Military Review

But father resisted, what's next: how can events develop in Belarus

105
But father resisted, what's next: how can events develop in Belarus

The Maidan scenario in Belarus proved to be ineffective: Alexander Lukashenko turned out to be a much tougher nut to crack than his Ukrainian former colleague Viktor Yanukovych, and the Belarusian opposition had less strength than Ukrainian nationalists and Westernizers. Relying on the unconditional support of the Belarusian security forces, "but father" practically sorted out the protests in Minsk and other cities of the country. The intensity of passions subsided, and now it is already clear that Lukashenka has retained power, but for how long and how can Belarus develop further?


No matter how strong the ruler was Alexander Grigorievich, but the years take their toll. Like all of us, the "father" is not getting younger, which means that sooner or later, he will have to think about a successor, about who to transfer power to.

Actually, Belarus now has two paths - with Russia or against Russia. It is unlikely that the new head of state will succeed in maintaining an autonomous "father's course": neither Moscow nor the West will allow this. Therefore, the events in the republic can only be called a dress rehearsal of the upheavals that may await it after Lukashenka leaves the presidency.

It is clear that the pro-Western opposition will not stop its activity and will not reduce, if only for reasons of the need to work off the funds that were spent on it. But they also lack real opportunities to change the political system in Belarus, as the events of the summer and autumn of 2020 showed.

Therefore, the development of events in the near future will most likely look as follows: opposition leaders are in exile, continue their information policy against Lukashenka, and their electorate in Belarus itself periodically holds regular pickets and rallies without any clear result. But for a more distant future, there may be a different forecast: Lukashenka leaves the post of head of state either of his own free will or for physical reasons, and then the West tries to push its own person to the presidency in the republic.

It is not at all necessary that it will be a representative of the opposition. Most likely, they will look for a “weak link” in the team of Lukashenka himself, as was the case in other countries where “orange revolutions” or civil wars took place. Take the example of the same Ukraine: most of the generals and senior officers of the armed forces, security services, and internal affairs bodies remained at their posts and acted in the interests of the new government, no less zealously than they had previously served Yanukovych and their own interests.

In Belarus, the siloviki are from a slightly different test, but this does not mean that there is no certain circle of people ready to reformat the country's policy. The USA, Poland, Lithuania will make every effort to unite street opposition and unstable officials into a single fist. And here it is very important how Russia will show itself, whether it will allow replacing Lukashenka with a person whose policy can make a “western turn” or not.

The loss of Belarus could become a very serious problem for Russia, and it is in Moscow's interests to prevent such a development of events. It is already worth looking for those people surrounded by Lukashenka who could follow a pro-Russian course and maintain friendly relations with Russia.

The only problem is that there are not so many strong personalities in the environment of the “father”: like other authoritarian rulers, for years he cleaned the ruling elite from potential rivals, hoping that one of his sons would be the successor. But the latter option seems, if not fantastic, then short-lived, which requires relying on other political figures, and in their absence - to grow them "from scratch."
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  1. New Year day
    New Year day 15 December 2020 09: 30
    +7
    Luke awaits Biden's rise to power. He will try to establish contact with him as opposed to Russia and continue his multi-vector approach. It is clear that he does not want to be a pensioner in Russia, and he also needs security guarantees. Luka's departure is a matter of time and he is preparing an alternate airfield for himself.
    1. Civil
      Civil 15 December 2020 09: 33
      +5
      Lukashenko is a grated kalach, he sees a "multi-vector" path, he wants to go to Russia only as a president. And if it doesn't work out, it will twist its tail.

      PS. There is also a "pro-Moscow" opposition in Belarus.
      1. apro
        apro 15 December 2020 09: 50
        -17%
        Quote: Civil
        He wants Russia only as a president.

        And why not?
        1. Paragraph Epitafievich Y.
          Paragraph Epitafievich Y. 15 December 2020 10: 28
          +15
          Quote: apro
          And why not?

          because - no. Whether this redneck is good or bad on my collective farm is not for me to judge, this is the business of the Belarusians, and I don’t want to see him in my country. Why do we need this part-nomenclature fossil in the 21st century? Do you still dream that he blinds you with "USSR 2.0"? Yes nafig your wet dreams.
          1. apro
            apro 15 December 2020 10: 34
            -12%
            Quote: Paragraph Epitafievich Y.
            Is this redneck good or bad on his collective farm

            Zero exactly your president.
            Quote: Paragraph Epitafievich Y.
            Yes nafig your wet dreams.

            Yes nafig. Together with rf. Will finally grunted yes figs with her ...
            1. Paragraph Epitafievich Y.
              Paragraph Epitafievich Y. 15 December 2020 10: 46
              -1
              Quote: apro
              Zero exactly your president.

              I did not vote for him. Even without my voice, they will draw him in abundance.
              Quote: apro
              Yes nafig. Together with rf. Will finally grunted yes figs with her ...

              will certainly grunt to the chomping of your wet dreams about resuscitation of the Union.
              1. apro
                apro 15 December 2020 10: 48
                -11%
                Quote: Paragraph Epitafievich Y.
                I did not vote for him.

                But how do you drag him for him ... do not worry, he is definitely yours, a real Russian president ...
                1. Paragraph Epitafievich Y.
                  Paragraph Epitafievich Y. 15 December 2020 11: 34
                  +4
                  Quote: apro
                  he is definitely yours, a real Russian president ...

                  he is as mine as yours, dear. Ibonki was elected by voting. And he will be taken out of power on a gun carriage, because grandfather was told that "if not him, then who?" And he, along the way, came to believe in it himself, demonstrating episodically "fatherly" manual control. Well, of course - we are a leader-oriented nation, we need a face on TV, and better - so that it doesn't change for a long time.
                  1. apro
                    apro 15 December 2020 12: 22
                    -6
                    Quote: Paragraph Epitafievich Y.
                    he is as mine as yours, dear.

                    Well, it's not mine for sure. The goal-oriented people with him are somewhat different. But for the Russians, the very thing is. Lies and everyone claps to him. For the right guys it’s worth it. He doesn’t let him. He doesn’t let him share with anyone. He goes to church with holy people to communicate ... and allows drinking vodka and stealing .. if you can.
                    1. Paragraph Epitafievich Y.
                      Paragraph Epitafievich Y. 15 December 2020 12: 39
                      0
                      Quote: apro
                      Well, not mine, that's for sure

                      and why are you giving it to me then? He understood one thing - you cannot fight theft - lead and build a system around it. He acts as the guarantor of the availability of the feeder for a certain circle - everything is simple.
                      1. apro
                        apro 15 December 2020 12: 42
                        -9
                        Quote: Paragraph Epitafievich Y.
                        and why are you giving it to me then?

                        You yourself slip him by supporting his policy against Belarus, against socialism.
                      2. Paragraph Epitafievich Y.
                        Paragraph Epitafievich Y. 15 December 2020 12: 50
                        +5
                        Quote: apro
                        against socialism.

                        what the fuck is socialism? Are all phantom pains disturbing? Or what, some kind of socialism in Belarus dreamed of?
                      3. apro
                        apro 15 December 2020 12: 57
                        -4
                        Quote: Paragraph Epitafievich Y.
                        Or what, some kind of socialism in Belarus dreamed of?

                        Yes, at least much more than in Russia.
                      4. Paragraph Epitafievich Y.
                        Paragraph Epitafievich Y. 15 December 2020 13: 00
                        +4
                        and in S. Korea it is even more. Is it desirable to go there?
                  2. My doctor
                    My doctor 15 December 2020 17: 31
                    +2
                    Quote: apro
                    You yourself slip him by supporting his policy against Belarus, against socialism.

                    Is there socialism in the republic :)?
                    You are hinting at the fact that he banned the exit from the Republic of Belarus (of course, because of the covid), along the way, ordering that the law enforcement agencies would calculate and catch non-working citizens and employ them.
      2. My doctor
        My doctor 15 December 2020 17: 24
        +2
        Quote: apro
        Zero exactly your president.

        Lukashenka was the first to reset your term.
    2. blackice
      blackice 15 December 2020 10: 57
      0
      Good or bad this redneck in his collective farm - not for me to judge

      Already condemned.
      Or the word redneck has some other meaning hidden by you?
    3. lelik613
      lelik613 15 December 2020 18: 30
      +3
      For the USSR-2, his hands are too crooked
  2. New Year day
    New Year day 15 December 2020 10: 47
    +2
    Quote: apro
    And why not?

    because it is impossible in principle
  • New Year day
    New Year day 15 December 2020 09: 59
    +2
    Quote: Civil
    way, he wants to go to Russia only as a president.

    This is not real in principle and therefore not negotiable
  • Asad
    Asad 15 December 2020 09: 37
    +10
    I don't know how about Biden, but something needs to be addressed with the economy! The endless donation to Russia cannot last forever, things themselves are not very good!
    1. dorz
      dorz 15 December 2020 10: 31
      +9
      It seems to me that 21 years will be even more "interesting", it is no coincidence that the law on the immunity of the president and his family was passed. sad
      1. iouris
        iouris 15 December 2020 13: 40
        0
        Quote: dorz
        the law on immunity was not accidentally adopted

        Well, will you pass the law on the inviolability of borders, so that the armed forces, ready to go to war and inflict unacceptable damage on the aggressor, are not needed?
        In addition, an analysis of the current legislation shows that in any law adopted at the end of any year, changes are soon introduced, sometimes very significant.
      2. Olkhovsky
        Olkhovsky 15 December 2020 19: 55
        -1
        How this law was adopted, so if something is canceled by a revolutionary decree. winked
    2. Paragraph Epitafievich Y.
      Paragraph Epitafievich Y. 15 December 2020 11: 23
      +1
      Quote: ASAD
      something needs to be decided!

      what exactly to decide? You will not be full of the chimera of the "Russian world" and "enemies around". Allies must be bought and paid for their upkeep. There are no means - lock yourself in your borders and suck your paw, fighting off the stronger ones. Dumb with tunnel vision scold Lukashenka for being multi-vector? Does he have a way out?
      1. soloveyav
        soloveyav 15 December 2020 12: 26
        +2
        Only buy under clear concessions - like a military base, recognition of something, the sale of part of the industry to Russia, and not just give money as it is now.
        1. Paragraph Epitafievich Y.
          Paragraph Epitafievich Y. 15 December 2020 12: 32
          +1
          it's a bargaining question. The meaning is unchanged.
          1. soloveyav
            soloveyav 15 December 2020 12: 39
            +2
            To bargain, you need to be ready to create problems in case of refusal - and not the current bleating about respect for sovereignty. There should be clear options - either you are with Russia, then you have money, gas, weapons, and in return for concessions, or you are against it, but then you have neither money nor gas, we will support your opposition, and maybe we will find some separatists. So that the local potentates understand - not being friends with Russia is very expensive and painful, more painful than with Europe or the United States.
            1. Paragraph Epitafievich Y.
              Paragraph Epitafievich Y. 15 December 2020 12: 47
              0
              This dumb colonial approach would have been good in the golden age of the East India Company. And now the 21st century is in the yard, and you won't be able to recruit “allies” with ultimatums.
              Now people need to be softer. And look at the questions broader.
              (C)
              1. soloveyav
                soloveyav 15 December 2020 17: 40
                0
                Allies can be countries with which there are no territorial and national problems, and it is stupidity to grow at the expense of Russia what has grown out of the national policy of the USSR. Russia’s allies can be, for example, Hungary, the Czech Republic, etc., even the United States in principle, but not Belarus, Ukraine, Kazakhstan within its present borders. It's like Ireland and Great Britain are friends, or Serbia and Kosovo. It is necessary either to resolve this issue by the annexation of parts of these countries (perhaps even a large part), or to conduct population exchanges like what was with Poland after WW2. Which by the way is not a fact that it will help - Poland and Russia still dislike each other, although there are no particular formal claims.
              2. lelik613
                lelik613 15 December 2020 18: 37
                +2
                The approach is simple: Either our person in the government, the organization, the base, the factory, or a shovel in the ass. The bow is too expensive for us.
      2. vitvit123
        vitvit123 15 December 2020 15: 08
        0
        To join its territory to the Russian Federation and to live in abundance at full boarding house of the Russian Federation and even their stolen for 1000 years is enough .. no, bad way out for a person in years?
      3. Olkhovsky
        Olkhovsky 15 December 2020 20: 00
        +2
        It is much smarter not to buy allies and others, but to be an economically attractive country, a center of attraction. But this is not for the senile minds of our Kremlin elders. It would be easier for them, according to the templates of the 90s. They are not capable of more.
    3. NEOZ
      NEOZ 15 December 2020 16: 55
      0
      Quote: ASAD
      things themselves are not very good!

      and who is easy now?
  • NDR-791
    NDR-791 15 December 2020 09: 40
    +2
    It is already worth looking for those people in Lukashenka's entourage who could follow the pro-Russian course and maintain friendly relations with Russia.
    I think, having pierced on Janek, ours have already found someone. But the change technology is of interest. What scenario will be? "Theirs" we have already seen, the move is behind us. And it is useless for him to go to the west - both industry and agriculture are imprisoned for us. So let's see - he is preparing a nychka for himself or at least somehow thinking about the country
    1. astepanov
      astepanov 15 December 2020 14: 14
      +1
      It is already worth looking for those people in Lukashenka's entourage who could follow the pro-Russian course and maintain friendly relations with Russia.
      The only problem is that there are not so many strong personalities surrounded by the "father": like other authoritarian rulers, for years he cleaned the ruling elite from potential rivals
      It would be more correct to address this to the Russian president. And the current course of our elites can be called pro-Russian only with some stretch.
    2. NEOZ
      NEOZ 15 December 2020 16: 56
      -1
      Quote: NDR-791
      the move is behind us.

      onion in the new year will announce everything ...
      Quote: NDR-791
      personally prepares a nychka for himself or at least somehow thinks about the country

      one does not contradict the other
  • tihonmarine
    tihonmarine 15 December 2020 10: 07
    +3
    Quote: Silvestr
    Luke awaits Biden's rise to power. Will try to establish contact with him as opposed to Russia

    That Trump, that Biden, for the dad, nothing will change. The policy of the United States towards Belarus is the same as towards Ukraine, to destroy-to piss off-start chaos, “free moose and people will walk through the forests and swamps of Belarus”.
    1. New Year day
      New Year day 15 December 2020 10: 48
      +7
      Quote: tihonmarine
      The US policy towards Belarus is the same as towards Ukraine, ruin-make-angry-start chaos

      think Luka is worried about it? Personal safety and preservation of the acquired "back-breaking labor" are important to him.
      1. NEOZ
        NEOZ 15 December 2020 16: 58
        0
        Quote: Silvestr
        preservation of the acquired "back-breaking labor".

        ah, do not envy ... only you earned everything honestly, the rest are thieves ... everything is clear with you ...
  • Maxim L
    Maxim L 15 December 2020 11: 14
    +7
    Of course it will continue. Only it is unlikely to work out already. He's done too much in the past six months. All of his present power rests only on animal fear. The whole question is how much more Russia will feed him. Either he will bend completely under Russia or not. These are the main questions
    1. Fan-fan
      Fan-fan 15 December 2020 12: 35
      +2
      Well, he has been bent for 20 years and he has not caved in, so one cannot hope that Putin will drive him out. Putin will save him in any case, as Yanyka saved without any conditions.
    2. NEOZ
      NEOZ 15 December 2020 17: 00
      -1
      Quote: Maxim L
      Either he will bend completely under Russia or not. These are the main questions

      are you a Russophobe?
      1. Maxim L
        Maxim L 11 February 2021 13: 41
        0
        I have a phobia in front of the ugly Russian government. If Russia had a normal government, then I would not be against joining Russia. With what we have now, you won't go far. How can you live so badly in a country with so many resources?
        1. NEOZ
          NEOZ 11 February 2021 14: 38
          0
          Quote: Maxim L
          I have a phobia in front of the ugly Russian government.

          what is the ugliness? in which country is power not ugly?
          Quote: Maxim L
          How can you live so badly in a country with so many resources?

          it's not about resources, but about the population ... 149 million is very little.
  • iouris
    iouris 15 December 2020 13: 35
    +1
    Quote: Silvestr
    Luke awaits Biden's rise to power.

    So he waited. Everyone waited. Probably the point is not in Lukashenka, but in the fact that the post-Soviet space is degrading, and not being shaped into something high quality. It can't go on that long.
  • NEOZ
    NEOZ 15 December 2020 16: 54
    -1
    Quote: Silvestr
    Luke awaits Biden's rise to power. He will try to establish contact with him as opposed to Russia and continue his multi-vector approach.

    and why?
    Quote: Silvestr
    It is clear that he does not want to be a pensioner in Russia, and he also needs security guarantees.

    The West has guarantees? .... don't tell me!
    Quote: Silvestr
    he doesn't want to be a pensioner in Russia

    what's so terrible?
  • Onyx
    Onyx 15 December 2020 09: 33
    0
    In the near future, the task for Lukashenka is to prepare a successor, work it out until the end of his term and leave as an honorary president.
    1. 210ox
      210ox 15 December 2020 09: 50
      +5
      Perhaps this is more of a task for the Kremlin ... How long can you give up positions or fiddle with capricious ones?
    2. Rurikovich
      Rurikovich 15 December 2020 10: 29
      +12
      He will definitely not be honorable against the background of total lies No. ... A couple of years ago I had to think about these. The train left
    3. New Year day
      New Year day 15 December 2020 10: 49
      +4
      Quote: Onyx
      and leave as an honorary president.

      where to go? It is not a fact that his successor will come to power and if he does, he will hold on
    4. Vladimir61
      Vladimir61 15 December 2020 10: 53
      +3
      Quote: Onyx
      In the near future, the task for Lukashenka is to prepare a successor

      It is better to consolidate society, on the basis of a constant course of real integration with Russia. There are not so many stubborn, pro-Western horses, but Lukashenko is dissatisfied, impulsive and constantly maneuvering in the world political situation. enough. The rest will come by itself!
    5. Maxim L
      Maxim L 15 December 2020 11: 15
      +6
      He will never be honorary. After the events of the last six months, most of the people absolutely hate him.
    6. iouris
      iouris 15 December 2020 16: 19
      0
      Quote: Onyx
      task for Lukashenka to prepare a receiver

      Who can give him a task like that? Lukashenko is Belarus. There won't be Lukashenka, there won't be ... I don't want to ...
    7. NEOZ
      NEOZ 15 December 2020 17: 00
      0
      Quote: Onyx
      prepare the receiver,

      What for?
  • sevtrash
    sevtrash 15 December 2020 09: 43
    0
    The division of power and assets awaits Belarus. It will be possible for someone to grab them if Belarus follows the path of Ukraine, that is, against Russia. Then the United States and others like them will allow Lukashenko's successor and his team to divide the country into their own. It is quite possible that Lukashenka has already identified such a person and this division will be under his control. There are not many chances for Belarus to join Russia. The ruling circles in Belarus will get more buns from the anti-Russian orientation, so they will go for the trough. Not to mention the opposition already fed by the West. Not to mention the national herd, which, naturally, wants a good life and sees an example of such, rather, in the West (Poland at least), and not in the East (Russia is under sanctions). So Belarus is lost
    1. Maxim L
      Maxim L 15 December 2020 11: 17
      0
      Yes, I lost. Or the West will divide us. Or Russian corrupt and stealing officials. And I don't even know which is worse.
      1. iouris
        iouris 15 December 2020 16: 19
        0
        Quote: Maxim L
        Or the West will divide us.

        Already.
      2. NEOZ
        NEOZ 15 December 2020 17: 01
        0
        Quote: Maxim L
        And I don't even know which is worse.

        a! Russophobe!!!!!!! got caught !!!!
        1. Maxim L
          Maxim L 11 February 2021 13: 39
          0
          Why not be afraid of you? Except for Moscow, St. Petersburg and a couple of other cities, everything is in full ... e. The infrastructure is poor, the services are poor, the quality of life is poor. And this despite the fact that resources in the country are piled high. And all because officials steal everything and consider the population as slaves. And, worst of all, the population doesn't mind. So why not be afraid of you? The further away from you the better
          1. NEOZ
            NEOZ 11 February 2021 14: 48
            0
            Quote: Maxim L
            The further from you the better

            this is for the Ukrainians .... everything is there as you want ...
  • rocket757
    rocket757 15 December 2020 09: 50
    +1
    Everything is too veiled, from any side ...
    So it looks like another agreement with, which does not inspire in any way, in the light of all the previous events.
    1. cniza
      cniza 15 December 2020 12: 46
      +2
      It is very likely that the Kremlin does not know where the curve will lead, it's bad ...
      1. rocket757
        rocket757 15 December 2020 14: 07
        +1
        What remains for us ... lie on the sofas and vibrate in time with the events.
        1. cniza
          cniza 15 December 2020 15: 26
          +2
          Yes, we have no other, just observe ...
          1. rocket757
            rocket757 15 December 2020 18: 42
            +1
            The top ones in our countries have raked up all the functions for themselves ... that's just they are NOT ALLOWED to carry out successfully! Because we have so many stocks and imperfections, it’s just a problem!
            1. cniza
              cniza 15 December 2020 21: 11
              +2
              Yes, it is not just not given, but it is not possible for one to cover all this ...
              1. rocket757
                rocket757 15 December 2020 21: 17
                +1
                Quote: cniza
                it is not possible to cover all this alone.

                One does not need. He has helpers darm m m who eat bread with butter / caviar, and what kind of return they have ???
    2. NEOZ
      NEOZ 15 December 2020 17: 03
      0
      Quote: rocket757
      which does not inspire in any way,

      what would inspire you?
      1. rocket757
        rocket757 15 December 2020 18: 35
        +1
        Real unity of fraternal peoples.
  • apro
    apro 15 December 2020 09: 55
    0
    Actually, Belarus now has two paths - with Russia or against Russia

    Where to move from Russia? To a bright capitalistic future along the ruins of its own industry? Belarus is such a powerful power that can do something to Russia? To take mother oil and mother gas from the Russian rich?
  • tihonmarine
    tihonmarine 15 December 2020 10: 01
    0
    besides, the Belarusian opposition had less strength than the Ukrainian nationalists and Westernizers.
    There was also much less money and resources. On the example of the "aid" plundered in Ukraine, the Belarusian opposition received less.
    1. Fan-fan
      Fan-fan 15 December 2020 12: 41
      +6
      The Belarusians did not have the same hatred for the Russians that the Ukrainians had. And the Belarusians acted softly and within the law, and the Ukrainians on the Maidan immediately staged a harsh lawlessness, up to the shooting. This is the main difference between the peoples of Ukraine and Belarus.
  • svoit
    svoit 15 December 2020 10: 10
    0
    ... for reasons of the need to work off the funds that were spent on it
    but haven't they already been worked out? In my opinion, the west should even stay.
  • Pavel57
    Pavel57 15 December 2020 10: 12
    +2
    Quote: ASAD
    I don't know how about Biden, but something needs to be addressed with the economy! The endless donation to Russia cannot last forever, things themselves are not very good!

    BR revenues will inevitably fall in the event of any vector in politics.
    And the question of the transformation of property in all sectors is hanging.
  • ALARI
    ALARI 15 December 2020 10: 15
    +8
    For Belarus Lukashenko is the same as the West and Russia. Going to the West will be like in Ukraine, dismantling the economy, half of the country working there. Will go to Russia, the economy is under the control of our bourgeoisie, optimization of everything and everyone, half of the country is already working in Russia. I want to remind you of wild capitalism.
    1. tihonmarine
      tihonmarine 15 December 2020 12: 47
      +1
      Quote: ALARI
      I would like to remind you of wild capitalism.

      Here you can’t argue with you. I can only add a wild oligarchic one.
    2. vitvit123
      vitvit123 15 December 2020 15: 13
      +2
      And in the whole "progressive" world, not wild capitalism?
      1. ALARI
        ALARI 15 December 2020 15: 21
        +1
        Capitalism, but the other is progressive. There is its own population (which is working), not robbed and not driven into poverty. Or have you not noticed a recent rise in prices?
        1. vitvit123
          vitvit123 15 December 2020 19: 06
          0
          To be honest, I haven't noticed the rise in prices lately, as it was not before that, and there is no time to go shopping. Although I believe 100%, tk. many say that savings are being used up faster. And capitalism is the same everywhere.
          1. ALARI
            ALARI 16 December 2020 08: 00
            +1
            Somehow, the president noticed and was very surprised. Capitalism may be the same, but we have some kind of, let's raise prices, grab a piece, and then at least the grass won't grow. We have different capitalism with the West, different.
            1. vitvit123
              vitvit123 16 December 2020 08: 30
              +1
              As for me, it is the same everywhere, there can be no humane capitalism. People running business are different ...
  • maxim k.
    maxim k. 15 December 2020 10: 24
    +4
    "There are no strong personalities surrounded by dad at all." As can be seen from the latest "leaks" of negotiations, the Belarusian bureaucratic "elite" and "siloviki" are simply morally degraded. The consequences of the dictatorship ALWAYS and EVERYWHERE are chaos and anarchy after the departure of the dictator, how he will "go away" is another question. A dictatorship only needs complete submission and sycophancy, not an opinion different from the whims of the dictator.
  • nikvic46
    nikvic46 15 December 2020 10: 29
    +5
    Lukashenka will not bow to the West. But he will not rush headlong into an alliance with Russia. He's not blind. He sees both the positive aspects of our country and the negative ones. And this is, first of all, domestic politics. This is where there will be long disputes. Where he will go is a big question. Apparently it will drift.
    1. awdrgy
      awdrgy 15 December 2020 14: 20
      0
      He is waiting He needs to wait Unfortunately, other options would be fatal for the people And this is not one hundred percent, but still at least some chance
    2. Lycan
      Lycan 15 December 2020 16: 53
      0
      Apparently it will drift.

      Is it because the dilemma is so deep that he cannot decide?
      And he probably has not worked out a course on the "third way".
  • Mykhalych
    Mykhalych 15 December 2020 10: 36
    -2
    Tikhanovskaya's hopes for tangible assistance from the EU did not materialize. In which she admitted: "... I used to think that Europe is close and great, and the leaders of European countries are so strong that they will be able to influence what is happening and “will not sit idly by”. However, in practice, it turned out that these leaders are "cautious" and "look back at Russia."- Someone does not believe that RUSSIA is feared and feared ..
    And that "child of Chernobyl" has eyes and hopes for Biden.
  • soloveyav
    soloveyav 15 December 2020 12: 34
    -1
    The main problem of the Belarusian pro-European opposition is fear of forceful methods. Those. they have no trump cards against the Crimean option. But it was possible in August - to demolish the AHL immediately after the start of suppressing the protests under the pretext of protecting the citizens of the SG, intercepting the control of the protests - at that time they were purely against Lukashenka, and not for Europe. And what to do now the question is too voluminous.
  • cniza
    cniza 15 December 2020 12: 45
    +1
    The only problem is that there are not so many strong personalities in the environment of the “father”: like other authoritarian rulers, for years he cleaned the ruling elite from potential rivals, hoping that one of his sons would be the successor. But the latter option seems, if not fantastic, then short-lived, which requires relying on other political figures, and in their absence - to grow them "from scratch."


    He has no time to speak at all, if he continues to multi-vector, and especially to flirt with the United States, then he will not be in power for long ...
    1. awdrgy
      awdrgy 15 December 2020 14: 25
      0
      He won for some time, so it is there, but not as much as we would like. And there are still at least one spare and one hundred percent options for playing with the West.
  • parusnik
    parusnik 15 December 2020 14: 44
    0
    After Lukashenko leaves, Russia will lose Belarus from the word at all, not immediately, gradually. Let me explain, almost all interstate unions to which Russia is a member, have shown their unviability, the first example is the Union State of Russia and Belarus, many words, almost nothing, the second: the CIS, war between its participants: Armenia and Azerbaijan ..
    1. vitvit123
      vitvit123 15 December 2020 15: 18
      -1
      Well, the union state was created by Luka and was created not for the unification of the people, but for pumping out - begging for money and resources from the Russian Federation, therefore, the non-viability in this union is not because of the Russian Federation, but because of Oka's meanness ..
      1. awdrgy
        awdrgy 15 December 2020 17: 53
        0
        What are the fascinating documents? The people do not have resources, just like the abstract Russian Federation. There are specific people who own resources or who dispose of them, to be more precise. And the unity of the people is a separate topic. with such weak points, he would not have come to power, but he would not have lasted a couple of months)
        1. vitvit123
          vitvit123 15 December 2020 19: 11
          0
          After the "fashikh proofs" there was no desire to answer, but I read it longer and smiled .. the question: when did the people own the resources?
          Then the conclusions are not populist, but seem (to you) populist only because your humble servant deliberately expresses them at a primitive level, in the simplest words. This is done for a reason, and if you do not see it, then .....
          1. awdrgy
            awdrgy 15 December 2020 22: 14
            +1
            Yes, simple, but I'm against this concept At the moment, I think Lukashenko is the most worthy leader in the post-Soviet space. Time will of course show, and yes it does not work in his favor, but what to do
            1. vitvit123
              vitvit123 16 December 2020 07: 43
              0
              Your right ... I don't even want to speak for Luka, for me he is a scoundrel, in the strongest expression.
    2. NEOZ
      NEOZ 15 December 2020 17: 11
      0
      Quote: parusnik
      the first example of the Union State of Russia and Belarus

      what did you expect from this union?
      Quote: parusnik
      CIS, war between its participants: Armenia and Azerbaijan

      and what? What does it change?
      ps
      The EAEU is operating quite successfully, by the way!
  • BAI
    BAI 15 December 2020 15: 33
    +2
    and in their absence - to grow them "from scratch".

    There are no active figures, and there is no time to grow new ones.
  • krvl
    krvl 15 December 2020 15: 37
    +2
    Just do not forget - he is a criminal and a maniac, leading Belarus into the abyss of poverty, chaos and conflict with its citizens, Russia and gayrope. And having remembered these basic facts, then you can talk about anything. If the desire remains.
    1. NEOZ
      NEOZ 15 December 2020 17: 06
      -1
      Quote: krvl
      Just do not forget - he is a criminal and a maniac, leading Belarus into the abyss of poverty, chaos and conflict with its citizens

      yes yes .... like Putin, by the way!
      and like Stalin ... like many successful leaders of the Republic of Ingushetia / USSR / RF .... understandable ...
      dreaming of apple plantations in Poland?
    2. awdrgy
      awdrgy 15 December 2020 17: 56
      0
      That's exactly what you think Only yourself))
  • Alexander K_2
    Alexander K_2 15 December 2020 19: 23
    +3
    One smart one said: you can lean on bayonets, but you CAN'T sit on them! The "self-elected" will leave very soon, and it is not a secret for anyone, and it is in the interests of Russia that instead of him there would be, if not a pro-Russian protégé, then at least a person hostile to Russia. A lot now depends on the leadership of Russia. In Belarus itself, people are simply Tired of the established UNLIMITED. The population is not for Tikhanovskaya or anyone else, not against Russia or Europe, people simply and clearly say - LEAVE, LEAVE and We ourselves will decide Where to move, in one unanimous - Belarus does not need FRIENDSHIP against anyone else, the people of Belarus are ready to be friends with EVERYONE who respects their opinion !!! Russia and Belarus, since it happened - it turned out 2 (two) states, then let them be friendly to each other.
  • fa2998
    fa2998 15 December 2020 20: 52
    0
    Quote: apro
    Quote: Civil
    He wants Russia only as a president.

    And why not?

    Belarus has Russia, so you can live, but Russia does not have such a rich sponsor. hi
  • Pavel57
    Pavel57 16 December 2020 13: 08
    0
    Quote: ALARI
    Capitalism, but the other is progressive. There is its own population (which is working), not robbed and not driven into poverty.

    What are you basing these judgments on? In the States, their population is both ripped off and driven into poverty. And in fact there is slavery. In Europe, on average, I admit that the situation is still better. So the picture in the world is very different.
  • Dmitry10SPb
    Dmitry10SPb 21 December 2020 21: 01
    0
    Everything is correct if we proceed from the premise that the interests of Russia and the West are opposite, and the rivalry is getting fiercer. They are now the opposite. We will also be pardoned with the present Moses, with his successor or two, and we ourselves will one day rush to the West ahead of a screech. Our path is predetermined by our elite who are already there. In the countries of Eastern Europe, they all rushed to Western standards together. And we let the best go forward. The elite are treated there, teach children, keep wives and mistresses, have property and money offshore. Then we will pull ourselves up. Therefore, what will happen in Belarus in the coming years is interesting, but not essential.