Arctic knot: does Russia need the Northern Sea Route

Source: dvinaland.ru

Difficult Arctic

The development of the Arctic was always very difficult for the Soviet and Russian statehood history... First of all, these are gigantic expanses that occupy 18% of the territory of Russia, where no more than 2% of the country's population live. In absolute terms, this is about 2,4 million people.

The initial logic of the leadership of the Soviet Union boiled down to large-scale development of the Arctic with the construction of large processing plants and infrastructure development. That is, to put it simply, no one really thought about the payback of projects and, moreover, about what the further operation of the erected would cost.

It is for this reason that many cities have appeared in the Arctic zone, in which people live in extreme conditions all year round - Salekhard, Naryan-Mar, Norilsk and many others. By the way, 40% of the total population of this entire region of the Earth lives on the territory of the Russian Arctic. At the same time, the total area of ​​the world Arctic is about 25-27 million square meters. kilometers, of which Russia owns only 3 million.

To understand the imbalance that formed during the Soviet era, it is enough to look at the settlements of the Arctic territories of Canada and Russia. In Northern Canada, partly related to the described region, there are about 100 thousand people. In Danish Greenland, there are just over 55 thousand. In the Russian Arctic, we repeat - about 2,4 million people. The infrastructure created in Soviet times is now a serious burden on the Russian budget. Yakutia, Chukotka and the Arkhangelsk region have been subsidized regions of the country for many years. The rest are either middling or barely making ends meet. There is only one exception - the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, which from year to year demonstrates an enviable growth rate of welfare.

With such a costly legacy, Russia needed to do something. Nobody was going to leave the Arctic to its own devices - the natural resources here are of global importance, which have not yet been fully explored. But no one was going to continue the development according to the "Soviet model". Attracting private investors who know how to count money and risks turned out to be one of the ways out.

In 2002, in addition to government agencies, Lukoil, Rosneft and Gazprom were included in the Council for the Problems of the Far North and the Arctic. From the practice of building cities with hospitals, kindergartens, schools and everything else, they moved to compact rotational camps with autonomous power supply. It turned out that it is much cheaper not to cut roads in the permafrost to the continental Russian south, but to deliver the mined by sea to Murmansk or St. Petersburg, for example. Or directly for export, bypassing Russian ports.

Global warming, which is driving the Europeans crazy, played into the hands of the nascent Northern Sea Route. The ice gradually began to recede, simplifying not only navigation, but also the extraction of natural resources on the shelf. However, it turned out to be beautiful only in theory.

Dear Arctic

Since 2015, the Russian leadership has planned to develop the region according to the model of localized centers - Kola, Arkhangelsk, Nenets, Yamalo-Nenets, Vorkuta, Taimyr-Turukhansk, North Yakutsk and Chukotsk. It would seem logical - the creation of such “growth points” on the Arctic map will save resources and time. The concept said, in particular

"Focal type of development on the basis of large deposits of strategic types of minerals, both today and in the future, remains the only acceptable in the Arctic."

But already in September 2020, an updated strategy appears, providing for the development of the Russian Arctic region as a single macroregion. This means that the Russian leadership is partially returning to the Soviet model of the widespread settlement of the Arctic. This is largely due to the hopes for the development of another regional megaproject - the Northern Sea Route. The state's plans for it are simply grandiose. The task was set to compete with the Suez Canal and its own Trans-Siberian Railway.

Arctic Norilsk. Source: muzeiludei.ru

When the container ship Ever Given closed the Suez Canal on March 29, Russia began to advertise the reliability and benefits of the Northern Sea Route. If you take an icebreaker with you, then there is simply no place to get stuck on it. But for now, shipping merchant ships across Russia's northern coastal edge is very risky and challenging.

In 2018, a container ship Venta Maers passed through the Vladivostok - Busan - St. Petersburg route as an experiment. Since then, no one has dared to repeat such a journey. This indicates poor development of the route, difficult navigation conditions and low final profit. So far, transport operators see no commercial interest in using the Northern Sea Route. The presence of ice reduces the average speed of cargo ships, and the benefits of a short distance no longer seem so real.

In general, there are a lot of interesting things about the calculations of the benefits of using the Russian northern route relative to the route through the Suez Canal. At a speed of 15 knots, a conventional container ship from London to Yokohama along the Northern Sea Route will reach in 18 days. That's two weeks faster than a similar speed across Suez. But such a speed cannot be achieved on the Russian route - a maximum of 9 knots. At this rate, the container ship will sail through the northern seas for exactly the same 32 days as through the Suez Canal. But that's not all.

Container ships must enter ports to replenish supplies at least every 3-4 thousand kilometers. And the Russian sea route so far cannot offer anything of the kind. The operator of a cargo ship is forced to take on board more provisions and fuel, which means less payload. The benefits of a shorter route (40% shorter than the Suez route) are offset by high associated costs. For example, for the services of an icebreaker, without which there is still nothing on the Northern Sea Route.

Experts say there is not a single major port from Vladivostok to Rotterdam itself capable of receiving world-class container ships. The advertised port of Sabetta on Yamal is fully occupied by the LNG project. Now, to successfully pass world-class container ships along the 3000-mile zone of the Russian coast, 16 major ports must be built! Each port is not only a receiving terminal, but also a lot of dredging and filling works.

In addition to these problems, the Northern Route lacks icebreakers - from the new series, only Arktika is still in service. For now, there is hope for rapid global warming, when there will be less ice and the average speed of ships' passage will correspond to the world ones.

Something similar is dreamed of by government analysts off the coast of the Russian Arctic.
Source: © AP Photo / Sam Madgy

Meanwhile, the government is painting very bright prospects for the Northern Sea Route. By 2024, the cargo turnover on the highway should grow from the current 33 million tons to 80 million. And by 2035, in general, jump to 160 million tons, of which 10 million should be in transit. The most interesting thing is that the figure of 80 million tons should be achieved through export from the inner territories of the Arctic.

The main problems will be associated with the extremely poor development of the eastern part of the Arctic sea route. In fact, there is nothing to the east of Norilsk and will not be for many years. There is no infrastructure, no production facilities, no large ports. For example, Chukotka will be connected to a single Internet network only by 2024, when an underwater optical fiber is pulled up to the region.

The construction of all this in total will cost the Russian budget hundreds of billions of rubles with vague prospects for recoupment. That is, in the future there is no real production and mining base that would allow increasing the cargo turnover on the Northern Sea Route to 80 and, moreover, 160 million tons. The hope for the transit of goods, as we can see from the example of the pilot 2018, is not particularly visible.

Hack and predictor Aviator

Returning to the title of the article, let's try to answer the question: does Russia need the Northern Sea Route? Let's even clarify whether it is needed in the modern sense?

Probably not.

Russia runs the risk of creating a cumbersome structure, investing gigantic funds and facing the lack of demand for the Northern Sea Route. The transformation of the Arctic into a mega-region, its merger with the Far East will gradually turn into an analogue of the Soviet "construction of the century". It will be a pity to abandon this construction site in the future, and there will be no strength left to bring it to the end.

Unfortunately (or fortunately), the Arctic region is not intended for hundreds of thousands and, moreover, millions of people. Too expensive for both health and budget. Only compact living in workers' settlements and a rotational work method.

And the Northern Sea Route is an excellent highway for the quick and inexpensive export of Arctic hydrocarbons and other minerals. No more.

Comments

[Vladimir_2U]

development of the Arctic with the construction of large processing plants and infrastructure development. That is, to put it simply, no one really thought about the payback of projects and, all the more, about what the further operation of the erected will cost.

Apparently, the Bolsheviks were completely idiots.

Attracting private investors who know how to count money and risks turned out to be one of the ways out.
In 2002, in addition to government agencies, Lukoil, Rosneft and Gazprom were included in the Council for the Problems of the Far North and the Arctic.

But here, babah, "private investors" to help! Is it okay that these "investors" appeared on the Soviet infrastructure, which they created "without really thinking about recoupment" in the USSR?

[Far B]

It somehow falls out of the author's mind that under the Union of the North they were developing rapidly.

That is, to put it simply, no one really thought about the payback of projects and, moreover, about what the further operation of the erected

Projects paid off. It was just that the optimal approach to investing forces and funds was found (social services were largely contained by city-forming enterprises, Moscow provided assistance, and did not pump taxes with a pump, and most importantly, there were no effective managers with their crazy requests, yachts and palaces.

With such an expensive legacy, Russia needed to do something

Well yes. Done? And how are you doing?

[Civil]

1. The Northern Sea Route is needed. And the point. This path goes where our country is and these places need to be developed without options.
2. That's just need to develop while living in Tiksi, for example, to see and understand what and how is happening there. Even if on a rotational basis. But not from offices in Moscow.

[Vladimir_2U]

Quote: Civil

But not from offices in Moscow

And not with the same approach as the author of the article.

[Machito]

The remains of mammoths are found in the North. The largest elephants lived in the Arctic and Subpolar regions. What did they eat there? The climate was different, warmer. Maybe he'll get warmer again? Modern science has not yet reached the level to draw an unambiguous conclusion. The polar day, the sun shining around the clock, produced enough food to feed the Arctic.
It was not the Bolsheviks who began to explore the Arctic, but the Novgorodians a thousand years ago. For a thousand years, Russian explorers and pioneers have been rushing to the North.
The author argues that it is expensive to provide for the lives of people in the north. Duck 60-70% of the territory of the Russian Federation is located on the Permafrost. Give it all up? Move to the South? Heating is not needed in Turkey. What about? To transport all Russians to Turkey and the problem of the development of the Arctic is solved. The Arctic will be mastered by other peoples. For example, the Chinese.
SOM on Ermak dreamed of reaching the North Pole and passing through the NSR. Failed. And Vilkitsky smog in one navigation and named the strait by his own name.
The polar icebreaker fleet is the only fleet that surpasses the fleet of sworn friends from the US and NATO. The North Pole is the shortest and least guarded road to the shores of a very unfriendly America. How many decades will it take for our Navy to catch up with the US Navy? How many decades will it take for the United States to catch up with Russia in the Arctic? The ice will melt faster than the United States will catch up with Russia in the Arctic.
The author is mistaken in his conclusions.
This is worse than a crime. This is mistake. (FROM)

[SovAr238A]

Quote: Vladimir_2U

Quote: Civil

But not from offices in Moscow

And not with the same approach as the author of the article.

Have you ever been to Zapolyarka?
Well, at least a couple of weeks?

[Vladimir_2U]

Quote: SovAr238A

Have you ever been to Zapolyarka?
Well, at least a couple of weeks?

I am not, as is the author. Are you against the development of the Arctic and Northern Sea Route?

[SovAr238A]

Quote: Vladimir_2U

Quote: SovAr238A

Have you ever been to Zapolyarka?
Well, at least a couple of weeks?

I am not, as is the author. Are you against the development of the Arctic and Northern Sea Route?

I mean that only those who know the north and who work in it should deal with this issue.

Residents of the south, middle lane - do not even imagine what the north is and work there.
Everything is simple for them!
The wealth of the country, scoop, profits, etc.
Does anyone know how badly the technique breaks down there?
What funds are needed to maintain equipment in working order?
My UAZs that work there spend about 500 thousand rubles annually on each one, only on repairs. Maintaining them in working order.
Rotational camps, salaries, flights.
This is all prohibitively expensive in fact.
Replacement for wear, only one kilometer of the "pipe", any oil and gas pipeline coming from Yamal, is estimated at one billion rubles.
One billion!
Filling the same roads to the oil bushes with sand, arranging repair beds - many hundreds of millions of rubles.
The benefits are actually not as many as they seem from the Krasnodar couch.

And the Northern Sea Route does not really have any economic value in the overall cut of global traffic. No.
He is completely unstable from the word.
Even if there will be warming for 10 years, then one critical month will be enough, in which everything will be covered with ice for many months. And everything will suddenly become impassable again.
And the economy does not need instability.
Moreover, practically all over the world there should be rescue centers in coastal zones. That there would be a certain time lag for providing assistance with the SOS signal.
And the possibility of providing this assistance.
No one will plan the development of their business where 90% of its success or ruin depends on the climate and weather.

Container carriers work like buses. With small stops.
Containers along the way, make 2-3-5-8 transfers.
The same container, shipped from Hong Kong to Miami - changes along the way, up to 5 container ships.
Collecting 20 thousand containers from the same Hong Kong to Rotterdam, for a full load of a container ship, for a direct route will take 3-4 months, and this is an unjustified expense for senders and recipients, both in terms of money and time.
Tanker? They don't make much sense there either.
Oil production and shipping centers are mainly in the Persian Gulf, and terminals on warm seas.

What to drive there?
If people knew how the world sea trade transport works in reality, they would understand the entire inexpediency of the NSR for the world transport fleet.

SMP - only we need it.
For the army, navy.

And for the alleged development of the North?
This is nonsense and populism.

For the development of the economy of the North only when it is really economically feasible.
That it would be beneficial for the country in the end.
And this will be possible only when the resources necessary for the world will be so expensive that there would be an opportunity to extract them profitably in these most difficult-to-develop areas of the country.
If it is unprofitable for the country, then by pumping money into it, the country goes into a deficit.
And the deficit is also a decrease in wages for state employees, a decrease in defense programs, a reduction in the army, kindergartens, and schools. We are like a country. we can just overstrain.

Well, or the second option.
Introduce for all residents of the country living below the zones of the Far North and those equated to them - an additional tax on the development of the North - 10% of income.
Well, what would we say to support the country, the Northern Sea Route, patriotism ...
Will everyone be ready for this?
:)))))

[Sfurei]

Of course, all the plans for the SevMor route are made by fools. And the leaders are doing some stupid things, and they all come to explore the northern regions in flip flops and shorts, not knowing what the north is ... Do you think this is so ??? Well, you say stupidity ..
Experienced specialists who know their work and have definitely been to the north are used to forecast and evaluate northern projects.
Otherwise, how is it that icebreakers are working here, and barges are being carried out, and northern settlements are being built (both military and for production) and new runways are laid and 2,4 million people live in the north and do not die in one year from unexpected frost?
So it's stupid to close everything in the north and not invest ... And the SevMor route must be developed ALWAYS. They also said about the Transib: "... why the heck such investments, there are 100 thousand Russians living there. It would be better if the peasants were helped .." for example, to repair UAZ vehicles.
We need to develop our regions, even if they are subsidized at the moment and will pay off in 20-40 years. This is the strategic planning and development of the country.

[SovAr238A]

Quote: Sfurei

Of course, all the plans for the SevMor route are made by fools. And the leaders are doing some stupid things, and they all come to explore the northern regions in flip flops and shorts, not knowing what the north is ... Do you think this is so ??? Well, you say stupidity ..
Experienced specialists who know their work and have definitely been to the north are used to forecast and evaluate northern projects.
Otherwise, how is it that icebreakers are working here, and barges are being carried out, and northern settlements are being built (both military and for production) and new runways are laid and 2,4 million people live in the north and do not die in one year from unexpected frost?
So it's stupid to close everything in the north and not invest ... And the SevMor route must be developed ALWAYS. They also said about the Transib: "... why the heck such investments, there are 100 thousand Russians living there. It would be better if the peasants were helped .." for example, to repair UAZ vehicles.
We need to develop our regions, even if they are subsidized at the moment and will pay off in 20-40 years. This is the strategic planning and development of the country.

Do not substitute concepts and do not distort.
The construction of the Transib began only when there was a need for it.
Not earlier and not later.
BAM also began to be built when the need arose.
And not with a lag "maybe in 20-40 years it will be needed" ...
Or it may not be needed.
After all, neither Dixon, nor Tiksi, nor Anadyr were needed ...
Everything that was built - everything was abandoned in the end, and everything in the shortest possible time turned into nothing.

You need to build only when you ALREADY NEEDED!

And I'm wondering who counted 2,4 million people ...
What did you count then?
The population of the Murmansk and Arkhangelsk regions?
Who live in a normal civilization.
And which even cannot be compared with the availability of "civilization", for example, the same Tiksi or Dixon.

And the SMP needs Dixon, Tiksi, Anadyr, Pevek.
Will you drive a 400-meter container ship to Dudinka?

And the north is also Vorkuta.
Where apartments for some reason cost the price of a smartphone.

Again.
You only need to develop what you need already.
in the short term. maximum 5 years.
this is enough time for normal development at the current level of technical progress.
Otherwise, everything built and unclaimed will collapse again.
Well, or pay an additional tax of 10% of your salary / pension - for that. which may be useful in 40 years.

And yes.
There is no need to remember how the trans-Siberian was built with picks and shovels and the soil was transported in wheelbarrows.

[Sfurei]

The strategy for the development of regions and the country as a whole cannot be limited to ".. It is necessary to build only when it ALREADY IS NECESSARY! .." If you treat planning this way, the Country will ALWAYS be in POP. If you want to eat now, then it is too late to sow the fields and start feeding the cattle. You will not live to see germination. Or, for example, if no one was sick this month, can we close the hospital and open it only if someone is sick? about teaching schoolchildren to develop further examples? At the country level, this scheme works the same way.
The same Transib began to be built when it was already too late.
Many projects require forecasting and elaboration in advance. The issue of regional development is multifaceted.
The same SevMor route can be used for domestic transportation and, having worked out the logistics and methodology, enter the international market.

[SovAr238A]

Quote: Sfurei

The strategy for the development of regions and the country as a whole cannot be limited to ".. It is necessary to build only when it ALREADY IS NECESSARY! .." If you treat planning this way, the Country will ALWAYS be in POP. If you want to eat now, then it is too late to sow the fields and start feeding the cattle. You will not live to see germination. Or, for example, if no one was sick this month, can we close the hospital and open it only if someone is sick? about teaching schoolchildren to develop further examples? At the country level, this scheme works the same way.
The same Transib began to be built when it was already too late.
Many projects require forecasting and elaboration in advance. The issue of regional development is multifaceted.
The same SevMor route can be used for domestic transportation and, having worked out the logistics and methodology, enter the international market.

Again.
Right away.
The NSR still exists.
For northern delivery to our facilities and the cities of Pevek, Tiksi.
For import / export from Norilsk.
He is and he exists and he already provides all our existing needs.
Both the logistics and the methodology for the supply of our cities and facilities exist and are well established.

Let me ask you to answer, what are you going to carry along the NSR in the future?
Just justify pliz.
And then some are some common words.

[Scharnhorst]

Dear Al! Do not get excited and exhale. At the expense of world trade and container ships, you are wrong. Since you yourself understand about the export of northern resources by our tankers and gas carriers to both ends of the NSR, then you are not hopeless. You also acknowledge the issues and interests of the country's defense capability on the NSR. Not all dimensions and equipment can be transported from end to end of the country by rail, you need a NSR. You emphasize the high cost of repairing equipment and maintaining an efficient infrastructure for the transportation of oil and gas. I agree that in the North it is difficult and expensive. But look at what the state has become in the middle zone southwest of Moscow (Ukraine). The GTS was not repaired either by themselves, or on the advice of western beneficiaries, or on the advice of an eastern seller. The GTS laid the golden eggs. And the climate is optimal, and the population density is higher than in the Arctic, and the costs are not comparable with the northern ones. This country, according to your recipe, continued to cultivate the Soviet legacy and did not make long-term investments in the long term. According to your Vedas,

You only need to develop what you need already.
in the short term. maximum 5 years.
this is enough time for normal development at the current level of technical progress.
Otherwise, everything built and unclaimed will collapse again.

Let me guess! After all, you are opposed to the construction of an aircraft carrier for the Russian Navy, and the railway track and bridge to Sakhalin will not pay off in 20 years, the development of space programs will not be profitable now and in 40 years from now. If I guessed right - with you the first plus sign to my comment. Immediate benefit, nothing personal!

[SovAr238A]

Quote: Scharnhorst

Dear Al! Do not get excited and exhale.

You have a plus sign from me and it will be so!
Default. :)

But.
Let's be honest, for me north is analogous to space.
that's real.
And here and there - living conditions, extremely negative to a person. to the technique.
Well, in reality, the Far North in the form of coastal towns such as Tiksi, Dikson, Anadyr - they are akin to space.

And we are now sending people into space to do the work that can only be done in space. And only people.
And now this very work in space is enough for ...
2-5 people in orbit.
Enough!
There are only five astronauts for 7 billion people living on planet Earth.
And they have no more tasks than they already have.
There were many projects and experiments in medicine. metallurgy, biology in space. Which either showed their unfoundedness, or insolvency, or prohibitive high cost.
Since the 60s.
60 years have passed - has something changed?
No.
If there were really necessary tasks. which could only be carried out in space - the number of people, space stations - would immediately begin to increase.
If there were such tasks.

The state of our (human) science and technology would allow, within 10-15 years, to create stations and send people.
Absolutely the same applies to the North.
How much humanity now needs to be for the current and future infrastructure of the North - so much is there.
All that needs to be done now is that they are already doing so much.

And they don't have more tasks now.
Simply no...


And the populists who grew up on the slogans "Space is ours!", "The North is ours!" - they do not understand this.

They are already ready to send 100 space stations and 10 thousand people into space, without thinking about: "Why are they needed there now?"
They have a thesis "in 20-40 years"
Just substitute North for Space.

And everything will be exactly the same.
I hope you understand my analogy.

[IvaNik]

The construction of the Transib began when the opportunity arose, and not when it was necessary. And its construction led to the accelerated development of the Siberian region. And the presence of a transib allowed the Stolypin peasant reform and the development of new Siberian regions, which later, in Soviet times, made it possible to create new industrial centers in the Urals and Siberia, as well as in the Far East. And there is nothing worse than temporary workers, came to work, dirtied everything and left for.
And yes, I lived in Oymyakon during the Soviet era and learned from myself what the northern delivery is and the country's policy for the development of the north. And then I saw what all that territory was turning into when the government abandoned them.
And now the country needs in excess of the costs of restoring lost and building new facilities. I know that at one time in the Soviet Union they considered different options for the development of these territories, and I think that they chose the most profitable and profitable, and not only in economic terms.
And this article appeared like a time machine from the 90s, then various foreign government advisers recommended the ideas of rotational development.

[Xscorpion]

... They began to build the Transib only when the need arose for it.
Not earlier and not later.

Only it was built very late. If it had been built 10 years earlier, the result of the Russian-Japanese war would have been different, since the Japanese would have been opposed not by the small garrisons of Port Arthur and Vladivostok, but by tens, or even hundreds of thousands of bayonets of full-fledged divisions of the Russian army. So you need to think before, not after.

[IvaNik]

The construction of the Transib began in 1891, and the movement began in November 1901. And the regular railway service between St. Petersburg, Vladivostok and Port Arthur in July 1903. And from October 1905, the railway line was completely ready without the use of ferry crossings.
And the defeat in the 1905 war is the result of the betrayal of some high-ranking officials, and that's another topic.

[Xscorpion]

Quote: IvaNik

The construction of the Transib began in 1891, and the movement began in November 1901. And the regular railway service between St. Petersburg, Vladivostok and Port Arthur in July 1903. And from October 1905, the railway line was completely ready without the use of ferry crossings.
And the defeat in the 1905 war is the result of the betrayal of some high-ranking officials, and that's another topic.

It was precisely from October 1905 that only normal communication began. Before that there was only seasonal communication, since Baikal blocked the way for the winter and only in the summer the ferry crossing worked. But the war ended several months ago. The result of the loss is largely due to the lack of mobility of troops, the impossibility of them quick transfer from west to east, that is, due to the lack of a full-fledged railway.

[Sahalinets]

The construction of the Transib began only when there was a need for it.
Not earlier and not later.

Oh, how wrong you are! The need arose already in 1860 after the annexation of Primorye and Priamurye. And there were a lot of projects. But there was no money! That's how they dug in - and so they began to build! I am writing competently, studied in detail.

You only need to develop what you need already.
in the short term. maximum 5 years.

Not even funny. Business and population follow the infrastructure, not ahead of it! That way we will not develop anything at all. BAM now is not just a loaded, but an overloaded highway, it is being actively expanded, and in fact in the 90s would-be economists yelled - there is nothing to transport!
Well, they began to build it back in the 1930s ...

[matross]

Quote: SovAr238A

Container carriers work like buses. With small stops.
Containers along the way, make 2-3-5-8 transfers.
The same container, shipped from Hong Kong to Miami - changes along the way, up to 5 container ships.
Collecting 20 thousand containers from the same Hong Kong to Rotterdam, for a full load of a container ship, for a direct route will take 3-4 months, and this is an unjustified expense for senders and recipients, both in terms of money and time.

Thank you! Finally, someone explained the question on container ships normally on the fingers

Quote: SovAr238A

If people knew how the world sea trade transport works in reality, they would understand the entire inexpediency of the NSR for the world transport fleet.

With containers and tankers, the question is clear. The first is unrealistic, the second is only for what was obtained at home. But other? Forest, cars, generals? If there is wiring at real prices and at least 12-13 knots, why not carry, say, the same cars from China to Europe via the NSR?

[SovAr238A]

Quote: matRoss

With containers and tankers, the question is clear. The first is unrealistic, the second is only for what was obtained at home. But other? Forest, cars, generals? If there is wiring at real prices and at least 12-13 knots, why not carry, say, the same cars from China to Europe via the NSR?

Cars from China are a drop in the ocean in order to equip the infrastructure for the NSR in accordance with "the right way" ...
The same is true for timber and box cargo.
Because if you do it "right," then you need to do it the way it is now, "from Shanghai to Suez."
With a bunch of ports
4 dozen nuclear icebreakers, etc.
With a bunch of all sorts of supporting the global merchant fleet - companies and representatives. repair, providing.
There are also customs officers. pilots, ecologists, i.e. with all the infrastructure laid down by the seaport.
But why?
If loading and unloading in these ports is simply not needed by the international merchant fleet? For them it will be a normal transoceanic crossing.

They will have piece transitions.

And we carry everything anyway. what do we need for the "northern delivery" ...
How much Norilsk Nickel managed to produce - so much was taken out.
How much Sabetta managed to produce - so much was taken out.
No more and no less.
And the ports still freeze in winter.
Does not matter. Even with global warming.
Perennial ice goes to the North. but the coastal strip freezes anyway.
The river mouths are freezing.
This is not Sochi, they freeze in winter.


If we build there 5 ports equal to Ust-Luga or the port of Kavkaz - what will this change?
Absolutely nothing.
Because. that there is no cargo there.
And minerals must also be developed and transported to the port.
There are also swamps and permafrost.
There is simply no soil.
And hundreds and thousands of kilometers to the nearest possible development sites.


Therefore, only our army and navy.
And for them, the existing infrastructure of the NSR is in abundance.

[Sfurei]

Everything is standard and usual. Extracted natural resources: Nickel, LNG, Oil, possibly fertilizers, etc. from north to west and east of the NSR.
Back equipment, products, etc. Plus all the seasonality of postings for the Navy.
It is foolish to deny that the freight traffic along the NSR will grow, maybe not at the same pace as stated, but enough as the needs increase.
Otherwise, for whom are these unreasonable (including foreign) merchants buying ice-class tankers? And they plan to continue producing them.
I think that foreign ships traveling to the EU will gradually catch up, initially in the summer period, with the connection gradually in the summer-autumn period, etc.
Accordingly, the increase in shipping and the development of infrastructure will unambiguously occur and there is no way to get away from it.

[SovAr238A]

Quote: Sfurei

Everything is standard and usual. Extracted natural resources: Nickel, LNG, Oil, possibly fertilizers, etc. from north to west and east of the NSR.
Back equipment, products, etc. Plus all the seasonality of postings for the Navy.
It is foolish to deny that the freight traffic along the NSR will grow, maybe not at the same pace as stated, but enough as the needs increase.
Otherwise, for whom are these unreasonable (including foreign) merchants buying ice-class tankers? And they plan to continue producing them.
I think that foreign ships traveling to the EU will gradually catch up, initially in the summer period, with the connection gradually in the summer-autumn period, etc.
Accordingly, the increase in shipping and the development of infrastructure will unambiguously occur and there is no way to get away from it.

Again.
All the existing and operating infrastructure of the NSR fully meets today's needs.
Completely.
Take it for granted.

What fertilizers are in the north? What are you talking about? There are no potassium deposits.
Nickel and everything that NorNickel produces - everything is safely delivered to the ports during active navigation. The available capacities are enough.
Everything that is needed for the northern delivery also manages to be delivered during the current navigation. There is also enough capacity.

Ice-class tankers are bought only by those who operate the port of Sabetta.
Those. the Yamal LNG consortium ordered these tankers to work on its own project. And they will work only in Sabetta and nowhere else.
Those. speech about some kind of third-party merchants is not in principle.


And it's not stupid to deny.
It is foolish to dream about something that does not exist and does not have economic feasibility.
With the same success, you can try to build a 4-lane highway between the villages of Gadyukino and Zmeyukino.
Build, start the entire infrastructure, create several DRSU with a dozen snow plows, graders, bulldozers, dump trucks, bitumen and other machines.
Build several full-fledged gas station complexes with tire fitting. repair of cars and trucks, cafes, hotels, motels and truck stops.
Only here's the trouble.
There are only 100 kilometers between Gadyukino and Zmeyukino, and each has 500 people.
And the existing two-lane road is quite enough for them.
And the next 40 years - no changes in terms of increasing freight traffic are expected.

[Sfurei]

Again:
1. Available infrastructure not enough... Due to the increase in LNG volumes, the increase in naval traffic and ongoing and planned new developments on the shelves.
2. Fertilizers that are produced in Russia and Belarus and could be transported to China (the largest consumer of mineral fertilizers) from Murmansk. It all depends on the required volumes.
3. If there is enough capacity for the summer delivery, then why a new fleet of icebreakers (exceeding the compensation for those written off).
4. For Yamal LNG, 4-5 ice-class tankers have been built and they are already in operation, and there are plans to increase the number to 15 units. And you say that the transportation capacity will not grow? Or are they building cleanly on the ports so that they rust? By the way, look who are the owners of these tankers (some foreign companies, it is clear that some are offshore, but not all).
5. Rosneft is increasing its fleet, Yamal LNG is increasing its fleet, Rosatomflot is increasing, the Navy is slowly being renewed and increasing shipping, the RF Ministry of Defense is building new and renewing old military deployment points in the north, and the fishing fleet is being renewed. Will you deny it? Accordingly, MTO bases and ports will be updated and expanded in any case.
And you write that: "... It is foolish to dream about something that does not exist and does not have economic feasibility ..." all of the above is not economically feasible? Are you overconfident? Reminiscent of a statement about one smart man surrounded by fools.
If you are at the head of a company with thousands of employees and multi-billion dollar turnover, then tell us specifically what these corporations are doing that is economically inexpedient. If not, then just watch how they develop the north and rejoice for your country.

[matross]

Quote: SovAr238A

If loading and unloading in these ports is simply not needed by the international merchant fleet? For them it will be a normal transoceanic crossing.

They will have piece transitions.

Convinced. Nearly. Billions of investments "in tear" will not pay off. But as a reserve world and permanent internal one must be brought to mind. That is, at least Tiksi should be developed to the level of reception and service of Novatek and of equal size for all types. Plus icebreakers on demand, not if possible, which is being done, however.

[lucul]

If people knew how the world sea trade transport works in reality, they would understand the entire inexpediency of the NSR for the world transport fleet.

Any war in Egypt and fucking your world trade, isn't it? Business does not accept risks? ))) The sea route skirting Africa is much shorter than the NSR, right?
You, besides chutzpah, do you know how to say anything?

[SovAr238A]

Quote: lucul

If people knew how the world sea trade transport works in reality, they would understand the entire inexpediency of the NSR for the world transport fleet.

Any war in Egypt and fucking your world trade, isn't it? Business does not accept risks? ))) The sea route skirting Africa is much shorter than the NSR, right?
You, besides chutzpah, do you know how to say anything?

Do you know how to think with your head?
And do not slide down to insults?
Although I don't know what a chutzpah is, but in your words, it looks like an insult.

And now I tell those who are unable to think with their heads.
The cost of the passage through the Suez Canal for such a ship as a 250-300 meter tanker is about 150 thousand dollars. Approximately the same amount, or 5-10% more, is the 11-day crossing around Africa in terms of fuel costs. 330-380 tons of heavy fuel at a price of $ 500 per ton.
On the second day after the blocking of the container ship - the Maersk company redirected 14 of its huge 20 thousand-capacity units - bypassing Africa.

Depending on these factors, the price of passing through the Suez Canal ranges from $ 8 to $ 12 per ton. The total cost of the passage of a heavy-duty vessel can reach from 160 thousand to 1 million US dollars.
Do you believe in these numbers? Or thought the Suez Canal was free? :)


The risks are actually minimal around Africa.
The cost is higher by only 5-10%, or even the same. as well as for the Suez.
Well the charterer still pays for each day the ship is chartered.
Just longer.

But if the Suez stands firmly, the fleet will stabilize within one and a half to two months.

And it will still be cheaper for them than the NSR, since they use existing ships. And they don't need to build Arctic-class tankers. And the construction cost of the Novatekovskiy gas carrier is $ 330 million, and several years will pass from the date of the order.

And by the way, many are walking around Africa. even without blocking Suez.
But I think this is a pattern break for you ...
You just need to think more and know more ..

Quote:

Between October and the end of the year 2015, more than 100 ships chose the Suez route bypassing Africa, increasing the distance by several thousand miles. Why? Because it turned out to be cheaper than the fees of the Suez Canal. Linear container ships Asia - the US East Coast, and Asia - Europe, win on the long arm up to 235 thousand dollars for a round trip, and during the year the savings on ships of one schedule can amount to more than 17 million dollars.
So much for the bypass of the Suez Canal, here's an alternative to the traditional route. Extending the route is more advantageous than shortening it

And yes, the facts put everything in its place.
Remember how Putin spoke about the development of the NSR?
Based on what?
And here's what:

2013-m:
According to forecasts of the Ministry of Transport of Russia, a significant increase in freight traffic along the NSR is expected in the next decade: by 2016 - up to 29 million tons, by 2020 - up to 63 million tons3. Transportation of only potash fertilizers by 2015 may amount to 15 million tons.
Transit traffic along the NSR may increase by 2015-2016. up to 5 million tons, which will require more than 100 icebreaker escorts per year, primarily for year-round transit along the Northern Europe - Japan route. In the long term, the volume of cargo transportation along the NSR is planned to be increased to 60-80 million tons per year.

What happened in fact:

In 2015, transit traffic along the Northern Sea Route decreased - a total of 39,6 thousand tons of transit cargo were transported, which is 6,9 times lower than the level of 2014.

Real 39.6 thousand tons against the planned 5 million. Can you imagine the professionalism of our managers, the Ministry of Transport? So make a mistake in forecasts, and not for a distant period somewhere in the 30-40s, beloved by the Kremlin dreamers, but only for a period of 2-3 years!

[lucul]

Although I don't know what a chutzpah is, but in your words, it looks like an insult.

No need to pretend to be a hose.

[SovAr238A]

Quote: lucul

Although I don't know what a chutzpah is, but in your words, it looks like an insult.

No need to pretend to be a hose.

I have repeatedly written about that. that Russian, I am 50 years old, live in Samara and have been working in recent years in the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug and Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug.
But. for such a stupid person, everyone who disagrees with him and does not shout urya is always either Jews or Ukrainians ...
I had to read what Chutzpah is - now I know ...
I really don't understand why you wrote this word. regarding my lyrics ..
I don't really understand.
Do you just like to write Hebrew words?
like is it really cool?


A question to you in essence of what I have written, have your brains already fallen into place?
Now they began to understand a little more. what is sea transportation, what are channels, what is infrastructure, etc.

??

It’s just that I’m not writing for you.
"The dead cannot be cured, and the fool cannot be learned."
So, as articles are read by tens of thousands of people, and discussions are read by thousands of people.
And I write to most of them. Even though answering, as it were, to your words.
But I write for them.
What would they see. how stupid your words are.
What would they see. how the realities differ from your delirium ...

so let's continue to think that we are communicating "tete-a-tete" ...
You may think so, but I do not!
And the number of page views is proof of this.

[lucul]

I wrote repeatedly

By their deeds, you will recognize them ...

[clerk]

... According to forecasts of the Ministry of Transport of Russia, in the next decade, a significant increase in freight traffic along the NSR is expected: by 2016 - up to 29 million tons, by 2020 - up to 63 million tons3. Transportation of only potash fertilizers by 2015 may amount to 15 million tons.
Transit traffic along the NSR may increase by 2015-2016. up to 5 million tons, which will require more than 100 icebreaker assistance per year,

.

... What happened in fact:
Transit traffic along the Northern Sea Route decreased in 2015 - a total of 39,6 thousand tons of transit cargo were transported, can you imagine the professionalism of our managers, the Ministry of Transport? So be wrong in your predictions, 0

Here you need to understand that 2013 was followed by the sanctions 2014 and subsequent ones, including the covid 2020, which the Ministry of Transport could not have foreseen. But in general, they assessed the trend correctly: According to the Administration of the Northern Sea Route, as of December 10, 2020, the total volume of traffic in the water area of ​​the Northern Sea Route amounted to 30 million 858 thousand tons, including transit cargo 7 thousand tons.

[SovAr238A]

Quote: clerk

According to the Administration of the Northern Sea Route, as of December 10, 2020, the total volume of traffic in the water area of ​​the Northern Sea Route amounted to 30 million 858 thousand tons, including transit cargo 7 thousand tons.

And it was planned for 2020 and 2021 for 15 million tons of transit annually ...

But.
The SMP is working.
To our country, to our Army, to our navy.
Works great.
How much people need - so much he fulfills.

And I do not understand why heroic efforts are needed here and now in order to develop it ...

He serves our needs.
Actual overseas transit is 30 times less than our needs.
Why develop the NSR?

The planned foreign transit will not grow more than 5-6 times in the next 10 years.
And all the same, there will also be less than our needs by the same 5-6 times.

So I ask why investing trillions, arguing the development of the NSR for foreign transit, if the role of transit is either negligible (3%), or will be at the level of 10-15% ...

He, the NSR in the existing infrastructure, and so it will cope.

[clerk]

So I ask why investing trillions, arguing the development of the NSR for foreign transit, if the role of transit is either negligible (3%), or will be at the level of 10-15% ...

... As for trillions, you probably got excited, and are investing in the future. Suez is not rubber, but transferring a significant part of Chinese exports to Europe is a very tempting piece. It is not for nothing that the soldiers were recently instructed to pull the second track of the BAM at an accelerated pace, because the existing railway is working at the limit of its capacity.

[Xscorpion]

Quote: SovAr238A

Quote: lucul

If people knew how the world sea trade transport works in reality, they would understand the entire inexpediency of the NSR for the world transport fleet.

Any war in Egypt and fucking your world trade, isn't it? Business does not accept risks? ))) The sea route skirting Africa is much shorter than the NSR, right?
You, besides chutzpah, do you know how to say anything?

Do you know how to think with your head?
And do not slide down to insults?
Although I don't know what a chutzpah is, but in your words, it looks like an insult.

And now I tell those who are unable to think with their heads.
The cost of the passage through the Suez Canal for such a ship as a 250-300 meter tanker is about 150 thousand dollars. Approximately the same amount, or 5-10% more, is the 11-day crossing around Africa in terms of fuel costs. 330-380 tons of heavy fuel at a price of $ 500 per ton.
On the second day after the blocking of the container ship - the Maersk company redirected 14 of its huge 20 thousand-capacity units - bypassing Africa.

Depending on these factors, the price of passing through the Suez Canal ranges from $ 8 to $ 12 per ton. The total cost of the passage of a heavy-duty vessel can reach from 160 thousand to 1 million US dollars.
Do you believe in these numbers? Or thought the Suez Canal was free? :)


The risks are actually minimal around Africa.
The cost is higher by only 5-10%, or even the same. as well as for the Suez.
Well the charterer still pays for each day the ship is chartered.
Just longer.

But if the Suez stands firmly, the fleet will stabilize within one and a half to two months.

And it will still be cheaper for them than the NSR, since they use existing ships. And they don't need to build Arctic-class tankers. And the construction cost of the Novatekovskiy gas carrier is $ 330 million, and several years will pass from the date of the order.

And by the way, many are walking around Africa. even without blocking Suez.
But I think this is a pattern break for you ...
You just need to think more and know more ..

Quote:

Between October and the end of the year 2015, more than 100 ships chose the Suez route bypassing Africa, increasing the distance by several thousand miles. Why? Because it turned out to be cheaper than the fees of the Suez Canal. Linear container ships Asia - the US East Coast, and Asia - Europe, win on the long arm up to 235 thousand dollars for a round trip, and during the year the savings on ships of one schedule can amount to more than 17 million dollars.
So much for the bypass of the Suez Canal, here's an alternative to the traditional route. Extending the route is more advantageous than shortening it

And yes, the facts put everything in its place.
Remember how Putin spoke about the development of the NSR?
Based on what?
And here's what:

2013-m:
According to forecasts of the Ministry of Transport of Russia, a significant increase in freight traffic along the NSR is expected in the next decade: by 2016 - up to 29 million tons, by 2020 - up to 63 million tons3. Transportation of only potash fertilizers by 2015 may amount to 15 million tons.
Transit traffic along the NSR may increase by 2015-2016. up to 5 million tons, which will require more than 100 icebreaker escorts per year, primarily for year-round transit along the Northern Europe - Japan route. In the long term, the volume of cargo transportation along the NSR is planned to be increased to 60-80 million tons per year.

What happened in fact:

In 2015, transit traffic along the Northern Sea Route decreased - a total of 39,6 thousand tons of transit cargo were transported, which is 6,9 times lower than the level of 2014.

Real 39.6 thousand tons against the planned 5 million. Can you imagine the professionalism of our managers, the Ministry of Transport? So make a mistake in forecasts, and not for a distant period somewhere in the 30-40s, beloved by the Kremlin dreamers, but only for a period of 2-3 years!

Where did you get 5 million tons of transit by 2015? If the official expected figure is 3 million tons of transit by 2030? By the way, now the transit of goods is on average 600-800 thousand tons per year and is steadily growing from every year, not counting domestic traffic.

[adler87]

The Bolsheviks did not count money very much, and this is a fact. Otherwise, they would still live in the USSR.

[Lech from Android.]

Unfortunately (or fortunately), the Arctic region is not intended for hundreds of thousands and, moreover, millions of people.

I can not agree with the author.

Why then make plans with the exploration of Mars, the Moon if even the Arctic cannot be mastered normally.
I also disagree with the author that millions of people cannot live in the Far North ... they can.
If they wish, they can ... create full-fledged oases of civilization, a person can ... The example of Saudi Arabia and Israel, which created oases of life in the desert without life, is obvious.
You just need to make an effort and achieve results with a full will to do so.
Two hundred years ago, we considered flights to Mars a fantasy, lying on a sofa with a beer belly drinking beer. The Arctic certainly cannot be mastered.

[Civil]

Quote: Lech from Android.

Saudi Arabia and Israel have created oases of life in the desert without life.

Partly I support, heating is cheaper than cooling. The solution lies in new technologies and strategic approaches to modernizing existing settlements.

[SovAr238A]

Quote: Civil

Quote: Lech from Android.

Saudi Arabia and Israel have created oases of life in the desert without life.

Partly I support, heating is cheaper than cooling.

Oh how.
It's only in physics textbooks that it turns out cheaper.

But in real terms, comparing weather values ​​in Saudi Arabia / Israel - the average annual cost of cooling to temperatures required by the human body is about 10 times lower than for heating in the Far North.

For example, the average annual average daily temperature in Riyadh is plus 26,5 degrees.
Accordingly, to lower the temperature to a comfortable temperature for a person of 22-24 degrees, energy is needed to cool the same volume by only 4,5-2,5 degrees.
In the case of Dixon, where the average annual average daily temperature is minus 14 degrees, energy costs are needed to heat the same volume by only 36-38 degrees.
That you will agree. but almost an order of magnitude higher.

[Pessimist22]

The population is leaving the Far East and Siberia, it has decreased by 500 thousand in a year, and they think that now we will rush to the Arctic for a construction site they are far from the people and they only have enough brains to steal from the budget

[Lech from Android.]

The population is leaving hopelessness and prospects, you cannot blame people for this ... the Kremlin's policy of pumping out natural resources without investing in social services. structure is a deliberately failed policy.

[Pessimist22]

How then will the Arctic and the Moon be explored?

[Nastia makarova]

they will go there to earn money and not live there

[Denis Rumyanny]

Stupid question. The Sechins-Wrottenbergs have long since solved this problem. Migrants from Central Asia, Moldova and Belarus. Many times cheaper than dissatisfied peasants from Russia.

[clerk]

.Stupid question. The Sechins-Wrottenbergs have long since solved this problem. Migrants from Central Asia, Moldova and Belarus. Many times cheaper than dissatisfied peasants from Russia.

And Type only proud Ukrainians prefer Polish greenhouses and toilets to the Russian north.

[Denis Rumyanny]

We were happy to build the Crimean Bridge and Yamal. True, now in Poland they pay more. There are many Russians and Belarusians, Ukrainians have to go to the west.

[carstorm 11]

Why did everyone cling to these 500 thousand? This, even in dynamics, is just an exception against the background of covid and all that it brought. And from the Far East people always left. In my house, neighbors over the years of their lives in the center of Khabarovsk changed several times, loading a container and dumping it to the west, for example. We would have left, but it happened in the nineties, plus something else. And there are hundreds of such houses. My parents almost got divorced due to the fact that they just swore almost daily about leaving.

[Far B]

And from the Far East people always left

Here is no need to la-la. In Soviet times, until the very last year of the Union's existence, there was a steady increase in the Far East. Over the past ten Soviet years - a million! This is taking into account the fact that Transbaikalia and Buryatia did not belong to the Far East at that time. And since the collapse of the USSR, there has not been a single (!) Year when demographic growth has been recorded in the Far East. Solid "exception", yeah, yeah.

[carstorm 11]

Yes Yes. I didn't live there. I didn’t see anything myself. You are the truth and now I will listen to you

[Far B]

I have not seen anything myself

What did you actually see? That people are leaving and coming? So what? Give me at least one region of the country (even in our time) with zero migration dynamics. You will not name, because there are none. Moreover, the Far East is a young region for Russia; it began to be actively populated a little over a hundred years ago. Yes, someone left, they came more, gave birth to children here, who were already becoming indigenous to the Far East. And who, if it had not been for the collapse of the Soviet Union, did not even think to leave their region, because under the "totalitarian scoop" people in the Far East had prospects, there was a reason to stay here. Now there is no such thing. You saw those "leaving" then, justifying what is happening today, but you are not paying attention to the dynamics of the demographic process. Because you are so comfortable. Continue in the same spirit, and let your navel shine in the darkness from the pro-imperious grace that has descended on you.

[carstorm 11]

As I understand the subtle hints, you do not understand ... I told you last time that I will not argue with you.

[Far B]

So do not argue who makes you But I didn’t tell you anything like that, so your posts like “people always left the Far East” and “an exception against the background of covid” have commented and will continue to comment. Because you are misleading people with such posts, and this is not good.

[Olgovich]

It :

Returning to the title of the article, let's try to answer the question: does Russia need the Northern Sea Route? Let's even clarify whether it is needed in the modern sense?

Most likely, no.

doesn't really fit this:

And the Northern Sea Route - this is a great highway for quick and inexpensive export of Arctic hydrocarbons and other minerals.

to take out inexpensive hydrocarbons, a new powerful infrastructure was also needed. And the freight traffic has increased tenfold in just 10 years.

Icebreakers are not always needed: from July to September, the NSR was recognized as suitable for the passage of ordinary ships.

In addition, in just 30 years, the area of ​​Arctic ice decreased by 40% and the trend to the opposite is not observed.
therefore it is necessary to build.

SMP will not replace Suuez, but, over time, your niche-will.

[Ryaruav]

Russia undoubtedly needs the NSR for its own needs, but for other countries this is a question or is needed, but for purposes against Russia

[nikvic46]

The North is a serious land. For some reason, many people have the opinion that the main obstacle is frost. But many people, due to their nature, cannot withstand the polar night. It depressing. And they return to their beloved sun. Of course, one can dream of railways and the NSR. But all this requires a scientific approach. Transforming the Arctic Ocean into the Laptev Sea is already a feasible task. But we also need to think about the consequences.

[rotmistr60]

Does Russia Need the Northern Sea Route? Probably not.

Author, have you made a conclusion for the country? I wonder at whose request? And then explain why the US suddenly became very interested in the NSR up to the announcement of its privatization in favor of the West?

[Ros 56]

I have not read any stupider article. Although the liberals are always not so and not that way.

[sergo1914]

Is it analytics? Really?

[Cowbra]

The development of the Arctic is inevitable, easy-to-obtain resources are being depleted every day, and it becomes cost-effective to climb into hard-to-reach ones. The North WILL be mastered - no options. So the Northern Sea Route is needed even without transit - without options. It should be built as far as possible - is there a chance to build it now? We need to build, and now.

[Lynx2000]

Now, to successfully pass world-class container ships along the 3000-mile zone of the Russian coast, 16 major ports must be built! Each port is not only a receiving terminal, but also a mass of dredging and filling works.

The distance between the port of Vladivostok and the port of Anadyr, on the sea line is about 2500 nautical miles. Vessels make the transition to the port of destination without intermediate entry to other ports (if there is no unloading / unloading). The reserves of fuel, water, kolpit, etc. are enough for the transition. Such sea transportation refers to cabotage.
Please justify the need to build as many as 3000 major ports along the 16 miles coastline. What should be in your understanding of such a port?

[parusnik]

I completely agree with the author, unfortunately this is the case, but I work in this area, at meetings, I met with the guys from this region. They say, in principle, the same thing.

[A. Privalov]

Oh my God! The first sober article about the NSR in years!
The author is absolutely right. The real use of this route for transit is still very, very far away.

... And by 2035, in general, jump to 160 million tons, of which 10 million should be in transit.

10 million tons per year in 15 years.
At a time when already today 10 million tons pass through Suez in 10 days.
PS For the sake of fairness, it should be noted that just four months ago, the author was much more optimistic. (Northern Sea Route: ice melts - tensions rise)

[unaha]

For everyone who is eager to explore the Arctic - why did it become? Forward! For labor exploits. Otherwise, for the advocates of living in the Arctic, all this must be done by someone else.
Mastering is going on anyway, only the scheme is different, more sane. For some reason, no one thinks about the cost of production, which is already high, with the load of the entire social infrastructure.

[Lynx2000]

Whoever needs it, they work. Whether the NSR is loaded with foreign transit or not, they don't care.
Earlier, at the mouths of the river. Lena and R. There were fishing collective farms in Yana. In the North-East of the Far Eastern region, will the NSR be "violet" or not.
The point is different, the development of coastal infrastructure for itself (RF), incl. seaports are necessary for the regions themselves, as well as small aircraft.

[unaha]

So let them work for themselves. Companies operating in the Arctic know much better who, how much and under what conditions they need.

[Galleon]

In general, there are a lot of interesting things about the calculations of the benefits of using the Russian northern route relative to the route through the Suez Canal. At a speed of 15 knots, a conventional container ship from London to Yokohama along the Northern Sea Route will reach in 18 days. That's two weeks faster than a similar speed across Suez. But such a speed cannot be achieved on the Russian route - a maximum of 9 knots. At this rate, the container ship will sail through the northern seas for exactly the same 32 days as through the Suez Canal.

It's good that a man was found and said and showed this obvious alignment.
But there are ships whose speed is much higher than 15 knots - car carriers, for example. For them, the above calculations are even more obvious.
There is one more small factor: comfort of navigation, climatic and weather conditions. On one path you will have to endure, on the other - to work and live in peace. There is also a factor of seasonality of navigation on the NSR. What - 9 months walking along the southern route and 3 months along the northern one? What kind of hell?
In general, the topic of the NSR and the development of the Arctic is perhaps the last chance for the development of our civil aviation.

[iouris]

Does Russia need the Northern Sea Route?

[Basarev]

The Northern Sea Route is needed, but only as part of a larger idea, I call it the global Russian transport network. The super task is worth it - so that you can get to any point in Russia in less than a day. But for this, in addition to the Northern Sea Route, it is necessary to build and build roads, especially automobile roads. I would very much like a resident of Kamchatka to be able to get to the west of Crimea without leaving the car.

[Genry]

Quote: Basarev

The Northern Sea Route is needed, but only as part of a larger idea

Your comment is needed, but only as part of mass spam ...

SevMorPut is an international highway - this is how it should be developed at the state level.
Small regional transportation on it will appear on their own.

[2 Level Advisor]

You know, everything is simple, for the international highway: price-speed-convenience-logistics-profit, and only when all this surpasses the same Suez-will the capitalists trample along the NSR, no matter how in themselves .. True, if, in addition to the slogans "It is necessary" and " Because "someone will tell you how to solve the problem: on the way from Holland to Japan (via Suez), there are 16 large ports in different countries and a sea of ​​small ones, and each one is loaded with some kind of cargo, ships call in, are repaired / refueled ... And how, at the same time, will it be more profitable to deliver goods along the NSR? - after all, these 16+ ports and infrastructure, there are stupidly GEOGRAPHICALLY not there, when we solve this problem, then the NSR will be trampled on as a cool international one ..
even if we’ve spent trillions and build everything and the ice melts, foreigners will go to the north of China / Japan at most, the rest will be closer through the south .. geography, however, has nowhere to go along the NSR route ..

[Scharnhorst]

No really! I'd rather come to you by plane!

[xorek]

And the Northern Sea Route is an excellent highway for the quick and inexpensive export of Arctic hydrocarbons and other minerals. No more.

This is all liberda for us since the 90s drives into the brain .. And then suddenly such a fight began for the Arctic and everyone climbs into this region, even China .. Why is this so?
And Russia is strenuously deploying military bases there and building up the world's largest icebreaker fleet ... For what?
And they are increasing their presence on the Bereng Strait, also just like that?
Low temperatures and a short route, this is the essence of the Northern Sea Route ..
Well, safety !!!

[Bez 310]

In principle, everything is written correctly.
There will be a lot of criticism in the comments, but nothing constructive,
except for "Severnash!" will not be offered. I agree with the author, and
I saw the real North not on TV, but lived in the districts
Far North and places equated to them, 36 years.

[kig]

Dear author, it is clear from your verses that you know practically nothing about shipping.

Container ships must enter ports to replenish supplies at least every 3-4 thousand kilometers.

- stupidity number of times. A full supply of fuel is enough for 15-20 thousand miles, food is enough for at least a month, fresh water is made from sea water. If a container ship stops, as you say, "every 3-4 thousand kilometers", then not to replenish stocks, but in order to load / unload the associated cargo. Go to the Evergreen website and see the route, for example NE1 from China to Europe. From Shanghai to Wilhelmshaven, container ships call at 9 more ports.

Now, to successfully pass world-class container ships along the 3000-mile zone of the Russian coast, 16 major ports must be built!

- stupidity number two. WHAT FOR???? The same Venta Maersk left Vostochny - its last port before the NSR - and the next port of call was Rotterdam.

And the Northern Sea Route is an excellent highway for the quick and inexpensive export of Arctic hydrocarbons and other minerals.

- here I agree.

[Falcon5555]

Could Ever Given sail along the NSR? Now, at this time of year - of course not. There is no ice class, there is a bulb, and for sure the width is too wide for icebreakers. And if he had an icebreaker nose and wide icebreakers - could he? After all, he still needs to overcome those seas where winter storms and icing are possible: the Barents, Norwegian, the seas around Chukotka and Kamchatka. What will the crew of such a giant do when ice builds up on containers? Will the construction of the decks withstand? Will the ship capsize?
Were you able to remove this ship from aground, for example, in the Kara Sea? Or would it stand there until next winter and be crushed by ice with all the fuel flowing out and an environmental disaster?
Finally, a rhetorical question with an obvious answer to many: is it interesting for free entrepreneurs to enter the waters that Russia considers its own?

[Doccor18]

Russia runs the risk of creating a cumbersome structure, investing gigantic funds and facing the lack of demand for the Northern Sea Route. Unfortunately (or fortunately), the Arctic region is not intended for hundreds of thousands, let alone millions of people. Too expensive...

Oh how! The voice of effective, that is, effective managers sounded ... "Expensive, inexpensive ..." It is expensive to develop a country, but it is profitable to pump oil over the hill stupidly. "Applause to the studio ..."
And how much is empty vegetation, greed, laziness, betrayal? Who knows its price?
The NSR will develop, and this is inevitable. And with your self-sufficiency, you can, for example, turn to the state of Texas, there they will tell you a lot about the self-sufficiency of the dairy industry ...

[mojohed2012]

As for whether Russia needs the Northern Sea Route as a whole, it does. But even more necessary is the saturation of the northern direction with air defense-missile defense systems, as well as with means of identifying and destroying enemy submarines while ensuring the protection of the deployment area of ​​Russian submarines.

[NF68]

Russia in the future can use the NSR and just for itself. Most likely, this alone already justifies the possible costs.

[Peaceful SEO]

An extremely poor article. The author forgot to add that Russia does not need to develop anything at all, only to pump oil to the west for free

[fsps]

Container ships the size of the Suez Canal will not be able to sail along the NSR, the depths there are not the same, and there is no need to try to bite off a piece larger than the mouth. And, say, refrigerated trucks could save not only time - cooler there than in the desert. Also oil / gas, metals and whatnot.

[ccsr]

Author:
Evgeny Fedorov

This is largely due to the hopes for the development of another regional megaproject - the Northern Sea Route. The state's plans for it are simply grandiose. The task was set to compete with the Suez Canal and its own Trans-Siberian Railway.

I think that the author slightly distorts the situation, because the Northern Sea Route, by definition, cannot create competition for the Suez Canal, if only because it would never occur to anyone to send oil and gas from the Persian Gulf through the NSR. As for the Trans-Siberian Railway, this is also an unfortunate example - the throughput capacity of these highways is too different, and the speed of delivery of goods is different. Not everyone is willing to pay extra money for speed.

In 2018, a container ship Venta Maers passed through the Vladivostok - Busan - St. Petersburg route as an experiment. Since then, no one has dared to repeat such a journey.

It is strange that the author "forgot" that the first gas carriers went to China quite recently, and in winter:

For the first time in history, tankers with Russian LNG sailed along the Northern Sea Route in January and leave for the Bering Sea. Ships are carrying liquefied gas to China. Spot prices due to the continuing frost in Asia have broken a historical record in the region and exceed $ 1 per thousand cubic meters.

More details: https://eadaily.com/ru/news/2021/01/18/tankery-s-rossiyskim-spg-probilis-cherez-sevmorput-v-merznushchuyu-aziyu
So, not everything is so sad - we can drive gas to Southeast Asia all year round.

In general, there are a lot of interesting things about the calculations of the benefits of using the Russian northern route relative to the route through the Suez Canal. At a speed of 15 knots, a conventional container ship from London to Yokohama along the Northern Sea Route will reach in 18 days. That's two weeks faster than a similar speed across Suez. But such a speed cannot be achieved on the Russian route - a maximum of 9 knots. At this rate, the container ship will sail through the northern seas for exactly the same 32 days as through the Suez Canal. But that's not all.

Here the car is somewhat disingenuous, because, firstly, it does not indicate that a speed of 15 knots requires much more fuel consumption than a speed of 9 knots, and all shipowners take this into account, and the resource is saved.
Secondly, the speed on the NSR depends on the season, and no one says so far that this route must be used all year round, which means that the speed can be higher in the summer months.

And at this rate, the container ship will sail through the northern seas for exactly the same 32 days as through the Suez Canal. But that's not all.
Container ships must enter ports to replenish supplies at least every 3-4 thousand kilometers.

I don’t know where the author got this data, especially given the fact that in the future they will use liquefied gas as fuel for turbines, but I note that our fishermen hang out in the oceans for several months without going to ports to fish, and for some reason they stocks are enough.
Container ships enter ports to unload part of the cargo and load new ones along the route, because the path passes through many logistics hubs in the world. It does not threaten us not in the North, tk. that container ships will paddle past our ports, which will shorten the time.

Hack and predictor Aviator
Returning to the title of the article, let's try to answer the question: does Russia need the Northern Sea Route? Let's even clarify whether it is needed in the modern sense?
Probably not.

Probably the author did not take into account that our gas carriers already carry gas from the Arctic, and even American companies bought it. So the outlook looks much more optimistic than the author draws it in his article.

[kig]

Quote: ccsr

Probably the author did not take into account that we already have gas carriers carrying gas from the Arctic

And you did not take into account that these gas carriers were built specifically for operation in the Arctic, and for operation all year round, and in many cases they do without an icebreaker. They have the Arc7 class of the RF Register: Independent navigation in close-knit one-year arctic ice with a thickness of up to 1,4 m in winter-spring navigation and up to 1,7 m in summer-autumn with episodic overcoming of ice bridges by raids. Navigation in the channel behind the icebreaker in the first-year Arctic ice up to 2,0 m thick in winter-spring and up to 3,2 m in summer-autumn navigation. Ice class is not only a reinforced hull. These are special requirements for the power plant, for ship systems (for example, ballast and fuel - so as not to freeze), for living quarters (yes, yes!), For environmental protection and much more. Details can be found in the rules of the Register, there is a whole volume specially for this. All these requirements greatly increase the cost of the vessel. Now try to force a foreign ship owner to buy one ship for one and a half or even double the price, and as a result he will receive an unobvious ability to sail all year round in the northern seas. Not obvious, because the forces of nature are unpredictable.

Well, to the question of the timing: Venta Maersk, which was mentioned here, began its famous flight Vladivostok-Petersburg on August 22, and finished on September 28. Moreover, most of the way was covered independently, she needed icebreaker assistance only in the East Siberian Sea.

[ccsr]

Quote: kig

All these requirements greatly increase the cost of the vessel. Now try to force a foreign ship owner to buy one ship at one and a half, or even double the price,

What makes you think that our gas producers themselves will not buy these ships for themselves in order to put profit from transportation in their own pockets?

Quote: kig

Moreover, most of the way was covered independently, she needed icebreaker assistance only in the East Siberian Sea.

Well, the route works great, we just have to rejoice.

[kig]

Quote: ccsr

What makes you think that our gas producers themselves will not buy these ships for themselves

I did not take it from anything, of course they will buy it. I'll tell you even more - they are already being built.

Quote: ccsr

Well, the route works great

and no one argues, of course it acts. They argue about something else - about the possibility of the NSR to compete with the Suez Canal. As for your quote, in this example I wanted to say that it is not as fast as everyone thinks.

[ccsr]

Quote: kig

They argue about something else - about the possibility of the NSR to compete with the Suez Canal.

Only narrow-minded people can argue about this, because it is impossible in the current climate.
.

Quote: kig

I wanted to say that this is not as fast as everyone thinks.

This is natural - such projects require a lot of research and investment, and therefore it will not work out quickly within a few years, it will take decades, and not a single one.

[kig]

Quote: ccsr

What makes you think that our gas producers themselves will not buy these ships for themselves

I did not take it from anything, of course they will buy it. I'll tell you even more - they have already been built, only 15 huge gas carriers. And they continue to build, already tankers. But these are vessels specifically for work in the Arctic and for special cargo, and the point is that an endless flow of transit from Asia to Europe and back is about to go through the NSR.

Quote: ccsr

Well, the route works great

- and no one argues, of course it acts, and successfully. The dispute is about something else - about the possibility of the NSR to compete with the Suez Canal. As for your link, you missed the main point: it's not as fast as it seems.

[GTYCBJYTH2021]

You are not a sea fisherman, you can immediately see it ..... Two or three times a month, a transport arrives at the place of fishing, picks up the products, while giving fuel ... Every three months, the vessel must call at the port, according to International standards, for recreation crew .....

[ccsr]

Quote: GTYCBJYTH2021

You are not a sea fisherman, you can immediately see it ..... Two or three times a month, a transport arrives at the place of fishing, picks up the products, while giving fuel ..

Not a fisherman, of course, I have a different specialty. But my brother was forty years old as a senior electromechanic who departed in the oceans and seas all over the world, and even in Soviet times he began to walk on fishermen in the seventies. So I'm in the subject of what they have.

Quote: GTYCBJYTH2021

Every three months, the ship must call at the port, in accordance with the International Standards for the rest of the crew.

Here I am about the fact that for one month any container ship can pass along the NSR without entering our ports. You just didn’t understand that it was about the fact that supposedly container ships must definitely enter our ports, and there is no infrastructure there. So keep a close eye on what is being discussed.

[GTYCBJYTH2021]

Quote: ccsr

Quote: GTYCBJYTH2021

You are not a sea fisherman, you can immediately see it ..... Two or three times a month, a transport arrives at the place of fishing, picks up the products, while giving fuel ..

Not a fisherman, of course, I have a different specialty. But my brother was forty years old as a senior electromechanic who departed in the oceans and seas all over the world, and even in Soviet times he began to walk on fishermen in the seventies. So I'm in the subject of what they have.

Quote: GTYCBJYTH2021

Every three months, the ship must call at the port, in accordance with the International Standards for the rest of the crew.

Here I am about the fact that for one month any container ship can pass along the NSR without entering our ports. You just didn’t understand that it was about the fact that supposedly container ships must definitely enter our ports, and there is no infrastructure there. So keep a close eye on what is being discussed.

So ask your brother, an electromechanic, where and how to fix a major breakdown of the machine, replace the gear-gear, if not in the port ... which are not all over the NSR .... You are not quite in the subject

[ccsr]

Quote: GTYCBJYTH2021

So ask your brother, an electromechanic, where and how to fix a major breakdown of the car,

Once again, I inform you that they often spent several months fishing in the Chile region and did not enter any port. And major breakdowns of the re-brigade were repaired in Mozambique or in Vietnam during the Soviet era, who were there on annual business trips.

Quote: GTYCBJYTH2021

replace the gear reducer, if not in the port ... ... which are absent throughout the NSR.

Nobody canceled towing by icebreakers, and now they also know how to deliver the necessary part by aviation. You should not create a problem where it can be solved right now. What makes you think that major breakdowns are obligatory for all modern ships?

[bandabas]

Let's all live together in Moscow. Work as a watch, why waste time on trifles for the North - all over the country. The article is a solid minus.

[MrFox]

Opponents of the Northern Sea Route give out arguments and figures. The supporters are silent about the arguments; the approach is simple: catch up and overtake!

As I understand it, no one wants to go to the North. And rightly so: there are no fools for new villas in Italy to sit without vitamins

[Newone]

Another nagging and jerking:
1.

But such a speed cannot be achieved on the Russian route - a maximum of 9 knots

In the winter time. In the summer, it is quite possible. Thus, in summer, the Northern Route is more profitable than Suez, and in winter at the same level.
2.

Container ships must enter ports to replenish supplies at least every 3-4 thousand kilometers.

.
It is also possible to replenish supplies of provisions and fuel outside large ports from supply vessels and / or relatively small supply berths. Port facilities for unloading / loading the actual container ships are not required.
3.

That is, in the future there is no real production and mining base that would allow increasing the cargo turnover on the Northern Sea Route to 80 and, moreover, 160 million tons.

Those. Sabeta gas, Vorkuta coal and Norilsk Nickel copper / nickel supplied to Asian and not European markets is this not a production base?

[icemaster29]

1. Linear container ships operate from base to base port. Containers are delivered to these ports by feeder container ships with a capacity of 700, 1100, 1500 TEU. They collect containers from 3-5 ports. Where does the transshipment of 5 or more ships come from? I have worked on liners from Southeast Asia to the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf; Shanghai - USA - Canada. On feeder lines from Rotterdam to the UK East Coast and from Hamburg to St. Petersburg.
2. The sea speed of container ships is not 15, but 21-24 knots (on heavy fuel IFO380), but 15 knots - maneuverable mode (mixture of heavy fuel with MDO (diesel)). Circular flight from the Pacific to the Indian Ocean for 30 days. Fuel consumption: marine mode - 72 t / day, economy travel - 54 t / day. One bunkering per voyage of 1700-2000 tons of heavy fuel, excluding light fuel. So from port to port through the NSR transit without bunkering. And Mayersk launched a container ship with a fixed-pitch propeller, and the entire NSR went in a maneuverable mode. Large container ships are needed with azipods (3 or 4 per ship). The SEU works as a diesel generator (on heavy fuel with constant revolutions), and the azipods have electric motors. It is necessary to build ice7-class vessels, without the bulb and transom stern. The Polar Code has been in force since 2017 and ships must comply with it. Infrastructure is needed only for import and export, and this is our big cabotage. With the 7th ice class, navigation is year-round. I speak as a captain who has worked for 27 years in Antarctica and the Arctic on expedition ships, 3 years for passengers in Antarctica and 2 winter navigation in a refrigerator and a container ship. Containers never wait for transportation for months and for a round trip along the NSR the cargo will be ready and only one reloading from feeder to linear container ship. There is never a full load (all containers with cargo), some of the containers are returned empty.

[Xscorpion]

... First of all, these are gigantic expanses that occupy 18% of the territory of Russia, where no more than 2% of the country's population live. In absolute terms, this is about 2,4 million people.

Almost 2,5 million people. This is a lot. In the US Alaska occupies a third of the country's land area, and is home to less than 1 percent of the population, less than a million. But they are trying to develop. In Canada, in general, 99 percent of the population lives in less than 10 percent of the country, but are also trying to develop. So this is not an indicator in order to take everyone out and leave only shift workers. People there are not embarrassed by the natural conditions, namely the lack of normal life and employment. If the development of all this goes, there will be a normal civilization and work, then the people will pull up, there will be plenty of people willing.

[Lara Croft]

In the Russian Arctic, we repeat - about 2,4 million people. Created in Soviet times infrastructure is now a serious burden on the Russian budget. Yakutia, Chukotka and Arkhangelsk region have been subsidized regions of the country for many years.
in September 2020, an updated strategy providing for the development of the Russian Arctic region as a single macro-region... This means that the Russian leadership is partially returning to the Soviet model of the widespread settlement of the Arctic.
Chukotka will be connected to a single Internet network only by 2024when an underwater optical fiber is pulled to the region.

I disagree with the author. The SVM and all the accompanying infrastructure is needed primarily for the development of the economy and communication between the Russian Federation and its constituent entities of Russia located in the Arctic and in the Arctic region.
The Russian Federation is doomed to continue to strengthen and create again economic and informational ties between the subjects of the Russian Federation, incl. in the Russian Arctic .... this is the case when the costs are paid off by the monolith of the country and the availability of the Arctic regions of the Russian Federation in logistics, developed infrastructure and the lack of isolation of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation from each other ...

The economic mechanism of the "transport theorem" is much more complicated. Consider a polycentric state organism. For any of its regions, the benefits from the existence of a single state are determined by the presence of a common commodity market, the protection of communications, and external security. The costs include government taxes as well as lack of sovereignty.
Let the region now begin to develop faster than the transport network connecting it to the imperial center. The exchange of manufactured products with other areas of the state is becoming more and more difficult. Autarchy is on the rise in the region.
At the next stage, the costs of the empire begin to exceed its economic benefits. Manufacturers are losing interest in the general imperial market and the protection of chronic sclerosis-stricken transport routes. The level of security of the region is falling. A developed province is becoming attractive to its neighbors, and imperial communications are getting worse at transporting troops.
The regional establishment is gradually losing its general imperial mentality. The empire becomes metastable and sooner or later disintegrates - moreover, not along the lines of the greatest transport resistance, but along arbitrary curves that are correlated with national, linguistic, clan, tribal boundaries. The collapse of an empire always provokes "relaxation wars"

http://www.naslednick.ru/archive/rubric/rubric_439.html

[ROBIN-SON]

It will be needed if the expected warming melts the ice in the foreseeable future. And in today's situation, it's better without him. True, there is a minus here. If the ice melts, the northern part of the Russian Federation will be open to the fleets of "partners"

[nerd.su]

It is in vain that the author ranked the Arkhangelsk region among the subsidized Arctic regions. The region is subsidized, but the "capital of the Arctic" Arkhangelsk is purely historical. As the main "base" of the Russian people exploring the Arctic. Arkhangelsk and most of the Arkhangelsk region, just subsidized, geographically do not belong to the Arctic. But the NAO is an Arctic region, a donor region. So such a small blooper, but there are quite a few such bloopers in the article.

[Hikaro]

The author of the article is absolutely right !!! I am writing as a sailor, I passed convoys with an icebreaker in the ice and I perfectly understand what it is !! The captain must have experience of working in ice and navigating with an icebreaker, because there are nuances, you must not in any case drop the course, sometimes you go almost at minimum distances to the stern of the icebreaker or the ship in front! Plus, captains usually have to pay extra for such transfers. The mechanics have a full watch, plus the state Duma is transferred to cooling in the ice there their own procedures! Low outboard temperatures, access to the deck as well as work on it are strictly limited! The ship, after passing through the ice, even if the ice class severely peels off the hull, respectively, after another year, a complete painting of the hull is needed! And there are a lot of such nuances !! Most of the crews consist of Filipinos, for them this extreme is very unacceptable, there will be problems with the recruitment of crews or the salary must be increased, which also hits the finances of the shipowners! Everybody counts money! Therefore, I do not think that in the future the NSR will be very attractive for large world shipowners and companies! For Russia as internal sea transportation and for the Navy it is still normally used! Do not over-embellish reality.

[Igor Kobernik]

Article - stupid ... If censored. "Columbus of Russia, disdaining gloomy rock,
Between the ice a new path will open to the East, And our country will reach America. "M. Lomonosov. The author, I hope, will not argue with the Russian genius? , in the 80s, like, “stagnant.” Everything was ruined under the liberals ... And now we are restoring, only it is much more expensive. The Northern Sea Route is not only the economy.

[agond]

To make the NSR, in addition to icebreakers, you need to build transport ships, the same container ships.

[Andr Kravzov]

it is only "stupid" Canadians who attract massive migration to the Arctic regions from all over the world. fools think that the regions of the country should be populated. and the author of the article does not need the Arctic. living on the principle of a small populated center and huge empty colonies around you can lose these colonies. first of all, it is necessary to invest in population growth and social and infrastructure projects. the state is not a private office. it runs at a loss because it is an investment in huge future growth. these 2.4 million when it will become 5-10. cities will grow and develop houses and places for human activity are being built.