US continues to tease Iran
There is no doubt that the headquarters of potential adversaries are developing strategic plans for the actions of the American army in various regions of the world. This is quite understandable and correct. Any army, even decorative, ceremonial, has many developed operations for various cases that may arise in relations between states.
For those readers who are trying to understand the way of thinking of the military, I advise you to familiarize yourself with the work of a Prussian general, a Russian officer, a participant in the Patriotic War of 1812, in particular the Battle of Borodino, Karl von Clausewitz "On the War."
Despite the fact that as a military leader this military theorist did not appear and was in secondary roles, his work quite clearly explains the essence of the war. It is precisely the clarity of definitions that will help a civilian to understand the essence of war. The well-known expression "war is the continuation of politics by other means”, By the way, from this work.
The material that we will consider today is just one of the possible options developed by the Pentagon's operational and strategic planning department in the event of an exacerbation of the international situation. Will it be implemented? It depends on many factors, including the actions of Russia and China.
Hit the "enemy of the second turn" ...
Most analysts are fixated on the confrontation between the United States and China, the United States and Russia, NATO and Russia. This is understandable. Interesting is what is in sight. It is interesting what they are talking about today. Meanwhile, besides Russia and China, the Americans have other enemies, excuse the use of American rhetoric.
They are afraid to fight the main enemies - Russia and China, NATO and the United States, to put it mildly. Too serious rival who can pile on the first number. The result of such an adventure can be disastrous. We need a "smaller enemy" to be guaranteed to win and show the world who his master is.
I use the term "enemies of the second stage" to refer to these particular countries. Simply because these are regional powers that have not yet particularly influenced world politics. These countries primarily include Iran and North Korea. Simply put, those who are not afraid of Washington and react to all threats as an independent state.
Let's talk about Iran. Why? The answer is simple. The US is re-starting the game in its favorite manner against Iran. Statements on the need for negotiations on the nuclear program against the background of the persistence of sanctions, threats and other traditional dirty tricks On February 24, this is exactly what Jennifer Psaki, a well-known expert on all issues in Russia, said.
The US patience with respect to the Iranian nuclear program is limited, Iran must repent of the plane crash ... Well, everything else is in the same spirit. At the same time, on the completely understandable question of guarantees for their country, the Persians received only the surprised eyes of American politicians. We promise you this, we promise you this, we promise you even this. What else do you want? Document? Why, we promise ...
The answer came quickly. Iran announced its desire to join the EAEU in the near future. We are talking about several weeks or months. At least that's what the speaker of the Iranian parliament said. He also indicated the deadline for solving this problem - May 2021.
It would seem that nothing terrible will happen for the United States. However, let me remind you that Iran is the 25th economy in the world. A country with its own sphere of influence and its own enemies - Israel, the Saudis and the United States. In addition, an important factor is the fact that it is Iran that is perceived by the Shiites around the world as the religious center of the world.
We considered this scenario in a narrow circle and, to be honest, it was hard to believe in it. There has been too much talk from the West that the nuclear deal should be rehabilitated. Now that the work has begun, the Americans have only two options left to thwart Tehran's plans.
The first is sanctions. It is clear that the Iranians are no less accustomed to these sanctions than the Russians and do not particularly notice them. The dog barks, and the caravan goes its own way. Well, the second way is war or state. coup. Short, victorious, with a change of regime and the establishment of a democratic pro-American regime. Which in itself looks quite fun, remembering, for example, Afghanistan.
A simple solution, even at the cost of the death of American soldiers
Carl von Clausewitz
Despite the secrecy of the plan of attack on Iran, some things became known to the media, and some were simply the fruit of the analytical reflections of specialists. In particular, analysts of the authoritative weekly Defense News. Therefore, the proposed scenario of the outbreak of war should be treated as one of the options.
So, a mini submarine or any other drone of Iran is attacking a US Navy ship. The ship is sinking, and the Pentagon blames Iran for this. Evidence? Why are they needed? The hype raised by the pro-American media around the world and, accordingly, the formation of public opinion in Western countries is quite enough. This technology is now being tested in Europe. In particular, in France.
This is followed by the US response in the form of a large number of air raids, rocket attacks, and the use of DRGs. Purpose? Destruction of missile launchers, air defense and missile defense systems along the entire coast. Simply put, the processing of the front edge in order to deprive the enemy of the ability to interfere with the landing of troops and the deployment of the main forces.
All the forces and means available to the American army and fleet... Further actions of the Americans will be a copy of Operation Desert Storm.
Despite the simplicity of the concept, the plan was clearly not designed for modern Iran. Not for a state that has lived under the threat of attack for many years and is preparing for this attack. Let's try to make out what the Iranians will meet with the valiant US Marines.
To begin with, the funds that the Iranian army now have on the coast can make the entire waters of the Persian Gulf virtually inaccessible to the American fleet. Moreover, in the area of destruction of Iranian missiles, ballistic and cruise, there are practically all objects in the area of responsibility of the US Central Command.
Air defense and missile defense of Iran today are quite consistent with the threat. A quick and high-quality blow to them will not work. And here are the losses they will inflict aviation USA will be global. Air defense systems and air defense will turn the sky of Iran into an impregnable fortress. Accordingly, the landing will be more like recycling. Simply put, the losses of the Americans will be catastrophic.
But the most important thing that such an operation will lead to is the unity of the Iranian people. The Islamic Republic will become simply invincible. Simply because all Persians will rally around Islamic and political leaders.
Allies? To achieve victory, they can be sacrificed ...
If even at the same time he will not be completely happy in battles, then there is no doubt that victory will be all the more ready to lean on his side, the less his opponent has managed to rise to the height of such efforts and such energy. "
Carl von Clausewitz
For almost the last three months we have been observing a demonstration of force by the United States. December, January, February ... Almost on any day you can find some mention in the press about the actions of the US Navy or Air Force in the region. Those are B-52s, which flew around Iran after refueling in the sky of Germany along the entire perimeter. That is the appearance of American electronic warfare aircraft at the borders. That is the appearance of the nuclear submarine "Georgia" off the Iranian coast. And it continues ...
Another thing is interesting. Above, I have listed the traditional enemies of Iran. Among them are the longtime consumers of multibillion-dollar annual military aid - the Israelis. So, immediately after the appearance of "Georgia", an Israeli submarine came out to help her. This is a report by the Israeli online newspaper Times of Israel. That is, Israel openly supported the actions of the United States and thereby became, in the event of a war, one of the targets for Iranian missiles.
Why do the Israelis need it? As it seems to me, this is just a payment for that very annual US gratuitous aid for the country's defense. There is an understanding of the danger of such steps, but there is no way out. It is about the same thing that happens on livestock farms every year. The goby is fed, cherished, taken care of, and when the time comes, they are sent to slaughter.
To be honest, I have not understood Israel's ambition for a long time. Some boastfulness of his statements. Remember the famous "prevent Iran from producing nuclear weapon"? Instead of becoming indispensable to all Arab countries, with their many contradictions and conflicts, the Israelis chose the path of struggle against all. The position of the eternal victim, eternally persecuted, destroyed and unhappy ...
Even without much thought, it is clear that the Americans, if their plan of attack on Iran is implemented, will not want to sacrifice their soldiers at all. But an ally, and even such a cocky and impudent one, is quite suitable for this. Thus, the United States will absolve itself of responsibility for this war. At the cost of the lives of the Israelites ...
We will beat the old way
This sounds attractive, but in reality it is a hoax that needs to be discovered. War is an extremely dangerous business in which the worst mistakes come from kindness. "
Carl von Clausewitz
In one of the materials I mentioned the results of the strike by the Americans with precision-guided ammunition. Alas, it must be admitted that the defense caught up with the attack again. The ammunition development cycle went full circle and returned to the starting point. If the accuracy of the ammunition hit is now questionable, then it is necessary to produce ammunition with a large radius of destruction.
Humanity has not invented anything new in this regard. Low- and medium-yield nuclear weapons! This is exactly what Pentagon analysts reasoned when they ordered new low-yield thermonuclear ammunition in 2019. The warheads are to be placed on Trident missiles. And it is these missiles that are in service with most American nuclear submarines.
More recently, according to the US National Nuclear Safety Administration (NNSA), such warheads were created by Pantax. They are presented under the name W76-2 and have a capacity of 5-6 kilotons. Thus, in the operation against Iran, it is quite possible that such ammunition will also be used.
We know that Tehran has stepped up work on its nuclear program after the assassination of its leading nuclear physicist. Iranian government spokesman Ali Rabia said the Iranian president had ordered enrichment to begin at 20 percent. At what stage the development of nuclear weapons is not known. So a blow for blow is possible.
In this case, the war takes on a completely different character. Goes to a fundamentally new level. This will be a nuclear war, which will untie the hands of other owners of nuclear weapons. And then there are not so many options ...
Summary of the situation today
The quote that I will quote now refers to Napoleon and his strategy in relation to the Russian Empire, but it is quite indicative today. Including in relation to Iran. Replace the word Russia with the Islamic Republic of Iran, and everything will fall into place.
To reach these weak points of political life is possible only by means of a shock that would penetrate to the very heart of the country ... The campaign of 1812 failed because the enemy government turned out to be firm, and the people remained loyal and persistent, that is, because he couldn't work out. "
Carl von Clausewitz
The international situation has escalated to the limit. Nobody wants to give in. It is clear that the victims of the confrontation will primarily be small countries. By analogy with chess, pawns will be sacrificed. But will the game continue? I would very much like everyone to agree to a draw.
However, in the last week alone, the Americans launched three missile strikes on Iranian army targets in Syria ...
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