Military Review

The Syrian Knot: Ten Years of Bashar al-Assad's "Arab Spring"

63

Source: iz.ru


Non-obvious reasons


How do they teach historical discipline, each event must have its own reasons. The Syrian war, which celebrated its 15th anniversary on March 10, was predetermined by several factors. One of them was the long-term drought, which affected about 60% of the Syrian territory. According to climatologists, the magnitude of the 2006-2011 drought was unprecedented in the region. It is not known how much global warming can be blamed for this, but the natural disaster has entailed a lot of consequences. In 2011, in the northeastern regions, pastoralists lost up to 85% of the livestock - to one degree or another, this affected almost 800 thousand people. People with no means of livelihood set out to seek a better life in cities - primarily Damascus and Aleppo. In addition to this, refugees from Iraq have settled in the cities of Syria. All this seriously raised the degree of tension, which could not become one of the reasons for dissatisfaction with the authorities.

Ten years ago, the Assad regime was a very controversial state institution. On the one hand, the standard of living was higher than in Egypt and Tunisia - in 2010, per capita GDP reached $ 4,8 thousand. Each year, GDP grew by 2-2,3% (comparable to Israel and Kuwait), and the unemployment rate ranged from 20 to 30%. For comparison: in Tunisia, unemployment among citizens under the age of 30 reached 50%. And 20% of the unemployed at the same time were in quite prosperous Spain. Education was not bad either. Literate citizens over 15 years old were 86% among men and 73% among women. On the other hand, Bashar al-Assad pursued a poorly thought-out domestic policy. From 1963 to 2011, a state of emergency was in force in Syria, prohibiting political actions and rallies. Frightened by the prospect of violent coups in neighboring Arab countries, the government has also severely curtailed free speech on the Internet. When buying a SIM card, not only a passport, but also the owner's fingerprints were required. The owners of the Internet cafes were obliged to keep the entire history of browsers and detailed customer data. The military intelligence of Syria, or Mukhabarat, kept almost every citizen under control.


Source: pbs.twimg.com

Another reason for the dissatisfaction of part of the population was the Alawite minority, which occupied almost all government posts in Syria. For half a century of power, the levers of governing the country have fallen into the hands of a few clans, often linked by corruption schemes and abuses. At the same time, Bashar al-Assad was wary of allowing the Sunni majority (up to 75% of the population) to come to power. At the time of the outbreak of unrest, Assad did not even want to think about liberal reforms. In the early 2000s, the young leader of the country already had a negative experience of liberalizing the economy and public life, known as the "Syrian Spring." However, attempts to stimulate the market economy led to the acceleration of inflation, stratification of society and an increase in unemployment. Under the conditions of liberalization, the intelligentsia demanded new democratic freedoms, and previously banned parties and associations, such as the Muslim Brotherhood, the National Renaissance Party and the Syrian Reform Party, became active abroad. They demanded free elections and changes in the Syrian constitution. Assad judged that the further development of the "Syrian spring" is more expensive for himself and turned away from sin much of the liberal reforms.

All this spectrum of problems and factors eventually led to the first massive anti-government protest on March 15, 2011. About two hundred protesters, despite the ban on rallies, demanded the resignation of Bashar al-Assad and political reforms. The further fate of the national leader was unambiguously hinted at by the rebels' graffiti “Your turn, doctor”. An ophthalmologist by training, Assad was supposed to join the list of the disgraced leaders of Tunisia and Egypt, and in extreme cases repeat the outcome of Muammar Gaddafi. As history shows, the protesters did not have enough for a decade.

"Struggle for Democracy"


At first, Damascus feared tough measures against the rebels. Largely because of the hope for a peaceful settlement, as well as fear of teasing NATO, which recently famously cracked down on the Libyan leader. And in response to the demands of the streets, concessions were made. On March 29, 2011, the Syrian government was dismissed. On April 20, the state of emergency was lifted, that is, the protesters were officially allowed to hold rallies. The Kurds were given Syrian citizenship (before that they were "foreigners"), and everyone else was promised liberal reforms.

But on April 21, General Abo al-Tellawi with two sons was killed in Homs. The disfigured corpses were cut into pieces. The same fate befell General Iyad Harfush and his three children. For some reason, the liberal West turned a deaf ear to this blatant terrorist act. Instead, in early May, the first European sanctions were introduced against Damascus, targeting those involved in the suppression of the protest. Throughout the country, the protest movement was gaining strength, the authorities did not have time to stop it, and on both sides weapon... Over time, the police forces ceased to cope, the regular army had to intervene, and a full-fledged civil war broke out in Syria.

By July 2011, the notorious Syrian Free Army appeared, receiving weapons both from military warehouses in the country and through foreign supply channels. Subsequently, the war was aggravated by foreign intervention and led to a large-scale humanitarian catastrophe. Officially, Assad recruited Lebanese Hezbollah, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, pro-Iranian militants from Yemen, the Mahdi Army from Iraq, and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine to suppress the irreconcilable opposition. This did not help much - in 2013, only one fifth of the territory was under the control of Damascus. Russia was able to turn the tide, but the United States and Turkey got involved in pulling Syria apart piece by piece. As a result, it is now an international conflict with non-zero prospects for a transition to a global crisis.

The $ 400 Billion Status Quo


For various reasons, the war claimed up to half a million lives of the Syrians. The UN estimated that 5,6 million people left the country during the war, and another 6,6 million became refugees inside Syria. Of the 18 million population, 13,6 million are in need of humanitarian assistance, and 90% live below the poverty line. The Syrian government estimates that it will take up to $ 400 billion to rebuild the devastated country. Where to get at least part of the amount, there is no clarity. Particular difficulties brought the Syrians in 2020 "covid" year and the economic crisis in neighboring Lebanon, with which Syria traditionally has close economic ties. The national currency has depreciated rapidly, and now the average salary of a Syrian of $ 24 is not enough for the minimum monthly grocery package. Western accountants have calculated that the average Syrian needs at least $ 300 a month to live a decent life. That is, there is a multiple discrepancy between opportunities and needs.


Source: ria.ru

Bashar al-Assad himself also needs help, completely dependent on the will of several states - Russia, Iran, Turkey and the United States. Official Damascus does not control up to 85% of Syria's land border. The country is divided into four parts: the northwest is ruled by rebels with ties to Turkey; in the northeast, on the left bank of the Euphrates, lands under the control of the Kurds; militants "Mugavir al-Saura" and, finally, the center of Syria with the southwestern part under the jurisdiction of Damascus are based around the US-occupied Al-Tanf. It is worth noting that most of the oil-bearing provinces are under the control of either the Kurds or the Americans. Yes, and the liberated territory is controlled by Assad very conditionally - in the desert areas, the ISIS and the like, banned in the Russian Federation, have not yet been completely destroyed.

Despite the absence of full-scale hostilities in Syria, it is still too early to talk about the end of the ten-year war - daily reports on local clashes confirm this. In the north of Syria, the Idlib hot spot is constantly smoldering, and the terrorists who have not been killed in the east are ready to take advantage of the weakness of any of the players in the conflict and provoke a new exacerbation.

The views on the further post-war future of Syria naturally differ between Russia and the Western countries. Assad's opponents predict decades of devastation or freezing of the current state of the country. The opposition Syria Report writes in this regard from Beirut:

"The outlook for Syria is bleak, the economic situation is getting worse, it is unlikely that anything will change at the international level, and only international players can decide something."

The West regards Russia as a winner in Syria, but further prospects in the region are seen as vague. To what extent will Assad be obedient? Will he remain loyal when the Gulf oil monarchs are more sympathetic to him? Or when the Arab League softens and returns Syria, expelled in 2011, into its ranks? Meanwhile, Russia has high hopes for a new constitution and elections due in May-June of this year. They promise to hold the vote as open as possible, but now the EU plans to declare the elections illegitimate in advance. A new round of Syrian uncertainty is getting closer.
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  1. Monster_Fat
    Monster_Fat 20 March 2021 04: 43
    +9
    A small, cunning state mainly had a hand in unleashing the Civil War in Syria. The collapse of the anti-Israeli "belt" of the Arabs, the creation of more or less large states of disparate, warring Bantustans among themselves — this is the main task of Israel in the region. Well, in Syria there is also the Golan (Ramat HaGolan), a strategic place in the region that Israel needs to secure for itself. There will be no Syria as a whole state - there is no one in front of whom, there will be an answer to hold.
    1. Stas157
      Stas157 20 March 2021 08: 40
      +3
      ... For half a century of power, the levers of governing the country were in the hands of a few clans, often interconnected corruption and abuse

      How surprisingly it reminds our country. Only with us another thirty years have passed.

      And for these, Russia has been fighting for six years somewhere on the distant approaches! But one honest leader promised us that the Syrian operation would be completed as soon as possible.
      It seems that his promises should always be understood on the contrary.
      1. Karabin
        Karabin 20 March 2021 12: 24
        +9
        Quote: Stas157
        And for these, Russia has been fighting for six years somewhere on the distant approaches!

        At the same time, it is always in the "house" when respected American and Israeli partners are shitting missiles on respected Syrian and Iranian allies.
        Quote: Stas157
        one honest leader promised us that the Syrian operation would be completed as soon as possible.

        So he kept his word. Victory has been repeatedly declared. And the number of short foreseeable terms was not specified. Now comes the next one. wink
        1. Stas157
          Stas157 20 March 2021 12: 56
          +3
          Quote: Karabin
          So he kept his word. Victory has been repeatedly declared.

          Obviously, this is precisely why this strange victory was declared (repeatedly) in a still belligerent country, half occupied by various invaders.

          Putin is a formalist. Where it does not work out, it absurdly pretends that the job is done. As if only he had eyes! Although, looking at the crowd of confused believers, it seems that they are definitely blind. It is only thanks to these brethren that the king succeeds: to have a reputation, but not to be. But, this is temporary. While sitting on the throne.
    2. Krasnodar
      Krasnodar 20 March 2021 09: 03
      -1
      Quote: Monster_Fat
      A small, cunning state mainly had a hand in unleashing the Civil War in Syria. The collapse of the anti-Israeli "belt" of the Arabs, the creation of more or less large states of disparate, warring Bantustans among themselves — this is the main task of Israel in the region. Well, in Syria there is also the Golan (Ramat HaGolan), a strategic place in the region that Israel needs to secure for itself. There will be no Syria as a whole state - there is no one in front of whom, there will be an answer to hold.

      Basically, two factors played their part - the Arab spring and the very "honest" privatization carried out by Bashar al-Assad.
      1. SovAr238A
        SovAr238A 20 March 2021 11: 04
        +9
        Quote: Krasnodar

        Basically, two factors played their part - the Arab spring and the very "honest" privatization carried out by Bashar al-Assad.

        You forgot to write the most important factor - Qatar with its gas pipeline to Europe.
        Russia convinced Assad to refuse Qatar to build this gas pipeline across Syria, to which Qatar was offended and, in fact, completely destroyed the Syrian state.
        Not privatization, not the "Arab spring" - but only the huge money of small and disgusting Qatar.
        I don’t understand, but why, after the beating of the Russian ambassador in Qatar (he lost his sight after that), they didn’t liquidate any Qatari ambassador ...
        And they beat him precisely because of the Russian position on the Syrian issue.
        1. dSK
          dSK 20 March 2021 12: 05
          -3
          Quote: SovAr238A
          the main factor is Qatar with its gas pipeline to Europe.

          A gas pipeline from Qatar through Syria cannot go to Europe. All existing gas pipelines pass through Turkey - from Azerbaijan and even from Russia. Perspective from Iran is the same ...
          1. SovAr238A
            SovAr238A 20 March 2021 12: 13
            +7
            Quote: dsk
            Quote: SovAr238A
            the main factor is Qatar with its gas pipeline to Europe.

            A gas pipeline from Qatar through Syria cannot go to Europe. All existing gas pipelines pass through Turkey - from Azerbaijan and even from Russia. Perspective from Iran is the same ...


            Teach materiel a little more
            And look at the plan for the placement of the Qatar-Turkish gas pipeline.


            Qatar Project 2000.
            Assad's rejection in 2009.
            And it was after this that they began to "kill" Assad ...
            According to former French Foreign Minister Roland Dumas, Britain was planning a covert operation in Syria back in 2009: “I was in England two years before the violence in Syria on other matters,” he told French television:
            “I met with high-ranking British officials who admitted to me that something is being prepared in Syria. It was in the UK, not America. Great Britain trained militants for the invasion of Syria. "
            The 2011 uprisings, fueled by the confluence of domestic energy shortages and a climate-induced drought that led to a massive spike in food prices, seemed to come at an opportune moment that was quickly exploited. Leaked emails from the private intelligence company Stratfor, including recordings of a meeting with Pentagon officials, have confirmed that since 2011, US-British exercises by Syrian opposition forces are aimed at the "collapse" of the Assad regime "from within."
            1. Krasnodar
              Krasnodar 20 March 2021 14: 16
              +8
              As a sponsor of all kinds of bullshit, Qatar has long been known. From the analytics I read: Bashar decided to get off the socialist rails and did the following:
              1) Privatized banks and cellular communications in favor of the relatives of the wife and those close to him (the Makhluf family and others);
              2) Deprived of state support for agricultural enterprises, which traveled out due to state support during the drought years.
              As a result of the first step, there were more secular Syrians who were dissatisfied with him in a hurry.
              As a result of the second step, the peasants:
              a) rushed to cities to earn money, which led to the Islamization of urbanized settlements;
              b) instead of state support, uncles with beards and money came to help those in need according to the Islamic canons of Zakiyat (charity), which led to the popularity of religious organizations among Sunni Muslims in general.
              The Arab Spring became the fuse that swept away all the corrupt secular Arab regimes in the BW. Here, of course, Qatar's role is enormous. The question is whether it is paramount. hi
              1. aleksejkabanets
                aleksejkabanets 20 March 2021 16: 04
                +1
                hi
                Quote: Krasnodar
                Here, of course, Qatar's role is enormous. The question is whether it is paramount.

                Definitely not paramount. The paramount importance is corruption, corruption and a general inability to adapt to the new conditions of the ruling regimes in the BW.
                1. Krasnodar
                  Krasnodar 20 March 2021 19: 05
                  +2
                  Greetings! hi
                  Exactly
              2. aslanismaili611
                aslanismaili611 April 3 2021 10: 23
                0
                Greetings colleague. The point is clear. It remains only to find out what channels "small and vile" Qatar sponsored the Syrian Air Force and the Aerospace Forces of one large country.
            2. Paragraph Epitafievich Y.
              Paragraph Epitafievich Y. 21 March 2021 13: 34
              -4
              Quote: SovAr238A
              Qatar Project 2000.
              Assad's rejection in 2009.
              And it was after this that they began to "kill" Assad ...

              A popular philistine version at the conspiracy level. All "sources close to ..." are muttering about some kind of "Qatar's proposal" in 2000, to which Assad allegedly refused already in 2009 (!!) year. Is an ophthalmologist such a natural brake? Or an ardent Russophile and Putinist? Or a shareholder of Gazprom? Moreover, Assad himself, like, in an interview with Simonyanovskie magazines with RT and other Russian media denies everything - there was neither a proposal from Doha, nor, accordingly, his "nope ...". There is a clear smirk of all-knowing conspiracy theorists a'la "well, we know ...". Let's, they say, "soak" the intractable Assad with the method of "color" turmoil in order to pull the main expensive gas pipeline to Europe through the territory covered by an endless war in order to move Gazprom? Are you fucking serious? The guys in burnuses, of course, dress funny, but they are not idiots to start such an event. Moreover, the European market is not their priority. And they have long been aware of the LNG trend. These $ 10bn, which the mythical pipe allegedly "cost", they have already invested in shipbuilding in Korea and China. Yes, Qatar still has the largest fleet of LNG tankers in terms of one-time tonnage - more than 12 million cubic meters.
              Well, why the hell is Qatar to "wet" someone and pull some pipes ??
              And with regards to the drawing - this is the same fantasy crap, like the gas pipeline from Russia through the Himalayas to India and other coloring. You can draw anything.
        2. matross
          matross 20 March 2021 14: 24
          +1
          Quote: SovAr238A
          I don’t understand, but why, after the beating of the Russian ambassador in Qatar (he lost his sight after that), they didn’t liquidate any Qatari ambassador ...
          And they beat him precisely because of the Russian position on the Syrian issue.

          What is this episode? When was it? More details? I haven't really heard of this ... request
    3. Karabin
      Karabin 20 March 2021 12: 09
      +4
      Quote: Monster_Fat
      a small, cunning state had a hand in it.

      And when and where was it different? The stronger always put his hand to the weaker, solving his problems. The victor then writes the history books, and the defeated cries out for injustice and morality.
      1. dSK
        dSK 20 March 2021 12: 24
        +4
        North Korea and South Korea have been separated for 70 years. Sudan has split up completely.
        The author is right; sooner or later, Syria will also be partitioned.
        Russia in 1905 lost the Kuril Islands and half of Sakhalin, but received peace with Japan for 40 years and "the absence of a second eastern front" in the Second World War. Syria should have the same not to resist because of the Golan Heights and conclude a peace treaty with Israel ...
    4. Bolt cutter
      Bolt cutter 20 March 2021 13: 12
      +3
      a small, cunning state had a hand in it.

      perennial drought, which affected about 60% of the Syrian territory
      Did you drink all the water not only at the tap?
      1. Krasnodar
        Krasnodar 20 March 2021 14: 17
        +4
        Quote: Bolt Cutter
        a small, cunning state had a hand in it.

        perennial drought, which affected about 60% of the Syrian territory
        Did you drink all the water not only at the tap?

        The whole matzo was gnawed
        1. Bolt cutter
          Bolt cutter 20 March 2021 14: 24
          +1
          I can't even imagine what they did with hummus lol And the special mission of the Mossad to bite the entrances in Syria failed - they could not find a place that was no longer fouled by the CIA belay
          But seriously, it is at least incorrect to compare Syria with Spain.
          1. Krasnodar
            Krasnodar 20 March 2021 14: 58
            +5
            Quote: Bolt Cutter

            But seriously, it is at least incorrect to compare Syria with Spain.

            Did you mean with Israel? hi
            In principle, yes, but there is a place for historical comparison.
            Syria gained de facto independence in 1946, Israel in 1948. Until 1917, both territories were under the Turks, after WWII, the infrastructure of Palestine was built by the Britons, Syria - by the French.
            Both countries have been at war since 1948 (launched by the Arab League against Israel), spending a significant part of the budget on defense.
            The results are, of course, different, but expected:
            Israel was built by the Eastern European socialists, whose followers were pushed away from power in the late 70s by winning the elections of market-oriented and liberal-oriented political forces;
            In Syria, up to the beginning of the 70s, there was a series of military coups - anti-colonial National Socialists were replaced by pan-Arabists, then pro-Soviet-oriented Baathists, who were in contradiction with the more pro-Western Iraqi Baathists. Up to the noughties - a socialist society.
            Scientific and technical base - German Jews refugees, incl. luminaries of the world scale, built universities and hospitals, some of the latter contained shaves.
            Syria was much worse with this case.
            Ethnic composition is the backbone of Israel, de facto Europeans.
            The composition of Syria is a hodgepodge of the peoples of the Middle East and Western Asia with a corresponding mentality.
            The result is logical.
            1. Bolt cutter
              Bolt cutter 20 March 2021 15: 10
              +1
              And 20% of the unemployed at the same time were in quite prosperous Spain
              I mean it. With Israel, somewhat appropriate, very unsightly conclusions about the mentality and statehood of the Arabs appear. For all the time of independence, they could create at least an average European economy in terms of indicators. And the spirit was enough for the Central African. And so everywhere among the Arabs. The exceptions in the Gulf are due to the colossal resources and the purchase of foreign specialists in all areas. And despite studying at the best universities in the West (and East), they themselves were not capable of anything.
              Up to the noughties - a socialist society.
              Socialism is good when the state can afford it.
              1. Krasnodar
                Krasnodar 20 March 2021 15: 35
                +2
                Thus, only the Turks and Jews were able to build a more or less intelligible economy in the BV and Asia Minor.
                Socialism - yes, an expensive pleasure laughing
                1. Bolt cutter
                  Bolt cutter 20 March 2021 15: 44
                  +1
                  Lebanon looked good before it got involved in the conflict. The Turks moderated their religious zeal, the Bolmen integrated with Europe, and voila! True, now Europe is being blackmailed, and they are starting to become a religion again ... Let's see how it ends. Jews are an exception, as always smile
                  Socialism - yes, an expensive pleasure
                  And surely Assad did not know what happens (or rather, comes am ) if you live beyond your means? Like nivirsetet finished?
                  1. Krasnodar
                    Krasnodar 20 March 2021 16: 04
                    +1
                    Lebanon - was conceived by the French as a state of Christian Arabs. These are very talented (Klyanu Reeves, Shakira, others) and successful people, some of whom are on the Forbes lists.
                    Gagged in the ass thanks mainly to Syrian intervention.

                    Assad dad? He was not particularly interested in this, the sponsor was the Union, the post took action. Bashar tried to get out, but this is how it happened ..
                    1. Bolt cutter
                      Bolt cutter 20 March 2021 16: 14
                      0
                      He was not particularly interested in this, the sponsor was the Union
                      Yes, the collapse of the Union was really a catastrophe - even now it reverberates.
                      Arab Christian state
                      It seems that initially the state-forming people there were supposed to be the Phoenicians, not the Arabs (who are Carthage). Then refugees came running, who were wisely and nobly sheltered sad ... And then it got really fun. Something like this?
                      1. dSK
                        dSK 20 March 2021 17: 01
                        +1
                        Quote: Bolt Cutter
                        Phoenicians
                        Lebanon and was called before Phenicia, a Middle East trade crossroads ...
                      2. Krasnodar
                        Krasnodar 20 March 2021 19: 18
                        +3
                        Lebanon?
                        The Phoenicians adopted Christianity, then, as a result of the ethnocide of the conquerors from Jazira, which took place in the 7-8 centuries. AD, aoabized, but lived in communities, gravitated towards Europe, preserving their uniqueness in the BV.
                        Lebanon's problems began in the 70s. Arafat's guys tried to overthrow the King of Jordan, who in response began to cut them out. Detachments of armed Palestinians were forced to flee to Syria, which was not going to keep armed foreigners, finding nothing better than transferring them to Lebanon.
                        The militants came there with weapons, seeing the weakness of the Lebanese army and the high prosperity of the locals, they decided to earn extra money by setting up roadblocks and knocking down the money for the "cause of the Palestinian revolution."
                        Christians were also not suckers, and began to resist. The civil war began - the Palestinians were supported by the Lebanese Sunnis, part of the Shiites, Armenians, Syrians, Druze and Nazis.
                        Christians - Shiites from southern Lebanon, Israelis and French (the latter - morally and financially).
                        As a result, Lebanon has turned from the pearl of the Middle East into its ass.
                      3. Bolt cutter
                        Bolt cutter 20 March 2021 23: 31
                        0
                        Druze and Nazis
                        Armenians
                        How did they win the Audience Award among these groups?
                      4. Krasnodar
                        Krasnodar 20 March 2021 23: 42
                        +5
                        Druze - according to their religion, they are forbidden to have their own state, they are obliged to defend the country in which they live. But in the civil war, the interests of one's own community come to the fore, which means that they coincided with the Sunni and Syrian ones.
                        The Nazis are the SSNP party. They see themselves as Syrians, the Lebanese self-identity of Christians is not to their liking, it goes against all their beliefs.
                        Armenians - created a militant anti-Turkish organization Asal, calling to put pressure on the Turks with sabotage methods (they killed diplomats, attacked their families) for the recognition of the genocide, the return of the lands of Western Armenia and their further annexation to the Armenian SSR as part of the Soviet Union. Trained at the bases of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, respectively, during the civil war, they took their side.
                      5. Bolt cutter
                        Bolt cutter 20 March 2021 23: 50
                        +1
                        Yes, with such a menagerie on board, the voyage could not last long sad An acquaintance told me that his father installed armor shutters on the windows in their apartment in Beirut. And then they went to England.
                        the return of the lands of Western Armenia and their further annexation to the Armenian SSR as part of the Soviet Union
                        Sicilists chtol wassat ? Then (after the victory) were you planning to move to the Armenian SSR?
                        You have such a madhouse on BV that you can't get enough of haloperidol.
                      6. Krasnodar
                        Krasnodar 21 March 2021 01: 34
                        +3
                        We went to England - we did the right thing.
                        How crazy is it? Lebanese Armenians were largely descendants of people who were forcibly resettled by the Turks or who fled from the territory of the Ottoman Empire during the tragic events of 1915. What was going on in their heads is incomprehensible, but I would not condemn - their ancestors have gone through a lot, suffered, listening to such stories without consequences, of course, did not pass. request
  • Cowbra
    Cowbra 20 March 2021 05: 30
    +6
    The dead end is that the current situation is bad for everyone, but acceptable. Options for reconciliation will be given to everyone, except for the actual population of Syria.
    * USA. You can’t leave, you can’t leave Assad, they themselves have thrown themselves into slogans. You can't win either.
    * Russia. Peace means that Assad, who, by the way, is a protege of the West, yes, Russia will not be needed right away. The author correctly mentioned - he will immediately run to bow to the Saudis, and maybe to the EU.
    * Turkey. The Kurds have no options here. Erdogan, in general, that he got there - he is in zugzwang - any move only worsens his position. The only acceptable way out for him is the total extermination of the Kurds, which is impossible.
    * Iran - the world is not interesting from the word at all. More or less legitimate pressure on everyone who interferes in the region. Again, the oil-bearing competitor has been deleted.
    Israel - and where is the small, victorious news if not against the destroyed Syria? If there is peace, it will be more difficult to bomb the real threat from Iran.
    Peace is interesting to China, but for this it is necessary to get into Syria. The cons outweigh the pros
    1. Asad
      Asad 20 March 2021 06: 30
      +4
      I agree with you, no one but the Syrian people needs peace.
    2. Korsar4
      Korsar4 20 March 2021 06: 50
      +5
      In fact, the division into parts has already taken place.
      No prosperity can be expected without oil in Gyor az Zor.
      I am sincerely sorry for the Syrians.
      1. Hunter 2
        Hunter 2 20 March 2021 06: 55
        +4
        Quote: Korsar4
        In fact, the division into parts has already taken place.
        No prosperity can be expected without oil in Gyor az Zor.
        I am sincerely sorry for the Syrians.

        Sergei, in fact, the oil issue can be resolved by creating an "international" consortium ... Everyone needs money!
        And any War without money, sooner or later ends, well, if only the belligerents on sticks and stones do not go over.
        1. Korsar4
          Korsar4 20 March 2021 07: 02
          +2
          Yes. It's still a long way to a hundred
          The question is how the political map will be painted next time. And how people will live.
          1. Fan-fan
            Fan-fan 20 March 2021 12: 47
            +1
            The operation in Syria costs the Ministry of Defense at least $ 2,5 million daily, according to the calculations of RBC. That's almost a billion a year. It's nothing compared to the Russian defense budget of about $ 50 billion. So we can fight there for a long time.

            Read more at RBC:
            https://www.rbc.ru/investigation/politics/28/10/2015/562f9e119a79471d5d7c64e7
    3. Sergey M. Karasev
      Sergey M. Karasev 20 March 2021 07: 16
      +10
      Peace means that Assad, who, by the way, is a protege of the West, yes, Russia will not be needed right away. The author correctly mentioned - he will immediately run to bow to the Saudis, and maybe to the EU.

      And who immediately prevented him from running there? Maybe the realization that no one needs him there for nothing and he will quickly receive a personal paragraph as soon as he bends over to the Saudis and the West? Didn't 10 years of war show him who hu is? Why would Assad trust them?
    4. Kronos
      Kronos 20 March 2021 10: 02
      -1
      Israel is not straining to bomb the Iranians whenever it wants.
  • Reptiloid
    Reptiloid 20 March 2021 07: 26
    +1
    A decade of the Syrian civil war ...
    Indeed, it was in 2011 that the "Arab Spring" began. It was considered at first --- everything spontaneously. What happened with Libya, with other countries. During these 10 years, how many Arabs and Africans have moved to Europe. The world has changed. Now it is clear that there is a manual and there is a war for the sake of resources.
  • samarin1969
    samarin1969 20 March 2021 07: 49
    +10
    The author is too schematic. You cannot raise the population of the East for "freedom" and "liberal reforms". These are not the reasons for the Arab Spring. For several thousand years Eastern despotism has shaped the psychology of Eastern people. But the power of the Alawite minority was unpleasant for many. The "world community" gave the green light to the redistribution of power along confessional and inter-tribal lines. It was then that the East blazed from Tunisia to Yemen! Any rural gangsters and sheikhs received the flag of "rebels" from the media. Robbing and killing is now "UNO-pleasing" occupation.

    ps Events in the Caucasus, the Balkans and Ukraine are not very different. Everyone is for "freedom", but only for "friends"!
  • krops777
    krops777 20 March 2021 08: 17
    0
    From 1963 to 2011, a state of emergency was in force in Syria, prohibiting political actions and rallies. Frightened by the prospect of violent coups in neighboring Arab countries, the government has also severely curtailed free speech on the Internet. When buying a SIM card, not only a passport, but also the owner's fingerprints were required. The owners of the Internet cafes were obliged to keep the entire history of browsers and detailed customer data. The military intelligence of Syria, or Mukhabarat, kept almost every citizen under control.



    Assad acted as he was taught and acted like a normal Arab leader, in my opinion, is correct, otherwise it is impossible in the Arab world. In one thing, he was mistaken, that he did not arm himself to the teeth as Iran did and gave the slack to liberalism.
    1. bk0010
      bk0010 20 March 2021 09: 47
      +4
      Quote: krops777
      In one thing he was mistaken, that he did not arm himself to the teeth as Iran did and gave the slack to liberalism.
      This ISIS has become more liberal?
      1. nov_tech.vrn
        nov_tech.vrn 20 March 2021 11: 45
        +4
        in the early 90s, our tn democrats Novodvorskaya, Sobchak and Co. invented the term "democratic Islamists" this is from the same series, they also appeared in Western sponsors
      2. krops777
        krops777 20 March 2021 11: 56
        +1
        This ISIS has become more liberal?


        Is not it so? Radical Islam mixed with the goals pursued by the United States and Israel is worse for you than any liberalism.
        1. bk0010
          bk0010 20 March 2021 12: 44
          0
          Quote: krops777
          Is not it so?
          Of course not. Living according to Sharia law and fighting the states is not a liberal dream. They are antagonists.
    2. Kronos
      Kronos 20 March 2021 10: 03
      +2
      Iran is a theocratic and tyrannical regime.
      1. krops777
        krops777 20 March 2021 12: 00
        +2
        Iran is a theocratic and tyrannical regime.


        As well as the UAE, Pakistan and, until recently, Iraq and Libya.
        1. Krasnodar
          Krasnodar 20 March 2021 14: 25
          0
          The UAE is not a theocracy. Pakistan is not a tyranny or a theocracy. Iraq - Saddam was a secular state. Libya too.
          1. K150
            K150 23 March 2021 16: 02
            -1
            Quote: Krasnodar
            The UAE is not a theocracy. Pakistan is not a tyranny or a theocracy. Iraq - Saddam was a secular state. Libya too.

            Was Saddam's Iraq secular? Another myth and tale. He completely cleared the country of the socialists, and after the defeat in the Iran-Iraq war, he fell into a terrible Islamization. And by the way, he was an amerskoy mongrel and wiped off next to them.
            1. Krasnodar
              Krasnodar 23 March 2021 17: 02
              +2
              What kind of Islamist? )) He was a Baathist - an Arab socialist
  • nov_tech.vrn
    nov_tech.vrn 20 March 2021 10: 04
    +2
    Many words, many numbers, and the reason is not only not disclosed, but perverted. The real reasons, such as the opportunity to use the territory of Syria for the transit of hydrocarbons, here money was invested by a small but rich state, the process of destruction of stable Arab regimes is large and rich because of a puddle, and the struggle for influence in the region with the state of the chosen people is not indicated. In general, these processes, along with internal contradictions, were supposed to sweep away the Syrian statehood like a feather, but Assad found allies on the principle of the enemy of my enemy, my friend.
  • faterdom
    faterdom 20 March 2021 10: 37
    -2
    Quote: Cowbra
    * Russia. Peace means that Assad, who, by the way, is a protege of the West, yes, Russia will not be needed right away. The author correctly mentioned - he will immediately run to bow to the Saudis, and maybe to the EU.

    Russia has become a factor against which all the plans of the "hegemons" have crashed, which cannot be bypassed (there were proposals to introduce "bespontov space"), it is impossible to deny, and even slandering with the help of all kinds of "observatories" and pale hats did not work out very well ...
    But what Russia is interested in continuing the war in Syria is nonsense.
    Well, apart from technical details, such as running in officers and specialists, testing and improving weapon systems - this is such a side effect of any war, not only this one, and for the sake of this, no one drags the war on our part.
    Just taking into account our capabilities and the capabilities of "partners" - for us this task is as unsolvable at the moment as it is for them.
    Only now time is working against them - the United States has lost the status of an unconditional hegemon, and will not return it, no matter how much it stuck out in Syria and Iraq.
    European countries will now be able to regain their influence in Syria at least to some extent if they provide assistance in reconstruction.
    Iran ... since 1978, its paths have parted ways with the chief executives, and they "cannot eat" - all these years they have been preparing to finally punish him. But Iran is becoming stronger and more influential, and no one doubts that it will become a nuclear power.
    Turkey - in my opinion, she is in a wild tension of scissors between Wishlist and real possibilities, how it will end - I will not say, only she cannot win on all boards at the same time - this is a fact.
    Israel ... in the event of further degradation, the United States risks being left alone with the problems that the large Middle East offers every day and every minute, as a guarantee a new patron will be needed, and with certain reservations, but Russia is best suited for this role.
    Arab countries ... A lot of interesting things await them, but they will never be as good as they were, or did they think that the stirring up of Iraq, Egypt and Syria with Yemen would not backfire on them? Or will we forget to feed them first to the dushmans in Afghanistan, and then to the Wahhabis in the Caucasus?
    So this is such a tangle of problems, a world in miniature, including certain interests of China in this region and with the same militants.
    1. A. Privalov
      A. Privalov 20 March 2021 11: 57
      -2
      Quote: faterdom
      Israel ... in the event of further degradation, the United States risks being left alone with the problems that the greater Middle East offers every day and every minute,

      Worry less for him, dear. Israel has been living this way for 73 years. With the help of Gd, he will still hold out. By this age, the giant USSR was already standing with one foot in the grave.

      Assad, once already made the mistake of inviting some bandits to fight on his side against others. When he saw that those invited had already begun to bend him down, he ran to Vladimir Vladimirovich to ask for help. At that time Russia really wanted to have a base closer to the Mediterranean Sea, they thought to quickly slip through the war for one thing. Bashar played on this, but there was not a walk, but a real swamp turned out to be ...
      Well, now there is an airfield and ships dock in the port, it would be time to go home. Yes, the war does not end in any way. Losses, both physical, moral and financial, are evident. Five years with a tail, no joke! Dissatisfaction with the situation even here, at VO, sometimes splashes out. They say that people are dying for nothing, like 3 million green pots in a Syrian stove every day, this is, by the way, a billion greenbacks a year, which we ourselves have where to apply ...

      In a word, Assad on Russian bayonets will hold out for some time if he is good. If Iran does not start spreading its fingers on the Russian Federation. If the Sultan will moderate his appetites. If Russia stops the Turks and the Persians - its real military, economic and political opponents thoughtlessly to arm in pursuit of momentary monetary gain. And there are many more "ifs".
      We have already seen what will happen, we will see. hi
      1. Krasnodar
        Krasnodar 20 March 2021 14: 31
        +1
        From what I know, with the Russian Federation, it is somewhat more complicated. According to the results of the 2008 war, it was necessary to test the army units in combat conditions.
      2. dSK
        dSK 20 March 2021 17: 39
        +2
        Gaddafi tried to "be friends" with France, Sarkozy gave money for the elections. He taught his sons there, kept the currency in "reliable" banks. Russia wrote off 14 billion "green" to him, began to build a "translivian" railway. As a result, NATO members robbed the country, Gaddafi and his four sons were killed, and the daughter survived, whom the Algerian Khan took as his wife.
        Obama Assad was also sentenced for "the use of chemical weapons" and if not for Russia, which helped to dispose of him, he would have faced the fate of Gaddafi five years ago.
        Russia will not have any economic "dividends" in Syria, only political and military ones. China now has more overseas military bases than Russia ...
        1. A. Privalov
          A. Privalov 20 March 2021 17: 52
          +1
          Quote: dsk
          Russia will not have any economic "dividends" in Syria, only political and military ones.

          In other words, has the Russian Federation bought itself these dividends for 5 billion dollars and continues to buy for 3 million dollars every day? what
      3. Until Ger
        Until Ger 20 March 2021 19: 46
        -1
        Residents of "one" country.
        They are....
        They always count other people's money. laughing
        Is it in their blood or something ...
      4. Essex62
        Essex62 21 March 2021 10: 12
        0
        It is not clear where such confidence comes from? It is seen if the hegemon bends to the little "God's chosen" people kirdyk. You are, of course, a hefty and cunning warrior, unlike "the destroyers of the USSR, who sawed their bitches, but don't do it. Alone, without the support of world financial Jewry, you will die, the Arabs will digest you.
  • Alsur
    Alsur 20 March 2021 13: 22
    +2
    Quote: Stas157
    ... For half a century of power, the levers of governing the country were in the hands of a few clans, often interconnected corruption and abuse

    How surprisingly it reminds our country. Only with us another thirty years have passed.

    And for these, Russia has been fighting for six years somewhere on the distant approaches! But one honest leader promised us that the Syrian operation would be completed as soon as possible.
    It seems that his promises should always be understood on the contrary.

    Corruption is a tool for US interference in the affairs of other countries, nothing more. Corruption in the United States, taking into account the size of its economy, is many times greater than in Russia and probably an order or two more than in Syria.
    And the fighting in Syria is really over, don't you understand that. But partisan actions continue and will continue, as they were inspired from outside.
  • Alsur
    Alsur 20 March 2021 13: 42
    0
    Another reason for the dissatisfaction of part of the population was the Alawite minority, which occupied almost all government posts in Syria.

    I like this argument. He resonates with many and the United States also leads him. A country that promotes the interests of LGBT people, a small stratum of the population, in every possible way promoting these people to the heights of power, including at the level of legislation, ensuring entry into the management apparatus of large firms, state. organs. But this is different, you have to understand.
  • Revival
    Revival 20 March 2021 13: 58
    -1
    "From 1963 to 2011, a state of emergency was in force in Syria, prohibiting political actions and rallies. Frightened by the prospect of violent coups in neighboring Arab countries, the government also seriously restricted freedom of speech on the Internet. When buying a SIM card, not only a passport, but also fingerprints were required The owners of the Internet cafes were obliged to keep the entire history of browsers and detailed data of the customers.The military intelligence of Syria or Mukhabarat kept almost every citizen under control ...
    Another reason for the dissatisfaction of part of the population was the Alawite minority, which occupied almost all government posts in Syria. For half a century of power, the levers of governing the country were in the hands of a few clans, often linked by corruption schemes and abuses. "

    this is how one immoral type, for the sake of his personal sitting on the throne, without change, repressing his own people, made the country weak and vulnerable to external pressure ...
  • kriten
    kriten 20 March 2021 19: 01
    -1
    A long-term war did not lead to victory. And it won't. You cannot fight terrorists in alliance with their main sponsorsTurkey prepares them faster than Syria, Iran and Russia destroy. Moreover, a semi-treacherous friendship with Israel, bombing our allies ... What a victory here.