Military Review

Pipeline War in Syria (“Al Jazeera”, Qatar)

11
Pipeline War in Syria (“Al Jazeera”, Qatar)

Agreement between Syria and Iranian oil ministers could jeopardize Turkey’s position on the East-West energy route [REUTERS]


Deep under the "Damascus Volcano" and the "Battle for Aleppo", the tectonic plates of the global energy chessboard continue to roar. In addition to the tragedy and grief of the civil war, Syria is also a demonstration of the power of the Pipeline.

More than a year ago, an agreement was signed between Iran, Iraq and Syria for 10 billion dollars to build a gas pipeline from the giant Iranian South Pars field by the 2016 year. The pipeline should cross Iraq and Syria and get a possible follow-up to Lebanon. Key export market: Europe.

Over the past 12 months, when Syria was plunged into a civil war, there was no talk about the pipeline. Until now. The greatest paranoia of the European Union is becoming a hostage of Russia's Gazprom. The Iran-Iraq-Syria gas pipeline will become central to the diversification of energy supplies to Europe and bypassing Russia.

But the situation is complicated. Turkey is the second largest customer of Gazprom. The entire configuration of Turkey’s energy security depends on gas from Russia - and Iran. Turkey dreams of becoming a new China, giving Anatolia the configuration of a crucial strategic intersection of Pipeline to export Russian, Caspian-Central Asian, Iraqi and Iranian oil and gas to Europe.

Try to ignore Ankara in this game and you will have problems. Literally until yesterday, Ankara advised Damascus to carry out reforms — and quickly. Turkey did not want chaos in Syria. Now Turkey is pumping chaos in Syria. Let's look at one of the main possible reasons for this.

"I went to the crossroads"

Syria is not a major oil producer; its oil reserves are being depleted. And yet, before the start of the civil war, Damascus received hardly insignificant 4 billion dollars a year from the sale of oil - this is a third of the budget of the Syrian government.

Syria is much more important as an energy intersection like Turkey - but on a smaller scale. The main thing is that Syria needs Turkey to implement its energy strategy.

Syria’s pipeline game includes the Arab Gas Pipeline (AGP) from Egypt to Tripoli (Lebanon) and the IPC gas pipeline from Kirkuk in Iraq to Banyas - not operational since the American invasion of 2003.

The “politics of the four seas” occupies the main place in Syria’s energy strategy - an idea presented by Bashar al-Assad at the beginning of 2011, two months before the uprising. It’s like a mini-Turkish demonstration of power - an energy network connecting the Mediterranean, the Caspian and the Black Sea and the Persian Gulf.

Damascus and Ankara soon got down to business - integrating their gas distribution systems and connecting them to the Arab Gas Pipeline and, importantly, planning to continue the Arab Gas Pipeline from Aleppo to Kilis in Turkey; it can then be connected to the unfading Opera Pipeline - Nabucco, assuming that all is not lost for him (and this is far from reality).

Damascus was also preparing to surpass the gas pipeline from Iraq; at the end of 2010, he signed a protocol of intent with Baghdad on the construction of one gas pipeline and two oil pipelines. Again, the target market is Europe.

And then the real end of the world began. But even when the uprising had already begun, an agreement was signed on 10 billion dollars about the Iranian-Iraqi-Syrian pipeline. If it is implemented, it will be transported by at least 30% more gas than it is due to Nabucco.

But there is a snag. What is sometimes called the Islamic gas pipeline will bypass Turkey.
It is still unclear whether this complex gambit with pipeline to match the definition of casus belli for Turkey and NATO to drive Assad on the full program; but it is worth remembering that the strategy of Washington in southwest Asia since the Clinton administration was to circumvent, isolate and harm Iran with all the necessary means.

Dangerous Liaisons

Damascus followed a very complex two-pronged strategy — connecting with Turkey (and Iraqi Kurdistan) and at the same time bypassing Turkey and uniting with Iran.

Due to the fact that Syria is bogged down in a civil war, not a single global investor will even think about playing Pipeline. Yet in the scenario after Assad, all options are possible. Everything will rest against future relations between Damascus and Ankara, and Damascus and Baghdad.

Oil and gas must come from Iraq anyway (plus more gas from Iran); but the final destination of the Pipeline in Syria could be Turkey, Lebanon, or even Syria itself - directly exporting to Europe from the eastern Mediterranean.

Ankara obviously puts on the government after Assad under the leadership of the Sunnis, which will be similar to the “Justice and Development Party” (AKP, the ruling party of Turkey - approx. Perevodika.ru). Turkey has already stopped joint oil exploration with Syria and is going to end all trade relations.

Syrian-Iraqi relations include two separate points, between which, it seems, there is an abyss - relations with Baghdad and with Iraqi Kurdistan.

Imagine the Syrian government, consisting of the Syrian National Council and the Free Syrian Army; it would undoubtedly be hostile to Baghdad, mostly due to religious differences; In addition, the al-Maliki government of the Shiite majority is in good strategic relations with Tehran and, more recently, also with Assad.

The Alawite Mountains dominate the routes of the Syrian Pipeline in the direction of the Eastern Mediterranean ports of Banias, Lattakia and Tartus. There is also a lot of gas to be found - after the recent "exploits" between Cyprus and Israel. Based on the fact that the Assad regime will be overthrown, but will make a hasty strategic retreat into the mountains, the possibilities for partisan sabotage of pipelines increase many times over.
At this stage, no one knows how Damascus after Assad will reformat its relations with Ankara, Baghdad and Iraqi Kurdistan - not to mention Tehran. But Syria will continue to play Trebrovodstkana game.

Kurdish Mystery

Most of Syrian oil reserves are located in the Kurdish northeast, in a region that is geographically between Iraq and Turkey; the remaining reserves are in the south, along the river. Euphrates

Syrian Kurds make up 9% of the country's population - about 1,6 million people. Although they are not a significant minority, the Syrian Kurds are already pondering that no matter what happens in the situation after Assad, they will have a very good position in the pipeline, offering a direct route for exporting oil from Iraqi Kurdistan - bypassing and Baghdad, and Ankara.

It seems that the whole region plays a bypass lotto. As far as the Islamic Gas Pipeline can be understood as a bypass of Turkey, so a direct agreement between Ankara and Iraqi Kurdistan regarding two strategic oil and gas pipelines from Kirkuk to Ceyhan can be considered as a bypass of Baghdad.

Baghdad will, of course, resist this - emphasizing that these pipelines are not legally binding if the central government does not receive its significant recoil; after all, it pays 95% of Iraqi Kurdistan's budget.

The Kurds in Syria and Iraq are playing a smart game. In Syria, they do not trust Asad or the opposition SNA. The Democratic Union Party - related to the PKK - rejects the SNA as a puppet from Turkey. And the secular Kurdish National Council (KNS) is afraid of the Syrian "Muslim Brotherhood."

So the absolute majority of Syrian Kurds are neutral; no support for Turkish (or Saudi) puppets, all power in favor of the pan-Kurdish idea. The leader of the Democratic Union Party, Salih Muslim Mohamed, summarized it all like this: "The important thing is that we, the Kurds, are upholding our existence."

This means actually more autonomy. And this is exactly what they got from the agreement signed on July 11 in Irbil with the assistance of Iraqi Kurdistan President Massoud Barzani; and the joint management of the Syrian Kurdistan Democratic Union Party and the KNU. This was a direct consequence of the cunning strategic retreat of the Assad regime.

Not surprisingly, Ankara panicked - she sees that not only the PKK found refuge in Syria, taken by their cousins ​​from the Democratic Union party, but also that two de facto Kurdish mini-states appeared, sending a powerful signal to the Kurds of Anatolia.
Ankara could limit its nightmare by secretly helping Syrian Kurds economically - starting with helping and ending with infrastructure investments - through its good relations with Iraqi Kurdistan.

In Ankara’s worldview, nothing can stop her dream of becoming the main energy bridge between East and West. This means extremely complex relations with at least nine countries: Russia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Armenia, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Egypt.

As for the broader Arab world, even before the "Arab Spring" there were serious discussions about the Arab Pipeline, which would connect Cairo, Amman, Damascus, Beirut and Baghdad. This would contribute to the unification and development of the new Middle East more than any "peace process", "regime change" or a peaceful or armed uprising.

The dream of Greater Kurdistan has now returned to this fragile formula. And the Kurds have, perhaps, reasons for joy: Washington, apparently, silently supports them - this is a very quiet strategic alliance.

Of course, Washington’s motives are not completely disinterested. Iraqi Kurdistan under the leadership of Barzani is a very valuable tool for the United States in order to maintain its military presence in Iraq. The Pentagon will never admit it officially - but there are already promising plans for a new US military base in Iraqi Kurdistan or a transfer of the NATO base from Incirlik to Iraqi Kurdistan.

This must be one of the most exciting side stories of the Arab Spring; Kurds are great for playing Washington across the arc from the Caucasus to the Persian Gulf.

Many top managers of "Chevron" and "BP" probably salivate on the opening possibilities of Pipeline triangulations between Iraq, Syria and Turkey. In the meantime, many Kurds are probably happy about Pipeline, which opens the way to Greater Kurdistan.
Author:
Originator:
http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2012/08/201285133440424621.html
11 comments
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  1. Dmitriy69
    Dmitriy69 29 August 2012 07: 40
    +5
    But we thought that it was out of lofty thoughts about the prosperity of democracy that they climbed into Syria, but everything turns out to be simple and as usual - because of money.
    1. Sakhalininsk
      Sakhalininsk 29 August 2012 07: 48
      +4
      What can be high thoughts? High intentions only when fatty trainees in the oral office use, everything else is pure business.
      1. ward
        ward 29 August 2012 12: 57
        +2
        Well, don’t tell her, too, she made a profit ... she published a book ... by the way a joke ... An American young man brings a bride to a kasher family ... mom, dad is my bride ... their name is Monika Livinsky ... silence ... then father says ... listen and that black man ... what do you really don’t like now ...
  2. Ascetic
    Ascetic 29 August 2012 08: 03
    +7
    Many want to control the Middle East export of raw materials and dictate their conditions, the same Qatar with its gas or the Saudis with the idea of ​​a Salafi caliphate,
    therefore, Syria has become a kind of apple of discord geopolitical interests of many countries. And the yusov apparently no longer have the power to shout as before, all SHA! This is all mine ... And the position of Russia and China probably plays a key role in such a long and successful resistance by Assad.

    Russian military advisers did not leave Syria, General of the Army Nikolai Makarov, Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, told reporters today. Answering a question about Russian military advisers in Syria, he expressed bewilderment: "Why does Syria bother you so much?" "All the plans that we have are working, no one has run away from there. Everyone is working as planned." "Therefore, it seems to me that it is too early to put any points that we ran away from there," - stressed the NSG.

    My webpage
    1. alexng
      alexng 29 August 2012 09: 37
      +2
      Did Syria turn out to be that bone in the throat of the West, from which the USA will die and all this western werewolf with it.
      1. klimpopov
        klimpopov 29 August 2012 09: 53
        +1
        Hello. Well, about the bone, it’s possible, but it’s too early to say, control over the east, this is the control of the whole world, again it’s impossible to steer if one of these states is not subject to, so the amers assemble the puzzle around Iran, and they don’t back down, if ours surrenders, then it will end very quickly, if not, it will be delayed, because China cannot be discounted either.
      2. Adel
        Adel 29 August 2012 15: 24
        0
        to know how things are in Syria, I propose to look at the chronicle and analysis of what is happening and the forecast of Marat Musin

        http://anna-news.info/node/7168
  3. Nechai
    Nechai 29 August 2012 08: 44
    +3
    Quote: Ascetic
    And the yusov apparently no longer have the power to shout as before, all SHA! This all is mine...

    Stanislav, of course, the United States of America does not have enough power, and the requests are not just the same, but are growing. Not to mention the habits. / Suffice it to recall their "uncles" from foggy Albion, when they were pursued by cramps and cramps, after the Second World War. But the "porridge" themselves were coolly kneaded /
    So the "nephews" of the Britons have to go the beaten path. Rely not on brute force, but on the power of special operations. Moreover, they experienced such success recently - the collapse, the collapse of the Soviet Union. But the laws of the Universe do not obey the forehead analysts, no matter how hard they try to prove the opposite. And the Naglosakov's idea of ​​"New Islam" pulled out of oblivion will in no way bring THEM Victory. Only two results are possible:
    a) all-devouring chaos, primarily in the homes of the "gentlemen" and "cow herders";
    b) the revival and victorious march of socialist ideology. Whoever doesn't like the word "socialist" read - the ideas of the SOLIDAR SOCIETY. "When We are ONE, WE ARE NOT VICTORY!" Wahhabism can only be exterminated by barbaric methods, with the inappropriately depriving it of its social and social base. But this is achieved ONLY by the ideology of the Solidarity Society.
    Thinkers from Brussels, it is high time to learn that trying to get rid of the "dictate of Gazprom" they will inevitably settle down under the Anglo-Saxon hammer and anvil.
    1. sergo0000
      sergo0000 29 August 2012 09: 20
      0
      Nechai,
      This unity is just not necessary and scares the Americans. The chaos they manage in the BV is more profitable than ever at the moment the United States. They are enriching their entire history because they are used to parasitizing because these jackals always catch fish in the muddy and don’t let the Kurds flatter themselves to Uncle Sam’s sweet cakes!
      The geopolitical map of the Arab world has long been drawn on the tables in the Pentagon and I think there is no single Kurdish state on it!
      The time will come and they will find their "dictator".
  4. Nasty
    Nasty 29 August 2012 08: 49
    +1
    breathed gas
  5. segamegament
    segamegament 29 August 2012 08: 51
    +3
    Based on yesterday’s statements about the presence of special units of the European countries in Syria, events may develop in a completely different way. The Libyan script is perverted. Only capturing and exhibiting captured mercenaries can cool the hot heads in the parliament ...
  6. VPO
    VPO 29 August 2012 11: 47
    0
    Damascus, August 29th. A group of militants from the Syrian opposition announced the capture of 10 missiles from the arsenals of the Syrian government army.
    Well, it’s like they threw a test stone. Now they will surely unwind this scenario. A couple of weeks, a couple of theatrical productions and a new democracy in Syria is ready. My neighbor Syrian is a great person, a wonderful family man and patriot. For his original country, as well as for the whole world, this fucking hamburger democracy is already across his throat. I look at him and think that he will meet soon and go to relatives to help.