Military Review

Donbass is on the verge of a big war

58

Alea jacta est



The situation on the contact line is close to an explosion - just bring a match. Clashes take place along the entire length of the border between LPNR and Ukraine. The intensity of the shelling is comparable to 2014. Already hundreds of mines, shells and missiles of MLRS are falling on the outskirts of Donetsk and Gorlovka, exploding at the Svetlodar arc and under Sakhanka. For two weeks now, evidence has been coming from the territory occupied by Kiev that Ukraine is pulling together echelons of armored vehicles to the front line. Ukrainian media are making similar accusations against Donetsk and Lugansk. In Kiev, they are discussing a new law on mobilization, much more stringent than its Soviet counterpart - it seems that a legislative basis is being prepared for the compulsory and fastest replenishment of personnel reserves.

The NM LDNR reacts to the provocations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine - according to the testimonies of the military, there is a permit for a "response". Judging by the publications in the Ukrainian media and groups on social networks, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are suffering losses. Moreover, the units of the People's Militia were given permission to conduct preemptive fire to suppress and destroy enemy firing points. How adequate is the "response" - we do not undertake to judge. However, on the whole, the tone of the statements made by the LPNR authorities allows us to conclude: the republics are preparing for a full-scale war; you won't be able to catch them off guard.

Decisive exam


The republics have more than once found themselves on the brink of another bloodshed, but each time the situation “cooled down”. Probably, this time the matter will still get off the ground - is it not for nothing that Kiev is pulling so much iron to the line of demarcation? The moment is more than suitable for Ukraine. It is not known exactly what is happening on the diplomatic front; exactly what nuances are being discussed behind closed doors between the participants in the Normandy format. But it is obvious that Ukraine and its authorities are completely bankrupt. This year, it is necessary to return the interest on the loan to the IMF in the total amount of 587 billion hryvnias, and the mission does not want to give a new tranche. Internal contradictions are aggravated in the country, everything is bursting at the seams. It's time to organize a bloody war, in which it is not at all necessary to win. Rather, on the contrary, a military defeat will give the Kiev rulers an opportunity either (in the event of a complete defeat) to flee and then portray the government in exile, living in stolen billions, or introduce martial law, tighten the screws in the country to the limit, demand a grace period for loans and beg for money.

Both among the military and among the population, many view the current crisis with hope. Many people on the territory controlled by Kiev have houses, relatives, families; someone just wants revenge, the final and irrevocable destruction of the fascist regime in Ukraine. Someone sees in a possible war a point of bifurcation, after which the republics of Donbass will emerge from the current state of "neither peace, nor war." In any case, both for the People's Militia of the LDNR and for the republics themselves and their population, a potential war is an exam, and it is simply impossible not to pass it. Of course, Russia will not allow the physical destruction of the republics. However, military defeats, the stupidity of the command and the manifestation of the traditional republican "creativity" can critically affect the morale of servicemen and the mood of the population.

How to participate?


An important question is how to be the numerous volunteers from the LDNR and Russia, who will be happy to be with weapons in the hands of defending the republics, but do not have the slightest desire to sign a contract with the People's Militia? It is one thing to fight, another is to march and shine with the knowledge of the charter. Thousands of people are ready to sacrifice everything to fight fascism, to fight. It is quite another matter to "serve", obeying the original Donetsk-Luhansk commanders. Do they really have to sign a contract so that later, after the end of hostilities, they go AWOL?

An equally important question is how will the admission to the valiant People's Militia be organized? Today this process takes up to several weeks - in the conditions of hostilities, there simply will not be time for this. It would probably be nice to think about creating some kind of special volunteer units. The whole question is: is anyone thinking about it today, or will the issues be resolved retroactively?

We'll see soon.
Author:
Photos used:
Photo from telegram channel LuganskInformServis
58 comments
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  1. Lech from Android.
    Lech from Android. 9 March 2021 05: 29
    +9
    Donbass is on the verge of a big war

    Spring slush is on the nose ... how the equipment will break through the softened black soil ... according to all the canons of the offensive, the roads must be passable ... therefore, until the ground dries up, the offensive actions of the ukrovermacht are unlikely ... unless NATO airborne assault forces will land in the rear of the LDNR.
    We are waiting for May, June, that's when the next adventure of Ukrainian politicians can take place.
    Although I do not exclude a preliminary air terror of Ukraine's drones ... similar to what the Turks staged for the Armenians.
    1. Old tanker
      Old tanker 9 March 2021 06: 45
      +12
      The article is unfounded whine. No figures, no specific facts, no disclosure of the real situation. Some general phrases.
      1. The leader of the Redskins
        The leader of the Redskins 9 March 2021 08: 23
        +1
        Well, the author feels something, but he cannot express it!) So let's copy what is written in the agit methods. Moreover, a win-win option - there will be no exacerbation, no one will remember. And if it happens (God forbid), you can proudly puff out your chest: "I told you so!" ....
    2. Civil
      Civil 9 March 2021 07: 19
      +8
      The escalation of the war in Donbass is inevitable:
      1. Economic, and from them, political problems in Russia and Ukraine. It is easier to focus attention on military action.
      2. NATO's temptation to take advantage of the situation.
      3. Elections to the State Duma, the easiest way is to mobilize the electorate in connection with the war. Although how many lessons have already been on this topic. In 1905, the war only cost what.
      1. dSK
        dSK 9 March 2021 08: 53
        +3
        4. Blockage of Nord Stream 2 (completion scheduled for September) ...
        1. mojohed2012
          mojohed2012 9 March 2021 15: 52
          0
          Yes. They will try to freeze the completion of the SP-2 until September by deploying ukro-attacks on the LPNR.
          The goal is that Russia is financially exhausted by investing in the SP-2, and a month before the launch - there are only a few kilometers left - the USA will put the EU on its blades forcing it to abandon the SP-2 because of the "aggression of the Russian Federation".
          Then: we will be left with a dead Nord Stream-2, into which billions of dollars have been poured, Germany will bow down and bow before the inevitability of LNG supplies from the United States in view of "Atlantic solidarity" and "Russian aggression", and the iron curtain will be lowered between us, especially since US forces are growing on our borders.
          1. svd-xnumx
            svd-xnumx 9 March 2021 19: 53
            +1
            With a surplus of $ 100 billion, it is somehow wrong to say that Russia went bankrupt at SP-2.
          2. Vladimir61
            Vladimir61 9 March 2021 23: 19
            +1
            Quote: mojohed2012
            Then: we will be left with the dead Nord Stream-2, which has been filled with billions of dollars
            Check out the list of EU investors and business investments ... it is not yet known who will lose more.
        2. Alex20042004
          Alex20042004 10 March 2021 18: 26
          +1
          The war in the LDNR is seen in the United States as a strong geopolitical move, which is not profitable to abandon. First, there is a chance to either block SP-2 altogether, or launch it the way they want in Washington - with Germany's consent to prevent a reduction in Ukrainian transit from Russia.

          https://regnum-ru.turbopages.org/regnum.ru/s/news/3209158.html?publisher_logo_url=https%3A%2F%2Favatars.mds.yandex.net%2Fget-turbo%2F2044659%2F2a0000016ed1b8b8a3400c72c6618f0e5985%2Fsvg&promo=navbar&utm_referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fzen.yandex.com
      2. Vladimir Mashkov
        Vladimir Mashkov 9 March 2021 12: 17
        +15
        I COMPLETELY agree with Yegor's serious business article. There is nothing to concretize here and there is no need: a talker is a godsend for a spy.

        Someone does not understand and disagree, but the war will exactly. Although it is possible that the initiators - the Americans - will delay the beginning. But no further than August. There is little chance that the war will be canceled altogether: all the circumstances are FOR it. And the victory in that war for Ukraine-USA-West is possible only a short-term blitzkrieg with an instant stop and screams to the whole world about Russia's aggression. The task of Russia is not to miss the beginning and to react instantly, powerfully, ignoring the screams until the end. There is no way to miss and lose to the Russian leadership: Russians and Russians will never forgive him, and for Russia as a whole it will be a major loss.

        And the issue is not at all in Ukraine: Americans are absolutely not interested in the fate of the aborigines and the colony. The West - even more so. The point is in American interests in Europe, which may collapse after the end and commissioning of the SP-2, which the Americans very, it is vitally important to ban at any cost, in any way. And comatose Ukraine with the war in Donbass will do quite well, and there is that way. A gain for the United States is possible in any outcome of this war.

        Sometime in 2014, I wrote that the war in Donbass is also a modern combined Stalingrad-Kursk battle in significance. I repeat this now. Only the fate of Ukraine after this battle will be much shorter than Germany.
        1. 210ox
          210ox 9 March 2021 13: 04
          +5
          I basically agree with you. But. Even after the introduction of SP2, the zashtatniki in Europe will not calm down. Yes, and about the combined battle raises doubts. Especially after Putin's excuse, they say, everything must be calculated and taken into account. And this is after the offensive was stopped in 2014. And as for public opinion, this is how it can be formed in any direction.
          1. Civil
            Civil 9 March 2021 14: 02
            -2
            And about public opinion, so it can be formed in any direction.

            There will be only one problem - the EU embargo on oil and gas exports from Russia.
            And this is the main goal. Knock out the main export item. Let me remind you that the banking sanctions were fully supported by the PRC, and investments in the yuan brought billions in losses.
            1. Old tanker
              Old tanker 9 March 2021 17: 29
              +2
              EU embargo on oil and gas exports from Russia.

              Do you really think the EU is insane suicides ?! Or did they write it for a nice word?
              By what means and in what magical way will they be able to immediately compensate for such volumes of supplies from Russia?
              1. Civil
                Civil 10 March 2021 06: 57
                -4
                Do you really think the EU is insane suicides ?! Or did they write it for a nice word?

                1. In war as in war, they will proceed from this.
                2. There are plenty of people who want to, the same USA, for example. For what they are strangling SP-2.
          2. mojohed2012
            mojohed2012 10 March 2021 08: 28
            -2
            Putin's reservation that "Ukraine may lose its statehood" and "We will not leave the LPNR without help" does not change anything. The desire of the United States to stop SP-2 at any cost - albeit by a war in eastern Ukraine - will force the Ukrovermacht to advance. It will make you scream about Russia's aggression, the consequences of which will be an iron curtain between the EU and the Russian Federation. This is what is being prepared, since the gap between a democratic and "bright" Europe led by the United States and a dark Mordor represented by Russia (as has always been the case in history) is beneficial to the United States in all cases. Then, due to the threats of the Russian Federation, the allies will pay the maintenance of US troops around the world and make increased contributions to NATO.
            Hysteria by the summer will wind up utterly. The threat to Russia will be inflated to incredible heights.
            They need a confrontation to rally the EU around the US and its impoverished population around the Democrats.
        2. RUSS
          RUSS 9 March 2021 13: 57
          -14%
          Quote: Vladimir Mashkov
          The West - even more so. The point is American interests in Europe, which may collapse after the end and commissioning of the SP-2, which it is very, vitally important for the Americans to prohibit at any cost, in any way.

          Causes? Do you know the reasons for the sanctions against JV 2?
    3. The comment was deleted.
  2. Jacket in stock
    Jacket in stock 9 March 2021 06: 22
    +5
    units of the People's Militia were given permission to conduct preemptive fire to suppress and destroy enemy firing points. How adequate is the "answer" - we do not undertake to judge.

    And it seems to me that it is the inefficiency of the responses that is the key question.
    If you drive the dill under the ground so that you don't even have a thought to stick your nose out, let alone shoot, then no aggravation will happen.
    It is necessary to put an end to any activity on the front line, then the shelling will stop, and there will be fewer people who want to fight.
    1. Lech from Android.
      Lech from Android. 9 March 2021 06: 32
      +8
      If you drive the dill under the ground so that you don't even have a thought to stick your nose out, let alone shoot, then no aggravation will happen.

      Here politicians intervene and do not allow the LDNR fighters to take this step.
      Neither war nor peace ... the situation according to Trotsky ... could not be worse.
      1. Jacket in stock
        Jacket in stock 9 March 2021 06: 44
        +7
        Quote: Lech from Android.
        Here politicians interfere

        This is understandable.
        It is not clear only what these politicians want. And this uncertainty has already ruined the idea of ​​a "Russian spring", the idea of ​​Novorossiya, and will soon destroy the LPNR as well.
        1. Lech from Android.
          Lech from Android. 9 March 2021 06: 52
          +3
          what these politicians want.

          I can't understand either what ... the situation of the frozen conflict is beneficial to them ... at any moment you can press the war button and demand your buns ... it is beneficial for the Americans and Europeans and Bandera's people and some of our politicians too.
          Only the people who live there under constant shelling are all jittery up to their throats, and how long all this will continue is completely incomprehensible ... every year the same thing.
          Sooner or later, this Gordian knot will have to be cut.
          1. dSK
            dSK 9 March 2021 09: 08
            +2
            Quote: Lech from Android.
            Sooner or later

            Recognition of the independence of Donbass in case of a repetition of 2015, it will bury the Minsk agreements, which preserve the integrity of Ukraine. Bilateral agreements, as with Abkhazia and South Ossetia, the introduction of Russian peacekeepers will establish peace in Donbas ...
            1. 210ox
              210ox 9 March 2021 11: 50
              +4
              Your words, yes to the Kremlin's ears ..
            2. sgrabik
              sgrabik 9 March 2021 13: 46
              +4
              Don't be ridiculous, what are the Minsk Agreements, Kiev puppets, at the behest of Western curators, have long spit on the Minsk Agreements, when the Armed Forces of Ukraine tramples on the offensive, you will also remind them about the observance of the Minsk Agreements and persuade them to stop their aggression against the LDNR.
              1. Achilles
                Achilles 9 March 2021 15: 37
                +4
                Quote: sgrabik
                Don't be ridiculous, what are the Minsk Agreements, Kiev puppets, at the behest of Western curators, have long spit on the Minsk Agreements, when the Armed Forces of Ukraine tramples on the offensive, you will also remind them about the observance of the Minsk Agreements and persuade them to stop their aggression against the LDNR.

                Exactly, when the Kiev puppets trample on the offensive, then Russia will untie its hands. Let me remind you that Russia is the guarantor of the Minsk agreements, which means that in the event of a full-scale offensive by Ukraine, Russia as a Guarantor can and must force Ukraine to peace and this will be within the framework of international law.
    2. qQQQ
      qQQQ 9 March 2021 09: 43
      +1
      Quote: Jacket in stock
      And it seems to me that it is the inefficiency of the responses that is the key question.
      If you drive the dill under the ground so that you don't even have a thought to stick your nose out, let alone shoot, then no aggravation will happen.
      It is necessary to put an end to any activity on the front line, then the shelling will stop, and there will be fewer people who want to fight.

      Unfortunately, this is not possible. quantitatively, both in people and in technology, Ukraine is much larger than the republics. The death of even one soldier for the LDNR is much more expensive than a dozen for Ukraine. On the good, this sluggish duel should be stopped immediately and quite radically, but most likely, the authorities of the Russian Federation will not agree to this, and this also has its own reason, we do not live in an isolated space, a lot of things need to be taken into account.
      1. Jacket in stock
        Jacket in stock 9 March 2021 11: 22
        0
        Quote: qqqq
        Unfortunately, this is not possible. quantitatively, both in people and in technology, Ukraine is much larger than the republics.

        What is impossible?
        Place an "anti-sniper" on each hill, hang a dozen or two UAVs over the front line, even the Orlans, monitor the front for 24 hours without lunch breaks, constantly watch a couple of mortars / howitzers to instantly extinguish dill when trying to uncover even an assault rifle, not to mention about mortars or tanks. And that's all, the issue of shelling has been resolved.
        BUT
        Quote: qqqq
        most likely, the authorities of the Russian Federation will not agree to this
        on which depends both the presence of these very anti-snipers and drones, and the will to use them.
        1. qQQQ
          qQQQ 9 March 2021 11: 43
          +2
          Quote: Jacket in stock
          Place an "anti-sniper" on each hill, hang a dozen or two UAVs over the front line, even the Orlans, monitor the front for 24 hours without lunch breaks, constantly watch a couple of mortars / howitzers to instantly extinguish dill when trying to uncover even an assault rifle, not to mention about mortars or tanks.

          The Russian Federation is capable of this, but not the republics, and this is no longer a civil war, the Russian Federation immediately becomes a direct participant with all the ensuing consequences. Therefore, they expect the Ukrainians to be the first to violate, it will not be otherwise.
  3. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 9 March 2021 06: 49
    +1
    The APU suffers losses.
    Losses are incurred, but atrocities continue. This means that the losses are not significant by their standards.
    Does anyone think about it today or will issues be resolved retroactively?
    In my opinion, the author's question is exclusively rhetorical, tk. if not to think means to lose.
  4. Per se.
    Per se. 9 March 2021 06: 58
    +2
    We'll see soon.
    Volunteer units are unlikely to cope alone with a large-scale operation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which will no doubt be supported by the EU and the United States as a legal action to restore "constitutional order." This is a war in which victory or defeat will be in the balance of not only the republics of Donbass and Kiev, but also the Kremlin power in Russia.

    Here, here "we will soon see" and will determine who is who (who's who).
    1. Nyrobsky
      Nyrobsky 9 March 2021 07: 38
      +4
      Quote: Per se.
      Volunteer units are unlikely to cope alone with a large-scale operation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which will no doubt be supported by the EU and the United States as a legal action to restore "constitutional order"

      I doubt that a large-scale operation will be supported by the EU, since Germany and France themselves seem to be the guarantors of the Minsk agreements. Support can only be the traditional singing of mattresses - Poland and the Baltic states. There are two interested parties in this war - the USA and Kuev, tk. the former will receive an additional reason to put pressure on the EU in order to stop the construction of the joint venture-2, and the latter will receive a delay in paying off the IMF's debt and switch the attention of Ukrainians from internal problems to the military factor. Be that as it may, the solution to the problem lies in the military plane and sooner or later, but war is inevitable. It’s a pity for people.
      1. Per se.
        Per se. 9 March 2021 07: 53
        +3
        Quote: Nyrobsky
        I feel sorry for people.
        Yes, I feel sorry for people. The referendum in Crimea was recognized, but there are no referendums in Donbass, moreover, they recognized the farce with the elections carried out by those who carried out the anti-constitutional coup in Ukraine, that is, they allowed the junta to legalize.

        Germany is still a de facto US-occupied country, and its special opinion is not needed. A fan of Britain, Hitler, at one time worked out a bloody order against the USSR, the Anglo-Saxons raped the Germans like cannon fodder, and Germany, as the anti-USSR.
        The coup in Kiev was carried out by the CIA and the US State Department, and Didier Burkhalter ensured the recognition of the junta in Russia, it was enough for this Swiss to visit Moscow. "Let them just try" remained words, they are trying to this day, and are already fully prepared for the war.
    2. Stas157
      Stas157 9 March 2021 08: 35
      +8
      Quote: Per se.
      Volunteer units are unlikely to cope with a large-scale operation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces

      This is true. But there will be much less volunteers this time. Both Russian and Donbass. Previously, volunteers went to fight for the Russian Spring and the Russian world. And now what for? To defend the Minsk agreements? Everyone knows the sad fate of the people's kamandirs (volunteers).
      1. Per se.
        Per se. 9 March 2021 11: 02
        +10
        Quote: Stas157
        Now what for? To defend the Minsk agreements?
        If Donbass falls, that is, the Kiev authorities will restore "constitutional order", the next in turn will be Crimea, which for the West has been illegally annexed by Russia. Our bourgeois do not need a "socialist contagion", in the form of the people's republics, and generally the motives of the "Russian spring" for the rest of Russia, but they will get shame and problems, not only in Crimea, but also in connection with NATO's access to our western borders. Therefore, now it will not be possible to sit out, either a war or a shame.
  5. tralflot1832
    tralflot1832 9 March 2021 07: 45
    -2
    Without the support of Russia, the LPR and DPR would not have held out for so long. If Lavrov does not talk for a long time, another department will talk about it. On account of the loss of statehood, they already spoke, it was sobering!
    1. Karabin
      Karabin 9 March 2021 09: 06
      +8
      Quote: tralflot1832
      At the expense of the loss of statehood already said, sobered!

      But you never know who is chatting. "And let them just try" they said, and about "the largest divided people." But in reality - bargaining. Only the price of bargaining is Russian life.
  6. Jacket in stock
    Jacket in stock 9 March 2021 08: 31
    -2
    In general, we have heard about the step to the big war for the 6th year in a row.
    But it seems that no one really needs a big war. First of all, Kiev and their curators, because they heard about the loss of statehood and hardly did not believe.
    But smoldering with periodic exacerbations is beneficial to just a lot of people.
    And Kiev, and Americans, and even Donetsk and Luhansk.
    As for Kiev, it is clear that the war with Russia is practically the only raison d'être of Ukraine.
    The Americans always have a reason to keep Russia on their toes, to inflict small and not so injections, to impose sanctions ... again, to mobilize undisciplined satellite allies.
    The LDNR commanders have to carry out their "weird deeds", for which they would have been dispersed long ago, at least, and at the most, imprisoned. And so the war will write off everything.
  7. Ural resident
    Ural resident 9 March 2021 08: 50
    +1
    It is the uncertain position of our leadership that worries us. There is no doubt that Russia will turn on and win, but when? To recognize the aggressor ukroreyha must "wait" for losses. Considering our actions in recent conflicts of our supreme leadership, this is exactly what happens. But during this time, many Russian patriots who are ready to fight will die, and there are not many of them there. For example, the war on 08.08.08/14/XNUMX knew about the attack in advance, prepared but still had to wait for the losses, so that the "West" then could not say anything and there was legitimacy. In Syria, how many militants raged, and only when Assad almost lost, then they only intervened. In Idlib, near Seraqib, the Turks ironed Assad's troops for several days, which they collected bit by bit, all our allies, by the way, were already beating reinforcements on the march, the best detachments were put in, we have silence, only then they swayed, turned on. In the same Donbass in 'XNUMX the same thing, first they gave the dill to crush the militia, then only the wind blew. This time, the procrastination could end very badly. I will just add that in all these "actions of meditation" Russian patriots, pro-Russian allies and all who sympathize with us are dying in mass.
    1. Achilles
      Achilles 9 March 2021 15: 51
      +2
      Quote: Resident of the Urals
      This time, the procrastination could end very badly. I will just add that in all these "actions of meditation" Russian patriots, pro-Russian allies and all who sympathize with us are dying in mass.

      You just need to Putin (after our intelligence will report to Putin that the war is inevitable or is about to begin, judging by the accumulation of troops and other signs), do as he did in 2014, formally ask for credentials (Federal Assembly, and then State Duma) to send troops to a neighboring country, bring troops to the border of the LDNR and Ukraine and declare just twitch, and that's it, and there won't be any war, after such actions they will not have enough darling, unless of course the brains remain, if not, then then amen to them all
      1. Black lotos
        Black lotos 9 March 2021 17: 28
        -1
        Quote: Achilles
        do as he did in 2014, formally ask for powers (the Federal Assembly, and then the State Duma) to send troops to a neighboring country

        This is a very often replicated HPP (more precisely, an excuse)
        The President has the right to enter / withdraw and other "lead" the RF Armed Forces since the beginning of the two thousandth. There is a corresponding law for a long time. For the species Sofred sometimes gives the right to introduce peacekeepers
        for example
        On June 7, 2000, the Federation Council gave the appropriate authorization for the entry of troops into Sierra Leone, on December 10, 2003 - in Liberia, on June 30, 2004 - in Burundi, on December 27, 2005 - in Sudan.

        And unofficially, the president can do whatever he wants with the Armed Forces.
        Officially, too. The completely controlled Duma never denied this right, and neither did SOFred.
        And since September 30, 2015, Sovfred has officially agreed to use the aircraft abroad.
        That is, officially and not officially, everything depends only on the president.
        In the Russian Federation, there is completely presidential power in everything; no one can stop him. Neither parliament, nor Sovfred, nor the Constitutional Court, anyone either.
  8. Bshkaus
    Bshkaus 9 March 2021 10: 29
    -4
    Of course, the speech is fiery, if it is said from an armored car, it is also +100 points to coolness. But there is one "BUT" Ukraine does not need the destroyed Donbass, no one will feed and restore the land on which you will not be hated. This means that there will be no exacerbations, but God himself ordered the Ukrainians to spoil their nerves and exhaust them. Well, about the volunteers, you turned it down. Particularly passionate for 6 years in the grave, and the new generation of violent has not yet grown up. The Russian Federation will not throw elite troops to save the Donbass. If they are killed there, who will defend their homeland from NATO?
    1. sgrabik
      sgrabik 9 March 2021 14: 21
      +1
      In the Russian Federation, a detailed plan of a military operation has long been developed and in the event of the start of a full-scale aggression of Ukraine, the overwhelming majority of victims will inevitably be from the Armed Forces of Ukraine, while it is unlikely that it will reach the destruction of the elite troops of the Russian Federation, which is why they are elite in order to be able to conduct the most complex and difficult-to-implement military operations , I think that Ukraine has not yet grown up to a confrontation with Russia on an equal footing in military terms !!!
  9. iouris
    iouris 9 March 2021 12: 06
    0
    Not Donbass, but the Russian Federation.
  10. Knell wardenheart
    Knell wardenheart 9 March 2021 14: 16
    -2
    Regarding Ukraine, you have a lot of fantasies in the "Russia-1" style. People in both Russia and Ukraine are organically accustomed to the mess and need a multiply larger and long-term mess for the state of such a plan to disintegrate. As for the use of the term "fascists" - I would recommend using it a little more carefully, because any state in the course of civil conflicts does not shoot pink water, which, however, does not make their government or the Armed Forces - fascist formations. At the moment, a huge number of Russian-speaking citizens and citizens live, are and work on the territory of Ukraine, in the case of "fascism" or pronounced nationalism as a state line - all this would end in a very short period, with massive departures, pogroms, an array of show trials and other "strong" things, only some elements of which we SEE TIMES observe in the mess that we have been observing for 7 years. Call a spade a spade - strengthening of nationalist tendencies amid civil conflict. Not fascism, and with the exception of some odious characters, not fascists. I remember well the 90s and how many similar "Nazi characters" were in our political environment, over time the passions subsided and they became much less - such characters and even movements are an indispensable attribute of any sluggish civil mess amid the economic crisis. Dumping all the oranges into one basket - you are just like the logic of these same fascists - who prefer to see the world in black and white and think according to the principle "who is not with us is in Auschwitz."

    As for the conflict itself, I see a pretty clear picture. As far as I understand, it was initially either not planned to include the DPR-LPR in the Russian Federation, or it was planned to do this as a result of the development of the “maximum program”, that is, if the entire territory of these republics was miraculously “liberated”. I believe more that the republics were initially viewed as a "bargaining chip" for Crimea, when there is a proposal in high negotiating rooms to gradually exchange proxy states hanging in the air for the gradual recognition of Crimea "de jure" as part of the Russian Federation (from Ukraine) ... Probably, such a logic existed or was formed in a single complex with the operation itself to return the Crimea, because it is well known that negotiations are better conducted when there is something to trade and where to maneuver.
    If we argue according to this logic, then the recent information that the Russian Federation does not intend to include in the DPR / LPR can be considered "de facto" the first stages of the implementation of such scenarios, because the situation at the moment is stuck in an energy stalemate for the republics, which does not imply any -or improvements. The Russian Federation is probably already fed up with this conflict and the 7-year hemorrhoids that erupted because of all this - so further use of this situation is also not beneficial to us, as well as maintaining it in a "freeze" - in this case, we incur image and economic losses ... So, unfortunately, all this will not be resolved so late ..
    1. Kronos
      Kronos 9 March 2021 16: 04
      +3
      These nationalist tendencies are increasingly strengthening not from time to time, but consistently and inevitably. The repression of the Russian language, the prohibition of channels, parties, opposition parties, the almost complete non-jurisdiction of nationalists for crimes, the imposition of a common language and religion on everyone, all this refers to fascism.
      1. Knell wardenheart
        Knell wardenheart 9 March 2021 17: 21
        -6
        What you described is called the "nationalist state line." If we take any non-mono-national state, these problems will be expressed in it in one form or another, in one or another scale and a tendency to fade or increase.
        Unfortunately, we live in an era when the "imposition of values" is a global problem that cannot be attributed to some polit. models or defame unambiguously with some savory word like "fascism". Some nations drive themselves into total tolerance, others stuff themselves with legends and myths of ancient Greece, others dream of some kind of savory historical revenge - the essence is the same, today they dance on the brains of ordinary people and their values ​​like on a dance floor, and agitprop workers in dusty offices decide how and what we need to think much more often than we ourselves think about it. However, the imposition of values ​​is not yet fascism. Fascists do not impose their values ​​- they clearly distinguish between "slaves" and "masters", and they impose some values ​​on the slaves, and others on the masters. We can observe this separation in some form in the Baltic countries, but in Ukraine this process is simply nationalist propaganda that does not divide nations for the sake of cannibalistic views. At least for now.
        And the fact that people are fumigated like bees and driven into "Ukrainians" is, unfortunately, the usual practice of cultural assimilation, through which many states passed (though in the past, I must say, not the best), including ours (both the USSR and Royal Russia) .

        While the OPSL is alive and well and Mr. Rabinovich is pushing fiery speeches - be calm, there is not fascism in Ukraine yet :-) You see, as such, "Fascism" does not play any games)) He has NO opposition, he stupidly kills it. Zero. Completely. Without exception, EVERYONE who does not come under the full control of the fascist govt-va are sent to rubber dungeons or suddenly and suddenly die, or some epic process arises out of thin air, and the "angry popular masses" begin to call and lynch. A year or two and society is "united as never before")) What we do not observe in any way!

        Problems with the judicial system are observed in all, without exception (former and current) states of the CIS - this is the essence of the legacy of the low professionalism of the leaders of the 90s and their desire to concoct the foundation of something new. In such a system, numerous gaps and interpretations abound, the issue of independence and security of judges and courts is abstract, and accordingly they will be judged as the card falls. This phenomenon also does not apply to fascism - under fascism there would be no courts at all) There would be show trials where there would be repentance, repentance, or, as an alternative, accelerated decisions by "troikas". But not even formal "competitiveness".
        1. Kronos
          Kronos 9 March 2021 17: 57
          +1
          We just observe any speech of an ordinary citizen against it is dangerous. Either they can beat and kill or be arrested. Even opposition oligarchs such as Medvedchuk and Kalamoisky began to pressurize. Demonstration trials with the next caught Russian spies or enemies of democracy take place almost every day.
          1. Knell wardenheart
            Knell wardenheart 9 March 2021 19: 25
            -2
            Fascism - does not press)) Fascism takes it and takes it, and the one from whom it takes it - then at the show trial, as in a trance, talks about how he sold his homeland, ate children and called Beelzebub and created a ramified organization aimed at a coup d'etat. A beautiful, written syllable. And then they hang him, for example. Or he "under the weight of sins" lays hands on himself. And all the rest - who are bigger and smaller, look at all this and understand that fascism cannot be denied, and even more so to argue with it. This happened in Italy, Germany, Spain, Latin America, etc.
            The whole world is full of "spy scandals" now - this is not an indicator. The growing paranoid society imposed from above is one of the instruments of consolidation in those environments where consolidation is in decline. When a huge and ramified conspiracy of "Russian-affiliated military" aimed at blabbling is revealed among the Ukrainian military, then yes, these will be "bells" that the cuckoo has gone in a bad direction, but for now all this is fair fuss.
            Z. and by the way - if I were in the place of the Ukrainian authorities, I would also press Medvedchuk - a person is quite closely connected with Russian politicians, the godfather of one of his daughters, if I'm not mistaken, Putin is, and Medvedchuk himself regularly visits the Russian Federation - in general, the picture is much more pronounced than that of us with Navalny.
    2. Black lotos
      Black lotos 9 March 2021 17: 37
      +1
      Quote: Knell Wardenheart
      I believe more that the republics were initially viewed as a "bargaining chip" for the Crimea

      in any case, if we imagine that there is no LDNR, then Ukraine would take up the Crimea immediately. And since there are inevitable clashes between the official Armed Forces, you do not use the principles of ichtamnets.
      Therefore, the north wind blew out, saving the clipboard and the possibility of exchange. Consider without him, Crimea would be under attack. So there will be no admissions to its membership. For this is an exchange fund.
      One thing is bad - Ukraine is not going. And the foundation is aging and unattractive. Only as a pain point.
      They gave 7 years for Crimea. Maybe they'll give it a couple more years. Ukraine will not agree to an exchange (not because she herself does not agree - none of the curators will give, even if they suddenly agree, even with compensation from the Russian Federation). That is, without the US and the EU, one could try to "buy" Crimea legally from Ukraine, giving it LPNR + compensation and preferences. Maybe it was supposed to be.
      Initially, the introduction of the north wind received a large exchange fund + the economic crisis of Ukraine (black February 2015) where very favorable conditions for the legalization of Crimea were offered.
      But the efforts of the EU + the US saved Ukraine financially + made the conditions for the Russian Federation to abandon such an option.
      1. Petrik66
        Petrik66 10 March 2021 15: 32
        -1
        GDP has already said everything. If someone wants a war, he will get it. Only everything will be like in Ossetia, they also frightened them with a super-powerful Georgian army. Here is the opinion of a prominent military analyst Felgenhauer before the war 08.08.08
        Pavel FELGENGAUER, military expert:

        1. I don’t know, in my opinion, it is unprofitable for anyone. All wars start like that. Who Benefited from the First World War? And there are always political motives. The Ossetians wanted Russia's intervention, because with our help they will definitely win. And then they will unite with North Ossetia. There are also enough people in Georgia who want to fight. They are haunted by the shame of defeat in the early 90s, then they prepared the armed forces, there was an understanding that they could roll the Ossetians, which they are doing. Russia may also have motives - a confrontation with Georgia will prevent its entry into NATO. And if Georgia is defeated, then Saakashvili's regime will fall, which many of us have not liked for a long time. Although it must be said that in recent days Russia has tried to stop this. The Americans have also tried to contain this for several years. The war could have been in 2006 or 2007. This war is not profitable for the United States, because if Russia intervenes, the West will have to oppose Russia - including those who would like to be friends with us. In the end, everyone will lose, one must think - in any case, if the Russian Federation intervenes, there will be a long bloody conflict with an uncertain outcome. This can lead to destabilization in the North Caucasus, to glue this war in the minds of Ossetians with the Ingush conflict.

        2. Our situation is bad now, because there are no good ways out. One is to acknowledge the new reality and begin negotiations to ensure that the south of Ossetia receives some kind of relative autonomy within Georgia. Moreover, it will obviously be headed by some Georgian Ossetian, which will undoubtedly cause discontent among the local population. Plus the North Ossetians will strongly oppose this situation.

        If you try to stop the Georgian offensive, then humanitarian support, volunteers and all sorts of "Cossack robbers" will not solve the problem: we need to send our guys, and they will die in thousands in battles with Georgians. Moreover, it is impossible to supply a large group there - in South Ossetia there is only one normal road, and there is not a single runway. But it will be necessary to wage an offensive war.
        I would not want to be in the place of Putin and Medvedev. Any decision they make will be bad. There are no good solutions in sight.
  11. Sancho_SP
    Sancho_SP 9 March 2021 16: 01
    +1
    Shaw, again? Every month one step away
  12. vavilon
    vavilon 9 March 2021 17: 14
    -3
    Since it was not possible to stop the construction of Nord Stream-2 through Navalny's puppet, then the artificially created war in Ukraine will definitely stop, but what will happen to Ukraine !? This is the least interesting for puppeteers and Ukrainian clowns.
  13. syndicalist
    syndicalist 9 March 2021 19: 16
    0
    Ukrainian fascists "preventively suppress" the firing positions of the LPNR, and the Nazis from the LPR "preemptively suppress" the firing positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
  14. Sailor
    Sailor 9 March 2021 19: 25
    +3
    This war will not do with little blood, and they picked up weapons and "instructions" were passed and many were fired upon in 7 years. And the worst thing is that the Russians will kill the Russians.
    1. nycsson
      nycsson 9 March 2021 23: 30
      0
      Quote: Sailor
      This war will not do with little blood, and they picked up weapons and "instructions" were passed and many were fired upon in 7 years. And the worst thing is that the Russians will kill the Russians.

      I have spoken about this many times. The perfect alignment for our enemies!
  15. Petrik66
    Petrik66 10 March 2021 15: 26
    -1
    Wars do not start with demonstrative statements and movement of equipment in front of everyone. The bravado of retired poets in networks and shows is only an element of self-promotion. These are shouts like "Hold me 100 people" and are aimed at the inner man in the street. The Ukrainians had to win the war in 2014, and now, when all the units have profiled, it is no longer even smart to frighten VVP and Shoigu with such passages.
  16. Lena Petrova
    Lena Petrova 12 March 2021 12: 03
    -1
    When they start digging holes on a massive scale at the churchyard, then this will already be the last preparation.
  17. Sergey Artamonov_2
    Sergey Artamonov_2 13 March 2021 03: 01
    0
    It is better to withdraw the entire Russian-speaking population from Eastern Ukraine than to get caught in this trap. They will attack from all sides China will definitely help us finish off
  18. Mahony
    Mahony 13 March 2021 17: 42
    0
    "how to be the numerous volunteers from the LDNR and Russia, who will gladly defend the republics with arms in their hands"

    The author is not aware that there is article 359 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation ("Mercenary") and a term of three to seven? (A mercenary is a person who acts in order to obtain material reward and who is not a citizen of a state participating in an armed conflict or hostilities, who does not reside permanently on its territory, and who is not a person sent to perform official duties.)