The pace of production of J-20 fighters in China is 37 percent behind planned: a version was expressed about the reasons

In China, they are summing up the interim results of the production and operation of their J-20 fighters, which the Chinese themselves refer to as new generation aircraft (4th according to the Chinese classification, 5th according to the international classification). The first flight at that time, the prototype of the J-20 fighter made a little over 10 years ago - in January 2011. Then it was assumed that by 2020 the PLA Air Force will have at least 140-150 such fighters. However, such plans are not being kept up.

According to the Chinese press, the total number of J-20 fighters in the PLA air force is currently 90 units. According to other sources - 75, and another 15 have not yet entered the composition and are being tested.

It is noted that by now the Chinese industry has reached the production rate of about 12-13 J-20 fighters per year. At the same time, the original plans corresponded to about 20 aircraft over the same period of time. Thus, the rates of production of the new generation J-20 fighters in the PRC lag behind the planned ones by an average of 37%.

The manufacturing company - Chengdu Aircraft - does not give official comments on the reasons for such a lag. Against this background, in China itself, a version is being put forward according to which the Chinese Air Force is expecting the appearance of aircraft with new Chinese-made engines in service. Earlier it was reported that these should be modifications of the WS-15 - power plants with a suitable thrust. However, for at least 2-2,5 years, Chinese specialists have been unable to solve the problems that have been identified in these engines, namely, a significant loss of thrust when a certain temperature is reached.

It is assumed that once this problem is resolved, the number of J-20 aircraft produced in China per year will increase significantly. However, forecasts on this score (when suitable engines will be installed en masse on these fighters) are not given. Apparently, there are problems with warranties from the manufacturers themselves. aviation power plants.

Comments

[Anarchist]

A little news on the topic of aircraft construction and our lagging behind world standards.
The Chinese edition "Sohu" writes that our Su-57, which, according to the Americans, does not fit the definition of a fifth-generation aircraft due to the (allegedly) lack of stealth systems, flew into the American zone of responsibility three times without any response from the "partners" ... And it was discovered only due to the termination of silence on the air by the pilot. In fact, he himself said hello to the Americans ...
I mean that ours harnessed for a very, very long time, the last of the 3 superpowers to release a prototype. But now it is the only aircraft of the fifth generation that meets all the inherent characteristics.

[Sidor Amenpodestovich]

Quote: Anarchist

But now it is the only aircraft of the fifth generation that meets all the inherent characteristics.

Strongly support.

[Artyom Karagodin]

Quote: Sidor Amenpodestovich

Strongly support.

We could only start building them at a normal pace now!

[Svarog]

Quote: Anarchist

I mean that ours harnessed for a very, very long time, the last of the 3 superpowers to release a prototype. But now it is the only aircraft of the fifth generation that meets all the inherent characteristics.

Alexander It remains to establish mass production ... not 15 aircraft per year ... but at least 100 each ...

[Doccor18]

Quote: Svarog

It remains to establish mass production ... not 15 aircraft per year ... but at least 100 each ...

What are you? 100 per year ... And how much will there be?
Yes, if only 120-150 of them are built, then it's already good. And 15-20 a year is also quite good. If only the construction went on constantly.

[Svarog]

Quote: Doccor18

Quote: Svarog

It remains to establish mass production ... not 15 aircraft per year ... but at least 100 each ...

What are you? 100 per year ... And how much will there be?
Yes, if only 120-150 of them are built, then it's already good. And 15-20 a year is also quite good. If only the construction went on constantly.

As far as I know, we have about 1800 military aircraft .. 25% can be safely given to the Su57 .. and this is 450 cars .. if we make 15 units each .. it will take 30 years .. and if the war? And then the export potential .. 100 pieces per year, this is a real necessary figure .. in my opinion.

[Doccor18]

If only your words, yes to those in power in the ears ...

450 Su-57 is a lot. It is doubtful, very doubtful that a man-made budget will pull so much.
And export is not so simple. The potential is great, but what will happen in the end. In addition to the fact that the car is expensive, politics will also make adjustments everywhere ...

[Svarog]

Quote: Doccor18

In addition to the fact that the car is expensive, politics will also make adjustments everywhere ...

The larger the series, the lower the cost .. and with new engines, the plane is really the best .. Politics yes .. always makes adjustments .. there should be a toothy one, but to have teeth, you need to produce more ourselves ..

[Doccor18]

Quote: Svarog

Quote: Doccor18

In addition to the fact that the car is expensive, politics will also make adjustments everywhere ...

The larger the series, the lower the cost .. and with new engines, the plane is really the best .. Politics yes .. always makes adjustments .. there should be a toothy one, but to have teeth, you need to produce more ourselves ..

Can not argue. It's like that.
But in order for her to be "toothy", she needs, for a start, to become independent, independent ..

[Svarog]

Quote: Doccor18

But in order for her to be "toothy", she needs, for a start, to become independent, independent ..

And here you can not argue

[Tuzik]

for our territory 450 is a drop in the ocean.

[K150]

Quote: Svarog

Quote: Anarchist

I mean that ours harnessed for a very, very long time, the last of the 3 superpowers to release a prototype. But now it is the only aircraft of the fifth generation that meets all the inherent characteristics.

Alexander It remains to establish mass production ... not 15 aircraft per year ... but at least 100 each ...

Again the nonsense of Svarog. The Chinese do 12-15 a year with their potential, but the pro-American genius wants as many as 100 a year.

[mojohed2012]

I am embarrassed to ask: And from what source is the information about the incident you described with our Su-57 and "partners"? Just wondering, I myself have not seen such information.

[Blackmokona]

And so it is clear that they just invented, all the ways to counter stealth are not only with us.

[Anarchist]

Quote: mojohed2012

I am embarrassed to ask: And from what source is the information about the incident you described with our Su-57 and "partners"?

How careless ...

Quote: Anarchist

The Chinese edition of "Sohu" writes

According to this publication, this happened in Iraq, the plane flew over three of their bases ...

[mvg]

Well, but now it is the only fifth generation aircraft that meets all the inherent characteristics.

Forgot something ... Three-dimensional "Urra-Urra-Urrra .." to shout ... How did our "invincible" plane deserve the title of the best? Radar, avionics, engines, stealth or weapons, which, in your opinion, is at or even higher than that of the Raptor, which has been in development since 86 and made its first flight 20 years ago (serial)

[venik]

Quote: Anarchist

I mean that ours harnessed for a very, very long time, the last of the 3 superpowers to release a prototype.

=======
Not the last (third), but the second! Chengdu J-20 made its maiden flight almost exactly one year later than T-10 (Su-57) !.

[svp67]

Hmm, I'm not too worried about the "Chinese printer", it is capable of showing high performance, I'm more worried about our quantitative lag in equipping our videoconferencing systems with such an aircraft and the complete absence of its "light" version

[NDR-791]

Eh, we would have such an insufficient pace ... It would not hurt at all.

[antivirus]

there are other factories and types of machines in service.

many times I received minuses for upsetting and mocking such - give us 2 checkers in each hand and 2 horses. and the opa for sitting in the saddle is still one.

[Thrifty]

The Chinese still cannot understand that not everything can be bought! They need to make their engines from scratch, and not copy someone else's using stolen ideas and technologies! You need your own design school, not beautiful fairy tales, you need to create everything yourself from scratch!

[svp67]

Quote: Thrifty

The Chinese still cannot understand that not everything can be bought!

Judging by the actions of their "industrial intelligence", they understand this EXCELLENT

Quote: Thrifty

They need to make their engines from scratch, and not copy someone else's using stolen ideas and technologies!

This is when you are in no hurry ... otherwise, even for the successful copying of high-tech developments, you need your own highest engineering and manufacturing school

Quote: Thrifty

You need your own design school, not beautiful fairy tales, you need to create everything yourself from scratch!

Even to create from scratch, you need to rely on something and understand what you are creating.

[Mountain shooter]

Quote: Thrifty

The Chinese still cannot understand that not everything can be bought.

Every time when it came up, I always wrote that China has a problem with engines for a long time.
Technology is transferred with great difficulty. And you can only steal them with equipment ... They stopped letting Chinese specialists (beyond the negotiation room) to engine factories in Ufa, Perm, Tyumen ... And in Moscow too. Their time is up. And MotorSich "broke off" for them ... It was hard ... it was hard for them to move.

[rocket757]

Their affairs. Such cases about which we ... we will not envy, we have our own affairs.

[voyaka uh]

90 is a very high number. 75 is also a lot.
They built four J-20 assembly lines.
Not all are involved, it seems.

[Sidor Amenpodestovich]

Quote: voyaka uh

90 is a very high number.

I understand that I am drawing a target on myself and you can hate me as you like, but 90 is not a number, but a number! And the numbers are not high, but the indicators!

[Object.F7]

I agree, a lot. And if you take into account the potential of their conveyor, they can tilt to a separate air army. 1 in the videoconferencing against this background loses a lot. Over the same period, they invested in a replacement for the Su-24 and Su-25, in several large units of the Su-34, the armored capsule was still only for the Il-2, and if we consider the Su-34 as a fighter, then the last hawk with armor was German Fw.190 Series A and American Republican Thunderbolt, also epic was a hawk. I wonder if strike manned aircraft still have potential, or if the future lies entirely with strike drones.

[voyaka uh]

Ground strikes will gradually move to drones. Attack helicopters will be the first to "die out". Then nestels drummers, like the F-16. F-35s will gradually turn into scouts and "shepherds" for drones.

[OgnennyiKotik]

Quote: voyaka uh

Attack helicopters will be the first to "die out".

The tactics of their use will sooner change. The main armament will be UAVs and long-range missiles. Right now, these could be Hero 400 and Spike NLOS. In the future, we need relatively light missiles operating at a range of ~ 50 km. This is guaranteed to take the helicopters out of the coverage area of ​​ground-based air defense.
Same role as the F-35, except for the fact that it is a helicopter.

[voyaka uh]

I suppose that in the very near future drones will start hunting for aerial targets. And the first victims will be helicopters.

[OgnennyiKotik]

In response, the helicopter will be armed with defensive equipment. The same laser, UAVs / interceptor missiles, etc. With the fact that attack helicopters in their current form will disappear, I agree. As a platform it is unlikely. The role of highly mobile command centers will remain, similar to the F-35. The manned helicopter will operate unmanned cousins ​​and a swarm of smaller, multi-functional UAVs.
The Turks are already designing helicopters in two versions, manned and unmanned. T-629, by the way, it is either a hybrid or completely electric.

[voyaka uh]

The fight is unequal. There are two people in the helicopter who want
complete the mission and return to base alive.
And the drone is an absolutely fearless piece of iron. He "without hesitation" will go
on a ram, will make the most dangerous crazy turns.
For the kid gamer who leads him is not at risk.

[tralflot1832]

It means that someone left Motor Sicha for a long Chinese yuan, many have everything in their heads, the same technologies.

[Fisherman]

We do not sell them engines without gliders, and they could not copy the technology 100% from the engines of the aircraft they bought from us. Well NO han school of science! Even engines for transport workers are copied poorly, with a loss of thrust of up to 30-40%, and copying more technological ones from SU is generally too tough, and here the traction characteristics are more critical than for engines "cows with wings".

[mvg]

their engines for transport workers are copied unsuccessfully, with a loss of traction up to 30-40%

Yes, yes ... maybe give me some information, where are these numbers from? Again from a sore head?
The engines on their new Y-8 transporter, which are replacing the D-30KP2, are just 12-13% more powerful, therefore the carrying capacity is 76-10 tons higher than that of the Il-12. At the same range.
At the same time, the WS-10D and WS-15B are also created with the aim of surpassing the AL-31F and AL-41. A lot of what the Chinese "copy" end up being better than the "original"

[K150]

Oh yes, these fairy tales again. I've already read a similar one from you about the insane cravings of ws-15. It's funny to read such tales.

[mvg]

It's funny to read such tales.

Doubt that China will master the engines before it gets on the "product 30" rails?
75-90 boards J-20, 300 boards J-10C / D another 200-250 J-11B / J-16, a small handful of Su-27 and analogues, JH-7 about a hundred, two dozen AWACS aircraft ...
Do you still think that the Russian Aerospace Forces are the second in the world in terms of number and composition? At the same time, the J-10/11/16/20 come with AFAR and new V-V, V-surface missiles. And in Syria, we fly Su-35S with the R-27, which is 30 ++ years old.

[Revolver]

Quote: mvg

The engines on their new Y-8 transporter, which are replacing the D-30KP2, are just 12-13% more powerful, therefore the carrying capacity is 76-10 tons higher than that of the Il-12. At the same range.
At the same time, the WS-10D and WS-15B are also created with the aim of surpassing the AL-31F and AL-41. A lot of what the Chinese "copy" end up being better than the "original"

WS-10 copied from General Electric F101, with loss of thrust and MTO (30 hours of operation and overhaul).
With WS-15 in general, consider that there is no information, although, IMHO, if there were successes, the Chinese would yell about it at all angles.
And why would they be so interested in buying Russian motors?

[mvg]

And why would they be so interested in buying Russian motors?

Maybe because it's cheap? They need to sell J-10, they sell it. Clients of AL-31F want, but let them get it.

WS-10 copied from General Electric F101

Here's what's on the wiki.
Indigenous Thrust / Weight: 7.5 replacement for Saturn AL-31 and AL-31F; possibly used to power new Chengdu J-20 fighters
The WS-10D is comparable to the original in terms of service life. 1200 hours and 2000 hours. Far from the Snecma M88-2, with its 8000 hours, but bearable.

Consider not with WS-15

There is infa for 18 kgf on afterburner, which is more than the AL-41F1 on the Su-35S, there are rotary nozzles, there is a photo on the stand, there are exhibitions since 2015. There are solvable problems.
There is, after all, WS-13, a copy of the RD-93

[Revolver]

Quote: Fisherman

Well NO han school of science!

And it won't. And this is a consequence of Chinese culture, from which, incidentally, the Chinese educational system follows. While the Western (and Russian, as an integral part of it) system emphasizes understanding, the Chinese system emphasizes memorization. Quite simply, a gold head against a cast iron ass. The Chinese are simply not capable of inventing something new. To copy - yes, they can, but who will give them the secrets of technology for copying?

[Zaurbek]

All is well with China .... at least efforts to solve this problem are visible ....

[mvg]

And will not be

And therefore they build scientific cities, 100 thousand people each, to study the fundamental sciences. The professors are discharged, and millions of Chinese are studying in the most prestigious universities in the world.

[Warrior MorePhoto]

We will have 72 goals only by 2027, and then if they are not shifted to the right in fashion)) and the development began at the same time)
Bottom and propaganda! Everything is bad for everyone, the dollar will soon collapse, we alone are dartanians about the success of the 2nd generation rocket Attack, we are writing articles and about how cool the destroyer Leader will be

[Zaurbek]

Why isn't China importing the AL-41 as a safety net?

[mvg]

Why China does not import AL-41 for safety net

Each of the 24 Su-35S had 5 AL-41F1s, and an analogue in the form of the WS-15 is being prepared. Should be ready in 21-22.

[Zaurbek]

Yes ... but you can safely conclude a contract for them ... and change as soon as you are ready

[Fisherman]

Quote: mvg

their engines for transport workers are copied unsuccessfully, with a loss of traction up to 30-40%

Yes, yes ... maybe give me some information, where are these numbers from? Again from a sore head?
The engines on their new Y-8 transporter, which are replacing the D-30KP2, are just 12-13% more powerful, therefore the carrying capacity is 76-10 tons higher than that of the Il-12. At the same range.
At the same time, the WS-10D and WS-15B are also created with the aim of surpassing the AL-31F and AL-41. A lot of what the Chinese "copy" end up being better than the "original"

Information from our specialists serving our aircraft in China. Where do you get infa? From the laudatory self-publications of the PRC? DO NOT read their newspapers in the morning.

[Fisherman]

Quote: Nagan

Quote: mvg

The engines on their new Y-8 transporter, which are replacing the D-30KP2, are just 12-13% more powerful, therefore the carrying capacity is 76-10 tons higher than that of the Il-12. At the same range.
At the same time, the WS-10D and WS-15B are also created with the aim of surpassing the AL-31F and AL-41. A lot of what the Chinese "copy" end up being better than the "original"

WS-10 copied from General Electric F101, with loss of thrust and MTO (30 hours of operation and overhaul).
With WS-15 in general, consider that there is no information, although, IMHO, if there were successes, the Chinese would yell about it at all angles.
And why would they be so interested in buying Russian motors?

There is no scientific school in this area, so we have to buy our engines together with our gliders. An airplane engine is not a kettle, you just can't copy it.

[Fisherman]

Quote: Nagan

Quote: Fisherman

Well NO han school of science!

And it won't. And this is a consequence of Chinese culture, from which, incidentally, the Chinese educational system follows. While the Western (and Russian, as an integral part of it) system emphasizes understanding, the Chinese system emphasizes memorization. Quite simply, a gold head against a cast iron ass. The Chinese are simply not capable of inventing something new. To copy - yes, they can, but who will give them the secrets of technology for copying?

I agree. But there is also a nuance: hieroglyphs (that is, pictures) cannot, by definition, develop scientific thinking, only the perception of the existing world, nothing more.