Behind the impudence of Western politicians lies an elementary fear and inability to solve serious problems
How many materials I have read about how arrogant and stupid the American, and after them the European politicians and generals, who demanded from Russia a report on the movement of troops on its territory. Who just didn’t get rid of this requirement. How many patriots proudly declared that Russia is not like that now and will not be accountable! How many liberals, on the contrary, explained to us the legitimacy of these demands and the validity of the West's fears.
At the same time, due to some coincidence, incomprehensible to me, no one had a question about the reason for such actions. Everything seems to be clear. Ukraine got scared and frightened its masters. The Russian bear slightly moved its shoulders in its den. But is it? I agree with the thesis that often some events have the simplest explanation. Maybe you shouldn't dig deeper here either?
Moreover, if you carefully read the first statement on this matter from the American State Department, you can see exactly this explanation of the requirements:
"The United States is concerned about any attempts by Moscow to intimidate Ukraine, wherever these attempts are carried out - on Russian territory or on the territory of Ukraine."
And now, after a lot of statements and the transfer of units, after Biden's swinish statement about President Putin, the United States slowly began to play back. The rhetoric changed, the American president began to change the plumage from a hawk to a dove, Washington remembered the telephone.
Russian troops in Donbass may disappear and appear suddenly
I will reveal very secret information from the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine. Seven battalion tactical groups disappeared in the Donbas in a year! The Russians have hidden somewhere 5,5-6 thousand servicemen! Last year, according to the Minister of Defense of Ukraine, there were 35 BTGs, and this year, according to the report of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense, there are 28 of them!
How are the intelligence data of the Armed Forces of Ukraine connected with the impudent demands of the West on Russia?
In order to understand this, it is enough to take another "work" of an ardent nationalist and specialist in military affairs, who remained a conscript for the rest of his life, Yuri Butusov. It was he, perhaps without suspecting it himself, who revealed the mechanism of creating the illusion of Russia's weakness among the Ukrainians and the West. To begin with, about Russian power:
“At the moment, the 150th Motorized Rifle Division of the Southern Military District, the 3rd Motorized Rifle Division of the Western Military District are deployed on the border with Ukraine, the 74th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the Central Military District is being transferred to Ukraine. In Crimea - the 126th coastal defense motorized rifle brigade, the 810th marine brigade and the 56th airborne assault brigade. These forces are a serious threat, but not sufficient for a deep offensive operation. "
It is clear that I again cite the data that are intended for domestic and Western use. It is necessary to show the strength of the Russian army. The author speaks of the million-strong army that the Russians have today. But right there, literally through a paragraph, new information appears:
“According to official data, now the total number of ground forces of the RF Armed Forces: ground forces - 280 thousand servicemen; airborne troops - 45 thousand troops; marines - up to 13 thousand troops. Among them are numerous non-combat units and formations, plus missilemen, anti-aircraft gunners, engineers, plus conscripts, plus personnel of training centers, arsenals, bases, etc. "
Confused by the numbers? Nothing. The main thing is to believe. And to know these numbers in the order in which they are indicated by the Ukrainian side and in which they are relayed to NATO headquarters and the Pentagon.
In 2014-2015, Russia has already "introduced" its troops to Donbass. And it was these troops, using the factor of surprise, that became the authors of the victories of the republican units and subdivisions during that period. Ukrainian intelligence, however, represented by "Infornapalm", counted as many as 39 Russian BTGs in Donbas. At that time, this was all that the Russian army could give at all. Therefore, they did not continue to attack the valiant ukrovoinov.
But today Ukraine needs help from NATO. Simply because the army of the northern neighbor has dramatically increased the number of BTGs in its composition. The danger was now real. And there is nothing that the Russian troops are located on a vast territory. Nothing that the Russian army "threatens" the Balts, Northern Europe, Poles. All these battalions are "intended" for an attack on Ukraine:
“On September 7, 2018, Chief of the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov assessed the combat readiness of the ground forces of the RF Armed Forces:
“Today the Land and Airborne Forces have 126 battalion tactical groups, staffed by contract soldiers and are in constant readiness to carry out combat missions. Mostly contract servicemen serve in combat units. "
“Today the Land and Airborne Forces have 126 battalion tactical groups, staffed by contract soldiers and are in constant readiness to carry out combat missions. Mostly contract servicemen serve in combat units. "
And now for the Western military. In order for them to understand how strong and how defenseless the Ukrainian army is.
“However, Ukraine also has superiority in a number of critical components:
1. Motivation of servicemen who defend their homeland.
2. Availability of a large trained reserve with combat experience and active support of civil society.
3. The presence, albeit outdated, but numerous weapons systems. And also the production and supply of many thousands of anti-tank guided missiles "Stugna", "Korsar", "Javelin".
4. Urbanized terrain, suitable for long-term focus defense of settlements. "
1. Motivation of servicemen who defend their homeland.
2. Availability of a large trained reserve with combat experience and active support of civil society.
3. The presence, albeit outdated, but numerous weapons systems. And also the production and supply of many thousands of anti-tank guided missiles "Stugna", "Korsar", "Javelin".
4. Urbanized terrain, suitable for long-term focus defense of settlements. "
The whole world is the sphere of interests of the United States, and we want to talk about your maneuvers.
Of course, it is strange to think that politicians and military personnel of NATO countries believe these Ukrainian fairy tales. But in fact, there is nothing strange about this. World politics has in its arsenal such a number of various meanness and nastiness, provocations and lies that it is simply ridiculous to talk about the honesty of diplomats. What is needed at the moment for your country will be defended on international platforms as the truth.
Let me remind you of one statement made by Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov. In my opinion, this is the statement to which Washington responded. Something I do not remember that in this way someone threw a dirty rag to American diplomats in modern times:
"Russia is taking the steps on its territory that it considers necessary, and completely ignores signals from the United States that have nothing to do with this."
Translated into common language it sounds shorter: “None of your business! We do not violate anything, no agreements, and it will be more dear to you to poke your nose into our affairs ... "
I don’t think the Americans didn’t understand that it’s stupid to get involved in a diplomatic war. Too many questions about US behavior in various countries of the world may arise in the UN Security Council.
It is much more interesting to deal with the statements made by the defense ministers of France and Germany after Ryabkov's answer. We don't have many naive people. There are very few of those who really thought that the belligerent French and Germans would receive a different answer from Russia than did the peace-loving Americans. But statements have been made and answers have been received. Jean-Yves Le Drian and Annegret Crump-Karrenbauer clearly got it in the nose not only from our Foreign Ministry, but also from the local media.
It is obvious that all these statements are directed towards Kiev. And Washington, Berlin, and Paris actually announced that they would help Ukraine. Council, weapons, ammunition, instructors. But their military does not intend to meddle in Donbass. For NATO countries, as well as for Kiev, a big war is fraught with "loss of statehood."
Moreover, it seems to me that the Europeans do not need a "war at hand" at all. The lockdown brought too many problems. Too much has changed and is changing right now within Europe. And the understanding that with all its superiority in the number of troops, with a huge difference in the economy and other advantages, Europe may not resist the onslaught of Russia. The outcome of the great war is unknown.
Let's "confront" traditionally
Against the background of a multitude of comments and analytical materials in the press, one person, one minister of the Russian government, looked rather strange. Moreover, everything that the politicians of other countries talked about concerns him directly. And it is he who has real information on the actions of the Russian army and the armies of other states, no less than President Putin. I'm talking about Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.
The Russian army clearly followed Shoigu's orders, acted in accordance with previously approved plans, and moved along previously announced routes. Soldiers and officers once again reported on the work done in half a year in conditions close to combat. The General Staff and other departments of the Ministry of Defense worked in exactly the same way.
Why?
Probably, simply because for the military, any words must be backed up by deeds. And they know not only what the enemy is talking about, but also what he is just thinking about. Especially at the strategic level.
The answer of the Russian minister did follow. April 13 at a meeting in Severomorsk:
“There is a movement of troops in Europe to the Russian borders. The main forces are concentrated in the Black Sea and Baltic region. "
“The main forces are concentrated in the Black Sea and Baltic region. In total, 40 thousand foreign servicemen and 15 thousand units of weapons and military equipment, including strategic ones, will be concentrated near the territory of the Russian Federation. aviation».
"In Poland and the Baltic countries, the US forces are strengthening, the American" four to thirty "concept has been adopted and is being implemented, the intensity of aerial reconnaissance has doubled compared to last year and the intensity of naval reconnaissance has been increased by half.
For those who can “read between the lines”, these particles form a picture quite familiar to our time. NATO, and the United States in particular, absolutely does not want to change the format of confrontation that has been existing for a long time. NATO troops are quietly creeping up to the Russian borders, and in response, Russia is also not particularly noisy about the emergence of new targets for the Aerospace Forces and the Strategic Missile Forces.
I really liked the answer of our Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to the question of why Russia is reacting so harshly to the events in Ukraine.
“The answer is very simple: we live there, this is our country. But what the United States is doing in the form of its ships, military personnel, who constantly organize some kind of NATO activities in Ukraine, thousands of kilometers from their own territory - this question remains unanswered. "
It seems to me that NATO has made it very clear to Russia that it prefers to return to traditional methods of confrontation. It is proposed to “forget” about those threatening statements, about insults, about stupid attempts to intimidate Russia and return to the status quo. Honestly, I am not yet clear on Moscow's reaction to this proposal.
Why did the West need all this
The fact that the United States is playing back, I already wrote above. Likewise, we see such actions from other NATO countries. Yes, armies are on high alert. Yes, the press is escalating the situation. But it seems to me that the decision has already been made. Even the offer to meet in Finland, which came to Putin during a telephone conversation with Biden, fits into this statement.
Let me remind you of another statement by Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov. Again, for some reason not noticed in Russia. But very well understood in the USA. Never before have Russian diplomats of this level called the United States an adversary of Russia. We were everything, anything, but not opponents. In contrast, by the way, from the statements of American diplomats.
"The United States is our adversary, doing everything to undermine Russia's position in the international arena."
Then why?
The answer, it seems to me, lies in the actions of Kiev in the Donbass. The audacity that Zelensky is demonstrating today has already begun to strain both Europeans and Americans. Zelensky is no longer asking to admit Ukraine to NATO, he is demanding. And Paris and Berlin cannot do anything simply because they do not know what Biden has decided.
They failed to frighten Russia.
What's more, the rattling weapons led to a significant aggravation of security problems not only on the borders of the Russian Federation, but also throughout Europe and in the United States. NATO recalled Russia's new military doctrine, which allows strikes not only at troops, but also at decision-making centers.
Here are two more quotes from the latest statements by high-ranking politicians in the United States and Russia.
“The United States is increasingly concerned about the recent rise in Russian aggression in eastern Ukraine, including the movement of Russian troops to the Ukrainian border. There are now more Russian troops on the Russian-Ukrainian border than at any other time in the entire period since 2014, ”
- White House press secretary Jen Psaki on April 8 during a briefing.
“Next to us is a country where civil war is about to resume. Next to us is a country in which we do not exclude that the leadership will again consider it possible to solve the internal problem by force. Is it dangerous for us? Of course it's dangerous. Should we take steps to ensure our safety? Should. This is what we are doing ”,
- Press Secretary of President Putin Dmitry Peskov, “Moscow. Kremlin. Putin "TV channel" Russia 1 ".
So, in my opinion, the West understood that it would be impossible to simply abandon Kiev and the Minsk Agreements due to the vague position of the United States. Letting the situation take its course is also more expensive for yourself. If Ukraine explodes from the inside with a civil war, it will not seem enough to anyone. Russia is in no hurry to solve the problem by military means.
Ukraine has turned into a territory that, by and large, is no longer needed by anyone. This is a territory that even plunders turns out to be more expensive. That is why it is necessary to change the "Minsk" format of negotiations. In fact, abandon the "Minsk", remember Kuchma's statement on this matter, and go to the format of Russia, Ukraine, the United States, France and Germany.
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