Military Review

Afghanistan: where to go for the American military


Photo: isafmedia,

I have written many times that it is not in the tradition of the United States to fight on its own. Well, the Americans cannot win alone. Even with all the power and equipment of their army, the American units either get stuck in battles and go into deep defense, or simply stupidly destroy everything and everyone with the help of aviation and artillery. But even in this case, one can speak of victory only as a temporary state of military confrontation.

We remember how pompously the Americans announced an agreement with the Taliban (banned in the Russian Federation) on the cessation of hostilities and on the subsequent withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan.

For ordinary people, a wonderful legend was invented about the peacefulness of the American army and the unwillingness of the United States to shed the blood of Afghans. In fact, the long-term war led to the fact that the US army was simply locked at its bases and practically did not conduct military operations.

Declare defeat a victory, and then we'll see

The decision to withdraw American units was taken out of necessity. The army has ceased to fulfill the role that was planned at the Pentagon. In fact, American soldiers were trapped. This is how the world perceived these agreements. New version of the movie "Saving Private Ryan".

Someone spoke directly about the forced evacuation of units. Someone played along with American politicians and declared that the United States is striving for peace in Afghanistan. But everyone had an understanding of the situation.

Let me remind you that the withdrawal of troops was to be completed on May 1 this year. Together with the Americans, all their NATO allies were to leave Afghanistan. But the deadline has passed, and the units have not been withdrawn.

Now the Pentagon has announced the next date for the withdrawal of the last American soldier from Afghanistan - September 11, 2021. On the 20th anniversary of the tragic events of 2001, when a terrorist strike was inflicted on the United States.

The Americans are negotiating with the Taliban through all channels (banned in the Russian Federation), persuading the leaders of the Mujahideen not to start hostilities, which look quite logical after the Americans violated the agreements. Wasn't it easier to just do what we agreed on? But Washington is at risk. Risking the lives of American soldiers and officers.

The fact is that Afghanistan was supposed to become a certain base for the United States from which it could influence the situation in Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Pakistan, and Iran. And in the entire Central Asian region as a whole.

Simply put, it would be possible to maintain tension on the southern borders of Russia and China using the wrong hands. By feeding certain forces in neighboring states, the Americans would have retained leverage over the situation in these countries, right up to the organization of coups d'état.

So, wherever you throw it, there is a wedge everywhere. The military contingent must be withdrawn, otherwise the Taliban will start such a massacre that the United States will howl. And carpet bombing and all sorts of technical innovations will not help here. Yes, the losses among the Afghans will increase, but the American army will not even dare to stick its nose out of the fortified areas.

And without military bases in this country, the United States is losing a foothold from which it is convenient to "throw fireballs" to the opposition forces of Russia in neighboring states. And thus keep Moscow in suspense.

Where to go, where to go

The situation is clear not only to the Russian or Chinese military. Articles in the American press are indicative in this vein. Here is one quote from the material published in The Wall Street Journal. Moreover, journalists refer to sources in the American military department.

Typically, such articles are in the nature of an "accidental leak" from the headquarters of the American army. But more often it is the fruit of the analysis of the situation by American military experts. In this case, in my opinion, The Wall Street Journal published quite competent reasoning on an important topic for the Pentagon.

"The options under consideration, according to US government and military officials, range from nearby countries to the more distant Gulf States and US Navy ships at sea ... Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, which border Afghanistan, are preferred for quick access."

It's hard enough to say more specifically. We need bases in those states from which it would be possible to strike quickly on the territory of Afghanistan without endangering our own military. Arrived, bombed and flew away. Great version of the American-style war. And rolling the troops from place to place is an expensive pleasure.

“The concentration of the US Armed Forces formations near the Afghan borders will allow the Pentagon to provide operational military support to Kabul, strike at the Taliban (banned in the Russian Federation. - Author's note) and respond to possible attacks by militants on the American embassy. The Central Asian countries are viewed by the US authorities as the most convenient footholds for such tasks. "

Now someone is thinking about the stupidity of such plans. Which Uzbekistan, which Tajikistan? Who is waiting for the Americans there? Alas, we tend to forget historical events. Even those that happened in our memory. I will quote again. But now from our RT. From the material of Alexey Zakvasin and Elizaveta Komarova:

“Recall that after the start of Operation Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan in September 2001, the American army used some military infrastructure in Central Asia.
So, from 2001 to 2005, the United States operated the Uzbek airbase Karshi-Khanabad, from 2001 to 2002 - the Tajik airfield Aini, and from 2001 to 2014 - the Manas airport located in Kyrgyzstan. "

So the Americans remain true to tradition in their actions. They will not invent something new against the barbarians (oh, as this expression of one of Hitler's generals reminds me). Central Asia and the former Soviet republics. The rest of the states, to one degree or another, have already suffered from friendship with the United States or are practically subject to Washington.

Will it be possible to deceive the governments of the republics again?

Probably, some of our readers were surprised by the presence of the President of Tajikistan Emomali Rahmon at the Victory Parade. Indeed, the Tajik president is a rather rare guest at such celebrations. First of all, because in Tajikistan itself, Victory Day is as great a holiday as in Russia. But this year Emomali Rahmon was in Moscow. This is the lot of presidents. Work comes first.

I think that after all the festive events, the Russian and Tajik presidents talked one-on-one, including about the proposals of the Americans. There is no information in open sources about any proposal of the Americans in Dushanbe. But according to some indirect signs, we can already talk about the search by American diplomats for an approach to President Rahmon.

Why did the Tajik president come to Moscow after all? The point is that, unlike Tashkent, Tajikistan is a member of the CSTO. According to the agreement, all members of this organization are obliged to coordinate this with all members of the CSTO when deciding on the deployment of any foreign military organizations and bases. Emamoli Rahmon wants a clear answer to the question of the American presence. There are options. Or Russia will be categorically against it.

Uzbekistan is also absolutely not ready to exchange good relations with Russia for dubious “American pies”. The strategic partnership policy suits everyone quite well. On the one hand, Tashkent is pursuing an independent policy, and on the other, Russia is helping the country to implement a fairly large number of projects.

In addition, the 201st base of the Russian army plays a rather significant role in "shaping the international climate" in this region. This base not only controls the most important routes from Afghanistan to the north, but it also reconciles the most militant local activists and fighters for something there. I recall the words of the Minister of Defense of Russia Sergei Shoigu, said by him during a recent visit to Tajikistan:

“Taking this into account, we provide support to the Tajik side. We pay special attention to bilateral cooperation in the field of defense, as well as the functioning of the 201st Russian military base. "

It seems to me that this time it will be very difficult to find a place for a new base. First of all, because Russia will no longer turn a blind eye to separate negotiations between the Americans and their allies and partners. There is a direct danger that Moscow will take harsh measures and shake hands. And given the balance of power that exists in the world today, the Americans do not need it at all.

There is one more factor that few people remember today. The time when Russia has weakened its attention to the Central Asian regions is characterized not only by the formation of nation-states, but also by bloody events in both Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Here is what the orientalist Andrei Areshev told RT correspondents about this:

“The experience of the 2000s has clearly shown that the American military presence leads to a degradation of the situation both in the host country and in the region as a whole. For Uzbekistan, for example, this turned into bloody events in Andijan in 2005, which Islam Karimov perceived as an anti-government rebellion. "

Summary of the situation

Nobody disputes the importance of Central Asia for Russia. The region is located in the center of Asia, which means that whoever controls this region has the ability to influence all countries to one degree or another. Therefore, all means will be used to establish this control.

Will Russia be able to neutralize US plans? I would like to confidently say yes. But the East is a delicate matter, as the movie hero, beloved by many generations of Russians, said. Of course, there are many factors that speak for a positive response. Only, as it sometimes happens in the East, at the last moment it can happen that all forecasts go to hell.

And then we will hear more tales from across the ocean that the Americans in Central Asia are not against Russia or China in any way. That all this is against international terrorism and the Taliban (banned in the Russian Federation) in Afghanistan. And then we will see new units of the Russian and Chinese armies, which for some reason decided to locate nearby the PRC and the Russian Federation.

I just want to hope that the leaders of the Central Asian countries remember the recent history of their own states. They remember the blood and tears that were shed there recently.
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  1. Vladimir_2U
    Vladimir_2U 14 May 2021 04: 45
    “The experience of the 2000s has clearly shown that the American military presence leads to a degradation of the situation both in the host country and in the region as a whole.

    Interesting action analysis, thanks.
    1. Peak
      Peak 14 May 2021 08: 05
      Will it be possible to deceive the governments of the republics again?

      Ay, wah! Why, hear, such words of AbidnA gavarish?

      Why - "cheat"? Buy yes ...

      "At the wizard Bidenmana, everything is for real, everything is without cheating"

      East, bazaar. Everything is sold and everything is bought.
      1. Mikhail3
        Mikhail3 18 May 2021 09: 04
        Well yes. Conversation? We'll have to pay byes. And not just once, but all the time, every month. This is the specificity of the "victories" in the American, capitalist way. Is the American presence destabilizing the situation? Well, still!
        The Americans buy "victory" from the natives' top, establish their base and make an airfield. The natives, seeing such a thing, inflate the price - the "American friends" now have nowhere to go, right? The burden on the budget is growing, the "authority" (well, what authority does a plucked goose have, right to say)) is falling. What to do?
        The Americans arrange a couple of coups d'etat among the natives, and feed the "opposition", that is, the beys who do not want to break through to power, but want to. Instead of a country, albeit a poor one, but slowly working and growing, the result is a territory at war with itself. Now the authorities of this territory have no choice but to agree to much smaller payments, and even to receive most of them with weapons and equipment. Otherwise they will be cut out. Profit!
        Such is the American aid to the whole world - turning country after country into a hotbed of civil war. It's funny how multi-colored bai, leaders, rulers and presidents, one after another, take this bait. Everyone considers himself the most cunning. Thinks he can grab and run away. Others are gone, and those are far away, and with a bare ass ... This world has no prospects. None.
        1. Peak
          Peak 19 May 2021 06: 31
          Quote: Mikhail3
          We'll have to pay byes. And not just once, but all the time, every month. This is the specificity of "victories" in the American way, in the capitalist way.

          And the specifics of the East yes
          "East is a delicate matter"
          1. Mikhail3
            Mikhail3 19 May 2021 08: 44
            Well, that's why the Eastern people accepted the USSR with enthusiasm. Well, excluding the class enemy. They themselves know better than anyone else what a rotten dead end their order really is. And what was the disappointment in the East, when the bureaucratic scum in the USSR began to return all this abomination ...
  2. Artemion3
    Artemion3 14 May 2021 05: 37
    Yes, there was a time when the USSR saw Americans in Afghanistan in a nightmare, now they are leaving
    1. Boris55
      Boris55 14 May 2021 08: 35
      Quote: Artemion3
      now they leave there

      They don't go away. They are giving way to their irregular army of terrorists - the Taliban and other illegal groups. Openly go to war in Central Asia and create tension for Russia and China, they do not dare, but send their scumbags - easily.
      1. Alexey RA
        Alexey RA 14 May 2021 16: 16
        Quote: Boris55
        They don't go away. They are giving way to their irregular army of terrorists - the Taliban and other illegal groups.

        The Taliban are 146% a Pakistani project. And Pakistan, after the US leaves, will again be China's ally.
        1. Mikhail3
          Mikhail3 18 May 2021 09: 11
          The Taliban were once Taliban, yes. And someone's project. And now these are gangs of drug dealers and bandits who will more or less fulfill the will of the one who brought them another batch of money and weapons.
          The USA threw the USSR out of Afghanistan by the hands of one man. In his hands were just $ 2 billion and that's it. True, the money was completely and completely uncontrolled, how he spent it, no one asked him, if only the task was carried out.
          No one and nothing can prevent the United States from doing the same trick again, although the money will already need 5-6 billions. So what? For the United States, this is a trifle. only an idea can resist such tactics. Since the USSR just at the time of Afghanistan lost its Idea, exchanged it for feeding the bosses, we were defeated. Now we have no Idea at all. This means that victory is impossible.
    2. atakan
      atakan 15 May 2021 02: 51
      - Well, another poppy crop !!?
      - Well, two more crops and that's it ..
  3. andrewkor
    andrewkor 14 May 2021 05: 46
    Uzbekistan has already unambiguously sent the Yankees through the forest, saying that the country's defensive doctrine does not provide for the presence of foreign troops on its territory!
    1. Nazar
      Nazar 14 May 2021 07: 56
      andrewkor - It is well understood in Uzbekistan that if the Americans are allowed in, Uzbekistan will be constantly attacked by the Taliban. And without the Americans, in general, there is a chance to negotiate with the Taliban about some kind of neutrality.
  4. Ravik
    Ravik 14 May 2021 05: 58
    The next FINAL withdrawal deadline is Christmas ...
    1. novel66
      novel66 14 May 2021 07: 44
      what year, I'm embarrassed?
  5. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 14 May 2021 06: 32
    where to go to the American military
    With all my "heart" would show them the way, but the moderators may not understand correctly. Name at least one state in the world to which the American military has brought peace and happiness by coming to build "democracy"? There are none other than Poland and the Baltics, who themselves beckon the Americans and look into the mouth of American politics. So they are not bombed.
    1. novel66
      novel66 14 May 2021 07: 45
      So they are not bombed.

      so it’s for now ... but who knows
    2. Petrik66
      Petrik66 14 May 2021 09: 33
      Until they are bombed.
  6. Humpty
    Humpty 14 May 2021 06: 58
    With respect to the author of the article, I cannot help but notice strange gaps in the coverage of events. The recent border conflict is completely invisible. Admire the piano in the bushes:
  7. Shiden
    Shiden 14 May 2021 07: 15
    The author, I would like to know, and you can write an analysis of how the situation will develop after the withdrawal of the Americans. And then after the withdrawal of the USSR troops, peace in Afghanistan did not come, but the former republics of Central Asia on the border in the 90s were notoriously shocked. In my opinion, it is time for China, Russia and Iran to prepare big money so as not to have problems at their borders.
    1. domokl
      14 May 2021 09: 26
      Quote: Shiden
      how the situation will develop after the withdrawal of the Americans.

      Why write an analysis. One word is enough - Taliban. The Taliban will rule in Kabul and the surrounding area, and local leaders will rule in the provinces. Central authority in Afghanistan has never been strong
  8. nikvic46
    nikvic46 14 May 2021 08: 34
    Although Russia does not have a border with Afghanistan, the problems have not diminished. The time when our country provided transit for US aircraft to Afghanistan fell into the summer. And the Central Asian republics (which I am the countries) have already become different. One way is to Pakistan.
    1. dauria
      dauria 14 May 2021 09: 14
      One way is to Pakistan.

      In Pakistan, China is more likely to be "registered". It is also possible that he feeds the Taliban in Afghanistan. He does not really need American strategists in Bagram and Kandahar. And the same Shindant is a thorn in Iran. ...
    2. alexey sidykin
      alexey sidykin 29 May 2021 10: 02
      Pakistan has already said that amers are not expected
  9. Parvis rasulov
    Parvis rasulov 14 May 2021 12: 23
    Here the author is mistaken in Tajikistan for half a year in Kulyab, the Americans were more precise at the Kulyab airport used as an airfield for jumping and refueling petroleum products. In the same Kulyab, in 1997-2003, there was an Indian hospital where the fighters of the Northern Alliance Ahmadshah Masud were treated. And in 2003, a company of the foreign Legion of France was stationed in Dushanbe for a year. And so to understand the situation about the Taliban, here it is necessary to take into account that until 2001 the Northern Alliance successfully fought against the Taliban in Afghanistan and Russia, Iran and China helped them in this very well. Finally, the death of Ahmadshah Massoud was beneficial only to the Americans, no one else, since it was Ahmadshah who told the Americans that you want to help give weapons and money, but don't go here. Now in Afghanistan there is no Northern Alliance and many former fighters of the Northern Alliance are fighting on the side of the Taliban, and this is a fact. When the new Afghan army was created, its main backbone consisted of the fighters of the Northern Alliance, the Americans then quietly dispersed them and many of the Northern fighters went to the Taliban, and after that the Taliban appeared in Badakhshan, and areas where the Northern Alliance previously dominated. Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan will not agree to the US proposal, but who can agree is Kyrgyzstan
  10. dimaibnhatab
    dimaibnhatab 14 May 2021 19: 47
    Perhaps the Kyrgyz will launch amers. Look how many times they sold their airfield. Manas. They are no stranger
  11. Valentin Tveryakov
    Valentin Tveryakov 16 May 2021 09: 22
    The best place for reforging American troops is to protect the Siberian taiga from arsonists and lumberjacks! Forests will be restored, the air on the ground will be cleaner, and this is not ensuring the growth of poppies! The benefits are obvious, and if they still understand the Russian soul, then peace on earth will come.
  12. alexey sidykin
    alexey sidykin 29 May 2021 10: 01
    Do not forget about the Taliban, they have already warned that those who have housed the Americans will become targets.
  13. Vyacheslav34
    Vyacheslav34 29 May 2021 13: 21
    So they stopped in Afghanistan only because there are poppy fields and deshovy hashish as soon as the marines began to die for hashish so immediately Afghanistan became unnecessary for us. Only drugs they needed there, everything else is candy wrappers.
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