What reforms will save the Russian aviation industry?
It’s not possible to harness one cart
Horse and quivering doe.
I inadvertently forgot:
Now I pay a madness tribute ...
A.S. Pushkin. "Poltava"
Horse and quivering doe.
I inadvertently forgot:
Now I pay a madness tribute ...
A.S. Pushkin. "Poltava"
So, the reform, about which we have already talked so much and fiercely, has actually begun. And it began as usual in our country, that is, with a regime of the strictest secrecy, a minimum of intelligible information, and, accordingly, a fairly large number of rumors and conjectures.
The main and not very pleasant moment was that the reform began to be associated with Anatoly Serdyukov, who had already reformed our army quite well, and then worked hard for the good of the Russian helicopter industry.
Let's look at the numbers.
The plant in Kazan shows the following results for the sale of helicopters:
2014 - 107 pcs.
2015 - 77 pcs.
2016 - 70 pcs.
2017 - 65 pcs.
2018 - 52 pcs.
2019 - 52 helicopters.
In Kumertau, Arseniev and Rostov-on-Don, the situation is no better. But helicopters are worthy of special consideration, here are just numbers that show how successful the reforms in the helicopter industry have been.
Now it's turn for aviation... The process went on, as one used to say historical character of great destructive power.
In general, even at first glance, everything does not look very sane. We've already gone through this: consolidation, creation of huge (and clumsy) centers and holdings, re-registration, transfer of property back and forth and other gestures of an incomprehensible nature.
Why is it believed that Serdyukov is behind this? And the line of conduct for all sorts of enlargements is very similar.
It is worth remembering the idea of the former minister to reduce the number of military airfields by enlarging them. So on the Voronezh "Baltimore", according to his plans, the local bomber regiment, increased to a division, and the materiel of the Gagarin Academy, and the Borisoglebsk Aviation School were supposed to huddle. Plus, the airfield could be used to "jump" heavy bombers and strategists.
Very convenient, right? Everything in one place, a couple of missiles - and complete order. And expanse for saboteurs. In general, in a situation "if something happens" the opponent of Anatoly Eduardovich, I think, would have presented him with a very high award ...
It did not grow together. Shoigu canceled plans for enlargement, the airfields remained in the same quantities and (unfortunately) qualities. But at least it was not dismantled for building.
And now there is consolidation in the aviation sector. In order not to sit still.
The idea of creating two huge centers, management and design, in the light of all these events, and even people who have proven themselves not in the best (and even the worst) way, is alarming.
But suddenly Serdyukov's surname was changed by another. Sergey Chemezov, general director of Rostec, decided to take over the management of the reforms. Moreover, Rostec confirmed Chemezov's intentions to take the post of chairman of the UAC Board of Directors and refused to comment on information on Serdyukov's movements.
According to information from Rostec, Chemezov decided to head the UAC board of directors in order to personally supervise the transformation process.
How much Chemezov is better or worse than Serdyukov is difficult to say. Everyone will be able to deduce this for themselves, simply by reading Chemezov's biography on their own, starting from service in the GDR, in the ranks of the Soviet KGB (unexpectedly, yes) and to the modern situation, when he heads many different structures, and his wife bears the title of the most expensive women entrepreneur. And of course, not without corruption scandals.
In our time, all this is commonplace and there is not even much to talk about here.
Why would the Hero of Russia and full holder of the Order of Merit to the Fatherland Sergei Chemezov become so intently watching?
And he will watch how, in the course of the reform, something from the MiG and Sukhoi companies will be made, which in the project is called “a single corporate center of aircraft construction”. That is, in fact, the two companies will nevertheless become a single whole. How and how effective all this will be is difficult to judge now.
“The assessments that Sukhoi and MiG will cease to exist are too radical. Yes, the organizational form of legal entities will change, but the brands and people who make these brands will not disappear anywhere. "- so said in the KLA in response to a question from several media outlets.
That is, in fact, there will be the abolition of companies that developed and produced aircraft as independent structures and their unification under some third organizational structure.
And, quite possibly, under other owners ...
But the saddest thing is not that Sukhoi and MiG will be turned into a single structure, although this initially looks dubious. As they say, this is not so bad.
The trouble is that, according to available information, this "center" will also manage such companies as Tupolev, Ilyushin and Irkut. And in Moscow some kind of unified design center will be created, which will bring together engineers from all companies.
In general, this already looks completely surreal. "Sukhoi" and "MiG", which were engaged in fighters and attack aircraft, "Ilyushin", which built passenger and transport aircraft, "Tupolev" with its bombers and "Irkut", which, in principle, "Yakovlev", who built everything in a row - and in one heap ...
In general, the beginning of all this was laid in 2006, when, in fact, the UAC was invented. All more or less significant developers and manufacturers were pushed into the corporation, as a result of which we have problems with many positions in aviation. Why was all this done? Perhaps in order to transfer all the shares of UAC to Rostec.
In fact, only with the release of Su fighter-bombers and MiG fighters is more or less decent. Transport, civil, special aviation - problem on problem.
Now everything will be dumped into one huge cauldron, in which everything will be cooked ...
Moreover, the process can take on a variety of forms. For example, we discussed one of the reform concepts, when it was actually supposed to transfer design bureaus and the management of aircraft manufacturers from Moscow to production sites. And the vacated areas (including in the central part of Moscow) could be realized and thereby pay off part of the UAC's debts to the state and banks.
The idea received wide publicity thanks to the aviation specialists, who for some reason were not eager to move from Moscow to Komsomolsk-on-Amur or Novosibirsk.
In one of the latest official statements of Rostec, it was noted that the design bureaus would not seem to be relocated from Moscow, since “the Center will be located in Moscow, where the existing test and bench infrastructure of the UAC is concentrated. Moving aviation design bureaus to other regions is not on the agenda. "
You can believe this, but it is difficult. All the same, it turns out that the design bureaus will be moved somewhere under one roof. It is known that in this country one crossing is equal to two fires. It is difficult to calculate how much equipment will be simply destroyed when moving, how many other losses there will be. And what will happen to those test benches that were mounted "for non-handling" a long time ago, in Soviet times, when the very idea of moving the same Sukhoi Design Bureau would have looked either stupidity or sabotage.
Of course, it's not bad that the design bureaus will remain in Moscow. At least specialists will remain. With regard to the idea of dragging everything under one roof, here we can say that we will "see", however, modern reforms in the space industry have led to its paralysis as such. The helicopter industry is also experiencing a decline, and these are links in the same chain.
In the previous article on this topic, I started from Serdyukov's statement from August last year, in which he spoke about more than half a billion debt of the UAC to banks. Yes, capitalization, restructuring and all that. And on the sly - reform with the subsequent sale of "all that is superfluous." Modeled on how Serdyukov famously cleaned up the "extra" northern airfields.
So it is not the very idea of reform that is questionable. The methods are questionable, and most importantly - the people who will be engaged in this reform.
Consolidation reform is not necessarily a bad thing. If you look at history, then at one time in France there was a total monopolization of the aviation sector. Yes, difficulties did happen, but they were caused by several other reasons than the seizure of a heap of private aviation firms by the state and bringing them together into several large ones.
America is also a good example of this, because it is worth looking at how many firms, taken over and bought, formed the same Boeing or Northrop Grumman.
The whole question is solely how to reform everything. If reformers want to get an aviation complex on a national scale as a result, that is one thing. If you make money for yourself personally, then something completely different.
In general, there are no attempts to reform the Russian aircraft industry; most likely, there is nothing so sad. It is enough to look at how much time, for example, PJSC "Ilyushin" tramples with the Il-112V transport aircraft or the Il-114 passenger aircraft.
Source: fyodor-photo.livejournal.com
In general, at Ilyushin, if you look at it that way, everything looks very sad. All that a huge system, which is supposed to develop and produce airplanes, is capable of, is to modernize and individually produce airplanes created in Soviet times. That is, the Il-76. More "Ilyushin" has nothing to brag about.
Yakovlev, who is Irkut, is doing no better. Left without American components, the MS-21 immediately lost its ability to fly, and it is impossible to say how long it will take to replace it. Simply because, on the one hand, we are reporting about total import substitution, and on the other ...
On the other hand, we have the United Aircraft Corporation, through whose efforts and efforts we fly on airplanes from the USA and Europe.
We have the United Engine Corporation, and it is not the first year that we have been talking about how bad things are with engines, especially for ships and space launch vehicles. And the Su-57 is still not quite a fifth-generation fighter, thanks to the work of the UEC. The engine is still missing.
We have the United Shipbuilding Corporation ... And the forces of this corporation are modernizing the Soviet ships of forty years ago, because we are not able to build new ones.
This begs the question: maybe it's enough to combine something? Until you stay naked and unclothed at all? Another would be to create the United Automotive Corporation and all change to "Li Fans".
Reform is needed. Reform in the aviation industry is badly needed.
This can be seen from the fact that all efforts to create the Su-57, a fifth generation fighter, have so far ended in nothing. There is no plane in the sense in which they want to see it in the Aerospace Forces, because they prefer the Su-35, which is in no way inferior, but mastered and familiar.
This can be seen in the way Putin ordered the Tupolev to stop spending money on the PAK DA and start modernizing the Tu-160. This is exactly the same crane in the sky, to which the titmouse was preferred in the hand.
This can be seen from the fact that everyone is rejecting the Superjet, the aircraft has practically no future. Due to the fact that the future of the "Russian" MS-21-300 (the share of localization is as much as 38%), even with Russian PD-14 engines, is very vague, since the plane still does not fly.
Here the transfer of Sukhoi Civil Aircraft to Irkut is quite a normal move. Perhaps, through the combined efforts of two design bureaus, at least one of the two aircraft will be brought to mind.
In general, of course, the fact that the Sukhoi company, which has never produced or developed large aircraft, was able to handle a passenger aircraft, speaks of remarkable potential. The case when energy is for peaceful purposes ...
But where, then, "Tupolev", "Yakovlev" and "Ilyushin", which were eaten by a hippopotamus on passenger planes, not like a dog? Backroom games? Yes, they say.
And here, perhaps, bringing together all the designers of civil aircraft construction, will be able to provide the country with normal aircraft, and not with bastards from the aviation industry, unable to fly, like their colleagues.
Yes, a stone in the Superjet's garden, whose French engines are downright disgusting and unreliable.
Excuse me, where is the reformed UEC? Where is the normal engine? Ah, PD-14 ... We've heard it for a long time. Long.
There is one more nuance. The cumbersomeness of the system being created cannot but inspire anxiety and apprehension. When Boeing got into trouble, the whole world shook because it was Boeing. Of course, our market is not a global one, but why such experiments?
Divide, civil aircraft - separately, military - separately. As it was in the epigraph, there is no need in one team of Tu-160 and MS-21. Will not take off.
I repeat, reforms are needed in our aviation industry. They are very much needed. They were needed even when the manufacturer of fighters started making a passenger plane without having engines for it. And I did, only this plane is not needed by anyone, because they need an airplane that can fly, and not stand waiting for repairs.
Airplanes generally have to fly. And I am for the fact that Russian planes fly no worse than American and European ones. And better than the Brazilian ones, which is a shame for us.
For this we need to reform the aviation industry - let's reform.
But so that at the end you can see the planes, and not the bank accounts with large numbers of those who will be responsible for the reform.
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