Military Review

Polish press: Time is playing against Nord Stream 2

31

Jedrzej Bielecki, author of Rzeczpospolita, draws attention to the upcoming elections to the German Bundestag. Already in September 2021, it will be decided who will determine the policy of Germany, a key player in the European Union, in the coming years. According to the Polish analyst, the elections may lead to power in Germany, a government hostile to the plans to launch the Nord Stream-2 gas pipeline.


It is still not very clear what final course regarding the gas pipeline will be taken by the newly elected US President Joe Biden. His predecessor, Donald Trump, imposed specific sanctions against companies involved in the pipeline's construction. Not everything is clear with Biden yet, but his anti-Russian sentiment is known, and it cannot be ruled out that actions against SP-2 will be no less harsh than under Trump.

Berlin will be forced to adjust its policy


Meanwhile, back on January 20, 2021, immediately after Biden's inauguration, the German government made a proposal to the Americans to negotiate the launch of investments. Berlin proposed a moratorium on gas supplies after completion of construction until Russia releases Alexei Navalny, and until a peace agreement is signed in Donbas. There was also a proposal from the Atlantic Council - if Russia stops the transit of gas through Ukraine, then the flow of gas through the SP-2 after its launch will also be stopped.

Until recently, Angela Merkel remained the main conductor of SP-2 in Europe. However, its political future is already a foregone conclusion, in the fall of 2021 a new government will be formed in Germany and, most likely, the CDU / CSU will no longer have a dominant position in it. The crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic has led to a significant weakening of the position of this German party.

As Beletsky writes, it is now clear that the new government will not be able to form without the participation of the Greens, who are categorically opposed to the construction of Nord Stream 2, and also without the liberal FDP, which is also critical of the construction of the gas pipeline. Thus, in the German Bundestag and, accordingly, in the government there will be an influential faction of opponents of the gas pipeline and representatives of the CDU / CSU, even if they retain a formal majority, will have to adjust their policy.

What still awaits SP-2


According to Beletsky, relying on the opinion of some sources in Berlin, the probability of the implementation of the Nord Stream-2 project is currently just over 50%. The main reason for the possible suspension of construction is the uncompromising position of the Congress. Both the dominant US parties, Republican and Democratic, share a negative attitude towards the construction of the pipeline. At the same time, Washington does not want to quarrel with Berlin, especially in the context of the need to resist the growing influence of China.

Poland, as noted by Beletsky, also supports the position against the construction of the gas pipeline. Pavel Jablonski, Poland's deputy foreign minister, for example, expressed the hope that the United States will not only verbally condemn the construction of the gas pipeline, but will also take real measures to stop it.

However, the intransigence of the State Department is fraught with serious losses for Germany. So, in May 2021, the US Department of State is going to publish a list of companies that are taking part in the completion of the gas pipeline. It is going to include not only the builders themselves, but also insurers and companies responsible for project certification. If the $ 11 billion investment is halted, Germany will need to compensate for this colossal damage.

It is not only in Poland that time is playing against Nord Stream 2. Vadim Glamazdin, an advisor to the head of Naftogaz, thinks the same. He connects the termination of work on the completion of the SP-2 with the implementation in full of the entire package of sanctions from the United States. In addition, Glamazdin emphasizes that the certification company withdrew from the project, depriving the gas pipeline of the possibility of legal connection. Also, the Ukrainian expert noted the absence in Russia of insurance companies of such a level that could take over the insurance coverage of the gas pipeline.

However, Russia has many other opportunities to put pressure on Europe, and this is recognized even in Ukraine. Everything will depend, as always, on a combination of factors - both on the determination of the American leadership to obstruct Nord Stream 2 and on the position of the Kremlin.
Author:
Photos used:
Twitter / Nord Stream 2 Corp.
31 comment
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  1. xorek
    xorek 30 March 2021 11: 30
    +10
    It is not in vain that the Poles are so fussing about Nord Stream 2 .. After all, Ukraine is without a pipe, that's EVERYTHING! They will run to them, and even with weapons and other criminals .. They are afraid of this situation and the United States especially!
    1. Cheshire
      Cheshire 30 March 2021 11: 46
      +8
      They themselves are in transit, they themselves will suffer in the first place. Until the welfare ho trash them violet. There will be more slaves in pshekia. wink
    2. prior
      prior 30 March 2021 11: 49
      +1
      In-in. The time will come to join the "Eastern Kresses", and they are beggars. Then feed it Bandera.
    3. Clear
      Clear 30 March 2021 13: 31
      +5
      ... from the position of the Kremlin.

      I always disagree with such a generalized wording. What does the historical complex of buildings have to do with political discourse? request
      ... the positions of a certain circle of people in the Presidential Administration and the Government of Russia. And, there, at the present time, a fig of pro-Western people.
  2. rocket757
    rocket757 30 March 2021 11: 30
    +6
    Polish press: Time is playing against Nord Stream 2
    The Commonwealth expert ... what to take from him. Gas is needed right now, even in the "green plans" such a resource fits well, at the initial stages ... and this initial stage is designed for more than one decade.
    1. marchcat
      marchcat 30 March 2021 11: 44
      +6
      Is there any logic in Germany's refusal from Russian gas? "Green energy" has already "shown" itself in the states and has not led to anything good. And how, then, will the EU behave without sufficient gas?
      1. rocket757
        rocket757 30 March 2021 11: 53
        +2
        Quote: marchcat
        And how, then, will the EU behave without sufficient gas?

        So they will buy it from the outside ... although it is more expensive and with the stability of supply, everything is not easy.
        Anyway, in geyrope everything and everyone will rise in price, but oh, how wrong is it right now, when all plans, finances are already cracking at all the seams ...
        In general, empty chatter from everyone, different.
      2. Pandiurin
        Pandiurin 30 March 2021 12: 09
        +1
        Quote: marchcat
        Is there any logic in Germany's refusal from Russian gas? "Green energy" has already "shown" itself in the states and has not led to anything good. And how, then, will the EU behave without sufficient gas?


        What does the logic have to do with it?
        Angela Merkel is in power, she does not have a pro-American position, she is a Euro-Atlanticist.
        Those. say with Trump, ideological opponents with Biden's team, they are like-minded people.
        Biden, Merkel, Brussels see Europe as the main US and NATO ally, cementing the EU's mechanism.
        In many ways, her policy is directed against the sovereignty of Germany and against her interests, but she cannot express this openly. Reformatting of public opinion in Germany and the EU is often required (MH17, Skripali, Navalny, according to the last active participation of the BND)
        SP2 Merkel sabotages in deeds, but in words supports. If Germany were actively in favor of SP2, it would have been built a long time ago and pumped gas through it with might and main.
        1. Roman070280
          Roman070280 30 March 2021 14: 19
          -1
          SP2 Merkel sabotages in deeds, but in words supports. If Germany were actively in favor of SP2, it would have been built a long time ago and pumped gas through it with might and main.


          And here is Merkel, and her Wishlist ..
          And what does it mean "If Germany were actively in favor of SP2" ??
          Germany is big .. and many people live in it .. and everyone has their own interests ..

          Here you are actively advocating for a water supply system from a neighbor to your site .. but while on the other side I supply you with cheap milk, and I DO NOT want you to pull the water supply system from a neighbor - you will continue to "actively act" .. but you will not pull the pipe. For then you will have water from that neighbor, but you will lose milk from me ..
          Ordinary business - where it is more profitable, they work there.
          It will be more expensive for Germany to receive our gas, but at the same time to lose on the US sanctions .. And Merkel here cannot change the situation in any way !!
          1. Simple
            Simple 31 March 2021 00: 03
            0
            Germany is big .. and many people live in it .. and everyone has their own interests ..

            This is not a big Germany, this is a big US lobby in Germany.
            It should also be noted that Germany lives in a large collective farm called EC.

            For information:
            https://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/klima-energie-und-umwelt/energiewende-chemische-industrie-fordert-mehr-oekostrom-17248364.html
            1. Roman070280
              Roman070280 31 March 2021 11: 45
              -1
              This is not a big Germany, this is a big US lobby in Germany.


              A bunch of German companies, and without any lobby, would prefer to do business with the States, and get more profit from this, rather than sit on our pipe, receiving less benefit ..

              Of course, I want to sit on two chairs at once .. but when they threaten to take away their chair from across the ocean, the Germans quickly sit on it, and not on ours .. Just because that chair is more convenient for them !!
              1. Vladimir Mashkov
                Vladimir Mashkov 31 March 2021 14: 39
                -2
                It can be said unequivocally that SP-2 will not collapse with the departure of Merkel. But it is better not to risk it and try to finish building the SP-2 before the German elections. Although then it will have to be put into operation and new difficulties.
                For some reason I am sure that the Americans necessarily will try to disrupt completion... At least by throwing the great ukrov into battle in the Donbass and making a grandiose Russophobic show out of it ...
              2. Simple
                Simple April 1 2021 10: 09
                0
                At the end of my comment, the link is left - a recommendation for thought.

                If the country looms problems with affordable energy resources, then thoughts on "what is more comfortable to sit on" fades into the background.
      3. Brturin
        Brturin 30 March 2021 12: 46
        +1
        Quote: marchcat
        "Green energy" has already "shown" itself in the states

        green it is green, but 21 states filed a lawsuit against Biden over the cancellation of the Keystone XL pipeline construction ... another 14 state lawsuit in connection with the imposed moratorium on the lease of federal lands for the development of oil and gas fields ... somehow it is not particularly green very....
      4. Nyrobsky
        Nyrobsky 30 March 2021 16: 30
        +2
        Quote: marchcat
        Is there any logic in Germany's refusal from Russian gas? "Green energy" has already "shown" itself in the states and has not led to anything good. And how, then, will the EU behave without sufficient gas?
        So it would not. Germany pumped gas even in those days when Soviet troops were standing behind the wall in the GDR, which did not prevent it from burning ideologically incorrect gas in its burners. Now, in view of the absence of ideological contradictions, all the more there is no reason to abandon the Russian pipeline gas, which will make Germany the largest gas hub in Europe. Poles, poking Berlin with the SP-2, jealously claim their leadership in the EU due to the presence of gas liquefaction terminals and try on the "hub's" skullcap if they accept American LNG and distribute it to the gas network. This irreconcilable Polish position will creep out sideways to the Poles as soon as SP-2 is completed, and there are few doubts that it will be completed.
  3. Cowbra
    Cowbra 30 March 2021 11: 33
    +4
    Who can argue, only you will buy gas. Demon with him, which is several times more expensive, but with the molecules of democracy. One thing is embarrassing, why do you yourself buy gas from Russia? laughing 10 billion cubic meters per year with a total consumption of 19?
    1. orionvitt
      orionvitt 30 March 2021 12: 05
      +1
      Quote: Cowbra
      One thing is embarrassing, why do you yourself buy gas from Russia?

      This is different. laughing
  4. comradChe
    comradChe 30 March 2021 11: 37
    +4
    Russia, with a competent game, will win in any scenario.
  5. Mouse
    Mouse 30 March 2021 11: 43
    +5
    waiting .......
  6. Slon1978
    Slon1978 30 March 2021 11: 51
    +11
    Some childish babble, I swear ... Especially for Vadim Glamazdin from Naftogaz, I will announce a candidate for certification of the gas pipeline - the Russian Maritime Register of Shipping. It is formally no worse than DNV-GL, an internationally recognized classification society. If the US imposes sanctions against him, there will be no major damage, Russia will impose sanctions against ABS. "There are no insurance companies of such a level in Russia that could take over the insurance coverage of the gas pipeline." What is this level? There have never been any man-made disasters on underwater gas pipelines that have caused enormous losses in history. If we are talking about risk, then the risk of pipeline insurance is minimal. If we are talking about the requirement for an insurance company in terms of capitalization, then does anyone doubt that Sogaz or Ingosstrakh can, if necessary, capitalize on it? SP-2 will be completed and not until September, but earlier. Further. The gas pipeline is owned and operated by Nord Stream-2, an international business entity that has no formal relationship to Russia's foreign or domestic policy. On what grounds can its exploitation be stopped if, for example, Navalny is not released? How will it look in court, to which, of course, Nord Stream-2 will file?
  7. orionvitt
    orionvitt 30 March 2021 12: 04
    +2
    Time is playing against Nord Stream 2
    Just not against, but for. In the end, the pipeline is more needed by the Germans (as well as the Austrians, Czechs and other neighbors), so let them keep turning.
  8. nov_tech.vrn
    nov_tech.vrn 30 March 2021 12: 20
    +1
    The old adage, the dog barks and the north stream is coming.
  9. Alien From
    Alien From 30 March 2021 12: 28
    +3
    Lovers of Smolensk birches do not know the sayings: do not share the skin of a bear that has not been killed.
  10. Gennady Fomkin
    Gennady Fomkin 30 March 2021 15: 06
    +1
    European cattle will suffer, die, protest against severe restrictions, but nothing can be done, such is neototalitarianism and the ruling elite of the EU. laughing
  11. Sergey Kulikov_3
    Sergey Kulikov_3 30 March 2021 15: 10
    +1
    if Russia stops the transit of gas through Ukraine, then the gas flow through the SP-2 after its launch will in this case also be stopped
    Just stopping transit through Ukraine is somehow shallow, reducing transit to the level of unprofitability is a more correct decision. Yes, Gazprom will suffer, I will say even more, not only will everyone be able to finish building yachts and palaces, but the image of the world's evil must be matched no matter how difficult it is!
  12. iouris
    iouris 30 March 2021 15: 36
    0
    There is no question for discussion. As it will be - so it will be. There has never been such a thing that somehow it never happened.
  13. boris epstein
    boris epstein 30 March 2021 17: 53
    +1
    First of all, the time is playing against Poland itself. The EU is already gradually removing its newly converted members from the allowance and has just begun to cut off oxygen from the Baltic states and Poland. This is not only wind turbines and tidal power plants, but also the transition to hydrogen fuel. And hydrogen (what an infection!) Is produced from the same Russian gas. And Russia, via Nord Stream-2, offers the EU to supply not only gas, but hydrogen.
    1. Victor Tsenin
      Victor Tsenin 30 March 2021 21: 38
      +1
      New threads are proposed for hydrogen, but you said everything correctly about its origin.
  14. zloybond
    zloybond 30 March 2021 20: 19
    +1
    calmly finish building, but always remember who helped and who crap.
  15. Victor Tsenin
    Victor Tsenin 30 March 2021 21: 35
    +1
    Firstly, the elections in Germany will strengthen the position of the AfD, and secondly, the SP-2 will be completed and will work, very soon on the screens of the whole country.
  16. Graduate student
    Graduate student April 5 2021 00: 44
    +3
    Time is playing against Nord Stream 2

    Who knows what is now playing into the hands of SP-2, and what is against ... Maybe time, maybe politicians. request