They started playing against us on many boards at once
The Internet is simply teeming with an abundance of materials about Donbass.
Supporters of "nezalezhnoy" daily report on shelling of positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. True, the factual material is not provided. Most often under the pretext of secrecy.
Republicans keep up with their counterparts and also talk about battles, shelling, and casualties. True, unlike the opposing side, the Donetsk residents' messages have a clear texture, indicating the locations of the shelling, the units participating in the shelling, and the names of the commanders.
Both sides are actively promoting the idea of an imminent offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to Donetsk and Lugansk.
However, those who follow what is happening from the outside and consider all the actions and messages of opponents understand that there will be no serious aggravation. Just as there will be no offensive on the dry ground. And not only because Zelenskiy will be afraid of Putin's warning.
Zelensky is a puppet in the hands of Europe and (to a greater extent) the United States. This means that it will not be decided in Kiev at all.
What is happening today on the line of contact is just an imitation of activity for internal consumption. The Armed Forces of Ukraine, which, when listing the units and subdivisions located in the east of Ukraine, looks quite impressive against the background of the Republican corps, is in fact a rather miserable sight.
In subdivisions and units, the shortage of personnel is up to 30% or more. Especially on the line of contact. This is clearly not enough for the offensive. Even with the use of purchased UAVs. Although, according to the statement of Colonel Basurin, the Republicans are ready to meet the Turkish Drones. That is, in the corps there are means for their successful destruction.
Ukraine does not carry out the measures necessary to create a powerful shock fist. There is no remanufacturing of parts. There is no creation of ammunition and fuel depots. No new tank divisions. The artillery is in the same condition as before.
Hence, even if any offensive operation starts in those directions where it is possible (and these directions are known to any commander of republican units), the Armed Forces of Ukraine will come across a well-organized, echeloned defense, which will grind Ukrainian units no worse than millstones of grain.
And who will attack next? Where will Ukrainian commanders get replenishment from? Where is the equipment and weapons that will be transferred to the advancing units in a short time?
Here you don't have to be a strategist at all to understand that the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will end not with just another cauldron, but with a global drape. At least to the borders of Donetsk and Lugansk regions.
Danger is not where it is expected
The situation in Donbass must be viewed from a slightly different point of view.
Many times analysts have made a completely correct conclusion that the Donbass (especially with the population) is not needed in modern Ukraine. If only because millions of new voters will significantly change the political situation at elections of any level. And there is nothing for Kiev to restore Donbass.
Americans and Europeans? What for?
They are quite satisfied that competitors have been eliminated. That the industry and extractive industries are in decline. That Ukraine is torn apart, therefore, cannot claim membership in NATO.
The West is not satisfied with only one thing - the existence of Russia, which has a good army.
It is precisely from the positions of the EU and the US that the situation must be viewed.
The first question to be answered is why the situation needs to be aggravated?
The answer is obvious. What is needed is not an aggravation in the Donbass, which everyone is tired of and no longer scares anyone. It is necessary to aggravate relations between Ukraine and Russia. Not talking "in general" in TCG, but exacerbation. Better military!
Now the last important question - where is it easy to create such an aggravation? And exactly the place that the Ukrainian military is openly pointing to as a theater of military operations in the near future?
Crimea!
It is there that the next "Ukrainian ships" should be expected. The peninsula today is ideal for provocation.
I'll try to work for the Ukrainian General Staff.
An attack by ground forces is out of the question. The weight classes of the armies are too different.
Aviation?
This is already something from the realm of anecdotes.
Fleet?
Sorry for the rubber boats.
UAV?
Even the Americans are afraid of the electronic warfare of the Russian army.
What is left?
Rocket strike!
For two years the Ukrainians have been shouting about new missiles for the "Vilkha" (Alder) MLRS. Those same corrected missiles with a firing range of up to 200 km. Now imagine testing these missiles, exercising with these missiles, or something similar. And for some reason the rockets are flying towards the Crimea.
What will happen next? Specifically at the time of the shooting.
It is clear that the missiles will be intercepted and destroyed by the Russian missile defense system. But what's next?
The commander must decide to destroy the enemy launchers, since this is a direct attack on Russia. Or not to make such a decision, but to report upstairs and wait for a decision.
In any case, we are a loser.
Let's hit back - we'll give the West a reason to howl about poor Ukraine, which was attacked by this wild bear.
We will not hit - we are battering people who can only frighten with their destroyed Armed Forces. It is clear that in any case there will be no full-scale war, but a serious wave will rise.
Why and why the USA needs it
Yes, exactly what you need. Even necessary at the moment.
Try to understand.
It seems to me that it is necessary to start with the "world master," which the Americans consider themselves to be.
If you look at the speeches of the American president and other officials today, you will notice a significant change in the rhetoric of the Americans towards Russia. Until recently (before the events in Syria), representatives of the American elite always emphasized their military superiority over Russia.
Today they talk about anything other than military superiority. The fact that Trump has declared China the number one enemy is temporary. Simply because for the previous president, the main thing was after all the economy and the stabilization of the United States itself.
For the current president, the security of the US territory again becomes the main one. Only Russia can guarantee serious damage to the United States. Precisely by hitting the territory of the States Moreover, Washington understands that the United States has lagged behind the Russian Federation for a decent amount of time in armaments. And systems that until recently were quite combat-ready are now difficult to use.
By the way, about systems.
Yesterday I watched the message and photos posted on the official website of the Iranian Ministry of Defense. Photos of the base that was hit with a high-precision weapons Americans. The most important facility at the base, the checkpoint, was destroyed. And some wooden trailer is damaged. The rest - garbage and some lumps ... That's the whole result of the use of high-precision, expensive aerial bombs. Why did it happen?
For some reason, this strange blow from the Americans is very strongly associated with the assumption of a provocation by Ukraine in Crimea.
Why not?
The rockets flew. And we get an urgent message about a malfunction of the guidance system. Isn't it the 4 minutes that the American pilots needed to strike after the warning of the Russian representatives?
The USA needs time. Today the task of the Pentagon is about the same as that of the General Staff of the USSR during the "Star Wars". The only difference is that Russia has what it talks about, not bluffs. And this time can be won only by dragging the Russian army into local conflicts, into long-term wars, into the showdown of citizens of neighboring states. Ukraine is suitable for this. Especially in alliance with other "American friends" like Georgia or Moldova.
Why and why the EU needs it
In the EU, everything is simpler and more complicated.
On the one hand, they seem to have given up part of their sovereignty for protection from Russia.
On the other hand, it is already clear today that their defender is cowardly and will run away at the first danger overseas. In the same way, as well as the understanding that fairy tales about our own, European army are just fairy tales. If there is a NATO bloc, they will never create an additional army.
If we add here the need to fulfill all Washington's “wishes” in political terms (and, for some reason, all the demands of the Americans go sideways just for the Europeans), then it turns out - quite sad. On the whole, the European Union is well aware that it must reconcile the incompatible. Walk the razor's edge over the abyss.
Remember what is being actively discussed today in the OSCE and at the EU ministerial summits?
This is a question of the next sanctions on at least three decisions of Russia at once. First, Navalny. Europe on the one hand hears the threat from the United States. On the other hand, Lavrov's statements about the possible reaction of Russia to these sanctions.
Secondly, the response of the Europeans to the failed ultimatum from Josep Borrell. The Russian Foreign Minister skillfully "knocked the sword" out of the hands of the main European diplomat and forced Borrel to abandon pressure on Russia. Which led to a completely different situation on the European continent. Now the trump cards were in the hands of Moscow.
And thirdly, SP-2. On the one hand, the EU (especially Germany) is extremely interested in Nord Stream 2, since this will not only provide huge profits for the new gas hub, but will also fundamentally change the position of Germany itself. Years of confrontation with Poland will come to an end. On the other hand, there is a demand to stop construction.
What we see today resembles a student's copy of La Gioconda. It seems similar, but it does not look like a masterpiece at all. The sanctions that will be announced to our officials today or tomorrow in response to all our "sins" are also a "copy of the Mona Lisa". And Europe understands this.
In fact, the same Josep Borrell outlined a new strategy for EU-Russia relations in his final speech at a meeting of EU foreign ministers in Brussels:
“It is based on three actions.
Counteraction when Russia violates human rights.
Deterrence, when, for example, there is disinformation and cyberattacks.
Engaging in dialogue where we have interests. "
Counteraction when Russia violates human rights.
Deterrence, when, for example, there is disinformation and cyberattacks.
Engaging in dialogue where we have interests. "
The Europeans have a daunting task.
If we translate what Borel said from diplomatic to philistine, it turns out that the European Union wants to interfere in the internal affairs of the Russian Federation, pursue a policy of active containment of the Kremlin and at the same time cooperate where it is beneficial to Brussels.
This is where the Ukrainian question comes up.
One of the levers of pressure on Moscow can be the possibility of containing the enraged state adjacent to Russia:
"Give for give."
Summer will be very warm. And maybe hot
As you can see, the spring and summer seasons are going to be very interesting.
First of all, because of the actions of Kiev. Pushed to provocation - there will be a lot of blood and the question of
"Ukrainian statehood".
They will keep the zeal of the Ukrainian president - Ukraine will turn into a monster, where everyone will be forgotten
"Achievements of civilization".
Extreme nationalism as an all-Ukrainian idea. Terror towards political opponents. Saber rattling in front of neighboring states and constant threat of attack. Ukrainization in the most brutal way. And so on.
Ukropatriots' dreams come true. Ukraine is indeed becoming the navel of European politics. Well, not really a navel. So, the navel. Considering that the Ukrainians themselves are only pawns in this game. And the destiny of pawns, alas, is to be victims. To die heroically for the glory of the king.
I have described one of the most likely scenarios for the development of events.
Relations between the United States and its allies with Russia and China are at an impasse. The new president returned to
"The traditional values of the Democratic Party."
But the world has changed.
And so much so that much of what Joe Biden is talking about today has ceased to be the key issues of world politics.
There are actually several options.
But the general idea, the general direction of building relations between the West and Russia, the West and China, is already clear.
Well, after a harsh winter, a harsh summer comes.
This is how iron is tempered. Heat and cool in oil. Heated and cooled ...
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