Foreign expert: At first, Turkey invaded the "backyard" of Russia - in Karabakh, but in the end the influence was short-lived

Attempts are made in foreign publications to analyze the situation with the Turkish presence in Karabakh after the end of hostilities in the region. Recall that a group of Turkish military observers is in a monitoring center with the Russian Federation in the Aghdam region of Azerbaijan. This stay is legitimized by a joint agreement and approval from the Azerbaijani side.

Political analyst Neil Hauer published an article in the Asia Times, which says that at the moment, no particular Turkish activity in Karabakh, as previously expected, is showing.

According to the expert, if Turkey is really going to increase its influence in the region, then the forces and means that it has there today will not be able to do this by definition. And these forces and means must either be increased, or everything will remain as it is now.

Neil Hauer:

Initially, the situation was as follows: Turkey invaded the backyard of Russia - Karabakh, gaining a foothold in the region. In the end, however, this Turkish influence did not last long. If the Russian military in Nagorno-Karabakh is at least 2 thousand people, then the Turkish - less than a hundred.

According to Hauer, this insignificant military presence of Turkey in Karabakh gives Russia additional opportunities for its consolidation in the region. The expert notes that if it were not for the Turkish appearance there, then Russia, in fact, would not have had the opportunity to gain a foothold militarily in the territory of the Republic of Azerbaijan.

Comments

[Lech from Android.]

In five years, the agreement on Karabakh will have to be extended ... and there it is still unknown how the situation around this region will change.

[Nyrobsky]

Quote: Lech from Android.

In five years, the agreement on Karabakh will need to be extended... and there it is still unknown how the situation around this region will change.

If there are no objections from Yerevan, then the agreement will be prolonged automatically, but something suggests that there will be no objections, since there will be no objections. the departure of the Russian contingent from their positions implies that they will be occupied by Azerbaijanis.
On the other hand, taking into account the fact that after the joint operation against Armenia a "honey-marriage" period began in Baku and Ankara, it seems that Turkey has no particular obstacles to increase its military presence on the territory of Azerbaijan.

[g1v2]

How many of our contingents are in the PMR? And Moldova has been demanding to withdraw it for years. How did Georgia's attempt to expel our peacekeepers from South Ossetia ended? Why should it be different with Karabakh?
In fact, Azerbaijan's victory is a small tactical victory and a big strategic defeat for Turkey. Azerbaijan no longer needs it and even becomes dangerous in terms of fears for Nakhichevan. where the Turkish influence is enormous. Moreover, Russian influence in Azerbaijan will constantly grow, since the obstacle to this has been removed. So Turkish will fall. But outwardly, there will still be kisses on the camera and stories about "one people - two countries" and so on. But the Azerbaijani elites do not want to fall under the Turks, because they understand that then they will simply disappear. But they are ready to play as little brothers in exchange for goodies and help. Pan-Turkism is as much a stillborn idea as Pan-Slavism.

[Nyrobsky]

Quote: g1v2

How many of our contingents are on the territory of the PMR? And Moldova has been demanding to withdraw it for years. How did Georgia's attempt to expel our peacekeepers from South Ossetia ended? Why should it be different with Karabakh?

Simply because the terms of placement and the procedure for withdrawing our contingent are spelled out in the agreement. It also says that in the absence of requirements of one of the parties to withdraw the contingent, the agreement (i.e. stay) will be extended for the next five years. This is not my idea.

Quote: g1v2

But in fact, the victory of Azerbaijan is a small tactical victory and great strategic defeat for Turkey... Azerbaijan no longer needs it and even becomes dangerous in terms of fears for Nakhichevan. where turkish influence is huge

A dubious statement in the sense that Turkey, by and large, has officially consolidated its military presence in Azerbaijan and gained access to the Caspian Sea, which will strengthen its ties with Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, which it sees in its zone of influence as part of the revival of the Ottoman Empire. True, Ankara will have to restrain its ambitions not only because Russia will try to limit its influence in the Transcaucasus, but also because Iran is also not interested in strengthening Turkey on its border.

Quote: g1v2

Moreover, Russian influence in Azerbaijan will constantly grow, since the obstacle to this has been removed. This means that the Turkish will fall. But the Azerbaijani elites do not want to fall under the Turks, because they understand that then they will simply disappear.

I don't know why you decided that, but practice shows that Russia's influence in Azerbaijan is still decreasing, while Ankara's influence is growing. Numerous joint exercises, purchases of Turkish weapons, military training as part of the exchange of experience, the closure of the Russian radar station in Gabala, is an example. And the elite? Elite, it is the same everywhere, especially with the prefix "business". She goes where there is something to profit from and is not burdened with excessive patriotism.

Quote: g1v2

Pan-Turkism is as much a stillborn idea as Pan-Slavism.

In principle, it is true. There are too many constraints and balances.

[g1v2]

This is not the only reason. These are dead ideas because the local elites are not at all eager to obey their big brother - both Russia and Turkey. Here milk them in their own interests on the principle of "resources and protection in exchange for kisses" as much as necessary. It doesn't matter if it's Serbs, Armenians or Azeris. The principle is one. Turks consider Azerbaijanis to be the same Turks, but only living for some reason in a separate country. "One people - two states" is about that. And the Azerbaijani elites understand this very well. And since there is only one people, why should Nakhichevan be Azerbaijan if it does not have a border with it, but Turkey does? the annexation of Nakhichevan fits into this logic. Well, then they will explain to the locals that there were no Azerbaijanis, but they were just Turks. And they will explain to them that they are praying incorrectly and they should forget about all Karbala.
Further, the Turkey-Qatar alliance now has too many opponents and enemies. The same Aliyev is clearly not in a position to take them upon himself. For example, opponents of the Turkish-Qatari alliance - the alliance of Israel and the Saudis with the Limitrophes, the Emirati-Egyptian alliance, the Greeks with Cyprus. Plus bad relations with the Franks. Graters with us and the Shiite axis. That is why Azerbaijan is quarreling with all this set? Especially if the victory in the war was not brought to him by Bayraktars, but by Israeli UAVs and Russian armored vehicles and artillery? What can he get under the Turks?
Well, the improvement in relations with us is clearly visible from the 10th year. Large-scale purchases of weapons from us and Batka. Russian goods on the shelves of Azerbaijani stores. Caspian Treaty. And the last negotiations on Karabakh. to which the Turks were not even invited. Plus, we now have a base and a military contingent on the territory of Azerbaijan. Plus, we now control the connection between Azerbaijan and Nakhichevan and the Lachin corridor. Plus economic transport projects of the North-South type. In general, I think that sooner or later we will see joint exercises and agreements on military cooperation. The obstructing obstacle has been removed and further trade and military cooperation can be established. But the Turks - three cripples with binoculars and separate offices next to our officers. In order not to be offended.

[Finban]

By agreement dated November 9, 2020
The peacekeepers will stay on the territory of Azerbaijan for 5 years.

[Krasnoyarsk]

Quote: g1v2

Moreover, Russian influence in Azerbaijan will constantly grow, since the obstacle to this has been removed. AND

???. If possible, then in more detail please. What is the basis for this conclusion?

[Kangarli]

If there are no objections from Yerevan

Do you accidentally confuse anything? What has Yerevan to do with it?

“Armenia did not recognize the independence and sovereignty of Nagorno-Karabakh. This meant that, from the point of view of international law, both Nagorno-Karabakh and all the regions adjacent to it were and are an integral part of the territory of the Republic of Azerbaijan, ”the Russian president said.

Even if someone is interested in the opinions of Armenia, then with the current government there are more chances that they will agree that the peacekeepers left Karabakh. The ideal option would be to deploy peacekeepers on the border with Armenia. This would guarantee peace for years to come.

[Captain Pushkin]

Quote: Nyrobsky

it seems that Turkey has no special obstacles to build up its military presence on the territory of Azerbaijan.

Aliyev does not at all look like a lop-eared village boy that you can have for a piece of candy.
He will only do what is beneficial to him, as the head of Azerbaijan.
At the same time pouring praises to all interested parties.
But words, these are just words, you can't sew a fur coat out of them.

[iouris]

Khoja Nasreddin: "In five years, toli donkey, toli shah, toli I ... The situation, however!"

[Uncle lee]

if not for the Turkish appearance

And in Syria, and in Libya .... In short, where the Turks penetrated, the Russians appear next! Control and accounting for Erdogan

[g1v2]

In my opinion, it is already obvious that Erdogan and Putin have been playing agreements since 16. All the actions of the Turks benefit both us and them. Erdogan's decision alone to make Hagia Sophia a mosque is worth a lot. It was impossible to make a bigger gift to the Russian Orthodox Church and a kick in the ass to Bartholomew. And so all the steps of the Turks. What the Sultan doesn’t fire at, he even flew to Moscow with printed maps of Syria, which the journalists filmed during the negotiations.

[rocket757]

Foreign expert: At first, Turkey invaded the "backyard" of Russia - in Karabakh, but in the end the influence was short-lived

Trying one, two, three, there will be four, five ...
That's such a "friend" Sam Brooke!

[Zaurbek]

Everything is not bad for the Turks, in Azerbaijan itself they have strengthened .... Oil and money are in Baku, and they are friends with it. And Baku is profitable - a big country, a neighbor - an ally with a strong Armed Forces and a more understandable policy than the Russian Federation. And Karabakh needs to be fed, why do the Turks need it?

[venik]

Quote: Zaurbek

a big country, a neighbor - an ally with a strong armed forces and a more understandable policy than the Russian Federation.

=======
Aha! This is what the Turks have "more understandable than the RF policy"??? Are you kidding me ??? Or is it such" subtle "humor?
Yes, all of Europe, the Middle East and North Africa are racking their heads over the question - "WHAT the Sultan will throw out tomorrow?"

[Zaurbek]

In relation to Karabakh and the Armenian occupation of Azerbaijan, the most understandable and understandable policy of Russia

[Nycteaph]

That's just not particularly in relation to Azerbaijan itself.

[ultra]

I disagree with you, Erdogan is absolutely unpredictable, and all the problems of the Turks are caused by this, plus there is a complete outage in the economy.

[Stirbjorn]

Why is the Karabakh backyard ?! The Caucasus for the last 3-4 centuries has always been an object of Russian geopolitics

[Flooding]

Quote: Stirbjorn

The Caucasus for the last 3-4 centuries has always been an object of Russian geopolitics

slightly bent, for a hundred years.
Well, Persia and the Port in the Transcaucasus also had plots.

[Stirbjorn]

Quote: Flood

slightly bent, for a hundred years.

I rounded up to the moment when the Kabardian princess became the wife of Ivan the Terrible 1561. Well, since the time of Peter I, who entered Derbent, we can safely assume

[Pavel73]

What kind of chauvinism they have! Is it really impossible without such disgusting formulations "backyard"? People live there, by the way.

[Terenin]

Quote: Pavel73

What kind of chauvinism they have! Is it really impossible without such disgusting formulations "backyard"? People live there, by the way.

So these

foreign experts

have not bothered to be tactful about comments on Russia for a long time

[knn54]

“There will be no peacekeepers from Turkey in Nagorno-Karabakh. The boundaries of the mobility of Turkish observers are limited by those geographic coordinates that will be determined for the deployment of a Russian-Turkish monitoring center on the territory of Azerbaijan, in the part of the territory that is not close to Karabakh. It will be a stationary center, no field missions are planned "...
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.
We will see.

[Xlor]

1. Russia needs to leave this very "back yard"
2. Build a high wall near the "backyard"
3. Mine the border and release the hungry dogs ...

[Pereira]

Trump has already tried. Yaytsenyukh tried. Where are these walls? What will be different with us?

[Xlor]

There is no wall on the Mexican border, but in the very near future they expect 11 million immigrants from underdeveloped countries ...

[Siberian54]

to leave like that to leave .. In the American way, the more we leave, the more troops remain ..this is how it will be normal!

[Azimuth]

Uh-huh, the strategist was found. And then build a fence in the Moscow region, and then there is no need to waste time on trifles and the Kremlin walls will still serve as a fence ...

[Xlor]

In order not to build a fence in the suburbs, it must be built near the "back yard" ...

[rotmistr60]

Zaurbek (Zaur)
Everything is not bad for the Turks, in Azerbaijan itself they have strengthened ... Oil and money ..

Let's be honest. In Azerbaijan they have long been entrenched, but it seemed to them not enough. Therefore, they pushed you to war. But the Turks were not ready (did not expect) for the appearance of Russian peacekeepers in Karabakh, therefore today they seem to be on the sidelines.

[Azimuth]

Are wrong in their conclusions. I think if the Turks had taken a foothold there, the situation they would have would have been completely different. In the meantime, they are dancing between several centers of power at the regional and global level. And somewhere, the Turks are periodically left with a nose.

[Anar]

Turkey invades Russia's backyard - Karabakh

With these words, the scoundrel Neil Hauer wants to inflame the hatred of the Caucasus countries against Russia and Turkey? Or wants to link these 2 countries? Or has he forgotten the story of how the ego ancestors actually occupied North America by staging genocide against local tribes? It turns out he himself is a descendant of bandits and thugs !!! Why doesn't someone remind them of this?
On a hike, Aliyev was slapped in the face to his fellow countrymen when he said - I did not invite you here, why did you come ... correct.

[Emil Azeri]

You distort the words said by Putin, in paragraph 4 of the peacekeepers.

4. The peacekeeping contingent of the Russian Federation is deployed in parallel with the withdrawal of the Armenian armed forces. The duration of the stay of the peacekeeping contingent of the Russian Federation is 5 years with automatic extension for the next 5-year periods, if none of the Parties notifies 6 months before the expiration of the period of intention to terminate the application of this provision.

This is copied from the Kremlin website.
That is, the application of one of the parties about the intention to terminate the presence is already enough to avoid prolonging the presence of the peacekeepers.
So, do not pass off your "desired" as real, written in the 4th paragraph.)

[Azimuth]

Quote: Nyrobsky

Quote: Lech from Android.

In five years, the agreement on Karabakh will need to be extended... and there it is still unknown how the situation around this region will change.

If there are no objections from Yerevan, then the agreement will be prolonged automatically, but something suggests that there will be no objections, since there will be no objections. the departure of the Russian contingent from their positions implies that they will be occupied by Azerbaijanis.
On the other hand, taking into account the fact that after the joint operation against Armenia a "honey-marriage" period began in Baku and Ankara, it seems that Turkey has no particular obstacles to increase its military presence on the territory of Azerbaijan.

In addition to the objections of Yerevan, there are also those of Baku. According to the text, "one of the parties", that is, either Armenia or Azerbaijan.
And it’s a no brainer that Azerbaijan will want to withdraw our MC. But it all depends on who will be in power in Azerbaijan in a little over 4 years and what the internal political situation in Azerbaijan will be.
Ilham Aliyev is afraid of the Turks and does not let them come close, realizing that his days in power will be numbered as soon as the Turks gain a foothold and have a solid and strong support in various structures of Azerbaijan, primarily in the security forces. With his current multi-vector policy, in other words, "both yours and ours," he will not dare to ask for the withdrawal of our peacekeepers if he knows that we do not want their withdrawal. In the long term, he has the task of transferring power to his son and in this he has no one to rely on except us, not only Europe, but even the Turkish brothers will not understand and accept this.

[Armen Sologyan]

Turkey is still lucky to get off easy.