Military Review

"Russia will win" - the US press describes a variant of the provocation of the war by Kiev

31

Servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the JFO zone



The drop in the rating of the head of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, pushes him to make hasty and risky decisions, as well as to act as a provocateur of military actions against the country that has already “taken away vast territories”. Naturally, Kiev counts and hopes for the help of the West in its struggle to "de-occupy" Crimea and Donbass. In this case, Ukraine has ghostly, but still positive chances of success in the designated case. However, the situation radically changes and turns upside down if Kiev is the aggressor and initiator. American columnist Ivanka Barzashka writes about this in an article for The Washington Post.

Scenarios for the development of the situation


As the author writes, a team of several international experts considered more than ten scenarios of a direct clash between Russia and Ukraine, as well as the further development of the situation. As a result, the probable results obtained confirm the natural victory of Moscow over Kiev, this is especially characteristic of cases when the conflict begins due to the provocations of the latter.

To briefly describe the opinions of experts, in the event of an attack by the Russian Federation, Ukraine has a chance to receive moral support from the West and lose. In the opposite situation, Kiev will not be able to count even on this minuscule in relations with partners in the United States and Europe.



The logic of the experts is simple: having received assurances of support at all possible levels, Kiev is actively provoking a war, but when it starts, Washington and Brussels will only make political gestures to provide assistance, and express concern, nothing more. And Ukraine will not stand alone. This is exactly what the “confidence” trap looks like for Kiev, into which Zelensky falls deeper and deeper in his pursuit of ratings.

The containment dilemma


The US press is literally trying to "reach out" to Kiev with a warning that excessive self-confidence will lead to unjustified risks and consequences. "Lulling" by the West to a sober assessment of the situation for Ukraine will result in an unequivocal victory for Moscow, which is predicted in all scenarios for the development of a direct conflict between Ukraine and Russia.

As a result, it turns out that between Ukraine and the collective West there was a defocusing of understanding, especially of such an important point as the meaning of the often repeated phrase "support for sovereignty." There is a theoretical and political interpretation of this term, state and regime. And there is a practical filling with the meaning and action of this statement. In a way, a "containment dilemma" arises, confusing the cards of Ukraine and the West, while simultaneously unleashing the hands of the Russian Federation.

In any case, Kiev needs to listen to the scenarios developed by experts for the development of the situation during an open confrontation with the Russian Federation. All of them are not in favor of Kiev, sums up the American columnist.
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  1. Doccor18
    Doccor18 17 May 2021 07: 17
    +17
    ... that Kiev is counting on and hoping for help from the West in its struggle to "de-occupy" Crimea and Donbass. In this case, Ukraine has ghostly, but still positive chances of success ...

    She has no chance of success. And overseas they understand this much more clearly than even in Kiev. Therefore, it will not come to war, because then the democrats will lose their most important trophy (Ukraine), and this does not make sense. You need a constant state of tension, the expectation of a conflict, but not the war itself ...
    1. 210ox
      210ox 17 May 2021 07: 26
      +7
      Kiev's strategy is to constantly maintain tensions between the West and Russia. Perhaps we will overstrain. Economically and politically.
      1. Peak
        Peak 17 May 2021 07: 38
        +8
        Quote: 210ox
        Kiev's strategy is to constantly maintain tensions between the West and Russia.

        In Ukraine, chtol, have you seen a strategic player ???
        Maybe it's a strategy after all. West , obediently and thoughtlessly implemented by Ukraine?
        1. 210ox
          210ox 17 May 2021 07: 56
          +4
          I agree. But Kiev brings its own part to this strategy, which looks more like masochism.
          1. Peak
            Peak 17 May 2021 08: 02
            +3
            Quote: 210ox
            I agree. But Kiev brings its own part to this strategy, which looks more like masochism.

            This is not masochism.
            Movement of a weak-willed organism somewhat delayed in reflexes, with complete atrophy of its own brain, controlled by impulses-commands from the outside.
            1. Vladimir Mashkov
              Vladimir Mashkov 17 May 2021 19: 30
              -1
              The article is rather muddy and difficult to chew. But the meaning is crystal clear: when any variants Russia defeats Ukraine. Everything seems to be clear: there will be no war!
              But I would not be in a hurry, "it is not evening yet" and not August, SP-2 has not yet been completed and launched! Who knows these frostbitten State Department officials and what they are capable of!
          2. Shiva83483
            Shiva83483 17 May 2021 21: 55
            0
            and you ask, otkel took this very masochist-founder of the movement of masochists
      2. Finches
        Finches 17 May 2021 08: 11
        +4
        This is Washington's strategy, and no one asks Kiev ... Ukraine looks like a little evil dog that was bitten by an encephalitis tick (nationalism), which caused it to contract rabies. The owners put her on a chain, where she comes out barking and splashing poisonous saliva, but if she breaks, then she will need to be shot, out of harm's way!
  2. Don karleone
    Don karleone 17 May 2021 07: 18
    +2
    Russia will win !!!! And you, you were counting on something else. Are you sick?
  3. Peak
    Peak 17 May 2021 07: 20
    +5
    To briefly describe the opinions of experts, in the event of an attack by the Russian Federation, Ukraine has a chance to receive moral support from the West and lose.

    The American newspaper (edition) had nothing to "plug" the information gap for the release of the material, and published an obvious fact to everyone?
    1. nnm
      nnm 17 May 2021 07: 41
      +4
      This is not just an article, it is a description of the results of the "war games" conducted by experts from King's College London, the British Defense Academy and Livermore National Laboratory, incl. with the participation of former Deputy Defense Ministers of the United States.
      1. Peak
        Peak 17 May 2021 07: 45
        +2
        Quote: nnm
        This is not just an article, it is a description of the results of the "war games" conducted by experts from King's College London, the British Defense Academy and Livermore National Laboratory, incl. with the participation of former Deputy Defense Ministers of the United States.

        Тогда ...
        - It's been a long time since I took checkers in my hands! - said Chichikov


        Apparently the experts had nothing else to do, so they "played the game" Russia-Ukraine, with the notoriously known result - It doesn't matter who starts ("white" or "black"), but Russia wins the game.
        1. nnm
          nnm 17 May 2021 07: 47
          +4
          Translation of the original source, actually:
          https://inosmi.ru/politic/20210517/249727011.html
          Apparently, they did not calculate the result, but the number of losses on both sides and came to the conclusion that even playing with someone else's yellow-blue pieces was not worth it.
  4. Thrifty
    Thrifty 17 May 2021 07: 23
    +2
    Zelensky Zero, in order to survive, says and does only what is allowed or ordered. Even the alcoholic who panned in front of him in the ue-roine, and he did not dare to go to war against Russia, because in his drunken brain there was only one thought - how not to become a junk, no matter who exactly liquidated him. And Zelensky is not even allowed to think, only to do what the sponsors of the Maidan tell him to do. ..
    1. Egoza
      Egoza 17 May 2021 08: 12
      +1
      Quote: Thrifty
      Even the alcoholic who panned in front of him in the ue-roine, and he did not dare to go to war against Russia,

      You're wrong! It was Petya and his comrades who launched the massacre in Donbass and declared it at war with Russia.
  5. Yaro Polk
    Yaro Polk 17 May 2021 07: 48
    +2
    Attacking bastards all sorts, always get in the face.
  6. markant1970
    markant1970 17 May 2021 07: 55
    -4
    In April, Ze's rating, according to KIIS, even rose to 31%.
    Victory, yes, but the price of the issue ... Probably will be more than over Georgia
    1. nnm
      nnm 17 May 2021 08: 08
      +4
      The one who pays for the rating is the one who dances.
      1. markant1970
        markant1970 17 May 2021 11: 18
        -4
        Here I agree with you, KIIS "tarnished" its reputation with the "order" from Medvedchuk
        1. nnm
          nnm 17 May 2021 12: 11
          +2
          Yes, there, that the KIIS, that the Razumkov Center and so on in the presidential elections showed themselves "excellent". Not to mention the elections to local councils - no matter how they stretch Smeshko's numbers - nothing happens. And the same Sharia, who went into the mass of advice point-blank, is not noticed.
    2. boris epstein
      boris epstein 17 May 2021 16: 20
      0
      Russia does not strive for war, but attempts to reason with diplomacy do not lead to success. Whose side is the issue price? No one will go to Ukraine without a preliminary missile strike on command and communications posts, warehouses, groupings of the Armed Forces, anti-missile and air defense. Not 2008. Georgia got off easy yet.
      1. markant1970
        markant1970 17 May 2021 18: 16
        -3
        Don't be ridiculous. Learn folk wisdom about paper and ravines
  7. abrakadabre
    abrakadabre 17 May 2021 07: 59
    +3
    The fall in the rating of the head of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, pushes him to make hasty and risky decisions
    It's already funny. You might think that ZE influences something there personally. There, and without this clown, there is someone to make decisions. Mostly at the US Embassy.
  8. Daniil Konovalenko
    Daniil Konovalenko 17 May 2021 08: 01
    +6
    Those who remember the war do not dream of war.
  9. Revolver
    Revolver 17 May 2021 08: 09
    +1
    Trump would definitely not get involved, and you never know about Sleepy Joe Biden. He doesn't even manage his sphincters, much less foreign policy. And at what point for what thread the puppeteers will pull him, hell knows.
  10. rocket757
    rocket757 17 May 2021 08: 31
    +2
    The one for whom she thought works listens and draws the right conclusions ...
    no, not that case.
    1. Alexander 3
      Alexander 3 17 May 2021 08: 41
      +2
      I agree, but civilians of Donbass continue to die. How hard it is to hear from them that they are used to this. By firing a shell at the front-line territory, the Banderlog can kill residents at any moment.
      1. rocket757
        rocket757 17 May 2021 09: 08
        +1
        Political "games" around the bush.
        To talk / reason on this topic .... we do not decide anything, but who can decide, go and understand what they are not thinking about, not deciding ???
  11. zenion
    zenion 17 May 2021 17: 49
    0
    And Ukraine can again come to an agreement with the Tatars and Turks and hit through the anus. Captured from Ukrainian villages will again be sold in Turkestan and thus there will be no debts. And they will rest, as is always customary, beyond the Danube.
  12. Gennady Fomkin
    Gennady Fomkin 17 May 2021 20: 16
    0
    https://www.chathamhouse.org/2021/05/myths-and-misconceptions-debate-russia/summary.Рекомендации британского Королевского института международных отношений, как душить Россию
    I'll try even shorter: laughing

    First principles: understanding relationships
    Liberasts were kicked out of power, and this is for a long time.

    Communication with the leaders of Russia
    There are many Putin's!

    Support for Eastern Europe and the post-Soviet space
    Shit through these.

    International security
    To keep the line, as the great Hitler bequeathed.

    Russia and China
    It's scary here.

    Sanctions
    Our last bullets, don't shoot in vain. 

    Business community and economy of Russia
    Hit your own and lie as you can.

    Addressing Western Errors
    Blame Russia for your sins and pay us more, we are good at this. PS (Among the authors - Nikolai Petrov, professor at the Higher School of Economics.)
  13. Algorithms of Truth
    Algorithms of Truth 18 May 2021 08: 58
    0
    The states and the EU cannot be trusted even at the level of any statements - these formations have been enemies of Russia from time immemorial ... they have remained with them.