Military Review

The "ghost of the second Karabakh" has melted: Donbass has its own way

82

Source: narodna-pravda.ua, Konstantin Bolshakov


The second Karabakh war will definitely enter the annals of the military stories... The conflict will be studied and even tried to restart in other hotspots on the world map. But why go far - in Kiev they set out to repeat the Azerbaijani experience in Donbass.

Why did the Ukrainian warriors fail?

Analogies and parallels


The second Karabakh war "inspired" the military strategists who settled in Kiev. They hastily began to repeat to themselves and to the public: "and we can repeat it." Well, of course - the analogies seem to be there. Azerbaijan strives in every possible way for the return to its fold of the rebellious Nagorno-Karabakh, the independence of which has not been recognized by anyone, not even by its native Armenia.

The latter supports Artsakh in every possible way, primarily militarily. But the absence of a unified state affects everything, including the military-political development. This was clearly manifested in the second Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. LDNR are also in limbo.

In Ukraine, they are, in general, humiliatingly called ORDLO - separate areas of Donetsk and Lugansk regions. LDNR, of course, went through a significant stage of its own state building. But no one hides dependence and the need to rely on Russia.

The similarity of the two rebellious territories is manifested even in the ratio of indicators: area / population. If Nagorno-Karabakh is only 7,5 times inferior to "indigenous" Azerbaijan in terms of occupied area, then in terms of population - 66 times. In the case of Lao PDR-Ukraine, the figures are in a sense inverted: the territory of the “square” is 35 times larger, and the population is 11,5 times. In other words, the rebellious "fragments" are crushed in every sense: economically, territorially and socially.

Militarily, Artsakh and LDNR are also similar. During the first conflict with Azerbaijan, Nagorno-Karabakh held the initiative on the battlefield. As a result, it was possible to defend not only the indigenous territory of the republic, but also to take control of the "buffer" Azerbaijani regions. The successes of the LDNR are more modest. But several "cauldrons" into which the Ukrainian troops fell, cooled their ardor and desire to destroy the militias.

But over time, the situation turned upside down. The initiative went largely to the opponents of the rebellious republics. Azerbaijan, starting from 2007, sharply went ahead of Armenia in terms of the size of the military budget. If the Armenians could invest about $ 0,5 billion annually, their neighbors increased the parameter to $ 3,5 billion. The Artsakh army, of course, was also modernized, but, in fact, it remained Soviet.

The situation in the LPNR looks better. Scattered militias were reformatted, resulting in two army corps that look like a very serious military mechanism. But Ukraine did not stand still either. Since 2014, its military budget has steadily increased - to almost $ 4 billion in 2020.


Source: flickr.com

The number of Ukrainian troops is 245 thousand people, and in the east of the country, near the line of contact with the LPR, the military group increased by February-March 2021 to 100 thousand people. All experts admitted that if Ukraine decides to attack the rebellious republics, they will not survive for long.

Who is friends with whom


But the main thing is that the world has changed. High morale alone cannot win a war. Technology, information and training are important. And a significant factor is who supports whom.

Azerbaijan got Turkey as its allies, which in all seriousness invested in military-technical cooperation. The Turks helped their eastern neighbors with military equipment, aviation support, instruction and training of the Azerbaijani military. They also added a technological trump card - the Bayraktar drones, which are believed to have played a role in the second Karabakh war.

Finally, specific human resources were allocated - from the north of Syria in the fall of 2020, units of “Turkomans” were hastily transported to the border with Artsakh, which went through “fire, water and copper pipes” in battles with the Kurds and the Syrian army.

But this was not yet the final guarantee of victory. Azerbaijan took advantage of the cooling of relations between its allies Armenia and Russia and the presence of the "Trojan horse" - Pashinyan. In addition, it became clear that there is no high military coordination between the armies of Artsakh and Armenia. The whole combination of factors led to a sad outcome - the defeat of Nagorno-Karabakh, the loss of significant territories and strategic settlements.

The Kiev strategists immediately started placing the chips on their map. Well, look, they said, everything fits together: the Ukrainian army has been modernized - "but yak", behind the back is "big brother" - "yak same." The United States is persistently helping with military equipment, weapons, instructors and advisers.

And the political moment is ripe. The eternal friend of the "independent" Biden came to power in the United States, and the former kaveenschik sitting on the Ukrainian throne needed to urgently raise his falling rating. How to raise it - of course, a victorious war. But will Russia come to the aid of the LPNR? This is a big question - the Kiev strategists decided.

In addition, another active player has appeared on the Donbass field - Turkey. “Sultan” Erdogan, apparently, decided to play the revival of the Ottoman Empire in the XXI century. Inspired by the successes in the Karabakh conflict and the fact that, in fact, Russia allowed Armenia to squeeze its eccentric ally in the Transcaucasus, Erdogan decided to go further.


Source: kremlin.ru

That is, try to change the status quo in the Black Sea basin as well. Quite specific steps have been taken for a long time. There is also fruitful military-technical cooperation with Ukraine. For example, the aforementioned Bayraktar drones have already appeared in service with the "Square".

There is also a project for the construction of a canal bypassing the Bosphorus, and, consequently, bypassing the notorious Montreux Convention. It remains only to send "Turkomans" to help Zelensky, and the picture will turn out to be very ominous for Donbass.

The recent visit of the President of Ukraine to visit Erdogan confirmed the previous vector. Erdogan spoke in favor of Ukraine's membership in NATO, once again did not recognize the "annexation" of Crimea and let slip about the strategic partnership between Turkey and Ukraine. Although it was stated that the conflict in Donbass can be resolved peacefully. But these are words, and Bayraktars are already flying in Ukraine, albeit in a training format.

Red lines


Russia had to sway for some time, and at some point there were even suspicions that everything in Donbass would follow the Karabakh scenario. The Russian Federation initially sent pacifying diplomatic signals to the West.

For example, Secretary of the Security Council Nikolai Patrushev recently announced that Russia does not plan to intervene in the conflict in Donbass, but is closely monitoring the situation. When asked if Russia has any "red lines" at the intersection of which it is ready to openly intervene in the conflict in Ukraine, Patrushev replied: "We are not hatching such plans."

But the more frequent provocations of Ukrainian troops on the line of contact with the LPNR, active flights of NATO and American drones near the Crimea and Donbass, as well as the calls of warships into the Black Sea, forced Russia to mark red lines.

Large military formations on the scale of armies were quickly pulled to the eastern border of Ukraine. Urgent support came to the military "kulak" located in the Crimea. Specific "beacons" also appeared - the 58th army moved up to Ukraine, which forced Georgia to peace in 2008.

Let's not forget about the fast transfer of the Caspian ships flotilla to the water area of ​​the Azov Sea. Finally, Russia slightly pulled out of its sleeve and a technological "trump card" - suddenly began active radio-electronic interference in the ranks of the Ukrainian troops. Even the OSCE mission in Donbass did not fail to point out the obstacles that began to interfere with monitoring the situation on the contact line.

The "ghost of the second Karabakh" has melted: Donbass has its own way
Source: president.gov.ua

And suddenly everything changed. Kiev strategists suddenly stopped saying "and we can repeat", and statements only about a peaceful format for resolving the conflict in Donbass poured in. And Biden even had a telephone conversation with Putin.

In other words, Russia has shown its red lines very clearly - the protection of the Russian-speaking population in Donbass is now a priority. Teeth will be shown to everyone who decides to replay the situation in the northern Black Sea region.

Moscow also sent clear signals to its business partner, Turkey. Tourist flights between the countries were unexpectedly terminated on Monday. And as the numbers say, the tourist flow to Turkish resorts in the spring is almost equal to the dock times.

In general, everyone should think hard.
Author:
Photos used:
english.alarabiya.net, russiaprimavera.ru, linx.uz, pastvu.com
82 comments
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  1. Asad
    Asad April 18 2021 04: 46
    +2
    It came at last to the management of the Square, and most importantly to the owners that it is possible to finish badly! The main task of the joint venture 2 is to put into operation, and let the striped greens pour three yards into the ,,, bottomless ,,!
    1. Aerodrome
      Aerodrome April 18 2021 05: 10
      +3

      Moscow also sent clear signals to its business partner, Turkey. Tourist flights between the countries were unexpectedly terminated on Monday.
      and then: covid ... covid ... yes "bayraktars", not covid.
      1. Mavrikiy
        Mavrikiy April 18 2021 06: 18
        0
        Quote: Aerodrome
        and then: covid ... covid ... yes "bayraktars", not covid.

        Diplomacy..... request Not a word of truth. request
        But we know that ... repeat
    2. Bashkirkhan
      Bashkirkhan April 18 2021 05: 27
      +4
      Quote: ASAD
      task SP 2 to put into operation, and let the striped greens pour three yards into the ,,, bottomless ,,!

      The Ukrainian elite is understandable. The possibility of blackmailing a transit country, politically, economically, is disappearing ... A problem looms ahead in the form of a mandatory reorganization of the GTS. And they will hang themselves for the hryvnia. And what is not unimportant, no one will throw a salokopeyka on this business. After all, they were told - there were plans that Russia itself should pay for the Russophobic policy of Ukraine ... They do not understand why for seven years they are given only loans to repay previous loans and loans for ancient weapons that Ukraine takes from creditors ...
      1. Shiva83483
        Shiva83483 April 18 2021 06: 14
        0
        The Ukrainian elite is understandable. The possibility of blackmailing a transit country, politically, economically, is disappearing ... A problem looms ahead in the form of a mandatory reorganization of the GTS. And they will hang themselves for the hryvnia.
        strangle themselves for the hryvnia? yes these for the hryvnia - in the church, the air will spoil
        1. Vladimir Mashkov
          Vladimir Mashkov April 18 2021 19: 54
          +1
          Not a bad informational article without a clear conclusion about the possible development of events.
          1. Vadim Ananyin
            Vadim Ananyin April 21 2021 19: 31
            0
            It seems that the development of events is not yet foreseen, since no one expected such an approach, a sharp one.
            1. Vladimir Mashkov
              Vladimir Mashkov April 21 2021 19: 46
              0
              Quote: Vadim Ananyin
              It seems that the development of events is not yet foreseen, since no one expected such an approach, a sharp one.

              I don’t know why you don’t know, but very a large number of competent experts clearly explained the situation, what, how, why and when will start approximately.
              1. Vadim Ananyin
                Vadim Ananyin April 22 2021 23: 23
                -1
                Yes, of course I do not follow many factors of the situation, but in fact no one needs complications now. Well, it seems to me. I am not Esperd and I draw conclusions only on the basis of publications and analytics of other members of the community. Here the subtleties of translation can affect.
                1. Vladimir Mashkov
                  Vladimir Mashkov April 23 2021 13: 04
                  0
                  Quote: Vadim Ananyin
                  in fact, no one needs complications now. Well, it seems to me.

                  To the americans now VERY complication of relations between Europe and Russia is necessary. In order that, due to the completion of the construction of the SP-2, Europe does not improve relations with Russia and not increased, but American control over Europe did not diminish and it did not weaken due to the strengthening of Europe / Russia. And for this, the United States is now making every effort, having connected for this all its European "tobaccos": French, British, Dutch, Polish, Lithuanian, Latvian, Estonian, Bulgarian, Czech. And the Ukrainian ones are even ready to sacrifice for the sake of its Europe.
                  1. Vadim Ananyin
                    Vadim Ananyin April 23 2021 16: 59
                    -1
                    The United States probably needs to aggravate relations between the EU and Russia, but the EU is
                    also not a fact that it will support such a situation. They may not merge but merge the Anglic's friends of tobaccos. And as for Chekhov and Ukropoliakov, the Bundes, in fact, do not care anymore. But they are unlikely to want a serious military confrontation, today
                    Virsyara hinders them and the housekeeper is not the right one at the moment.
                    1. Vladimir Mashkov
                      Vladimir Mashkov April 23 2021 17: 07
                      0
                      Quote: Vadim Ananyin
                      Yes, it is also not a fact that it will support such a situation.

                      Just wondering where are you from, what forest, what nothing do not know? "The EU will not ..." Who is this? OSCE? PACE? CE? Borrell? Johnson? Macron? England? France? Sweden? Holland? Denmark? Czech Republic? Slovakia? Poland? Lithuania? Latvia? Estonia? Romania? Denmark? Greece? Haven't you heard anything about all of the above? After all, the entire Runet is making noise about their Russophobic "exploits" today!

                      Or are you a junior high school student and you have no time because of classes?
                      1. Vadim Ananyin
                        Vadim Ananyin April 23 2021 22: 34
                        0
                        I am from the forest from the same as you, Dear comrade, if you do not understand what was written to you, then please dismiss me.
    3. Aleksandr1971
      Aleksandr1971 April 18 2021 05: 32
      +5
      The events of 2014 took place even before the commissioning of SP-1 and the Turkish Stream.
      One way or another, but Ukraine will be dragged into NATO, provided that Russia does not provoke hostilities in the Donbass itself. I believe that for Russia this would be the best solution to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO.

      At the same time, hostilities against Ukraine should be conducted primarily in the air. It is necessary to eliminate all not only the military infrastructure of Ukraine, but also all the civilian infrastructure to the west of the Dnieper. We must achieve the complete elimination of any investment climate in Ukraine and bomb it into the state of Libya and Syria. Then the people from there will run away wherever they look. And Ukraine will not become a NATO member. Territorial detachments of militants will rule in Ukraine instead of the central government.

      For this, Russia is only threatened by the fall of the ruble for a while. But the hryvnia will simply disappear, and currencies of other states will replace it on the territory of Ukraine.
      1. Jacket in stock
        Jacket in stock April 18 2021 06: 41
        +2
        Quote: Aleksandr1971
        Ukraine will be dragged into NATO, provided that Russia does not provoke hostilities in Donbass itself. I believe that for Russia this would be the best solution

        Yes Yes.
        Let's go to fight.
        For many years now, all of Europe, America has been calling, but we are stupid in no way fighting. We don't understand our happiness.
        1. Aleksandr1971
          Aleksandr1971 April 18 2021 07: 00
          +2
          You need a reason. And there is no reason, so you have to make a reason
          1. Jacket in stock
            Jacket in stock April 18 2021 08: 25
            +2
            Quote: Aleksandr1971
            there is no reason, so you have to do

            Reasons for fighting and looking for are not enough, they are already enough.
            But we must find an opportunity not to fight. This is a real challenge.
            1. dauria
              dauria April 18 2021 12: 15
              +9
              But we must find an opportunity not to fight.


              No, sir. "Not to fight" is not enough. He raised his paws, handed over Ukraine to NATO and do not fight for health. Let the descendants clean up the Chernihiv-Bryansk border and the Crimea, surrounded by a bridge thread.
              But without fighting, returning Ukraine would be the aerobatics of politics. Who will give it back? And time is against Russia, not for. So the problem is still the same.
        2. Alarmist79
          Alarmist79 April 18 2021 16: 01
          0
          = For many years now, all of Europe-America has been called, =
          And it seemed to me that 1. we were required to keep our hands off Ukraine 2. we keep them away from Ukraine 3. we simultaneously declare that this is not because they demanded of us, but because we outwitted everyone.
      2. Bashkirkhan
        Bashkirkhan April 18 2021 07: 15
        +3
        Quote: Aleksandr1971
        At the same time, hostilities against Ukraine should be conducted primarily in the air. It is necessary to eliminate all not only the military infrastructure of Ukraine, but also all the civilian infrastructure to the west of the Dnieper. We must achieve the complete elimination of any investment climate in Ukraine and bomb it into the state of Libya and Syria. Then the people from there will run away wherever they look.
        It is much more interesting for Russia that Donbass is not bombed, and everyone would live in peace and tranquility. But the Ukrainians, in principle, are not capable of this: they are built on denial. If there is no war with the Russians, there will be a massacre of the Poles, as in Volyn. Or Hungarians. Or Jews. Or someone else, if only it was enough.
        And so, in fact, after a couple of months of normal intense bombing, the Ukrainians will have such a demand for peace that they will have to push their feet away from those who want to lick their boots. Ukrainian prisoners were observed. While they were shooting, they did not have a "request for peace" and everything was fine. We were taken prisoner - in snot and tears, "rafik not blameworthy" and "request for peace" in a kiloton size for each.
      3. The comment was deleted.
        1. Narak-zempo
          Narak-zempo April 18 2021 13: 43
          +1
          Quote: Postum
          And how are you different from a fascist?

          The fact that they are fascists there, in / on.
          1. Azzzwer
            Azzzwer April 18 2021 19: 46
            -8
            And the type is not here? Come on! One so-called The Russian world is worth something!
      4. Andobor
        Andobor April 18 2021 14: 01
        -2
        The Minsk agreements guarantee that Ukraine will not join NATO, whether they are implemented or not. This is the main task for Russia - it has been solved.
        1. Mikle2000
          Mikle2000 April 24 2021 23: 15
          -1
          Only, alas, temporarily. The process is not reversible, a matter of time.
      5. didra
        didra April 18 2021 14: 08
        +4
        When you say to bomb, you forget that people live there. And mostly Russians, by the way.
      6. Piramidon
        Piramidon April 19 2021 10: 55
        0
        Quote: Aleksandr1971
        The events of 2014 took place even before the commissioning of SP-1

        For reference.
        In April 2010, construction of the Nord Stream gas pipeline began in the Baltic Sea. In November 2011, the first line of Nord Stream was commissioned, and in October 2012, the second line.

        So during the "Maidan" SP-1 was already working.
      7. Starshina wmf
        Starshina wmf April 19 2021 18: 21
        0
        There is a main condition for joining NATO. There are no disputed territories. To join NATO, Crimea must be recognized as a Russian and Donbass state as a separate state. And this is surrender on all fronts for the authorities. So joining NATO is just chatter for the citizens of Ukraine. To distract from more major and pressing problems.
    4. tralflot1832
      tralflot1832 April 18 2021 08: 23
      -3
      JV 2 will slam the Ukrainian gas transportation system, and they will only have Moldova, Romania and Hungary. But then the brothers can hurry up, giving gas from the Turkish Stream through their gas transmission system to Moldova and Romania. Naftogaz got into politics, while understanding nothing in it. So and I want to say: Well, son, the Polish Poles helped you! We'll still wait until Ukraine will buy gas from us at European prices, plus an extra charge for disloyalty (for harm). to Russia
      1. Mikle2000
        Mikle2000 April 24 2021 23: 16
        -1
        Don't be naive. One stroke of the pen sets the maximum percentage of gas pumping through a particular pipe. The usual antitrust requirement.
    5. max702
      max702 April 18 2021 17: 57
      +2
      That's right, SP-2 will put the 404 in a stall at the speed of sound, but in Karabakh it is not quite like that, Azerbaijan flogged Armenia with the permission and permission of the darkest, because they cut it beyond measure .. And the Russian peacekeepers are there again so that the Armenians do not lose their shores , will continue to ride, then the Russians will leave and Azerbaijan, which by that time has digested the developed territories, will be happy to explain whose cow it is and who is milking it .. I will say directly in recent years I am simply delighted with the tactics and strategy of our leadership, with minimal efforts, mainly at someone else's expense, they everywhere achieve maximum results .. Well done!
  2. aszzz888
    aszzz888 April 18 2021 06: 09
    -4
    Kiev strategists suddenly stopped saying "and we can repeat"
    Just try, there is enough earth to bury your stupid little heads for everyone. angry
    1. JD1979
      JD1979 April 20 2021 00: 08
      +1
      Quote: aszzz888
      Just try, there is enough earth to bury your stupid little heads for everyone.

      Did the burrower sharpen the shovel? or as usual from the couch?
  3. Shiva83483
    Shiva83483 April 18 2021 06: 12
    +5
    Brzezinski wrote at one time "... without Hohland, the Russian Federation will not be an empire" .... as for me, this parvenu was screwed up, and his mistake is as follows: without "Hochland" Russia will be an EMPIRE ... but without the Russian Federation, "Hochland", as it was a "wild" field, will remain the same "wild" field ...
    1. nemez
      nemez April 19 2021 08: 13
      0
      Without a pole, hence the thoughts are
  4. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 April 18 2021 06: 50
    +5
    Kiev strategists suddenly stopped saying "and we can repeat" ... Moscow sent clear signals to its business partner, Turkey.
    When they really felt that no one was going to joke with them (the Ukrainians) and persuade them, the "friends of Ukraine" promised a lot, but they were not going to fight, and immediately cooed about a peaceful settlement of the conflict. Well, no less "doves of peace". Erdogan's cunning and the slogan "this is business and nothing more" (regarding the supply of UAVs) immediately received a response in the form of antiquated measures. True, in Turkey, the number of cases has really jumped at times and there is still no sign of a decline. Let's see how events will develop further, since Ukrainian Natsiks talk about a peaceful settlement like a sickle in one place.
  5. oppozite28
    oppozite28 April 18 2021 07: 29
    .
    And suddenly everything changed. Kiev strategists suddenly stopped saying "and we can repeat", and statements only about a peaceful format for resolving the conflict in Donbass poured in. And Biden even had a telephone conversation with Putin.
    So the whole combination on the part of Washington and Kiev (including the DPR together with the LPR "valiant patriots of the Russian world", not to mention the olegarchs like Akhmetov) is to offer Russia such a model for the development of the situation in Donbass, in which the subsequent steps of the Russian the sides will be predictable, and no matter how pseudo-patriots scream in the DNR and LPR (help if you help They shoot at us, give them (Kiev and Washington) a response, in the event of a war starting from some fool or a drunken primate screaming something from the thickets of the Gardens of Eden or the jungle and waiting for someone to answer something, provocateurs with the flag of Russia), and now Russia's actions have become predictable. , troops have been pulled up to the border with Ukraine, the rhetoric about the seizure of the Rostov region and Krasnodar Territory has ceased from the side of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and the PMR is not heard or seen at all (they are silent and await Russia's reaction, preferably active hostilities, seeds and popcorn have probably already been stocked up) For sure, tacit consultations with representatives of Kiev, the Washington Regional Committee and the EU are already underway with the PMR through tacit channels (for example, in Telegremm, in one of the groups called Garden and Vegetable Garden or Harvest 2021, etc., etc.). And the PMR would really like Russia to be even more led like a cattle for slaughter, they (patriots like the PMR, DPR, LPR) like it when they are led on provocations, first they shoot, they themselves climb into the cave (hole), and then they yell, help us, we are not to blame, the gun fired itself, the coffins themselves were buried in Ukraine, in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. And patriotism is not visible or audible, the bushes were shooting themselves.
  6. nikvic46
    nikvic46 April 18 2021 07: 31
    -1
    Now there are few countries left for which the main thing is to defend their own borders. For many to snatch a piece, but fatter. The pandemic has done its job in the world. Many thousands of impoverished young people have asked to join the ranks of their armed forces. This did not pass by the generals and admirals. They did not pass by. regarded all this as the rise of high patriotism. And a decrease in this tension is not visible in the near future.
  7. Thrifty
    Thrifty April 18 2021 07: 44
    +1
    So, Zelensky may be hanged, for the true masters inside the Ukrainian government, namely the nationalists, are eager to attack the republics. This means that the war there is only a matter of time, and Russia will have to actively help not only by supplying equipment and weapons, but also by direct participation in the elimination of the National Battalions and those units of the armed forces that will fight against Donbass.
  8. Stirbjorn
    Stirbjorn April 18 2021 08: 01
    +2
    Militarily, Artsakh and LDNR are also similar. During the first conflict with Azerbaijan, Nagorno-Karabakh held the initiative on the battlefield. As a result, it was possible to defend not only the indigenous territory of the republic, but also to take control of the "buffer" Azerbaijani regions.
    And to expel the local indigenous population from the "buffer regions". The Karabakh conflict is ethnic, in contrast to the conflict in the Donbass. Among the ukrovermacht, the most zealous was shown precisely by the residents of neighboring, Russian-speaking regions, primarily the Dnipropetrovsk region, and not the distant Galicians and Volynians
    1. Albay
      Albay April 19 2021 01: 31
      +3
      Stirbjorn
      In the so-called buffer areas, the indigenous population was driven out by the Armenian military 30 years ago and since then, until the liberation, these areas were not inhabited. Basically, all cities and villages were destroyed.
      1. Stirbjorn
        Stirbjorn April 19 2021 08: 16
        +1
        I know, I wrote about this in my post. hi
  9. Aleksandr1971
    Aleksandr1971 April 18 2021 08: 34
    -6
    Quote: Jacket in stock
    Quote: Aleksandr1971
    there is no reason, so you have to do

    Reasons for fighting and looking for are not enough, they are already enough.
    But we must find an opportunity not to fight. This is a real challenge.


    The real task of Russia is different - it is to prevent the transformation of Ukraine into a military base of the enemy. And for this it is necessary to make sacrifices in Ukraine. Russia, on the other hand, will not suffer casualties if it conducts a purely air campaign, as well as fires cruise missiles and MLRS.
    1. dauria
      dauria April 18 2021 12: 36
      +2
      The real task of Russia is different - it is to prevent the transformation of Ukraine into a military base of the enemy.

      This is true and vital for Russia.


      Russia will not suffer casualties if it runs a purely air company.

      But this is "bullshit". Sorry for being straightforward. The outcome of the war is decided by the infantry, the aviation is only obliged to make it easier for them.
  10. faterdom
    faterdom April 18 2021 09: 27
    0
    Russia is the guarantor of peace, and the Minsk agreements, by the way. And the guarantor must guarantee, or even compel violent violators.
    But Ukraine, which has fulfilled these agreements to the point, I do not even undertake to imagine what it could be? At least, very different from the current walk-field.
    1. Feliks m
      Feliks m April 18 2021 13: 17
      -1
      There is no need to bomb anything, Donbass is slowly but surely dragging Ukraine to the abyss. From this I can see the ruin of small firms and enterprises, the deterioration of living standards and impoverishment. And Ukraine was not going to attack Donbass, I think Zelensky was tasked with raising the stakes, increasing shelling and creating provocations. Zelensky is a coward, but not a complete fool to get into a bloody conflict.
      1. Victorio
        Victorio April 19 2021 09: 44
        +1
        Quote: Feliks m
        There is no need to bomb anything, Donbass is slowly but surely dragging Ukraine to the abyss. From here I can see the ruin of small firms and enterprises, a deterioration in living standards and impoverishment ... And Ukraine was not going to attack Donbass, I think Zelensky was tasked with raising the stakes, increasing shelling and creating provocations. Zelensky is a coward, but not a complete fool to get into a bloody conflict.

        ===
        Where are you from? in general, because of the pandemic and other things, many (and in different countries) had to shrink. and prices are growing steadily.
        1. Feliks m
          Feliks m April 19 2021 13: 36
          +2
          I am from Nikolaev. The pandemic, of course, cleared my pockets, but I'm very sorry for my edge, I don't see any prospects, shit about one thing.
  11. hermit
    hermit April 18 2021 12: 58
    +3
    What is the author's confidence that there will be no offensive? Are Ukrainian troops returning to their places of permanent deployment? So far, no video of Ukrainian echelons of tanks heading west has emerged.
  12. iouris
    iouris April 18 2021 13: 21
    +2
    Time is a resource that cannot be renewed. But the main thing is that favorable moments are not reproduced twice. The army needs a victory. The inactive army is degrading.
  13. Aleksandr1971
    Aleksandr1971 April 18 2021 13: 36
    -3
    Quote: Postum
    And how are you different from a fascist?


    What are you asking the question about?

    That the West has democratically turned Libya and Syria into chaos?
    So Russia and Ukraine should do the same. It will also be democratic.
    1. didra
      didra April 18 2021 14: 16
      +1
      This is not a very smart statement!
  14. Dimide
    Dimide April 18 2021 13: 58
    +1
    For the hundredth time: -Zelensky has repeatedly stated that Ukraine will not return Donbass by military means.
    After Azerbaijan's victory in Karabakh, it was RosSMI that remembered that Ukraine had Bayraktars in service and concluded that the Armed Forces of Ukraine could apply Azerbaijan's experience in Donbass, and the situation was escalated.
    In some comments it is proposed to bomb, incl. and the civil infrastructure of Ukraine. Do you really think that in the event of a full-scale invasion of the RF Armed Forces into Ukraine, the border regions of Russia, and the Crimea, will remain safe?
    1. Barberry25
      Barberry25 April 18 2021 15: 49
      +1
      laughing and that is why in Ukraine they began to pull together troops and declare that "we are ready to crush the Donbass" ... and only after our troops openly pulled up the troops, they began to mumble that they had not planned anything like that ..
  15. Financier
    Financier April 18 2021 15: 35
    +6
    The conflict will be studied and even tried to restart in other hotspots on the world map

    Only there they will try to restart where there is an interethnic conflict. There is no interethnic conflict in Donbass. And it makes no sense to try on the experience of the second Karabakh war on the realities of Donbass. The Kiev authorities, after the signal sent by the Russian Armed Forces, understood (did they understand? And if they did, then for a long time?) The absurdity and futility of their adventure.
  16. Mahony
    Mahony April 18 2021 18: 06
    -3
    Against the background of falling confidence in Putin, he needs a small victorious war. Although he can piss, as happened with Armenia
  17. aleks700
    aleks700 April 18 2021 18: 27
    0
    On the one hand it is good. There is no war. From another territory, Ukraine again avoided collapse. And she, the territory, must be eliminated.
  18. dgonni
    dgonni April 18 2021 19: 07
    +3
    The author confused the solid with the warm.
    Azerbaijan has been preparing for the operation for at least 3 years!
    At the same time, with a plus year before the operation, he conducted reconnaissance in force, so to speak.
    Well, then, at the peak of hostility to the north wind, he conducted an operation.
    Ukraine could not repeat this in any case. And I didn't even plan. What is pumping in the internet network? It was just a whipping up. Moreover, mainly in the RU segment!
    Well, the cherry on the cake!
    Donbass is an agglomeration! These are not a hundred villages scattered in mountain gorges and valleys.
    And Kiev does not need a second Grozny a priori. I am in terms of destruction and loss of civilians.
    Well, the north wind is in fact around the corner. Just whistle and he will come.
    1. serg v zapase
      serg v zapase April 18 2021 20: 08
      0
      I remember that Russian services warned Erdogan about the possibility of a coup. Measures were quickly taken. Apparently there were connections. Consequence - the war in Karabakh was lost by the Armenians long before the war itself, because the high patrons, having information, did not really climb. In Donbass, the situation is different, there are no Pashinyans, they do not drown there for joining NATO, Russian citizens live there. On the other hand, the opposite is true. They need small victories, or at least demonstration performances, and the coal will not be superfluous.
  19. Butchcassidy
    Butchcassidy April 18 2021 21: 07
    -1
    They surrendered Karabakh, and they did it in May 2018.The Turks wisely invested through the Soros funds and financed the coming to power of Pashinyan, who handed over everything with giblets. There was no military victory even close in Karabakh: Ankara and Baku wisely used the ancient oriental wisdom: a fortress that no army can take can be taken by a donkey laden with gold.

    And so they did. Therefore, the Karabakh situation has nothing to do with Donbass. Firstly, in Donbass, thank God, there are no Pashinyans of its own demons, and secondly, Karabakh is simply a big war between Turkey and Russia postponed for a longer period. Az. R. returned to its historical role - to be a Turkish geopolitical anti-Iranian project, two large Turkish bases are being built there. And the rapid Sunnisization with a bias towards Wahhabism of the traditionally Shiite population will not be in vain. And 3000 Turkish terrorists from Syria, 80 km from Dagestan, are also a smoldering hotbed of Islamism.

    And I wish Donbass to return the entire Left Bank to Russia.
    1. Albay
      Albay April 19 2021 01: 36
      -2
      Destruction of 80 percent of the enemy's military equipment is not a military victory? Almost 10 thousand killed in the ranks of the Armenian army and the liberation of almost the entire occupied territory is not a military victory? Come to Baku, a museum of war trophies has already been opened and there are about 300 pieces of military equipment captured and destroyed from the Armenian armies are demonstrated.
      About Turkomans and the so-called Sunniya, these are ordinary fakes!
      1. Butchcassidy
        Butchcassidy April 19 2021 15: 28
        -2
        Of course, not a military one. First, the Turks fought against the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh, the RA Armed Forces were in the barracks. And before that, Pashinyan shook up the entire generals, staged a terror against the fighting generals - the heroes of the First War. He appointed the 28-year-old fosterling of Soros leadership courses, who made a revolution with Pashinyan and did not serve in the special services for a single day, as the head of the united special service of Armenia - the SNB. Need more proof of treason?

        Or that the leadership of Nagorno-Karabakh, which came under pressure from Pashinyan, a few months before the war, sold all their lands in the now occupied territories of NK? Or is it a coincidence that Pashinyan dismisses the mapping service of Armenia a month before the start of the war, without transferring its functions to anyone? And the establishment of the border is in favor of Baku. Because there is no one competently to dispute the proposed boundaries. And there are too many such coincidences to be coincidences.

        As for the Turkoman terrorists, listen to the head of the Foreign Intelligence Service. He said everything in Russian in white.

        PS Do you think that Baku is independent in a situation when, at the height of the war, the Turks arrest the chief of the General Staff Az. R., because he has a Russian / Soviet military education, and they take him to Ankara?))
        1. Albay
          Albay April 20 2021 03: 17
          -1
          1. What did Pashinyan do to everyone purple. The fact that the Armenian generals both before Pashinyan and during his reign swore that in the event of a war they would defeat the Azerbaijani army and wake up drinking tea in Baku))
          2.so that the victory is military.
          3. Patrushev expressed anxiety and did not say anything about the Turkomans, he did not present any facts either.
          4. Where are the losses of the Turkish army if it participated in the war. It is not customary in Turkey to hide losses and wherever their soldiers die, they are honorably buried in their homeland.
          5.the chief of staff was not arrested, and if he was arrested it would then be a minus, what good is it if the chief of the general staff is arrested during the war?)) Well, only if he is not a spy)))
          Why are there Turks in general and Soviet or Russian education?)))
          The Minister of Defense also has a Soviet military education and an acting chief of the General Staff too))
          Stop living in fairy tales, have the courage to admit your shameful defeat))
          1. Butchcassidy
            Butchcassidy April 27 2021 11: 46
            -1
            1. Violet and not very much. Its role in the defeat of the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh is higher than the role of the Armed Forces of Az. R. and the Armed Forces of Turkey.
            2. No, see point above.
            3. I did not say anything about Patrushev, I spoke about Naryshkin, the head of the SVR. The fact that he has to prove something to someone is nonsense from a crazy dervish. Do you know in general what kind of SVR organization it is and what is its authority and status? I am already silent about the Security Council of Russia and its secretary Patrushev. This is, politely speaking, nonsense.
            4. There were both prisoners and victims. They were exchanged.
            5. The head of the General Staff Az. R. was arrested by the Turkish special services and taken to Ankara. This is already enough to make the realization of the independence and subjectivity of the authorities in Baku.
            1. Albay
              Albay April 28 2021 01: 18
              -2
              1. The role of the Armenian General Staff is an order of magnitude higher and of the control system in general.
              2.Yes see above paragraph.
              3.About Naryshkin is the same story, there is a problem with facts were not presented.
              4. There was no, the prisoners of the Azerbaijani army were returned.
              All were presented by the Russian command, among them there were neither Turkish soldiers nor Arab militants, nor a single Turkish soldier or officer who was killed.
              5. Stop living with fake news. The chief of the General Staff was not arrested, you can google recently vacationing in Dubai and returned to Baku. He was removed from his post. He was officially sent to the reserve and lives in Baku.
              Learn to assess your defeat correctly. For 44 days you listened to the tales of the press secretary of the Armenian Defense Ministry and still cannot soberly assess what happened.
              https://youtu.be/p9tCEDhWmaU
              1. Butchcassidy
                Butchcassidy April 28 2021 07: 14
                -1
                1. Everything is written in Russian in white. Yes, and they would not have drowned from Ankara and Baku for Pashinyan, had it not been for his lion's share in the collapse of the state apparatus of the army and special services. One 28-year-old head of the National Security Service who has not served in the special services for a day is worth a lot.
                2. The Armed Forces of Armenia did not participate in the war, and this is also the merit of the character from paragraph 1. And the conclusion from this does not change.
                3. Pts. funny conclusion. Again, at the character level, under the influence of characters with expanded consciousness. Demanding facts from the SVR - this causes only a slight smile and a desire to twist a finger to his temple.
                4. Oh wey. Of course not. And there were no Turkish Armed Forces planes. And now the Turks are not building two military bases in Az. R. And Erdogan was not at the parade in Baku.
                5. Pts. funny. Do they believe in such tales in Baku?)) The head of the General Staff disappears during the hostilities from the country, during which he is on the territory of a third state, although why a third? Turkey de facto annexed Az. R. to himself, but this again confirms my thesis.

                And most importantly, neither Baku nor Ankara fought with my country in the new millennium. But in the interests of Turkey, Baku is doing everything to make this happen. Otherwise, it is impossible to evaluate Aliyev's passages with Moscow's accusations of transferring prohibited missiles to Yerevan. And Ankara does not directly lag behind, participating in the aggravation in the Donbass on the side of Kiev.

                So yes, with my country, Russia, you have not yet fought, but, as I believe, this is yet to come.
              2. Butchcassidy
                Butchcassidy 4 May 2021 19: 55
                0
                About militants and co.

                Syrian mercenaries (Muhrab Muhammad al-Shkheri and Youssef Alabet al-Haji) were sentenced to life imprisonment.

                This decision was made by the Kapan residence of the court of general jurisdiction of the Syunik region of the Republic of Armenia.

                Recall, according to the indictment, both Syrians who are not citizens of Azerbaijan, who do not reside permanently on its territory, who are not members of the Armed Forces of Azerbaijan, who are citizens of Syria, participated in the war as part of an organized group, receiving material compensation for this.

                Muhrab Muhammad al-Shkheri and Youssef Alabet al-Haji were accused under paragraph 1 of part 3 of Art. 217 (terrorism), art. 389 (international terrorism), part 1 of art. 34-390 (serious violations of international humanitarian law in an armed conflict) and part 3 of Art. 395 (mercenary).

                Here are photos of these bashi-bazouks. By the way, there are a lot of videos on the Internet with terrorist protesters, mostly Arabs, who are outraged that Turkey and Qatar "threw" them without paying for a "business trip" to Nagorno-Karabakh.

      2. Butchcassidy
        Butchcassidy April 26 2021 23: 46
        -1
        Of course, not a military one. Who did you fight with? With the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh. The RA Armed Forces were still standing in their barracks. Stepanakert's betrayal is on the conscience of those who supported Pashinyan in 2018.

        The head of the Foreign Intelligence Service, Naryshkin, spoke about terrorists from Syria. About Sunnisization, and all the experts speak in the Wahhabi version, many people from Az have fought and are fighting in ISIS (banned in Russia). R. Is this news to you?
  20. Scorpio05
    Scorpio05 April 19 2021 02: 56
    +1
    Again, this effort by the local authors to pull a hedgehog onto the globe, that is, the imposition of a maximum of 60 thousandth (real number before the war) of Nagorno-Karabakh as some kind of real military or political force, allegedly failed a little, they say Armenia did not fully help the poor ))
    1. Butchcassidy
      Butchcassidy April 19 2021 18: 47
      -1
      If it were not for the mistakes of the Armenian leadership that brought Pashinyan to power, there would be no current situation. At one time, people from NK were able to put things in order in Armenia. Now the opposite situation has occurred - immigrants from Armenia have brought chaos to NK.

      The Gospel says: "But Jesus, knowing their thoughts, said to them: every kingdom divided in itself will be desolate; and every city or house divided in itself will not stand."
      Gospel of Matthew 12:25.
  21. Scorpio05
    Scorpio05 April 19 2021 03: 34
    +1
    Quote: Albay
    Destruction of 80 percent of the enemy's military equipment is not a military victory? Almost 10 thousand killed in the ranks of the Armenian army and the liberation of almost the entire occupied territory is not a military victory? Come to Baku, a museum of war trophies has already been opened and there are about 300 pieces of military equipment captured and destroyed from the Armenian armies are demonstrated.
    About Turkomans and the so-called Sunniya, these are ordinary fakes!

    Where will he go? He is Armenian)
    1. Butchcassidy
      Butchcassidy April 19 2021 18: 49
      -2
      What do you care about my nationality? And you flaunt the Nazi conditions of entry to Az. R.? Well this is game a la the Third Reich?
    2. Albay
      Albay April 20 2021 03: 20
      -1
      .
      Where will he go? He is Armenian)

      We are tolerant people, let him come)))
  22. Aleksandr1971
    Aleksandr1971 April 19 2021 04: 45
    -2
    Quote: didra
    When you say to bomb, you forget that people live there. And mostly Russians, by the way.


    That is why I say that it is necessary to eliminate the civil infrastructure only to the west of the Dnieper. Use aviation and cruise missiles to bomb thermal power plants, bridges and dams, city and district administrations, banks, shopping centers and markets, warehouses of goods, ammunition and fuel, transport hubs, especially on the border with the EU.
    Isn't that what democratic countries do? We must follow their path.

    But at the same time, the civil infrastructure to the east of the Dnieper must be left alone. This infrastructure will serve the state of Novorossia, in which the Russians will remain.
  23. Aleksandr1971
    Aleksandr1971 April 19 2021 05: 02
    -3
    Quote: dauria
    The real task of Russia is different - it is to prevent the transformation of Ukraine into a military base of the enemy.

    This is true and vital for Russia.


    Russia will not suffer casualties if it runs a purely air company.

    But this is "bullshit". Sorry for being straightforward. The outcome of the war is decided by the infantry, the aviation is only obliged to make it easier for them.


    As for the bullshit, I think that a ground operation against Ukraine should also be carried out. But only after the complete collapse of the control of Ukraine by its own ground forces. It is necessary to beat Ukraine up from the air for a couple of months.

    Ukraine has 125 aircraft built before 1991. And this is against our 3,5 thousand aircraft, of which 1,5 are active fighters.
    Only half of the Ukrainian Air Force are fighters, which, by the way, have not been modernized. Therefore, the aviation of Ukraine will be easy prey in air battles. The air defense of Ukraine was also built before 1991. And this air defense can be dealt with in a few hours. And then you can "iron" Ukraine from the air for weeks and months. And after that it is necessary to introduce infantry and armored vehicles.
  24. Suleyman
    Suleyman April 19 2021 14: 07
    -2
    Sergei Osipov concocted a notable lie. Not a grain of objectivity, not a grain of truth))
  25. helloween
    helloween April 19 2021 16: 11
    0
    Can you call Patrushev a serious politician, after his words? this clearly showed that in russia everything is decided by one person, and patrushev can stick his tongue you know where and let him wait for the owner's order
  26. Scorpio05
    Scorpio05 April 19 2021 19: 31
    +2
    Quote: ButchCassidy
    What do you care about my nationality? And you flaunt the Nazi conditions of entry to Az. R.? Well this is game a la the Third Reich?

    No welcome winked I mean. that you, most likely, will not show a clear desire to visit Azerbaijan at this time.
  27. alexander 08
    alexander 08 April 20 2021 10: 38
    0
    Yes, nothing has reached the Banderlog and cannot get it! They are stupid by nature, just loose stools, once again visited by heroes! They will again start their moronic song that they are fighting with the Muscovites and Biden help!
  28. Viktoo Kharitonov
    Viktoo Kharitonov April 21 2021 03: 15
    -1
    And who exactly said that the Ukrainians want or can repeat? Who came up with this fake? I have not heard a single such statement from Ukraine. Specifically from the top management. For rent, this fake was invented in Moscow, or in Donetsk. And the Ukrainians, they are not suicides. They understand that the Kremlin only needs a pretext.
    1. Mikle2000
      Mikle2000 April 24 2021 23: 09
      -1
      The very idea of ​​taking control of the devastated territories even frightens Russia. And Ukraine definitely doesn't need it.
  29. Mikle2000
    Mikle2000 April 24 2021 23: 07
    -1
    People in Donbass live better on which side of the contact line? On the Ukrainian side or in the republics?
  30. Angivin
    Angivin April 25 2021 00: 05
    0
    Quote: ButchCassidy
    If it were not for the mistakes of the Armenian leadership that brought Pashinyan to power, there would be no current situation. At one time, people from NK were able to put things in order in Armenia. Now the opposite situation has occurred - immigrants from Armenia have brought chaos to NK.

    The Gospel says: "But Jesus, knowing their thoughts, said to them: every kingdom divided in itself will be desolate; and every city or house divided in itself will not stand."
    Gospel of Matthew 12:25.

    If only, if only .. All the same, what dodgy Armenians you are .. You will find an excuse for everything. And there was no courage, and it will never be.