Ahval: There are three winners and one loser in the Karabakh war

The Middle East press examines options for the outcome of the Karabakh war from the point of view of relations between Turkey and Armenia. It is no secret that it was Turkey that made a great contribution to the Azerbaijani army's military success. Ankara has significantly strengthened its position in the South Caucasus. In this regard, observers Nadir Habibi and Amelia Atalay from Ahval write that Turkey could intensify its diplomatic initiative towards Armenia.

From the article:

There are three winners in the 44-day war in Karabakh: Azerbaijan, Turkey and Russia, and one loser is Armenia. Russia restored its influence in the South Caucasus, Azerbaijan conquered its territories, Turkey shared the victory as Azerbaijan's main ally.

According to observers, "as one of the winners, Recep Tayyip Erdogan could show goodwill and promote dialogue and cultural exchange with Armenia." It is noted that the cornerstone of relations between Yerevan and Ankara, which, in fact, do not exist, is Turkey's refusal to recognize the genocide of the Armenian population during the First World War.

From the material:

In recent decades, external pressure on Turkey from the US and EU to recognize these victims as genocide and to apologize has resulted in nationalist resistance.

But, as they write in Ahval, if Erdogan acts from the position of a "generous winner", the resistance of the nationalists in this matter will decrease. The authors note that Erdogan could use the rhetoric of Alparslan Türkesh (1917-1997), a pan-Turkist and nationalist, founder of the Nationalist Movement Party, who at one time said that sooner or later one should negotiate with Armenia, conduct diplomatic interaction.

Habibi and Atalay write that today is probably the ideal moment for Erdogan to start such interaction and make certain concessions in recognizing the mass casualties among Armenians at the beginning of the last century. It was noted that this would make the borders more transparent, increase trade between the countries and consolidate peace in the South Caucasus.

Comments

[Thrifty]

They would ask Erdogad if the Turkish military had a hand in destroying our helicopter in Karabakh! Otherwise, they are singing Lazarus to him, and it’s time to sing the sultan’s waste. ...

[dSK]

It was noted that this would make it possible to make borders more transparent, increase trade between the countries and consolidate peace in the South Caucasus.

"Dreams, dreams - what a sweetness ..."
Military exports from Turkey to Azerbaijan for 11 months of 2020 increased by 610% ...

[Tatyana]

Only the Turks themselves can believe and hope in Erdogan with his pan-Turkism - and even then not all!

[Civil]

This is another temporary status quo, as one of the parties strengthens / declines, the alignment will change.

[Jager]

There is nothing permanent in the world at all

[Dkuznecov]

I would not rinse the president's name
any country, it is permissible in a pub,
or in the alley with the Strong Hunt,
but in this context it is unacceptable.
And there is no sultanate in Turkey.
Maybe you lost the quotes on the keyboard,
I do not know. Erdogan is not a sultan.

Turkey has not lost anything. But she won a lot.

RF lost people, equipment,
and lost the quality.
Chess players will understand me.

Azerbaijan has lost freedom of maneuver, people, equipment,
independence. Now he is a satellite of Turkey.
For him (Azerbaijan), the war ended with
what happened now.
Or they could have taken the whole republic.

Something like that.
Thank you for attention.

[bad]

if Erdogan acts from the position of a "generous winner" ... to show goodwill and promote dialogue and cultural exchange with Armenia

It's like patting the head after being beaten. Will the Armenians agree?

[NDR-791]

this would make the borders more transparent, increase trade between the countries and consolidate peace in the South Caucasus.
The Sultan spoke long ago, right after the signing of the truce, that like there are many Armenians living in Turkey and they have no problems. Like, leave me alone with your initiatives, I have other problems and tasks.

[XXXIII]

Quote: malo

It's like patting the head after being beaten. Will the Armenians agree?

It is unlikely that they have built a policy on the Armenian genocide, they have invested a lot. If they try to turn around, they will find a way to place them and answer for it. There are many "Pashinyans" in Armenia, so they are in check and for a long time.

[nnm]

There are no winners or losers in this conflict in the distant future - the conflict has not been resolved politically, peacefully. Mutual hatred remains, what will happen to the Armenian population of the territories passed to Armenia - it is not clear, it is not clear and whether Turkey will completely occupy Karabakh, or Armenia to recapture the territories, etc.

[Crowe]

Quote: nnm

There are no winners or losers in this conflict.

There are no winners in a war - only losers. Arthur Neville Chamberlain. Nothing is over there yet - with varying degrees of success, enmity has been going on for hundreds of years, and until the end of the Easter holiday.

[aszzz888]

Ahval: There are three winners and one loser in the Karabakh war

And while everyone pulls the blanket over himself.

[rotmistr60]

make certain concessions in recognizing the mass casualties among Armenians at the beginning of the last century.

Of course, Erdogan, listening to the advice, ran stumbling to recognize the genocide. Let this not happen, tk. how recognition entails not only political, but also large financial losses.

[Pessimist22]

Once again he says that without Russia there would be no Armenia at all.

[EXPrompt]

Ahval: There are three winners and one loser in the Karabakh war

There are no winners, no losers.
Russia - received another base and an increase in its military presence in the region.
Turkey - Received money from Azerbaijan for arms supply contracts. And soon it will receive a transport corridor towards the Caspian Sea for its goods.
Azerbaijan got territory, and crap on its ass. These territories need to be developed to maintain security there, whether the Azerbaijanis will live there is an interesting question. etc.
Armenia has lost what, according to the UN decision, it should have lost back in the 90s.

And the massacre and hatred, excuse me, has been going on since the times of ancient rome, nothing can be done about it, they cut each other with rapture for centuries, and they stand each other. Nothing has changed in this. Give the opportunity, and conditions, the same Armenians, they will enthusiastically slaughter the Azerbaijanis and even more so the Turks.

[saigon]

Since the times of the Roman Empire, hatred does not go in the absence of an object of its application for Armenia.
Despite all the speaking from the Turks and Turks alike, at the turn of the beginning of our era, Turks and Turks alike were absent in that region from the word at all.
The first mentions of the Turks and then to the east of Altai 500 AD (although of course the Turks have no relation to the Turks as a people and a nation, just a linguistic term for defining a linguistic community.)

[EXPrompt]

Yes, of course, under Rome, the Turks as a nation did not exist.
But this does not change anything, the customs of which have not changed for centuries, for millennia.

This is not a significant comment.
There and without the Turks, there were enough strong players, let's say the Persians, Byzantium.
And the same Visnatia, in the era of the beginning of the dark ages, is a complete analogue of the modern USA.
Just think, you are a small state, and next to you is a superpower. A lot of unexpected things can be suddenly obtained.

[alone]

Given the current state of relations, the entire further peace process will completely depend on the path that Armenia will choose ... The country and the people must understand that constant territorial claims to neighboring states, based on a map of 3000 years ago, will not lead to anything good ... We must admit territorial integrity of neighbors, open borders, give an impetus to economic development. If this is not done in the near future, the country will simply become empty.

[NDR-791]

the country will simply become empty
It is already empty. 8 million out of 11 million live by.

[alone]

Quote: NDR-791

It is already empty. 8 million out of 11 million live by.

So it is necessary to do so that these 3 million live in their country and enjoy life. I do not think that Armenia will be better if the number rises to 10 million.

[NDR-791]

So these three also live in the country, the remaining 11 million. fled long ago and do not want to return, even to fight for their land

[alone]

Quote: NDR-791

the rest 11 mln. they fled long ago and do not want to return, even to fight for their land

Well, right ... no one wants to die for crazy ideas about "Great Armenia" from sea to sea. Ordinary citizens want to live in peace, work, marry or marry their children, babysit their grandchildren. An ordinary citizen does not want to be a victim of a war on which a bunch of national chauvinists stuff their pockets

[NDR-791]

An ordinary citizen does not want to be a victim of war, on which a handful of national chauvinists stuff their pockets
This is to the point !!! Only the simple were sitting in the trenches under the hailstones, and not the simple ones were indignant here that Russia is not running for the poor, unfortunate Armenia to fight. Do you think if Pashinyan is turned around, they will immediately run to plow the land and build factories? Wait !!!

[Anar]

I support, moreover, completely unfounded Armenian maps, according to their maps even Byzantium belonged to them. They don't even give these maps for radiocarbon dating.
The conclusions of these maps are not so many years old and are based on epics and myths or simply on the rich imagination of individual nationalist individuals.
In this way, I can draw and inscribe that 2000 years ago all of Europe and Africa were part of the Russian Empire.

[APASUS]

Quite a controversial idea in the material. Erdogan is building a new Ottoman Empire, and then the author proposed to negotiate with Armenia

[Seal]

Quote: EXPrompt

And soon it will receive a transport corridor towards the Caspian Sea for its goods.

And, what, before was it not? Where, then, are there so many Turkish goods in Armenia. And Azerbaijani, by the way, too. https://vk.com/wall-33475436_795940
The Government of Armenia, by its Decision No. 1708-N of October 20, 2020, imposed a temporary ban on the import of final consumption goods of Turkish origin. The ban will come into force on December 31 and will be valid for 6 months.
According to for 2019, imports from Turkey to Armenia amounted to about $ 260 million. The ban will come into force on December 31 and, according to the deputy minister, this is the reasonable time that will allow Armenian economic entities to reorganize to ensure imports from new markets.

[EXPrompt]

I'm not talking about that, the decision on the Azerbaijan-Nakhichevan transport corridor .. This will increase the trade influence of Turkey not only even in Armenia, there is already a more direct trade route to Kazakhstan.

[Seal]

They already have a good railroad from Turkey to Baku via Georgia. The Kars-Tbilisi-Baku railway corridor was implemented on the basis of the Azerbaijani-Georgian-Turkish interstate agreement signed in 2007. The project began in 2008, and the opening ceremony for freight traffic along the corridor took place on October 30, 2017. At the same time, the existing railway network was reconstructed between the Georgian station Akhalkalaki and Baku, and a new line, 105 km long, was built from Akhalkalaki to Kars.

[GKA72]

this corridor is not only unblocking Armenia, but also the termination of transit through Georgia. The path is shortened by 450 km.

[EXPrompt]

You were definitely told before me. But I'll decode ..
Many people want to throw Georgia, as a state strongly connected with the USA, out of any cargo and infrastructure projects. just the same Azerbaijan and Turkey.

The new railway and auto road along the Nakhichevan-Baku corridor is a breakthrough for them.

[rotfuks]

The phrase ... .. "to make certain concessions in recognizing the mass casualties among Armenians at the beginning of the last century" ... ... is very symbolic. A century has passed, but some people still have an ineradicable desire to fiddle about the recognition of mass victims and cut money on this topic. And there will be no end and edge to this. First, admit the mass casualties of a century ago. Then recognize the mass casualties among Armenians in 2020. The desire to parasitize on the victims of their people is very typical.

[Anar]

Quote: rotfuks

The phrase ... .. "to make certain concessions in recognizing the mass casualties among Armenians at the beginning of the last century" ... ... is very symbolic. A century has passed, but some people still have an ineradicable desire to fiddle about the recognition of mass victims and cut money on this topic. And there will be no end and edge to this. First, admit the mass casualties of a century ago. Then recognize the mass casualties among Armenians in 2020. The desire to parasitize on the victims of their people is very typical.

I will say more, this is called, to dance on the bones of their ancestors.

[Seal]

Quote: lonely

based on a 3000 year old map

Moreover, these "3 millennial maps" are drawn in modern geographic projections

[Seal]

Quote: saigon

The first mentions of the Turks and then east of Altai 500 AD

Do you have these "references" in documentary historical sources? Or as usual?

[Seal]

Quote: Thrifty

They would ask Erdogad if the Turkish military had a hand in destroying our helicopter in Karabakh!

And if the investigation nevertheless reveals that this is the work of the Armenian DRG or Azerbaijanis recruited by the Armenian special services, to whom will you sing the waste?

[tagil]

And who will carry out the investigation, "identical brothers"? In this case, I would not be surprised that the helicopter was shot down by the Russians themselves, recruited by the Armenian special services, who were recruited by the Azerbaijani special services, and the latter were recruited by the Turkish special services, but the Turks were recruited by the Russian special services.

[Seal]

In any case, the results of the investigation will be submitted to us. And we will decide whether to accept them or not. So, wait and see.

[GKA72]

Yeah, and Aliyev, did she endure it, take someone else's blame on herself.

[Anar]

Yeah, and Aliyev, did she endure it, take someone else's blame on herself.

Most likely, he was shot down by the Armenians by mistake, immediately Mr. Putin called Aliyev to take this issue upon himself. The reason is simple, not to give a reason for foreign forces to cause discord in the already difficult situation in Armenia.
Pay attention on the same evening, literally a couple of hours later, Armenia signed a surrender. They did not use this opportunity to embroil Russia and Azerbaijan.
Watch the speech of Putin and Aliyev literally 2 hours after the incident. Aliyev said that Putin supported him in every possible way.
If Azerbaijan had been shot down, then Putin would not have been so polite with Aliyev, he would have expressed everything there in person.

[GKA72]

I have no words. I will believe that Aliyev took the blame for Erdogan, and here for Pashinyan Don't be funny. Everything was decided before the helicopter. The main one who does not benefit from this is Erdogan. It turned out that Aliyev threw him, Geidarych was krasavchik, the Turks helped, let's goodbye, now the Russians are here.

[Anar]

Putin drives, Aliyev will not refuse him.

[Hello from Baku]

Quote: Seal

Quote: EXPrompt

And soon it will receive a transport corridor towards the Caspian Sea for its goods.

And, what, before was it not? Where, then, are there so many Turkish goods in Armenia. And Azerbaijani, by the way, too. https://vk.com/wall-33475436_795940
The Government of Armenia, by its Decision No. 1708-N of October 20, 2020, imposed a temporary ban on the import of final consumption goods of Turkish origin. The ban will come into force on December 31 and will be valid for 6 months.
According to for 2019, imports from Turkey to Armenia amounted to about $ 260 million. The ban will come into force on December 31 and, according to the deputy minister, this is the reasonable time that will allow Armenian economic entities to reorganize to ensure imports from new markets.

I will say more, even the uniform for the Armenian army was purchased in Turkey, such is the irony.

[Andobor]

Armenia won the same - it threw off the burden of problems of retention of practically unpopulated and underutilized territories, which it itself did not claim, and could not surrender them only for socio-political reasons. Moreover, most of the territories actually populated by Armenians remained behind them.

[Seal]

Quote: GKA72

Aliyev that, it turns out, it turns out, to take on someone else's blame.

What else did you endure? On the contrary. The process of preparing a ceasefire agreement was under way. The negotiations are, of course, difficult.
And then such a case - our helicopter was shot down. Pashinyan falls into the knees of our President because he understands that if it is announced that the helicopter was shot down by the Armenians, not only Karabakh, but also half of Armenia itself will have to be given. Vladimir Vladimirovich is also not interested in the complete destruction of Armenia. So he undertook to persuade Aliyev to take the blame. For this, Pashinyan handed over much more than he was going to hand over before receiving the news of the downing of our helicopter.

[lvov_aleksey]

no one there won !!!!!!!!
ps even Russia, to persuade idiots is more expensive (how many fighters have already lost). If anyone thinks differently put yourself a plus.

[Seal]

Quote: EXPrompt

Georgia, as a state strongly associated with the United States

In comparison with Armenia, Georgia, one can say, is not connected with the United States at all.
At least no Georgian leader has received the medal that Sargsyan received during his 2011 official visit to the United States. Ellis Island Medal. This is the island on which the French gift stands. The medal is public, but recognized by the US Congress and (as they say) is highly respected. Awarded "For special services in the development of relations of a particular country with the United States."
Yes, in fact, Sargsyan is still the first and only president of a foreign country to be awarded such a medal.