is almost 17 percent. That is, the key rate is just a way to make money for banks wassat
          1. A. Privalov
            A. Privalov 2 June 2021 08: 23
            0
            Quote: aybolyt678
            entrepreneurs take loans not from the Central Bank but from banks. Today, the real percentage at which you can borrow money is almost 17 percent. That is, the key rate is just a way to make money for banks

            Commercial banks are only the first in this chain. With a high key rate, of course, the interest in the bank is higher. But then they will take less loans, because it is expensive. However, it is beneficial to put money into savings because the interest is high.
            In our area, with 0,1 key, a loan can be taken at 4,7 - 6,8, depending on the term and goals. Mortgage 4,1-5,3. Short-term up to 50 shekels (000 dollars) 15% per annum. But with a decreasing percentage. hi
            1. aybolyt678
              aybolyt678 2 June 2021 14: 45
              0
              Quote: A. Privalov
              However, it is beneficial to put money into savings because the interest is high.

              it is unprofitable for the bank to take money from you at a higher interest rate than it takes from the Central Bank. And this percentage is lower than real inflation in our area.
              1. A. Privalov
                A. Privalov 2 June 2021 15: 10
                +1
                Quote: aybolyt678
                it is unprofitable for the bank to take money from you at a higher interest rate than it takes from the Central Bank. And this percentage is lower than real inflation in our area.

                That's right, it is more profitable to take a loan from us. The interest on savings deposits is very low. This encourages people to invest not in growth, but in business. We need to raise inflation a little so that people spend more money differently, stagnation.
                You have the opposite. We need to lower inflation. For this, the Central Bank raises the key rate. Loans are taken less. Inflation is going down. I have no real figures for your inflation. I use reference.
                1. aybolyt678
                  aybolyt678 3 June 2021 07: 04
                  0
                  Quote: A. Privalov
                  We need to raise inflation a little so that people spend more money differently, stagnation.
                  You have the opposite. We need to lower inflation.

                  Your banks have interest on treasuries from our banks, it somehow fills your currency. Our currency is doomed to have more inflation than yours. Fighting inflation by raising the key rate is like fighting a cough by tightening the noose around your neck.
  11. faterdom
    faterdom 31 May 2021 20: 10
    -1
    Quote: A. Privalov
    I do not see anything contrary to financial laws in the actions of the Central Bank. If inflation rises, the key rate should be raised.

    You have nothing to compare this with. We live here.
    For the whole last year, inflation has been growing for itself, the price of an apartment has jumped by 40-50 percent, food in some forms is about the same, gasoline and housing and communal services in the usual way.
    But an order came from above: inflation was defeated, it is practically gone, we are reducing the rate as proof, we are going to the Soviet level of 2% on deposits, we are taxing deposits with income tax!
    So, the TV and the actions of the Central Bank - in one direction, life - in the other!
    And an increase of 40-50% is not a sparrow sneezing for you, it is very noticeable to everyone.
    1. A. Privalov
      A. Privalov 31 May 2021 21: 36
      0
      Quote: faterdom
      For the whole last year, inflation has been growing for itself, the price of an apartment has jumped by 40-50 percent, food in some forms is about the same, gasoline and housing and communal services in the usual way.

      That's right, inflation was on the rise. And you say, and the Central Bank confirms. So he raises the rate in order to reduce inflation. Everything is correct, but how else? hi
      1. aybolyt678
        aybolyt678 3 June 2021 07: 18
        0
        Quote: A. Privalov
        Everything is correct, but how else?

        otherwise, it is necessary to combine the functions of the Ministry of Economic Development, the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank and introduce firing squad responsibility for the decline in development
  12. Ryaruav
    Ryaruav 31 May 2021 20: 42
    0
    how you want this whole company that sits on our hump and still spurs to see in court steeper than the Nuremberg one, here are traitors to the motherland who repainted on the fly whores
  13. Normal ok
    Normal ok 31 May 2021 21: 33
    0
    The debt of Russians on mortgages has already exceeded 10 trl. rubles.
  14. Conjurer
    Conjurer 2 June 2021 12: 29
    0
    Quote: A. Privalov
    Our Central Bank deliberately lowered the rate. This is to stir up the economy

    Cool. They just explained that the Russian Central Bank raised the rate correctly. Ie, based on your explanations, he is trying to freeze the economy.
    In fact, there is no such rule, or rather, it is blurred by many influencing factors. For example, if the economy grows even at the level of inflation, then the increase in the rate will freeze it, that is, it will go down. If it does not grow or falls, then the rate increase is necessary to remove the excess money supply from the market, which provokes an increase in inflation.
    1. aybolyt678
      aybolyt678 2 June 2021 14: 57
      0
      Quote: Conjurer
      if the economy grows even at the inflation rate

      the biggest problem is how to measure this "growth"? If we take science-intensive industries, with a large share of Russian science, then I see only a loss of competencies. Well, except for the military, although everything is very confusing there.