But now it's time to return to the material two weeks ago. I mean the next Arab-Israeli war, which has already received its own name - "11-day". Both sides, according to their own statements, carried out this campaign with great success. Both sides won. The list of those killed and injured in this war has been replenished on both sides.
Israel and Hamas + Fatah have shown their strength. The power of your armies and the weakness of the enemy. We cleaned our own arsenals from dusty missiles and shells. We worked out the help of the allies. Now the Israeli side and Hamas, together with Fatah, can with a clear conscience not only report to the sponsors about the victory, but also demand increased new financial investments to restore the combat power of their armies.
Although, if you look closely, this war practically did not solve any of the tasks set. Here I mean exactly military tasks. Elimination of the reasons that blew on the sparks for a fire. After all, it is clear that ordinary Israelis and Palestinians do not need this war. War is death! And, above all, the death of the civilian population. The military in such conflicts has a greater chance of surviving than civilians.
Have you won over and calmed down?
It is very difficult to find victory where there is none. But I'll try. And I'll start with the winners. From Israel and Hamas. But the question arises as to why the sides went to aggravation, rather tough confrontation? And ... agreed to a truce quickly enough? Nothing comes from nothing. You can always find the hidden reasons for any action, any conflict, any war.
So what kind of victory did Israel win?
Yes, some of the Hamas leaders have been destroyed. Just what does this give the Israelites? Absolutely nothing! The enemy can make up for the losses in a matter of days. I will not write about the quality of the replacement, simply because it does not matter, in conditions when the command staff is appointed from among the current commanders. Participation and actions in battle are the best measure of the quality of a commander.
Destroyed a hundred kilometers of the so-called "Metro", the Hamas system of underground passages? And what is the victory here? Except for a certain number of militants hiding in these tunnels before the raid? These communications are also easily restored, but in other places. This means that Israeli intelligence is adding to the headache.
Destroyed 74 government offices and government agencies in the Gaza Strip? 5 large residential high-rises in the center of Gaza were destroyed to the ground Are 1800 Palestinian homes destroyed and 16800 damaged, also a victory? Experts have already calculated that restoration will require at least $ 350 million! And the 232 killed Palestinians, of whom 64 are children, also a victory? Maybe 1900 wounded Palestinians are a victory?
At the same time, many problems were revealed and several myths about Israel collapsed.
How many decades have we been poked in the nose with the great invention of the Jews, the Iron Dome? And what is the bottom line? The dome works great against flying water pipes and gas cylinders, but proved ineffective against even outdated and outdated combat missiles.
I spoke with specialists who understand air defense by an order of magnitude more than mine. According to their estimates, the "Iron Dome" showed an efficiency of 50 to 60% and loses its effectiveness during massive shelling due to some technical features, such as the loading time of the installation.
Just over 4000 missiles were fired across the country. Of which 610 simply did not reach Israel. About half were knocked down by the "dome", some (from 10 to 15%) did not even hit the territories of cities and fell outside the settlements. But did the rest hit the mark? If, of course, the goal is to consider the city. "Pipes" do not fly where they are directed, but where they want to.
There is one more "legend", which, in general, turned out to be zilch. I mean another Israeli "piece of iron" - "Iron Ray"! The same combat laser, which in 4–5 seconds is capable of destroying any enemy missile by warming up the body. Well? .. I have not found a single message about the successful use of the "Iron Beam" in the war. They used it, but no missiles were actually shot down.
And everything returned to normal. Those same American F-16I Sufa fighters, armed with precision bombs and missiles. Those same reconnaissance and strike UAVs, armed with the same bombs. The same large-caliber laser-guided projectiles. This is what ensured real victories in battle.
Alas, without offending the Israelis, this weapon designed for a war in the deserts, on clean fields. In the conditions of urban development, it turns into a conventional weapon of destruction, which we saw in reality. Any eastern city is built up in such a way that it is impossible to destroy an object without destroying many others around.
Now we cross the line of demarcation and look at the other winners, Hamas and Fatah. As far as I know, the Palestinians are still celebrating victory. Why, Israel got scared of the formidable Arab warriors and backed down. The entire Israeli army was afraid to storm the Gaza Strip and crawled back like beaten puppies.
Everyone pretends that this was the main goal of the war.
But what really?
In fact, Israel, in addition to the already mentioned refusal to attack the Gaza Strip, which, in my opinion, is quite justified both from a military and from a human point of view, has not abandoned its plans and actions. Has the war brought the real creation of a Palestinian state even one iota closer? Also no.
Release all Arabs from prison? Well, yes, Tel Aviv is just running to fulfill the requirements. Not to use security forces in the Al-Aqsa mosque? Well yes. We will not. Exactly until the moment when new riots begin. And so on, for all questions.
But the Palestinians try not to mention these results of the war.
Are there real victories for the Palestinians, or rather, what they can really boast of? There is! First of all, it is the quantity and quality of missiles that are in service, and which are the cause of the deaths of those 12 Israeli civilians who died in this war.
If you look closely at what flew in the direction of Israeli cities, you will notice significant differences from what happened before. The existing short-range missiles (from 8 to 20 km) were supplemented by missiles with a firing range of 40 to 80 km. But most importantly, the A-120, R-160, M 180, Ayash-250 missiles appeared in service. As you understand, the number in the name is just the firing range. This means that Hamas missiles can already strike throughout Israel!
More importantly, the Palestinians began to use the weapon that the Israelis have always been proud of - the UAV! Drone-kamikaze "Shehab". It was created using the technologies of the Iranian unmanned aerial vehicle "Ababil-2". It was this drone that successfully attacked the Israeli chemical plant in Nir Oz. The emergence of the UAV was an unpleasant surprise for Israel.
The new missiles slightly changed the tactics of using missile weapons, for which the Israelis were also not ready, but which significantly changed the attitude of the civilian population to shelling. Israeli cities are well equipped with defenses. When a missile attack was announced, the Israelis had time to get there. But that was before.
The Palestinians have demonstrated very different tactics today. The missiles are launched along a more flat trajectory. Thus, the flight range is lost, but the time it takes to detect the missile by radars is significantly reduced. With some blows, this time varied from one and a half to two minutes. To manage to hide in a bomb shelter in such a time is problematic.
A little about the real winners in the war
Meanwhile, it seems to me, there are real winners in this war. Those who have undoubtedly won. Moreover, on both sides. Alas, this is not a military victory. This is not even a victory for the state. This is a personal victory for the leaders of Israel and Hamas. Again politics. The deep roots of war were in the same place as all wars before. Power!
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Remember the intentions of the Knesset members to deprive Netanyahu of power? Opponents of the prime minister gathered deputies under their banners in order to overthrow Bibi in the next elections (as the Israelis seem to call him). Indeed, the chances of re-election were slim.
What happened today? Many of the deputies after this war turned their faces to Benjamin Netanyahu. A coalition of opponents of the prime minister has split. And, according to Israeli experts, in the upcoming elections, the prime minister's chances of re-election are quite high, even if he cannot assemble a decent team.
Hamas and Fatah. about the same situation as that of the Prime Minister of Israel. There is a rather serious internal struggle for influence. The challenge for Hamas today is to expand its influence in the West Bank of Jordan. And this requires a victory. And she's drawn. The authority of Hamas among the Arab countries has grown significantly.
And what was happening around the "tatami"
Any war is like a fight of fighters on a tatami, in a cage, in a ring. And besides those who directly fight, there are coaches, masseurs, sparring partners, and someone else from the team. And there are those who come just to look at the fighters. They scream, stamp their feet, whistle in both directions. They don't care who wins. The spectacle itself, the duel itself, is important to them.
A few words about the trainers of fighters. First of all, about the head coach who ... trains both fighters. That's right, both participants in the fight. Naturally, I am talking about the United States. For a long time I tried to understand the intricacies of American policy in this region, but I cannot say that the solitaire has developed.
On the one hand, the United States is actively supporting Israel. $ 4,5 billion annually to strengthen Israel's defenses says something. Blinken's declared course towards "two peoples - two states" is an oil on the souls of both Palestinians and Israelis.
But what are the boundaries of the United States proposed to create Palestine? I have already written about Jerusalem and the American embassy there. How do the Americans propose to divide the Arabs and deprive them of Israeli citizenship? The picture of poor and uneducated Arabs will not work here. Israeli Arabs are educated and adequate. The Palestinians will not want to leave well-fed Israel, knowing full well what the standard of living will be in Palestine.
It is also completely incomprehensible to me how the United States wants to improve the lives of the Palestinians with the help of humanitarian operations. Considering the influence of Hamas and the like among the Arabs. Make a deal with Hamas? Impossible. Simply because the United States and several other countries have recognized this organization as terrorist.
And Hamas itself will not agree to direct negotiations with the United States, realizing that the main demand of the United States will be the recognition of Israel. But if any organization recognizes the legitimacy of Israel, the Arabs will turn their backs on it. There will be no options at all to take any place in the power of the new state.
So, with one hand, the United States is arming Israel, with the other hand it is trying to appease the Palestinians with humanitarian aid. And what is the bottom line? As a result, the dissatisfaction of both sides. The claims are well-founded, I must say.
Israel, except the Americans, is supported by no one. In words, yes, in deeds, no. But Hamas has a couple of "trainers". This is a strength training coach from Iran and a moral and psychological training coach from Turkey. It is clear that the first is the main supplier of weapons, and the second is the main tuner and quiet assistant.
I still do not understand how, in principle, the enemies, judging by the actions in Syria, can jointly support the Palestinians. I'm not sure, but, quite possibly, after some time we will be able to see some steps towards rapprochement of the positions of Turkey and Iran. Moreover, elections are coming soon in Iran, and a change of the ruling clan is quite possible.
Well, the viewer. One, but what - Russia. To be honest, I was a little afraid that in this war we would take someone's side. This would really weaken the position of our country in the region. If you think about it, diplomats are doing a fine job of maintaining good relations with both sides.
We shout at the rule breakers, at the Israelis for the destroyed children, at the destroyed houses, at the Arabs because of the massive shelling. In fact, we behave exactly like fans. "Judge for soap", realizing that no one will do it. As well as understanding that the game will end and the spectacle too. Apart from aesthetic satisfaction, there will be nothing left. Life will just continue.
Briefly at the end
As I predicted, another war did not resolve any issues. Again, blood, death, destruction just like that. For self-satisfaction of the ambitions of the ruling forces. At the same time, the people are inspired with the idea of some kind of victory. About some achievements that will bring closer the solution of the issue of creating a full-fledged Palestinian state.
It seems to me that Israelis and Palestinians simply cannot live without each other. In biology, there is the concept of many forms of coexistence of living organisms. What I see today can be called antibiosis. Both peoples, living in the same territory, receive harm from coexistence or experience a negative impact.
I will put forward, perhaps, a utopian theory for resolving the conflict.
It is just necessary to transfer living together to another level of mutual influence. It is necessary for symbiosis to arise. So that both peoples, living together, mutually help each other. The Jewish people did what they can do well, and the Palestinians do what they can do.
I see no other way. Not now, not in the future.