How long will the drawn-out truce in Donbass last: versions and assumptions

Source: mil.gov.ua

To spite all deaths

Despite the justified skepticism of civilians and the military, despite numerous violations and a gradual escalation, despite the losses of both sides in killed and wounded, the "indefinite" ceasefire signed on July 27, 2020 somehow lasted until early 2021. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are increasingly using not only small arms weapon, but also improvised drums Drones, mortars and grenade launchers, BMP guns. And yet, heavy weapons are silent, and the intensity of hostilities is an order of magnitude lower than a year ago. The question is, how long will all this grace last?

Fans of monetizing the network hype and anxious sentiments of citizens in 2020 predicted more than once an "offensive in the Mariupol direction", a "Karabakh scenario" and an attack by an armada of invincible "Bayraktar". Now on the agenda is the activation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine after Biden's inauguration. Among the network alarmists, it is generally believed that Sleepy Joe, immediately after his accession, will give his Ukrainian vassals an order to immediately attack the LDNR. However, the date of the final crusade of the Ukrainian army against the People's Militia, as well as the date of the "drain" of the republics, has been set again and again since the summer of 2014, but the apocalypse will never come.

Time is running out

In any case, if the Ukrainian side really wants a full-scale massacre, it would be better for it to hurry up - there are only a few weeks left before the spring thaw, when the steppes turn into a swamp. Otherwise, the Blitzkrieg will have to be postponed until May-June. However, something suggests that this train has finally left for Kiev. Yes, it is quite possible that in the foreseeable future cannons will start talking at the front again. It is even possible that in an attempt to revive their rating, the Ukrainian authorities will try to organize a local victorious operation (in fact, they have already tried more than once, but each time they got it in the teeth). But it is getting harder and harder to believe in the possibility of a full-fledged military operation, even with the Bayraktars, or with some gifts from Biden.

And the point is not only in the evolution of the People's Militia, which, despite its monstrous troubles, nevertheless begins to resemble the armed forces a little, and not in the gradual decomposition of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (Ukrainian authors write a lot about this, who talk in detail about the lack of ammunition, the lack of guidance systems fire, terrible condition of armored vehicles, etc.). It is not even a matter of the guaranteed high losses that await the Armed Forces of Ukraine in a well-aimed gray zone filled to the brim with mines. The point is in the steadily growing number of citizens of the Russian Federation living on the territory of the republics. There are already more than 200 thousand of them in the DPR alone, and this figure is growing. It is clear that if something threatens their lives, Moscow will not turn a blind eye to it.

The enemy does not sleep

Relax, of course, is not worth it. As the rating falls and the socio-economic situation deteriorates, Kiev may well decide on aggressive measures and an attempt to divert public attention by escalating along the line of demarcation and local skirmishes. In the end, having disposed of several thousand Ukrainian soldiers, the Ukrainian government will be able to distract the population from problems for a while and explain its failures to the intrigues of the aggressor.

It is also worth noting that the draft law “On the State Policy of the Transitional Period in CADLO and Crimea” published by the Ministry of Reintegration of Temporarily Occupied Territories contains not a word about amnesty or “special status”, but much has been said about lustration, expropriation of property and invalidation all republican documents. That is, there are still enough madmen in the power circles in Kiev who believe in the possibility of avoiding the implementation of the Minsk agreements and returning Donbass using a forceful scenario.

However, the aggressive rhetoric, which has recently been adhered to by the head of the DPR Denis Pushilin, hardly appeared just like that. Like the ceasefire itself - the first long one, it is hardly a merit of Donetsk and Lugansk. Most likely, Zelensky was forced to slow down for a reason. This means that there is reason to believe that Kiev will be forced to adhere to a more or less peaceful policy. At least, if the situation does not change dramatically, or if a directive does not come from Washington to go for a suicidal assault on the LPR.

Comments

[oleg-gr]

such an "indefinite" truce is more like a state of "no peace, no war." with the peculiarity that the U.K.R. they shoot whenever they want, and the people's militia only in response.

[Machito]

Earlier than June 22, it is hardly worth waiting for the Ukrovermacht offensive, despite the seizure of power in the White House by Biden. A treacherous attack cannot be prepared in one day.

[Civil]

Transnistria is 30 years old. So Donbass is, in the current situation, for a long time.

[Thrifty]

I have said a hundred times, I will not give up my words - it is high time for the Kremlin to recognize the republics, and to accept them as they are for a start, with the help in returning the territories to Russia! These are our lands, and the people there are still Russians, albeit with their brains partially washed out by the anti-Russian rhetoric of Kiev!

[Nyrobsky]

Quote: Thrifty

I said a hundred times I will not give up my words - it is high time for the Kremlin to recognize the republics, and to accept them as they are for a start, with the help in returning the territories to Russia! These are our lands and the people there are still Russians, albeit with their brains partially washed out by the anti-Russian rhetoric of Kiev!

You must have been explained a hundred times too the fact that the recognition of the republics, in the state in which they are now, does not make sense, since this will legally secure for the republics only the part that they control. That other part of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, which is currently under the occupation of Kuev, will remain with Kuev, along with the people you mentioned, since the border consolidation will be carried out under the control of the armed forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the LPR. You can observe the same in the recent history of Karabakh. If Pashinyan had nodded his mane a week earlier, then Shusha would have remained behind Karabakh, but since he nodded late, the border stipulated in the agreement fell under the control of Baku. Do you seriously think that the recognition of the cut off territory is in the interests of Russia and the LPR?
Now, if Kuev begins to implement an operation to forcefully return the uncontrolled territory of the LPNR, then Russia will receive full moral and legal right to reason with the aggressor and push him out of the LPNR with their full recognition upon the restoration of administrative borders. The reason for the intervention is more than convincing - hundreds of thousands of newly acquired citizens of Russia.

[Kronos]

These are all excuses, from the category we will wait until the corpse of the enemy floats.

[Nyrobsky]

Quote: Kronos

These are all excuses, from the category we will wait until the corpse of the enemy floats.

Show your point of view on this problem, only without waving checkers and "courageous" throwing at all kinds of embrasures. I will study it with interest.

[Kronos]

I would like everyone, as you say, to immediately support Kernes who flew to Moscow at the beginning of the events.

[Nyrobsky]

Quote: Kronos

I would like everyone, as you say, to immediately support Kernes who flew to Moscow at the beginning of the events.

The role of Kernes in the failure of the Russian spring in Kharkov has already been dismantled 100500 times by bones and molecules. This same Kernes, the very process and merged. He also flew to Moscow after, under the pretext of some kind of sports interest, but everything remained the same - the owner of all Kharkov land until he was made a wounded animal, and recently, having rest in Bose, he appeared before God. Now Avakov and "Co" will begin to rip apart this pie and bring it into a state of degradation and decline, like the rest of Ukraine. But if Kernes thought not only about his crown, then you look to this day and would be healthy, while having his portfolio of the head of the KhNR.

[saigon]

Well, we went to the borders and what do we have in profit?
And we have everything, too, a hostile and more angry state formation Ukraine, there are not any options with parts of Ukraine, only everything and no other way.
The return of the entire outskirts of the Russian state is an option, and you will have to beat out the delirium of independence by any means.
It is also worth taking into account that Russia is not an empire now, it has no temptation (especially for local elites) to buy these, and therefore, a total cleanup of this layer.
And hence the question is whether the Russian leadership is capable of such actions and whether the people of Russia will accept such a development of events.

[Nyrobsky]

Quote: saigon

Well, we went to the borders and what do we have in profit?
And we have everything, too, a hostile and more angry state formation Ukraine, there are not any options with parts of Ukraine, only everything and no other way.
The return of the entire outskirts of the Russian state is an option, and you will have to beat out the delirium of independence by any means.
It is also worth taking into account that Russia is not an empire now, it has no temptation (especially for local elites) to buy these, and therefore, a total cleanup of this layer.
And hence the question is whether the Russian leadership is capable of such actions and whether the people of Russia will accept such a development of events.

In this case, we are not talking about crossing the border, but about recognition... If we recognize what is left, as especially gifted grunts insist on it, then this will be formalized legally, with the loss of chances that someday Donetsk and Luhansk regions will regain control in their historical administrative-territorial boundaries.
Everything else that you write about also has a place to be, but only if Russia introduces its troops in order to force the junta to peace in the image and likeness of the conflict between South Ossetia and Georgia in 08.08.08.

[Egor-dis]

Quote: Nyrobsky

If we recognize what is left, as especially gifted grunts insist on it, then this will be formalized legally, with the loss of chances that someday Donetsk and Luhansk regions will regain control within their historical administrative-territorial boundaries.

And what prevents to recognize precisely in the historical administrative-territorial boundaries? With the recognition of the fact that part of these territories is occupied by the Ukrainian people? With the subsequent proposal to withdraw the so-called. APU from the occupied territories? The prospect of a real conflict with real Russian troops will stimulate this proposal in the best way. Up to the mass (or rather, the general) desertion of the APU units. Because most of them came here (sometimes, whole villages) not to fight, but to earn hryvnia.

[Nyrobsky]

Quote: Egor-dis

And what prevents to recognize precisely in the historical administrative-territorial boundaries? With the recognition of the fact that a part of these territories is occupied by the Ukrainians? With the subsequent proposal to withdraw the so-called. APU from the occupied territories?

In essence, this will be the consolidation of the existing status, that is, the freezing of the conflict for the future. In fact, now in the Minsk Agreement, and so part of the territory is recognized under occupation, and there is a proposal to stop used actions and withdraw the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The cart is still there. Only if earlier Russia did not have the opportunity to enter this territory without violating international law, now, after distributing passports and acquiring hundreds of thousands of its fellow citizens on this territory, Russia will be obliged to do this even on the basis of its Constitution, which guarantees its citizens the protection of the state ... If Kuev starts a military operation, then our troops will enter there, and it will be as you write

Quote: Egor-dis

The prospect of a real conflict with real Russian troops will stimulate this proposal in the best way. Up to the mass (or rather, the general) desertion of the APU units. Because most of them came here (sometimes, whole villages) not to fight, but to earn hryvnia.

[businessv]

Quote: saigon

And hence the question is whether the Russian leadership is capable of such actions and whether the people of Russia will accept such a development of events.

You don't need everything, only to Kuev will be enough. The people of Russia will only gain from this, but the current leadership will never agree to this. If they weren't honored in 2014, then today they won't dare. The intestine is thin.

[rocket757]

Time is running out

But for whom and how does it work, and for whom does it end ???

[cniza]

And people continue to die ...

[rocket757]

Failure of politicians ... people suffer.
When this is all over, alone ... but I don't know who knows.

[cniza]

The worst thing is half-measures, half-solutions and a frozen situation, but on people ...

[Vadim_888]

... ... Otherwise, the Blitzkrieg will have to be postponed until May-June.

Arzeybajan has been preparing for several years ... And finances are not comparable ...
And money, as you know, is the blood of war ...

[tatra]

The "great critics" of how the Soviet communists and their supporters fought, who in 3 years expelled the united Europe led by Hitler and attacked the USSR from the territory of the USSR, themselves waged a war in the Russian Federation for 8 years with a bunch of "illegal armed gangs", but so did not win, and for 7 years they cannot end the war in Ukraine.

[Ros 56]

Sooner or later, but the mess will surely begin and there will be many reasons.

[Undecim]

Once again, without regaining consciousness, the author Makhov unsubscribed.
Another delirium about "power scenarios" and "suicidal assault", designed to cause another "seething shit" from local hamsters.

[nnm]

I don’t know, colleague, I don’t know .... I would very much like your peace forecast to come true. But this war is urgently needed by the United States. As well as the Ukrainian authorities. As long as they have doubts about the real loss of statehood. Although this is unlikely to stop them.
I would like to believe in a peaceful scenario, but we have to admit that the plans of action in Donbass are completely independent of Ukraine. Yes, and they are gladly preparing an insane project on reintegration, which will simply be crossed out by Minsk -2.
I also cannot say with confidence that the current US administration will not put the power scenario at stake. It is too profitable for them.

[Undecim]

Try, for a start, colleague, turn off the TV. Under his influence, you will never understand the meaning of my comment. After turning off the TV, in three or four months, we will try to return to the topic.

[nnm]

Thanks for the advice, colleague. I don't mind if I turn it on first, otherwise I haven't watched it for many months.
I do not argue, it is quite possible that I did not understand your idea, perhaps you can push you on the true path. What did you mean, if not a secret:

Another delirium about "power scenarios"

since mostly commented on this part.

[Undecim]

"TV" is a collective concept. In this case, these are the sources under the influence of which you formed an opinion on this issue. Moreover, you are clearly far from the place of events.

[nnm]

Colleague, I apologize again. Not sure if I should tell you which sources I use and which ones I don't. I quite calmly asked you a question about what exactly did you mean by saying:

Another delirium about "power scenarios"

I'm really interested, maybe I misunderstood what you think is a power scenario from the Ukrainian side unlikely. Or did they mean something else?

[Undecim]

I'm really interested, maybe I misunderstood what you think is a power scenario on the Ukrainian side unlikely.
You understood correctly.
As for the sources, this is just serious. You, in all seriousness, argue that "this war is extremely necessary for the United States." You hardly have sources in the US Presidential Administration. Therefore, the basis of your opinion on this issue is "TV".

[nnm]

I would like, of course, to ask about the source of your statements about the author's "delirium". Probably keep a certificate from a narcologist or psychiatrist in your hands. Or about the sources of such an uncontested opinion about the peaceful course of events. Also, I think, you constantly exchange messages with Zelensky. And I would also like to ask about my basis. Surely, we looked at all the logs and so on.
And if this is not so, then do you think that you are in some way:
1. not quite correctly behaving, categorically distributing labels of psychiatric diseases, zombified media to the author, colleagues on the site;
2. Do you consider someone else's opinion insignificant, citing a banal incorrect syllogism, exaggeratingly demanding other documents from the US administration, while your own opinion is not based on comparable documents?

It is strange to see in such a respected colleague such a negative attitude towards the author and other people's opinion. Regards (no sarcasm)

[Undecim]

I have no negative attitude towards the author. I am far from wasting my own emotions on such insignificant objects.
This is purely a statement of fact based on a comparison of the author's publications with reality.
As for the assessment of someone else's opinion, the level of his assessment depends on the level of opinion.
That is, there is nothing personal in my comments.
All my assessments and characteristics are expressed in the discussion of the issue.
If someone doesn't like it, that's not my problem. I did not impose discussions and communication on anyone.
All the best.

[nnm]

Quote: Undecim

I have no negative attitude towards the author.

as you say, colleague, as you say

Quote: Undecim

Once again, without regaining consciousness, unsubscribed author Makhov.
Another delirium about "power scripts"

[Avior]

In the article, the complete lack of local specifics is striking. A set of cliches and general statements, nothing that would give out that the author has some kind of information from there. Only common words and cliches.
this place is especially interesting

there are only a few weeks left until the spring thaw, when the steppes turn into a swamp

For a resident of central Russia, nothing surprising - well, the warmth has come, the snow has melted, everything is flooded with water.
But a person familiar with the specifics of the South East of Ukraine immediately has a question - is there any snow there? Is there anything to melt in the spring in such an amount, as a Russian is used to seeing?
What does the rambler say about this?
And there, for a minute, plus, which, it seems, did not occur to the author.
https://weather.rambler.ru/v-donetske/ukraina/10-days/
And the question arises, who are you, the author, if you do not know anything about the peculiarities of local life or the weather?

[nnm]

Good day. It would be very interesting to hear from the esteemed Insurgent and other residents of the LPNR about what is happening in the "gray zone". Is it not being observed that it is occupied by the forces of Ukrainian punitive forces?

[The leader of the Redskins]

It's easy. He will tell you that there are problems (mainly of an organizational nature), that not everything is going smoothly, but the people are united and monolithic, and in his corner there is a smeared "Maxim" from which he fired at Ukrovsky crafts. And if only evil dill sticks out, then as one! Regardless, and definitely!

[Avior]

The problem of the LDNR is that nobody needs them now or in the future.
Neither Russia nor Ukraine. And people are suffering and no prospects.
The economy is dying, and there is also no prospect of recovery in the foreseeable future. Even though Russia is annexed, even though Ukraine is, there are no people willing to invest and it is not expected.
For Russian enterprises, there is only extra competition, and for Ukrainian enterprises, the further, the more the situation is similar.
Coal there has long been generally unprofitable, only a few mines will actually support, metallurgy has actually been kneaded by the expansion of production at similar enterprises in Ukraine and is determined not by production capacity, but by demand.
So there really is no one to fight there. Both sides will support a sluggish conflict - it is beneficial for the authorities of the republics to justify the beggarly, let's say honestly, salaries in the republics, others do not allow the conflict to fade away in order to keep the population of the republics in suspense. In Ukraine itself, this war now practically does not affect anyone, they remember from time to time.

[Peter rybak]

This is not a truce. This is an expectation. Hope for turmoil in connection with the struggle for power in our country, popular unrest, when the authorities will not have time for the LPR and DPR.

[Odysseus]

Everything is very simple here. The truce will last exactly as long as the United States needs. When Biden gives the command, Maidan Ukraine will move forward.
Unfortunately, their position is a win-win - in its current form, the People's Militia will not last even 2 weeks. This means either a demonstrative defeat, or the massive commissioning of the 8th army. Moreover, in the "ichtamnet" format. With heavy losses and automatic charges of aggression.

[Avior]

Biden is well aware that the beginning of full-scale actions by Ukraine means open intervention by Russia. And this means either it will first come to an agreement with the Kremlin that there will be no Russian interference, or the States will fully intervene, which is hard to believe. And if such an ace happens, it will happen, God forbid, and Donbass will become the arena of hostilities between the States and Russia, after all, only ruins will remain there: (((

[Odysseus]

Quote: Avior

Biden is well aware that the beginning of full-scale actions by Ukraine means open intervention by Russia. And this means either preliminarily agree with the Kremlin that there will be no Russian interference, or the States will fully intervene, which is not in

The states will not directly interfere in anything. Why would they? Russians and Ukrainians perfectly destroy each other for their own amusement. US intervention will only make matters worse for them.

Quote: Avior

And if such an ace happens, it will happen, God forbid, and Donbass will become the arena of hostilities between the States and Russia, after all, only ruins will remain there: (((

Everything is simpler. The Russian Federation recognizes Donbass as the territory of Ukraine, moreover, it does not even recognize the existence of the DPR and LPR. So Ukraine is simply starting an operation to "restore territorial integrity against terrorists."
And then two options arise
1) RF does not interfere. DPR and LPR are being smashed. The West is applauding.
2) The Russian Federation intervenes behind the scenes in the "ichtamnet" format (and officially it cannot do this, because this is the territory of a foreign state). That is, a repetition of the situation in autumn 2014 in a worsened version, because then the status of Donbass was controversial. BTGs without air support suffer heavy casualties.
Further, in an ideal situation when the Ukrainian army is defeated, Minsk-3. And a repetition of the past.
The West applauds again. For the Russian aggressor and Russians and Ukrainians are killing each other.

[Dimide]

An article from the category of a reminder, do not forget about the existence of the LDNR.
As long as Zelensky is in power, there will be no "blitzkrieg". He has repeatedly stated that the solution to the LPR problem will only take place in a peaceful manner.

[Cat]

As long as Zelensky is in power, there will be no "blitzkrieg". He has repeatedly stated

Do you really think that Zelensky is in power, and everything that he said can be taken seriously?

[Dimide]

Absolutely. Especially now, when Ze has cut himself off and gained experience in politics (faced with real layouts), gradually building the presidential vertical, he no longer makes strong "populist" statements

[Cat]

Absolutely

I don't even know what to answer ... Therefore, the picture:

[Avior]

Unfortunately for governments, this is more common in all countries.: (((

[cniza]

This means that there is reason to believe that Kiev will be forced to adhere to a more or less peaceful policy.

There is too much Makhnovshchina ...

[ximkim]

The truce will last as long as the Armed Forces are preparing for hostilities. Kiev only makes it clear that for it the fastest and shortest way to regain control over Donbass is a military solution. The meetings of the contact group and the Norman Quartet provide only a freeze of the conflict, and not a resolution of the conflict with an exit on a peaceful path to end civil hatred and war. Most likely .. as soon as the Ukrainian Armed Forces purchases uavs, mining systems and there is support from patrons, then this is a signal for hostilities .. something like this

[samarin1969]

However, the aggressive rhetoric, which has recently been adhered to by the head of the DPR Denis Pushilin, hardly appeared just like that. Like the ceasefire itself - the first long one, it is hardly a merit of Donetsk and Lugansk. Most likely, Zelensky was forced to slow down for a reason.

Since the days of "Cossack Babai" I have read such statements. It is unlikely that anyone reads them in Ukraine. Nobody will tell the truth about the real plans of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Presidential Administration of Zelensky. Maybe a version of "Barbarossa" with the involvement of Middle Eastern "Romanians" and "closing the sky" has already been piled up there. And the mud will definitely not stop aviation.
The hints of our "Basurin" about the North Wind may not come true. The Kravchuks were so inspired by the failure of the SP-2 that they officially consider the "sanctions" their main weapon. Davos will clearly give them optimism.

[Boromir1941]

some people in kuevo would not hurt to wash their brains with an enema

[Vlad5307]

This pseudo truce will last only as long as it is beneficial to the FSA. A new slaughter will be profitable - they will send the "cannon fodder" of the outlying patriots to death. That's all. And the inflated hatred of the ukronatsi towards Russia is needed precisely in order to keep the average man in fear and drive the frostbitten to the slaughter.

[steelmaker]

To infinity! What if Putin is not lying and will keep his word? Then the United States can lose more than it has now. And if Russia annexes Donbass, it will have to be restored. Does Putin need it? Therefore, under Putin, exactly to infinity !!!

[yehat2]

it is better not to guess, but to turn to the facts.
and the facts are that Ukraine actually has the last year, when it is still able to adequately equip troops for an attack on Donbass, while the Russian Federation, distracted by the crown, SAR and events in NK, can react rather sluggishly, in addition, news about the transfer of large groups of equipment and the acquisition of new means of attack, mainly UAVs.
Those. Ukraine is already creating the opportunity to launch an offensive in the summer, taking advantage of some of the confusion from the coronavirus and other events along the way.
And whether the start will be given or not is not known. But in the place of the militia I would prepare for a difficult summer.
And first of all, to massive shelling with coordination with UAVs - guided bombs and conventional artillery, which can start at any moment.
And in this light, it is very important to establish effective elimination of all UAVs that have flown into their territory.

[Egor-dis]

Eh, Egorka, Egorka! With your opinions and with your analysts, would you go .... into the army. In the sense of NM. Ordinary. Two years old. In order to assess from the inside all the perspectives of "power scenarios".