SIPRI Researcher: I believe that in 5-10 years Russia will "drop out" from China's interests as a supplier of weapons and military technologies

The Japanese edition of Nikkei AR published material authored by Western observer Dmitry Simes, dedicated to the issues of modern weapons in Russia and China. The material begins with a mention of how "Chinese fifth-generation J-20 fighters soar into the sky, maneuvering between flashes of lightning." It is indicated that now these aircraft have Chinese-made engines, although they previously used versions of the Russian Al-31F.

The material stated that earlier China relied primarily on the purchase of weapons and military equipment from Russia, but for some time now the situation has changed dramatically. The article points out that China is now creating its own defense industry and preparing to challenge Russia in the global arms market.

Simes cites data from the Stockholm Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). The 2019 report indicated that for the first time, four Chinese companies were included in the 25 largest manufacturers of weapons and military equipment in the world. Moreover, three of them were in the top ten in terms of sales. At the same time, only two companies were reportedly included in the Top 10 of the Russian companies. A comparison is also made in percentage terms - the share of Russian companies from the Top 25 accounted for 4% of the global market volume weapons, the share of Chinese from the same list is already 16%.

For obvious reasons, first of all, Chinese companies are increasing sales through domestic orders - the supply of weapons and equipment for the needs of the PLA (People's Liberation Army of China).

A comparison is also made in terms of the volumes of the military budgets of Russia and China. Today, Chinese is about 6 times larger and amounts to at least $ 260 billion.

The article cites the opinion of SIPRI Senior Researcher Simon Weseman, who believes that "Russia is far behind in terms of military development in order to be able to interest Beijing in them."

Wesemann also stated the following:

I believe that in 5-10 years Russia will finally "drop out" from the interests of China as a supplier of weapons and military technologies.

It is worth recalling that such forecasts, including those on the “complete decline of the Russian defense-industrial complex,” were given by foreign experts in the 1990s as well. However, with all the difficulties in the defense industry in our country, the forecasts (which are more similar not so much to forecasts as to attempts to pass off the wishful thinking) of such experts were not destined to come true. At the same time, Russia has not only created and is creating the latest weapons, but also finds new markets for the sale of weapons and military equipment abroad.

Comments

[Victor_B]

It will never happen that China overtakes Russia in ALL directions.
But...

The article points out that China is now creating its own defense industry and preparing to challenge Russia in the global arms market.

...inevitably.
In fact, he is now competing tightly on the arms market not only with Russia, while he has already nibbled a decent piece.

[Lech from Android.]

It will never happen that China overtakes Russia in ALL directions.

Compare the rates of development of China and Russia ... compare the human resources of Russia and China ... compare the planned work of the Chinese Communist Party and the invisible work of the capitalist market in Russia, compare China's desire to preserve everything that their ancestors built and Russia's desire to destroy everything that our ancestors built and tell me who is more likely to be ahead.

[Vadim_2]

China destroyed its ecology for the sake of the "economic leap".

[bayard]

Quote: Vadim_2

China destroyed its ecology for the sake of the "economic leap".

And now he looks at our Siberia and licks his lips.

[hydrox]

Quote: bayard

And now he looks at our Siberia and licks his lips.

He can lick his lips for another 50 years, but SO MUCH times do not exist in one trend - something will definitely change in our favor during this time - let's look at the successes of China by that time. And please note that China has already used 50 years since the industrial revolution - over the next 50 years, China CANNOT become so strong and aggressive (i.e. the trend will reverse sign) to encroach on the conquest of Siberia.
This can happen only in one case: the GDP will once again not want to be obliged to the people, therefore (as a result), the world war for resources will have to be lost, the people WILL NOT obey either their own or overseas imperials, therefore a sluggish war with liberda will unfold , where the liberda will act on behalf of and on behalf of the United States, and the people will be used as cannon fodder.

[bayard]

Quote: hydrox

He can lick his lips for another 50 years, but SO MUCH times do not exist in one trend - during this time something will radically change in our favor

You are such an optimist ...
Under whose leadership will such a radical change take place? By what miracle will the economy (and it is the head of everything) from a stable recession and stagnation go to such a rapid growth that it will provide "such drastic changes in our favor"?
... "20 years is a long time, and you will understand in 20 years ...".
20 years have passed, but over the last 7 years there has been a stable decline, a drop in the standard of living of the population by an average of 2 times (the purchasing power of the population), all promises have not been fulfilled, the Pension Reform has been carried out, taxes and fees have increased, the army and navy rearmament programs - disrupted (in very many positions), a whole series of programs of technical and technological "breakthrough" - disrupted, the vertical of power became bronze and completely detached from the People ...

Quote: hydrox

over the next 50 years, China CANNOT become so strong and aggressive

He has already become one.
And it will continue to grow. It is ruled by the CCP, development is going according to plan, business is clearly following a strategic line and is developing by leaps and bounds (during a period of general recession, China is GROWING), the PLA is rapidly modernizing, developing, strengthening and acquiring more and more opportunities, the Ocean Fleet is being built, which will soon be able to challenge the US Navy and its allies. Technologically, China is already going ahead, and will acquire the missing competencies in the coming years (5-10 years). China is pursuing economic expansion, and it is very assertive and aggressive.

Quote: hydrox

This can happen only in one case: GDP once again does not want to be obliged to the people,

It was necessary to think about it earlier. There was plenty of time and reason.
Russia, of course, is a land of wonders, and one can dream of the long-awaited "revolution from the top" ... but as long as the upper circles consider Siberia "their cow", they will defend it ... and milk it.
It will save the situation only if the liberals are replaced by the sovereigns ... only here, too, everything is like in that fairy tale:
"The sovereign killed a liberal, and the latter said to him before his death:" Now you are a liberal "... and ... scales, teeth and a tail begin to grow in the sovereign ..."
Sad tale ...

[hydrox]

Quote: bayard

Under whose leadership will such a radical change take place?

Under the guidance of TIME !!!
Now the financial and economic TIME is becoming a vector value!
The authorities and the state can do nothing: time will make unexpected decisions, if at the same time do not forget that time, with the Komatsu bulldozer, paves an even and relatively solid road through the stumps and gullies are not at all for Ukraine (these (oh!) Always go around !) , but for those who manage the work of this bulldozer (and this is not Russia!).
Short memory?
I have already said and I have to repeat: do not consider yourself smarter than the Yankes. That is why they first need to destroy the passionate and active Russia with brains, in order after that to take on the NON-PASSIONARY and cowardly China with a billion-dollar army

[meandr51]

Why shouldn't he lick his lips on his 2/3 of empty lands? In fact, nobody needs Siberia as such. It is not profitable to master it. The world is full of more lucrative places not covered by an army with nuclear weapons. Only some deposits and forest in some places are profitable.

[bayard]

Quote: meandr51

Why shouldn't he lick his lips on his 2/3 of empty lands?

On your own?
Do you really consider these lands ... Chinese?
And since when?
We could also lick our lips on the territory of China - mummies of white people with our genotype are constantly found there. And the pyramids there are larger than in Egypt.
also ours.
Siberia, you say nobody needs it?
But I remember in the early to mid-90s in the United States there was an initiative ... to buy Siberia from us for several trillion dollars.
Do you think they wanted to buy something completely unnecessary?
The fact that there were not enough resources for its development is understandable: it is far away, Western Siberia is a continuous swamp, Eastern Siberia is on permafrost. Wealth is immeasurable, hard to get.
But China has the resources.
Both material, technical and human.
And the United States and England have enough resources (money, technology, specialists).
And in our country all the resources go offshore ... becoming the resources of the United States and England.

[Oleg Tchernychenko]

The subject under discussion cannot be measured in meters, goals, seconds. Yes, China is showing impressive economic progress and technology absorption. However, one must see that the Chinese are good (maybe excellent) copying. But with the creation of new technology, things are not very good. Orientalists argue that the structure of the Chinese language is not conducive to technical creativity. The Chinese are working in this direction, but this process takes time. So Dmitry Simes is undoubtedly an intelligent, educated and intelligent person, he is not mistaken.

[Ka-52]

It will never happen that China overtakes Russia in ALL directions.

but that's not the point. Just before, China did not consider Russia as a supplier of weapons for its army. The author of the article simply described events from his alternate universe. For a long time, China has been purchasing machinery and components from us only as models for copyright. AL-31FN for their Chengdu J-10 is one of the few remaining examples of a bet on Russian equipment. Therefore, there is nothing to say that China will eventually go somewhere. Another thing is that he is actively competing in the Asian and African arms markets, taking advantage of his dominance in the regions.

[nnm]

In the original article, apart from the difference in the economic situation, another correct conclusion is drawn: "... unlike Moscow, Beijing can link arms deals with lucrative economic offers."
And TNI itself, in which Simes works, is well known on VO for his articles. If you remember the comparisons between airplanes, our ships and American ones, ending in conclusions about the need to increase funding, do not doubt it, this is Simes)))
By the way, this publication and his "father" - Kissinger are very often reproached in the USA for working for Russia)))

[Ka-52]

unlike Moscow, Beijing can link arms deals with lucrative economic offers.

Such a beautiful phrase translated into our colloquial means just dumping.

[nnm]

Not really. This also means loans, technologies, and not only military ones, investments in various projects (don't forget, the PRC has the world's largest investment fund), etc.

[Ka-52]

This means more loans

Yes I know. Not so long ago I came across a similar one in Cuba. when the Chinese gave a loan for a very expensive project, but on the condition that all the technical base, all the components are only of Chinese origin. It's arm twisting, nothing personal - just business

[Sahalinets]

So they did not hide the fact that the Su-35 were buying purely copying the AL-41 engines. And they wanted to buy a couple of pieces. With difficulty they were divorced into a couple of dozen ...

[Alex777]

They will never surpass us in all respects.
For only ours could shoe a flea. Genetically.

[Grif]

To put it a little pompously, China can be compared to a sailing ship with the wind of progress blowing into its sails. But the sailboat will never overtake the wind.

[Alex777]

Yes. Something like this.
If according to the common people: God does not give a horn to a vigorous cow.

[meandr51]

In fact, it will not overtake only with direct armament. With an oblique sail, the gullies develop a backstay (back-to-side) with the wind at twice the speed of the wind. American John Buxtaff set the record in 1938 at Lake Winnebago, Wisconsin. With a hurricane wind of 116 km / h, the pilot accelerated his Debutante to a speed of 230 km / h.

[Sidor Amenpodestovich]

Quote: Victor_B

It will never happen that China overtakes Russia in ALL directions.

They'll throw it at you! .. Actually, it has already begun.
For the local contingent, China is the reincarnation of the USSR and an object of idolatry. Everything is according to the laws of the wheel of samsara, hehe! And you are encroaching on their sacred.
Aim! ... Fire!

[nsm1]

China has already overtaken 99% of destinations.
There is no doubt that the rest will tighten up.

[Stas157]

Quote: Victor_B

Never there will be no such thing as China overtaking Russia in ALL directions.

This is with a 6-fold excess of the military budget and an 8-fold excess of research costs?

If this imbalance persists (and it persists), then Russia will hopelessly lag behind.

[TermNachTer]

Uncle like America discovered?)))) Considering how much they spend on defense and how much they steal, this is not surprising. But I would not be so categorical. Scientific schools, design teams are not created in one day, not in a year, or even in ten, the process is very complicated - you cannot steal it))))

[Far B]

in 5-10 years Russia will "drop out" from the interests of China as a supplier of weapons and military technologies

I won't be surprised. At the beginning of the XNUMXs, there was a joke (remade from): "China will have its own auto industry when Russia becomes the world champion in football." So, only twenty years have passed, but China still has its own auto industry. But we have, damn it, stability.

[Adimius38]

so it will be. China is a power with a powerful economy and they, like a sponge, absorb technologies from other countries, while developing their own. Spending a lot of money on it. They have already begun to do a lot better than Russia, and therefore even now are a serious competitor in the arms market. 5-10 years and China will not need Russia as an arms supplier, they will finish their aircraft engines, which Russia supplies them. Ukraine helped them a lot with its specialists whom China bought out and tons of technical documentation from defense enterprises, and these are technologies.

[Uncle lee]

Quote: Adimius38

like a sponge absorb technology

And it can even sponsor our developments .... For your own benefit.

[Mountain shooter]

Quote from Uncle Lee

And it can even sponsor our developments .... For your own benefit.

Who lets them into our developments?
I don’t understand ... Their "5th generation" fighters flew on our AL-31s - and nothing like that, 5th generation. Our Su-57 on the much more advanced AL-41 no, not the 5th generation ...
China still has a lot to learn to do. And above all, change their management of science. Directive management - science does not lend itself well to it. The law "I am the boss - you" is strictly fulfilled by them ...

[Uncle lee]

Quote: Mountain Shooter

Who lets them in

Now capitalism, my friend .... The world of cash. And there is nothing that cannot be bought, to mutual agreement and pleasure ...
PS I here, somehow, at VO, was indignant at the betrayal of an officer, so they explained to me, a naive Nanai boy, what formation I live in, and my concepts of honor, duty and decency need to be handed over to a pawnshop for a couple of hundred long ago .Evgeniy

[Israel]

China is still an ear on feet of clay and bends in front of the United States stronger than anyone else, because it is afraid of losing their market, and those who want to take China's place and "sew panties" for the Americans, a wagon and a small cart. The United States supports Taiwan, pumping it up with weapons, imposing sanctions against Huawei and a number of other companies, pushing through the rollback of reforms in Hong Kong and what China did in response, but practically nothing.

[Vladimir_2U]

It's a shame, annoying and nifiga is not okay!

[rotmistr60]

Western observer Dmitry Simes

The political scientist and historian decided to take up military topics as well. The American of Soviet descent is straightforward "and the Swiss, and the reaper, and the dude." It keeps up everywhere. And to criticize the regime in Russia, and to make comments on the establishment of good relations with the United States, and to stand up to the defense of true "democracy". Now in the Japanese media (and why not at home?) He speculated about the armaments of Russia and China, while referring to some research assistant (probably a clever senior one). If you think sensibly, then you do not need to be seven inches in the forehead to predict the obvious. If a country lags behind in technical development, then the interest of other countries in it and its developments naturally falls. But so far Russia is ahead of the rest of the planet in terms of certain types of weapons. And 5-10 years will not be marking time in one place.

[Doccor18]

..that "Russia has lagged far behind in terms of military developments in order to be able to interest Beijing in them."

They would like to, but the reality is different ...

[nsm1]

Their reality is correct.
I already wrote here - at the Omsk Baranov plant, an aircraft engine repairman receives from 15 thousand rubles.
Repair engineer at OGM - from 17 thous.
The worst work there, unlike in the past.
It is not at all surprising that everyone is overtaken by the Chinese, the Brazilians ...

[Tagan]

Quote: Far In

In the early XNUMXs, there was a joke (remade from): "China will have its own auto industry when Russia becomes the world champion in football." So, only twenty years have passed, and China still has its own auto industry. But we have, damn it, stability.

India also has its own auto industry ...

[nsm1]

Hawal buy well.
And the Honda is leaving us ...

[Avior]

by Western columnist Dmitry Simes

he is also Dmitry Konstantinovich Simis. Publisher and CEO of the American magazine "The National Interest", host of the talk show Big Game on Channel One.
And for once and for all, the Chinese are eager to oust Russia from the arms market. It is Russia that the States has its own niche and a group of buyers, where neither Russia nor China, with rare exceptions, has no move.
Chinese people are not those people to feel gratitude and try to negotiate the division of the market, for the fact that technologies from Russia allowed them to make a breakthrough, without which they would have been poking around for a long time, despite all their hard work - what cannot be taken away, that cannot be taken away. They need everything and it's a matter of time: (((.....

[Ros 56]

It is not known whether the states will be in the form in which they are now in 10 years?

[Aleks2048]

I believe that in 5-10 years Russia will "drop out" from the interests of China as a supplier of weapons and military technologies

Well, he took it too much, but very close to the truth. I think that in 10 years China will really stop being interested in what the Russian Federation is selling to it today. China will not be interested in air defense systems, tanks and aircraft of Russia, but there is something that China may be interested in just in 10 years, and these are multipurpose nuclear submarines and missile carriers and they will be interested in the reactor and weapons, the rest will really be of little interest to China. RF.

[Boromir1941]

confused by such exerts. they would only shake the air, but no sense. just to bark at Russia

[Tagan]

Quote: nsm1

Hawal buy well.
And the Honda is leaving us ...

They bought a lot of things from the Chinese well. Only most of their crafts quickly turn to trash. Even faster than AvtoVAZ products.

[Redfox3k]

What engines? What technologies? The Chinese have any metal product - only on the top of the metal spraying, creating the illusion of metal, and inside a powdery substance that bursts under any more or less prolonged load. Spare parts for cars: if the original runs for 5-10 years, then a Chinese craft takes a maximum of 1 year. Although outwardly everything looks like the original. And so - in everything. Gypsy and dust in the eyes - the Chinese are the best at it. Their strength is primarily dumping. They can do nothing without dumping and very cheap labor. They will not stand any competition.

[syndicalist]

... in 5-10 years Russia will "drop out" from the interests of China as a supplier of weapons and military technologies

Because Russia will finally become a complete Chinese vassal and an object of the internal Chinese economy.

[Stirbjorn]

No wonder - the Chinese announced back in 2014 that the Su-35 and S-400 would be the last purchases of weapons in Russia. In fact, aircraft engines have remained since then.

[Reklastik]

forecasts (which are more like not so much forecasts as attempts to pass off wishful thinking) of such experts were not destined to come true.

- there will be quantitative indicators for the 90s and the present time - then, if you compare them, maybe you can say so. There are no quantitative indicators - you can say anything.

[rocket757]

So it will be, while we have 22 millionaires running around the field after one ball, the fleet will grow with fat belly yachts, and the leading specialists of serious scientific institutions will give interviews against the background of tattered cabinets in their "Khrushchevs", teachers and all the others who CREATE scientific, the economic power of the country will sit on macaros ...

[A_Lex]

When jesters, balabolians and swindlers are the elite of society, the whole society suffers.

[rocket757]

The simple question is, why the hell did society "run" them there?
What did they think about when such arrogant ko / Z / lish were launched into our common garden ???
You can't understand this without a liter

[Alexander Dubinin]

China has NO ENGINES! Article bullshit for the dough.

[The eye of the crying]

There is. And in 5-10 years they will be brought to mind.

[Alexey Zigalov]

In China, bribe-takers and plunderers of state property are shot every month. They have something to defend, but we have the elite of society. What has been done in 30 years.

[Shraik]

Every month for decades already. And bribe-takers do not end there. Tenacious bastards!

[Israel]

So in Russia, Putin has nowhere to run, he has essentially established himself as president for life, plus the guarantees of immunity have written in the constitution, that is, he has an interest in having a strong army in Russia, another question is that everything else suffers, but I have no doubt that huge amounts of money will be invested in armaments in Russia.

[Vadim Ananyin]

And what does the GDP have to do with it?

[A_Lex]

In the XNUMXs, Russian weapons were sold well, because at that time, Soviet projects were still very relevant. But as we can see, the stake in the rearmament program is made on the modernization of all the same Soviet projects. There are very few really new, breakthrough projects. New projects are usually developed for a very long time, deadlines are repeatedly missed, and such products are in no hurry to go into a wide series. Given this trend, the Russian Federation in the future will gradually lose the markets of industrially developed countries, for which its products will be more and more irrelevant, as well as the markets of third countries due to ever increasing competition.
It is clear that the process will last for years and will not represent a kind of one-time catastrophe. It will be such a gradual, smooth subsidence. At the same time, one does not have to wait for the rise and powerful development from a regime that is ideologically fixated on the laying of pipelines.

[Vadim Ananyin]

Of course, a lot will not be lost in connection with the mess of the 90s, but technologically, too, a lot is different, the main thing is not to stop here.

[Knell wardenheart]

Well, the concept of "complete decline" is not only relative, but also extremely non-specific. With regard to the US military-industrial complex, since 1991, we have undoubtedly been in an unambiguously increasing financial and technological gap in the range of weapons. Concerning the military-industrial complex of the USSR, for example. And this can, and quite logically, be characterized as "Decline".
It cannot be called unambiguously "Complete" - we focused on a number of weapons as priority developments, in a number of areas we are trying in every possible way to compensate for the lag behind the United States, a number of areas, of course, just in the “Complete Decline", here we have repeatedly written about torpedoes and counter-torpedoes, about ships, anti-submarine aircraft, minesweepers, etc., etc. So it could be characterized as an overwhelming decline, but not complete. Is it easier for this? No.
With the PRC, the situation is still not so dire, but given our love for small-scale deliveries to the PRC of our best products - and their passion for copying and borrowing - time and circumstances play against us.

[Vadim Ananyin]

Copy without production technology - zero result.

[Knell wardenheart]

True, unless the whole production complex of an entire country is geared towards this.
What does not come out to be copied will simply be replaced by what comes out) on the edge that they will be able to develop and manufacture themselves - on the equipment that we also sold them for many years (and which they also copied and modified).

[Israel]

Well, this is a great exaggeration, if the trend in Russia is as it is now and, accordingly, the turnover of China is the same as it is now, then Russia will be China's partner for at least another ten years, and the aircraft engine China will bring the aircraft engine to what Russia has now for another ten years.

[Vadim Ananyin]

Complete bullshit, India also decided that she was cool, so what? And nothing, there is no basis in the main directions, it is just emerging. The Brahmos story? Chinese tanks? Of course, there are some successes, but why did they climb into Motor Sich? And all because there is no competence and experience.

[Maxim Z.]

Don't give a damn, but we have a $ 100 billion palace.

[Vdi73]

China has already overtaken everyone in terms of basic indicators and will overtake both the states and Russia in terms of armament, only the states are far across the ocean, and Russia is, under the side, with unpopulated lands.