Military Review

US continues to tease Iran

38

There is no doubt that the headquarters of potential adversaries are developing strategic plans for the actions of the American army in various regions of the world. This is quite understandable and correct. Any army, even decorative, ceremonial, has many developed operations for various cases that may arise in relations between states.


For those readers who are trying to understand the way of thinking of the military, I advise you to familiarize yourself with the work of a Prussian general, a Russian officer, a participant in the Patriotic War of 1812, in particular the Battle of Borodino, Karl von Clausewitz "On the War."

Despite the fact that as a military leader this military theorist did not appear and was in secondary roles, his work quite clearly explains the essence of the war. It is precisely the clarity of definitions that will help a civilian to understand the essence of war. The well-known expression "war is the continuation of politics by other means”, By the way, from this work.

The material that we will consider today is just one of the possible options developed by the Pentagon's operational and strategic planning department in the event of an exacerbation of the international situation. Will it be implemented? It depends on many factors, including the actions of Russia and China.

Hit the "enemy of the second turn" ...


Most analysts are fixated on the confrontation between the United States and China, the United States and Russia, NATO and Russia. This is understandable. Interesting is what is in sight. It is interesting what they are talking about today. Meanwhile, besides Russia and China, the Americans have other enemies, excuse the use of American rhetoric.

They are afraid to fight the main enemies - Russia and China, NATO and the United States, to put it mildly. Too serious rival who can pile on the first number. The result of such an adventure can be disastrous. We need a "smaller enemy" to be guaranteed to win and show the world who his master is.

I use the term "enemies of the second stage" to refer to these particular countries. Simply because these are regional powers that have not yet particularly influenced world politics. These countries primarily include Iran and North Korea. Simply put, those who are not afraid of Washington and react to all threats as an independent state.

Let's talk about Iran. Why? The answer is simple. The US is re-starting the game in its favorite manner against Iran. Statements on the need for negotiations on the nuclear program against the background of the persistence of sanctions, threats and other traditional dirty tricks On February 24, this is exactly what Jennifer Psaki, a well-known expert on all issues in Russia, said.

The US patience with respect to the Iranian nuclear program is limited, Iran must repent of the plane crash ... Well, everything else is in the same spirit. At the same time, on the completely understandable question of guarantees for their country, the Persians received only the surprised eyes of American politicians. We promise you this, we promise you this, we promise you even this. What else do you want? Document? Why, we promise ...

The answer came quickly. Iran announced its desire to join the EAEU in the near future. We are talking about several weeks or months. At least that's what the speaker of the Iranian parliament said. He also indicated the deadline for solving this problem - May 2021.

It would seem that nothing terrible will happen for the United States. However, let me remind you that Iran is the 25th economy in the world. A country with its own sphere of influence and its own enemies - Israel, the Saudis and the United States. In addition, an important factor is the fact that it is Iran that is perceived by the Shiites around the world as the religious center of the world.

We considered this scenario in a narrow circle and, to be honest, it was hard to believe in it. There has been too much talk from the West that the nuclear deal should be rehabilitated. Now that the work has begun, the Americans have only two options left to thwart Tehran's plans.

The first is sanctions. It is clear that the Iranians are no less accustomed to these sanctions than the Russians and do not particularly notice them. The dog barks, and the caravan goes its own way. Well, the second way is war or state. coup. Short, victorious, with a change of regime and the establishment of a democratic pro-American regime. Which in itself looks quite fun, remembering, for example, Afghanistan.

A simple solution, even at the cost of the death of American soldiers


“The strategy pays for failure at one point, usually by successes at another, and in rare cases only by transferring its forces. In any case, the strategy must, once and for all, abandon the idea of ​​restoring what was lost by a previously held reserve. The more extensive and versatile its purpose is, the more extensive and versatile the strategic reserve is, the more unnecessary, useless and even harmful. "
Carl von Clausewitz

Despite the secrecy of the plan of attack on Iran, some things became known to the media, and some were simply the fruit of the analytical reflections of specialists. In particular, analysts of the authoritative weekly Defense News. Therefore, the proposed scenario of the outbreak of war should be treated as one of the options.

So, a mini submarine or any other drone of Iran is attacking a US Navy ship. The ship is sinking, and the Pentagon blames Iran for this. Evidence? Why are they needed? The hype raised by the pro-American media around the world and, accordingly, the formation of public opinion in Western countries is quite enough. This technology is now being tested in Europe. In particular, in France.

This is followed by the US response in the form of a large number of air raids, rocket attacks, and the use of DRGs. Purpose? Destruction of missile launchers, air defense and missile defense systems along the entire coast. Simply put, the processing of the front edge in order to deprive the enemy of the ability to interfere with the landing of troops and the deployment of the main forces.

All the forces and means available to the American army and fleet... Further actions of the Americans will be a copy of Operation Desert Storm.

Despite the simplicity of the concept, the plan was clearly not designed for modern Iran. Not for a state that has lived under the threat of attack for many years and is preparing for this attack. Let's try to make out what the Iranians will meet with the valiant US Marines.

To begin with, the funds that the Iranian army now have on the coast can make the entire waters of the Persian Gulf virtually inaccessible to the American fleet. Moreover, in the area of ​​destruction of Iranian missiles, ballistic and cruise, there are practically all objects in the area of ​​responsibility of the US Central Command.

Air defense and missile defense of Iran today are quite consistent with the threat. A quick and high-quality blow to them will not work. And here are the losses they will inflict aviation USA will be global. Air defense systems and air defense will turn the sky of Iran into an impregnable fortress. Accordingly, the landing will be more like recycling. Simply put, the losses of the Americans will be catastrophic.

But the most important thing that such an operation will lead to is the unity of the Iranian people. The Islamic Republic will become simply invincible. Simply because all Persians will rally around Islamic and political leaders.

Allies? To achieve victory, they can be sacrificed ...


“The one who will not hesitate to use all his means to constantly appear with the new masses, the one who prepares for war in the most careful way and keeps his forces concentrated on the decisive point, the one who, armed with such a means, pursues with energy and decisiveness the important goal - he did everything that could be done on a large scale in the strategic direction of the war.

If even at the same time he will not be completely happy in battles, then there is no doubt that victory will be all the more ready to lean on his side, the less his opponent has managed to rise to the height of such efforts and such energy. "
Carl von Clausewitz

For almost the last three months we have been observing a demonstration of force by the United States. December, January, February ... Almost on any day you can find some mention in the press about the actions of the US Navy or Air Force in the region. Those are B-52s, which flew around Iran after refueling in the sky of Germany along the entire perimeter. That is the appearance of American electronic warfare aircraft at the borders. That is the appearance of the nuclear submarine "Georgia" off the Iranian coast. And it continues ...

Another thing is interesting. Above, I have listed the traditional enemies of Iran. Among them are the longtime consumers of multibillion-dollar annual military aid - the Israelis. So, immediately after the appearance of "Georgia", an Israeli submarine came out to help her. This is a report by the Israeli online newspaper Times of Israel. That is, Israel openly supported the actions of the United States and thereby became, in the event of a war, one of the targets for Iranian missiles.

Why do the Israelis need it? As it seems to me, this is just a payment for that very annual US gratuitous aid for the country's defense. There is an understanding of the danger of such steps, but there is no way out. It is about the same thing that happens on livestock farms every year. The goby is fed, cherished, taken care of, and when the time comes, they are sent to slaughter.

To be honest, I have not understood Israel's ambition for a long time. Some boastfulness of his statements. Remember the famous "prevent Iran from producing nuclear weapon"? Instead of becoming indispensable to all Arab countries, with their many contradictions and conflicts, the Israelis chose the path of struggle against all. The position of the eternal victim, eternally persecuted, destroyed and unhappy ...

Even without much thought, it is clear that the Americans, if their plan of attack on Iran is implemented, will not want to sacrifice their soldiers at all. But an ally, and even such a cocky and impudent one, is quite suitable for this. Thus, the United States will absolve itself of responsibility for this war. At the cost of the lives of the Israelites ...

We will beat the old way


“Kind-hearted people can, of course, believe that there is some original way to disarm and defeat the enemy without shedding a lot of blood, they are also free to think that this is the real achievement of the art of war.

This sounds attractive, but in reality it is a hoax that needs to be discovered. War is an extremely dangerous business in which the worst mistakes come from kindness. "
Carl von Clausewitz

In one of the materials I mentioned the results of the strike by the Americans with precision-guided ammunition. Alas, it must be admitted that the defense caught up with the attack again. The ammunition development cycle went full circle and returned to the starting point. If the accuracy of the ammunition hit is now questionable, then it is necessary to produce ammunition with a large radius of destruction.

Humanity has not invented anything new in this regard. Low- and medium-yield nuclear weapons! This is exactly what Pentagon analysts reasoned when they ordered new low-yield thermonuclear ammunition in 2019. The warheads are to be placed on Trident missiles. And it is these missiles that are in service with most American nuclear submarines.

More recently, according to the US National Nuclear Safety Administration (NNSA), such warheads were created by Pantax. They are presented under the name W76-2 and have a capacity of 5-6 kilotons. Thus, in the operation against Iran, it is quite possible that such ammunition will also be used.

We know that Tehran has stepped up work on its nuclear program after the assassination of its leading nuclear physicist. Iranian government spokesman Ali Rabia said the Iranian president had ordered enrichment to begin at 20 percent. At what stage the development of nuclear weapons is not known. So a blow for blow is possible.

In this case, the war takes on a completely different character. Goes to a fundamentally new level. This will be a nuclear war, which will untie the hands of other owners of nuclear weapons. And then there are not so many options ...

Summary of the situation today


The quote that I will quote now refers to Napoleon and his strategy in relation to the Russian Empire, but it is quite indicative today. Including in relation to Iran. Replace the word Russia with the Islamic Republic of Iran, and everything will fall into place.

“Russia is not a country that can really be conquered, that is, occupied; at least this cannot be done either by the forces of modern European states, or by those 500 people whom Bonaparte brought for this. Such a country can only be defeated by its own weakness and the action of internal strife.

To reach these weak points of political life is possible only by means of a shock that would penetrate to the very heart of the country ... The campaign of 1812 failed because the enemy government turned out to be firm, and the people remained loyal and persistent, that is, because he couldn't work out. "
Carl von Clausewitz

The international situation has escalated to the limit. Nobody wants to give in. It is clear that the victims of the confrontation will primarily be small countries. By analogy with chess, pawns will be sacrificed. But will the game continue? I would very much like everyone to agree to a draw.

However, in the last week alone, the Americans launched three missile strikes on Iranian army targets in Syria ...
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  1. KCA
    KCA 6 March 2021 05: 22
    +2
    On the one hand, it is beneficial for us that the United States teases Iran, they will less aggro at us, on the other hand, Iran is our neighbor and any naughty ones on the border are not very useful, but the use of US TN ammunition in the event of an open conflict can generally lead to unpredictable consequences, even if Iran's nuclear program has not achieved success in creating at least one charge, it will obviously free the fanatics' hands in the use of "dirty bombs" and in general any dirty methods of fighting the enemy, terrorism and sabotage will become a new world order, whether I am in the leadership of Israel, very much thought about this, and there will be very big problems with the export of oil from the region, it will not do without the sinking of tankers, these are millions of oil poured into the sea
    1. Ross xnumx
      Ross xnumx 6 March 2021 06: 48
      +3
      Key thought:
      US continues to tease Iran

      It would seem, why are they in the Western Hemisphere in the Eastern Hemisphere?
      And everything is banal and predictable: "The big wardrobe falls louder." Well, the USA won the "Great Victory" over Grenada in 1986. Who was “worried” by this? Who remembers this?
      The United States has developed “not a strategy,” but rules of conduct in the international community:
      "Shit on everyone as much as possible." Gad (not to be confused with the character from Galustyan) Iran, they do not care at all about his reaction to the United States itself and their "tired of all" allies (partners). And the idea is simple: "Divide and conquer (as far as possible)."
      That is why the states are so jealous of the rules for themselves - the world hegemon.
      What can happen if you tease a huge, angry dog? You can't get off with torn trousers here - you can bite off the most expensive.
      Now, regarding:
      Instead of becoming indispensable to all Arab countries, with their many contradictions and conflicts, the Israelis chose the path of struggle against all. The position of the eternal victim, eternally persecuted, destroyed and unhappy ...

      It is difficult to find supporters or become necessary, guided by:
      “Give your brother neither silver, nor bread, nor anything else that can be given for growth; Give it to a foreigner to grow, so that your Lord God bless you in everything that is done by your hands on the land you go to in order to own it ...
      And you will rule over many nations, but they will not rule over you ... "
    2. Thrifty
      Thrifty 6 March 2021 07: 39
      +1
      KSA - the gringo has enough teeth to bare them all over the planet, in fact, but it does not interfere with knocking out a half, helping Russia the same Persians, in protecting the entire state!
    3. Aleksandr21
      Aleksandr21 6 March 2021 10: 22
      +2
      Quote: KCA
      if I was in the leadership of Israel, I thought about it a lot ...


      Apparently they don't care much, their main goal is to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, and all the consequences (of a strike on Iran ... for the region and the world) are already secondary ... although the main snag is not even the presence of nuclear weapons in Iran, but in relations between Israel and Iran. those. they need to sit down at the negotiating table and learn to negotiate with each other, they themselves, of course, will not agree to rapprochement, but if there is a mediator, something can burn out. For example, it can be China, which through "One Belt One Road" will connect the entire region with economic projects and contribute to the rapprochement between Israel and Iran through the economy ... or it can be Russia, which has good relations with both states and which is quite strong in diplomacy + if Iran joins the EAEU, then in the future it will be possible to invite Israel to this organization (together with Iraq and Syria + other states of the region) and also link it with infrastructure and economic projects ... therefore there are options for a peaceful existence, but mediators are needed + radical a change in the policy of Israel and Iran towards each other. And, of course, Americans should be excluded from these relations, i.e. the elimination of Soleimani clearly did not lead to peace in the region, not to mention the murder of Iranian scientists, the Israeli and US special services ... this is a road to a dead end.
    4. dSK
      dSK 6 March 2021 16: 22
      +1
      Quote: KCA
      it's millions of oil poured into the sea

      What is of little concern to Israel, it has other sources of oil.
      And the occupation of Iran is too expensive.
      war or state coup. Short, victorious, with regime change and the establishment of a democratic pro-American regime.
      "Carrot and stick". A massive, multiple attack by the Iranian nuclear power plant can "penetrate" the Iranian air defense and destroy the nuclear power plant. This will reduce the energy and nuclear "capabilities" of Iran.
      At the same time massive bribery of disaffected will "bulk up" may lead to replacement religious head of Iran on a secular, not "pro-American", but more loyal "Gorbacheva", which will remove the "destruction of Israel" from Iran's strategic tasks ...
      1. KCA
        KCA 7 March 2021 04: 31
        +3
        The myth about Iran's desire to destroy Israel got the same as the word with the letter X, as a result of which the whole world grieves for the murdered Jews, numbering about 6, I don’t deny, but where is at least a word about the destruction of the Slavs, in the number of times in 000 more? Or are the Slavs not chosen by God, not needed by anyone and not counted? If someone said something without taking the slightest step to achieve the goal, is this a contrived or true reason for the destruction of the country?
        1. Krasnodar
          Krasnodar 7 March 2021 11: 18
          0
          Quote: KCA
          The myth about Iran's desire to destroy Israel got the same as the word with the letter X, as a result of which the whole world grieves for the murdered Jews, numbering about 6, I don’t deny, but where is at least a word about the destruction of the Slavs, in the number of times in 000 more? Or are the Slavs not chosen by God, not needed by anyone and not counted? If someone said something without taking the slightest step to achieve the goal, is this a contrived or true reason for the destruction of the country?

          One of the goals of the Islamic Revolution, proclaimed by the Great Khomeini, is "the destruction of the Zionist entity."
          The Holocaust, the murder of the civilian Slavic population in the Nazi-occupied territories and the civilian victims of the Slavs (Poland, Yugoslavia, Albania and the USSR) during WWII have nothing to do with this.
          If you are so interested in history, check out Operation Concord in August 1941. Reasons, tasks, etc.
          1. KCA
            KCA 7 March 2021 12: 58
            +4
            Iran, besides statements, allows itself to bombard Israel? Or do you think that the air defense // missile defense of Israel is 110% invulnerable and will stop any attacks? How did the American RQ-170 completely fall into the hands of Iran, history is silent, but it is impossible to deny this fact, the United States even asked, exactly asked, to return this device to them, did they really study and could not do anything at least 50% of this? How many times has Israel attacked Iran? Who is REALLY trying to wipe whom off the face of the Earth, not on paper? You do not look like a cat, do not poop in my slippers with all sorts of nonsense, hiding behind the threats of the late Khomeini, mentioning "Consent" about anything at all, the State of Israel on the lands of Palestine was not even in the project, and only thanks to Stalin it was born, to live in Transbaikalia, the Jews, for some reason, did not want to, give them Crimea, but what about not somewhere in the possessions of the British Empire?
            1. Krasnodar
              Krasnodar 7 March 2021 13: 48
              -1
              1) Instructors of the IRGC at Hezbollah, its financing and armament, financing and supply of weapons to Hamas .. From the territory of Syria, there was an attempt by the Ksirovites to bombard the Hermon ski resort with Tornadoes. Israel's air defense is not even 100%, but if a missile is fired directly from Iran, the response will be equivalent, which the Ayatollahs, with all the existing joys, are not enough for complete happiness, and they understand this.
              2) Israel has never fired on the territory of Iran itself. Mossad stock is a different matter.
              3) laughing Jewish settlements, banks, universities and armed forces appeared among the Jews of Palestine long before 1948, and the fact that the Zionists were pro-Soviet socialists and Stalin had anti-British interests in the immediate vicinity of the Suez Canal only accelerated the creation of Israel thanks to the support of the USSR in the UN and the go-ahead Czechoslovakia sell weapons to the Israelis. However, the Czechs received the same permission to sell weapons to the anti-British Syrians who invaded the newborn Jewish state along with the armies of Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon and Iraq.
              4) What do Jews have in common with Transbaikalia, if most of them lived in Moldova, Ukraine and Belarus before the Second World War? ))) And Palestine was just part of the possessions of the British Empire, therefore Stalin "generally reacted positively to Zionism, despite the negative experience in Birobidzhan, which showed that Jews prefer to live in big cities" (c).
              1. KCA
                KCA 7 March 2021 14: 02
                +4
                And what did the Jews have in common with the Crimea? Was there, at least, in the slightest degree, a colony of Jews? But Britain was ready to simply buy Crimea from the USSR and make Israel there. The Jews, in spite of my neutral attitude towards them, I, as it were, do not divide people into nationalities at all, for some reason I did not ask the British Empire for their lands where they lived, but wanted to Crimea, and only Stalin sent them home, and not on land belonging to the Republic of Ingushetia and after the USSR
                1. Krasnodar
                  Krasnodar 7 March 2021 15: 31
                  -1
                  1) Close to their habitats and social connections. There was, moreover, since the tsarist times, with cantonists. The most famous of them are Trotsky's parents, the future founder of the Israeli troops, Yitzhak Sade (he was a physical education teacher in Sevastopol, by the way), etc.
                  2) I have not heard about “buy Crimea from the USSR”. They offered the Jews territories in Uganda and Canada - it was.
                  3) How was it not asked? Guerrilla warfare against the British was conducted, etc.
                  4) laughing It was Soviet Jews who asked for Jewish autonomy in Crimea instead of Birobidzhan, the Zionists were always aimed exclusively at Palestine
                  1. KCA
                    KCA 7 March 2021 16: 13
                    +3
                    Leiba Bronits was born in the Kherson province, Crimea, of course, is nearby, but
                    "At the beginning of the 50000th century, the number of Jews in Crimea was about 6000, including about 8000 Krymchaks and XNUMX Karaites."
                    This gave them a reason to claim the creation of the Crimean Jewish autonomy?
                    “In 1922 in Simferopol,“ Agro-Joint ”was created as a structure of the American Jewish charitable organization“ Joint ”, which was headed by Rosen. In 1923, he proposed to the Soviet leadership a project“ beneficial ”for the USSR to create a Jewish autonomy on the territory of the Soviet Union, which, in addition to Crimea, was supposed to cover Odessa, Nikolaev, Kherson and the Black Sea coast of the Caucasus (now Krasnodar Territory) up to Abkhazia. It was planned to resettle several hundred thousand Jews from the western regions of Ukraine and Belarus. In exchange, international Jewish organizations promised to assist the Soviet Union in obtaining large loans. "
                    1. Krasnodar
                      Krasnodar 7 March 2021 16: 54
                      -1
                      His parents lived in Crimea - somewhere near Yalta, cantonists.
                      Yes, no one claimed - they asked the Jewish Autonomous Region instead of Birobidzhan to make in the Crimea
                      By the way, AgroJoint helped not only the Jews, including during the famine, the Zionists did not like this idea, no one in the Soviet leadership or in the Jewish circles of the USSR took it, the Soviet Jews from the Anti-Fascist Committee seriously asked about it immediately after wars
        2. dSK
          dSK 7 March 2021 16: 38
          0
          Quote: KCA
          is the reason for the destruction of the country far-fetched or true?

          Netanyahu said Israel would not allow Iran to receive nuclear weapons.
          NEW YORK, March 4. / TASS /. Israel will do everything it can to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, and hopes that US President Joe Biden understands this.
          1. dSK
            dSK 7 March 2021 19: 18
            0
            Sly Israelis just like that, without a "setup", will not beat.
            They have already destroyed Iran's uranium centrifuges with a computer virus, remotely shot a nuclear scientist. And the "dispatchers' mistake" when a Ukrainian airliner is defeated looks very strange ...
      2. midivan
        midivan 15 March 2021 15: 19
        0
        Quote: dsk
        At the same time, massive bribery of disgruntled "bulk" may lead to the replacement of the religious head of Iran

        The fact is that the sincere believers who have been grafted into the faith since childhood and who have been grafted into the faith since childhood and do not need a secular head, unlike ours, who have been grafted into the good-for-nothing nishtyaks ... ceremonial actions, and in prisons there you can't buy bananas ...
    5. midivan
      midivan 15 March 2021 15: 06
      0
      On the one hand, it is beneficial for us that the United States teases Iran, they will aggro less on us,
      They will not have less feces for us for a hundred years, our benefit is in supporting Iran with our weapons of coastal complexes, anti-aircraft, etc.
      Quote: KCA
      even if Iran's nuclear program has not achieved success in creating at least one charge, it will obviously free the fanatics' hands in the use of "dirty bombs" and, in general, any dirty methods of fighting the enemy, terrorism and sabotage will become

      Excuse me magnanimously, but whom did you call fanatics? I guess that the Persians, and you were familiar with at least one of them, have you ever been to Iran at all? Personally, I am inclined to believe that fanatics are the American leadership, fanatics to the slaves and other people's bowels ...
  2. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 6 March 2021 06: 44
    0
    a submarine or any other drone of Iran is attacking a US Navy ship
    The Americans tried this option at one time, which was the beginning of the Vietnam War. And given the fact that they like to work according to old patterns, this cannot be ruled out. But if the Americans had the opportunity to start a war with Iran with little damage to themselves, you can be sure they would have started it yesterday. The use of nuclear weapons by the Americans can really lead to consequences that they are well aware of, although they consider themselves exceptional, and therefore not responsible to anyone for their actions. Iran is like a bone in the throat of the United States, and even more so of its ally, the military kept woman, Israel. Therefore, the likelihood of war cannot be completely ruled out.
  3. Thrifty
    Thrifty 6 March 2021 07: 36
    +1
    That is why the Persians HAVE the RIGHT on the development of their nuclear program, and the creation of their own weapons of retaliation, so that in the event of a war, American aircraft carriers would not receive radiation weaker than the Hiroshima and Nagosaki they bombed!
    1. SovAr238A
      SovAr238A 9 March 2021 19: 47
      0
      Quote: Thrifty
      That is why the Persians HAVE the RIGHT on the development of their nuclear program, and the creation of their own weapons of retaliation, so that in the event of a war, American aircraft carriers would not receive radiation weaker than the Hiroshima and Nagosaki they bombed!


      No, they don't.
      For no one has the right to allow this ...
      A very limited circle of people should have nuclear weapons.

      If Iran is an enemy - our enemy - this does not mean that it has the right to have a nuclear weapon in its hands.

      Because then nuclear weapons will be received easily and naturally: Turkey, Ukraine, Moldova, Lithuania, Algeria. Congo, Thailand, Vietnam, and many other countries, which may not be the kindest to our country.

      And the fact that in this case - the exchange of nuclear strikes - will begin as often, as well as the flu, do not go to your grandmother!
  4. Doccor18
    Doccor18 6 March 2021 10: 46
    +3
    I use the term "enemies of the second stage" to mean .... Let's talk about Iran ...

    Iran is the strongest regional player, the leader of Southwest Asia. If not for the constant "spanking", then Iran would have bypassed Turkey long ago in all respects. But even with all the pressure on it from the collective West, Iran has a serious impact on the region.
    But the losses that they will inflict on the US aviation will be global. Air defense systems and air defense will turn the sky of Iran into an impregnable fortress.

    Sounds more like agitation than analytics.
    "Unapproachable air defense" does not exist. The main problem for the United States and NATO is not Iran's air defense, but the same: Russia and China ...
    The entire macroregion is under the heel of the Democrats (Iraq, Afghanistan, Persian monarchies), Syria is dismembered, India is also playing giveaway, Pakistan (sort of like an ally of China, however ... not everything is so simple), Turkey (formally listed as one of the wrongdoers, but is it necessary ...).
    If the Democrats enter Iran, it will be a political fiasco for Russia and China. Therefore, the latter will not give offense to the "last anti-American stronghold" of the South-Western armored zone.
    So, the hot phase is excluded ...
    Thus, the United States will absolve itself of responsibility for this war. At the cost of the lives of the Israelites ...

    Sounds like a joke.
    And about a limited nuclear strike - too ...
    1. Nyrobsky
      Nyrobsky 6 March 2021 11: 49
      +3
      Quote: Doccor18
      But the losses that they will inflict on the US aviation will be global. Air defense systems and air defense will turn the sky of Iran into an impregnable fortress.
      Sounds more like agitation than analytics.
      "Unapproachable air defense" does not exist. The main problem for the United States and NATO is not Iran's air defense, but the same: Russia and China ...
      Here the question is not even about the capabilities of Iran's air defense, but about the same capabilities of the US air defense covering military / bases in the region, because Iran's capabilities allow it to reach them, which will guarantee large supplies of American coffins to their homeland, for which the American man in the street is clearly not ready ... In addition, a military conflict can expand its geography outside Iran, because in Iraq alone, Iran has the support of 120 thousand bayonets of the Shiite people's militia, which can create problems for the American contingent in Iraq and Syria. Russia and China will not fit into a direct military clash on the side of Iran, but yes, they can provide him with assistance in the supply of weapons and the necessary financial and political support.
      Quote: Doccor18
      The entire macroregion is under the heel of the Democrats (Iraq, Afghanistan, Persian monarchies), Syria is dismembered, India is also playing giveaway, Pakistan (sort of like an ally of China, however ... not everything is so simple), Turkey (formally listed as one of the wrongdoers, but is it necessary ...).
      If Democrats enter Iranthen it will be a political fiasco for Russia and China. Therefore, the latter will not give offense to the "last anti-American stronghold" of the South-Western armored zone.
      This is doubtful. In order to enter Iraq, mattresses made a coalition and prepared a strike fist for 300 thousand bayonets, and Iran in its current state will be stronger. In the course of the latest American military adventures and the results obtained, in the ranks of the US allies traditionally participating on the side of mattresses, optimism has noticeably diminished, and therefore it will be difficult, if not impossible, to put together a broad coalition, and fighting a strong enemy alone is clearly not distinctive. feature of mattresses.
      1. Doccor18
        Doccor18 6 March 2021 12: 11
        +2
        Russia and China will not fit into a direct military clash on the side of Iran ...

        I would not be so categorical ...
        For Syria, Russia "blended" ...
        Iran, according to its importance, will be more important ...
        1. Nemchinov Vl
          Nemchinov Vl 6 March 2021 17: 22
          -1
          Quote: Doccor18
          I would not be so categorical ...
          For Syria, Russia "blended" ...
          Iran, according to its importance, will be more important ...

          Mark Twain, once noticed, - "if you do not read newspapers, you are not informed. If you read newspapers, you are misinformed."...
        2. Nyrobsky
          Nyrobsky 6 March 2021 18: 53
          +2
          Quote: Doccor18
          I would not be so categorical ...
          For Syria, Russia "blended" ...

          We did not fit into the war directly with the states. The mattresses to the whole world have declared that they are "fighting" terrorism there, and we entered with the same flag - the fight against terrorism. The bottom line is that with mattresses, the territory controlled by terrorists increased, when Russia entered the cause, this territory decreased by 2/3. But, I repeat, we did not meet with mattresses in a combat situation.
          Quote: Doccor18
          Iran, according to its importance, will be more important ...
          Yes, fullness to you, sir. Iran is our situational ally, but never a friend. Our interests coincide only in terms of limiting the influence of mattresses in the region. If in Syria we defend our right to use and have our military bases, then in Iran we were immediately and unpretentiously limited to a short-term opportunity to use their airfields - a couple of times, for the entire Syrian company. It may not be a bad thing when a country demonstrates its independence in everything, but as far as your statement about Iran's "importance" for Russia is concerned, this significance is as vast as it is limited by our own interests. At the moment, our interests coincide. hi
          1. Doccor18
            Doccor18 6 March 2021 19: 20
            +1
            Our interests coincide only in terms of limiting the influence of mattresses in the region.

            Agree, for today, this is already a lot.
            1. Nyrobsky
              Nyrobsky 6 March 2021 19: 31
              +1
              Quote: Doccor18
              Our interests coincide only in terms of limiting the influence of mattresses in the region.

              Agree, for today, it is already quite a few.

              Not a little. yes However, they are not critical either, except in terms of limiting the influence of the United States (by the way, not only the United States, but also in terms of curbing Ankara's ambitions in the Transcaucasus). However, these interests do not coincide so much that Russia would come to grips with mattresses because of the preservation of the Ayatollah regime. This is about the same as how the Americans would want to put tens of thousands of their marines for the sake of some kind of Lithuania, which most Americans cannot find on the map. At the same time, Lithuania is important for mattresses only as an annoying factor that they will feed, but never die for it.
              1. Doccor18
                Doccor18 6 March 2021 19: 43
                +2
                Of course, there is a lot we do not know, and we will not know, maybe for a long time ...
                But Iran, the DPRK and, in part, China, arouse my respect just because they did not sell their national pride and independence for a pack of green paper.
                1. Nyrobsky
                  Nyrobsky 6 March 2021 20: 22
                  +2
                  Quote: Doccor18
                  But Iran, North Korea and, in part, China command my respect only by the fact that they did not sell their national pride and independence for a pack of green paper.

                  You are not alone. I share your respect completely. drinks
                2. Lara Croft
                  Lara Croft 8 March 2021 23: 03
                  0
                  Quote: Doccor18
                  Of course, there is a lot we do not know, and we will not know, maybe for a long time ...
                  But Iran, the DPRK and, in part, China, arouse my respect just because they did not sell their national pride and independence for a pack of green paper.

                  From what is known. China is a larger holder of US government bonds than the Russian Federation and until recently was the largest holder of them.
                  For Iran, we ceased to be "Little Shaitan" only after the collapse of the Union ... and up to 89th Iran supplied weapons to the Majahideen in the DRA ....
        3. SovAr238A
          SovAr238A 9 March 2021 19: 50
          -3
          Quote: Doccor18
          Russia and China will not fit into a direct military clash on the side of Iran ...

          I would not be so categorical ...
          For Syria, Russia "blended" ...
          Iran, according to its importance, will be more important ...


          Teach materiel.
          Russia joined in for Syria only in order to prevent the construction of a super-powerful gas pipeline from Qatar to Europe and Turkey.
          For, the war in Syria began precisely after Assad's refusal to give permission for this gas pipeline.
          Nobody previously was interested in Asand, not his son. no father ...
          But when the money of the Qatari emirs came into play, it all started.


          Iran's role for our security and our economy is negligible.
          Therefore, no one will stand up for him.

  5. nikvic46
    nikvic46 6 March 2021 11: 45
    +1
    The United States is irritated by Iran's intransigence. Iran responds to every provocation with action, and the United States repeats Trump's mistakes.
  6. Knell wardenheart
    Knell wardenheart 6 March 2021 11: 55
    +2
    Israel's policy towards Iran is understandable - Iran does not recognize the state of Israel and calls for its destruction. Iran is engaged in the creation of provocations against Israel, sponsoring and organizing proxies on its borders (by the way, Israel is trying to answer him in the same way) - but in my opinion, Iran is to blame for this enmity, because the Shah government recognized Israel and led with it deep activity - then the bearded uncles in turbans came and began to carry some kind of game about "we will grind into powder" and "must be destroyed."
    When a big neighbor calls on you to destroy many decades and muddies something nuclear in their zagashniki - just right to cling to any ally, the enemy of my enemy ... you know.
    In my opinion, Iran repeats the typical mistake of the Bolsheviks of the times of the revolution and the Guards - for a long time local political clerics ran ahead of the locomotive, declaring a lot of game, reaching out to the implementation of which hands were short - and thus shit more to their future than they contributed. If you have a good plan, it is better to keep it secret and calmly carry out this activity, like the same Jews who quietly muddied their nuclear program on the handle with South Africa, without yelling and shaking with a spear.
    As for the war with Iran, this is how I see the situation. The "Western world" and specifically its flagship, the United States, historically see their mission as a gradual interception of the planetary leadership of their model on the planet, roughly speaking, they want to "unite humanity" with such an octopus from the idea, economy, power and architecture of the world in the distant future. This implies that the world should not have "gray zones" and some kind of regional leaders - there should be one leader, and all strong regional players should be in his ideological and economic structures and within competently interwoven power and internal political networks, which imply a quiet replacement " bad "political figures" on "good" and do not imply any kind of "knight moves" like De Gaulle's withdrawal from NATO or the initiative that Erdogan has now promoted.
    The bottom line is that on the way to this construction, the United States is faced with the fact that their "mass" and the degree of consolidation of allies is still insufficient for a calm and planned absorption, the mass of their opponents and their activities also hinder this. The United States is trying to build up its mass on different fronts - from political, to economic and military. In the process, the degree of consolidation decreases - when the car is stalled, the passengers wander around with their minds. Consequently, everything is being brought little by little to the war-major operations, to the "stone crusher", which will clear the way for the implementation of the plan from large "stones." However, given the bitter experience of the two world wars, the United States understands that before getting into something big, you need to know VERY well the capabilities of the enemy, have a large technological and quantitative advantage over him and, of course, it is good to "train on cats" - on the territory of and technology-rich potential "main" enemy. In this approach, the goal is to at least pump up the loose loyalty of allies, the goal is to work out the key methods of fighting the largest opponents as much as possible. So, I suppose, Iran is being prepared to play the role of a train site before the new "big slaughter".
  7. Undecim
    Undecim 6 March 2021 13: 34
    +3
    As always with the author - a spherical horse in a vacuum.
    The material that we will consider today is just one of the possible options developed by the Pentagon's operational and strategic planning department in the event of an exacerbation of the international situation. Will it be implemented?
    Strategic planning is handled by the Strategic Planning Office (J5) of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, which includes a Strategic Planning Division (J54). Only I doubt that this lady shares her plans with the author of the article.
  8. Lara Croft
    Lara Croft 9 March 2021 00: 00
    +1
    The well-known expression "war is the continuation of politics by other means", by the way, is precisely from this work.

    Karl von Clausewitz has a definition of the purpose of the war, its author could also be mentioned:
    According to Clausewitz, the purpose of the war is to crush the enemy, and the means is to destroy his armed forces... “This is true both for the offensive and for the defense. The defender destroys the enemy's forces in order to go over to the offensive himself, and the attacker - with the aim of taking over the country. Thus, the country is the object of the offensive, but not necessarily the whole country: the offensive can be limited to the capture of one part of it, one region, one region, one fortress, etc. At the conclusion of peace, everything captured can be of great value as an object of acquisitions or exchange "

    https://bstudy.net/630103/bzhd/tsel_voyny
    Meanwhile, the complete destruction of the Armed Forces is optional in the war ....
    For example, if your goal is to contain a potential aggressor, then completing this task should be seen as a "victory", or at least as successful behavior of your military forces. Victory can, of course, include the destruction of the other side's armed forces. But not necessarily. The British won the Malvinas / Falkland Islands War, although the Argentine military was not destroyed at all.

    If you look at the list of all American military interventions - this list is quite decent - then the "least worst" can be called "Desert Storm", as a result of which Kuwait was liberated from the Iraqis. As a result, almost all operations of the US armed forces can be described as "military defeats", since they never achieved the political goals that were set for them.
    If you take the "best of the best" - US Special Operations Forces - it is impossible to give an analogue of Operation Storm-333 (the storming of Amin's palace on December 27, 1979 by special forces of the KGB of the USSR and the Soviet Army) or an analogue liberation of the whole Crimean peninsula without loss of servicemen.
    Russia's goal is to maintain the persuasiveness of coercion while keeping most of its military capabilities in reserve. More importantly, Moscow is comfortable with failure, preferring it to happen quickly and cheaply so that it can improvise on the next round instead of spending money on a failed plan. The Kremlin is trying to build win-win scenarios for itself, so that even complete defeat in the conflict is politically acceptable in the country.
    With the help of military force, Russia creates the conditions for the political process, using the very minimum of forces necessary for military "peace enforcement", instead of diving headlong into the pool.

    https://oko-planet.su/finances/financesdiscussions/404366-voyna-i-celi-voyny-sovremennyy-etap.html
    The military philosophy of Karl von Clausewitz and his opponent Ferdinand Foch was outdated in the 20th century ....

    The purpose of the war - Liddell Garth was best summed up by Sir Basil Henry in his Strategy for Indirect Action (1954): "The goal of war is peace - better than pre-war".

    see there ...
    The best confirmation of this statement is the recent military conflict in South Transcaucasia ....
    What to do if one of the sides of the war fails to achieve the goal of the war (according to the definition - L. Hart), this is indicated in the book "Strategies for Indirect Actions" (bought 15 years ago).
    Side that cannot achieve the goal of the war:
    1) The most common. Declares his surrender (loses the war);
    2) Announces a truce, eg: the conclusion of the 1996 Khasavyurt agreement.

    Now let's get back to "our rams". When the United States unleashes military operations against Iran, what goals will the United States have to pursue in order for the world to become better for them than the pre-war one?
    Everyone understands that the consequences for Iran will be catastrophic (disintegration of the country, loss of control and partial destruction of the Iranian Armed Forces and IRGC, destruction of the Iranian economy and industry, the emergence of reactionary forces, both inside Iran and in neighboring Iraq), but allies will also suffer (rather vassals) USA in BV, Is it possible to assume that the damage inflicted by the Iranian Republic - KSA, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait as a result of hostilities, is also the goal of the United States?
  9. Lara Croft
    Lara Croft 9 March 2021 00: 26
    0
    Air defense and missile defense of Iran today are quite consistent with the threat. A quick and high-quality blow to them will not work. But the losses that they will inflict on the US aviation will be global. Air defense systems and air defense will turn the sky of Iran into an impregnable fortress.

    What confirms this author's confidence in the above?
  10. IPC 245
    IPC 245 9 March 2021 06: 10
    +9
    US continues to tease Iran

    Someday tease ...
  11. Iris
    Iris 11 March 2021 02: 52
    0
    The passages from Clausewitz are more reminiscent of Dumas's descriptions of military campaigns than an analytical work. Blind citation of outdated military doctrines, coupled with the wrong premises, lead Mr. Staver into the jungle of an alternative reality.
    In addition, the author is about a couple of years behind the times. Israel signed an agreement on the normalization of relations with Bahrain, Emirates, Sudan, Morocco. Oman is next in line. The same treaties were signed long ago with Jordan and Egypt. Covert intelligence and military cooperation with the Saudis is no secret to anyone. Today it is easier to name the Arab countries of the region that do not want formal normalization of relations than those that have already signed such an agreement or are in the queue for signing, and ON THEIR OWN INITIATIVE.
    And, of course, internal contradictions .. "We will do everything necessary to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons" - this is how the Israeli prime minister's statement sounded. This has nothing to do with "the position of an eternal victim, eternally persecuted, destroyed and unhappy."

    However, the main false premise from which the author proceeds in his article concerns the United States. There are no malicious plans against Iran to "show the world who is its master." All actions, all demonstrations, sanctions and treaties, which were carried out first by Obama, then by Trump and now by Biden, are aimed precisely at AVOIDING a military solution to the problem.
    But today's clerical-despotic regime cannot physically abandon its plans, even if it wanted to. In a situation where anti-Western rhetoric has crossed the line of the norm and has become a pathology, any deviation from the announced plans will be perceived by the internal opposition as a weakness of the regime, especially in the context of a protracted economic crisis. Their own guards - "guards of the Islamic revolution" and will demolish, as it has repeatedly happened in such cases in the past.
    Once you sit on a tiger, then you won't get off of it.