Military Review

What can await Nagorno-Karabakh in the event of Pashinyan's resignation: reflections on the near future of the NKR

52

After the defeat of the NKR in the war with Azerbaijan, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan rapidly lost his popularity. His rating actually collapsed, and he himself became the most criticized politician in the Armenian world: Pashinyan is scolded and cursed everywhere, from NKR and Armenia to numerous diasporas around the world. The defeat in the war and the seizure by Azerbaijan of a significant part of the territories formerly controlled by the NKR are not forgiven for Pashinyan.


The Prime Minister himself recently announced that he will leave office in April 2021 to give an opportunity to hold early parliamentary elections. However, so far everything looks like Nikol Pashinyan still really does not want to lose power. And you can understand him: he is afraid of criminal prosecution, which will become almost inevitable.

Karabakh after Pashinyan: New War or Old Uncertainty?


However, now we are not talking about the fate of Pashinyan, which, in general, is of little interest to anyone, but about a more global problem - what awaits Nagorno-Karabakh if ​​the current prime minister leaves office this spring. It is no secret that in the NKR Pashinyan, to put it mildly, is not liked, including for the fact that he did not provide proper assistance to Karabakh at the time of the confrontation with Azerbaijan.

Certain circles in the NKR can also associate revenge with Pashinyan's resignation, but only if Armenia is fully involved in an attempt to return the lost territories. However, it is extremely unlikely that even if Pashinyan resigns and more decisive and belligerent politicians come to power in Yerevan, NKR and Armenia will be the first to start a new conflict.

First, the forces of the parties are too unequal. Whatever the ambitions and infringed national feelings of the Armenian leaders, both in Yerevan and in Stepanakert they are well aware that another armed conflict can put an end to the stories NKR.

Secondly, Moscow is categorically against a new war, and the Russian peacekeepers stationed in Karabakh are the best confirmation of the seriousness of the Kremlin's intentions. True, the mandate for the presence of Russian peacekeepers needs to be periodically extended, but even here it will depend much more on relations between Moscow and Baku.

Conservation of the situation in Karabakh is the most likely development of events


Therefore, another scenario is more likely. A conservation of the existing situation may occur in Karabakh, and this conservation will persist for years, at least if some new global events do not take place or if Azerbaijan does not decide to attack the part of Karabakh that remained under Armenian control.

This situation will persist regardless of which forces are in power in Yerevan - whether Pashinyan, or his opponents, or even people from the military-political circles of Nagorno-Karabakh. The situation can change only if completely "frostbitten" ultranationalist forces come to power in Yerevan, but this is extremely unlikely, and Moscow will most likely try to prevent such a scenario by simply stating its position.

As for the longer-term perspective, everything here will depend not so much on the situation in Armenia itself, but on the whole of the regional and even world political situation. The fate of Karabakh in this vein will be decided in Moscow, Ankara, Washington, but obviously not in Yerevan or Baku. And the political future of Pashinyan will have nothing to do with solving all the problems of the unrecognized republic.
Author:
Photos used:
Twitter / Nikol Pashinyan
52 comments
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  1. The leader of the Redskins
    The leader of the Redskins 29 March 2021 09: 36
    +1
    Why is he without a mask? Or did he see himself as Duncan Macleod both in politics and in life?
    1. knn54
      knn54 29 March 2021 10: 31
      +2
      I remembered something "The Golden Calf" -No applause! The Count of Monte Cristo did not work out of me. We'll have to retrain as a house manager.
      I agree with the author about Moscow, Washington - a lot (if not all) is decided by the local diasporas .. Well, Turkey has long become a powerful regional "player".
      1. Vladimir Mashkov
        Vladimir Mashkov 30 March 2021 15: 03
        0
        Strange article.
        With the fate of Nagorno-Karabakh in the next 5 years, everything is more or less clear: this is a peaceful life under the protection of Russian peacekeepers.
        Much more interesting is what will happen to Armenia and Pashinyan ... smile
  2. svp67
    svp67 29 March 2021 09: 37
    +2
    With the departure of Pashinyan, there can be no revenge and talk, but the strengthening of positions in Karabakh is possible, even most likely likely.
    1. Avior
      Avior 29 March 2021 09: 49
      +8
      All positions in Karabakh are leveled by the narrow Lyachin corridor.
      Whatever prepared positions are, they will very quickly become surrounded by positions - as a result of the conflict, Azerbaijan secured a key military advantage in Karabakh.
      But it is hard to believe in a military solution by Azerbaijan.
      He received in the cut a very necessary corridor to Nakhichevan, put Karabakh under de facto military control and left the financial support of Karabakh in Armenia, and security in Russia.
      Azerbaijan has so many advantages from the agreement that it is not clear why it should violate or cancel this agreement.
      1. Civil
        Civil 29 March 2021 10: 18
        +4
        Quote: Avior
        All positions in Karabakh are leveled by the narrow Lyachin corridor.
        Whatever prepared positions are, they will very quickly become surrounded by positions - as a result of the conflict, Azerbaijan secured a key military advantage in Karabakh.

        1. The Armenians will gradually leave Karabakh on their own, to live in the unrecognized region, and no one will be able to live in a de facto environment. Moreover, there is a hard term of 4,5 years and that's it.
        2. Armenia, even without Karabakh, is losing massively its population. After the loss of Karabakh, the days of Armenia in its present form will expire.
        3. The idiocy of Georgia is simply amazing, after Armenia, the next country will be Georgia. And if Armenia has at least a nominal ally, no one will intercede for Georgia. Therefore, her anti-Armenian position is simply striking in its naive shortsightedness.
        1. Avior
          Avior 29 March 2021 10: 45
          +4
          Who will attack Georgia?
          1. Civil
            Civil 29 March 2021 12: 13
            +1
            Quote: Avior
            Who will attack Georgia?

            All the same Turks in all forms.
          2. Lara Croft
            Lara Croft 29 March 2021 18: 18
            +1
            Quote: Avior
            Who will attack Georgia?

            Adjara is controlled by Turkish business, and in this business on the territory of Adjara it is not local Adjarians who work, but visitors from Turkey, the locals have no prospects ...
            1. Avior
              Avior 29 March 2021 19: 00
              0
              You are exaggerating, this is the first
              The fact that Turkish investors are working for the development of the region is not a reason for Turkey to attack Georgia - Turkey officially recognized the ownership of Batumi a hundred years ago, the Turks do not live there, and indeed Adjara does not have a common border with Turkey.
              Why would the Turks start a senseless war? ...
              1. Lara Croft
                Lara Croft 29 March 2021 19: 16
                +1
                Quote: Avior
                The fact that Turkish investors are working for the development of the region is not a reason for Turkey to attack Georgia

                So I didn't write about Turkey's attack on Georgia ... why troll?
                and indeed Adjara does not have a common border with Turkey.

                it would be better if you didn't write it
                1. Avior
                  Avior 29 March 2021 19: 52
                  0
                  ... So I didn't write about Turkey's attack on Georgia ...

                  So the thread is just about that
                  Who will attack Georgia?

                  And about the fact that it has a border, yes, I was mistaken, it does.
                  But I don’t see what it changes in the context of the issue of the alleged attack on Georgia.
                  1. Lara Croft
                    Lara Croft 29 March 2021 21: 01
                    0
                    Quote: Avior
                    ... So I didn't write about Turkey's attack on Georgia ...

                    So the thread is just about that

                    Yes, I don't care what the branch is about, why should I attribute what I did not write about ....?
                    I kind of wrote in Russian:
                    Adjara is controlled by Turkish business
                    1. Avior
                      Avior 29 March 2021 21: 32
                      +1
                      What did you write about then?
                      I considered the response post in the context of the issue under discussion.
                      If you didn’t write about this, then I don’t understand what to argue about.
                      Well, the Turks have investments in the Adjarian business, they create jobs, it is clear that the Germans trained the Turks in the tourism business, and the experience in this matter is very rich, and what's wrong with that? Investments in tourist business are profitable for Georgians. The number of Turks in Adjara is still at the level of statistical error, despite the peculiarities of Adjara in terms of religion.
                      1. Lara Croft
                        Lara Croft 29 March 2021 22: 47
                        0
                        Quote: Avior
                        What did you write about then?

                        Once again, about what I wrote:
                        Adjara is controlled by Turkish business

                        Apparently, not only have you not been to Armenia (pointing out yesterday to its geographical position and the prerequisites in this regard to its development in terms of the well-being of the Armenians), you haven’t been to Adjara either, if you write that:
                        The number of Turks in Adjara is still at the level of statistical error
                      2. Avior
                        Avior 29 March 2021 23: 55
                        0
                        we haven’t been to Adjara yet

                        did I write that I was?
                        I looked at the percentage of the population in the reference data. I have been in some places, but there are many places on this planet that I have not. And so what? Is there something wrong with the data? I have acquaintances from Georgia, but I have never discussed the territorial features of Adjara with them, although I thought of going on occasion, but this epidemic began.
                        Apparently you not only have not been to Armenia (pointing out yesterday to its geographical position and the prerequisites in this regard, to its development in terms of the well-being of Armenians)

                        Are you talking about?
                        Adjara is controlled by Turkish business

                        and why is this in the context of the question raised in the thread in which you left this post?
      2. Lara Croft
        Lara Croft 29 March 2021 18: 29
        0
        Quote: Civil
        1. The Armenians will gradually leave Karabakh on their own, to live in the unrecognized region, and no one will be able to live in a de facto environment.

        Well, before they lived, like in the unrecognized NKR ... the environment is also not a hindrance, an example of the PMR ..., and there is no corridor ...
        The NKR will begin to leave the Armenians when the Azerbaijanis begin to settle in the NKR, and there will be no Armenians left in the power structures, while the Armenians will trample on the NKR en masse when the RF Armed Forces leave there ...
        The idiocy of Georgia is simply amazing, after Armenia, the next country will be Georgia. And if Armenia has at least a nominal ally, then no one will intercede for Georgia. Therefore, her anti-Armenian position is simply striking in its naive shortsightedness.

        I agree. Only the Russian Federation is not a nominal ally for the RA, the "darkest" made it clear that if the hostilities affected the RA, the Russian Federation would knock its hooves off to the enemy ...
  • Terenin
    Terenin 29 March 2021 09: 45
    +7
    reflections on the near future of the NKR

    The future of all post-Soviet so-called states depends on the future of Russia.
  • Bakinec
    Bakinec 29 March 2021 09: 55
    +3
    "After the defeat of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic by Azerbaijan" - respected author, it was not some NyKyRy that suffered defeat, but Armenia. Are you, like Pegov or Sheinin, going to assert that Armenia did not participate in the war? Watch sometimes the reports about the protests of the parents of conscripts in Armenia who are protesting against the service of their children in Karabakh. The agreement of November 10 was signed by Putin, Aliyev and Pashinyan. And Pashinyan is the prime minister of Armenia and not the king of NyKyRy.
    As for the prospects for the situation in Karabakh, the agreement contains a clause on the return of refugees, which shows that there will be no freezing of the situation. Because when more than 200 thousand Azeri refugees against 50 thousand Armenians return to the territory under control under the agreement, the result of a possible referendum becomes obvious.
    1. Lara Croft
      Lara Croft 29 March 2021 18: 43
      0
      Quote: Bakinec
      "After the defeat of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic by Azerbaijan" - respected author, it was not some NyKyRy that suffered defeat, but Armenia. Are you, like Pegov or Sheinin, going to assert that Armenia did not participate in the war? Watch sometimes the reports about the protests of the parents of conscripts in Armenia who are protesting against the service of their children in Karabakh. The agreement of November 10 was signed by Putin, Aliyev and Pashinyan. And Pashinyan is the prime minister of Armenia and not the king of NyKyRy.
      As for the prospects for the situation in Karabakh, the agreement contains a clause on the return of refugees, which shows that there will be no freezing of the situation. Because when more than 200 thousand Azeri refugees against 50 thousand Armenians return to the territory under control under the agreement, the result of a possible referendum becomes obvious.

      One can agree with all of the above, except for one, in Azerbaijan itself there are neither 200 people, nor 000 people who are ready to move, as you write in NyKyR, for permanent residence ...
      But mostly poor citizens are interested in repatriation, which is not very consistent with the grandiose plans of officials, experts say. Izvestia visited a number of districts and looked at the starting points from which the republic is starting to implement them.

      https://iz.ru/1124945/nataliia-portiakova/territoriia-pomyslov-kakoe-budushchee-azerbaidzhan-zadumal-dlia-karabakha
      Although the liberated territories of Azerbaijan and parts of the NKR will be rebuilt as hard as the Russian Federation Crimea and Sevastopol ...
      1. Bakinec
        Bakinec 29 March 2021 23: 04
        0
        Naturally, until the infrastructure and houses are restored on these territories, until the land is demarcated, no one wants to move there. Although almost every week we hear the news that someone was blown up by a mine in an attempt to look at their own houses. But work is underway. And at a high rate. First of all, they will populate the territories around the territories that will be controlled by the peacekeepers. And then these territories will be settled. Of course, this is work for at least 10 years. But as the 2020 war has shown, we can wait. We managed to wait 30 years, and we will be able to 10. And then be sure that there will be no problems with the relocation of the population.
  • Petrik66
    Petrik66 29 March 2021 09: 58
    +3
    Azerbaijani of the Year))))))
  • Hottabych
    Hottabych 29 March 2021 10: 08
    +1
    Azerbaijan won this war, there will be no further war. The tactic of economic strangulation will be used.
  • Daniil Konovalenko
    Daniil Konovalenko 29 March 2021 10: 46
    +1
    The fate of Karabakh in this vein will be decided in Moscow, Ankara, Washington, but obviously not in Yerevan or Baku.
    ... Yerevan and Baku do not decide anything, they decide for them. 100 years ago, in this region, local nationalist governments did not decide anything, even the "valiant" Volunteer Army decided for them. History repeats itself.
  • Krasnodar
    Krasnodar 29 March 2021 13: 16
    +1
    All the bumps are dumped on Pashinyan, forgetting that he was in power only two years before the start of the war. His predecessors:
    a fortified area was not built in Karabakh ala alpine in Switzerland;
    an effective Israeli / Swiss-style mobilization system has not been built;
    the army did not keep pace with the times, completely ignoring the threats existing from Azerbaijan.
    Pashinyan's anti-Russian policy - yes, his fault, however, the people of Armenia did not particularly bother and did not take offense)).
    Before the war. After the loss, they found a scapegoat.
    1. Lara Croft
      Lara Croft 29 March 2021 18: 56
      +1
      Quote: Krasnodar
      All the bumps are dumped on Pashinyan, forgetting that he was in power only two years before the start of the war. His predecessors:
      a fortified area was not built in Karabakh ala alpine in Switzerland;
      an effective Israeli / Swiss-style mobilization system has not been built;
      the army did not keep pace with the times, completely ignoring the threats existing from Azerbaijan.
      Pashinyan's anti-Russian policy - yes, his fault, however, the people of Armenia did not particularly bother and did not take offense)).
      Before the war. After the loss, they found a scapegoat.

      They wrote in vain, now they will minus.
      And most importantly, not a word in the media about the NKR Government. What it has been doing for all 30 years, it was waiting for help, but in terms of tanks and guns the PA, the NKR Armed Forces exceeded the RA Armed Forces.
      And so it turned out, the citizens of the Republic of Armenia were not ready to fight for the NKR, and the citizens of the NKR and the Republic of Armenia all together did not want to fight for the regions of Azerbaijan occupied by the RA around the NKR.
      1. Krasnodar
        Krasnodar 29 March 2021 19: 10
        +1
        Well, not really like that
        The NKR army differs from the RA army in only one thing - the Karabakh people serve only in the NKR and seven regions, the inhabitants of the metropolis serve in Karabakh and in other parts of Armenia. An agreement is signed for the Artsakh service, the bulk of which does it on a rotational basis.
        To the question of why Pashinyan did not throw all his forces into the NKR (and there were about 50 thousand of them fresh), the answer is simple - the movement of such a large mass of soldiers with Karabakh cross-country ability was easy to document, so the CSTO treaty clause on aid in case of aggression was immediately leveled (since the RA Armed Forces would have struck the first on the de Jure territory of Azerbaijan) and the Nakhichevan group of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Azerbaijan (40 thousand) would have gone into action, which would have cut off Armenia from the border with Iran.
        Therefore, there was a failure in preparation, not in the conduct of the actions themselves. It was a beating, and in a very difficult terrain for the attackers.
        1. Lara Croft
          Lara Croft 29 March 2021 19: 35
          0
          Quote: Krasnodar
          and the Nakhichevan group of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Azerbaijan (40 thousand) would go into action, which would cut off Armenia from the border with Iran.

          Well, the AK of the Armed Forces of Azerbaijan, of course, this is not 40 thousand military units, you are exaggerating, to put it mildly, besides, in order for the Azerbaijani AK to cut off Armenia from Iran, it would be necessary to occupy a part of the Republic of Armenia bordering on Iran, and this is a direct invasion ... RA ....

          In order to avoid the seizure of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces of the NKR and adjacent districts, the RA already in peacetime had to keep 2/3 of its ground forces outside the RA or make the NKR Armed Forces stronger and larger even to the detriment of the RA Armed Forces ...
          At the moment, the RA, having retained its Army, is isolated from the NKR and the NKR will no longer be able to help anything ...
          The NKR authorities have already begun to understand that they can only rely on themselves and partly on the Russian Federation ...
          Parliament of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR) on Thursday, March 25, adopted a law on the recognition of the Russian language as the second official language.

          https://iz.ru/1142322/2021-03-25/parlament-nagornogo-karabakha-priznal-russkii-vtorym-ofitcialnym-iazykom
          It is also unprofitable for the RF to lose the NKR, since it is located and from it you can control the existing and future communications in the South Caucasus, the importance of the NKR is increasing, however, like the Karabakh Armenians need the support of the Russian Federation ...
          1. Avior
            Avior 29 March 2021 20: 01
            +7
            Taking into account the fact that according to the latest census of 2025, only 146 Russians lived in 000 Armenians in Karabakh, the recognition of Russian as official is a common profanation.
            1. Lara Croft
              Lara Croft 29 March 2021 20: 04
              +2
              Quote: Avior
              Taking into account the fact that according to the latest census of 2025, only 146 Russians lived in 000 Armenians in Karabakh, the recognition of Russian as official is a common profanation.

              I guessed something like this, and now you ruined the whole mood of the local cheers-patriots ... you were wrong with the year of the census ... just ...
              1. Avior
                Avior 29 March 2021 20: 19
                +3
                2015 census
                The phone has a stupid habit of correcting me in every little detail and redoing the text, it looks like it got to the numbers. :)
            2. Krasnodar
              Krasnodar 29 March 2021 21: 11
              0
              Quote: Avior
              Taking into account the fact that according to the latest census of 2025, only 146 Russians lived in 000 Armenians in Karabakh, the recognition of Russian as official is a common profanation.

              It's common - strong, when needed, kiss, when not needed - we send)).
          2. Krasnodar
            Krasnodar 29 March 2021 20: 14
            0
            Read about the separate combined arms army of Nakhchivan))
            Quite right - as I wrote, if the RA had thrown all its troops into the territory of Karabakh, it would have been noticed and documented and would have invaded the RA from the side of Nakhichevan, since The documented introduction of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Armenia into the territory of Karabakh would be regarded as aggression against Azerbaijan and the CSTO protocol would not work.
            I think that the Armenians kept significant forces in the NKR.
            There is no such de facto - the NKR army. They are just static in Karabakh. Read the satellite Armenia - how many dead and missing conscripts from Yerevan were in the 44-day war.
            The Armenians have poorly preserved the technique.
            ??
            Russia needs peacekeepers in Karabakh only for a military presence in the Turkish presence zone.
            NKR itself is not needed by anyone.
  • The comment was deleted.
    1. OgnennyiKotik
      OgnennyiKotik 29 March 2021 20: 27
      0
      Excellent analysis. The fact that the “west” is making it clear is that it directs Turkey to Central Asia (or is it time to return the name Turkestan?) As opposed to Russia and China. Turkey itself is increasingly falling under Britain and its control is only increasing. Armenia and Georgia are a wall specially created by our ancestors against this expansion. Georgia has already been crushed, it remains for Armenia to put the squeeze on.
      The main thing is that there is no positive agenda in Russia itself, it is not clear what good we are bringing. In view of the events of 2020, it is no longer entirely clear whether we can bring bad things on the tracks of tanks.
  • Azimuth
    Azimuth 29 March 2021 20: 04
    +1
    Quote: Krasnodar
    All the bumps are dumped on Pashinyan, forgetting that he was in power only two years before the start of the war. His predecessors:
    a fortified area was not built in Karabakh ala alpine in Switzerland;
    an effective Israeli / Swiss-style mobilization system has not been built;
    the army did not keep pace with the times, completely ignoring the threats existing from Azerbaijan.
    Pashinyan's anti-Russian policy - yes, his fault, however, the people of Armenia did not particularly bother and did not take offense)).
    Before the war. After the loss, they found a scapegoat.

    This is how everything looks in our presentation and interpretation of the situation. "Krasnodar", you have a second Armenia close by, talk to people, you will not be surprised ...
    1. Krasnodar
      Krasnodar 29 March 2021 21: 13
      0
      My conclusions are based on communication with people)).
  • Azimuth
    Azimuth 30 March 2021 00: 19
    +2
    Quote: Krasnodar
    My conclusions are based on communication with people)).

    Here I am, about the same ...

    Have you noticed that we started to drain Kocharyan, realizing that he is an impassable figure? This and other body movements are very reminiscent of Ukraine, the development of the situation in that case.
    The heroization of Bender - Nzhdeh, the pro-Western Pashinyan, the Armenian Yushchenko, well, perhaps we will push through which of our Armenian Yanukovych, although this is hard to believe, but even if, after all, there will be a pro-Western Poroshenko again ...

    I was so amused by the story with the announcement of the Russian "official", but I will note not the state one, although our uryakalki, not realizing it, began to go in ecstasy, forgetting about a small nuance. In Karabakh, a monument to Nzhdeh - Bandera was unveiled right in front of our nose, although later it was draped at the "request of the Azerbaijani side" ... The fact that we covered the monument to this Nazi henchman in Armavir, and Nazi Sabbaths near his empty grave in Vladimir, what was clear , there is nowhere to go, the position of our Foreign Ministry was expressed through the mouth of Zakharova, this, as it were, did not happen. The fact that, in response to the indignation of the Jews in connection with the glorification of Nzhdeh-Bandera, in Armenia the Nazis outraged the monument to the victims of the Holocaust, this for us also did not happen, well, we are not Jews.

    We have not yet lost to Armenia, but apparently everything is heading towards that, as he wrote in a deleted post, but we turn a blind eye to this.
    And I will repeat myself with the fact that Russian was declared the official language, with a sarcastic clarification that the state Armenian ...

    Let it be known not to you, but to our uryakalka, our language is the official language throughout the CIS and one of the so-called international languages ​​of the UN. The same Maloros and Georgians with the CIS countries still conclude agreements in ... Russian. But we are proud, we needed so little not to see our next fiasco, to broadcast to the whole that some piece of the territory with an area of ​​3000 sq. Km declared Russian official, that's really an honor ...

    And try to communicate with ordinary people from afar, having disposed to yourself, well, pretend to be a crest, otherwise there is a set of phrases on duty in response and no more. It's easier for me the neighbors are Armenians
    1. Krasnodar
      Krasnodar 30 March 2021 08: 12
      0
      I have Armenian friends. One second generation in the Russian Federation, another Muscovite from the time of his grandfather. All this is alien to them.
      Another one who has come in large numbers - it is already more interesting to communicate with him about politics.
      The Armenian society is very divided - Karabakh, Yerevan, and others.
      Past governments crushed the potential of the Republic of Armenia to become a national hotbed of a very sensible Armenian people, using anti-Turkish populism, having got themselves a feeding trough in a separate post-Soviet country. Pashinyan - so, the figure who led the discontent that has been accumulating for years.
      But the Armenians did not abandon one aspect, which has been nurtured for decades. There are three types of Khartoum.
      There is no normal relationship with the Turks,
      There are no compromises with Azerbaijan on disputed territories.
      No warming of relations with neighbors in general.
      This comes from the mentality. Property is everything. During the crisis, my friend bought up commercial real estate in Moscow and Krasnodar for bucks.
      - Why are you buying property that is getting cheaper with the more expensive dollars?
      - What do you mean why? Grandchildren will be, children will be ...
      - So save the bucks, make a couple of smart deals in the West, there is no crisis, in ten years for every dollar you will pull out two
      - Oh, why do I need these dollars ..
      The result for 7 years - out of the invested half a million tanks, the property is about the same, it is still in little demand. The dollar instead of 60 then is under 75 now. An apartment in Tel Aviv, instead of half a million tanks in 2014, costs 800 thousand tanks, and people in loans hi
      But with property that no one needs
  • Azimuth
    Azimuth 30 March 2021 09: 44
    0
    Quote: Krasnodar
    I have Armenian friends. One second generation in the Russian Federation, another Muscovite from the time of his grandfather. All this is alien to them.
    Another one who has come in large numbers - it is already more interesting to communicate with him about politics.
    Armenian society is very divided - Karabakh, Yerevan, others
    We are talking about different people - I am about Armenians, I mean Armenians, my neighbors are citizens of Armenia and do not connect the future of either their own, let alone their grandchildren, with Russia, you are talking about Russians of Armenian nationality. Agree, with the same success it would be possible to speak about Turkish citizens with Armenian roots, Islamized, etc.
    The Armenians living with us will not determine the future of Armenia, they have made their choice, these are our citizens, they are Russians. Well, it is quite difficult to imagine that Margarita Simonyan and her husband will repatriate to Armenia tomorrow and will raise this country in some kind of Armenian conditionally "kibbutz". After all, this did not happen before, look at the shots of Azerbaijanis from the territories they took under their control, there is a lunar landscape, or as they write Hiroshima. Where are there tens, hundreds of thousands of repatriates, patriots of Armenians? They weren't there. Therefore, they should not be taken into account, as well as their opinion.

    For clarity, I will give an example from life. Armenia and our Armenians, all this reminds me of a story from my circle. We had two, one a condot and a circumcised Jew, the other kind of like a Russian. After Chechnya, our Russian, recalls that his grandmother is Jewish and leaves for Israel, serves and fights there, marries and takes root in full. We were visiting, frankly, he lives much, much more modestly than any of our circle, and knows very well about this, since he also happens to be with us, but now he is a Jew and does not see any future of his own, the future of his grandchildren outside the Jewish state of Israel ... Ours, as we thought, is a condo Jew, as they say, now serves in the Administration under His Majesty and no carrots either before, much less now, will not be dragged into Israel.
    Do you understand the difference?

    So with the Armenians, WHAT can our Armenians, Russians living in Moscow, Rostov, Krasnodar, Sochi, MinVody, Pyatigorsk, decide in Armenia and who made their choice? ... Yes, they made noise, yes, they wrote, we were here too witnesses, but none of those whom I know, even with the experience of the war in the Caucasus, did not budge and did not go to Armenia despite the flights and appeals.
    But my neighbor took his son and nephew immediately pulled there. They had time only for the nodding analysis, but the fact, the action.

    As in the case of Ukraine, and not in vain I draw an analogy, there are indeed many similarities, including in terms of our mistakes, the fate of Armenia, as well as the fate of Ukraine, will be decided by those living THERE, and not here with us. Well, judge for yourself, what in Ukraine can the Ukrainians living with us influence? - IMHO, no matter what. Likewise, the Armenians from Krasnodar or Moscow do not influence anything in Armenia, especially since many of them do not have roots or relatives there, they were not tourists in Armenia, and their ancestors from Turkey were immediately settled in the North Caucasus.

    A lot smiled at myself, but if you are interested, watch this interview. He himself became interested in a new one after the war in Karabakh, only after they threw off the video with a torchlight procession in front of our embassy, ​​only not in Kiev, but in Yerevan ...
    1. OgnennyiKotik
      OgnennyiKotik 30 March 2021 10: 47
      -1
      Quote: Azimuth
      but if you are interested, watch this interview.

      Works beautifully. At the beginning of the "interview" he cuts the truth about which the Armenians do not speak but know. After creating a sense of truthfulness, propaganda begins. Turkey = Russia = enemy.
      In the beginning I thought that he was working for Britain, who understands that region cannot ignore it so purposefully, but looks more like a French creature.
  • Azimuth
    Azimuth 30 March 2021 23: 48
    0
    Quote: OgnennyiKotik
    Quote: Azimuth
    but if you are interested, watch this interview.

    Works beautifully. At the beginning of the "interview" he cuts the truth about which the Armenians do not speak but know. After creating a sense of truthfulness, propaganda begins. Turkey = Russia = enemy.
    In the beginning I thought that he was working for Britain, who understands that region cannot ignore it so purposefully, but looks more like a French creature.
    It was not so important to me who he was eating in the trash heap, I decided that it was a pro-Amerian fruit. The story and the logic are interesting, how he builds chains of facts and brings everything to Russia - the enemy. And besides, he also throws in to his opponent, they say there you have 20000 Russians, and not two as in the agreement, etc. - "I kill seven in one fell swoop." But what he says in one interpretation or another I hear from the majority of Armenians from Armenia.
    1. OgnennyiKotik
      OgnennyiKotik 31 March 2021 00: 22
      -1
      Quote: Azimuth
      I decided it was a pro-Amerian fruit.

      The United States works on the principle of divide and conquer. Hotbeds of tension are created in each region. Libya, for example, is a classic. The PNS is an officially supported structure of the United States, the LNA is headed by an open CIA agent Haftar. For PNS Britain, Italy, Turkey; for LNA France, Saudis, UAE, Russia. And they squabble with each other, not one decision can be made without the United States.
      Transcaucasia is the same. Georgia under France, Azerbaijan under Britain. There is a struggle for Armenia. But behind each side is the United States.
      Quote: Azimuth
      how he builds chains of facts and brings everything to Russia - the enemy.

      His manipulations with white thread are sewn, but to understand this you need to have critical thinking. The Armenians really disappoint me. Apparently they degenerated completely in their homeland. All the smart and capable left, the worst remained.
      The only chance for the physical survival of Armenia and Armenians as a nation is an alliance with Russia. Even more, the entry into the Union State of Russia and Belarus. Turks and "Western" countries will simply tear them apart. No one quarrels with the Turks and Azerbaijan, if something serious does not happen, they will get off with ridiculous sanctions to calm the voters.
      I have already spoken about the Russian government.
  • Azimuth
    Azimuth 31 March 2021 20: 19
    0
    Quote: OgnennyiKotik
    The only chance for the physical survival of Armenia and Armenians as a nation is an alliance with Russia. Even more, the entry into the Union State of Russia and Belarus. Turks and "Western" countries will simply tear them apart.
    We do not value what we have, but having lost we cry ...
    The same Ukrainians still do not realize that, albeit to some extent and clumsy, but in fact we saved Ukraine and, as before, it is we who are the guarantor of its existence in general and within its current borders. Agree, against the background of statehood in general and in general, Crimea and Donbass, a small area in the east, is NOTHING and incomparable.
    And what about the Armenians - they are a microbe against the background of Ukraine, for the same Turks they will not even fit on one tooth. Even though they perebdit, and started smacking missiles from their territory, they froze most of their forces on the territory of Armenia itself, expecting a retaliatory strike from Azerbaijan, although this would not have helped them in any way.

    Gradually the dust and the fog dissipate and the details begin to emerge, and suddenly, and why, Aliev became affectionate, fluffy and tame and withdrew his troops from the outskirts of Stepanakert, which by that time had occupied, more on that below.

    Quote: OgnennyiKotik
    No one quarrels with the Turks and Azerbaijan, if something serious does not happen, they will get off with ridiculous sanctions to calm the voters.
    I have already spoken about the Russian government.
    Incorrect assessment, I recommend reading the news:
    https://argumenti.ru/army/2021/03/716128
    In Shashi, the wreckage of two Iskander OTRK missiles was found ... - M. Not "-E", which are in service with Armenia, but "-M", which are in service with only one country, to which no matter how much "Russia has betrayed" spat on, and so on. subchiki similar to the one discussed above.
    Formally, Armenia was the aggressor, formally inflicting missile strikes from its own territory on Azerbaijan, it could no longer rely on the CSTO mechanisms and a bilateral agreement with us, on our explicit intervention in the future. In turn, Azerbaijan could then raze the center of Yerevan to the ground, after all, it was subjected to aggression, a blow was struck on its territory, and the Turks, who placed their F-16s at its airfields, supported it. And with the Turks, we would not get into a conflict, it's not about strength, although the Turks are NATO, but in the Bosphorus. If we attacked the Turks, although it would not have reached a real war, it would have been a fact and the Turks would have blocked the Bosphorus, and would have done it under the protection and to the joy of NATO ... cornfields of the collective farm "Old Testaments of Ilyich", which we gave them ...
    But the marvelous, miraculous, marvelous, the Transcaucasian prince, despite all his thundering and shaking of his hand with a skinny hairy fist, did not risk not only delivering a retaliatory blow, but also withdrew the troops from Stepanakert ... And by the way, how he supported us by lisping and covering the broken mouth "Did not fly, did not fly" laughing Yes, it turns out that it was flying in and he knew perfectly well what and from whom it was flying, and quickly turned on the back one, realizing that the Turks would not help, as long as only dust would remain from his anik of warriors.

    At the time, "Iskander" to "Argument" to rename laughing

    Well, the Armenians once again - we do not value what we have, but when we lose it we cry ...
    1. OgnennyiKotik
      OgnennyiKotik 31 March 2021 21: 22
      -1
      Quote: Azimuth
      In Shashi, the wreckage of two Iskander OTRK missiles was found ... - M. Not "-E" in service with Armenia, but "-M",

      The situation with them is strange, why the Azerbaijanis published these data is not clear. We must look at the dynamics. The fact that the Iskanders were working is a confirmed fact even during the war, the news is that in the Shushi region, the remains of missiles were found. And I have a feeling that they were simply brought there, nothing in the photo indicates that they fell there.
      Aliyev needs to be between Moscow and Ankara, to keep a balance, this is the guarantee of his existence. Maybe they started playing the card Russia saved Armenia, and Aliyev plays along. But this means Russia = the enemy of Azerbaijan. Some kind of game is going on, but it is not clear what kind. These photos could not appear without Aliyev's instructions. They were leaked through Azerbaijani propaganda channels.
      The current situation around Artsakh is beneficial to everyone, so the war was stopped. The remains of Artsakh are of no use to anyone, but their suspended state is beneficial to everyone. Naturally, the opinion of the peoples of Armenia and Azerbaijan is in tenth place.
  • Azimuth
    Azimuth 31 March 2021 23: 44
    0
    I can’t speak objectively without knowing the situation thoroughly, but returning to communication with the Armenians from Armenia, drawing analogies with the mistakes of our authorities in Ukraine, it is clearly noticeable that we are already losing Armenia too. Still, the Armenians are not Asians, everything is simple with Azerbaijan, the main issue there is the preservation of Aliyev's personal power, his personal enrichment, the enrichment of numerous relatives and nukers. There is likely to really chhat on the population, as, for example, in the same Turkmenistan or Tajikistan, these countries are of the same order. In Armenia, the opinion of the population still has to be reckoned with. And the fact that a significant part of the population has taken more either pro-Western positions, or even anti-Russian ones, only testifies to our failure in this direction as well.

    With Iskander, the story is funny, Aliyev appears in a stupid light, and Pashinyan is just as rehabilitated with his 10%. In general, there is an impression of Aliyev's loss of popularity before the war, some increase during the war, the first days after the war, and the recession now, after the war. Everything that he saw in Russian, everywhere he is essentially accused of cowardice, that is, his order to withdraw troops from Stepanakert is more associated with fear of personal sanctions, seizure of accounts and property. It is noticeable that he is not as strong, capable and experienced as his father, and with his multi-vector games between Turkey and us, against the backdrop of growing public discontent and a wave of criticism, he is likely to either lose or surrender power, and this will happen in the foreseeable future.
    1. OgnennyiKotik
      OgnennyiKotik April 1 2021 00: 03
      -1
      Quote: Azimuth
      There is likely to really chhat on the population, as, for example, in the same Turkmenistan or Tajikistan, these countries are of the same order.

      The same is true in Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus. Identical eastern authoritarian regimes with their own variations. Georgia and Kyrgyzstan stand out. Ukraine and the Baltic states are "common European" colonial countries.
      Quote: Azimuth
      The story with Iskander is funny, Aliyev appears in a stupid light,

      She is strange and incomprehensible. After all, the drain went through a propaganda channel, i.e. under the control of the authorities of Azerbaijan. We look in dynamics.
      Everything in Azerbaijan is cemented, you either love Aliyev, or you love being in prison. About materials in Russian, they can be paid for by anyone. And the patriots of Azerbaijan really have a lot of questions for him.
  • Azimuth
    Azimuth April 1 2021 22: 51
    0
    Quote: OgnennyiKotik
    Everything in Azerbaijan is cemented, you either love Aliyev, or you love being in prison. About materials in Russian, they can be paid for by anyone. And the patriots of Azerbaijan really have a lot of questions for him.
    A comrade recently told me similar things about the situation in Belarus. Not only "Westerners" are imprisoned there, but simply opponents of Lukashenka.

    PS But with your remarks you convinced me of my first suspicion that you are Azerbaijani. What is the essence and meaning of your encryption?
    1. OgnennyiKotik
      OgnennyiKotik April 1 2021 23: 10
      -1
      Quote: Azimuth
      Not only "Westerners" are imprisoned there, but simply opponents of Lukashenka.

      There, first of all, they imprison about Russian candidates and stifle pro-Russian views. "Westerners" are afraid to touch, maximum expulsion from the country. This is how Lukashenka retained power, so we'll see what happens next.
      Quote: Azimuth
      But with your remark, you convinced me of my first suspicion that you are Azerbaijani.

      Consider anyone you want, I don't care. I am not encrypted.
      I am also surprised by your knowledge of that region. Basically, there are Azerbaijani, Armenian, Russian uryakly.
      1. Azimuth
        Azimuth April 1 2021 23: 26
        0
        Rather not pro-Russian, although such people are beaten. The threat is more like calling them "traditionalists" or something. They do not see the advantages of integration to the West, realizing that the main market for Belarus is Russia, at least my friend and others like him, but “Lukashenka’s genius” has already gotten out of it. Practitioners, production workers, entrepreneurs, qualified specialists and workers, are simply tired of the "Old Man", his incompetence, impudence, constant mistakes and pushing them onto others, making decisions at their expense, and all under the blah blah "enemies are all around." The question, if there are enemies around, so maybe the ataman is needed more, with a head, and not a thieving demagogue a piece-cutter, remains unanswered.
        In short, everything is like ours, anyone who is against elementary stupidity and rampant embezzlement immediately enters into either Westerners or Navalny's supporters.
        1. OgnennyiKotik
          OgnennyiKotik April 1 2021 23: 35
          -1
          Anglo-Saxons "lame ducks" change immediately. Without waiting for them to lose all credibility. They always bet on the winner. Ours hold on to the last. Why do we need Lukashenka, Assad, Maduro? You need to change them to others, they do not cause anything but irritation.
          Syria can only be stabilized by the replacement of the Assads; the Turks and the United States will not negotiate with them. Without this, the war will not stop there, and we certainly do not need it.
  • Azimuth
    Azimuth April 2 2021 11: 48
    -1
    Quote: OgnennyiKotik
    Anglo-Saxons "lame ducks" change immediately. Without waiting for them to lose all credibility. They always bet on the winner. Ours hold on to the last. Why do we need Lukashenka, Assad, Maduro? You need to change them to others, they do not cause anything but irritation.
    Syria can only be stabilized by the replacement of the Assads; the Turks and the United States will not negotiate with them. Without this, the war will not stop there, and we certainly do not need it.

    Let's return to the topic of Iskander-M OTRK, which could not have been in service with Armenia by definition, and the wreckage of its missile, which Azerbaijani sappers found in Karabakh.
    The wreckage was transported and put up in Baku, that is, Aliyev intends to promote the topic, and this is either recognition of us by a third party to the conflict, or accusation of us violating an international agreement and supplying Armenia with missiles with a range of more than 300 km.

    What goals does Aliyev pursue in the end, what does he achieve by this?
    1. OgnennyiKotik
      OgnennyiKotik April 2 2021 12: 07
      -1
      Quote: Azimuth
      that is, Aliyev intends to promote the topic

      For the third day I have been surprised. I immediately said that this topic is being promoted by the Azerbaijani authorities. This is definitely a blow to Russia. Pashinyan said that the Iskanders did not work. Here's the confirmation.
      The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation said that the Iskanders were not used in principle - this is a double failure: 1. The Iskanders were used by the Armenians, there is a video confirmation, now a photo of the missiles 2. They showed a strike on the Syrian hospital, the fact of which was denied for several years.
      Aliyev said: "We have not seen the launch of the Iskander missile." Previously, they did not see them, they did not hit the troops and targets, so they did not know that the Iskanders were being used, now they "accidentally" found them. There are no contradictions. Naturally, they knew about their use right away, but left the workpiece for later.
      Now Pashinyan is on horseback, Aliyev will otmazhutsya, the RF Ministry of Defense balabolas with the letter P. Pashinyan is meeting with Putin on April 7. An information bomb may be prepared for this meeting. There is also the promotion of the topic of RA soldiers in Karabakh. Azerbaijan needs the complete disarmament of Artsakh, this can only be done by Russia, therefore they are under pressure.
      There is another point. There are all signs of preparation for the start of a war with Ukraine, if it starts, then strikes will be delivered in Syria, Karabakh (possibly in Armenia itself), in Transnistria, South Ossetia at once. Russia will not be able to wage war on so many fronts at the same time. There are no grounds for the use of nuclear weapons; nothing threatens the Russian Federation itself.

      Here is a video of the launches of the Armenian Iskander.