Military Review

Afghanistan will be the arena of struggle again

21

Afghan…


For a fairly large number of Russians, this word began to mean not only the name of the citizens of a certain country, but also the soldiers and officers who, by the will of fate, were thrown into the heat of war from the well-fed peaceful life of the Soviet Union. Yesterday we celebrated another anniversary of the withdrawal of troops from this country. We marked the end of the meat grinder, in which the destinies of a whole generation of Soviet people were broken.

But there is another country, which also has its own Afghans. Precisely in the Soviet sense of the word. These are American soldiers who are still fighting one of the longest wars the United States has ever fought. The very limited contingent of the American army, which, although it does not conduct active hostilities, periodically participates in clashes with the mujahideen.

The attitude to this war in the United States itself today is about the same as in the 80s of the last century in the USSR. Most Americans are demanding that this war be ended at last. They demand to return the American soldiers home. They demand not to endanger the lives of Americans.

Troops must be withdrawn, but troops must be left


Perhaps, after reading this absurd sentence, the readers had a feeling of some confusion.

How can one simultaneously withdraw and leave the military in a foreign country?

But this is really possible. You can withdraw combat units, but in their place, leave support, intelligence, anti-terrorist units and military police.

The fact that the war in Afghanistan "did not work out" for the United States was already clear to Barack Obama. Many have already forgotten that it was Obama who began to withdraw units from the most dangerous provinces. Without much publicity, without fanfare, but the contingent then began to decline.

The new US President Donald Trump also understood this fact. And he also wanted to end this war. But Trump's motivation was completely different. If Obama believed that the war was futile. And it's just stupid to spend budget money.

Then Donald Trump clearly followed his line of strengthening the state from within. Let me remind you the algorithm of actions of the American president, which is incomprehensible to many even today.

In 2018, the first reports of American contacts with the Taliban leadership appeared (the organization is banned in the Russian Federation). Moreover, these contacts were at the highest level. I repeat, not with field commanders, but with leadership. In Qatar (more precisely, in its capital Doha), the movement's official office is located. It was there that American diplomats were spotted.

This message was quite explosive. Communication at the level of representatives of intelligence and diplomatic corps with the enemy is nonsense even for Americans. In the circles of the American intelligence community, this was perceived as a betrayal of the country.

Threats began to threaten Trump. But, be that as it may, it was in 2018 that negotiations began between the United States and the Taliban (the organization is banned in the Russian Federation).

It cannot be said that Donald Trump turned out to be a "reinforced concrete" president. The threats did their job. In 2019, Trump nevertheless announced the termination of negotiations.

But the situation has changed in Afghanistan itself. Therefore, after some time, negotiations were resumed. Again, without fanfare and fanfare.

On February 29, 2020, the parties signed a peace agreement.

The Taliban agreed to control and suppress the activities of Al-Qaeda on their own (banned in the Russian Federation). This was the main condition of the Americans. They do not actually control most of the territory of Afghanistan.

In response, the Americans are withdrawing some of their troops, reducing the number to 8,6 thousand people, transferring part of their military bases to the Taliban, lifting their own sanctions against the Taliban leadership (an organization banned in the Russian Federation) and promoting the lifting of international sanctions.

In principle, the signed agreement is very similar to the Minsk agreements between Ukraine and CADLO. In fact, the Americans signed a surrender. At the same time, they tried to save face. It seems to me that this was the only correct decision in that situation. But it was that "landmine" that was laid under the entire policy in Afghanistan and which was to explode in the event of a change in the political leadership in the United States.

Collective Biden also wants but cannot


It may sound strange, but Biden is also for the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan.

Moreover, this is not today's decision, this is a position voiced back in 2018 and confirmed in 2019. Let me remind you of Biden's words at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) hearing in July 2019:

"If any US military presence will remain, it will only be for the purpose of conducting counter-terrorism operations."

"In addition, it will be important to diligently engage Afghanistan's closest neighbors, including Pakistan, Iran, China, India and Russia - they all have an interest in Afghanistan and need to convince them to support a lasting peace deal."

That is, Biden has an understanding that the war is a losing one for the United States.

But the point is (unlike Trump) President Biden is not a specific person. This is the collective Biden. Team Biden, if you will. And now the opinion of one person is not so important. And the opinion of the team is important.

Moreover, we forget another important factor. In addition to the Americans, there are other units of the armies of the NATO states in Afghanistan. For example, Germany. And these states are also planning some actions on the territory of Afghanistan. That is why today the North Atlantic Alliance will discuss at the level of defense ministers the further actions of the bloc in Afghanistan.

Among other things, one of the issues will be the withdrawal of troops.

The Taliban signed the agreement for a reason. The withdrawal of troops refers not only to the American army, but also to its allies. The mandate of the allies, in particular the FRG, expires on March 31. This is the deadline after which something must happen.

The revision of the agreement, which means the next negotiations with the Taliban (the organization is banned in the Russian Federation) is a long-term business. It is highly doubtful that they will end by this time.

And then what?

Will the Germans withdraw their troops (1200 people today) or will they leave?

What will the Taliban do if this contingent remains?

What will al-Qaeda do (banned in the Russian Federation)?

Without the support of the Taliban, the alliance cannot control the terrorists.

In any case, the decision will be up to the Americans. Europeans are well aware that they are zero without the United States. And they will not be able to act independently in Afghanistan. The Taliban (if desired) will destroy the same Bundeswehr in a short time. That is why NATO defense ministers will urge the Americans to maintain at least a limited presence in Afghanistan.

It seems to me that Biden (the same collective Biden) will somehow try to change the agreement or cancel it. Strictly in accordance with the country's declared course towards US dominance in the world. And this is possible only if the current state of affairs in Kabul is preserved.

Geopolitics is to blame


I propose to slightly change the point of view on the problem of Afghanistan. Look at the situation more globally. Based on the main task of the United States during the reign of Joe Biden - the return of a unipolar world, led by America.

Let me remind you of the situation in dotted lines.

So, in the Asian region today the interests of all three global players converged. Russia and China are just in this region. And the US is very interested in minerals and trade routes that provide real profits without too much trouble. The Americans cannot resist China and Russia on land. Therefore, they are courting India today.

The counterbalance to the Indo-American alliance is the alliance of Pakistan and China, on the one hand, and Russia and Syria, on the other. In turn, Russia in Syria is held back by Iraq, which is dominated by the Americans. But Iraq is also under pressure from Iran, which often acts on its own. Turkey? Erdogan is also a largely independent figure. Pakistan supports Afghanistan in the west ... Very rude, but understandable, as it seems to me.

Why can't Americans just leave Afghanistan?

Simply because in this way this existing balance of power will be upset. The withdrawal of army units from Afghanistan will give Pakistan a significant advantage. Islamabad will be able to redeploy significant forces to the Indo-Pakistani border.

This will naturally raise questions from American friends from New Delhi. Why such friendship if India is forced to strengthen its borders with Pakistan? Isn't it easier to return to good-neighborly relations with China, and therefore with Pakistan?

Even the promises of the Kabul government to provide comprehensive assistance to India and guarantees from the United States will not be able to shake the doubts of the Indians. Kabul (as has traditionally been and is in Afghanistan) only controls Kabul. All other provinces are ruled by local authorities.

It turns out a vicious circle.

It is necessary to withdraw the troops, but not.

Calm in Afghanistan is not expected


Alas, a calm and peaceful life will not shine for the long-suffering people of Afghanistan in the near future.

Geography (more precisely, the geographical position of the country) has always been the enemy of peace in this territory.

The geopolitical confrontation between the leading countries of the world destabilizes the internal situation in Afghanistan.

The hope for peace that emerged after the US-Taliban agreement (the organization is banned in the Russian Federation) is melting before our eyes.
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  1. Vladimir_2U
    Vladimir_2U 17 February 2021 05: 16
    +4
    The attitude to this war in the United States itself today is about the same as in the 80s of the last century in the USSR.
    In the late 80s, late.
    1. dSK
      dSK 17 February 2021 09: 25
      +4
      States from Afgan voluntarily never (completely like the USSR) will not go away, one more base, one less ...
      Biden, his sponsors financiers, are not going to cut external debt. They cut in the printing press at the third speed ...
      1. Vladimir_2U
        Vladimir_2U 17 February 2021 10: 01
        +5
        Quote: dsk
        States from Afgan voluntarily never (completely like the USSR)

        So the USSR did not quite voluntarily left, "perestroika" was far from being a "purely internal" process.
        1. Civil
          Civil 17 February 2021 10: 26
          +3
          1. Afghanistan is doomed to be divided, the PRC base is already in Badakhshan and the entire province has been cleared of mujahideen of all stripes.
          2. The Wakhan corridor is controlled by the Chinese.
          3. The PRC has actively entered the deposits of copper, iron, lapis lazuli.
          4. Actively builds the infrastructure of Afghanistan, as befits the communists.
          5. Most likely, as soon as the US leaves. The PLA will take control of Afghanistan.
          1. DrEng527
            DrEng527 17 February 2021 14: 45
            +2
            Quote: Civil
            The PLA will take control of Afghanistan.

            let the rake on ours and the Americans ... bully
            1. Civil
              Civil 17 February 2021 15: 01
              +1
              Quote: DrEng527
              Quote: Civil
              The PLA will take control of Afghanistan.

              let the rake on ours and the Americans ... bully

              It is not excluded.
          2. andrewkor
            andrewkor 17 February 2021 19: 33
            +2
            And Uzbekistan and Pakistan are going to build a railway from Mazarisharif to Peshawar. Iran is pulling its own line. The Turkmens want their own and the Tajiks want to go there too (see "railways of Afghanistan").
          3. Suraikin.Aleksandr
            Suraikin.Aleksandr 25 February 2021 23: 28
            0
            The PRC is actively developing Tajik Badakhshan, preferring not to enter Afghan Badakhshan.
            The Chinese military and PMCs as a whole are characterized by the maximum avoidance of participation in hostilities outside the borders of the PRC. This is especially true near the borders of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region.
            If the United States withdraws its troops, it is highly likely that a Russian military contingent will enter Afghanistan. This will be beneficial and convenient for everyone, both for the PRC and for the United States and for Russia itself.
    2. domokl
      17 February 2021 11: 19
      +4
      Quote: Vladimir_2U
      In the late 80s, late.

      And at the beginning everyone was shouting hurray? I don’t remember that. Only the first three months from December 1979 were calm. Then the war began
      1. Vladimir_2U
        Vladimir_2U 17 February 2021 16: 22
        +3
        Quote: domokl
        And at the beginning everyone was shouting hurray? I don’t remember that. Only the first three months from December 1979 were calm. Then the war began

        What does it have to do with being calm in Afghanistan? The article clearly states:
        The attitude to this war in the United States itself today is about the same as in the 80s of the last century in the USSR
        And in the USSR, at least until 1985, they did not bother with Afgan at all, and for a very long time they did not consider the presence of OKSVA, which is only massive applications of conscripts for service there. Then it was another matter, but then the year from 87th began.
  2. Destiny
    Destiny 17 February 2021 05: 40
    +8
    Troops must be withdrawn, but troops must be left

    "He is, of course, to blame, but he ... is not to blame. Have pity on him, comrade judges."
    But now let them clean up this mess themselves, and we'll see how they manage to eat the fish, and ... get off the Afghan without reputational and other losses.
    1. dauria
      dauria 17 February 2021 10: 31
      +5
      and .. get off the Afghan without reputational and other losses.


      Why should they get off? They have chosen excellent tactics. The happiness of the Afghan people is not built. And the people there are heterogeneous, as many as two languages. Neither the Kabul authorities nor the Americans are going into a showdown. They do not allow to overthrow their rulers, feed them, balk at them - they will be replaced by a more loyal "authority", since there are more than enough wishing princelings, and they guard their airfields. The most important area - Iran, Pakistan, and China muddies the waters. And so they keep tens of thousands of guards, and you will expel the figs.
      Colonial politics should be learned from the Anglo-Saxons, they are professionals in this matter.
  3. Cowbra
    Cowbra 17 February 2021 06: 09
    +4
    But the fact is that (unlike Trump) President Biden is not a specific person. This is the collective Biden.

    "The pound has always sat." The can is precisely the chairman. There is even a meme - "Can and Mad Women" - Pelosi, Harris, Clinton. each of which means more than a Can, whose whole role is to open the mouth. In short, about the same role as Monica Lewinsky.
    And Bidon cannot get out of Afgan in any way. He turned out to be president only thanks to TNK, Northrop's influence alone, which desperately needs contracts for the unfinished F-35 - enough to grind the Bidon into powder, and will wash - Clintons, since the time of her husband, President Clintons - the Northrop lobby. Minus any war - minus the reason for orders from Northrop. If Bidon signs the order today, he will go to Dallas tomorrow. on a visit to G.F.K., Clinton has a nickname Killary for a reason - before the Trump election, 4 opponents of the Clintons suddenly committed suicide in a month, it seems, two were shot, 1 dropped a barbell around his neck, the 4th also moved muddy horses. And here the reason is more serious.
  4. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 17 February 2021 06: 33
    +2
    It was clear to Obama that the war in Afghanistan did not work out, Trump decided to withdraw the troops, but they didn’t let him, Biden came and ... he also seemed to want to withdraw, but he was not given (?). At the same time, they are already openly whispering with the Taliban, promising them something, and at the same time, Biden again raised unconfirmed information about the payment by the Russian side to the Taliban for the murder of American soldiers. They wanted to, long ago would have taken their own people out of Afghanistan, and then, with joy, the members of the coalition ran. But withdrawing means once again admitting defeat, which I really do not want.
    1. Nyrobsky
      Nyrobsky 17 February 2021 10: 02
      +1
      Quote: rotmistr60
      It was clear to Obama that the war in Afghanistan did not work out, Trump decided to withdraw the troops, but they didn’t let him, Biden came and ... it seems he also wants to withdraw, but they don’t give him (?). At the same time, they are already openly whispering with the Taliban, promising them something, and at the same time, Biden again raised unconfirmed information about the payment by the Russian side to the Taliban for the murder of American soldiers. They wanted to, long ago would have taken their own people out of Afghanistan, and then, with joy, the members of the coalition ran. But withdrawing means once again admitting defeat, which I really don't want.
      By and large, they already admitted defeat when they sat down with the Taliban at the negotiating table, which ended with the formula - Taliban terrorists, will allow American terrorists to leave, in exchange for a promise to fight Alkaid terrorists))). However, at the same time, they could not agree that the Taliban, after the mattresses left, would not nullify the regime of the Kabulis, on whom the United States had relied on for further influence in the region. Kabul also understands that after the withdrawal of troops, the governors of the mattresses will have a noose around their necks for 1-1,5 years. It was here that a fork appeared at the mattresses - you cannot leave because their support will be crushed, you cannot stay because they begin to nightmare the mattresses themselves and the prospect of another 10-15 years of unpromising presence in Afghanistan is drawn. Most likely, they will follow the path of a phased withdrawal of troops with the transfer of their functions to PMC units, which, as it were, will make it possible to say that the United States fulfilled its obligations to the Taliban (formally) and the troops left, and the fact that private traders settled there is the business of private traders and the official Kabul who hired them. Mattresses cannot be trusted and they will be muddied there for a long time.
  5. tralflot1832
    tralflot1832 17 February 2021 07: 28
    +4
    They are stuck up to their ears in Afghanistan, they sit at the bases and do not rock the boat. It's funny there are Georgians too, one battalion of "singers". I don’t worry at all when and how they will go out. It is desirable with big losses both in the image and in the troops. The Taliban are pulling the mustache stronger than the Amers, otherwise "the kings of the hill have drawn themselves." hi
  6. kytx
    kytx 17 February 2021 09: 05
    +3
    After the mention of the German contingent, he began to read further. The Germans initially did not want to go there and resisted as best they could. The United States dragged them there by force and they will dump them from there at the first opportunity.
  7. Doccor18
    Doccor18 17 February 2021 10: 12
    0
    The hope for peace that emerged after the US-Taliban agreement (the organization is banned in the Russian Federation) is melting before our eyes.

    What world ??? laughing
    Peace in Afghanistan is not needed by any of the players. Everyone needs chaos in which they can solve the assigned tasks.
  8. rpastukhov
    rpastukhov 17 February 2021 12: 49
    0
    "In addition, it will be important to diligently engage Afghanistan's closest neighbors, including Pakistan, Iran, China, India and Russia" - the last three states do not border Afghanistan.
  9. APASUS
    APASUS 17 February 2021 15: 08
    +1
    The fundamental difference in the presence of the USSR and the US troops in Afghanistan is that we have smashed drug caravans, and the Americans are developing drug trafficking. It has long been no secret that the cities of Europe where American bases and airfields are located are drug trafficking centers. We tried to build a society in our own image (even if it was not very successful), built schools, factories, roads, but the Americans do not bother much.
  10. iouris
    iouris 17 February 2021 17: 33
    0
    China will solve this problem.