Today and tomorrow "Ruslanov"
Not for the first year on the sidelines of the defense industry and aircraft industry there has been talk of resuming the production of the An-124 “Ruslan” super heavy transport aircraft. The payload in 120 tons and a range of at least 4-5 thousands of kilometers make this aircraft a unique transport vehicle. At the same time, a number of circumstances several years ago forced the suspension of the mass production of Ruslan. Since then, there are regular proposals to start assembling aircraft again, but the matter has not yet come out of the talk stage. As it turned out, there are serious reasons for this, which were recently discussed at the International Air Transport Forum in Ulyanovsk.
Currently, almost four dozen An-124 aircraft are in operation. Approximately half of them are used for commercial transportation and serve in Volga-Dnepr, Polet and Antonov Airlines. The main specialization of orders in recent years has not changed - Ruslans still carry bulky goods that for some reason cannot be moved by another aviation technique. Two-thirds of all contracting companies associated with the An-124 account for state orders, another 10% - for the cargo of the aerospace industry, and about five percent - for the transportation of industrial equipment. At the same time, a considerable part of orders has already been scheduled for several years in advance. For example, space cargoes are already distributed over the next three years. However, the flights "Ruslanov" and there are not entirely positive aspects. The fact is that bulky cargo, which cannot be transported by any aircraft except the An-124, accounts for no more than 15-20% of the profit from all orders - about a billion dollars a year. Those. Ruslan operator companies have a certain commercial reserve, but it is too small to forget about the transportation of other goods.
The remaining 80-85% of contracts are a very important fraction of traffic, which in no case should not be missed. Nevertheless, in the past few years there has been an unpleasant trend: the number of orders for the transportation of general cargoes has fallen by three times. Transportation of goods on An-124 becomes simply unprofitable. According to V. Gabriel, Volga-Dnepr’s vice president of charter freight for Volga-Dnepr, these problems have several problems that need to be addressed as soon as possible. Three snares associated with technology. Firstly, the An-124 aircraft in the current configuration comply with existing international requirements, but are unlikely to fit into the promising ones. This includes noise, emissions of harmful substances, as well as on-board equipment. If you do not upgrade the engines and avionics, over time, all three carrier companies will lose at least two-thirds of the existing number of orders. The second problem concerns the operation of engines. Four D-18T two-circuit turbojet engines cannot produce full power under certain circumstances. Thus, the Ruslans often fly along the Kabul-Baku route, where the air temperature is often higher than 30-32 degrees. The height of the airfields in combination with the temperature of the air leads to a loss of thrust and, as a result, a loss of several tons of carrying capacity. Gabriel notes that not all ordinary merchants can understand why it is written everywhere about loading in 120 tons, and in fact the plane raises significantly less. Finally, at the moment, An-124 is quite expensive to operate the aircraft. For comparison, the representative of the management of the company "Volga-Dnepr" cited the figures of "Ruslan" and Boeing 747-400. It turned out that the cost of transporting cargo on a domestic aircraft is obtained by 35-40% higher than that of the “American”. There are several reasons for this: from crew size to maintenance cost. So, the Boeing crew consists of two people, not six, as in An-124-100; repair of the D-18T engine costs about US $ 2600 per flight hour against US $ 670-700 in the case of an American aircraft. In the case of a glider service, the situation is a little less sad - 830 dollars per flight hour against 420. Ultimately, the AN-124-100 flight hour costs about 33400 dollars, while the Boeing 747-400 costs nearly a thousand 24. As a result, it turns out that in the existing form "Ruslan" is already outdated and its modernization is required.
It should be noted that the need to modernize "Ruslan" began to speak for a long time, and the company "Antonov" already has a few ideas about this. In addition, not today or even yesterday, approximate characteristics were calculated that the new version of An-124 should have. According to Volga-Dnepr specialists, firstly, the capacity of the renewed aircraft should increase to 150 tons. Flight range at such a load must be kept the same as the current An-124-100 at maximum load. With a payload of 120 tons, the updated Ruslan should have a range of at least six thousand kilometers. With these flight data, the upgraded aircraft must be equipped with the most modern engines and onboard equipment. Noise and emissions must comply with international standards, and electronics - to ensure the full operation of aircraft, at least until 2030 year. In addition, it is required to provide at least 30% increase in economic efficiency. At observance of all these parameters, the updated An-124 can not only remain in the ranks, but also compete with foreign technology of a similar class. Increased performance and lower operating costs should have a positive impact on the overall activity of carrier companies using Ruslana. Now the total cost of operation before the development of the resource - 60 thousands of flight hours - is about 16-18 times higher than the price of the aircraft itself. In the case of the already mentioned Boeing 747-400, this factor is four times less. It is not difficult to conclude which aircraft is more profitable economically, if we are not talking about a particularly large payload that both aircraft can carry.
According to V. Gabriel, the period through 10-12 will begin during the period during which the issue of purchasing new An-124 will be completely resolved. The fact is that tentatively after 2025, the operating Ruslans will begin to run out of resources, and they will be written off. Taking into account the possible demand for the transportation of super heavy transport aircraft and the decommissioning of old equipment, by 2030, the airlines will need at least fifty new An-124. At the same time, Volga-Dnepr has already calculated that while maintaining the current growth trends in the transportation market, by the same time, much more transport workers will be needed - on the order of 80 units.
In this situation, a simple and fair question arises: what to do? It seems that Ukrainian aircraft manufacturers already know how to answer it. Quite a long time ago, Antonov presented the An-124-200 project to the public. In fact, from the previous modification this aircraft received only a glider and part of the aggregates. The updated "Ruslan" can be equipped with Russian, Ukrainian or foreign engines, it is planned to install radio-electronic equipment corresponding to the concept of a glass cabin on it. In addition, the crew will be reduced to three to four people, and if necessary, only two pilots will be able to control the super-heavy machine. However, according to the deputy general designer of the Antonov enterprise, O. Bogdanov, it will not be possible to achieve a significant increase in the maximum range or payload. But it is possible to raise the maximum mass of a mono-cargo from the current fifty tons to more than a hundred.
Perhaps the management of Volga-Dnepr does not approve of the lack of increase in payload and range. Nevertheless, Ukrainian aircraft designers have something to offer to operators. The main "trump card" - time. When using existing links between enterprises, the deployment of the An-124-200 production will take no more than one and a half to two years. If the customer wants to get aircraft with equipment and engines of foreign production, then the delivery time will increase to three years. Anyway, in the light of the specific commercial niche of “Ruslan”, the duration of the start of production does not look like something too long and unacceptable. In this case, we can expect the start of production of both variants of the aircraft. The fact is that government organizations, customers of Russia and Ukraine, prefer airplanes with domestic equipment, and merchants, in turn, are more inclined to order equipment with imported equipment. The secret of this phenomenon is simple - commercial organizations, unlike the ministries of defense, do not have any restrictions on the purchase of foreign equipment and machinery. In addition, they specifically relate to costs. As an example of the price difference, a new modification of the D-18 engine, which may be installed on the new Ruslans, can be cited. At the moment, fine-tuning the updated motor will cost about 300 million dollars. As for the purchase of foreign engines of a similar class and similar characteristics, the adaptation of such engines for use on the An-124 will cost about three times cheaper. The choice of a merchant is obvious.
The last question that arises when discussing the resumption of production of "Ruslan" - a platform for construction. The main contender for orders is the Ulyanovsk plant Aviastar-SP. According to its general director S. Dementiev, the plant is capable of simultaneously releasing new Il-76MD-90А and updated An-124. Moreover, now in the workshops of the plant there is a reserve for two fuselages for the Ruslans. The management of the Ulyanovsk aircraft factory believes that the resumption of the An-124 mass production is a matter of the next five years. Dementiev said that recently Aviastar-SP specialists visited all related enterprises whose products are needed for assembling Ruslans, and it turned out that all three hundred factories and plants are able to restore the production of necessary components. At the same time, about a hundred enterprises, unfortunately, cannot do it right now, since they need financial support. Regarding the revival of these industries, a certain amount of hope comes from the plans of the country's government. In the coming years, about three trillion rubles will be allocated for the restoration and modernization of defense industries. Approximately 20% of this money will go to the aviation industry. I would like to hope that government allocations will entail positive changes and domestic factories will receive the necessary number of orders, and shipping companies will update the fleet of vehicles.
On the materials of the sites:
http://rg.ru/
http://lenta.ru/
http://ria.ru/
http://antonov.com/
http://vpk-news.ru/
Currently, almost four dozen An-124 aircraft are in operation. Approximately half of them are used for commercial transportation and serve in Volga-Dnepr, Polet and Antonov Airlines. The main specialization of orders in recent years has not changed - Ruslans still carry bulky goods that for some reason cannot be moved by another aviation technique. Two-thirds of all contracting companies associated with the An-124 account for state orders, another 10% - for the cargo of the aerospace industry, and about five percent - for the transportation of industrial equipment. At the same time, a considerable part of orders has already been scheduled for several years in advance. For example, space cargoes are already distributed over the next three years. However, the flights "Ruslanov" and there are not entirely positive aspects. The fact is that bulky cargo, which cannot be transported by any aircraft except the An-124, accounts for no more than 15-20% of the profit from all orders - about a billion dollars a year. Those. Ruslan operator companies have a certain commercial reserve, but it is too small to forget about the transportation of other goods.
The remaining 80-85% of contracts are a very important fraction of traffic, which in no case should not be missed. Nevertheless, in the past few years there has been an unpleasant trend: the number of orders for the transportation of general cargoes has fallen by three times. Transportation of goods on An-124 becomes simply unprofitable. According to V. Gabriel, Volga-Dnepr’s vice president of charter freight for Volga-Dnepr, these problems have several problems that need to be addressed as soon as possible. Three snares associated with technology. Firstly, the An-124 aircraft in the current configuration comply with existing international requirements, but are unlikely to fit into the promising ones. This includes noise, emissions of harmful substances, as well as on-board equipment. If you do not upgrade the engines and avionics, over time, all three carrier companies will lose at least two-thirds of the existing number of orders. The second problem concerns the operation of engines. Four D-18T two-circuit turbojet engines cannot produce full power under certain circumstances. Thus, the Ruslans often fly along the Kabul-Baku route, where the air temperature is often higher than 30-32 degrees. The height of the airfields in combination with the temperature of the air leads to a loss of thrust and, as a result, a loss of several tons of carrying capacity. Gabriel notes that not all ordinary merchants can understand why it is written everywhere about loading in 120 tons, and in fact the plane raises significantly less. Finally, at the moment, An-124 is quite expensive to operate the aircraft. For comparison, the representative of the management of the company "Volga-Dnepr" cited the figures of "Ruslan" and Boeing 747-400. It turned out that the cost of transporting cargo on a domestic aircraft is obtained by 35-40% higher than that of the “American”. There are several reasons for this: from crew size to maintenance cost. So, the Boeing crew consists of two people, not six, as in An-124-100; repair of the D-18T engine costs about US $ 2600 per flight hour against US $ 670-700 in the case of an American aircraft. In the case of a glider service, the situation is a little less sad - 830 dollars per flight hour against 420. Ultimately, the AN-124-100 flight hour costs about 33400 dollars, while the Boeing 747-400 costs nearly a thousand 24. As a result, it turns out that in the existing form "Ruslan" is already outdated and its modernization is required.
It should be noted that the need to modernize "Ruslan" began to speak for a long time, and the company "Antonov" already has a few ideas about this. In addition, not today or even yesterday, approximate characteristics were calculated that the new version of An-124 should have. According to Volga-Dnepr specialists, firstly, the capacity of the renewed aircraft should increase to 150 tons. Flight range at such a load must be kept the same as the current An-124-100 at maximum load. With a payload of 120 tons, the updated Ruslan should have a range of at least six thousand kilometers. With these flight data, the upgraded aircraft must be equipped with the most modern engines and onboard equipment. Noise and emissions must comply with international standards, and electronics - to ensure the full operation of aircraft, at least until 2030 year. In addition, it is required to provide at least 30% increase in economic efficiency. At observance of all these parameters, the updated An-124 can not only remain in the ranks, but also compete with foreign technology of a similar class. Increased performance and lower operating costs should have a positive impact on the overall activity of carrier companies using Ruslana. Now the total cost of operation before the development of the resource - 60 thousands of flight hours - is about 16-18 times higher than the price of the aircraft itself. In the case of the already mentioned Boeing 747-400, this factor is four times less. It is not difficult to conclude which aircraft is more profitable economically, if we are not talking about a particularly large payload that both aircraft can carry.
According to V. Gabriel, the period through 10-12 will begin during the period during which the issue of purchasing new An-124 will be completely resolved. The fact is that tentatively after 2025, the operating Ruslans will begin to run out of resources, and they will be written off. Taking into account the possible demand for the transportation of super heavy transport aircraft and the decommissioning of old equipment, by 2030, the airlines will need at least fifty new An-124. At the same time, Volga-Dnepr has already calculated that while maintaining the current growth trends in the transportation market, by the same time, much more transport workers will be needed - on the order of 80 units.
In this situation, a simple and fair question arises: what to do? It seems that Ukrainian aircraft manufacturers already know how to answer it. Quite a long time ago, Antonov presented the An-124-200 project to the public. In fact, from the previous modification this aircraft received only a glider and part of the aggregates. The updated "Ruslan" can be equipped with Russian, Ukrainian or foreign engines, it is planned to install radio-electronic equipment corresponding to the concept of a glass cabin on it. In addition, the crew will be reduced to three to four people, and if necessary, only two pilots will be able to control the super-heavy machine. However, according to the deputy general designer of the Antonov enterprise, O. Bogdanov, it will not be possible to achieve a significant increase in the maximum range or payload. But it is possible to raise the maximum mass of a mono-cargo from the current fifty tons to more than a hundred.
Perhaps the management of Volga-Dnepr does not approve of the lack of increase in payload and range. Nevertheless, Ukrainian aircraft designers have something to offer to operators. The main "trump card" - time. When using existing links between enterprises, the deployment of the An-124-200 production will take no more than one and a half to two years. If the customer wants to get aircraft with equipment and engines of foreign production, then the delivery time will increase to three years. Anyway, in the light of the specific commercial niche of “Ruslan”, the duration of the start of production does not look like something too long and unacceptable. In this case, we can expect the start of production of both variants of the aircraft. The fact is that government organizations, customers of Russia and Ukraine, prefer airplanes with domestic equipment, and merchants, in turn, are more inclined to order equipment with imported equipment. The secret of this phenomenon is simple - commercial organizations, unlike the ministries of defense, do not have any restrictions on the purchase of foreign equipment and machinery. In addition, they specifically relate to costs. As an example of the price difference, a new modification of the D-18 engine, which may be installed on the new Ruslans, can be cited. At the moment, fine-tuning the updated motor will cost about 300 million dollars. As for the purchase of foreign engines of a similar class and similar characteristics, the adaptation of such engines for use on the An-124 will cost about three times cheaper. The choice of a merchant is obvious.
The last question that arises when discussing the resumption of production of "Ruslan" - a platform for construction. The main contender for orders is the Ulyanovsk plant Aviastar-SP. According to its general director S. Dementiev, the plant is capable of simultaneously releasing new Il-76MD-90А and updated An-124. Moreover, now in the workshops of the plant there is a reserve for two fuselages for the Ruslans. The management of the Ulyanovsk aircraft factory believes that the resumption of the An-124 mass production is a matter of the next five years. Dementiev said that recently Aviastar-SP specialists visited all related enterprises whose products are needed for assembling Ruslans, and it turned out that all three hundred factories and plants are able to restore the production of necessary components. At the same time, about a hundred enterprises, unfortunately, cannot do it right now, since they need financial support. Regarding the revival of these industries, a certain amount of hope comes from the plans of the country's government. In the coming years, about three trillion rubles will be allocated for the restoration and modernization of defense industries. Approximately 20% of this money will go to the aviation industry. I would like to hope that government allocations will entail positive changes and domestic factories will receive the necessary number of orders, and shipping companies will update the fleet of vehicles.
On the materials of the sites:
http://rg.ru/
http://lenta.ru/
http://ria.ru/
http://antonov.com/
http://vpk-news.ru/
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