Ahval: For Russian S-400 air defense systems in Turkey, the "Cretan model" may not work

Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar suggested that Turkey and the United States will be able to resolve their differences over Ankara's purchases of Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems using the "Cretan model." He was referring to the past situation around the older S-300 complexes belonging to Greece, stored for a long time in Crete.

The Ahval edition argues on this topic.

Cyprus originally ordered the S-300 from Russia in the late 90s to contain Turkey's violations of its airspace. Ankara threatened to destroy them if they were deployed to the Greek side of the island, causing a serious crisis. The situation was resolved when Greece agreed to host the missiles instead of Cyprus, depositing them in Crete. Since the arrival of the air defense system, Athens first activated these systems in 2013 to participate in military exercises.

Akar's reference to the "Cretan model" appears to be limited to the fact that Turkey undertakes to activate the S-400 only as a last resort due to special circumstances. But at the same time, it will not take the missiles out of the country.

And although Ankara is trying with all its might to resolve the conflict with the United States over the Russian S-400 systems, it is unlikely that she should hope that the "Cretan model" will suit Washington. The model may not work. Moreover, even if Turkey moves the new air defense systems to Libya, Azerbaijan, Qatar or the Turkish part of Cyprus, this will cause serious problems for it, since the United States and some other countries of the North Atlantic alliance will not like it.

It seems that by purchasing the S-400 complexes, Ankara has put itself in a hopeless position and has hopelessly spoiled relations with the United States and NATO. Actually, this state of affairs is quite suitable for the Russian Federation.

Comments

[OgnennyiKotik]

Akar's reference to the "Cretan model" appears to be limited to the fact that Turkey undertakes to activate the S-400 only as a last resort due to special circumstances. But at the same time, it will not take the missiles out of the country.

They can withdraw to Azerbaijan. To Nakhichevan.

[Albay]

Fiery cat welcome!
They will not be able to withdraw to Azerbaijan and Nakhichevan. The contract probably states that it cannot be transferred to a third country. There is no Turkish military base in Azerbaijan.

[OgnennyiKotik]

Good evening! Here Russia will not be left with much choice, this will be the base if it has not already been created. Those same F-16s did not fly away and recently a suspiciously large number of transport aircraft flew from Turkey to Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan is a compromise that will suit everyone, other countries will not suit for sure. But to mothball the complexes and take them under the joint control of the United States and Turkey is also an option.
In general, any option is bad for Russia.

[Albay]

Fiery cat, there can be no base.
Azerbaijan is a member of the Organization of Non-Aligned Countries, currently chairs. As far as I know, the Constitution of Azerbaijan contains a ban on the presence of military bases of other countries on the territory of the country. F-16s were left after the exercises and with a hint that if a third party intervenes in the war between Azerbaijan and side that will be used. Yes, Turkish advisers, officers and instructors have always been, but their presence is regulated by bilateral agreements on mutual assistance. I think it will not work officially to transfer the s-400 to the territory of Azerbaijan.
Although we will wait and see. Everything is changing rapidly in our time.

[bayard]

Quote: OgnennyiKotik

They can withdraw to Azerbaijan. To Nakhichevan.

Why are they needed there? What is the use of them there, especially Turkey?
In addition, Azerbaijan can buy such complexes itself, they have money, but they are not needed in Nakhichevan.
Turkey purchased these air defense systems to cover the capital and strategic infrastructure in the western part of the country. They have a protracted conflict with Greece and territorial claims.
But now these complexes are going sideways for them in relations with the United States and NATO.

[OgnennyiKotik]

Instead of the S-400, there will be Patriots and Turkish air defense systems. 4 divisions is too small anyway, you need several regiments. Well, it's not for me to tell.
In Azerbaijan, the Turks will have access at any time, far from all sensitive NATO zones and not so much annoy Russia and the United States.

[bayard]

So why did you spend money? What to put in the far corner?
But for the sake of restoring relations with the United States, they can put them in the hangar - for storage. They got on these air defense systems.
What kind of Turkish air defense system is there, I don't know, I've only heard about Wishlist. "Patriot" is outdated and expensive ... but for the sake of restoring relations, maybe they will buy it.
4 divisions, by today's standards, are 2 regiments of two divisions. These are heavy complexes, they do not stand alone, they need both short-range and medium-range air defense systems to dance. The Turks bought S-125s from Ukraine and, possibly, Belarus, but supplied them to Libya. Perhaps they will buy it for their territory - after modernization, they are quite good for themselves. At one time, we were talking about plans to purchase two or three dozen such complexes. Together with the S-400, they could make up a completely harmonious air defense. But for complete happiness, a couple more regiments would not hurt.
India had five regiments (ordered), Turkey had four.

[OgnennyiKotik]

Below I answered in detail, let me copy:

Quote: OgnennyiKotik

The task is to build a national air defense system.
EU and US refuse to sell SAMP-T and Patriot.
We are developing our own systems, but it is long and difficult. S-400 is bought. They gain access to technology and bargaining power. The United States refused to supply the F-35, but the money was not returned and the components for it were produced in Turkey at least until the end of 2020. Everything that can be obtained from the S-400 remains on alert duty, by the way, in November last year, this should have been done.
The contours of the deal are being seen. S-400s are deactivated and taken away, for example, to Azerbaijan, Patriot are bought, full return to F-35, + trade deal, + agreements on the Middle East and the Caucasus.

News from today:

Quote: OgnennyiKotik

National Defense Minister Hulusi Akar: “The Defense Industry Administration (SSB) is in contact with the United States on the acquisition of Patriot systems. The issue with SAMP-T [the European analogue of the S-400] with Europe is progressing. The S-400 is a defense system. Turkey cannot inflict any damage with the help of them on others. Protection systems are used in the event of a crisis when needed. We are ready for negotiations on the S-400 "

[Orange bigg]

... Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar suggested that Turkey and the United States will be able to resolve their differences over Ankara's purchases of Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems using the "Cretan model."

And why is Turkey so creeping before the states, justifying itself? Would send them all. Even despite the sanctions. You have to be self-sufficient.

[Pavlos Melas]

Quote: OrangeBigg

... Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar suggested that Turkey and the United States will be able to resolve their differences over Ankara's purchases of Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems using the "Cretan model."

And why is Turkey so creeping before the states, justifying itself? Would send them all. Even despite the sanctions. You have to be self-sufficient.

I'll say the obvious thing but Turkey is not Russia. For this reason, the sanctions on Turkey are in effect. Yesterday in the newspaper there were photographs of magnets against the theft of baby milk. It takes time to be self-sufficient. If relations with NATO are abruptly and irrevocably cut off, then problems will begin to provide for the army.

[Roman070280]

Even despite the sanctions. You have to be self-sufficient.

Rash conclusions ..
For example, the Germans prefer to avoid sanctions .. because this is business, money .. these are salaries and pensions .. this is the standard of living for their population ..
You can, of course, act like we do .. "self-sufficient" ..
To each his own..))

[Brturin]

Quote: OrangeBigg

And why is Turkey so spreading before the states

about "spreading" somehow ... if they did, they fulfilled the requirements of the states, they are rather bargaining here, because they do not want to give up the S-400 yet - the commission for the study, the Cretan version ("activate ... in the most extreme case .. .. But at the same time, she will not export missiles outside the country) ... Erdogan understands that he will not be expelled from NATO, and all the more severely "punished" ... "Turkey is a valuable ally and maritime partner of NATO," - vice Admiral Eugene Black, after "maneuvers" in the Black Sea,

[Siberian 66]

Ankara has put itself in a hopeless position and has hopelessly spoiled relations with the United States and NATO. Actually, this state of affairs is quite suitable for the Russian Federation.
A very bold statement. Erdogan is on his mind. And neither is he now running after someone, and the rest are running around with him, flirting, trying to attract with different shanyushki. Threats with sanctions are not very good.

[Orange bigg]

At first, they try to kill Erdogan in 2016 during an attempted coup under the leadership of the West, the same West sets fire to the southeast of Turkey, supplies the Kurds with weapons, and then suddenly they are surprised that Erdogan is in his mind in such a situation. God only knows how in such a situation Turkey and the West have not yet severed relations.

[military_cat]

Quote: Sibiryak 66

Threats with sanctions are not very good.

Something imperceptible. Turkey as soon as it does not fuss to get out from under the sanctions imposed for the purchase of the S-400. Some working groups are proposing, some technical commissions, some Cretan models with locking the system in a dark closet. They are busy literally in every way, except for the explicit rejection of the S-400, which would demonstrate a complete deflection to the requirements of the United States, and this is more a matter of Erdogan's personal arrogance.

[OgnennyiKotik]

The sanctions are ridiculous, the only painful thing is not the delivery of the F-35.
They will refuse the S-400, what they wanted they got. Moreover, the purchased amount is scanty, Turk needs 4 S-400 divisions, not 4 divisions. But there is more than enough to study technology.
Here is the news from today:

National Defense Minister Hulusi Akar: “The Defense Industry Administration (SSB) is in contact with the United States on the acquisition of Patriot systems. The issue with SAMP-T [the European analogue of the S-400] with Europe is progressing. The S-400 is a defense system. Turkey cannot inflict any damage with the help of them on others. Protection systems are used in the event of a crisis when needed. We are ready for negotiations on the S-400 "

[military_cat]

Quote: OgnennyiKotik

The sanctions are ridiculous, the only painful thing is not the delivery of the F-35.

The sanctions are ridiculous *
_{* except when they are not funny}

I think that Erdogan does not need the S-400 for anything, and he just wanted to put a hairpin in the United States for supporting the Kurds and providing asylum to Gulen, but did not expect the reaction to be serious.

[OgnennyiKotik]

He is not interested in this. Bashish needs to be counted, not to please the ego.
The task is to build a national air defense system.
EU and US refuse to sell SAMP-T and Patriot.
We are developing our own systems, but it is long and difficult. S-400 is bought. They gain access to technology and bargaining power. The United States refused to supply the F-35, but the money was not returned and the components for it were produced in Turkey at least until the end of 2020. Everything that can be obtained from the S-400 remains on alert duty, by the way, in November last year, this should have been done.
The contours of the deal are being seen. S-400s are deactivated and taken away, for example, to Azerbaijan, Patriot are bought, full return to F-35, + trade deal, + agreements on the Middle East and the Caucasus.

[Zaurbek]

If the Turks do not use them, the professional skills will not be at a high level. And they may not work at the right time.

[rotmistr60]

The most interesting thing is that the S-400s are not only capable of shooting down planes, but they can also quarrel between two countries belonging to the same military-political bloc, and one of these countries is the chief of NATO.

[cniza]

Quote: rotmistr60

and one of these countries is the head of NATO.

And the other, the second aid after the chief ...

[cniza]

It seems that by purchasing the S-400 complexes, Ankara has put itself in a hopeless position and has hopelessly spoiled relations with the United States and NATO. Actually, this state of affairs is quite suitable for the Russian Federation.

Erdogan is not stupid, so as not to calculate it initially, he plays his game ...

[Mouse]

Erdogan is not stupid, so as not to calculate it initially, he plays his game ...

Not only is not stupid ... also cunning ...

[cniza]

This property, just not going to good, will find an adventure ...

[Mouse]

Everything for the time being, for the time being ...

[rocket757]

He is gambling, and he has his own unique situation.
Let's see what he finds as a result.

[cniza]

Gambling, yes, but even more stubborn ...

[rocket757]

He, as in a song ... only needs victory !!! Otherwise, the readership will not understand, will not forgive! And the margin of safety, he, is small! They can and push aside.

[cniza]

It seems to me that the resource is no longer there, where to go? ...

[rocket757]

Remaining in place, without trying to change anything, this is a losing option, in his situation
It turns out, pan or disappear!

[cniza]

He apparently has no choice, so he rushes right through ...

[Guru]

if Turkey moves the new air defense systems to Libya, Azerbaijan, Qatar or the Turkish part of Cyprus, this will cause serious problems for it, since the United States and some other countries of the North Atlantic alliance will not like it.

I think Russia will not like it the same way, and the contract provides for these options for events.

[rocket757]

The Sultan is looking for profit ... and here the options are different, although in fact, only two!

[cniza]

He forgets that not everything is smooth in domestic politics ...

[rocket757]

You cannot say about him that he is not at all friendly with his head ... in simple terms, it does not work out quickly. Not children play against him! Well guys are not a miss.
Searches, searches, can and will find.
We'll see.

[cniza]

Not children for sure, we'll see ...

[rocket757]

As they say, those who are against him are clearly oriented towards stripes.
Not the best option for us, at least.

[cniza]

They are not just focused, they are financed from there, and this does not bode well for us ...

[rocket757]

So the politicians are ready to promise a lot to come to power!
Who and what will then be done, the question of questions!

[cniza]

Quote: rocket757

Who and what will then be done, the question of questions!

It worries them as much as the issuance of obligations, the main thing is to get power ...