Military Review

OPEC +: a counter plan for Russia

39

Ministerial approach



On March 4, the ministers of the countries of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and the OPEC + participants who joined them decided to postpone the previously planned reduction in quotas for reducing hydrocarbon production for at least a month.

This confirms the desire not to overestimate the continuing rise in oil prices. And this did not come as a big surprise. What happened only shows that the confusion and ferment in OPEC is behind, and the organization again behaves like a real cartel.

Classic cartel conspiracy is just the order of the day. In March 2021, oil prices almost returned to levels that were fixed before the pandemic. However, this was not a reason for the reduction of quotas, which limited the scale of hydrocarbon production in almost all large oil-producing countries.

The cost of one barrel has already passed the $ 70 mark, after which a breakthrough in the direction of $ 100 is no longer a fantasy. Mike Mueller, head of the Asian department of one of the largest international oil traders Vitol group, believes that this is the evidence that OPEC retains leverage on the market.

He has no doubt that

“Stocks will be depleted, and in the second quarter this process (price rise - Ed.) Will accelerate. Hence such a reaction of the market ”.

"Near-maturity contracts are not growing as fast as Asia was hoping for."

But in conditions when reports about the victory over the coronavirus are by no means a matter of the near future, and general vaccination is progressing somehow not very well, no one expected otherwise.

Where is the director?


The next OPEC summit - first a meeting of the monitoring committee, and after it a ministerial meeting, and without that presented the world with many surprises. The main sensation (at least from Moscow) is the reduction of the quota for Russia, already the second this year.

In fact, Russia has been given the exclusive right to increase production by 130 barrels per day in April. This will help meet the growing seasonal demand for oil on the domestic market without reducing its exports. At the same time, many were surprised by the sluggish reaction of the world media to the decision made - as if exceptional indulgences for one separately elected participant in global agreements are absolutely normal practice.


It would seem that the conclusion suggests itself that last year's oil war between Russia and Saudi Arabia was nothing more than a staged performance, which was intended to involve the maximum possible number of participants in the OPEC + deal.

Indeed, in conditions when at least a third of the oil produced in the world remained outside of control, it itself became, if not meaningless, then at least insufficiently effective.

Russia received from OPEC a somewhat unexpected, at first glance, but, most likely, previously agreed reduction of the restrictive quota. Evil tongues in social networks and the tabloid press are already reiterating that Saudi Arabia is now paying almost personally to Putin for the fact that he “gave the command” to go all-in on time.

Of course, it is unlikely that last year's confrontation between the two largest oil powers was really orchestrated. However, the fact that the Saudis now have to thank the Russians for saving Saudi Aramco is actually quite a reasonable conclusion. And for a reason, one of the reasons for the latest wave of price increases was the message that Saudi Arabia repulsed another drone attack on its terminals.


Loyalty is not for sale?


Another thing is that by saving a competitor and a direct adversary in the oil wars, the Russians, in fact, saved their own oil industry. And the Russians did not have to sit in the trenches for a long time, and surrender the markets to competitors, and close too many wells.

And even the United States managed to pull up to OPEC +, although the influence of President Donald Trump on the American oil industry (on the private - on almost all 100) was very, very indirect. Democrats shouldn't flatter themselves about this - neither does Joe Biden.

Along with the United States, as you know, there was a certain pacification of outcasts, like Venezuela, Iraq and especially Iran, who not only signed up for the reduction of legal quotas, but also agreed to allow more thorough international control over their implementation.

As you know, it was about suppressing large illegal, including just pirate, sales of oil and oil products from these countries. In addition, with the light hand of Donald Trump, better known as the destroyer of all treaties and deals, "connection" to OPEC + Mexico.

Mexican supplies largely ensured an enviably low level of gasoline prices in the United States, freeing the federal treasury from the need to subsidize them in full. In addition, it was Mexico, although together with the same Venezuela, that was something like the last bastion in that fortress, which for many years was built by a supporter of a completely free market for hydrocarbons.

Now we can simply forget about the last hints of oil and gas freedom, which is very (we admit) risky. However, all these topics, as can be seen from the publications after the March rally of pioneers and pensioners from OPEC, are no longer too enthralling for the sofa "oil and gas analysts."

But despite the relative silence in the media, there are a number of experts who are convinced that OPEC and its allies on March 4 really shocked the market. It is difficult to agree, though, that the market was really asleep and saw when the cartel would start lifting the limits to meet the growing demand.

After the price shock a year ago, which was reflected in the oil war with Saudi Arabia and Russia, OPEC, together with its partners, introduced such restrictions on the volume of production that were not in stories... As we can see, this helped bring prices back to the level before the pandemic.

Decrease decrease


How to assess the current decision to maintain production restrictions?

It seems that either as an attempt to achieve depletion of reserves due to a shortage of supply. Or as a sober assessment of the dubious prospects for an increase in demand.

The oil cartel, judging by the results of the March meeting, seems to have little faith in the fact that the economic recession is really coming to an end. And the indulgence for Russia may simply be a response to its concern that maintaining quotas would give competitors an edge by allowing them to grab market share.

Interestingly, the competitors are not unknown pirates, not quietly dumping Venezuela, not Iran with Iraq, but American shale companies, which (sorry for repeating) neither Trump nor Biden.

OPEC +: a counter plan for Russia

And although there are great doubts that shale producers are, in general, now capable of increasing production, it was decided to calm the Russians down. Moreover, Russia (according to unconfirmed reports) received some assurances that the excess oil produced, most likely, will not be thrown out to the external market.

It seems that Moscow could thus make it clear that they are seriously concerned about the upward trend in domestic gasoline prices and are ready to maneuver exports and supplies to their refineries, and then to gas stations.

At the same time, OPEC did not begin to oppose Russia with reminders that the number of drilling rigs currently in operation in the United States is clearly not enough to produce 13 million barrels of oil per day, as it was in 2019.

However, it is high time to return to the assessments of the situation made by the representative of the Vitol group.

Max Müller believes that

“Long-term growth in demand in China has not yet reached full strength.

China will steadily increase its demand for fossil fuels. ”

So the reduction of the restrictive OPEC + quotas is no longer only for Russia - it's only a matter of time.
Author:
Photos used:
finversia.ru, neftegaz.ru, eadaily.com, esquire.ru
39 comments
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  1. The leader of the Redskins
    The leader of the Redskins 11 March 2021 12: 05
    +4
    It seems they explained everything, put it on the shelves .... But I just can't understand why our gasoline is getting more expensive and doesn't increase in the wallet? request
    1. Machito
      Machito 11 March 2021 12: 18
      0
      So Medvedev explained everything: There is no money, but you are holding on.
      1. antivirus
        antivirus 11 March 2021 12: 39
        -1
        The bearded man wanted to say - don't hold on to that. you need to hold on correctly.
        1. Machito
          Machito 11 March 2021 13: 02
          +3
          Quote: antivirus
          The bearded man wanted to say - don't hold on to that. you need to hold on correctly.

          Yeah, understand and forgive. Bearded man. laughing
    2. Free wind
      Free wind 11 March 2021 12: 21
      +2
      What's incomprehensible? Stability in the wallet, there is nothing. lol
      1. Machito
        Machito 11 March 2021 13: 04
        +2
        Quote: Free Wind
        What's incomprehensible? Stability in the wallet, there is nothing. lol

        But there is no need to puzzle over what to buy. I'm going so as not to die. am
    3. Roman070280
      Roman070280 11 March 2021 12: 27
      +3
      why our petrol is getting more expensive

      Not only gasoline, cars themselves, and food, and electronics, and most of everything you need for life ..
      1. paul3390
        paul3390 11 March 2021 12: 49
        +8
        If the guarantor himself has taken care of this issue - that's it, kirdyk, the prices will go to the ceiling .. It is a long-standing popular omen .. He has been concerned about gasoline for 20 years already. As well as the rise in tariffs. We all feel the result in our own skin. Sincere gratitude to his family for taking care of us orphans ..

        Since I conduct a type of accounting of spending by category in smart, just for the sake of interest, I can say for sure that if a year ago my wife and I spent somewhere around 16 thousand on average, now it is off scale for 23 .. And the habit of eating black caviar with hazel grouses I haven't bought it during this time .. I have caviar according to another article .. This is an ordinary daily grub .. Without any special frills. I buy in the same places ..
        1. Machito
          Machito 11 March 2021 13: 06
          +2
          The President ordered to stop the rise in prices, but prices, like officials, did not obey him.
        2. Overlock
          Overlock 11 March 2021 20: 18
          +12
          Quote: paul3390
          If the guarantor himself takes care of this issue - that's it, kirdyk, prices will go to the ceiling ..

          That's for sure! As soon as he mentions a problem, immediately it, the problem, is aggravated.
          Quote: paul3390
          A long-standing folk omen ..

          If he promised to help, he will definitely do the opposite
      2. tatra
        tatra 11 March 2021 12: 52
        +9
        The "invisible hand of the market", praised by perestroika and Chubais-Gaidars, turned out to be too thievish, constantly reaching into the pockets of "daragih rassiyans".
    4. knn54
      knn54 11 March 2021 12: 44
      +1
      Nazariy, maybe they don't make gasoline from oil?
    5. New Year day
      New Year day 11 March 2021 14: 00
      +1
      Quote: Leader of the Redskins
      only I can't understand why our gasoline is getting more expensive and not increasing in the wallet?

      To you
      Quote: Leader of the Redskins
      .. explained everything, put it on the shelves

      - Maneuvers are coming! laughing
  2. Daniil Konovalenko
    Daniil Konovalenko 11 March 2021 12: 10
    +5
    I draw the correct conclusion from the article, Gasoline will not fall in price in Russia?
    1. apro
      apro 11 March 2021 12: 23
      +2
      Quote: Daniil Konovalenko
      I draw the correct conclusion from the article, Gasoline will not fall in price in Russia?

      Gasoline rises in price regardless of the price of oil. It is cheaper to cover losses from the fall of the external market. It is more expensive ... so the price of raw materials has risen. Everything is correct. Everything is to converge.
    2. WHAT IS
      WHAT IS 11 March 2021 12: 26
      +19
      When did it get cheaper? Here is a bearded anecdote that explained everything a long time ago:
      1. Daniil Konovalenko
        Daniil Konovalenko 11 March 2021 12: 27
        +6
        We are waiting for a further rise in prices.
    3. Woodman
      Woodman 11 March 2021 12: 27
      +2
      Quote: Daniil Konovalenko
      Gasoline will not fall in price in Russia?

      It is impossible to be wrong about gasoline prices in Russia.
  3. Cowbra
    Cowbra 11 March 2021 12: 20
    -4
    a report that Saudi Arabia repulsed another drone attack on its terminals.

    Well repulsed, straight for a feast for the eyes!
    1. OgnennyiKotik
      OgnennyiKotik 11 March 2021 12: 32
      +3
      This is a photo dated September 14, 2019. Since then, they have established air defenses at sites important to the kingdom. Attacks were successfully repelled more than once.

      https://www.indyturk.com/node/70696/dünya/suudi-arabistanda-aramconun-petrol-tesislerine-iha-saldırısı
      https://www.elnashra.com/news/show/1346687/الحوثيون:-طائرات-مسيرة-استهدفت-مصفاتي-بقيق-وخريص-ش
      1. Overlock
        Overlock 11 March 2021 20: 19
        +11
        Quote: Cowbra
        Well repulsed, straight for a feast for the eyes!

        Quote: OgnennyiKotik
        This is a photo dated September 14, 2019. Since then, they have established air defenses at sites important to the kingdom. The attacks were successfully repelled and failed.

        Let the master enjoy, this is the only thing that pleases him - illusions
    2. The comment was deleted.
  4. Klingon
    Klingon 11 March 2021 12: 20
    -5
    this article is for a financial newspaper. VO has already begun to publish everything in a row.
    1. antivirus
      antivirus 11 March 2021 12: 43
      -4
      some hope that a lot of oil money, when in the future, will break off into the construction of aircraft carriers. IMMEDIATELY THREE AND 70 THOUSAND T VI
      in "Buryat" how will it be? but the fact that there is no place for such whoppers and no where to serve - these are not questions for them.
      1. Overlock
        Overlock 11 March 2021 20: 22
        +18
        Quote: antivirus
        some are hoping THAT A LOT OF OIL MONEY WILL BREAK IN THE FUTURE.

        It will break off, for someone, but for now ...
  5. Roman070280
    Roman070280 11 March 2021 12: 28
    +5
    Evil tongues in social networks and the tabloid press are already reiterating that Saudi Arabia is now paying almost personally to Putin for the fact that he “gave the command” to go all-in on time.

    Personally, Putin can and does pay off .. and the population depreciates the ruble ..
    1. antivirus
      antivirus 11 March 2021 12: 44
      +4
      Dengi - evil, good - smile. The sun will soon begin to warm.
      1. Roman070280
        Roman070280 11 March 2021 12: 52
        0
        money is evil

        I completely agree..))
        It seems that in the same 70s and 80s our people had to hammer their thoughts with this evil to a lesser extent.
        And then .. the sun .. and so much is needed .. Starting from clothes, meat, beer, and gasoline, ending with mortgages, furniture and a bunch of all sorts of nasty things ..
        1. antivirus
          antivirus 11 March 2021 15: 07
          0
          breaking ice at the garage today. the gate leaves have to be lifted with an ice pick and moved above the ice level. to open them.
          the sun will first flood the circumpolar fossa with water, the water will freeze again .... and only then everything will melt and bloom
      2. Overlock
        Overlock 11 March 2021 20: 24
        +17
        Quote: antivirus
        money is evil

        Money is evil, but it's bad without it
  6. rocket757
    rocket757 11 March 2021 12: 47
    0
    And this did not come as a big surprise.

    The ability to plan, predict the course of events ... is the ability to influence the final result.
    agreed, of course, but ... there is no other way.
  7. Stirbjorn
    Stirbjorn 11 March 2021 12: 48
    +1
    ... After the price shock a year ago, which was reflected in the oil war with Saudi Arabia and Russia, OPEC, together with partners, introduced such restrictions on the volume of production, which have not been in history. As we can see, this helped bring prices back to the level before the pandemic.
    Then the question to the authors - why the rate before the pandemic was 65, and now it is 74. After all, the oil price has returned!
  8. Keyser soze
    Keyser soze 11 March 2021 13: 07
    +1
    long-term demand growth in China has yet to gain full strength.


    The manufacturing sector in China is declining from 32% in 2010 to 26% in 2020. For comparison (2019) in Germany it is 32%, in Bulgaria 28% in Russia somewhere over 40%, but I do not know for sure.

    Second, the production and consumption of oil in China still largely depends on consumption in the United States and the EU.
    So, with the consumption of China, not everything is simple.

    Meanwhile, last week, discussions began in the European Commission on a complete ban on the sale of cars with internal combustion engines. It is likely that it will be from 2030-35, so oil consumption in the EU will fall steadily. In any case, in Scandinavia, since 2025, they will not sell and ride on such engines.

    In fact, the European Commission is planning to spend trillions of euros on the green transition, and here progress will be very rapid, and car companies are already planning to open new factories for the production of batteries in the EU.

    So the oil shines a gradual extinction.
    1. tralflot1832
      tralflot1832 11 March 2021 17: 00
      +2
      I am only for experimenting with energy. If after a little frost Texas lost $ 90 70 billion. Winter has not been canceled. Yes, if you are in the European Union, read the memorandum on the plans for the development of "green energy" for the Government of the Federal Republic of Germany. It will be entertaining.
  9. Revival
    Revival 11 March 2021 14: 06
    +2
    "reduction of quotas for the reduction of hydrocarbon production."

    How is that?
    Something strange
  10. tralflot1832
    tralflot1832 11 March 2021 14: 48
    -3
    Dear members of the forum, if you are worried about the price of gasoline in Russia, please name the brand of your car in your personal property. So for informational purposes. I already didn’t get pleasure from driving, I like it better when others drive me.
    1. Karabin
      Karabin 11 March 2021 18: 21
      +2
      Quote: tralflot1832
      I already didn’t get the pleasure of driving, I like it more when others drive me.

      For free?
      1. tralflot1832
        tralflot1832 11 March 2021 18: 46
        -3
        Son for free, friends are certainly not without this business. drinks
        1. Karabin
          Karabin 11 March 2021 19: 07
          +2
          And son and friends are not worried about the price of gasoline?
          1. tralflot1832
            tralflot1832 11 March 2021 19: 59
            -3
            Everyone has their own social circle, we never talk about "other people's" money. Talking about them causes envy, and this is no longer friendship.