Military Review

Oil will not save Russia

110
A year ago, in the article “Russia before and after the elections,” we gave several options for the development of the situation. In general, it can be said that the version of the future that we considered the most likely was justified, even though the domestic policy of Russia presented an unexpected surprise in the form of the awakening of a significant part of society to civic activism.

Putin, the de facto supreme ruler of the Russian elite and bureaucracy during the entire "reign" of Medvedev, President Zits, and having regained the formal presidential powers following the scandalous elections this spring, did not introduce any significant changes in economic policy. As expected, he remained the president of a large oligarchic business, which is difficult to judge in Russian realities whether he is a state or not - corporate interests in contemporary Russia are so closely intertwined (mainly through the mechanisms of corruption) with the interests of the state bureaucracy. As for the social policy, the state apparatus headed by Putin has embarked on the path of repression aimed at suppressing an independent civil society, which has not yet been able to find worthy leaders who can consolidate and systematize its protest, directing it to a constructive course of non-violent regime change.

With a superficial examination, the socio-economic situation in the country returns to the usual direction of the “oil coma”. High oil prices, supported by ultra-soft monetary policies trapped in the "liquidity trap" of developed economies and fueled by expectations of further monetary incentives, allow Putin to maintain an inefficient and repressive state machine, and even raise the allowances of the security forces and the military. Commodity revenues allow you to pursue an economic course laid down by Kudrin, who today has already moved away from public affairs and is trying to position himself as one of the moderators of the dialogue between the government and the anti-system opposition (the role is minor, considering that there is no dialogue as such, and is not foreseen). The essence of the course, as we have repeatedly said, is the binding of monetary emission to export earnings. A part of the emission goes to the federal budget in the form of taxes, the expenditures of the federal budget stimulate domestic demand across the country, which, therefore, turns out to be strictly determined by external and external economic conditions. Basically, this course has remained unchanged, although it must be admitted that the Bank of Russia today, in moments of short-term exacerbations in the global credit market, has a somewhat more flexible policy than before.

There are, however, changes that began last year. Last year was the first in stories post-Soviet Russia, when the growth of commodity prices and export earnings was accompanied by an outflow of capital from the country. This year, this trend has continued and there is reason to believe that it will increase in the long term. The Central Bank of the Russian Federation in the updated “Key Monetary Policy Guidelines” on 2012-2014 forecasts capital outflow in the current year in the amount of $ 70 billion. Greater outflow was observed only in the crisis 2008-m: $ 133,7 billion. At the same time, the average annual prices for crude oil Brent in 2008 was $ 94, and in the first half of 2012, a barrel of black gold was worth an average of $ 112.

Oil will not save Russia

The data for the last two years (pre-election and first post-election) indicate a clear correlation between the dynamics of the global commodity market and cross-border capital flows. With a stable favorable external economic situation, symptoms characteristic of a crisis situation are observed and growing, which allows to conclude that there is a crisis after all, and it is internal, internal. The reason for this negative trend, in our opinion, is simple: in order to continue to believe in the long-term prospects of Putinism, you must either hope to close your eyes to the continuing exacerbation of social and intra-elite contradictions in the country, or to be deceived by state propaganda. Among those who have money and the opportunity to transfer them to foreign banks or real estate, in the event of an almost inevitable, sooner or later, exacerbation of the socio-economic situation in the country, to go into temporary or permanent emigration - there are few such people.

Tops can not

Analyzing the chain of domestic political events that began with the Putin-Medvedev “castling” and ending with the latest scandalous politically motivated lawsuits, it is easy to conclude that the split of the elites in Russia, like the split of Russian society itself, can be considered a fait accompli. The split of the elites was probably brewing last year, aggravated by Putin’s decision to commit a castling with Medvedev, which resulted in Kudrin’s resignation, and finally took shape after the elections, when the government of Medvedev was formed, while some of Putin’s ministers went to the Administration Putin's president.

This split of the elites cannot be called a split into a “liberal” and “conservative” wing. “Liberalism”, as well as “conservatism” in Russian political realities, cannot be understood as they are traditionally understood within the framework of Western political culture, from which these terms migrated to the Russian one. In Russia, rather, we can talk about society in favor of an open society and the state of the rule of law, and traditionalists, “sovereigns,” whose ranks are quite variegated, but are united by the rejection of the western experience of building society and the state, and the West, as a whole. As for the elites, mired in corruption equally regardless of political affiliation and civilizational sympathies, there was a split between supporters of globalization and property legalization in the process of intertwining local interests with foreign capital, and supporters of moderate isolationism, and imparting legitimacy to property through proximity to power resources. The former are ready to rely on the conditionally “liberal” part of society, the latter, the siloviki and the circles close to them, on the conventional “conservatives”.

Last soc. Surveys show that the social base of security forces and traditionalists is declining today, and this process is unlikely to be impeded by an increase in raw export earnings, because the efficiency of converting these revenues into domestic demand drops sharply. Income growth, if any, will mostly settle in the offshore pockets of the elite, contributing to capital outflows.

The maneuvers of Igor Sechin indicate the direction in which intra-elite processes will develop. Starting as an expropriator of YUKOS in favor of the state, today he turned from a state official to the head of that defeated YUKOS, which now exists under the Rosneft brand, whose state package is scheduled for privatization. It seems that the conditional “liberals” will be crushed by the security forces, and the formally victorious forces together with Putin, gaining control over corporate state property, which will eventually become private, will gradually move into the camp of conditional “liberals”. This will inevitably happen, because as the social base is lost, there is no other way to preserve status and influence within the framework of the existing Russian economic system, which is inseparably and tightly connected today with export-import financial flows and, as a result, with the global financial system not. Traditionalists cannot offer Russia, which today is tightly integrated into world trade and the global financial system, a realistic and workable program of socio-economic development that would reflect their nostalgia for the times when Russia in the form of the USSR represented a successful and autonomous economic autarky. To indulge in the illusions that the “damned West” is about to be bent under the weight of its paper debts (which will open the way for Russia to a new “bright future”) while these debts are, according to the balance of the Bank of Russia, the lion’s share of providing Russian ruble, it gets harder and harder.

In the light of the emerging intra-elite tendencies, it is not surprising that Putin, who was the main brake on Medvedev’s ambitious presidency for large-scale privatization, now, following the interests of the “liberalized” siloviki, has turned into its supporter. Those naive people who saw Putin as a defender against the power of an oligarchy, who, relying on the will of the majority, can restore justice that was violated against the people in 90, will be frustrated if not yet disappointed. Putin’s victory means only that the security forces have received a window of opportunity for the next few years to en massely sit in the “liberal train” of new privatization.

This process, however, will not go smoothly, and not everyone will be able to get on the “liberal train”, simply because the property, given the appetites of the most senior and not yet “well-groomed” members of Putin's elite, is not enough for everyone, even if robbed all those in the country who have it since Yeltsin's times. Tickets to the future are in short supply. In the light of this, both the excessive zeal of the investigative committee and its scandalous head, and the zeal of the “party of power”, which stamps out repressive laws as soon as possible, are understandable and fully explainable. All those who do not belong to the highest league of Russian politics, the entrance to which is possible through the control of large property and the corresponding financial flows, have today to show their loyalty by all means. Otherwise, do not deserve your place in the caste of the elect, or among them. And for those who do not fall into this caste, it’s not at all the large blocks of shares of privatized corporations, but the “Magnitsky list” and the exposure of criminal and corruption activities within the framework of the inevitable future sequestration of the elite, which today is preparing a new bill prohibiting officials from having accounts and real estate abroad.

Bottoms will want

The split of elites and opposition protests is not the only risk of social unrest in 2012. Few people pay attention to inflationary trends in the modern Russian economy. As is known, the rise in prices, especially for products and essential services, beats the most on the least well-off citizens, in the consumption structure of which products and housing and utilities services occupy a priority place. In just a few months, grain in Russia went up in price by more than 20%, sugar by 12%. The growth of utility tariffs from July 1, according to Deputy Economic Development Minister Andrei Klepach, will add another 1-1.5% to the official annual inflation, and significantly more from the social one calculated using the basket of average Russian consumption. According to surveys of the Levada Center, in July of this year, 85% of Russians expected further price growth at the same pace, and a third of them feared inflation acceleration in the coming months. It seems that these expectations will be met.

The government risks being in a situation of zugzwang: an attempt to compensate for the rise in prices by increasing social benefits will further increase inflation and provoke an acceleration of capital outflows, which will lead to higher interest rates, deterioration in lending and a negative impact on business activity. An attempt in this situation to balance the traditional budget in such cases with ruble devaluation will support the producer and the financial sector, but for the population it will only worsen the situation. If you do nothing, you will have to accept the fall in real incomes of the least protected part of society, namely, it is so far the main social support of the Putin regime. Thus, this fall, if macroeconomic stability is not sacrificed for social stability, social protest will feed not only on dissatisfaction with the political system, but also on dissatisfaction with the social and economic situation. If macroeconomic stability will be sacrificed to populism, it will only accelerate the development of the economic situation in the direction when populism in the future will not afford the regime.

Who will be extreme?

Summarizing the tendencies outlined above, one can foresee the emergence in the country of a double revolutionary situation, reflecting the growth of tension between the people and the elites, and between different layers of the elite. On the one hand, the popular "bottoms" will no longer be inclined to accept the life of the "old", on the other hand, the "elite tops", responding to the challenges of their security, both from the masses and on the part of external factors, they will begin, nevertheless, to act in a new way and in a new capacity. But at the same time, the “extreme” will turn out to be the “elite bottoms”, which, very much, really want to live the old way at the budget and corruption feeders. They risk being between the hammer of the supreme power and the anvil of popular anger.
In some ways, the situation was similar to the end of the USSR, and it was no coincidence that the internal party processes that had disorganized the USSR were later called the “revolution of the second secretaries”. Then the center's elite, unable to convert their party power in anything in the new conditions that had arisen during democratization, lost to the regional elites. If you look at the current elite of Russia, the situation is somewhat similar, in something - diametrically opposed to the one that developed at the time of the collapse of the USSR. Today, the higher part of the elite has something to convert their power in changing conditions, but the middle and lower link are at risk of being out of work. Will they want to become an uncomplaining victim, which the top echelon will present to the people in the form of a tough anti-corruption company, or in any other way that will allow Putin and his entourage to gain legitimacy in such a sacrifice in such a new way?

The end of Gorbachev's “perestroika” cannot be called the velvet revolution that those who dream of Putin’s non-violent removal from power would like to accomplish today. Moreover, its finale was completely at variance with the wishes of the majority of Soviet citizens and Soviet elites. The future finals of Putin’s Russia may also be unexpected. It is unlikely that this will be the “velvet revolution”. It is not excluded that the government, which is devalued in the course of the loss of popular support, legitimacy and institutional forms, ultimately will not be retained either by Putin’s conditionally liberal elite, or by that part of the security forces that will join it. Because, having come into conflict with the middle link of the elite, they will destroy that vertical, on top of which they are, thanks to which, in fact, they are “higher” in the hierarchy of power. Moreover, the leaders will not be picked up by the leaders of oppositional public opinion, who may be successful in anti-Putin propaganda, and are catalysts for exacerbating the situation, but are powerless in organizational quality in the management of the bureaucratic apparatus.

What forces can emerge from the depths of the rotten state apparatus, what people will be able to put enough fish in troubled waters to be heroes of the coming troubled time? The answer to this question is no, the situation in this regard is unpredictable. The risk corresponding to this unpredictability will gain momentum, and comparing the dynamics of oil prices with the dynamics of capital outflow from a country, we must conclude that this risk is quite comparable with the risk associated with the volatility of the global commodity market.

Alexey Vyazovsky, leading analyst FG Kalita-Finance
Dmitry Golubovsky, Independent Analyst
Author:
Originator:
http://hvylya.org
110 comments
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  1. Dmitriy69
    Dmitriy69 29 August 2012 07: 33
    +11
    Again the great predictors of verbal diarrhea broke through.
    1. tronin.maxim
      tronin.maxim 29 August 2012 07: 39
      +5
      It is understandable! In the USA they are produced in batches!
      1. Dmitriy69
        Dmitriy69 29 August 2012 07: 50
        +6
        And all are so similar ... Apparently they are producing on a conveyor, they are not wasting on an individual assembly.
        1. tronin.maxim
          tronin.maxim 29 August 2012 07: 59
          +2
          Interesting! Wait beta version or standard! Not! Most likely they are using the pro version! There is technical support! laughing
          1. esaul
            esaul 29 August 2012 08: 29
            +6
            Quote: Dmitriy69
            verbal diarrhea broke.

            Quote: tronin.maxim
            In the USA they are produced in packs.


            Good afternoon guys! There is nothing to add. All is said and witty! A plus! good
            1. Varnaga
              Varnaga 29 August 2012 09: 43
              0
              Summarizing the above tendencies, one can foresee the emergence of a double revolutionary situation in the country, reflecting the growth of tension between the people and the elite, and between different layers of the elite.

              In the twitter gallery? It's time for the afftors to get out of the hot spot or wherever they hang out.
              1. Dmitriy69
                Dmitriy69 29 August 2012 10: 28
                +2
                Guys, drew attention to how actively minus. And most importantly, in silence.
      2. Good Ukraine
        Good Ukraine 29 August 2012 16: 18
        0
        laughing
        3,14 ndos and she breaks with anger that VOVA is not for sale and has ceased to feed them.
        So he does everything right.
        And you will buy oil and will not go anywhere. Moreover, at "fabulously low prices" laughing
        1. kontrzasada20
          kontrzasada20 29 August 2012 22: 20
          +2
          That's all right, dear Kind, The main critique, if the West criticizes and gets nervous, frightens and blackmails, then we are going in the right direction, remember Borukh Yeltsin (always with a small letter) how good he was for them, how they adored him and their pack, and what about We also remember what was happening in the country. Therefore, from grateful descendants to him with ink on a marble face, soon an aspen stake will be stuck into the grave and garlic will be planted instead of flowers.
      3. starshina78
        starshina78 29 August 2012 22: 03
        +2
        When, finally, everyone stops nodding to the United States and believing that if someone writes the truth about our reality and mentions Putin and the company in the wrong light, in which it is accepted, but in the opposite, then all are enemies and they are supported by the money of the Americans. It's time to stop thinking like that and learn to think for yourself, and not listen to the nonsense that Novosti serves you on pro-state TV channels. I don’t understand one thing, that everyone so blindly believes that Putin is infallible, that he is the only one who cares for the Fatherland, and everyone who writes articles and speaks and comments in a different way, then these are all enemies and are supported by US money. This is not true ! Perhaps the time will come and the whole mass, blindly believing in the infallibility of Putin and the company, will see the light and say to themselves: "We were so naive!"
    2. old rocket man
      old rocket man 29 August 2012 10: 29
      +11
      Quote: Dmitriy69
      A new bill is being prepared prohibiting officials from having accounts and real estate abroad.

      And here is the reason for the diarrhea, and the rest is "scientific husk" for cover wassat
    3. Kite
      Kite 29 August 2012 11: 54
      +1
      To compare "analytical" materials:
      http://rusprav.org/2012/August/dush-25-8-12.html#tophttp://
      and to look for the "middle" yourself, to think ("to raise with brains").
    4. ZKBM-BUT
      ZKBM-BUT 29 August 2012 17: 03
      0
      I agree. full diarrhea. The head of the Central Bank performed on copper and sang a completely different song. indicated an outflow of capital only with the proviso - outflow to outflow is different. I find it difficult to operate with financial terms and, in simple terms, the current outflow is good. in general, we will end the year with an influx.

      the schedule is not quite clear yet. on it, the black scale is the outflow / inflow - that is, the turnover. if only it was only an outflow, then it could be attached to the topic of conversation. but it is not entirely clear, he says one thing, but shows another.
      1. Karish
        Karish 30 August 2012 07: 05
        0
        Quote: ZKBM-BUT
        I agree. full diarrhea. The head of the Central Bank performed on copper and sang a completely different song. indicated an outflow of capital only with the proviso - outflow to outflow is different. I find it difficult to operate with financial terms and, in simple terms, the current outflow is good. in general, we will end the year with an influx.

        Is capital outflow good? , We will end the year with an influx of (your words) - is that bad then?
        Or now the outflow is good, the inflow will be good. those. - badly no a priori. Whatever happens, it's all good.

        Quote: ZKBM-BUT
        I find it difficult to operate in financial terms

        People like you are calculated, people hawala
        The outflow is kind of good, but I would like to invest from overseas - this is the same good, but how to invest your money in your country is probably bad for the authorities and oligarchs
  2. Uncle Serozha
    Uncle Serozha 29 August 2012 07: 34
    +13
    Allegations that the Russian economy is entirely oil reading is already a little tired. Oil may not save Russia, but it certainly is a good help in financing science and re-equipping industry.
    The position of the author, who lasciviously predicts the next revolutionary situation in Russia (the favorite dream of all swamps), is not entirely clear, but at the same time it is completely unclear what he proposes to do in return.
    It is clear that Russia will export oil. The only question is where the proceeds from this event go. And if in the nineties they walked clearly into whose pockets, now at least part of them go to the needs of the army and the military-industrial complex.
    The news about the development and procurement of new systems, which we read here almost daily, is evidence of this.
    1. Dmitriy69
      Dmitriy69 29 August 2012 07: 54
      +5
      Why offer and do something in return? After all, revolution (read - collapse) is the goal of their employers.
      1. Kite
        Kite 29 August 2012 12: 15
        +2
        Sure! It is expensive to buy oil "the toad strangles", to wage a war for it is even more expensive!
        The conclusion is predictable: it is necessary to arrange confusion in Russia, then it will get all cheaper, spending on "experts from the economy" and "human rights activists" from their NGOs is a pocket change.
    2. klimpopov
      klimpopov 29 August 2012 09: 16
      +4
      Greetings, Uncle Seryozha, I was thinking about which article to read first, this one or the one above, and pointed to this one. The author's position is quite clear, indeed in Russia there is a problem of capital outflow abroad, which automatically becomes a trump card in the sleeve of the so-called swamp, if you look at this argument goes through all the articles of such a plan, and according to the style of writing, they are all practically a carbon copy, hysterically nervous and very spectacular allegories. Again, there is the problem of the oil needle and corruption, but we also need to look at the issue from the other side. When Putin came, no one paid for Russian oil properly, just three or four people were sitting who, for quite tangible bakshish, "allowed" to buy oil for free, now, on the contrary, oil is very expensive, there is no way to go to the west of Russia , yes, there is theft and corruption, but the fact that most of the money still goes to the state after the nineties is a big breakthrough, it's another matter whether the authorities will be able to dispose of them, or it will be like the UAE (huge glass skyscrapers and fountains and nothing else). The main scourge of Russia is the fifth column, which knowingly or not, but kills all undertakings, corruption and indifference to it. Well, something like this, albeit clumsy, but as he could.
      1. s1н7т
        s1н7т 29 August 2012 10: 45
        +3
        Ha! Overkill).
        "... this is the fifth column, which consciously or not, but kills all undertakings, with corruption and indifference ..." - we think we are writing? These are signs of state power!)))
        1. klimpopov
          klimpopov 29 August 2012 11: 14
          0
          What is wrong?

          And so, yes, I thought again, and again, I didn’t find anything, I think further ... I didn’t understand you ..
          1. nikoli25
            nikoli25 29 August 2012 19: 51
            0
            I didn't understand him either
    3. ward
      ward 29 August 2012 09: 32
      +2
      Well, here you are right ... those who wish can be convinced that the share of revenues from the sale of petroleum products is not so great ... we are all the same on the Internet ... but you need to click a button ... as for the export of capital ... Well, how would I explain ... there is such a thing as a stock exchange ... for playing on it, capitals are imported and then exported ... so if we only talk about export ... then these terrible numbers turn out ... by the way this is the only case when the state receives a gain from a simple movement of money ... plus ... Sergey sorry I missed ... I compensate ...
      1. Passing
        Passing 29 August 2012 18: 10
        +6
        Quote: ward
        Those who wish can be convinced that the share of revenues from the sale of petroleum products is not so great ... we are all the same all the same on the Internet ... but you need to click the button ...

        Persuaded! Overpowered himself, broke away from the zombie creator, and still pressed the cherished button:
        Export shares in 2011 according to customs data.
        http://www.customs.ru/index2.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=15581&Itemid


        After a simple recount:
        fuel and energy products: 70%
        metals and metal products: 9%
        chemical industry: 6,4%

        Percentage of oil and gas revenues in the budget:
        http://www.ngv.ru/about/news/news16070.aspx
        Oil and gas revenues of the federal budget of Russia in 2011 amounted to 5,6 trillion rubles. According to the press service of the Russian government, this was announced by Finance Minister Anton Siluanov during a meeting of the presidium of the supreme executive body of power. This represents about half of all budget revenues.

        If, in your opinion, this share is "not so great", then okay, continue to soar in the clouds complacently further.
    4. Nir
      Nir 29 August 2012 10: 37
      0
      Quote: Uncle Seryozha
      Allegations that the Russian economy is entirely oil reading is already a little tired.

      Well don't read wink Only from this nothing can be changed, she was oil and will remain her. If the budget of R.F. typeset from the accounting of oil prices about what in general you can write here and even more so discuss wink You are Saudi Arabia only northern. lol
      1. Good Ukraine
        Good Ukraine 29 August 2012 16: 27
        +2
        For Nir

        And who are you? - THE BREAKER.
        1. nikoli25
          nikoli25 29 August 2012 19: 54
          0
          very similar
    5. alebor
      alebor 29 August 2012 10: 40
      +7
      Uncle Seryozha, the trouble is not that oil is an aid for financing science and industry, but that every year this aid is more and more due to oil, and not other industries. And if oil prices fall, then there will be no help and everything will start to collapse. And oil reserves are not unlimited. Present-day Russia resembles a rich heir who “eats up” the inheritance he has received, and what will happen next when the “free” money runs out he does not care.
      1. ward
        ward 29 August 2012 11: 09
        +1
        The share of the oil industry in the income of 17-20% ... this is by all sources ... so of course it’s unpleasant ... but not fatal ... therefore, all screams on this subject are nothing more than a provocation of pure water ... by the way about the rest ... the total share of state revenue from the sale is 87-92% so the oligarchs do not really rob us ...
        1. Passing
          Passing 29 August 2012 18: 28
          +2
          Quote: ward
          the total share of state revenues from the sale is 87-92%, so the oligarchs do not really rob us ...

          Why are these numbers interesting? Did Abramovich's press service suggest?
          Let's count with pens:
          Oil and gas revenues of the federal budget of Russia in 2011 amounted to 5,6 trillion rubles.

          Those. divide by 30, we get 187 billion dollars
          Further, in 2011, they sold abroad fuel and energy products worth $ 362 billion.
          You want to say that the cost of oil exports is 362-187 = 175, subtracting 10% = 158bn. dollars, i.e. approximately 50 dollars per barrel ???
          Those. when oil cost 30 bucks, we drove it with a loss of 60%, and when Khodokovsky was imprisoned, and the price was 50 bucks, we sold oil at cost? I wonder where, then, from Abramovich yachts and football clubs?
  3. cypr-igor
    cypr-igor 29 August 2012 07: 54
    +1
    In my opinion, the forecast is complete nonsense! From what I read in the news (expansion of enterprises, launch of new production facilities, staff shortage, etc.) In my opinion, Russia is already boldly entering the industrial giants, and thank God!
    1. tan0472
      tan0472 29 August 2012 09: 15
      +3
      Quote: kipr-igor
      In my opinion, Russia is already boldly entering the industrial giants, and thank God!

      If Russia enters into industrial giants, it is not in consequence, but in spite of it. In my opinion, there is no global economic strategy planned for decades. IMHO.
      1. Imperialist
        Imperialist 29 August 2012 15: 41
        +1
        Well, in spite of, the Second World War won in spite of, always in spite of
  4. volcano
    volcano 29 August 2012 07: 55
    +6
    As soon as I read about the oligarchic president
    And the path of repression ...
    All ...... there is no point in reading further
    1. Sergh
      Sergh 29 August 2012 08: 58
      +8
      Quote: volkan
      there is no point in reading further

      in the form of awakening a significant part of society to civic activism ... even to increase the allowance of the security forces and the military

      I didn’t think that Substantial part, these are purchased students and a couple of hundred onlookers, and then only in Moscow, we in Novosibirsk counted them (rounded up) to a hundred people, although this hundred was almost stumbled on the square.

      But analysts and political scientists categorically do not need to raise their salaries; Although, sometimes you look at the face and it is immediately clear where and what hurts him, and maybe even hostile. Well, look at Golubovsky Dmitry Olegovich for yourself, a tear rolls, looking at him, poor fellow.
      1. volcano
        volcano 29 August 2012 10: 27
        +2
        Sergh,

        Hmmm ... the view of a man hit by a dusty bag in a field from around a corner
  5. Igarr
    Igarr 29 August 2012 07: 55
    +9
    What a crackling, empty article.
    Kind of like pheasants - frrrr, frrrrr.
    And the meaning is the same.
    In my opinion, the authors admired themselves - about how, it turns out, we can write.
    Well, yes, ".. the Chukchi is not a reader, the Chukchi is a writer."
    1. Sergh
      Sergh 29 August 2012 09: 25
      +2
      Quote: Igarr
      What a crackling, empty article.

      Yeah, here's a video, there you can clearly see how this balabol is bursting without a smoke break, and the gestures, if he wants to play the button accordion, will be torn off with his hands.

      1. Armata
        Armata 29 August 2012 10: 42
        +6
        And his eyes run like him. As psychologists say, a person who avoids a direct look when communicating either lies or hides something. And for all the time his gaze never stopped at the reporter.
  6. Irbis9
    Irbis9 29 August 2012 07: 57
    +3
    Let them dream, and we will go our own way to a brighter future))
    1. s1н7т
      s1н7т 29 August 2012 10: 48
      0
      "In my own way" and "bright future" - this has already happened. Where it led, everyone knows - one country has already collapsed. Shall we continue? laughing
  7. ZeF
    ZeF 29 August 2012 08: 05
    +8
    The State Department mongrel howled. Russia is getting up from its knees, although not as quickly as it would have liked, and it is natural that the occupiers (Anglo-Saxons) do not like it. The louder they whine, then things in Russia are getting better.
    1. esaul
      esaul 29 August 2012 09: 03
      0
      I welcome you, Oleg.
      In addition to your comment, I would again like to return to yesterday’s comment by KASYMA (on the role of Russia in world politics) and the film, which (yesterday) was published by my fellow countryman SERGE (!) About the interview with Musin.
      Everything is ribbed, everything is in place ...
      1. ZeF
        ZeF 29 August 2012 09: 51
        +1
        Good day to you Valery, a wonderful film (special thanks to Sergh). I would also like to add that a lot can be explained by N.V. Starikova "Sherche la oil." Immediately everything falls into place, and then many members of the forum will have questions where we pay, to whom and why.
  8. bairat
    bairat 29 August 2012 08: 19
    +6
    You at least piss in the eyes of all the dew of God. $ 70 billion leaves the country no one knows where - everything is fine, the military-industrial complex is unfastened and okay. They also consider themselves patriots, they themselves seem to be sucking off budget feeders.
    1. Igarr
      Igarr 29 August 2012 08: 26
      +1
      Ayrat, can you believe that in a totalitarian, press hut, the leader does not know where the money goes?
      He knows, he knows perfectly.
      Know, we have such a planid - would live ......... dear.
      Born in Russia - you can't live peacefully.
      1. bairat
        bairat 29 August 2012 08: 29
        +1
        Well, the leader knows that, I have no doubt.
    2. Trance
      Trance 29 August 2012 08: 29
      +10
      As for social policy, the state apparatus headed by Putin embarked on a path of repression aimed at suppressing an independent civil society, which has so far failed to find worthy leaders capable of consolidating and systematizing its protest, channeling it into a constructive channel of nonviolent regime change.

      There is a worthy leader! Only he is the President of Belarus crying crying crying
      And the whole official opposition, pro-Western lackeys, whose task is to finish Russia before the end.
    3. Rezun
      Rezun 29 August 2012 08: 52
      +3
      And in the "zero" abroad and twenty It took a month ... Look at the dynamics in time. In my opinion, progress is coming - no one gave us a magic wand.
    4. volcano
      volcano 29 August 2012 09: 47
      +4
      Quote: bairat
      They also consider themselves patriots, they themselves seem to be sucking off budget feeders.


      Yeah ... and the military and the police ... and the doctors .... and the teachers

      Oh, we are such nits ........ we steal budget money.

      I will gladly receive a salary from you ...

      Suck on the suction so to speak laughing
  9. Ascetic
    Ascetic 29 August 2012 08: 30
    +9
    [Quote] an attempt to compensate for the rise in prices by increasing social benefits will further increase the rate of inflation and provoke an acceleration of capital outflows, which will lead to higher interest rates, deterioration of lending and negatively affect business activity. An attempt in this situation to balance the budget with the traditional devaluation of the ruble in such cases will support the producer and the financial sector, but for the population the situation will only worsen.


    Analysts work out their foreign submission. We'll have to prove again that inflation и capital outflow not at all a consequence as they write in politics Putinism and to be deceived by a person is to willingly believe in the above quote. So, repost the comment to the article on VO The financial revolution in Chinese August 15th

    The Central Bank of the Russian Federation is forced to buy up foreign exchange earnings for rubles. The latter are flooding the economy, provoking internal inflation. And the bought up dollars must be kept in some liquid form. so they are sent back to the States in the form of a loan from the US government. Thus, there are no consequences of the emission for America itself. In the worst case, the foreign goods bought for the issue were covered by the money returned. The trick, however, is that not all money is returned. Because the countries are beginning to trade among themselves in dollars (this is a reserve currency!), To lend to each other (even inside the country to issue dollar loans to their purely domestic entities). That is, foreign currency covers part of the domestic trade. This means that the domestic currency will inevitably inflate.
    To cope with this, the government of such a country needs tighten the tax system taking extra rubles from the economy, limit domestic ruble investments and even money supply (targeting inflation in monetary ways), as well as encourage the export of capital, to the extent of turning a blind eye at his frankly criminal nature. You see, this is all in the Russian Federation, isn't it? And this is all just a consequence of the imbalance in the trade balance and incompleteness of foreign exchange suverinet... The question is who appropriates all the pluses that this Someone has as the inverse part of the equation of all our minuses. Further..
  1. Ascetic
    Ascetic 29 August 2012 08: 33
    +4
    The most The main advantage is the import of inflation. The printed $ 500 billion went abroad, and in return goods or services arrived in the States. On the domestic market, there is less money and more goods, which should have caused deflation in general. But it is not there, but there is little inflation. That is, someone redistributed this deflationary income in their favor, pouring in another $ 1 trillion. already ($ 500 billion refunding the bills sent abroad and plus another $ 500 yards covering the increased volume of imported goods in the domestic market). But whoever bought, say, oil for these $ 500 yards, is inflating in a galloping manner instead of America. The Central Bank of this country buys up foreign exchange earnings for rubles - there are more rubles in the economy, and less goods (including due to their export). Which leads to inflation "for yourself and for that guy"
    And under deflation new money is created. whether the banking system, or the Fed is printed. All through debt, of course. But only before you give someone a loan, the amount to your beloved is drawn into the account. You lend something, but this is only a mechanism for the redistribution of wealth. That was $ 1000 per 1000 units. goods and services. We draw another $ 200 for ourselves, but for 100 of them we buy oil from the Arab, and another 100 for jeans from the Chinese. There was still enough money left: 1200 + 200-200 = 1000, while goods on the domestic market increased 1000 + 200 = 1200. Deflation? There it was! We draw ourselves another $ 200 and restore balance. There is no inflation or deflation, but the nominal wealth is now $ 1400 (1000 + 200 + 200) of which 400 owe me. But just now nobody owed me anything, did it? So there you go. Moreover, the money is fake, and the debt is real, as well as the assets that provide it. And if someone does not cope with their business, then such a business will go to me. So roughly and a bubble of virtual wealth in the States and this mechanism is redistributed within the country in favor of an overgrown octopus of the financial system.
    1. Ascetic
      Ascetic 29 August 2012 08: 37
      +6
      But what about the $ 200 sent abroad? They were bought by the corresponding central banks for dinars and for yuan, which splashed out on the domestic markets, from which part of the goods left. That is, the situation is completely opposite: there were 900 commodity units per 1100 yuan-ruble rubles - inflation. AND national wealth is redistributed from a weakening financial system to owners of export-oriented real assets. On the natural annuity from the mineral sector, this is usually the state and its sovereign pillbox funds, as the main beneficiary due to the exploitation of law and institutions. In a fast-growing export-oriented commodity economy (such as Asian tigers), this is still a state, but already as a major investor in the real sector of production. And the inevitable growth of the public sector due to such distortions will inevitably lead to the loss of competitiveness of the economy. In order to withdraw excessive money supply, the state is also forced to tighten fiscal tax and customs policies, which again exacerbates the situation. And most importantly, rates rise after inflation, and it turns out that the chickens are not pecking money, and that the loan is not pulled and production in the country is degrading, and whoever took credit, because of the high cost of capital, the prime cost is prohibitive. And so on, there are a lot of things, some unpleasant consequences. But competitiveness is akin to wealth - it does not disappear, but flows from one subject to another. In this case, in the direction of the emission center, i.e. at the Fed and its owners
      1. esaul
        esaul 29 August 2012 09: 08
        +3
        Ascetic,

        Stanislav, I welcome with increasing respect, buddy! hi Comment is power! Do not interrupt! ... good good drinks laughing
      2. tan0472
        tan0472 29 August 2012 09: 24
        +4
        Stanislav. And how to prevent the purchase of real values ​​(mines, factories) for American pieces of paper? (West)
  • Filer
    Filer 29 August 2012 08: 30
    +3
    Such a gloomy article, they say, nothing shines for you. Custom-made material in my opinion.
  • bairat
    bairat 29 August 2012 08: 41
    +1
    Quote: Ascetic
    And the bought up dollars must be kept in some liquid form. so they are sent back to the States in the form of a loan from the US government.

    You yourself are not entitled to a handout from behind a hillock for this offer?
    1. Ascetic
      Ascetic 29 August 2012 09: 04
      +5
      Quote: bairat
      You yourself are not entitled to a handout from behind a hillock for this offer?


      Liquidity (from Latin liquidus - liquid, flowing over) is an economic term that denotes the ability of assets to be quickly sold at a price close to the market price. Liquid - convertible into money. Usually distinguish between highly liquid, low liquid and illiquid values ​​(assets). The easier and faster you can get the full value of an asset, the more liquid it is. For a product, liquidity will correspond to the speed of its sale at a nominal price.

      From wiki
      Since the Central Bank of Russia (which is independent of the state) itself takes dollars from the FRS at a loan interest of somewhere 4%, then, willy-nilly, you will have to send currency to where this liquidity is highest, i.e. back to the Fed. And to regulate all these flows, there is the IMF and the World Bank, which are a financial instrument for the globalization of the world economy, i.e. transition of national economies under control a single capital center, in hand world government,
      All states of the world suffer from such a banking system, which destroys the real sector of the economy, protecting the interests speculative financial capital.
      Protecting the interests of the world government, the IMF is transferring the central banks of the victim countries to work in the "currency board" mode (currency board). In this mode the issue of the national monetary unit is permitted only in an amount equal to the increment in the foreign exchange reserves of the Central Bank of the country. This means that not the volume of the domestic market, but only the volume of exports (i.e., the sale of goods and services on the world market and, as a rule, for the dollar) ensures the growth of gold and foreign exchange reserves (gold and foreign exchange reserves) and permission to issue an equivalent volume of its currency. What provides dollarization of the economy of a seemingly sovereign state.

      Few in the world understand this problem, and for sure the participants of color revolutions, deceived by the thrown slogans of freedom, democracy, and the fight against corruption, do not think about it.
      1. bairat
        bairat 29 August 2012 09: 13
        0
        Lots of links and common words. But in essence the proposal: do you agree with the existing system?
      2. Ascetic
        Ascetic 29 August 2012 09: 32
        +5
        Now about PutinismLast week I wrote abstracts for an article on this matter in the opinion section, but I can't resist breaking it down into comments as an answer to the liberals). Putin made the only correct move in this situation, he Vnesheconombank made the Central Bank's backup. , and the backup of Sberbank (the subsidiary of the Central Bank, which is led by the protege of Chubais and therefore the Rockefeller group Gref), Putin made VTB, which is constantly being attacked by the Kudrin economists-analysts of whom the authors of this article are. Thanks to this, in the mid-2000s, we repaid our debt to the IMF and money appeared for long-term investments, including in the military-industrial complex, military salaries, for example, an increase in pensions and benefits. Therefore, Putin is so hated that he does not want to dance to their tune. They need a president who will ensure the permissiveness of banks, the continuation of the export of capital, a race in prices, the inaccessibility of loans for development, debt bondage, the seizure and exploitation of Russia's richest natural resources, the total poverty of millions people in billions of states of individuals. They are interested in growing unemployment, alcoholism, moronization and extinction of the population of Russia. They desperately need the weakening and disintegration of Russia. Then, kneeling in front of the West, each separately - Bashkiria, Muscovy, Tatarstan, Chechnya, Udmurtia, etc., etc., will beg for loans, giving away their intellect, labor force, natural resources, mother land for empty dollar bills , your human dignity. This scenario is fatal for Russia. And it is definitely unacceptable to its citizens.
        Another thing is that, judging by his recent moves (accession to the WTO, the Sechin privatization of state monopolies de jure de facto remaining under the control of the same state) is going to butt on their field and according to their rules using the crisis of their speculative model of loan interest, including relying on the pillow of the Stabilization Fund, which he also divided into two parts - the Reserve Fund remained with the Central Bank to regulate emissions within the framework of monetary policy and the National Welfare Fund subordinate to the government, which will compensate in case of a prolonged decline in the price of oil and speculators' attempts to devalue the ruble as in 1998. So let's see ..
        1. Igarr
          Igarr 29 August 2012 09: 43
          +1
          God forbid, Stanislav, God forbid, that everything was so.
          "..but take off on their field and according to their rules .."
          I hope.
        2. Ascetic
          Ascetic 29 August 2012 09: 53
          +3
          the president of the country also creates his own governing bodies, which are in complex interaction with the government of the Russian Federation. He created a Commission on the Fuel and Energy Complex, of which he himself became chairman, and recently the President also created a Commission, which was briefly named "Commission of 11 decrees". She must keep track of how the presidential election promises regarding the country's socio-economic development. The commission has been given broad powers and is also chaired by the president himself.
          If there are many liberals in Medvedev's government (which, perhaps, should reassure the West), then the presidential commission gathers experts who know their business, who by definition belong to the number of statesmen. These are not only supervisory authorities, but, apparently, a personnel reserve, which can urgently required in a certain situation.
          Putin and his own Economic Council created from among prominent scientists and economists, and also headed by himself. Generally speaking, one cannot expect anything useful from modern economists, servants of their bourgeois pseudoscience. Moreover, from the liberals who make up the backbone of the new council. But, apparently, Putin knew the principle of the work of judges: it is impossible to challenge the opinion of an expert, but you can oppose the opinion of another expert. So, I think, he will now be able to resist the dictates of liberal economists under the government, relying on the opinion of the liberals - members of his Economic Council.
          Conclusion: there are liberal figures in the cabinet of ministers who, give them free rein, will destroy the entire power vertical. And a parallel government should keep an eye on these figures, as a rule, cut off from life, and, if necessary, correct their erroneous decisions... But to do it delicately without interfering directly with the operational activities of the cabinet of ministers.
          As for the Ministry of Defense and other security agencies, as well as the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, according to the Constitution, they are subordinate to the President.
          1. Ascetic
            Ascetic 29 August 2012 10: 03
            +4
            Putin launched a mechanism of partial national revival, or liberation. But the management system is such that if one link, the president, for example, gets out of American control, it does not change. Even if Putin can go against the Americans, and he talked about it, then he cannot go against the elite of his country. The strength of the Americans in Russia lies in the fact that in 20 years the Russian elites became American... In reality, the country is run by Russian non-national elites (which ones? Guess at once)
            During two presidential terms, Putin partially took over the control of national processes. There was a rise, thanks to this there was a tenfold increase in salaries, the budget of the Russian Federation grew many times over. But when the Americans banned Putin from running for president for a third term, in fact, they again intercepted the initiative of ruling Russia. And for four whole years, our national forces were retreating on all fronts under American pressure. For example, who are the organizers of the rallies on Bolotnaya Square? More than half are official US grantees. and people with dual citizenship.
            Today Putin's main task - of course, on the basis of popular support, negotiate with the elites, and by and large, replace them... When he talks about modernization and changing the type of economy, he is actually talking about the mechanism for transforming elites into a national type.
            Yes, Putin is persistent seeks to restore the sovereignty of Russia, andoh he can't openly break the state structure of our country, established by the American victorious, no one in the world can afford this, here the punishment will follow immediately.(not so much by military means as by an economic blockade) He is looking for workarounds and, like a Chekist, acts mostly not openly, but using those holes in this device that the victors in a hurry left in him. Hence the parallel management structures and other approaches.
            1. Ascetic
              Ascetic 29 August 2012 10: 20
              +2
              Describing all of Putin's methods of circumventing the traps that Americans have created in Russia since 1991 would be like writing a book. I will give only historical analogies
              It is known from history that the creation by the head of state of a parallel government was usually aimed at changing the social order. Ivan the Terrible did not disperse the Boyar Duma, which interfered with his reform plans, but divided the country into Zemshchina, ruled by the Duma, and subordinate directly to the Tsar Oprichnina, creating a kind of spiritual knightly order in it. Peter I, too, did not disperse the boyars, but put senators and officials with incomprehensible names like General Feldzheichmeister next to them. And power quietly passed to the new government structures, and the last boyar quietly died during the reign of Elizabeth Petrovna. Probably, the creation of a "parallel government" by the president promises big changes for the country.
              This is, in brief, how the current situation regarding Putin is seen based on facts and not on unsubstantiated cries about anti-people regime и bloody gebnya
              Yes, I will repeat to supporters of radical measures - do not forget that the Russian economy is 80 percent owned by private individuals (and largely by foreigners)Such a legacy went to Putin, and alas, property cannot be taken away from foreigners by legal means. And in order to partially correct this, Sechin's privatization was conceived (again the collapse of the country and the transfer of power to the oligarchs is heard from all sides). for the gift of the Soviet enterprises they inherited everything possible and the money received to transfer abroad. For them, Russia is just a place where they make money, they are indifferent to the fate of the country. It would be a crime to use state money received from taxes on workers to enrich private traders who are unable to produce the latest products that are competitive on world markets. Even road construction, which creates advantages for some private owners to the detriment of others, would generate many accusations of lobbying. therefore the state helps only those domestic producers who are capable of producing completely modern products(again, through long-term loans from VEB and VTB). The restoration of shipbuilding, aircraft construction, space industry, etc. is proceeding slower than we would like. In addition, due to the above mechanism of money emission, the presence of significant gold reserves provides an opportunity to have sufficient money supply in circulation. To spend reserves means to reduce the volume of this mass, which would have a dramatic negative effect on all spheres of Russia's life.
            2. tan0472
              tan0472 29 August 2012 15: 32
              +1
              Quote: Ascetic
              punishment will follow immediately. (not so much by military means as by economic blockade)

              Why are Russia afraid of the blockade? Russia has everything it needs. (you can do without bananas). Why won't Putin nationalize? (strategic mines-enterprises) He is looking for workarounds Walking roundabout ways - you can't catch up with the enemy.
              1. Ascetic
                Ascetic 30 August 2012 11: 00
                +2
                Quote: tan0472
                Why are Russia afraid of the blockade? Russia has everything it needs. (you can do without bananas).


                Without bananas, but for example without vegetables and fruits? This is the USSR, with the CMEA countries and the socialist camp built into its economy, we could not be afraid of any blockades and discriminatory sanctions. Azerbaijan alone FULLY covered the needs of our northern and eastern regions in vegetables and fruits, and when, before the Moscow Olympics, cooperators-participants (the same peasants in fact) were allowed to sell their vegetables in the markets of Moscow and other large cities, a greenhouse boom began there, right up to that there was a division into districts - some, let's say, are being taken to Moscow, others, for example, to Krasnoyarsk. And now, with a dilapidated industrial and food base and the loss of economic ties, it will be very difficult.
        3. dmb
          dmb 29 August 2012 11: 35
          +1
          As I understand it, you are answering bairat's question that you do not agree. Then I really would like to hear answers to the following questions. Why are VTB and Vnesheconombank better than the Central Bank and Sberbank? Since when did Dubinin, a member of VTB's Supervisory Board, become a greater statesman than Gref? From which it follows that the latter was assigned to Sberbank by Chubais, and not by Putin, and why is Chubais engaged in the placement of personnel in the country where Putin is President? Why it was necessary to leave in the hands of the Central Bank. subordinate to the Rockefeller clan Reserve Fund? Something like that. At the same time, I would like to hear from Putin himself. what should be the result of his "butting"?
          1. Ascetic
            Ascetic 29 August 2012 13: 56
            +4
            Quote: dmb
            Why are VTB and Vnesheconombank better than the Central Bank and Sberbank?


            VEB gives long-term loans for 5-10 years. This is what the Central Bank did not want to do, or rather, that the banking mafia did not allow it.
            VTB is actively investing in business, invests in the real economy. He even extended a helping hand to Ukraine by providing a loan of $ 2 billion (and without any reform conditions, not like the IMF does). This activity is prohibited by "independent" banks.
            VTB also struck an alternative way to wire money. Previously, the Swedes, Finns and Balts used to blackmail us, because interbank transactions went through them. Now VTB has bought out several small banks in Europe and settlements go through them. (A kind of Nordic stream in the financial sector) Why are they so furious now in the Baltic over the Russian language? because there is nothing to blackmail. Nothing at all.
            in 2013 will start working in the Russian Federation Rosfinagentstvo, which can be used in the interests of economic development and part of the gold and foreign exchange reserves of the Central Bank.

            Quote: dmb
            Why it was necessary to leave in the hands of the Central Bank. Rockefeller Subordinate Clan Reserve Fund?

            In the book of N. Starikov "Nationalization of the ruble. The path to freedom of Russia" (M. et al., "Peter", 2011). there are answers to these questions. Google, read
            You can also go here
            My webpage
            My webpage
            1. sergo0000
              sergo0000 29 August 2012 17: 27
              +1
              Ascetic,
              Thank you Stanislav for the excellent and detailed information!
              Let's hope that the victory will be ours! smile
  • segamegament
    segamegament 29 August 2012 09: 03
    +1
    How can a country that has no money live better than a country that has this money?
  • baltika-18
    baltika-18 29 August 2012 09: 42
    +1
    The analysis is, in principle, a "C". It is not entirely possible to agree. Let's see to whom the shares of the privatized companies will be transferred, then it will be possible to draw conclusions about where the authorities will lead us further.
  • Andrey64
    Andrey64 29 August 2012 09: 54
    +2
    I just want all these ANALITEGS to give a pendel in the ass ... and let them roll sausage to the west ...
  • 8 company
    8 company 29 August 2012 10: 07
    +4
    The article was written by a frostbitten liberal. It is not for nothing that this category today, in close association with the frostbitten Stalinists, is actively and in unison whining about the imminent end of Russia. Dogs bark - the caravan is coming.
  • vezunchik
    vezunchik 29 August 2012 10: 10
    +3
    good article. Everything is correct and emotions are not needed here. Taking power is not all. You need to be able to use it effectively. And so ... The outflow of capital - it must be stopped, but is it necessary for the top ?????
  • Isk1984
    Isk1984 29 August 2012 10: 22
    +3
    From most comments, I understood that myopia penetrated many bright minds, and so what we have: Uncontrolled Central Bank authorities and nothing can be done with it, so we don’t have political will .... Chubais, Koch, Aven cannot be touched like that the proteges of the Rothschilds and the Rockefellers, and their landing an occasion to the third world war?
    Thus, we have already lost everything that is possible since we can’t do anything with the finals in our house ....
    I remember the Tagilians threatened to come and crush the marsh, well, let them joke around in Moscow and demolish the Central Bank building ...
    Just so we are on the eve of the grand nix in world geopolitics, and drastic measures to restore the independence of finasovoy relevant than ever ... I think Vladimir Vladimirovich can bring order to a couple of days, and they fear it is not washed away unless all FSO not purchased with potrahami and is financed from the State Department .... It's just that time is running out and the money could have been for the same foreign exchange profit not to invest in the US government bonds, but to buy modern technologies, machine tools and implement (the experience of the first five-year plans) ..... well, am I wrong ..... The ascetic wrote a lot, but I will repeat once again, do not be short-sighted, otherwise this is also work for the same Rothschilds ...
    1. ward
      ward 29 August 2012 10: 35
      +1
      But don’t you look what happens ... Putin said there will be no 37 of the year .. but what else if everyone steals ... in the same Singapore how many people were shot ... or in China ... here we go, we’ll take small steps ... they want to pass a law for officials on property abroad ... and these are very far-reaching consequences ... firstly, nowhere to run ... secondly, nothing to grab ...
      1. Roman Dmitriev
        Roman Dmitriev 29 August 2012 11: 40
        +2
        ward, a lot of laws can be adopted, only there will be little sense from them if you do not monitor their implementation. And this is exactly what is happening here.
      2. alex pav
        alex pav 29 August 2012 15: 42
        0
        And who can say something about the recent information about the new law on the Central Bank?
    2. Ascetic
      Ascetic 29 August 2012 14: 18
      +4
      Quote: Isk1984
      Thus, we have already lost everything that is possible since we can’t do anything with the finals in our house ....


      The situation now is
      “We lost the 40-year war, which for some reason is called the“ cold ”war. And today our state apparatus is partially subordinate to the winner, that is, America. Furthermore, our state is half the occupation mechanism created in 1991 by the Americans. We pay tribute to them, and they have complete control over us.

      State Duma Deputy Evgeny Fedorov
      From this initial setting, Fedorov draws conclusions in terms of finance: The winners are assigned to the defeated Russia
      1) have a Central Bank, independent of the government and not subordinate to it (it is subject to New York judicial jurisdiction, that is, it can sue the Russian government in New York);
      2) to issue money into circulation not on behalf of the state, but on behalf of the Central Bank (with inscriptions on Russian banknotes: "Ticket of the Bank of Russia", but "state treasury notes", as it was in the USSR);
      3) to issue into circulation not so much rubles as is needed for the development of the country, but as much as we have in our gold and foreign exchange reserves. If the country needs, say, to print another 1 billion rubles, this can be done only by increasing the gold and foreign currency reserves by the corresponding amount in dollars (about 30 million), and for this it is necessary to sell to the States for these unsecured pieces of paper the corresponding amount of real goods;
      4) consequently, every Russian must pay two taxes: one - to the Russian budget, and the other - in the same amount - to the American one this amounts to $ 400 billion per year. (For more details, see the book by the writer Nikolai Starikov, Nationalization of the Ruble. The Way to Freedom of Russia.) And this money goes to the inflation mechanism because it is withdrawn from the economy.
      5) all private business in Russia, except for small ones, is required to register in a foreign jurisdiction and be controlled by the United States. A Russian businessman is obliged to go to Gibraltar, Cyprus or London and transfer property there. A businessman who does not comply with this condition will not be able to have normal relations with banks.

      And based on these conditions, let's assess the activities of Putin and his measures, which I have outlined above. What to explain in the second round?
  • bairat
    bairat 29 August 2012 10: 55
    +2
    Quote: Ascetic
    They need a president who will ensure the permissiveness of banks, the continuation of the export of capital, a race in prices, the inaccessibility of loans for development, debt bondage, the seizure and exploitation of Russia's richest natural resources, the total poverty of millions of people with billions of dollars of fortunes of individuals

    So it seems that everything is so, what does he not suit them with?
  • kuzmich
    kuzmich 29 August 2012 10: 58
    +3
    Russia will be saved by the Russian people, it happened according to our kind.
  • alebor
    alebor 29 August 2012 11: 00
    +3
    Quite a strange phrase from the article: "In Russia, one can rather speak of society as supporters of an open society and the state of the rule of law, and at traditionalists," sovereigns ", whose ranks are very variegated, but united by rejection of the Western experience of building society and the state, and the West as a whole. " - It turns out that the liberals are supporters of the rule of law, but the sovereigns are not? Liberals are in favor of an open (why?) Society, while the sovereigns want to live in "Pre-Petrine Rus" and are against progress. In my opinion, the main dividing line between the sovereigns and liberals is that for the former, the interests of their people and their country are at the forefront, and for the latter, “liberal” ideals and “universal” values ​​(like the official registration of homosexual unions).
    At the very beginning of the XNUMXth century, the main liberals in Russia were the Bolsheviks and Socialist-Revolutionaries. The current "liberals" are their direct descendants who have changed their political orientation and ideology).
    It is very interesting to note that the "liberals" in their significant number consist of representatives of non-indigenous peoples and nat. minorities that have no historical roots in the country, and "sovereigns", as a rule, are represented by nat. most and other indigenous peoples. I think this is no coincidence. To whom what is beneficial, he supports.
  • Vanek
    Vanek 29 August 2012 11: 22
    0
    Oil will not save Russia.

    Yes, and no other ice will be.
  • wulf66
    wulf66 29 August 2012 11: 38
    -2
    The aftors apparently threw some money from the State Department, so they work out squealing.
  • bairat
    bairat 29 August 2012 11: 46
    +1
    Quote: Ascetic
    attempts by speculators to devalue the ruble as in 1998

    In 98, our industry revived and started working, the production where I work has increased production output several times. Because import has risen in price if you don't know. But all good things come to an end, since then the ruble has stood at ~ 30 rubles / $, prices are growing, and the ratio of the ruble to the dollar does not change, we again lose to imports in price. Permanent soft devaluation is necessary for the economy, because of this, the Chinese constantly gnaw at the amers and the IMF, they demand the strengthening of the yuan. And we are all proud of "stability".
  • keylogger
    keylogger 29 August 2012 12: 32
    +1
    An idiotic article, like the so-called. analytics
    Why publish such a crap here ??
  • click80
    click80 29 August 2012 12: 55
    +1
    Greetings to all.
    After reading the first paragraph of the article, it became clear that this article has a clear swamp-colored bias. I didn’t even read further.
  • Patriot
    Patriot 29 August 2012 13: 32
    -1
    I do not know what kind of swamp-colored slope you have seen here ....
    On this topic, who is interested there is such a reflection on the definition of a real collapse of GDP in the event of a significant fall in oil prices.
    http://dr-mart.livejournal.com/738630.html,
    http://dr-mart.livejournal.com/739300.html"
    Read it. The guys are not stupid to think and explain their thoughts on their fingers.


    And by the way, and the news of the day !!!!

    http://www.gazeta.ru/politics/news/2012/08/29/n_2505289.shtml

    Independent: EP will punish critics of power on the Internet by amending the libel law
    "United Russia" is preparing amendments to the law on libel, they will punish critics of power on the Internet, writes Nezavisimaya Gazeta.

    “The Kremlin is concerned about the spread of harsh but unproven criticism of the authorities on the network. Such statements are also made by journalists who, on the pages of their media, are forced to adhere to the law, and on the Internet they are crossing the boundaries of what is permitted, ”a source close to the presidential administration told the newspaper.

    Meanwhile, in the Duma, the publication was informed that the question is wider. According to the deputy speaker of the State Duma and member of the lower house committee on culture, Sergei Zheleznyak, the issue will be resolved "through amendments to the legislation that will allow the identification of those who, under the guise of anonymity, commit crimes on the network."

    “If a citizen names a specific party or a specific person, then he can be charged. For example, if he mentions the “party of crooks and thieves” and says what structure he has in mind. The Internet should not remain a zone of lawlessness. We are now doing this work, ”said Zheleznyak. "Newspaper.Ru"

    In general, I state the fact that the country is moving towards even greater (than in the totalitarian USSR) totalitarianism and complete backwardness of freedom of speech and democracy and all the rest of the bullshit that we were seduced and for which we exchanged our country
    1. tan0472
      tan0472 29 August 2012 15: 37
      +1
      Quote: Patriot
      In general, I state the fact that the country is moving towards even greater (than in the totalitarian USSR) totalitarianism and complete backwardness of freedom of speech and democracy and all the rest of the bullshit that we were seduced and for which we exchanged our country

      I'm not an expert, so tell me why the laws in Russia are stricter than American or English. (at least in relation to the Internet)
    2. Imperialist
      Imperialist 29 August 2012 16: 25
      0
      Nezavisimaya gazeta writes a lot of things, let's recall the recent stuffing about Putin's National Guard,

      The main problem with your liberals is that you have completely lost touch with reality.
  • Patriot
    Patriot 29 August 2012 14: 13
    +1
    In general, it is very similar to the dying convulsions of the current occupying comprador regime.
    But as they say, It's too late. Putin's gang had more than 10 years to revive the country. Instead, he and his fellow oligarchs stuffed their pockets with money and took them abroad.
    And, the upcoming $ 40-60 per barrel of oil will finally knock this thieves' gang out of the Kremlin.
    1. Imperialist
      Imperialist 29 August 2012 16: 20
      +2
      In 2009 they did not knock out and now they will not knock out.

      If the global economic crisis starts, then everyone will feel bad, not only Russia.
      1. Imperialist
        Imperialist 29 August 2012 16: 36
        0
        And who will evaluate whether the country has revived or not, liberals and their western masters?
      2. nycsson
        nycsson 29 August 2012 19: 03
        +2
        Quote: Imperialist
        If the global economic crisis starts, then everyone will feel bad, not only Russia.

        And here you are wrong! Russia, with its raw materials economy, will be especially bad, as purchases of raw materials will fall, as well as purchase prices!
    2. nycsson
      nycsson 29 August 2012 19: 01
      0
      Quote: Patriot
      And, the upcoming $ 40-60 per barrel of oil will finally knock this thieves' gang out of the Kremlin.

      That's for sure! And if we also assume certain problems with the export of gas, then the picture is not at all rosy!
  • Isk1984
    Isk1984 29 August 2012 14: 18
    +1
    We all piz..ts not only that the ball is ruled by an unworthy junta, that there is no morality in the country, but only "values" are held in high esteem with big zeros, now this mosquito will also shut up their mouths, but the USSR was paradise in everything, and HELL it turns out to be really close ... not to end here all 17 years, everything goes to this, as here some good, such "good" things do not end here, 20 years of idiocy in power and outright destruction of the country can no longer be endured, because on the eve of a big war and the final breakdown of dissent, and we have the main problem of criticizing the authorities ... Yes, we are tied to imports, we are losing this race ... The authorities really do not want to understand their people ...
    1. Imperialist
      Imperialist 29 August 2012 16: 23
      0
      Say bluntly "don't stop us from lying"
  • Patriot
    Patriot 29 August 2012 14: 18
    +1
    Quote: Company 8
    8 company (2) Today, 10:07 ↓ 1
    The article was written by a frostbitten liberal. It is not for nothing that this category today, in close association with the frostbitten Stalinists, is actively and in unison whining about the imminent end of Russia. Dogs bark - the caravan is coming.



    Respected.

    It seems to me that you misunderstood. This is not about the imminent end of RUSSIA, but the imminent end of the current gang of Putin and his friends oligarchs. And, from their end, everyone will only get BETTER !!!
    1. Imperialist
      Imperialist 29 August 2012 16: 21
      0
      And who will replace Putin?
  • Melchakov
    Melchakov 29 August 2012 14: 46
    0
    Only a chemical attack on the US West Coast will save us, some "Forgotten Army" will take responsibility.
  • Imperialist
    Imperialist 29 August 2012 15: 59
    0
    Capital flight is the favorite mantra of liberals.

    1. Capital outflows are present in all countries where there is a large trade surplus, for example, China and Germany; in each of these countries, capital outflows exceed Russian outflows.

    2. Impossible is such a gigantic trade surplus that Russia has only to spend in Russia

    3. The outflow of capital is not only the withdrawal of capital to some offshore, it is also foreign investment, for example, Rosneft bought a refinery in Europe, this is also an outflow of capital.

    http://www.warandpeace.ru/ru/news/view/72396/

    4. Capital inflows are not always direct investments, for example, in industry, it can be the purchase of assets or the collection of debts, do you want foreign ones to buy up all Russian assets?

    Do you want your state and private owners to collect debts from Western banks?

    Capital inflow is not automatically good. Capital outflow is not automatically bad.
  • kush62
    kush62 29 August 2012 16: 15
    +2
    The chef is all gone! As already tired of whining.
  • Rossmk
    Rossmk 29 August 2012 16: 37
    0
    Again kipish is suggested by all sorts of "experts"
  • Imperialist
    Imperialist 29 August 2012 16: 43
    0
    In general, you need to understand what Hwilya is.

    Very depressed Ukrainian political scientists work in Khvila, Ukraine has fucked up all the Soviet legacy and has no prospects, and they understand this.

    These political scientists are trying to kill everyone that Russia is doomed just like Ukraine.

    Well this is not at all true.

    Any person who can read knows that Russia has the largest energy potential in the world, and everyone sees that the sources of primary energy are becoming less and less and demand is growing despite any crises.
    It is clear that if Russia is not betrayed by its own people, it will become the richest country in the world with the highest paying demand in the world.
    Additionally, Russia is integrating neighboring states into a joint economic space.
    But what when countries start falling away from the European Union?
    I think the time will come when the Finns will want to enter into an economic union with Russia.
    1. Concept1
      Concept1 29 August 2012 17: 22
      0
      I think the time will come when the Finns will want to enter into an economic union with Russia.
      Not only Finns will come !!!
    2. Passing
      Passing 29 August 2012 21: 35
      +1
      Quote: Imperialist
      will become the richest country in the world with the largest solvent demand in the world.

      In terms of oil reserves per capita, we are somewhere in the 25th place. So to be the first in the world in "wealth" we no longer shine.
      In addition, the idea that trading in raw materials can become richer than the processor of raw materials into goods and services, this is generally utter nonsense. No matter how much raw materials cost, you will still buy imported goods at a price that includes this cost. Is this banal arithmetic incomprehensible?
      In addition, oil will begin to run out in thirty to fifty years, and then all that will remain is to hang himself.
      1. Imperialist
        Imperialist 30 August 2012 05: 39
        0
        You do not understand the fact that to produce and just live in these states becomes all unprofitable because of the rise in prices for any type of energy.

        Oil in Russia as a whole is also the most simply not announced at every coal.

        And then there is gas, nuclear power, and in Russia now they build the most power units and the most modern ones.

        Russia has the largest energy potential and energy export in the world.

        I am not saying that someone should sit in Russia and have nothing to do, I say that the framework conditions for production are the best where cheap energy is, and this is the foundation of any production.
        1. Passing
          Passing 30 August 2012 13: 23
          0
          Quote: Imperialist
          living in these states is becoming increasingly unprofitable due to rising prices for any type of energy.

          If we do not have our own production, then it will be even worse for us. You cannot live consuming oil, you need goods. Therefore, you will buy at the price indicated by the manufacturer. As a result, the manufacturer emerges from the crisis, and you choke on economic problems.
          Quote: Imperialist
          where there is cheap energy and this is the foundation of any production.

          A good idea, only our government stubbornly destroys our only concrete advantage by joining the WTO. Let me remind you that one of the key requirements of this organization is to raise energy prices to the world level.
  • Magadan
    Magadan 29 August 2012 17: 24
    +1
    Quote: volkan
    As soon as I read about the oligarchic president
    And the path of repression ...

    All sorts of clever verbiage, these philosophical economists love passion. For me, the system is called as it may: the communist, oligarchic, cannibalist-dictatorial ..... if only the essence was not a market-economic Ala-Gaidar model.
    Well, what can these guys say? Well, if Russia grunts directly because of Putin’s mistakes, then we can believe it. And even then, even if there is a crisis of some kind, this is not the first time for us. And the problems with bureaucrats-bureaucrats are known to everyone. And the fact that the orange robots persuade these problems in every way is even good. It's time to put the bureaucrats in place, this is a fact. Only here revolutions in order to put the bureaucrats in place - then they bald horseradish
  • Patriot
    Patriot 29 August 2012 17: 46
    +1
    [quote = Imperialist] Imperialist (3)
    And who will replace Putin?


    You do not worry. Russia is certainly not China. We do not have 1,5 billion people, but it seems to me that out of 142 million people you can easily find a decent person. And, this person should immediately nationalize the oil and gas, and probably also the energy and mining industries.

    And, this person will work in the interests of the people and not for a miserable bunch of friends.
    1. nycsson
      nycsson 29 August 2012 19: 04
      +1
      Quote: Patriot
      And, this person should immediately nationalize the oil and gas, and probably also the energy and mining industries.

      Everything strategic that affects the security and development of the state should be in the hands of the state!
    2. Imperialist
      Imperialist 30 August 2012 05: 26
      0
      Putin nationalized the fattest chunks of the oil industry directly through the Yukos affair; the state-owned company Rosneft received these fields.

      Any raw material export in Russia is subject to a high export duty, which removes most of the revenue and directs it directly to the budget.

      You again declined to answer who should change Putin, which shows that you don’t think more than one step further.
  • sazyckin
    sazyckin 29 August 2012 18: 08
    +1
    Custom article. American phrases work out similar phrases.
  • Patriot
    Patriot 29 August 2012 18: 24
    0
    Dear Tell me. Maybe someone heard. And what kind of agreement Putin signed in 2007. I heard that in 2007, President V. Putin signed into law N 99-FZ, allowing NATO forces to occupy Russia without a fight.

    Otherwise, I only heard from him out of the corner of my ear. Maybe one of Putin’s adherents will more accurately and in detail tell about him?
    Here is something I found on the net about this.

    http://www.dal.by/news/89/30-03-12-29/
    http://www.genocid.net/news_content.php?id=1323
    http://forum-msk.org/material/news/4523734.html

    I would like to see the source on the government website.
    But, if this is so, then once again we have to admit the fact that it is simply impossible to find a person who is more pro-Western, anti-Russian, and corrupt than Vova Putin in our country.
    POOR OUR COUNTRY. SUCH FRIENDLY TRAINERS UNDER CONTROL !!!
  • alex pav
    alex pav 29 August 2012 18: 57
    0
    Has anyone heard something about the new law on the Central Bank?
  • Melchakov
    Melchakov 29 August 2012 19: 13
    +2
    Quote: Patriot
    important. Tell me. Maybe someone heard. And what kind of agreement Putin signed in 2007. I heard that in 2007, President V. Putin signed Act No. 99-FZ, which allows NATO forces to occupy Russia without a fight.

    Otherwise, I only heard from him out of the corner of my ear. Maybe one of Putin’s adherents will more accurately and in detail tell about him?
    Here is something I found on the net about this.

    http://www.dal.by/news/89/30-03-12-29/
    http://www.genocid.net/news_content.php?id=1323
    http://forum-msk.org/material/news/4523734.html

    I would like to see the source on the government website.
    But, if this is so, then once again we have to admit the fact that it is simply impossible to find a person who is more pro-Western, anti-Russian, and corrupt than Vova Putin in our country.
    POOR OUR COUNTRY. SUCH FRIENDLY TRAINERS UNDER CONTROL !!!

    The problem is that you will never find this on the government website. he's not there. And not because they hide him, but because he never was.
    Do you really think that if the government wants to hide something, it can get into the media?
  • alex pav
    alex pav 29 August 2012 19: 25
    +1
    The draft federal law On Introducing Amendments to the Federal Law On the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (Bank of Russia) proposes:
    - establish that the functions and powers of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation are carried out jointly with the Government of the Russian Federation;
    - the powers to own, use and dispose of property, including gold and foreign exchange reserves, are exercised jointly by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation together with the Government of the Russian Federation;
    - ruble issue is carried out through the lending mechanism of the banking system (at low interest rates), which in turn will stimulate both the development of the banking system and the development of domestic small and medium-sized businesses. The lending mechanism and interest rate are determined by the Government of the Russian Federation;
    - management of gold and foreign exchange reserves as federal property is proposed to be carried out in accordance with the criteria established by the Government of the Russian Federation, namely, by determining and choosing foreign currencies based on their profitability, the share of foreign currencies in the volume of gold reserves, and also by deciding whether to invest them in domestic production (based on the provisions of the Budget Message on budget policy for 2013-2015);
    - The State Duma of the Russian Federation is invited to adopt a Decree on the establishment of limit values ​​for costs of participation in the capital and activities of international organizations.
    These changes will improve the management of gold and foreign exchange reserves, strengthen the status of the Russian ruble and reduce the pegging to the US dollar, and stimulate the lending system and the development of domestic entrepreneurship.
    The proposed changes are based on the provisions of paragraph 71 of Article 114 of the Constitution of the Russian Federation (the jurisdiction of the Russian Federation includes: establishing the legal foundations of a single market; financial, currency, credit, customs regulation, monetary emission, pricing policy frameworks; federal economic services, including federal banks), as well as the provisions of paragraph d of Article XNUMX of the Constitution of the Russian Federation (the Government of the Russian Federation manages federal property), therefore, the amendments made to the extent of expanding the powers of the Government of the Russian Federation will not entail changes to the Constitution of the Russian Federation, in terms of the provisions on the Central Bank of the Russian Federation .

    Submitted by the Deputies of the State Duma:
    E.A. Fedorov, V.F. Zvagelsky, A.Yu. Murgoy, A.V. Romanov

    Project No. 130800-6
  • Patriot
    Patriot 29 August 2012 19: 28
    -1
    [quote = alex-pav] alex-pav Today, 18:57 PM ↓ new 0
    Someone heard something about the new law on the Central District Hospital.

    I myself am very interested. HERE here briefly http://www.dal.by/news/89/29-08-12-14/

    Yes, true patriots, and not Kremlin henchmen, have long been talking about the nationalization of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. And, after all, at the moment, experts call the Central Bank of the Russian Federation- the BRANCH of the Fed. And at the moment there are strange bindings of the value of the money ruble to the presence of dollars on the balance sheet of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.
  • alex pav
    alex pav 29 August 2012 19: 32
    0
    http://asozd2.duma.gov.ru/main.nsf/%28Spravka%29?OpenAgent&RN=130800-6&02
  • Patriot
    Patriot 29 August 2012 19: 35
    -3
    Quote: Melchakov
    Melchakov Today, 19:13 ↓ 0
    Quote: The problem is that you will never find this on the government website. he's not there. And not because they hide him, but because he never was.
    Do you really think that if the government wants to hide something, it can get into the media?



    Please explain your thought. That is, you believe that someone took it and for no reason just came up with all this? Something is hard to believe.
  • sazyckin
    sazyckin 29 August 2012 19: 39
    +2
    Why is someone!
    The CIA can immediately see his fabrications with the naked eye.
    According to Goebels. The stronger the lie, the more mu..kov believe in it.
    What actually we see. wassat
    1. Concept1
      Concept1 29 August 2012 19: 42
      0
      Exactly!!!!!! good
  • Patriot
    Patriot 29 August 2012 19: 42
    +1
    Quote: nycsson
    nycsson (3) Quote: Patriot
    And, this person should immediately nationalize the oil and gas, and probably also the energy and mining industries.

    Everything strategic that affects the security and development of the state should be in the hands of the state!




    EXACTLY. THESE THESE ENEMIES OF THE PEOPLE HAVE TAKEN ALL THE RESOURCE SECTIONS TO THE HANDS AND STUPIDLY SUCK JUICES FROM OUR COUNTRY, WITHDRAWING THE OVER-PROFIT ABROAD.

    ps: VOVOCHKA. HAPPY. YOU HAVE NOT LONG LEFT. AS I ALREADY SAID, A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION OF ENERGY RESOURCES PRICES WILL RELEASE THE COUNTRY FROM YOUR IG. AND EVEN ON ASTROLOGGS APPROVE THAT THOSE WITH 20122012-XNUMX THE EPOCH OF PROSPERITY OF RUSSIA WILL START!
    COMRADE. WE LIVE AT A VERY INTERESTING TIME!
    1. REPA1963
      REPA1963 29 August 2012 23: 14
      -1
      Do not flatter yourself much, for example, I have been living for the last 30 years, too, I’m waiting for it to wait, when it finally ends, to live a hot man. Articles so-so, nothing new, everyone knows for a long time that Russia holds on while there is oil if God forbid America’s prices bring down.
      1. Imperialist
        Imperialist 30 August 2012 05: 17
        0
        They can bring down prices only if they arrange an economic crisis and leave their population to their own devices and impoverishment.
    2. Imperialist
      Imperialist 30 August 2012 05: 31
      0
      I do not understand if Russia does not profit from the export of its resources, how can a decrease in raw material prices affect Russia?

      So does Russia receive income from the export of raw materials or does it not receive?

      And relying on astrologers is ridiculous and their predictions can be interpreted in different ways.
      1. Passing
        Passing 30 August 2012 13: 49
        0
        Quote: Imperialist
        So does Russia receive income from the export of raw materials or does it not receive?

        Actually receives nothing. Part of the income, billions, stupidly goes to maintain the ruble exchange rate, another part does not leave the United States at all - stupidly lie in the fund of future generations, and other idiotic funds, which sooner or later stupidly go away again to maintain the ruble exchange rate, and the giant ones are dead weight Amounts exceeding annual sales of resources. Part, by means of kickbacks and other fraud, is removed from the budget and exported again abroad. The remaining crumbs are distributed to citizens in the form of meager salaries, at the very least, so that there are no hunger riots and no one bothers to pump money out of the country. When the oil runs out, the ilita will dump over the hill, enjoy civilization, and we will have a bunch of offices with European-quality repair, and crowds of people crushing shops, looking for something to eat.
  • Kapitanyuk
    Kapitanyuk 30 August 2012 23: 34
    0
    Author - go and kill yourself against the wall!