From the editorial board
An essay about Oleg Khmelev, written by his son, one of the youngest authors of the "Military Review", in January scored an enviable two hundred and a half thousand views. Therefore, about him - our new browser, everything or almost everything can be found there (I was asked to write about my father).
But one could only guess that Ratibor, the son of Oleg Khmelev, learned to prepare quite professional essays, not without the help and support of his father. And not even know that Colonel Khmelev is sometimes ready to sit down at the computer and type his 100 or a little more lines.
Because he can no longer remain silent, and is ready to speak directly and write about what awaits, or rather, he can wait for Russia and you and me in the foreseeable future. So, the floor goes to Oleg Khmelev, border guard, colonel, albeit retired, Hero of Russia.
This, alas, is not a utopia
The world is changing and it is happening very quickly. The events predicted once, it turns out, have already happened. And the expectation of a near end (biblical expectation) no longer seems utopian. But the conversation is not about that now.
Trying to tear myself away from reality, I look at the world map: in the early 90s of the last century, the USSR collapsed. We do not discuss the reasons, they are different. And they must be considered exclusively in a complex, and not pulled out of context.
The peoples of the Soviet Union with post-perestroika syndrome enthusiastically destroyed the state, created by decades of hard work, and hoped for a new, just and so alluring "tomorrow." A word in which all the desires of the peoples inhabiting the now former state are realized.
But, as in many other countries, the collapse of the empire or the change of the system never passed bloodlessly, when the sweet veil of dreams was overshadowed by the bitter truth of life. Events in Kyrgyzstan, Armenia and Azerbaijan, Tajikistan, then in Chechnya (we look at the map and neighbors) showed everyone our true essence, and how easily we can descend to this extreme - war with ourselves.
The causes of conflicts are not difficult to decompose (pull them out of the Internet), but the main one lies on the surface and, unfortunately, is always ignored (overwritten) by the elites: the intervention of bordering foreign states to resolve their territorial claims against the background of the weakening of Russia.
The conflict in Karabakh (the zone of influence of Turkey - a NATO member), Tajikistan (Afghanistan, China, UAE, Iran, USA traditionally), Chechnya (Turkey, UAE, Iran, USA and NATO traditionally) - often it is the citizens of these states that are recorded in various forms ...
From ordinary militants to gang leaders, spies and terrorists, also called upon to deteriorate the political system. Subsequently, key figures of the conflicts who left the game found permanent residence on the territory of these very states.
The active phase of instability along the border of Russia (with the exception of Ukraine) in all directions is currently on pause, the reasons for which are explained by the protracted internal struggle in the United States and being bogged down in the Middle East theater (Afghanistan, Syria, Iraq).
As a result, we are witnessing an ongoing plan in relations with Russia. Turkey has started an independent game to expand its influence in our Caucasus: events in Karabakh (Georgia is already tied to Turkey and the United States), as well as in Syria and Iraq.
Trite, but true
The notorious expansion of the sphere of influence masks a banal increase in territories. And these processes have been launched long ago. And it only takes time to change — one generation.
Tajikistan is currently in both a turbulent state and a bifurcation point. The influence of China and its quiet expansion with fine tuning of the elites is no longer hidden. Local elites have been pro-Chinese for 10 years already.
And nothing has passed since the shots of the civil war died down. And possible US intervention could provoke another conflict. In the future, the battle for Tajikistan. And Russia's participation in the upcoming conflict over this region is questionable - large and, frankly, immodest.
Where, it would seem, is Russia and where is Tajikistan? Is all this far, difficult and expensive? But it is precisely the near future of Russia that lies in this country at the crossroads of the interests of China and the United States.
Tajikistan borders Afghanistan. And we remember that it was from there that the first wave of Islamic extremism went to the territory of the former republics of the Soviet Union in 1989-1994. Then the extremist focus shifted to the North Caucasus.
And if the second wave repeats with the active provocation of the United States, then the whole of Central Asia (Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan) will explode. The interests of the United States are not hidden, they are declared in the country's strategy and lie in the plane of containing China - Russia.
Moreover, it is convenient to pull the strings of one's influence from the very advantageous position of Afghanistan. That is why the current US President Joe Biden speaks so vaguely about the withdrawal of his military contingent from Afghanistan.
It is sad to realize that Central Asia is now dependent on the US game. And how can this be explained (put into the head) to the elites with the eastern mentality? Unclear. After all, as you know, all elites have children, business and money exactly there, in the West.
And in the short term, in the event of a failed attempt to persuade the neighbors, the fire of internecine war will flare up again, which will be extinguished again by Russia.
On this noble path, it is she who urgently needs to put together a loyal alliance of the special services of the republics in Central Asia and strengthen the borders inside, and with Afghanistan to attract the efforts of all interested parties.
The problems of the border guard in the Republic of Tajikistan are well known (as evidenced at least by the events at the Dostuk outpost). But it is already too expensive for Russia to stand alone against threats in Central Asia, with an almost heated conflict in Ukraine behind it.
Events in Belarus began last year with the provocation of the arrest of the so-called "Wagnerites". The neighbors are known. And their role has already been voiced and proven. And attempts to disown the interference look extremely unconvincing.
Subsequently, attempts to change the regime using the technologies of the “Rose Revolution”, “Maidan” and the brilliant Madame Tikhanovskaya failed and there was already a story about the physical elimination of the president's family. Intelligence ears are visible to the naked eye, but ignored by the partners of our elites.
The reasons for the conflict in Belarus again lie in the plane of the US interests to contain Russia: to have another hot conflict on the border of Russia (Zbigniew Brzezinski. "The Grand Chessboard"). The prospect of this conflict is ambiguous for us.
Or, if the regime is changed in an unconstitutional way, the opposition will come to power, hostile to Russia, which will merge with Poland. Or the Lukashenka regime will survive and enter Russia with the rights of autonomy. It is high time to admit that, as a project, Belarus alone does not have the ability to resist the collective West.
And Ukrainian kost
I voiced three points of threats on the map. I will move on to the fourth - Ukraine. Whose conflict on the Russian border is currently being discussed everywhere and by everyone. But threats that have a long-term perspective and are not visible to the layman are, as a rule, disguised as various benefits for everything progressive.
Everyone knows that the US budget has some sums with infinite zeros at the end for counteraction with Russia in all areas - a kind of cash, or on the move - kost. An abstract thesis, it would seem ... But not everything is so unambiguous and simple.
The active phase of opposition to Russia is likely to come in the summer and autumn before the elections, when a stream of money will be injected into the opposition activities of various NGOs with specific tasks to discredit the current elites and the authorities.
Although the start was given back in January with a pathetic attempt to intercept the summons by the notorious "Berlin patient".
The imposition of information occurs with a certain news submission of some facts (not subsequently confirmed) on various topics. Search engines, competing with each other, strongly recommend viewing information with a tinge of opposition and to create a feeling of dissatisfaction in your life.
As I understand it, in this way, a preparatory phase is being developed to identify and configure your protest audience to manage the crisis. The change in the consciousness of society in the information network has already taken place. And we must admit that our elites slept through it.
The real control of society has been lost (turn to the events in Belarus) by the state. And the agenda (emotions, moods) today is already controlled by various bloggers and tiktokers who easily agree to distort facts about events for money, thereby creating the necessary associations for their audience.
Truthful facts are of no interest to anyone today. And all information networks are sharpened for stuffing - emotions - time. The state does not have time to respond to denials. I would call it information aggression or a new term - mental warfare.
Mental warfare is when the family, the church, история, education, morality, values, etc. But at the forefront of this attack is our young generation (our future), who receive information from this non-professional content.
What our generation will be, so will Russia. Only one generation will pass and Russia may already be different.
"We will stand!" Unwritten script
Given the presence of these threats, imagine a scenario for the development of the situation for the period summer - autumn 2021:
- America conscientiously uses the allocated funding to contain Russia and blows up Central Asia. Russia is trying to extinguish the flames of war.
- Ukraine is moving to its part of the Plan and embarking on an active phase of the conflict in the DPR and LPR. Russia is actively opposing at all levels.
- Turkey, after weighing the facts, begins to implement its Plan to expand its influence and ignites the North Caucasus in a new way through provocations and various secret operations. Where will Russia be?
- The Belarusian opposition, trying to take revenge, is arranging its demarche to change the regime. Where will Russia be?
- In Moscow at this time, through foreign agents of influence, protesters, young and crazy provocateurs are being brought out to the streets under the flag of the fight against corruption - active actions of Russian law enforcement agencies.
The curtain is closing. And the collective West applauds in unison.
These threats and the prospects for events for the summer-fall of 2021 are very, very vague. And, of course, they depend on the wishes of the world's chief conductor.
The only hope remains that the funds allocated for containment will not reach the final goal and will be taken away (like ours), and Russia will have another whole year for its development.
The power structures of Russia at the last moment, within the framework of the exercise of their powers, will develop new measures to counter these threats, and we will stand firm again.
Instead of an epilogue. Mental war
The goal of mental warfare is:
Destruction of self-awareness and change of the mental - civilizational - basis of the enemy's society.
And if during and after the war it is possible to recover losses with the use of conventional, including nuclear, weapons, then after the change [evolution] of the people's self-consciousness, it is too late to “drink Borjomi” after one generation.
What to do with this Western mental war?
Civilian "Lieutenant General" Andrei Ilnitsky named the following for Russia priority tasks to counter the West in this mental war:
- Training of personnel for information counteraction against the West in all spheres.
- Intensification of work with youth.
- Renewal of a broad dialogue with the conservative majority of Russian citizens.