Military Review

Failure for 193 billion: the United States is ingloriously leaving Afghanistan

51

Source: US Navy photo / Lt. Chad A. Dulac, flickr.com


At peace with the mujahideen


In the liberation of the occupied territories, the main thing is not to rush. Donald Trump at one time agreed on the withdrawal of American troops by May 1, 2021, but the newly elected Biden slightly adjusted the plans of his predecessor. As a result, the last Pentagon soldier must liberate the lands of sovereign Afghanistan by September 11 this year. And May 1 now marks the start date for the withdrawal of the American contingent.

Failure for 193 billion: the United States is ingloriously leaving Afghanistan
Signing of a landmark peace agreement between the United States and the Taliban. Source: TOLO News

В stories In the Afghan war, the United States has no reason to speak of even a ghostly victory. Joe Biden did not hide this when he announced his decision:

"It's time to end the longest war in our history, and it's time for American troops to return home."

So far, the Afghan campaign is famous only for being the longest in American history.

Judging by the nondescript successes of the Pentagon, it is also the most inglorious. Perhaps that is why the White House administration delayed the process of evacuating the military right up to September 11. A beautiful occasion and beautiful surroundings are needed to complete a not-so-outstanding campaign. First of all, because Washington had to go to direct peace negotiations with the Taliban terrorist organization (banned in the Russian Federation).

This was first spoken about in 2018, when a desperate Donald Trump instructed the State Department to find a way to conduct formal peaceful consultations with the Taliban. In relation to the official Kabul, the Americans acted very dishonestly (if not tougher) and did not include the government in the negotiating agenda. The Americans quickly reorganized themselves under the new agenda, abandoned a peaceful settlement within Afghanistan and focused on their own relations with the Taliban.

By the way, contacts between the Americans and the Taliban were observed earlier, but they were mostly unofficial and did not go beyond probing the ground. Trump needed access to official contacts with the Afghan mujahideen, first of all, for additional points in the upcoming elections. As history has shown, Trump's "pacifist" initiative did not help much, and Biden had to deal with Afghanistan.

Throughout the negotiations with Washington, the Taliban have outplayed their opponents and built a dialogue from a position of strength. Thus, the Afghans refused to recognize the modern constitution of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, and the government itself in Kabul was considered illegitimate. As, however, they believe now, rubbing their hands in anticipation of the withdrawal of NATO troops. It was only last September that the United States managed to bring representatives of the government, which effectively controls only the major cities, and the Taliban, who rule the rest of the Asian country, at the same negotiating table. The representatives of the Mujahideen agreed to consider the issue of a ceasefire and peace talks with official Kabul only after the withdrawal of the entire foreign contingent from the country. The Eastern-style language of the Taliban is very vague and ambiguous. The US representatives, signing agreements with the terrorist organization, obviously really wanted to get out of Afghanistan as soon as possible, and then the grass would not grow there.

End of Enduring Freedom


There are no examples of United States peacekeeping in recent history. Chaos invariably reigned wherever an American soldier stepped foot or the shadow of a combat aircraft flickered in order to establish democratic order. The examples of Iraq and Libya are striking illustrations. And there is no reason to talk about the normalization of the situation in Afghanistan after the completion of the twenty-year campaign "Enduring Freedom".

Over the past years, the occupation contingent has actually guarded itself and only held back the Taliban in their attempts at a coup d'etat. The main forces of the Americans are concentrated in Kandahar and Jalalabad. Although the United States claims that the Afghan army is seriously preparing to fight the Taliban, the actual activity consists in anti-terrorist activity against the underground Pakistani formations. It is no coincidence that the drone control center, which the CIA had previously organized in Pakistan, was relocated to Afghanistan a few years ago.


For twenty years of an unsuccessful war, the Americans have managed to get tired.

In the Afghan conundrum, in fact, everything is very simple - the Americans are leaving, and the official government will not hold out in Kabul for several months. And this is in the most optimistic version. In the worst case, after the lightning offensive of the Mujahideen, it will fall after several weeks. The Taliban are confident in their numerical superiority over the protégés of the United States that, according to Eastern traditions, they will not be allowed to talk with them on equal terms. It is worth remembering that the Taliban is a terrorist organization with extensive support from interested countries.

Official Kabul is in fact supported and paid for by the United States, which are known to be very inconsistent partners. This is another significant asset of the Taliban. Simply put, they are ready to promise Washington anything, and the Americans, making a naive expression on their face, will obligingly cede the territories that they conquered 20 years ago. Among the main reasons for this behavior is the course of the presidential administration to reduce military spending. Still, according to official estimates, the war has already cost US taxpayers an astronomical $ 193 billion. And it claimed about 3 thousand lives of servicemen. It is even scary to talk about losses among peaceful (and not so) Afghans - hundreds of thousands of lives are counted.

Yankee go home?


But the situation has not yet been fully decided. In late April - early May, the next round of the Conference on a Peaceful Settlement in Afghanistan is to be held in Istanbul. The Taliban at the meeting will be very unhappy - the United States promised in February last year to withdraw its troops by May 1, 2021, and held out immediately until the momentous September 11. The Taliban are already threatening to renew their attacks on coalition forces over failure to deliver on promises. In response, the Pentagon is ready for the traditional disproportionate response with missiles and bombs, which will again kill many peaceful Afghans. There is a likelihood of another failure of the American evacuation, as it already happened in 2012-2014.

Currently, no more than 3,5 Pentagon soldiers and about 7 servicemen from other NATO countries are permanently based in Afghanistan. Once the planes transport aviation will begin to evacuate the Americans, the departure of the rest of the coalition will not be long in coming. The government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan can only hope for 13 thousand mercenaries from PMCs. They will remain in the country in any case and will definitely be able to influence internal political processes. However, PMC fighters themselves often behave like terrorists, so it is premature to talk about them as a positive force.


The Taliban are ready to start a new stage of the war at any time if the Americans fail to fulfill their obligations.

Among the most "innocent" consequences of the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, first of all, will be the special position of women.

Even now, in schools controlled by the Taliban, girls, if they study, then separately and according to a truncated program. The rights and freedoms of women upon the return of the Taliban will finally be subject to Sharia law. The intolerant attitude of radical Islamism towards dissent and education will force tens of thousands of Afghans to flee the country. This is not only a loss for the country, but an additional burden on neighbors who host refugees.

Over the past years, the flow of the main export commodity - drugs - has been steadily increasing from Afghanistan. And with the withdrawal of American troops, the situation will get even worse. Whole ecosystems were formed around the American bases in which the local population worked. Where do the unemployed go now? Hired by local drug lords.

And, finally, the declared by the Taliban, the policy of the closed borders of Afghanistan for external terrorist organizations causes great distrust. If the Taliban can still carry out this trick with the "Islamic State" (banned in the Russian Federation), then how can they deal with the "native" Al-Qaeda (banned in the Russian Federation)?

The emergence of a fresh terrorist nest near the Russian border is very alarming for us and our neighbors.

Maybe the United States will stay in Afghanistan for another couple of years?
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  1. Flashpoint
    Flashpoint April 22 2021 04: 29
    +5
    The emergence of a fresh terrorist nest near the Russian border is very alarming for us and our neighbors.

    Everything new is well forgotten old. Just a rebranding.
    1. Aerodrome
      Aerodrome April 22 2021 05: 27
      +16
      Failure for 193 billion: the United States is ingloriously leaving Afghanistan
      Trillions on Drugs-Failure? I am laughing out loud...
      1. Koval Sergey
        Koval Sergey April 22 2021 09: 18
        +26
        Quote: Aerodrome
        Trillions on Drugs-Failure?

        Not only money ... The youth addicted to drugs in the countries of Eurasia is also a "plus" for the Yankees
        1. dorz
          dorz April 22 2021 10: 32
          +3
          The United States is ingloriously leaving Afghanistan ...


          It is unlikely that everyone will be taken out:

          The American base in Bagram allows you to control the airspace of Iran, Pakistan, India, partly China and Asia to the borders of Russia. Electronic intelligence is also conducted from there. For the United States, it was Afghanistan that became the place where the tactics of using private military companies were tested. Having left Afghanistan in part, the United States is going to focus on its two main threats.
          1. TermNachTer
            TermNachTer April 22 2021 23: 00
            +1
            And a smaller number will not be able to control even Kabul, they will sit in Bagram, like in a submarine and daily shelling.
      2. xorek
        xorek April 22 2021 21: 16
        -2
        Quote: Aerodrome
        Failure for 193 billion: the United States is ingloriously leaving Afghanistan
        Trillions on Drugs-Failure? I am laughing out loud...

        I also grit my teeth .. They leave, but their dealers, suppliers, remain. negative
        Somewhere a new igil should appear, preferably closer to Russia or within it
    2. Civil
      Civil April 22 2021 06: 56
      +1
      We are waiting for the PRC in Afghanistan, they have experience of putting things in order in Tibet and East Turkestan. A young hegemon with a proven method - settling the Han people, to overcome the hotbed of terrorism (the USSR knew what it was doing).
      1. novel66
        novel66 April 22 2021 07: 29
        +2
        not afraid to be cruel ... there is success somewhere,
      2. Doctor
        Doctor April 22 2021 08: 40
        +5
        We are waiting for the PRC in Afghanistan, they have experience of putting things in order in Tibet and East Turkestan. A young hegemon with a proven method - settling the Han people, to overcome the hotbed of terrorism (the USSR knew what it was doing).

        Why do the Chinese need it? Unnecessary war is not clear for what.

        This is now our smut. Then the Taliban will climb into Central Asia. wink
        1. Alexey RA
          Alexey RA April 22 2021 10: 36
          +8
          Quote: Arzt
          Why do the Chinese need it? Unnecessary war is not clear for what.

          Just for China it is clear for what - for minerals. One Ainak deposit is worth something.
          In addition, it will be easier for China: after all, the Taliban is a project of its ally, Pakistan, for which China is a salvation from India.
          1. Doctor
            Doctor April 22 2021 10: 41
            +4
            Just for China it is clear for what - for minerals. One Ainak deposit is worth something.
            In addition, it will be easier for China: after all, the Taliban is a project of its ally, Pakistan, for which China is a salvation from India.

            Ainak since 2007 and so is Chinese. For 30 years.
            And what kind of power is there and how much heroin will go from Afgan they don't care.
          2. TermNachTer
            TermNachTer April 22 2021 23: 01
            0
            Along the way, the project has long outgrown its designer and lives its own life)))
        2. Lara Croft
          Lara Croft April 25 2021 20: 25
          0
          Quote: Arzt
          This is now our smut. Then the Taliban will climb into Central Asia. wink

          For the third time Uzbekistan will be asked to join the CSTO again ...
      3. xorek
        xorek April 22 2021 21: 19
        -1
        Quote: Civil
        We are waiting for the PRC in Afghanistan, they have experience of putting things in order in Tibet and East Turkestan. A young hegemon with a proven method - settling the Han people, to overcome the hotbed of terrorism (the USSR knew what it was doing).

        I doubt that they will go there, if only through intermediaries .. They are more cunning and they are not interested in politics, they need resources .. (the population is growing)
  2. Vladimir_2U
    Vladimir_2U April 22 2021 04: 52
    -8
    and the government itself in Kabul was considered illegitimate. As, however, they believe now, rubbing their hands in anticipation of the withdrawal of NATO troops.
    Would our government have shown such intelligence and firmness in 2014 in relation to the "Maidan rulers" ...
  3. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 April 22 2021 04: 58
    +5
    "It's time to end the longest war in our history, and it's time for American troops to return home."
    Which eventually boiled down to an increase in drug trafficking, the destruction of civilians (weddings, funerals ...), but not militants, behind-the-scenes whispering with the Taliban and the loss of their authority. Let's see if the Americans will withdraw their contingent in September, otherwise the opposite may happen - they will increase, as has already happened. In a word, the war for the United States turned out to be shameful and inglorious, which I wish them in the future.
    1. novel66
      novel66 April 22 2021 07: 30
      +4
      the war for the United States turned out to be shameful and inglorious

      and not the first time
      1. Sergey Sfiedu
        Sergey Sfiedu April 22 2021 20: 00
        -1
        Afghan did not bring glory to anyone. And the USSR too.
        1. Lara Croft
          Lara Croft April 25 2021 20: 27
          0
          Quote: Sergey Sfyedu
          Afghan did not bring glory to anyone. And the USSR too.

          Afghanistan is the grave of Empires ...
    2. TermNachTer
      TermNachTer April 22 2021 23: 03
      -1
      And let them sit there further, spend money, ruin people. In the US Army there is already a huge shortage)))
      1. Sanichsan
        Sanichsan April 24 2021 11: 38
        0
        Quote: TermNachTER
        And let them sit there further

        Afghanistan may not bring glory, but it does bring incomes from the trade in gerych. Judging by what is happening, the group protecting drug trafficking, or fought with the US government, or lost control over these flows and, as a result, decided to withdraw the troops. all one cannot influence the situation. in all this, it is especially nice that the Taliban were formed by the Americans wassat
  4. nikvic46
    nikvic46 April 22 2021 05: 34
    +5
    I remember a rude joke. Armenian radio asked what to do if you swallowed billiard balls. The answer is to strengthen the toilet. So here it is necessary to strengthen the Tajik border.
    1. novel66
      novel66 April 22 2021 07: 31
      0
      radio-controlled machine gun towers
    2. Lara Croft
      Lara Croft April 25 2021 20: 38
      +1
      Quote: nikvic46
      it is necessary to strengthen the Tajik border.

      The Russian "green caps" are no longer there ... and the 201st WB has been squeezed down to the MRBR, which will apparently again have to be deployed to the MSD and redeployed from the Russian Federation to strengthen, primarily artillery, engineering, AA ...
      Well, at least the Russian Federation has been strengthening and rearming the Tajik army all this time ...
      The main task of the Russian Federation today is to look for allies "across the river" ....
  5. Nitarius
    Nitarius April 22 2021 07: 48
    +1
    everything is more cunning here ... the United States is removing its own .. so that their hands in the management of terrorists are not visible ... like everything in its own way! another hotbed of tension is being created for us! We decided to pack with someone else's hands and nothing more! as before!
  6. Niko
    Niko April 22 2021 07: 52
    +4
    Anyone who is older is very familiar. Only the soldiers were not American
  7. TermNachTer
    TermNachTer April 22 2021 08: 47
    0
    Mercenaries from PMCs, "fade" together with their owners))) the guys pretend that they are fighting (for money), and the dead do not need money))) so the mattress "sixes" in Kabul have nothing to hope for)))
    1. KVIRTU
      KVIRTU April 25 2021 00: 16
      0
      How to say, the CIA director was there yesterday ...
      1. shrus79
        shrus79 April 25 2021 16: 15
        0
        Apparently, he drove in to pick up the old stash, and then leave, like everyone else.
      2. TermNachTer
        TermNachTer April 26 2021 11: 47
        0
        He was given a machine gun and a BC?)))
  8. Ren
    Ren April 22 2021 09: 25
    -1
    It is believed that negotiations should be conducted with the real President of the United States - Kamala Devil Harris (in Finnish Kamalaa Devil Harris is a terrible devil Harris) belay
    Those. the one who will now conclude an agreement with this administration of the United States will conclude it - with the terrible devil Harris winked
    1. Guru
      Guru April 22 2021 12: 12
      +2
      in Finnish Kamalaa Devil Harris - terrible devil Harris
      Armagidets laughing
  9. Naz
    Naz April 22 2021 09: 38
    +3
    Something I did not understand "near the Russian border" is it like?
  10. Petrik66
    Petrik66 April 22 2021 09: 52
    +6
    when you have a military budget of more than 700 yards a year, then spending 9 yards a year on shooting games with women is not that expensive. Losses - 150 people a year? so the US police in 2019 shot 932 people! Compare the losses of the USSR in the DRA - 1500 people a year and the USA - 150 people a year. Completely different level of intensity of combat operations.
    1. Alexey RA
      Alexey RA April 22 2021 10: 38
      +1
      Quote: Petrik66
      when you have a military budget of more than 700 yards a year, then spending 9 yards a year on shooting games with women is not that expensive.

      USN will tell you right away that these billions are not enough to organize a normal repair of AB. smile
    2. albert
      albert April 22 2021 20: 39
      +1
      Quote: Petrik66
      Compare the losses of the USSR in the DRA - 1500 people a year and the USA - 150 people

      So no one supplied the Taliban with weapons against the Americans. Then the alignment would have been different.
  11. Mikhail3
    Mikhail3 April 22 2021 11: 51
    0
    Whole ecosystems were formed around the American bases in which the local population worked
    Yes, that's a problem. Where will the hubs for the supply of dope to Europe and to us now be? So the US military aircraft carried all this, after which a wave of dope covered Europe and went through our inviolable borders to our territory. The Taliban will not be able to maintain the functioning of airports. Well, that is, the Taliban did it, but what is now called that has nothing to do with the Taliban. What will happen?
    Well, most likely it will be like this. The bandits will be able to support car traffic somehow. So the role of drug hubs will be assumed by the "neighboring countries", that is, all these gangsters who are in power in these "countries". However, Europe as a market will become almost inaccessible for the Afghan dope. The costs are too high. You don't need a lot of money to buy our incorruptible government in bulk and flood the country with a shaft of cheap drugs. But the market is tiny!
    So, our elites will be bought together with several airports. I think they are already buying. We are about to hear victorious reports about "the development of air traffic in Russia." It is necessary to build the latest systems of work with aviation for the state account, it is not the "Taliban" who should pay for this! Pancake...
    1. Petrik66
      Petrik66 April 22 2021 18: 00
      +4
      Learn materiel. Our elites are sitting on a coconut. Coconut is produced in South and Central America. And babai cultivate gerych, according to the layouts it is for cattle.
      1. Mikhail3
        Mikhail3 April 23 2021 09: 06
        0
        There is an elder in the garden, hence there is a man in Kiev. I am very grateful for the brilliant training, but if you could read (or are you an elite? These immediately prescribe and indicate, without delving into what to do, there is no mind ...), then, after reading my comment, you would understand that it is not about the consumption of a couple of thousand people, but about industrial trade with a market for many millions of consumers. Can you imagine? Not about what a bunch of rulers are using, but about what dozens of countries are poisoned with. Moreover, in Europe, we clash almost instantly.
        1. KVIRTU
          KVIRTU April 25 2021 00: 36
          0
          What are we talking about :) I have been in Turkmenistan for 12 years, my father served, and never tasted anything, although nasty things at every step, right up to stuffed cigarettes in the market :) Nasvay, chewing gum, etc.
          1. Mikhail3
            Mikhail3 April 25 2021 14: 39
            0
            Prices will fall five times, and the problems will go seriously. "We" is a country, that is, its youth. To the point that you personally resist ... And how are the Turkmens there, have created a great state? Apparently not? Not least because the best have been aging for many thousands of years ...
  12. Guru
    Guru April 22 2021 12: 09
    0
    USA ingloriously leaves Afghanistan

    New series wink
  13. Rostislav
    Rostislav April 22 2021 12: 26
    +1
    Over the past years, the flow of the main export commodity - drugs - has been steadily increasing from Afghanistan. And with the withdrawal of American troops, the situation will get even worse.

    I think the opposite is true. Under the Taliban, the area of ​​poppy plantations was minimal, and only under the Americans, drug trafficking began to grow sharply.
  14. Old26
    Old26 April 22 2021 13: 42
    +2
    Quote: Civil
    We are waiting for the PRC in Afghanistan, they have experience of putting things in order in Tibet and East Turkestan. A young hegemon with a proven method - settling the Han people, to overcome the hotbed of terrorism (the USSR knew what it was doing).

    The Chinese are not dumb. In this cesspool, unlike us and the Americans, they will not climb. There is only one way to defeat the hotbed of terrorism in Afghanistan. Destroy the current population of Afghanistan. Afghans have shown for a couple of hundred years that conquerors do not stay with them
    1. The comment was deleted.
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    3. Rita Aletdinova 1999
      Rita Aletdinova 1999 April 25 2021 23: 13
      -1
      You yourself will be destroyed there like a splinter. Do not make me laugh. Nobody can conquer Afghanistan. Let people live in peace and enjoy life.
  15. Maks1995
    Maks1995 April 22 2021 14: 50
    +1
    In order not to write, be sure to kick YUSA.
    And the failure, and 193 bln.

    they received attendants, they trained the troops, and now they will cut them.
    Not for the first time like. As we are in some places.
    After the victory, the troops were withdrawn from Iraq and Syria more than once. So what?

    And 193 mlrd ... so everything has long been inscribed in the budget of the army. 193 would not have gone anywhere. Not here, so in Iraq or Syria ...
  16. Alex1949
    Alex1949 April 22 2021 16: 28
    +1
    Author! Think hard. Even if the troops are withdrawn from Afghanistan, they will immediately be sent to bases in Syria and on the Black Sea coast. What kind of defeat are we talking about? The Americans urgently need troops in Syria and Ukraine.
  17. for
    for April 22 2021 17: 38
    -1
    Maybe ours are smart enough not to get in there again.
  18. Ivanushka Ivanov
    Ivanushka Ivanov April 22 2021 17: 52
    0
    This is all nonsense to divert your eyes A hint, they say, we do not need anything there. This rotten song is already very many years old. They will not go anywhere until they destroy Iran as a power. Now, while Armenia will be brought to mind and will begin (the airfield for the Israeli aviation has already been built). It remains only to ask Russia from there (but this is not long to wait). Ukraine will be brought to mind - the equipment will be driven to the borders (under the guise of aggravating the situation in Donbass) ...

    All this is the implementation of plan B. According to plan A = ISIS was supposed to strike from the south / after swallowing the entire Middle East / (where Russia has no borders at all + all of Central Asia) in parallel with Ukraine (for this they once acquired the Maidan button / long ago was ready and waiting for its time /) + Caucasus, Turkey, Tatarstan. In general, a complete fire.

    But ... Everything went wrong: Yanukovych did not fight (there was no big heroic civil war with the removal of pro-Russian forces to Russia and further, but Donbass happened with the potential of a response in the other direction + souring of "zapadentsev"), MAIN THING! In Syria, ISIS was destroyed ... by Iran. Of course, with the international protection of Russia. Yes, we bombed everything and everyone there, however, as practice shows, spooks bury themselves, dig entire cities, and the situation becomes a stalemate. It was the Iranians who climbed the holes. This is who actually smoked ISIS from Syria.

    So that's it. There will be no Iran, ISIS will rise up in exactly two months and take everything back to itself. Further fire in Central Asia = see plan A
  19. mikstepanenko
    mikstepanenko April 22 2021 23: 02
    0
    And one plus if the Taliban come to power. As it was rightly said, all the time under the Americans, drug production only increased. When the Taliban were in power, they achieved an almost complete cessation of the production of drugs, with the Amers it increased hundreds of times. When and if power is transferred to the Taliban, the flow of drugs will be drastically reduced.
    1. Lara Croft
      Lara Croft April 25 2021 21: 07
      0
      Quote: mikstepanenko
      When and if the Taliban take over,

      Consider already crossed ...
      the flow of drugs will be drastically reduced

      ... there will be a lot of things to be reduced, the number of schools, cultural and leisure facilities, the local population, which will choose to take refugees into account, but Sharia courts and a desire to shift their way of life to the North will appear ... and there are dictatorial and spineless regimes ... ... Kyrgyzstan alone is worth something, with its "good" long-term tradition to arrange pogroms for every election ... but they won't abandon the Russian Federation and the PRC, and Kyrgyzstan's army is more or less combat-ready ...
      .... or Turkmenistan, which closed itself off from the whole world, like the DPRK, the local regime there will not last a day in the event of an invasion by the Taliban ... and no one will support this power, neither an unfit for combat army, nor the population, which was driven back into the Middle Ages ... and Iran or Turkey will not fight for it, it will not have the most unenviable fate ...
      ... Uzbekistan the Taliban will not digest and will join the CSTO for the first time for the third time ...
      .... Tajikistan seems to have been vaccinated during the civil war of the 90s and the army seemed to be something of itself ... but it still won't hold the entire border ...
      To summarize, the United States found the time to leave Afghanistan ...