Military Review

Russia without SWIFT: isn't it scary?

82
Russia without SWIFT: isn't it scary?

I do not see the enemy



In an economic war, perhaps the main thing is to identify a real enemy. Yes, Russia, as non-communist for three decades now, remains a geopolitical and ideological opponent of the West. But economically and financially, she has integrated too much with him since then.

So much so that real military action loses all meaning. If in ordinary wars there may still be some benefits for someone, then everyone loses from the rupture of economic ties. And moreover at once. That is why, and not at all because the international payment system SWIFT is, in fact, a private shop, disconnecting Russia from it is very beneficial for few people.

However, the most negative scenario still cannot be ruled out. It is no coincidence that the representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova, emphasized that the government is preparing for a possible disconnection of Russia from the international payment system SWIFT.


Source: council.gov.ru

Is it worth it to overestimate the PACE declarations, which require not only to disconnect Russia from the SWIFT payment system, but also to freeze the European assets of representatives of the Russian authorities and oligarchs? Or such a terrible thing - to prohibit them from entering the territory of the EU countries.

And the most radical measure is to stop the import of oil and gas from the Russian Federation. It seems that on the eve of global warming, someone really wants to freeze? But Russia, disconnected from SWIFT, can, after all, take advantage of such a nuance - referring to force majeure, refuse to pay its obligations to foreign creditors.

Scarecrows on the topic of "turning off Russia" have been in use for a very long time - not even since the Crimean spring, but somewhere since the first "orange revolution" in Ukraine and the compulsion to peace in Georgia. However, then the SWIFT system was not yet such a powerful monopolist as it is now.

Why didn't anyone get scared


But then the SWIFT system did not have any real alternatives, which have recently been growing like mushrooms. Even the countries that quite realistically "unfastened" from SWIFT - North Korea and Iran - are provided with the means of payment, although not without the help of China and India.


Yes, and without the Europeans, as in the case of Iran, it also could not do. The payback for SWIFT for Iran and the DPRK was very tough. The economy has sagged, the standard of living has fallen, which is already low. But these countries are, in fact, self-sufficient to the envy, like the USSR behind the Iron Curtain. But what about Russia?

It’s very difficult for her to do without international settlements. It seems to be ... But Russia has already managed to put a straw in the event of a divorce from SWIFT, although for some reason neither the business media nor representatives of the economic bloc in all branches of the federal government trumpet this.

Few people know that already in 2016, the Financial Messaging System (SPFS) was tested in Russia - an absolutely viable alternative to SWIFT. It has even been exploited - for almost five years now, albeit in a sparing mode. And she does not raise objections to any of the potential partners. It's just that as long as there is access to SWIFT, no one is in a hurry.

By the way, Russia managed to launch its own Mir system (under the threat of being cut off from Visa and Mastercard) in the same way. Yes, it failed for a long time, annoying users, but now it is quite competitive, helping, among other things, to do without full-fledged banking services for the same Crimeans. And along with them - and 500 thousand Russian citizens in Donbass.

Nothing personal, just PR


Today, quite convenient, although few recognized methods and means for carrying out and registering financial settlements, in fact, can simply provide at least the Internet.

After all, cryptocurrencies can be considered as an alternative. It is well known that they (after a short rollback) have risen in price for several years just at an insane pace. And they rise in price precisely because of the opposition to various kinds of monopoly. Including the SWIFT monopoly.

But at this stage in the development of our relations with the United States and the EU, the most important thing is, apparently, image games, but what is there to be ashamed of - also wars. And it only seems that the image of Russia as a potential aggressor and some new "evil empire" has already been formed.

The whole point here is only in one thing - in the primitive extraction of unplanned profits. Nord Stream 2? Yes, you build as much as you like, just not at our expense, but we will interfere, but also use it, because it is profitable. Exports of oil and grain - again, they are much more needed by the seller, that is, Russia, than by overly fed buyers.

How Russia can smooth out the negative, launched from the West, first of all, into neighboring countries "offended by us" is a big question. The usual bet on the Russian diaspora and on those who have not yet lost their memory is not enough. Games with SWIFT are also in many ways fashion-oriented. Because the audience of the XNUMXst century is too advanced.


Source: usembassy.gov

It is not for nothing that US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken (pictured) was so careful in his comments on the idea of ​​disconnecting Russia from SWIFT. And he insisted that it was a private company, and even with a long-term impeccable reputation:

“I don’t want to go into hypothetical questions about what we can do in the future. Let me just say that we will consider all reasonable options when it comes to trying to contain aggression. "

Blinken even had to admit that the United States would prefer to have more stable and predictable relations with Russia, however, in the end, everything depends on "the actions or lack of actions of the Russian Federation." According to him, if Russia "continues to take reckless or aggressive actions," the United States will respond, because such steps cannot go unpunished.

Are we going the other way?


Russia, having created Mir and SPFS, almost completely protected the domestic financial market - there is no doubt about that. Likewise, one should not be much afraid of new measures on Russian debt, although borrowing through intermediaries will cost a little more.

However, loans abroad are still usually more profitable than domestic ones. And just leaving the debt market is not profitable for us. The most serious difficulties await (in case of disconnection from SWIFT) Russian banks, although it is hardly worth worrying about them.

It must be remembered that our banking system operates in very specific conditions, when the largest government shares are very large, and the smaller ones work with foreign partners from time to time. Although a short-term shock cannot be ruled out in any case, as well as a longer-term rollback of the markets, and another fall in the national currency rate.

Well, the foreign banks present in Russia, or rather their branches and branches, simply work according to Russian rules, that is, with a much higher rate of return. At the same time, we have powerful financial support from the head structure behind our backs.

The common public may also have difficulties - for example, when paying for purchases or services abroad. The same online store or the "booking" known to all tourists - they cannot do without SWIFT. Although for the sake of the capacious Russian market, you can think of something else.


Source: Facebook, SWIFT Careers

A business focused on export-import will look for (and most likely have already found for a long time) ways and possibilities for settlements in ways other than through SWIFT. Of course, there may be serious problems in obtaining export foreign exchange earnings for Russia - for gas, for oil, or for the products of the military-industrial complex.

But here, again, the question is only in the time for which the mediators will be found. Competition between them will very quickly reduce all problems to a reasonable minimum of financial losses. The experience of many years of struggle against sanctions has shown that this is exactly how it will be, even under the most negative scenarios.

Let you get out


Experts are well aware that several banks from China, Turkey, Japan and European countries have already connected to the SPFS. The system is not used very actively, but quite successfully. Force majeure can stimulate dramatic growth in the development of alternative systems.

Banking experts note that the SPFS is not a semblance of a fire-prevention system in case of a financial war, but an analogue of a certain backup of the same SWIFT. It (SWIFT) can also be knocked out by the same hackers, and it is not at all necessary - the Russians.

Russia has almost squeezed out (and with the commissioning of Nord Stream 2, it will finally squeeze out) from the energy market such expensive and poorly predictable intermediaries as Ukraine or Poland, as well as the Baltic countries. Something similar may follow if we disconnect from SWIFT, although not immediately.

By striking Russia in such an extraordinary way, the United States will also strike Europe, which is very strongly integrated with Russia both economically and financially. Globalization, the interweaving of countries - this is the reality of the third millennium.

Therefore, the leaders of such an organization as SWIFT, I will repeat - private and with more than half a century history success, you should think very hard before clicking the "disable" button for the "Russia" folder. The advantage of such a client is not only the scale of transactions, but also the fact that there are not so many of them to be in great need of their prompt execution.
Author:
Photos used:
habr.com, allhurra.com, vtimes.io, aftenposten.no
82 comments
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  1. Finches
    Finches 14 May 2021 12: 16
    -2
    In theory, everything is possible, but Russia is not North Korea and Iran. Russia is the main donor of the European and Asian markets for hydrocarbons and other raw materials, grain ... Yes, and Russia's weight in the international arena is very significant! Biden, although he is a complete senile, will never go for it - this is political suicide for him and his party! But the scarecrow is interpretive to maintain the illusions of their mongrels, such as Ukraine, Poland, Georgia, the Baltic states ... When the US Secretary of State, during his visit to his eastern colony, was asked about disconnecting Russia from the system, he carried some kind of nonsense about the moral support of all the victims from the Russian "aggression", but did not give an answer!

    Loot in suitcases or what? laughing
    1. Uncle lee
      Uncle lee 14 May 2021 12: 25
      +10
      launch your own system "Mir"
      It functions normally, even on Aliexpress ...
    2. Monster_Fat
      Monster_Fat 14 May 2021 12: 43
      0
      I don’t understand one thing, when they write about SWIFT and the consequences of its shutdown, is it really still not clear that ALL Visa, MasterCard cards work through this system? Is it really difficult to understand that if SWIFT is turned off, then these cards of Russian holders will stop working? That is, they will not work in Russia and will not work abroad - you can simply throw them out. But there is another trick - how did you open an account - if you have an account with a linked card, then yes, you can continue to use this account, withdrawing money in another way, but if you initially opened an account for these cards, then the account will be blocked! The "World" map in the west does not work, from the word "in general", I now, I do not know with what kind of "other European countries", except China, and then, only on some trading platforms such as Aliexpress, such as there is an agreement on the service of these cards (can someone tell me?), especially since this card is nominated only in rubles. Moreover, the US establishment has warned that the disconnection from SWIFT will follow in a package with other comprehensive sanctions, of the same type as for Iran and North Korea. When they say that the Russian verification system somewhere out there in some bank in the west and east has been accepted for installation and use, I always refer to this warning, to the fact that sanctions on the Russian financial system will extend precisely towards servicing any of it. accounts. You can try to install as many of your verification systems as you want, but banks simply will not install these systems at home, they will not service your transactions, for fear of falling under sanctions, as accomplices of Russia, which is under economic and financial sanctions. We must clearly understand this. No "own" verification systems will help. All that will remain is "barter", and not on Russia's terms.
      1. Intruder
        Intruder 14 May 2021 13: 05
        -1
        I don’t understand one thing, when they write about SWIFT and the consequences of its shutdown, is it really still not clear that ALL Visa, MasterCard cards work through this system? Is it really difficult to understand that if SWIFT is turned off, then these cards of Russian holders will stop working? That is, they will not work in Russia and they will not work abroad - you can simply throw them out.
        That is, an ordinary client of a bank in the USA will not be able to transfer money to his relatives in the Russian Federation, from card to Visa card !? will have to do a bunch of left-handed operations with transactions, through exchangers in the network and drive their transfers through dubious organizations, in at least three countries, with risks ??? And if I need to pay for services in the Russian Federation, directly from a card in another country, for a communal apartment and Internet access to a Russian provider, I have a gateway from my parents, they call me and I over IP telephony, to a landline or mobile phone via a mobile network already in the Russian Federation .., Toda too - kirdyk, have you arrived ...?
        1. Monster_Fat
          Monster_Fat 14 May 2021 13: 11
          +7
          .... kirdyk, have you arrived ...?

          Exactly! Many do not understand what the disconnection from SWIFt will lead to for "simple" "physicists"! Everyone believes that this will affect only interstate payments and "legal entities"!
          1. Civil
            Civil 14 May 2021 14: 21
            +2
            The electorate will pay for everything, well, really, not the elite for sure)
          2. samarin1969
            samarin1969 14 May 2021 15: 29
            +4
            Quote: Monster_Fat
            Many do not understand what the disconnection from SWIFt will lead to for "simple" "physicists"!

            "Physicists" can buy cards from non-resident banks on the Internet. True, you will have to pay extra interest for the technology of replenishing these cards. But the “yuriks” will have a hard time. Moreover, for medium-sized businesses. Corporations will continue to drive dollars between St. Kitts & Navis and Cyprus. They will not really "arrive". But honest exporters-importers will overpay extra interest for transfer schemes and instead of 40 minutes "swift" will take longer for a curly scheme.
            ps Americans find it difficult to assess the risks of losing control over RF transactions. Otherwise, they would have let the Russian Federation go into "autonomous financial voyage" long ago. wassat And suddenly the "Moscow branch" will really separate from the "Chicago" ones. bully
            1. Captain Pushkin
              Captain Pushkin 15 May 2021 20: 34
              +6
              Quote: samarin1969
              "Physicists" can buy cards from non-resident banks on the Internet.

              "Physicists" today can transfer money from country to country with at least a dozen payment systems that are not tied to SWIFT. What I have been using for a long time.
          3. Intruder
            Intruder 14 May 2021 15: 35
            +1
            Many do not understand what the disconnection from SWIFt will lead to for "simple" "physicists"! Everyone believes that this will affect only interstate payments and "legal entities"!
            Honestly, here's to me personally on others ..., somehow with a large device .., my parents are important to me as long as they are both alive, and not other people's thoughts and their quality of life of these people ... but how there and where -that's there, everything is on the side, honestly !!! wink
      2. Cube123
        Cube123 14 May 2021 13: 49
        +1
        Quote: Monster_Fat
        I don’t understand one thing, when they write about SWIFT and the consequences of its shutdown, is it really still not clear that ALL Visa, MasterCard cards work through this system?

        You don’t understand that there are solid pluses for Russia. First of all, these cards work through US banks. Therefore, the United States will lose control over all financial transactions of Russian citizens. The export of foreign currency by Russian tourists will be reduced by several tens of billions of dollars annually. The United States will be deprived of card service fees. Plus, there is a huge flow of negativity from the population directed towards the West. Plus, a huge incentive for the development of domestic tourism. Plus, all financial transactions of "foreign agents" are put under control. Weighing all the pros and cons, in my opinion, the United States will lose many times more from this than Russia will lose. And switching to domestic payment cards is a matter of several days.
        1. Roman070280
          Roman070280 14 May 2021 14: 39
          -14%
          for Russia there are solid pluses from this.


          The "pluses" are the same as the fact that you can crush cheese with a bulldozer and then buy it at a store at a triple price.
          1. Cube123
            Cube123 14 May 2021 15: 11
            +5
            Quote: Roman070280
            "pluses" here are the same as from the fact that to crush cheese with a bulldozer

            Exactly! Because it is much cheaper and more profitable for the State to crush an illegal product than to fully certify it for its composition, origin and biosafety. The costs for the destruction of the goods are borne by a clever man who is trying to circumvent the RF Law. And if the goods are released, then the State will bear the costs for damage to the health of its own citizens.
            1. Roman070280
              Roman070280 14 May 2021 15: 35
              -5
              much cheaper and more profitable for the State

              The benefits of the state are of little use to me .. The damage from the disadvantages in the store is obvious ..

              The state will bear the costs of damaging the health of its own citizens.
              If I somehow bought the same product for 300 rubles without prejudice, which now comes out at 800, then I could also take care of my health for the difference in money ..
        2. Old shoe
          Old shoe 14 May 2021 17: 44
          +16
          Eck you have thrown some minuses! laughing Everyone worked BEFORE SWIFT, and will continue to work after it. Yes, not so convenient, yes, not so fast, but our life will definitely not stop without him. And, I assure you, there will be a replacement for him quickly. And MIR cards will work faster abroad - the "invisible hand of the market" will do its job. By the way, in Turkey, the WORLD is working with might and main - I know for sure - my acquaintances traveled and everything was without problems. And other countries, especially those with developed tourism, will quickly find their bearings - who wants to lose profit? So, there is no need to make a fetish out of an ordinary payment system - this is just a tool: it doesn't work - threw it away, took another one.
        3. Sergey M. Karasev
          Sergey M. Karasev 15 May 2021 10: 27
          -2
          Plus, all financial transactions of "foreign agents" are put under control.

          These will switch to crypt, if they have not already switched, and everything will be the same ..
          1. Cube123
            Cube123 17 May 2021 11: 56
            0
            Quote: Sergey Karasev
            Plus, all financial transactions of "foreign agents" are put under control.

            These will switch to crypt, if they have not already switched, and everything will be the same ..

            You can't live on a crypt in Russia. You still have to convert to fiat. This is where control comes in.

            https://www.finam.ru/
      3. From Tomsk
        From Tomsk 14 May 2021 14: 45
        +11
        The account was never tied to cards, what nonsense. The card is just "plastic". That is, if the payment system stops serving the card, you can still withdraw cash from the bank. The same applies to foreign currency accounts. Another question is that there will be huge queues at banks and big problems with cash, which will inevitably lead to hyperinflation. Well, the fact that the author of the article is a strong optimist, I agree))
      4. ANB
        ANB 14 May 2021 16: 30
        +6
        ... I don’t understand one thing, when they write about SWIFT and the consequences of its shutdown, is it really still not clear that ALL Visa, MasterCard cards work through this system? Is it really difficult to understand that if SWIFT is turned off, then these cards of Russian holders will stop working?

        Card systems and SWIFT are not connected in any way. And nothing will stop working. Russian banks conduct settlements with a visa and a master through the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. And the world in general is not tied in any way to international systems in the Russian Federation.
      5. _Maxius_
        _Maxius_ 14 May 2021 16: 41
        +7
        What nonsense are you writing. For physicists, there will be problems only with international translations. Inside the country, everything will go through SPFS and SBP. So the cards won't stop working. Do not panic.
      6. bk0010
        bk0010 14 May 2021 18: 24
        +1
        Quote: Monster_Fat
        , is it still not clear that ALL Visa, MasterCard cards work through this system?
        Why suddenly? SWIFT is too old and too primitive to be trusted with card transactions.
      7. nik39reg
        nik39reg 16 May 2021 01: 02
        +4
        The main thing is that you believe in it! And do not try to tell anyone, even on pain of death, that all VISA and MasterCard processing centers serving Russian cardholders are located in Russia. And therefore, information on cards, accounts, etc., necessary for transactions on these cards is located in Russia. God forbid you, find out that branches of foreign banks, for example, the same Raiffeisen, etc., operating in Russia, are connected only to the Russian processing center. It will probably be a discovery for you that MIR, VISA, MasterCard cards work through the same Russian processing centers. I will not explain everything further. The cards both worked within the country and will work. The only thing I can agree with is the difficulties of conducting transactions from abroad or abroad, as cards issued not in Russia cannot be serviced. Monster_Fat, are you so scared that you can't get the reward for the stuffing? Maybe the card was not received in Russia? You can minus!
      8. ammunition
        ammunition 21 May 2021 03: 27
        0
        Quote: Monster_Fat
        The "World" map in the west does not work, from the word "in general"

        And we never went there .. and we are not going to-))
    3. Anachoret
      Anachoret 14 May 2021 12: 44
      0
      The issue of disabling SWIFT is not relevant from the word "absolutely".
      Especially after the "Big Four" and their little brothers were cut off from feeding on the Russian audit market. Where, then, can we get statistics on the state of affairs in the enemy's economy?))
      If you disconnect Russia from SWIFT, the Russian economy will become "terra incognita" for them) and the Pentagon and others like them do not need it at all))

      And no one will load the euro in barrels in mutual settlements)
      1. Per se.
        Per se. 14 May 2021 13: 08
        +1
        Quote: Anchorite
        The issue of disabling SWIFT is not relevant from the word "absolutely".
        Almost like "disconnecting" the Central Bank of Russia from the IMF and FRS.
        1. Anachoret
          Anachoret 14 May 2021 16: 18
          +2
          Russia is a co-founder of the IMF, so this is the first time I hear about it being turned off from there. ))

          And the Fed? And here, in general, to third countries, except for the United States? )))

          Is your last name Zelensky?)))
          1. Per se.
            Per se. 15 May 2021 16: 14
            +1
            Quote: Anchorite
            Is your last name Zelensky?)))
            No, not Zelensky. About the IMF was from the category - "humor, irony, sarcasm", a Russian would understand that. Curiously, in turn, are you not working for the State Department in the network?

            About, -


            Quote: Anchorite
            And the Fed? And here, in general, to third countries, except for the United States? )))


            If you are applying for economic knowledge, you should know that in accordance with the Constitution of the Russian Federation (article 15, paragraph 4), the law on the Central Bank (Federal Law No. 86) and the Resolution of the Plenum of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation (No. 5 of October 10, 2003) The Central Bank of Russia is obliged to follow the instructions of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Our Elvira Nabiullina, not only the chairman of the Central Bank of Russia, but also officially, is the Deputy Governor from Russia at the IMF.

            As for the IMF, it has long been ruled by the Americans, the IMF is essentially a branch of the FRS. Such, here, humor ...
    4. Roman070280
      Roman070280 14 May 2021 14: 33
      -9
      And the weight of Russia in the international arena is very significant!

      You should also know how it is measured ..
      1. Grandfather
        Grandfather 14 May 2021 18: 59
        -1
        "experts" in the form of Zakharova and Blinkin are not impressive at all.
        1. dSK
          dSK 17 May 2021 00: 40
          -2
          The use of SWIFT is cheaper, and it will be until "the roast cock does not bite", then testing and adjustment of domestic software will begin ...
  2. Ren
    Ren 14 May 2021 12: 16
    +3
    When disconnecting from SWIFT, cash will be paid for oil, gas, grain. belay
    1. sergo1914
      sergo1914 14 May 2021 12: 30
      +1
      And only in rubles. In the coins of the Bank of Russia.
    2. Paragraph Epitafievich Y.
      Paragraph Epitafievich Y. 14 May 2021 13: 16
      -4
      Quote: Ren
      When disconnecting from SWIFT, cash will be paid for oil, gas, grain.

      with what fright? There are remote banking systems. It is longer and more vulnerable, but practically possible.
    3. ANB
      ANB 14 May 2021 16: 31
      +2
      ... When disconnecting from SWIFT, cash will be paid for oil, gas, grain

      As calculated, and will be calculated. Swift is not a payment system.
  3. skif8013
    skif8013 14 May 2021 12: 22
    -7
    Disconnecting Russia from SWIFT itself is like death for the company. An instant loss of image and reliability will immediately lead to the loss of the lion's share of the market. I don't think they will rock the boat.
    1. Monster_Fat
      Monster_Fat 14 May 2021 12: 53
      -1
      Disconnecting Russia from SWIFT itself is like death for the company.

      Not at all. "Google" how many countries are already disconnected from SWIFT - this is, firstly, secondly, the share of Russia in the international trade market (contrary to what is said in the Russian media) is negligible and will be quickly replaced by countries loyal to the United States.
      1. The leader of the Redskins
        The leader of the Redskins 14 May 2021 13: 15
        +8
        As I understand it, they are simply preparing us for the fact that "it will hurt, but not much, and then you, in general, will get used to it" ... laughing
      2. skif8013
        skif8013 14 May 2021 13: 24
        0
        Quote: Monster_Fat
        Disconnecting Russia from SWIFT itself is like death for the company.

        Not at all. "Google" how many countries are already disconnected from SWIFT - this is, firstly, secondly, the share of Russia in the international trade market (contrary to what is said in the Russian media) is negligible and will be quickly replaced by countries loyal to the United States.

        And how many are global like Russia? The owners of the company will in any case resist this, it all depends on how much pressure the United States, in the sense of the government, is.
      3. nnm
        nnm 14 May 2021 13: 56
        +10
        Well, yes, well, yes .... tell that to the Poles, Bulgarians, Slovakia, etc., who have 60 to 100% of gas from Russia.
        Can you name at least one country disconnected from SWIFT not by the decision of the UN Security Council?
      4. Tatyana Pershina
        Tatyana Pershina 14 May 2021 14: 26
        +2
        "... Russia's share in the international trade market is negligible ..."
        It depends on what product to sell. It is not so easy to replace vital hydrocarbons in the required volume.
    2. Vadim237
      Vadim237 14 May 2021 13: 21
      -6
      Don't worry, it won't.
  4. Rostislav
    Rostislav 14 May 2021 12: 48
    +1
    By striking Russia in such an extraordinary way, the United States will also strike Europe, which is very strongly integrated with Russia both economically and financially.

    So the rupture / complication of relations between Russia and Europe is one of the goals of the "raids" on Russia.
  5. The comment was deleted.
  6. Tagan
    Tagan 14 May 2021 13: 41
    +8
    Quote: Monster_Fat
    I don’t understand one thing, when they write about SWIFT and the consequences of its shutdown, is it really still not clear that ALL Visa, MasterCard cards work through this system? Is it really difficult to understand that if SWIFT is turned off, then these cards of Russian holders will stop working? That is, they will not work in Russia and will not work abroad - you can simply throw them out. But there is another trick - how did you open an account - if you have an account with a linked card, then yes, you can continue to use this account, withdrawing money in another way, but if you initially opened an account for these cards, then the account will be blocked! The "World" map in the west does not work, from the word "in general", I now, I do not know with what kind of "other European countries", except China, and then, only on some trading platforms such as Aliexpress, such as there is an agreement on the service of these cards (can someone tell me?), especially since this card is nominated only in rubles. Moreover, the US establishment has warned that the disconnection from SWIFT will follow in a package with other comprehensive sanctions, of the same type as for Iran and North Korea. When they say that the Russian verification system somewhere out there in some bank in the west and east has been accepted for installation and use, I always refer to this warning, to the fact that sanctions on the Russian financial system will extend precisely towards servicing any of it. accounts. You can try to install as many of your verification systems as you want, but banks simply will not install these systems at home, they will not service your transactions, for fear of falling under sanctions, as accomplices of Russia, which is under economic and financial sanctions. We must clearly understand this. No "own" verification systems will help. All that will remain is "barter", and not on Russia's terms.

    For some reason you mixed everything together - payment systems, SWIFT. These are completely different topics. Who told you that payment systems are directly linked to SWIFT? For payment systems, the starting point is the processing center. And it matters where it is. Regarding interbank settlements (international). There are many mechanisms to do without SWIFT. Until 20 years ago, not every Russian bank was connected to this system, but nothing prevented them from making settlements with foreign banks. Clearing settlements, settlements through correspondent accounts opened with other banks. Just longer chains of payment. But this is not fatal.
    Therefore, you should not mislead people.
    1. Petr Vladimirovich
      Petr Vladimirovich 14 May 2021 14: 41
      +4
      It seems that the author has not even heard of such payment methods as "telegraph", drafts and letters of credit.
      And how world trade lived without Swift just 40 years ago is simply incomprehensible to the mind ...
  7. nnm
    nnm 14 May 2021 13: 49
    +7
    I read the comments and just marveled at the level of knowledge ...
    1. And most importantly, after the launch of SPFS, SWIFT is critical only for cross-border transactions.
    2. Visa, MasterCart, etc., when making payments within the country, they will work quietly, since the employer does not use the SWIFT system for crediting your card to your card, and payments within the country will go through SPFS. If foreign friends stand in a pose and simply deactivate the issued cards, the money will not be lost, since it is not in these payment systems, but in BANKS. Checkout the World, or just get it at the bank.
    3. I was surprised that even the author associates SWIFT with US sanctions. So, the states have nothing to do with this operator. This is a private European company. Already in 2015, this company perfectly sent those who want to turn off Russia. Yes, the United States can impose sanctions against the system itself as blackmail (as against the SP-2 participants), but whether the company should succumb is a question, because the United States itself does not have an analogue to replace it.
    4. There are already other European analogues of SWIFT.
    5. The main problem will not be with Russia, but with Western countries. It's simple, Germany says:
    - sell us gas:
    - we will sell, of course. Pay!
    - as?!!! Cash wagons ?!
    - so no gas!
    6. In banks for transactions there are other channels, such as a teletype, it just makes sense to use it when there is an easier way. The maximum that will happen when disconnected is the increase in the time of payments. From a few seconds to hours. But nothing more.
    7. Loans for Russian companies in the West are practically unavailable because of the sanctions. And their term is catastrophically limited, and OFZ and the ban (although there foreign investors at the primary auction was less than 10% of the trading volume).

    To be honest, I am surprised that such a respected author has built his article on the basis of very superficial judgments that do not correspond to the real state of affairs.
    1. Stas157
      Stas157 14 May 2021 14: 34
      -5
      Quote: nnm
      Everything is simple, Germany says:
      - sell us gas:
      - we will sell, of course. Pay!
      - as?!!! Cash wagons ?!
      - so no gas!

      So everything is simple?
      And you do not admit such an option, at least hypothetically?

      Russia asks:
      - buy our gas, oil, grain, weapons:
      - we will buy, of course. But how do you pay?
      - as?!!! Cash wagons!
      - Not. There will be no deal.

      After all, if the Europeans themselves disconnect us from their SWIFT, it means they have calculated their risks (your described option). And also read our damage! Otherwise, it makes sense to turn off SWIFT for us?
      1. nnm
        nnm 14 May 2021 14: 57
        +5
        Lord ... well, stop doing Malthusianism:
        1. Europeans, as well as Americans, cannot take and turn off Swift. THIS IS A PRIVATE COMPANY! All the shutdowns made, such as the DPRK, Iran, were made only on the basis of the decisions of the UN Security Council.
        2. The difference in your example is huge!
        In Russia, the flow of foreign exchange earnings will simply decrease. The money supply itself will remain absolutely unchanged.
        Russia will not even die, not only by reorienting its gas to Asia, but even by losing 30% of the budget from these revenues.
        But how Bulgaria, Slovakia, Poland, Romania will live where Russian gas - 60-100% of the market - is a huge question. And what will become not only with the European economy, where approximately 35-40% of Russian gas is produced, but also with the world one? Are the prices presented for energy resources after such a decision? What about an instant rise in prices for everything and everyone? And just do not need tales that immediately there is someone to replace such a volume - these are tales for those who do not understand what he is saying.
        It is impossible to calculate such risks even approximately. Are you sure that Russia will not immediately nationalize all assets with Western participation worth hundreds of billions of dollars? How can you calculate the reaction of the population (VOTERS) of Europe in the pre-election / election year for the largest countries, from a huge jump in prices, bankruptcies, etc.?
        You look at the reports on the losses of the European Union from the already existing sanctions, but here there will be no sanctions at all, there will be just an economic war and no one will be able to calculate its outcome.
        Or you think that the United States does not understand that then we will become a raw material appendage of the PRC, supplying cheap resources there, while the United States and the West have received their growth, and you think that the United States does not understand that China will be so exploded from this, that only memories will remain of them ...
        1. Stas157
          Stas157 14 May 2021 20: 52
          -3
          Quote: nnm
          In Russia just the inflow of foreign exchange earnings will decrease. The money supply itself will remain absolutely unchanged.

          You have everything just... Only you missed the unfortunate moment that the emission of the ruble is entirely dependent on the inflow of green paper. And this will directly affect the volume of the money supply in the country. But most importantly, the country's budget tied to petrodollars will receive a colossal blow.
      2. Sergey M. Karasev
        Sergey M. Karasev 15 May 2021 10: 33
        +1
        After all, if the Europeans themselves disconnect us from their SWIFT, it means they have calculated their risks (your described option). And also read our damage! Otherwise, it makes sense to turn off SWIFT for us?

        Isn't it because SWIFT has not yet been turned off, because they have just calculated all the pros and cons? Us from 08.08.08. frightened by disconnecting from SWIFT, but things are still there.
    2. ANB
      ANB 14 May 2021 16: 36
      +2
      ... 1. And most importantly, after the launch of SPFS, SWIFT is critical only for cross-border transactions.

      I will add. If a foreign bank with a correspondent account is connected to an SPFS, then there will be no problems for cross-border transfers.
      1. Stas157
        Stas157 14 May 2021 20: 41
        -2
        Quote: ANB
        If a foreign bank with a correspondent account connects to an SPFS, then for cross-border transfers there will be no problems.

        Still how it will be. There are no fools in the West. And they are well aware of the existence of SPFS. If we are disconnected from SWIFT, then the connection of banks to the SPFS will clearly be prohibited (sanctions). So easy to get around the fool, no one will.
        1. ANB
          ANB 14 May 2021 23: 19
          +2
          ... If we are disconnected from SWIFT, then the connection of banks to the SPFS will clearly be prohibited (sanctions). So easy to get around the fool, no one will.

          1. It is impossible to disconnect the RF from SWIFT, since the states do not connect to it. Organizations are connected, including banks.
          2. For several years now they have been putting pressure on the swift to turn it off and still nothing. And what will the ban on connecting to other messaging systems look like?
          3. Both swift and spfs are actually whatsapp, telegrams and analogs, with greater protection and storage of messages and receipts.
          4. To block international settlements, Russian banks need to block their correspondent accounts with foreign banks. But this question is not even raised, for it is fraught with a response.
          Conclusion: disconnecting the RF from SWIFT is more of a horror story.
        2. ANB
          ANB 14 May 2021 23: 38
          +3
          Well, to the heap, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation has already sent out a draft album of UEFBS, in which there will be currency transfers on currency correspondent accounts. This will already be a real centralized payment system, not like Swift.
    3. ccsr
      ccsr 16 May 2021 17: 57
      +1
      I fully agree with your conclusions about the current situation. But I don't quite agree with you about this conclusion:

      Quote: nnm
      The main problem will not be with Russia, but with Western countries. It's simple, Germany says:
      - sell us gas:
      - we will sell, of course. Pay!
      - as?!!! Cash wagons ?!
      - so no gas!

      It is unlikely that we will refuse gas supplies in such a situation, but we will perfectly accept planes with cash in euros as payment for gas. In the nineties, many banks imported foreign currency into Russia on the orders of our consumers, and no one was bothered by this. It is inconvenient, of course, costly and non-operational, but nevertheless it is possible to work this way.
      1. SovAr238A
        SovAr238A 18 May 2021 12: 03
        +1
        Quote: ccsr
        I fully agree with your conclusions about the current situation. But I don't quite agree with you about this conclusion:

        Quote: nnm
        The main problem will not be with Russia, but with Western countries. It's simple, Germany says:
        - sell us gas:
        - we will sell, of course. Pay!
        - as?!!! Cash wagons ?!
        - so no gas!

        It is unlikely that we will refuse gas supplies in such a situation, but we will perfectly accept planes with cash in euros as payment for gas. In the nineties, many banks imported foreign currency into Russia on the orders of our consumers, and no one was bothered by this. It is inconvenient, of course, costly and non-operational, but nevertheless it is possible to work this way.


        Now tell all of us how they will bring us potatoes, tomatoes, apples, oranges, tangerines, grapes - which are imported annually 10 million tons. And for which our importers pay with suppliers through payment systems.
        What will be there in the stores?
        Spare parts for cars?
        Household and computer equipment?
        Refrigeration equipment?
        Construction and road machinery?
        Warehouse equipment and warehouse equipment and warehouse programs, with the help of which stores are completed.
        Aviation?
        Does everything get up?

        99% assortment of shops Castorama, LeroyMerlin, Obi, Petrovich - how will it all "continue"
        ?
        Finally go out into the street - find out of 1000 objects around you those that are Russian-made and that really affect human life ...


        Swift will be switched off only together with bans on working with Russian structures.
        So, as is already in other cases of economic anaconda ...
        1. ccsr
          ccsr 18 May 2021 12: 48
          -1
          Quote: SovAr238A
          Now tell all of us how they will bring us potatoes, tomatoes, apples, oranges, tangerines, grapes - which are imported annually 10 million tons.

          Just like in the nineties. Even military transport aircraft were driven to the Arctic and the Far East.

          Quote: SovAr238A
          Does everything get up?

          What a joy if China sells us anything for money.
          Quote: SovAr238A
          99% assortment of shops Castorama, LeroyMerlin, Obi, Petrovich - how will it all "continue"

          You better ask their owners this question - they will also incur losses due to difficulties with payment.

          Quote: SovAr238A
          Finally go out into the street - find out of 1000 objects around you those that are Russian-made and that really affect a person's life.

          All Samsung TVs and monitors, for example, are manufactured in Russia - and they are not alone in the production of their equipment in our country. Japanese "Kamatsu" also has its own plant for the production of cranes and construction equipment in Russia and they are not going to reduce it, because this gives them a stable income. Then I am too lazy to engage in educational programs - you yourself will look for what Western products are produced here, and you will learn a lot, including about Lukoil, which was sold to the Americans, and who receive dividends from Russia.
          Quote: SovAr238A
          Swift will be switched off only together with bans on working with Russian structures.
          So, as is already in other cases of economic anaconda ...

          And what did it work against Iran and North Korea? Yes, China does not give a damn about swift - it trades with them and does not bother. So your fears are sucked from the finger - even if there are losses, it will not be significant enough to sprinkle ashes on your head.
          1. SovAr238A
            SovAr238A 18 May 2021 13: 34
            0
            Quote: ccsr
            Quote: SovAr238A
            Now tell all of us how they will bring us potatoes, tomatoes, apples, oranges, tangerines, grapes - which are imported annually 10 million tons.

            Just like in the nineties. Even military transport aircraft were driven to the Arctic and the Far East.

            Quote: SovAr238A
            Does everything get up?

            What a joy if China sells us anything for money.
            Quote: SovAr238A
            99% assortment of shops Castorama, LeroyMerlin, Obi, Petrovich - how will it all "continue"

            You better ask their owners this question - they will also incur losses due to difficulties with payment.

            Quote: SovAr238A
            Finally go out into the street - find out of 1000 objects around you those that are Russian-made and that really affect a person's life.

            All Samsung TVs and monitors, for example, are manufactured in Russia - and they are not alone in the production of their equipment in our country. Japanese "Kamatsu" also has its own plant for the production of cranes and construction equipment in Russia and they are not going to reduce it, because this gives them a stable income. Then I am too lazy to engage in educational programs - you yourself will look for what Western products are produced here, and you will learn a lot, including about Lukoil, which was sold to the Americans, and who receive dividends from Russia.
            Quote: SovAr238A
            Swift will be switched off only together with bans on working with Russian structures.
            So, as is already in other cases of economic anaconda ...

            And what did it work against Iran and North Korea? Yes, China does not give a damn about swift - it trades with them and does not bother. So your fears are sucked from the finger - even if there are losses, it will not be significant enough to sprinkle ashes on your head.


            You are very mistaken.
            US sanctions under the CAATS document - applies to each counterparty who contacted the subject of sanctions.
            And when in 2015-2017 we were "significantly" covered for the first time, there were many cries that now Chinese banks will start lending to us. That America is not a decree to them.
            And here are the figurines.
            And not a single yuan came to our country as a cheap loan.
            Not a single bank started lending to our economy.
            No matter how the news lies, the share of non-dollar and non-euro trade, even with China, has practically not increased over the past 10 years.
            All the same, all calculations are carried out through the dollar.
            This means that every transaction goes through American issuing banks.


            Samsung is assembling in the Russian Federation, but not manufacturing.
            Do you know how many companies in the world that produce LCD matrices?
            and where they are.
            And Samsung will also stop working in the Russian Federation, so as not to be punished under the CAATS document.

            Komatsu is also a 95% collector. Only the largest casting parts are made in the Russian Federation. Everything else is import. And also, if Komattsu stops its work in the Russian Federation, does not supply components here, so as not to be "closed" throughout the rest of the world, then it will perform CAATS.

            So your educational program is from a topic like "Rabinovich's opera by Verdi on a Stradivari violin" whistled "
            Everything that you have written is complete ignorance.


            And with Iran and North Korea - it worked great.
            Together with the embargo, most of the import-export operations have been discontinued.
            And in the case of North Korea - to the level of the economy equal to the end of the 50s.
            And in Iran - the level of the economy is approximately the level of the 80s.
            My wife has been to Iran many times when Megafon wanted to work there.
            I saw that life very well.
            But Megaphone really wanted to, but "did not grow together" ...
            And the reason for the "non-growth" is the sanctions.
            1. ccsr
              ccsr 18 May 2021 13: 41
              -1
              Quote: SovAr238A
              You are very mistaken.

              If I was seriously mistaken, then the swift was turned off at least in 2014. So your predictions are not backed up by real facts, no matter what you cite there.
              Quote: SovAr238A
              And not a single yuan came to our country as a cheap loan.

              And at whose expense was the pipeline to China built?
              Quote: SovAr238A
              Everything that you have written is complete ignorance.

              All that you write is just pathetic propaganda, which is not supported by anything, except for your fabrications. Russia not only did not deflate after these sanctions, but, on the contrary, became a leader even in grain exports, not to mention the income from the sale of the covid vaccine.
              By the way, the largest retail chain Etual recently entered Crimea - so tell your horror stories to its owners.
              Quote: SovAr238A
              My wife has been to Iran many times,

              Russia is not Iran - we are a player of a completely different level, so leave your descriptions of horrors to ignorant people.
              1. SovAr238A
                SovAr238A 20 May 2021 11: 43
                0
                Quote: ccsr
                Quote: SovAr238A
                You are very mistaken.

                If I was seriously mistaken, then the swift was turned off at least in 2014. So your predictions are not backed up by real facts, no matter what you cite there.
                Quote: SovAr238A
                And not a single yuan came to our country as a cheap loan.

                And at whose expense was the pipeline to China built?
                Quote: SovAr238A
                Everything that you have written is complete ignorance.

                All that you write is just pathetic propaganda, which is not supported by anything, except for your fabrications. Russia not only did not deflate after these sanctions, but, on the contrary, became a leader even in grain exports, not to mention the income from the sale of the covid vaccine.
                By the way, the largest retail chain Etual recently entered Crimea - so tell your horror stories to its owners.
                Quote: SovAr238A
                My wife has been to Iran many times,

                Russia is not Iran - we are a player of a completely different level, so leave your descriptions of horrors to ignorant people.


                Learn materiel and stop talking nonsense.
                The Power of Siberia pipeline was built only with funds from Gazprom and money from the Russian Fund for National Welfare.
                The Chinese brothers did not give Gazprom any yuan either in investments or in advance payments for the construction of this gas pipeline. Although there were talks about $ 25 billion in investments. But I repeat, we did not receive a yuan.
                And I was at the construction of this gas pipeline, I had to go to work in Zhigalovo.
                The Chinese do not need this project in principle.
                This project is a complete scam.
                For the production that is now available at the Kovykta and Chaynda, the percentage of filling the pipe there will be no more than 20% of the capacity.
                It will never make a profit.
                Only in the event of a war between China and America - when the entire Pacific coast of China is subject to the blockade - only then this gas may be needed by China.
                I’ll tell you right away, it’s extremely unlikely.
                And we have already boosted one and a half trillion rubles.
                And a gas pipeline cannot be put on a shelf in anticipation of "being in demand."
                It needs to be kept.
                The replacement of 1 kilometer of pipe in the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug by Transneft is estimated at just under a billion rubles.
                Learn materiel and not agitation.


                Vaccine revenue?
                What?
                How much have you already earned?


                What kind of etoile network came to Crimea?
                Is that the one that sells perfume and lipstick?
                on the website Letu.ru, I somehow did not find information about the opening of new stores there ...

                But I have a question.
                And where are our hypermarkets like Pyaterochka, Magnets, Traffic lights, Crossroads, Carousels, Coins, Ribbons?
                And where are our banks like Sberbank, VTB, Alfa-Bank, Otkrytie, Rosselkhozbank?
                Are our filling stations like Gazpromneft, Rosneft, Lukoil, Bashneft, Tatneft in Crimea?
                About all sorts of Maxidoms, All instruments, etc. you can probably not remember?
                1. ccsr
                  ccsr 20 May 2021 12: 15
                  -1
                  Quote: SovAr238A
                  Learn materiel and stop talking nonsense.
                  The Power of Siberia pipeline was built only with funds from Gazprom and money from the Russian Fund for National Welfare.

                  You don't even know the financing history of this project, but you are already trying to teach others:
                  In May 2014, the project was given a new impetus in connection with the signing of a 30-year contract for the supply of gas to China between Gazprom and CNPC. According to the contract, 38 billion cubic meters of gas should be supplied annually [21]. The total amount of the contract is $ 400 billion. At the same time, as reported, Gazprom was to receive from CNPC an advance payment for gas in the amount of $ 25 billion, which was supposed to be used for the construction of the Power of Siberia gas pipeline [22]. However, in the future, Gazprom refused to pay in advance in order not to reduce the price of gas planned for delivery via the pipeline.

                  I explain for the uninformed - we threw the Chinese, luring them into the project, but at the same time we will not share the proceeds from the operation of the gas pipeline, which runs mainly through our territory.
                  Quote: SovAr238A
                  The Chinese brothers did not give Gazprom any yuan either in investments or in advance payments for the construction of this gas pipeline.

                  We ourselves refused - you are clearly not in the subject.

                  Quote: SovAr238A
                  And a gas pipeline cannot be put on a shelf in anticipation of "being in demand."

                  Did the Chinese tell you that it is not in demand? I have not heard of this, on the contrary, they fulfill our obligations:
                  According to the press service of PJSC Gazprom,

                  the company has reached a new level of daily gas supplies to China via the Power of Siberia gas pipeline. The volume of supplies corresponds to the contractual obligations for 2021, twice the daily contractual obligations of the company in the 4th quarter of last year, and by 220% - the minimum daily gas supply in the 1st quarter of 2020.

                  Quote: SovAr238A
                  What kind of etoile network came to Crimea?
                  Is that the one that sells perfume and lipstick?

                  Strange, but you guessed it - this is the same company that sells perfumes in all large supermarkets and in individual stores in the capital.
                  Quote: SovAr238A
                  And where are our hypermarkets like Pyaterochka, Magnets, Traffic lights, Crossroads, Carousels, Coins, Ribbons?

                  Do you think that Fresh, Silpo, Pud and other Crimean networks will give way to the market so easily? Yes, you are just a naive person, and do not know the situation in Crimea. By the way, "Dobrotsen" has already entered the Crimea more than a year ago - you are behind the times.
                  Quote: SovAr238A
                  And where are our banks like Sberbank, VTB, Alfa-Bank, Otkrytie, Rosselkhozbank?

                  And why are they there, if several local banks (Russia, RNKB, Morskoy, etc.) even cope with the cards of tourists from any bank in the country?
                  Quote: SovAr238A
                  Are our filling stations like Gazpromneft, Rosneft, Lukoil, Bashneft, Tatneft in Crimea?

                  They have their own networks (in particular, with Ukrainian capital), and they are not going to sell their gas stations, but on the contrary, they are building more and more new ones and modernizing old ones.

                  When was the last time you were in Crimea to tell me how things are there, if I came from there last Sunday?
                  Here is a photo of the restored Mithridates staircase, the opening of which was thwarted by the coronavirus:
                  1. SovAr238A
                    SovAr238A 20 May 2021 12: 33
                    0
                    Quote: ccsr
                    And at whose expense was the pipeline to China built?
                    ...
                    I explain for the uninformed - we threw the Chinese,


                    Those. even in small - you changed your shoes on the fly.
                    At first they shouted that the Power of Siberia was built on Chinese money, and after my message - it turns out we threw them ...

                    You are a liar!
                    changing shoes on the fly is about you.
                    1. ccsr
                      ccsr 20 May 2021 12: 51
                      0
                      Quote: SovAr238A
                      At first they shouted that the Power of Siberia was built on Chinese money, and after my message - it turns out we threw them ...

                      They gave us STATE guarantees of gas purchases in the amount of 1,1 trillion rubles. - this is the security of a loan for construction, you just do not understand these issues.
                      Quote: SovAr238A
                      You are a liar!
                      changing shoes on the fly is about you.

                      I am sure that in business you are simply zero, and you have no idea how it all works.
                      Under this contract with the Chinese, any bank in Russia or another state, including China, will give a loan for all construction, and Gazprom will not spend any of its own money, because it does not have so many free funds - this is how the whole world works. A similar picture is with SP-2, but about half of the funds there were invested in construction by foreigners, which, by the way, is unprofitable for us in the light of future profits for transportation.
                      In general, the militant ignorance of you is rushing, even though you are trying to show your cleverness.
                      1. SovAr238A
                        SovAr238A 20 May 2021 13: 42
                        0
                        Quote: ccsr
                        Quote: SovAr238A
                        At first they shouted that the Power of Siberia was built on Chinese money, and after my message - it turns out we threw them ...

                        They gave us STATE guarantees of gas purchases in the amount of 1,1 trillion rubles. - this is the security of a loan for construction, you just do not understand these issues.
                        Quote: SovAr238A
                        You are a liar!
                        changing shoes on the fly is about you.

                        I am sure that in business you are simply zero, and you have no idea how it all works.
                        Under this contract with the Chinese, any bank in Russia or another state, including China, will give a loan for all construction, and Gazprom will not spend any of its own money, because it does not have so many free funds - this is how the whole world works. A similar picture is with SP-2, but about half of the funds there were invested in construction by foreigners, which, by the way, is unprofitable for us in the light of future profits for transportation.
                        In general, the militant ignorance of you is rushing, even though you are trying to show your cleverness.


                        Do not misinterpret.
                        and don't scream.
                        the text written by KAPSLOK is considered on the Internet for screaming and hysterics.

                        Gazprom signed a memorandum of understanding with CNPC.
                        But not Russia and China.
                        Therefore, state guarantees are your lies and your delirium.

                        1.1 trillion rubles is the announced cost of the pipeline construction in 2014.
                        But not a contract.
                        But Gazprom itself writes about its costs for the gas pipeline and its infrastructure on the Russian part of $ 55 billion (which at the current exchange rate of 74 rubles per dollar is already 4 trillion rubles).
                        And this is how it should be considered.
                        Since all the fuel, all the metal, all that is needed for the construction of facilities and infrastructure - everything is tied to exchange prices.
                        Have you seen how over the past six months the prices for metal, copper - almost doubled ????
                        So think further about what the real costs are.

                        The contract has no final price - it is dynamic and tied to the oil price.
                        Sometimes it is 200 dollars per 1000 cubic meters, sometimes it is 300, sometimes it is 150 ...
                        and how many there will be in 30 years - no one knows.
                        With a plan of 38 billion cubic meters per year, only 2020 billion cubic meters were pumped in 4.

                        And when you write that I am zero in business, and immediately write that any bank will give money ...
                        I have a question - did you do business yourself?
                        The bank can and will give, but who will return this money to the bank in the form of a loan body and interest on it, if the deliveries are 10 times less than planned and do not even give a hint of profit?
                        As a manager of a division (300 cars) in a private car company (a total of 1000 cars) working on oil and gas pipelines in the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug, Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, I know perfectly well both the costs and the profits ...
                        And I also have an MBA.

                        But you, apparently, in general, except for your battle couch, do not know anything, but it is you who so militantly accuse me of ignorance. When you write, probably look in the mirror?


                        Although I have already caught you several times in juggling, lying and changing shoes on the fly.
                      2. ccsr
                        ccsr 20 May 2021 19: 54
                        0
                        Quote: SovAr238A
                        the text written by KAPSLOK is considered on the Internet for screaming and hysterics.

                        I do not care what you think of as a cry, but I specially highlighted the text, since you have no idea what state guarantees are when concluding commercial agreements.
                        Quote: SovAr238A
                        Gazprom signed a memorandum of understanding with CNPC.
                        But not Russia and China.

                        You couldn't even figure it out, because these are state-owned companies:
                        China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) is China's largest company of its kind. The profits from her work go entirely to the state. In addition, it is one of the largest energy enterprises in the world. The corporation was created in the fall of 1988, based on the capital of the former Ministry of Oil Industry of China.

                        Source: China National Petroleum Corporation - Moneyman © MoneyMan.ru
                        So the agreement was signed on behalf of the governments of the two states, which means it is an intergovernmental agreement.
                        Quote: SovAr238A
                        Have you seen how over the past six months the prices for metal, copper - almost doubled ????

                        Have you seen how oil prices soared recently? And the cost of gas is tied to it, so your hand-wringing won't work.
                        Quote: SovAr238A
                        I have a question - did you do business yourself?

                        I am still doing it.
                        Quote: SovAr238A
                        As a manager of a division (300 cars) in a private car company (a total of 1000 cars) working on oil and gas pipelines in the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug, Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, I know perfectly well both the costs and the profits ...

                        And at the same time, you demonstrate complete ignorance in the understanding of interstate agreements when concluding long-term agreements. So your management in a private enterprise does not say anything - you are not mature enough to assess interstate agreements.
                        Quote: SovAr238A
                        Although I have already caught you several times in juggling, lying and changing shoes on the fly.

                        Lying as always - so you are trying to hide your illiteracy in matters of an economic nature, which are higher in level than your private enterprise.
                        Quote: SovAr238A
                        Sometimes it is 200 dollars per 1000 cubic meters, sometimes it is 300, sometimes it is 150 ...
                        and how many there will be in 30 years - no one knows.

                        Unlike you, smart people understand that gas is ours, and they will need it more and more and pay for it - this was understood in the USSR when they laid gas pipelines in Germany. But you haven’t heard anything about this, so you are rushing about, not realizing that this is a LONG-TERM investment in our economy. I wrote for you especially in big letters - maybe you can read at least something, how they differ from short-term investments, so as not to cry about:
                        Quote: SovAr238A
                        But Gazprom itself writes about its costs for the gas pipeline and its infrastructure on the Russian part of $ 55 billion (which at the current exchange rate of 74 rubles per dollar is already 4 trillion rubles).

                        By the way, this money went mainly to our companies, so that Gazprom provided our contractors well with income - you cannot understand this either.
  • Roman070280
    Roman070280 14 May 2021 14: 32
    -18%
    And the most radical measure is to stop the import of oil and gas from the Russian Federation. It seems that on the eve of global warming, someone really wants to freeze? But Russia, disconnected from SWIFT, can, after all, take advantage of such a nuance - referring to force majeure, refuse to pay its obligations to foreign creditors.


    Foreign creditors will not die, but without oil / gas imports (it's scary to even imagine how the ruble exchange rate will jump in this case) Russia will very quickly slide straight to the level of the 90s (although I may be wrong, in the 90s we didn’t buy seeds at least in the west, and could grow something of their own) ..

    Otherwise, many still believe that Putin is not Yeltsin, and that we have been getting up from our knees for 20 years, and that all this is only thanks to the wise policy of the sun-faced leader ...
    1. Woodman
      Woodman 14 May 2021 14: 40
      +6
      Quote: Roman070280
      but without importing oil / gas (it's scary to even imagine how the ruble rate will jump in this case) Russia will very quickly slide down

      Russia does not IMPORT oil / gas, but exports. You don't know the difference between such concepts, but you undertake to predict who and where will slide ...
      1. Roman070280
        Roman070280 14 May 2021 14: 48
        -14%
        Well, the most radical measure is to stop import oil and gas from the Russian Federation.


        You should at least read before commenting ..
        Although the essence of what was said there was not at all in this, and it did not reach you either ..
        And yes .. I did not predict, but refuted the prediction in the quote that if "stop import oil and gas from the Russian Federation ", it will become worse for them, not for us ..
        1. Woodman
          Woodman 14 May 2021 15: 27
          +2
          Quote: Roman070280
          You should at least read

          What did I read wrong in your comment?
          Quote: Roman070280
          but without importing oil / gas (it's scary to even imagine how the ruble will jump in this case) Russia will very quickly slide straight
          1. Roman070280
            Roman070280 14 May 2021 15: 36
            -15%
            What did I read wrong in your comment?

            Well, the most radical measure is to stop import oil and gas from RF.


            Do not thank..
            1. Woodman
              Woodman 14 May 2021 15: 38
              +3
              Quote: Roman070280
              Do not thank..

              What a running case ...
              1. Roman070280
                Roman070280 14 May 2021 15: 58
                -13%
                Sorry..
    2. ANB
      ANB 14 May 2021 23: 22
      +1
      [quote]. without oil / gas imports [/ quote
      Russia still does not import oil and gas. There are enough of our own.
  • Tagan
    Tagan 14 May 2021 14: 49
    +4
    Quote: Lesovik
    Quote: Roman070280
    but without importing oil / gas (it's scary to even imagine how the ruble rate will jump in this case) Russia will very quickly slide down

    Russia does not IMPORT oil / gas, but exports. You don't know the difference between such concepts, but you undertake to predict who and where will slide ...

    Right!
    I remembered Psaki, who told how gas is pumped from Europe to Russia))
  • parusnik
    parusnik 14 May 2021 14: 54
    +3
    And if tomorrow is a war, if the enemy attacks, if the dark forces are coming? smile Will the money be given out on coupons? smile
    1. IS-80_RVGK2
      IS-80_RVGK2 14 May 2021 16: 23
      -1
      Quote: parusnik
      Will the money be given out on coupons?

      They will issue a ruzho and send them to die heroically for their Motherland. Well, or for the billions of our precious bourgeoisie, which is the same today.
    2. dSK
      dSK 17 May 2021 00: 51
      0
      Quote: parusnik
      Will the money be given out on coupons?

      No, then BREAD will be given out according to coupons...
  • Alsur
    Alsur 14 May 2021 14: 54
    +5
    Quote: Monster_Fat
    You can try to install as many of your verification systems as you want, but banks simply will not install these systems at home, they will not service your transactions, for fear of falling under sanctions, as accomplices of Russia, which is under economic and financial sanctions

    Judging by the expression - "You can try to install as many of your verification systems as you want", you are not a Russian, so the question immediately arises, where do you know the settlement system in Russia better than we do. And why are you so worried that Russians would know the harsh truth that everything will be bad for ordinary Russians after SWIFTl is turned off. Maybe you better take care of your country?
  • Tagan
    Tagan 14 May 2021 14: 59
    +2
    Quote: Stas157

    After all, if the Europeans themselves disconnect us from their SWIFT, it means they have calculated their risks (your described option). And also read our damage! Otherwise, it makes sense to turn off SWIFT for us?

    That is why the probability of disconnecting from SWIFT is extremely small. And this argument is far from the most effective.
    In addition, Europeans have business in Russia.
  • for
    for 15 May 2021 07: 50
    +1
    And why, if it's so good without swift, then we ourselves do not switch off? Not so simple.
  • Zaurbek
    Zaurbek 15 May 2021 08: 55
    0
    It is not clear who will be worse. One side:
    1. It is difficult to sell raw materials
    2. Have to sell it at a discount to normal prices
    With another:
    RF is a large producer and seller of raw materials
    1. The Russian Federation will somehow sell it and come up with some non-dollar payments
    2. Without SWIFT, the United States will not control these calculations, and this may create schemes for uncontrolled purchases of sanctioned products and trade with sanctioned countries.
    3. Without the RF, a shortage of resources may arise in the market with SWIFT.
  • BAI
    BAI 16 May 2021 13: 03
    0
    freeze the European assets of Russian officials and oligarchs? Or such a terrible thing - to prohibit them from entering the territory of the EU countries.

    Unfortunately the number will not work. Theresa May frightened, frightened with similar prohibitions within England. AND NOTHING! ABSOLUTELY! Money is money.
  • Dmitry V.
    Dmitry V. 19 May 2021 11: 41
    0
    It seems that on the eve of global warming, someone really wants to freeze

    What - there is nowhere else to buy oil and gas?
  • Kelwin
    Kelwin 21 May 2021 03: 38
    0
    Throw out 1/6 of the sushi from circulation. Well, let's try) Mr. Shuvalov's castle in the castle of course will happen, well, h .. well, it happens. Well, maybe someone else will cover the card with a copper basin, somewhere in the Harvard area. Yes, and across - bureaucrats go to the sopa, there will not be enough pillars if the hands reach out