Military Review

Breath of War

16

Source: ritmeurasia.org


Before my eyes, the war in Donbass is emerging for the third time, and for the third time, somewhere in a parallel Universe, political consultations, negotiations are taking place, politicians declare detente, and events are rolling on as usual. The first time it was the infinitely long spring of 2014, when negotiations were underway in Geneva, Kiev-Moscow consultations, Poroshenko promised peace in two weeks, and near Sloviansk they were already shooting, soon they began everywhere, and for three whole months.

The second time was in late autumn of the same year, despite the Minsk agreements, despite the demarcation lines and consultations of the Normandy Four, there were more and more shots, and the rhetoric of politicians was farther from reality. It all ended with the Debaltsev operation and Minsk-2. As one great general put it:

"The unfinished forest is growing again."

And here again and according to the same signs - first timid shelling of positions, then over the course of a month on the increase:

1. The murder of a 71-year-old pensioner in the village of Trudovskie in the Petrovsky district of Donetsk. The sniper was shooting, shooting, clearly knowing by whom. There was no clear reaction.

2. The murder of a five-year-old child near Yenakiyevo. The UAV was working, the operator of which could not help but see that under his apparatus there was a peaceful village and an ordinary courtyard. There was no reaction, apart from indignation, again.

3. Yesterday, April 15, 2021, the outskirts of the city of Donetsk were shelled:

“As a result of yesterday's shelling of Donetsk, three houses were damaged. A man born in 1962 died. "

Again there is no clear reaction of a military nature. But there are a number of other signs that speak volumes. Thus, preparations for the Victory Parade have been canceled in the LPR. This holiday is celebrated in the Republics almost more widely than in the Russian Federation, and in this context, this event is from the category of incredible. In Donetsk, the windows of the city council on the first floor are being filled with sandbags, which is a clear sign of preparation for street battles; in some organizations, archives are being taken out and work books are being handed out to employees of budgetary organizations. The warning systems were checked and the bomb shelters were put in order. People from the front line are slowly leaving closer to the city centers.

There are no illusions in the Republics: the ratio of the population of Donbass and Ukraine is 1:10, the Corps and the grouping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is about 1: 6, the exact figure, taking into account the shortage in both armies, is not easy to establish.

At the same time, the Ukrainian side can calmly mobilize and fill its Reserve Corps with people, and in the Republics mobilization is unlikely, according to the experience of 2014/2015, military enlistment offices, troop dispositions and public buildings were subjected to the first strikes. In such conditions, there will simply not be time to call in, arm and form reserve units. Although some preparation is underway, in the face of a massive enemy attack, the organization of normal mobilization measures is impossible.

Only the resistance of the personnel Corps of the People's Militia within the city development is possible. It is the huge Donbass agglomerations that give a certain chance to hold out for a more or less significant time. It is impossible to oppose more without having an air force, solid air defense, OTRK and a reserve. Courage, patriotism and other beauties are for books, in this world big battalions win. The enemy has much larger battalions. And here it is not even Karabakh - there, rather, the inability of Armenians to use modern weapons and their unwillingness to go all the way.

Now it is up to the politicians to decide whether there will be a war, or will it be possible to reach a certain consensus at the last moment, which will postpone it for a certain time. It will not be possible to completely remove this factor, the question of timing and readiness. Well, and a question for Moscow - will it intervene and will it help if it breaks out? Or would he prefer to pretend that nothing terrible is happening? Judging by the statements of politicians, I must stand up, and this is the chance that everything will come down to the death of a certain number of people and artillery ping-pong, without developing into something more, much more terrible and large-scale.
Author:
Photos used:
ritmeurasia.org
16 comments
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  1. Vladimir_2U
    Vladimir_2U April 19 2021 04: 26
    +7
    Damn, this is sad. There is only one hope for the Russian Federation, but it seems that it is not illusory.
    1. Insurgent
      Insurgent April 19 2021 05: 18
      +14
      Quote: Vladimir_2U
      Damn, this is sad. There is only one hope for the Russian Federation, but it seems that it is not illusory.


      Only the resistance of the personnel Corps of the People's Militia within the city development is possible. It is the huge Donbass agglomerations that give a certain chance to hold out for a more or less significant time.


      We will do everything that is possible and not possible. There will be no stain on us ...

      Well, a question for Moscow - will it stand up and help if it breaks out? Or would he prefer to pretend that nothing terrible is happening?


      It is a matter of honor (and responsibility) of Russian politicians for their words and actions.
      1. Cananecat
        Cananecat April 19 2021 06: 13
        +8
        Quote: Insurgent
        We will do everything that is possible and not possible. There will be no stain on us ...

        We just do not doubt this, there would be no wasted time for a strike. The second time, the Banderlog will not gather like this in a heap, or this heap will be more multinational than this time.
        1. depressant
          depressant April 19 2021 08: 10
          +9
          No sleep. It dawns early.
          Donbass hurts -
          non-healing wound.
          Will he be betrayed or protected?
          Doesn't the strong need him?
          I need,
          I need Donbass!
          And mentally I give the order:
          Arise, fallen in battle!
          Forward, for your Motherland!
          The ground hurts, her answer:
          "There is no holier me in the world ..."
          1. Vladimir Mashkov
            Vladimir Mashkov April 20 2021 20: 28
            0
            "Now it is up to the politicians - will there be a war, or at the last moment it will be possible to reach a certain consensus that will postpone it for a certain time. It will not be possible to completely remove this factor, the question of timing and readiness. Well, the question to Moscow is whether it will stand up and help if it breaks out? Or would he prefer to pretend that nothing terrible is happening? Judging by the statements of politicians, he should intercede .. "

            It is impossible to speak with certainty about this or that event, except for the onset of day and night, the seasons: everything that depends on the will of people has only the probability of fulfillment.

            The likelihood of real large wars in / in Ukraine today great.

            Will Russia join Donbass / Ukraine? today? With a high probability - YES!

            Unfortunately, it all depends on the Americans, the State Department ...
  2. Thrifty
    Thrifty April 19 2021 05: 20
    +13
    Too much is now at stake, even the very existence of Russia, NATO has come close to our borders, and it does not burn with the desire to retreat. This suspended state will not last long. There will be a provocation and a war on the continent. In such a situation, even standing sideways to the Donbass is at least a strategic mistake. We need tough action, we need de jure the admission of the republics to Russia. The truth that the country, trying to avoid shame and war, in the end receives both shame and the war of our government must always be remembered.
    1. Insurgent
      Insurgent April 19 2021 05: 51
      +7
      Quote: Thrifty
      Too much is now at stake, even the very existence of Russia, NATO has come close to our borders, and it does not burn with the desire to retreat. This suspended state will not last long. There will be a provocation and a war on the continent.


      That's it recourse ... You need to look into the future, with the understanding that this is "W-w-w-w" around Russia - not a chain of accidents or coincidences, but the pattern of implementation of certain actions to block, isolate and strangle you as a state ...
    2. Astra wild2
      Astra wild2 April 19 2021 18: 12
      0
      "It is necessary to de jure the admission of the republics to Russia" is it we think so, what do they think in the Kremlin?
      In the LPNR, too, not everything is unambiguous.
      The site contained information that the property of Renat Akhmetov and other oligarchs was not touched.
      I doubt that Akhmetov and Co. will allow these republics to join Russia.
      I have never been in the military, but life has taught me how to shoot and think a little.
      MY OPINION the local elites are NOT INTERESTED not only in joining the Russian Federation, but capable of conspiring with Kiev: WHAT TO EXPLAIN that they have not yet united into one republic?
      I remember from the first grade the parable about the broom
      -The father told his sons to break the broom, but no matter how hard they tried and could not break it, they easily broke it along the twig.
      How can we talk about the adoption of the LDNR in the Russian Federation in such a situation?
      Maybe I don’t understand something?
      1. Lara Croft
        Lara Croft April 25 2021 22: 47
        0
        Quote: Astra wild2
        "de jure must be admitted to the republics in Russia"Do you and I think so, what do the Kremlin think?"

        The experience of recognizing the RSO and Abkhazia has shown that this is not necessary ...
        The Kremlin has told the world enough words that Russia will not abandon the Donbass ...
        In the LPNR, too, not everything is unambiguous.

        Definitely. There is not even a second line of defense there, and tank battalions in mechanized formations are not fully equipped with either L / S, or V and VT ... with artillery units, no better ........ there is practically no mobilization human reserve .. ...
        I doubt that Akhmetov and Co. will allow these republics to join Russia.

        He doesn't care where to run his business, he is a man without a homeland ... his name is an oligarch ...
        WHAT TO EXPLAIN that they have not yet united into one republic?

        The Russian Federation does not allow, initially the LPR and DPR wanted it that way, the Russian Federation finally began to learn something from the Anglo-Saxons ... it is easier to manage disparate state entities (after all, the war will not last forever), and they will never be part of the Russian Federation, so the same as Abkhazia and South Ossetia ...

        P.S. The fate of the peaceful existence of the LPR and DPR can be decided, no matter how regrettable it sounds, only one thing is the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Donbass ... which will put an end to the first ... as well as Russia's membership in the OSCE ...
        I think Russia will have to do what it has not done for a long time (the last time in 99) does not give a damn about the opinion of the world community ...
  3. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 April 19 2021 05: 56
    +4
    There is a strong hope that the deprivation and suffering of the people of Donbass with the help of Russia will end. Russia is obliged to put an end to this Ukrainian lawlessness heated by the West. The survival of our country is at stake.
  4. avia12005
    avia12005 April 19 2021 06: 45
    +9
    Ukraine in its present form must be eliminated as a most dangerous foothold for an attack on Russia.
    1. bayard
      bayard April 20 2021 03: 52
      +1
      It was liquidated as a state.
      As an idea.
      As an ideology.
      And not "to the Dnieper", but completely.
      And all those involved in crimes against humanity (and there are a lot of them) to be brought to trial by a military tribunal.
      For they chose war.
      Little Russia, Novorossiya, Slobozhanshchina and Chervona Rus are primordially Russian lands.
      And these lands are inhabited by Russian people. And not some "Ukrainians".
      Ukrainians should be recognized as a mental illness. And to treat forcibly.
  5. From Tomsk
    From Tomsk April 19 2021 08: 54
    +4
    It is possible, of course, to withdraw the troops as far as possible from the unallocated - to Chukotka and the Kuriles, but something tells me that the Americans and Japanese will not appreciate this broad gesture of peacefulness on the part of Russia.))
    1. Xnumx vis
      Xnumx vis April 19 2021 15: 19
      +1
      Quote: From Tomsk
      It is possible, of course, to withdraw the troops as far as possible from the unallocated - to Chukotka and the Kuriles, but something tells me that the Americans and Japanese will not appreciate this broad gesture of peacefulness on the part of Russia.))

      They will get it there too! They will be accused of oppressing the reindeer ..., of feeding the walruses poorly ...
  6. Lara Croft
    Lara Croft April 25 2021 22: 54
    0
    Only the resistance of the personnel Corps of the People's Militia within the city development is possible. It is the huge Donbass agglomerations that give a certain chance to hold out for a more or less significant time.

    The author does not skimp on his "good" advice. The APU are such fools to repeat the "feat" of the Americans in Fallujah or ours in Grozny in 95th ....?