Military Review

Biofuels or Oil? How planes will fly to the future

43

Today experts continue to argue about the prospects for biofuels in aviation industry. Opinions on this matter are different, while it is obvious that so far there is more politics than economics on the issue of biofuels. Biofuels are important primarily for the environment and programs aimed at reducing the amount of harmful CO2 emissions into the atmosphere. Moreover, such fuel can have more harm than good.


What do we know about biofuels?


Today biofuels seem to be something new and special, but in fact they have always surrounded us. The simplest example that every Russian has probably come across is firewood, one of the oldest types of solid biofuels. If we give a generalized characteristic of biofuel, then it can be noted that this is a fuel that is produced from raw materials of plant or animal origin, from the products of vital activity of organisms or organic industrial waste.

For real история Biofuels were actively developed in the 1970s, when the United States passed a federal law to control air pollution at the national level, it was called the Clean Air Act. The law was adopted for quite understandable purposes in order to maximally reduce harmful emissions into the atmosphere of various vehicles: from cars and trains to airplanes. Currently, there are several dozen companies on the market that are engaged in the development and production of biofuels, and most of them are still located in the United States.

Today, there are two main types of biofuels. First-generation biofuels include vegetable fuels, which are extracted from common agricultural crops that are high in fats, sugars and starch. The starch and sugar from crops is converted to ethanol and fats to biodiesel. The most common crops for biofuels are wheat, rapeseed and corn.


The oldest solid biofuel

Second-generation biofuels are industrial biofuels, which are obtained from wood or plant waste, food industry waste, industrial gas waste, etc. The production of such biofuel is less costly than that of first-generation crops.

Algae can become another type of raw material for biofuels of the third generation. This is a promising direction for the development of this industry. Their production does not require scarce land resources, while algae have a high reproduction rate and biomass concentration. It is also important that they can be grown in polluted and salty water.

Until now, most of the world's transport biofuels are first-generation fuels, which are produced from vegetable raw materials. But in recent years, investments in this industry have been falling. This fuel and its production have many disadvantages. One of them is undermining food security. In a world where the problem of hunger has not been resolved, many politicians and activists consider it inappropriate to convert agricultural products into fuel.

Experts believe that the use of such biofuels is more harmful to the climate than good. By reducing emissions from burning fossil fuels, we are simultaneously making major land-use changes. The growing demand for biofuels is forcing agricultural producers to reduce their area for food crops. This is at odds with food security programs in many countries.

The production of biofuels from agricultural raw materials has an indirect effect on food production, the variety of crops grown, food prices, and the area of ​​agricultural land used. In a world predicted to have 2025 billion hungry people by 1,2, spending 2,8 tons of wheat to produce 952 liters of ethanol or 5 tons of corn to produce 2000 liters of ethanol does not seem to be the most rational and ethical decision.


Working ethanol plant

The second generation biofuel looks more promising, which does not harm the environment, does not deprive humanity of food and helps to solve the problem of waste. Experts believe that such biofuel, made from industrial gas and wood waste, has great prospects, including in Russia. In our country, only the waste of the forest industry is estimated at 35 million cubic meters annually, and in terms of logging volumes we are second only to the United States.

Aviation Biofuels Perspective


Aviation and the entire air transport sector can be identified as possible growth drivers for biofuels. Aviation accounts for about 10 percent of the total fuel consumed on the planet, which is quite a lot. However, the prospects for biofuels in aviation are not so clear. Biofuels, as a replacement for the oil from which aviation kerosene is produced, has its pros and cons.

It is important to remember, however, that biofuels have an impressive lobby in aviation. First of all, at the level of organizations, which include the International Air Transport Association and the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). These organizations are lobbying for the biofuel itself and the standards for its use in air travel.

Moreover, the airlines themselves also see some advantages in the use of biofuels. First, they maintain good relations with ICAO and civil society organizations. Secondly, transport is greener. The topic of ecology is currently very popular, one might say, "HYIP", and is a very good PR platform for airlines. Third, biofuels have economic benefits in reducing the risk of volatility in fuel prices.

At the same time, the economy in the issue of biofuels plays both a plus and a minus. First, consider the positive that airlines love. The biofuel market today is over-the-counter, such fuel produces a stable and understandable cost. In turn, the classic fuel obtained in the process of oil refining is an exchange commodity, the cost of which directly depends on the prices on the exchange. Fluctuations in fuel prices go on constantly, and this is observed by everyone, even people far from this area.

Now let's talk about the economic disadvantages. Biofuel production is not cheap. Jay D. Keesling, professor of chemical engineering and bioengineering at the University of California, Berkeley, who is also the chief executive officer of the Joint Institute for Bioenergy, told Global Energy that mass production of biofuels for aviation is currently less cost-effective than producing aviation fuels. kerosene from oil.


Airplane refueling with biofuel

He noted:

“Fuel for modern jet engines, which is made from oil, is very cheap. If countries around the world establish rules that require the use of carbon neutral fuels or introduce carbon taxes on aviation kerosene, this could motivate producers of bioreactive fuels. We know that it is possible to produce such fuel, but the main problem today is the economy. "

Dmitry Los, who is the director of the Timiryazev Institute of Plant Physiology (IPR RAS), agrees with his overseas colleague. The cost of biofuels for aviation is still very high. Biofuel production these days is more of a political will than an economic phenomenon. According to the expert, aviation kerosene is already well purified and emits little into the Earth's atmosphere, in contrast to coal-fired power plants, which are still sufficient throughout the world.

Both Dmitry Los and Jay D. Kisling believe that the most promising will be the use of second and third generation biofuels. The production of biofuel from algae (natural microorganisms), and, in the future, genetically engineered microorganisms seems to be more efficient. This approach has a large resource base and solves the problem of a shortage of agricultural land and irrigation resources.

In addition, such production will be a closed cycle technology that can reproduce itself indefinitely. At least as long as the sun is shining over our planet and the process of photosynthesis is underway. Kisling, in turn, added that the problem of lack of resources could eventually be solved through the widespread use of organic waste in the production of biofuels.

The use of biofuels in aviation


Today, the use of biofuels in aviation is being pushed at the political level. For example, in the EU, aviation accounts for 3 percent of greenhouse gas emissions. Through the use of biofuels, the International Air Transport Association expects to halve the volume of harmful emissions into the atmosphere by 2050 (compared to 2005).

The problem is that all these emissions occur in the most sensitive layers of the Earth's troposphere. Air travel growth of five percent per year could over time lead to an unchanged share of global CO2 emissions from aviation to 3 percent by 2050 (they currently account for 2 percent of emissions globally) ...

For the atmosphere of our planet, even such an increase is already a lot. Taking into account the problem of global climate change on the planet, humanity needs to reduce the volume of harmful emissions and work to improve the environmental friendliness of aircraft engines. This is important if we want to limit our impact on global warming to 1,5 degrees Celsius versus pre-industrial development.


Contrails from planes in the sky

So far, the replacement of aviation kerosene with biofuels is carried out gradually by mixing the two types of fuel in the proportions of 10-20 percent of biofuel to kerosene. Even with such volumes, this gives a tangible reduction in harmful emissions into the atmosphere.

The first experience of using biofuels in aviation dates back to 2008. Then the Virgin Atlantic airline carried out the flight, mixing 20 percent of biofuels with regular aviation kerosene. Since then, this technology has been tested by various airlines, including such large ones as KLM. The most notable achievement belongs to Hainan Airlines, which flew from China to the United States in 2017, using a mixture with the addition of used vegetable oil as fuel.

The Air Force is also interested in technology. For example, in India, the An-32 military transport aircraft have received certification for flights using biofuel. The engines of this aircraft normally run on a mixture, 10 percent of which are biocomponents. By 2024, the Indian Air Force expects to reduce the use of conventional aviation kerosene by $ 4 billion, making a fairly wide switch to biofuels.

By 2030, aerospace corporation Boeing plans to produce aircraft that will be able to make regular flights on XNUMX% biofuel. At least, such plans are really voiced by the aircraft manufacturer today. At the same time, biofuels are far from the only way to reduce harmful emissions into the atmosphere.

A promising direction may be the creation of aircraft with hybrid or all-electric engines. This is a real chance to make aviation not just carbon-neutral, but completely environmentally friendly. It remains only to wait for the appearance of powerful storage batteries, oxidized by atmospheric oxygen.
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  1. Mordvin 3
    Mordvin 3 15 March 2021 18: 15
    +10
    And where did that comrade, who drove moonshine from pine needles, disappeared? Well, Verkhoturov?
    1. Ross xnumx
      Ross xnumx 15 March 2021 18: 38
      +4
      Biofuels or Oil? How planes will fly to the future

      How great it is that humanity began to worry, took care of all the "Gretatunberg" hatred about environmental problems ...
      ==========
      I love to dream by the moon.
      Ta-ta-ta, ta-ta-ta ... bed.

      By 2030, aerospace corporation Boeing plans to produce aircraft that will be able to make regular flights on XNUMX% biofuel.

      And where are the biofuel planes from Tupolev and Ilyushin? When will the kids "MC" and "SSJ" "cut through" the airspace? Or is it just such information for thought?
      It didn't work out now with biofuel for aircraft from Russia. However, as with the planes themselves ...
      Look at your leisure why and who:
      1. Klingon
        Klingon 15 March 2021 20: 23
        +1
        Well, the Brahmans AN-32 fly on a mixture of biofuel. I think SSJ with its American engines will be able to. Another thing is that we do not produce it this biofuel. the oligatorial oil lobby is not interested in this
        1. Ross xnumx
          Ross xnumx 15 March 2021 20: 38
          +3
          Quote: Klingon
          Another thing is that we do not produce it this biofuel. the oligatorial oil lobby is not interested in this

          The oligarchic lobby is interested in only one thing: maximizing profit with minimal investment. It is these Deripaskas, Abramovichs, Potanins (and these are only those that are heard) conduct their parasitic activities on Russian soil.
          Russia has huge reserves of natural resources, the main of which is fresh water, and we do not have the opportunity to come up with something special that the whole world could envy. All we were worthy of was to pick up scraps from the master's table and wait until they would pay attention to us, because we live here.
          There was an article about cannabis recently. And when we pronounce this word, only the thought of drug addicts arises.
          1. Klingon
            Klingon 16 March 2021 01: 07
            +3
            89% of Russia's natural resources are not the property of the people, but the state of a handful of thieving parasites with a mafia past, their friends, carifans, homies, radishes, etc. unfortunately drinks
      2. Normal ok
        Normal ok 16 March 2021 06: 18
        -1
        While the author reflects on the advantages / disadvantages of biofuels, the world has already decided to develop hydrogen energy.
    2. Free wind
      Free wind 15 March 2021 18: 41
      +8
      Ha, from the needles, he drove her out of urine. wassat
      1. Mordvin 3
        Mordvin 3 15 March 2021 18: 45
        +8
        Quote: Free Wind
        Ha, from the needles, he drove her out of urine. wassat

        And from the needles too. Have you tasted it, or what? Eh, a tin can ... These are the biofuels ...
        1. WHAT IS
          WHAT IS 15 March 2021 18: 50
          +14
          Quote: Free Wind
          Ha, from the needles, he drove her out of urine.

          Quote: Mordvin 3
          Have you tasted it, or what? Eh, a tin can ...

          It is a pity for the inventor-rationalizer. Here is who exactly could help aviation with new fuel.
          1. Mordvin 3
            Mordvin 3 15 March 2021 18: 59
            +9
            Quote: WHAT IS
            .That's who exactly would be able to help aviation with new fuel.

            He seemed to say that he was drinking little by little, and was counting on the production of biofuels on a national scale. Probably the poet's soul could not stand it.
      2. Proxima
        Proxima 15 March 2021 19: 37
        +7
        Everything in this world is relative. Let's say whale oil - why not biofuel? But it was thanks to the industrial extraction of oil that this giant mammal was saved from global extermination. True, all Gretham Turbengs cannot understand this .. fool
        1. Kuroneko
          Kuroneko 16 March 2021 14: 13
          +1
          Quote: Proxima
          True, all Grets Turbengs cannot understand this ..

          Let him, while skipping school, learn to ride thousands of kilometers on a bicycle, and tens of thousands on a sailboat. She needs to appear in an environmentally friendly way at numerous symposia around the world.
          Note that a bicycle should have wooden wheels - even if you drive rubber from rubber (which is thermally treated Hevea juice), CO2 emissions are inevitable already during the period of vulcanization of the juice into rubber. And in general, it should be entirely wooden. Where there is metal, there is always CO2.
          1. Proxima
            Proxima 16 March 2021 23: 04
            0
            Quote: Kuroneko

            Note that the bike must have wooden wheels.

            Yes, even if these Greenpeace employees do not attack oil platforms on plastic boats, and even (sedition, what belay ) filled with gasoline. Wooden rafts, oars and go!
      3. Intruder
        Intruder 16 March 2021 04: 20
        -1
        he drove her out of urine
        and then he got poisoned and disappeared !? wink laughing
  2. demo
    demo 15 March 2021 18: 40
    +5
    By 2030, aerospace corporation Boeing plans to produce aircraft that will be able to make regular flights on XNUMX% biofuel.
  3. Doccor18
    Doccor18 15 March 2021 18: 51
    +8
    Brazil has long been using biofuels with might and main, which supplanted oil.
    However, the data on the cost of production vary greatly. Some write that it is not profitable, more expensive than gasoline, others that it is cheaper than petroleum products ...
    1. Ross xnumx
      Ross xnumx 15 March 2021 20: 44
      +1
      Quote: Doccor18
      Some write that it is not profitable, more expensive than gasoline, others that it is cheaper than petroleum products ...

      To approach the reasoning on this topic is fraught. You can wind up your brains. One thing is clear, biofuel does not require so much investment in transportation (it can be produced anywhere in different volumes depending on the capacity of the created production) and it is much easier to preserve wells or shut off the supply. The same principle of the separator (exaggerated, of course): one cow - turn the handle, many cows - press the button.
    2. 72jora72
      72jora72 16 March 2021 00: 34
      +1
      Brazil has long been using biofuels to replace oil
      Yes, in Brazil 60% of vehicles use alcohol, or a mixture with gasoline .........
    3. Intruder
      Intruder 16 March 2021 04: 25
      0
      Some write that it is not profitable, more expensive than gasoline, others that it is cheaper than petroleum products ...
      depending on where it is mined and processed in Brazil, it is possible, as well as in Argentina, the climate allows, in North America, in the southern states as well .., but in Canada and Alaska, it is already expensive and unprofitable! It is easier, then hydrogen is "driven" and transported by tankers like liquefied natural gas, or "through a pipe", and produced next to nuclear power plants and geothermal sources nearby, there was an article at VO about the program for the development of hydrogen energy in the Russian Federation .. ...
  4. Free wind
    Free wind 15 March 2021 19: 10
    +8
    The salvation of the hungry is the work of the hungry themselves. The article is again on the topic, everyone is not smart, and this is even more harmful than oil and sparrows bang their heads against the fan. After the production of oil from rapeseed, cake remains, which is used as feed for livestock, piglets and chickens, etc. After the distillation of mash from cereals, potatoes into alcohol, the waste is stillage. Again, it goes to feed livestock. From wood waste, ordinary ethyl alcohol is obtained by hydrolysis. There were dozens of hydrolysis plants in the country in the country, for some reason they were all destroyed. probably were harmful. There is nothing harmful in these industries. And the starving natives of the ika-puka, from the thickets of bamboo. Let them think for themselves why they give birth to skeletons. True, maybe they do not know where the children come from, well, so explain to them. That this is not at the request of the great Tumba-Yumba.
    1. Bolt cutter
      Bolt cutter 15 March 2021 22: 24
      +3
      starving natives of ika-puka
      If you feed a million hungry blacks for a year, then next year you will have to feed one and a half million hungry blacks. Moreover, in proportion to their number, their requests for the subject of the proposed menu will grow.
  5. Dimide
    Dimide 15 March 2021 19: 34
    +3
    I read that the French for fast food buy "working off" for fuel for aircraft
  6. Undecim
    Undecim 15 March 2021 20: 04
    +6
    The author missed the fourth generation of biofuels - photobiological solar fuel.
    In the production of this raw material, special living microorganisms are used, which, with the help of photosynthetic cells, will be able to produce biofuel raw materials for some time (more precisely, several cycles of photosynthesis).
    An example of such microorganisms is cyanobacteria, which turned out to be a very attractive target for gene modification. To date, several versions of genetically modified cyanobacteria have been developed (most of them are patented and classified, characterized by completely different properties and directions of use.
    The American company Joule Unlimited (originally named Joule Biotechnology), Massachusetts, has created its own, patented, genetically modified version of cyanobacteria that can synthesize ethanol and diesel fuel; a pilot plant in Leander, Texas, yielded first production; according to the calculations of the developers, from 1 acre a year using a technology called helioculture, it is possible to produce 25000 gallons of bioethanol and 15000 gallons of diesel fuel; its expected price is $ 30 per barrel.
    1. aybolyt678
      aybolyt678 15 March 2021 21: 02
      +7
      Quote: Undecim
      The author missed the fourth generation of biofuels

      the author missed a lot .... any oil and coal is also a biological product. CO2 emissions are a political cliché for social training smile ... CO2 is easily utilized by plants and algae. With its increased content, they grow vigorously laughing
      nothing is said in the article about thermonuclear fusion and its portable variants
  7. Mikhail m
    Mikhail m 15 March 2021 20: 31
    +10
    Environmental bells and whistles are somehow considered very one-sided. Take electric cars, for example. The environmental damage from them, taking into account the losses in the generation and transmission of electricity, is much greater than from the internal combustion engine. This is not even counting the harm from the production and disposal of batteries. Disposable tableware and packaging, including bags - do you need comments? Cars and household appliances with an artificially limited resource - what a blow to the environment? And against this background, ranting about the scanty volumes of biofuels and their impact on the environment is the height of cynicism and gretatungbergism.
  8. Keyser soze
    Keyser soze 15 March 2021 20: 58
    +2
    You can joke with green trends, but they are inevitable and accelerating from day to day. Let's see what the energy giants are doing:

    1. Total - The French intend to invest 10% of their budget in capturing carbon dioxide (is it carbon dioxide in Russian?). This will be a very lucrative business as the price of carbon credits rises.
    2. Chevron - invests in a startup Blue Planet Systems, which will also capture CO2.
    3. Exxon Mobil - creates the Low Carbon Solutions link, with CO2 and hydrogen fuel operations.
    4.Occidental Petroleum - have a link (Oxy Low Carbon Ventures) that invests company funds in projects related to green energy.

    A leaf of energy giants that are starting to engage in CO2, hydrogen, green energy, etc. increases rapidly. They do not want to miss the market for which the near future lies. I think that over the next 10-20 years we will see very rapid changes in the energy mix, and especially for cars and airplanes, while energy sharks look around and think very quickly as if they were left in the pocket of the layman.
    1. ANB
      ANB 16 March 2021 00: 39
      +1
      ... A list of energy giants that are starting to deal with CO2,

      If carbon dioxide is captured industrially, then what will the plants (and we) eat?
      So in China, sparrows have already been destroyed once.
      1. Israel
        Israel 25 May 2021 21: 19
        0
        Plants have enough, what the industry captures is additional CO2 and the plants themselves do not lead to decarbonization, in the process of their decay all consumed CO2 is released.
        1. ANB
          ANB 26 May 2021 00: 18
          0
          ... in the process of their decay, all consumed CO2 is released

          Whole ??????? Carbon is found in almost any organic matter. When rotting, it does not decompose at all. And not all parts of plants rot.
          Actually, a decent part is eaten by animals.
          1. Israel
            Israel 26 May 2021 06: 26
            0
            Yes, of course, something is eaten by animals, which then also decompose, some part of the carbon is bound to plants, in swamps, plus the “forest” itself extinguishes CO2 during growth, but initially there was a statement that by capturing CO2 in the industrial. production, we will make the poor plants “starve.” Well, the reduction of forests also contributes, for example, the passed peak of CO2 offtake

            https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2035-0?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+nature%2Frss%2Fcurrent+%28Nature+-+Issue%29
  9. Petrol cutter
    Petrol cutter 15 March 2021 22: 31
    +2
    Electric only.
    And I don't care how many tons of oil / coal we burn to ensure energy supply. At power plants / central units.
    The main thing is that the cars will be clean!
    1. Israel
      Israel 25 May 2021 21: 46
      0
      Renewable energy plus hydrogen as a buffer / accumulator is the current trend.
  10. mongol9999
    mongol9999 15 March 2021 22: 38
    +5
    Chemists explain how biofuels (the same hydrocarbon chains) are safer when oxidized than oxidizing pure carbon. Acetic aldehyde, as a product of the oxidation reaction, is much more dangerous to humans than carbon dioxide. If it decomposes further, it turns out (Tada-am) water and carbon dioxide. So biofuels are epic crap to lobby for grain demand and raise prices. There is no concern for the environment in this. Especially gifted raise the statistics of CO2 emission by natural organic processes of the earth and the volume of CO2 emission by man and his civilization. Our volumes will not be even one hundredth of a percent.

    And the fighters for the ecology, like gretuta, need to take a shovel in their hands and plant forests.
    1. ycuce234-san
      ycuce234-san 16 March 2021 00: 32
      0
      Initially, the idea came from the time of classical biology and its section - ecology, together with the theory of evolution and another scientific discipline - geology with its doctrine of the geological history of the Earth.
      The idea was that it is unacceptable to get the carbon buried in geological rocks and send it into the atmosphere and only biospheric carbon should be used. Natural sources of such carbon exist of two types - permanent ones, which are already in the natural balance, and rare peak emissions. And humanity, as a powerful and constant source, presumably can break all this equilibrium and lead to all sorts of troubles like opusification or even transformation into the second Venus ...
  11. dgonni
    dgonni 16 March 2021 00: 43
    0
    I alone did not understand what the article was for?
    If my memory serves me, then with an alliance in such a magazine as Science and Life. In the year 87-88, a description of the Soviet Tu-154 flying on hydrogen was given! Well, not completely, but one engine was definitely powered by it!
    So the union had technologies and was able to use them even then.
    So you just need to raise the archives and bring them to the modern level of production.
    Although I don’t know who to translate now.
    The bison are gone, as are their students.
    For a new growth, this is a wonder.
    1. Intruder
      Intruder 16 March 2021 04: 33
      +1
      In the year 87-88, a description of the Soviet Tu-154 flying on hydrogen was given! Well, not completely, but one engine was definitely powered by it!

      Used by the State Research Institute of Civil Aviation and LII named after M. M. Gromov. Prototype: Tu-155 - a version with an NK-88 engine running on hydrogen, then on liquefied natural gas. Received onboard USSR-85035, only 6.9.1973 ...
  12. Peaceful SEO
    Peaceful SEO 16 March 2021 13: 42
    -1
    Well, chtotza nonsense .. how did the green ones get it already. Kerosene from oil means it leaves a carbon footprint, but kerosene from corn does not. And, excuse me, what is burning there then ???
    1. Intruder
      Intruder 16 March 2021 16: 26
      -1
      And, excuse me, what is burning there then ???
      However, not every carbon is useful ... but "activated" is quite ... laughing wink Regarding the "corn" one, I honestly do not know, on the second car, although it is eco-diesel - the label is stuck on the end of the body, but I pour high-octane diesel fuel, and my wife has high-octane gasoline .., although we are already looking closely at the "electric trains" and "hydrogen engines", but personally, while I'm looking at the essence of the matter, it will be further ...
  13. Kuroneko
    Kuroneko 16 March 2021 14: 05
    0
    For the atmosphere of our planet, even such an increase is already a lot. Taking into account the problem of global climate change on the planet, humanity needs to reduce the volume of harmful emissions and work to improve the environmental friendliness of aircraft engines. This is important if we want to limit our impact on global warming to 1,5 degrees Celsius versus pre-industrial development.

    The heavily propagandized nonsense that has eaten into the minds of many people.
    Is it okay that the Earth is now just on the verge of a new small ice age?
    https://inform-ua.info/science/1581410649-nasa-prognozyruet-nastuplenye-malogo-lednykovogo-peryoda

    And according to the supposedly anthropogenic impact (the pitiful little people imagined that they were already deciding something on the climate on the Dirt ball?):
    https://mgimo.ru/about/news/experts/globalnoe-poteplenie-ili-pokholodanie/
    Now, regarding the role of man in this change. Professor G.M. Kruchenitsky in his report “On the fundamental scientific inconsistency of the concept of anthropogenic global warming,” he said very simply: “Anthropogenic global warming is not an erroneous hypothesis. This is a banter! " The author emphasizes that climate models have three classes of difficulties, each of which would be enough to permanently close all the so-called "climate modeling". All models use the Navier-Stokes equation in a rotating coordinate system. This equation, intended to describe fluid flow, includes the phenomenon of turbulence when the Reynoldtz number is exceeded. And if there is turbulence, then there is no single solution. And if there is no single solution, then numerical methods cannot be used. But they are the only ones that are used in climate modeling.

    This reason for the wave is sufficient to avoid discussing the issue of the reliability of model climate predictions.

    Almost 20 years ago, the Russian scientist-geographer, Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences RAS Andrei Kapitsa said that global warming does not exist, this is a myth. On the contrary, since 1975 there has been a slow cooling. Another myth, the scientist called the influence of man and his activities on climate change. The climate on our planet is changing regardless of our desire or unwillingness. Moreover, carbon dioxide emissions, which are considered the main cause of the "greenhouse effect", are just a consequence of natural warming, which has now been replaced by an equally natural cycle of "cooling" of the planet. This happens, approximately, according to the following scheme: the climate changes cyclically from ice ages to warming, but at the same time, when the World Ocean - the main storage of carbon dioxide - heats up, a powerful release into the atmosphere occurs even by half a degree. When the temperature changes towards minus, the concentration of carbon dioxide begins to decrease. In addition, its content is also influenced by the activity of volcanoes and forest fires. But not the industrial activity of man, concludes Kapitsa.
    1. Intruder
      Intruder 16 March 2021 16: 27
      -1
      Is it okay that the Earth is now just on the verge of a new small ice age?
      it happened before !!! And what, now we will all die or someone will remain in the bunkers of Norway, or elsewhere! ??? wink
    2. Israel
      Israel 25 May 2021 21: 47
      0
      And according to the alleged anthropogenic impact (the pitiful little people imagined that they were already deciding something about the climate on the Dirt ball?)


      This is no longer the case, and the world scientific community has come to a consensus on this issue.
      1. Kuroneko
        Kuroneko 25 May 2021 22: 03
        0
        Proofs? Or, again, an ordinary provocative post?
        1. Israel
          Israel 26 May 2021 06: 29
          0
          Please

          https://deepcarbon.net/scientists-quantify-global-volcanic-co2-venting-estimate-total-carbon-earth

          Just two-one thousandths * of 1% of Earth's total carbon — about 43,500 gigatonnes (Gt) [1] —is above surface in the oceans, on land, and in the atmosphere. The rest is subsurface, including the crust, mantle and core — an estimated 1.85 billion Gt in all
          CO2 out-gassed to the atmosphere and oceans today from volcanoes and other magmatically active regions is estimated at 280 to 360 million tonnes (0.28 to 0.36 Gt) per year, including that released into the oceans from mid-ocean ridges
          Humanity's annual carbon emissions through the burning of fossil fuels and forests, etc., are 40 to 100 times greater than all volcanic emissions
          Earth's deep carbon cycle through deep time reveals balanced, long-term stability of atmospheric CO2, punctuated by large disturbances, including immense, catastrophic releases of magma that occurred at least five times in the past 500 million years. During these events, huge volumes of carbon were outgassed, leading to a warmer atmosphere, acidified oceans, and mass extinctions
          Similarly, a giant meteor impact 66 million years ago, the Chicxulub bolide strike on Mexico's Yucatan peninsula, released between 425 and 1,400 Gt of CO2, rapidly warmed the planet and coincided with the mass (> 75%) extinction of plants and animals — including the dinosaurs. Over the past 100 years, emissions from anthropogenic activities such as burning fossil fuels have been 40 to 100 times greater than our planet's geologic carbon emissions
          A shift in the composition of volcanic gases from smelly (akin to burnt matches) sulfur dioxide (SO2) to a gas richer in odorless, colorless CO2 can be sniffed out by monitoring stations or drones to forewarn of an eruption — sometimes hours, sometimes months in advance. Eruption early warning systems with real-time monitoring are moving ahead to exploit the CO2 to SO2 ratio discovery, first recognized with certainty in 2014