Who wants to fight?
Remember, as a child, we heard a phrase from our grandmothers that we simply could not understand then? "If only there was no war." Moreover, the grandmother said this in the context that she agrees to any hardships, if only the USSR would prevent the war. We, who have long lost our grandmothers, have somehow strangely perverted this phrase. We agree to concede in something, just not to fight ...
I was simply forced to write this material. Forced by readers, acquaintances and almost strangers who have been asking the same question for several days - will there be a war? And won't this war develop into a world war, nuclear war, into destruction. Moreover, and this is the most important thing, people talk about completely opposite desires.
Someone foaming at the mouth proves that everyone has long been tired of Ukraine and it is time to decide something. It's time to almost inflict a nuclear strike on Kiev and take the Donbass for yourself. The motivation for these hawks is understandable. The guys have seen enough movies and have forgotten that soldiers, like civilians, are people. Moreover, on both sides.
Others are the other way around. They propose to bring in peacekeeping forces and cover our republic's soldiers with the bodies. And let this Ukraine "eat" itself. Close the border and forget about this country altogether. The Ukrainians will kill each other themselves. Of course they will interrupt. They will only kill first those who still believe in Russia, those who did not support the Bandera and other “separatists”. History the same as in the first case. We forget that we are all living people.
But what struck me the most was the willingness to fight. And not for himself, “we have a strong army for this,” but for someone else. I hear the slogan "to fight to the last Ukrainian" quite often ... This means that enemy propaganda, enemy ideas and desires enter our heads.
So where do we start
Have you noticed how in one short phrase I turned the situation upside down? Are they not provoking us, but we are the aggressors? You see how simple it is. History is full of examples of such provocations. Probably everyone remembers where the Germans started in 1939, the Americans in many countries, in Vietnam, for example. The question arises about historical memory, our historical memory.
I propose to think about who today has the desire and ability to fight. Let's just think a little about whether a local war is possible. I don't even want to talk about the world one. Simply because all players have something to lose. From bank accounts to your own life.
USA. The Americans will not get involved in war for one simple reason. The Americans have enough of their own internal problems. And the independent conduct of the war is not in the traditions of the United States. The wars that the Americans fought in the 20th century can only be called successful. The states are more interested in wars in which US citizens are not really killed, and corporations from these wars have their own interest.
Therefore, the Americans will push their "allies" to provocations against Russia, to a military conflict, or better to a small, local war, for which the allies will start buying American weapon, to receive American aid, in the future they will require loans for the reconstruction of the country.
NATO. It's a paradox, but the past few days have shown a completely unexpected reluctance of many European countries to participate in clashes with their eastern neighbor. No matter how hard American generals and politicians tried to attract European countries to participate in provocations, the Alliance Secretary General recalled that any decision is made by consensus. And there is no such consensus in NATO.
Despite the apparent power of the alliance, the Europeans are well aware of their vulnerability to modern weapons, especially Russian ones. They understand that all talk about missile defense, air defense and other "defenses" is in many ways just fiction. The war with Russia will no longer be World War II. It will simply destroy the statehood of European countries, and it will destroy the hands of the EU citizens themselves.
Russia. Do we need a war? We, no matter how the leftists, the rightists and other opponents of the statehood of Russia criticize us, are going through the crisis quite successfully. Compared to other countries, naturally. This also applies to the coronavirus, and the state of the economy, and the unity of the people. We are criticized for slowing down some projects, not for missing them. Even the "all-conspirators" and "must-haves" are forced to acknowledge the achievements of Russia and the strengthening of its role in world politics.
Today we are building new relations with the East and West. We are returning to where we fled from after the collapse of the USSR. We are exploring new markets. And if we highlight a priority in European politics, today SP-2 is important for us. We must complete it, especially since the Americans “played on our side” and did what Gazprom could not even dream of with their sanctions. The sea part of SP-2 is completely ours. 100%.
Ukraine. I completely understand Zelensky's panic. Europeans openly ignore him. Even the IMF. The demands of the EU, IMF and NATO are tightening almost every day. And without loans, the country will simply die. Biden does not call, does not give control. There is no one to rely on within the country. Hence the radicalization of the decisions of the Rada, the radicalization of presidential decrees, increased militancy and threats to Donbass. Even the obvious measures to prepare for the offensive are from here.
I already wrote that Zelensky will not go for a serious aggravation. The ukrovoyaks are well aware that Russia will help the Donetsk people. This will not be the introduction of troops. What for? It is enough to simply destroy the groupings prepared for the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Missile defense and air defense of Ukraine is simply not able to withstand the missile and air strikes of the Russian Federation. And the presence of heavy artillery on the borders clearly warns Ukrainian generals about what losses even the most prepared offensive threatens.
Hence, "and we have something for what" in the press and speeches of Ukrainian politicians. Hence the "concern" of the Americans and Europeans about the movements of Russian units across Russian territory.
We have simply forgotten the very recent history of Donbass. Remember the time when Trump was elected? After all, then the situation was one to one as today. Then Poroshenko, like Zelensky, was waiting for instructions from the American president. And in the same way, Trump pouted his lips, remembering how dill politicians poured mud on him before the election. And then there was an exacerbation of hostilities in the Donbass. And Trump called!
Didn't it happen yesterday? Read the Ukrainian press today. There is no publication that does not have an article about the telephone conversation between Biden and Zelensky. And with what pride they write that they will talk a couple more times this week. I would not be surprised if the activity of the Armed Forces of Ukraine sharply decreases today.
Donbass. Everyone knows that Donetsk residents are tired of the shelling and began to respond to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. And about the desire to free the remaining part of Ukraine's Donbass, too. Only now the LPR does not have the strength for a successful offensive. During the war years, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have created a fairly serious defensive system, which the corps will not pass on their own. So the offensive for the republics will practically mean death. And not only soldiers and officers, but also the republics themselves.
Well Poland, taking into account the ramming of a trawler of a Russian vessel during the construction of the JV It is clear that the Poles really want to become the "beloved wife" of the United States. Someone can now confidently answer the question - who do the Poles, Russians or Germans hate more? Both we and the Germans are enemies for Polish politicians. Both we and the Germans are preventing Poland from becoming the head of at least Eastern Europe.
So the actions of the Poles in the Baltic are quite predictable. A kind of mongrel, whom we often meet in the courtyards of grandmothers. Jumps out, tugs at the trouser leg, and then runs away under the protection of the old woman with a loud bark. Many people know how to deal with such mongrels. One wave of the hand, or better yet, a kick, and that's it. The dog runs away from everyone, including the owner.
Russia must defeat itself
Let me remind you of where I started this article. About enemy propaganda that has already taken root in our heads. Here is a quote from Zelensky:
Let me also remind you of Khomchak's interview to the Boatswain program:
And here is the press secretary of the US military department John Kirby:
“In addition, we are aware of the reports of the Ukrainian military about the movements of Russian troops on the borders of Ukraine. We are discussing our concerns about rising tensions and ceasefire violations with our NATO allies. "
Now let's look at our home-grown liberals from Dozhd:
Don't you have a déjà vu experience? How many times have we already heard about how we poison people, how we attack hospitals in Syria, how we use chemical weapons? Don't you think that this is just a preparation of the population for the fact that there will soon be exacerbations, provocations, and possibly a war? And do you know why this is necessary?
Yes, simply in order to create in Russia at least some group of opponents of the war. Not a political one, not even an opposition one, but one in which people would be sure that they are for Russia, for the people. And at the same time they would fulfill the tasks set by the opposing side.
It is no longer possible to rely on those "opponents of the regime" who are now lured. The opposition, which has recently got lost, no longer arouses even sympathy among the population. And nobody removed the task of destabilizing the situation inside Russia ...
So, let's summarize what is visible today. At first, no one wants to fight and cannot. Today only provocations are possible. Ukraine does not need a war, but it needs a military atmosphere. Ukraine needs military bases or at least officially deployed NATO units on its territory.
Secondly, we should expect the liberals to become more active inside Russia - with the task of destabilizing the situation. Society must understand that a lot of stupid things can be done with the best of intentions.
Thirdly, Russia should continue to fulfill the assigned tasks of deploying its units and formations. The border service must be prepared for a possible border incident.
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